PLANET A comprehensive tool for forecast and appraisal of public transport schemes in the UK

12th European EMME/2 Users Conference Basel, Switzerland (22-23 May 2003)

Peter Bartlett (Jacobs Consultancy)

Presentation Summary
History of PLANET Interfaces Development of PS2002 models Crowding and Assignment procedures Validation Application Appraisal Future Development

Jacobs Consultancy
Jacobs Consultancy UK 275 staff worldwide Transport Planning Business Planning & Strategy Development Planning Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. Turnover USD 5 billion Total Staff 33,000 Consulting, Design, Construction, Operations, Maintenance Client Base: Industrial, Commercial, Government

Strategic Rail Authority (SRA) UK

Objectives of SRA Promote use of the national rail network by letting rail passenger franchises and specifying network enhancements Sponsorship and Development of Infrastructure projects Management of Freight Grants All franchise changes and enhancements must satisfy value for money criteria and be appraised using a framework agreed with Department of Transport (DfT). www.sra.gov.uk

Development

1990
PLANET 91 PLANET 99

History of PLANET model development

2000
Time

PLANET MM PLANET PS2002 PLANET STRATEGIC PLANET Model Future Development

PLANET 91
1991 National Rail Timetable 1991 Demand Geographical area covering former Network South East (NSE) rail services Assignment Model Early attempts at Distribution Model Split (DMS) model No Underground or Bus network Developed by British Rail (NSE)

PLANET 99
1997/98 National Rail timetable 1997/98 Demand Trip distribution based on 1991 data Enhanced Crowding model Elasticity approach for future year forecasts Replaced early attempts at DMS model Based on relative Generalised Time

PLANET MM
1997/98 National Rail timetable 1997/98 Demand Geographical Extension AM and Inter-Peak Time Periods London Underground Network London Bus Network Highway Network

PLANET STRATEGIC
Geographical coverage
Northern and Southern England

250 Zones 16 Hour (all-day) model Multi-Modal

Rail, Air, Car

Appropriate for Strategic tests

e.g. High Speed Line (London NE England)

NOT appropriate for specific detail

i.e. Local flows, crowding at specific location

Developed by another UK consultancy

PLANET PS2002
2001/2002 National Rail timetable
Railtrack Train Service Database (TSDB)

2001 Demand
CAPRI Ticket Sales data Segmented by Journey purpose

North and South Models

Geographical split of UK
North 1600 zones South 1400 zones

Split by Time Period

AM (07:00 09:59) Inter Peak (10:00 15:59)

Planet North and South Rail Network

Planet South Rail Network

Planet North Rail Network

PLANET South Network Summary

PLANET SUITE 2002 - Network Summaries
Model/Time Period
Planet South AM

Public Transport
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf33) 9 102 1,377 3,234 18,469 11,767 1,617 35,806 1,748,547

Highway
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) 2 0 1,377 1,857 8,256 5,112

Planet South

IP

Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf43)

9 102 1,377 3,234 18,469 11,767 1,617 35,806 1,295,119

Planet North

AM

Modes Vehicles

9 100

Modes Vehicles

2 0

PLANET North Network Summary

PLANET SUITE 2002 - Network Summaries
Total Demand (mf43) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments 1,617 35,806 1,295,119

Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC)

1,377 3,234 18,469 11,767

Model/Time Period
Planet North South AM

Public Transport
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf33) 9 100 102 1,558 1,377 882 3,234 8,900 18,469 2,042 11,767 1,142 1,617 13,885 35,806 1,151,368 1,748,547

Highway
Modes Vehicles Centroids Regular Nodes Links Links (excl CC) 2 0 1,558 1,377 1,857 13,706 8,256 5,112

Planet North South

IP

Modes Vehicles

9 100 102

Centroids Centroids Regular Nodes Regular Nodes Links Links Links (excl CC) Links (excl CC) Transit Lines Transit Lines Line Segments Transit
Transit Line Segments Total Demand (mf43) Total Demand (mf43)

1,377 1,558 3,234 882 18,469 8,900 11,767 2,042 1,617 35,806 1,098
16,215 1,295,119 683,508

Planet North

AM

Modes Vehicles

9 100

Modes Vehicles

2 0

PLANET Interfaces
INPUTS TSDB
Train Service Database

CAPRI
Computer Analysis of Passenger Revenue Information

ORCATS
Operational Research Computer Allocation of Tickets to Services

Demand matrices
Processing CAPRI data
October / November 2001 CAPRI data downloaded on detailed station-station basis Period demand factored to average winter weekday
Annual season ticket demand spread to account for monthly sales patterns Different factors applied to season, full and reduced tickets

Daily demand factored to AM / IP periods using ORCATS demand profiles, depending on

ticket type, origin / destination station types, journey length

Demand matrices
Assigning CAPRI data to zones
PLANET South station-zone distribution outside inner London based on previous PLANET models PLANET South distribution inside inner London based on iterative approach
Start with previous (1991 LATS) distribution of London trip ends from surrounding zones Inner London trip ends factored based on LUL station entries / exits counted Autumn 2001 Surrounding zone trip ends based on CAPRI data

PLANET North station-zone distribution based on zone trip generation model

Size of zone (population / employment) Distance of zone from station

Demand matrices
Segmentation by journey purpose
Full fare Reduced fare Season tickets Business Commuting Leisure / Other

Journey purpose split by ticket type Based on dominant TOC for each flow Derived from National Passenger Survey

Demand matrices (example)

Segmentation by journey purpose
26%
Full fare Reduced fare Season tickets Business

40% 34%

16%

2% 91% 6%
Commuting Leisure / Other

19% 65%

South West Trains (TOC)

Transit line / network details

Timetable details downloaded from TSDB (Train Service DataBase) file
More reliable than PIF file used previously Contains details of pick-up / set-down only stops

Train route through network calculated by shortest path

Aided by key passing points identified in TSDB Validation checks for correct links / nodes being used

Trains allocate to AM / IP periods by time at highest hierarchy station served

E.g. London terminus for London-based TOCs Alternative main stations for non-London services (defined by TOC)

Transit line / network details

New transit line codes
Based on CAPRI codes Easier identification of service groups
3rd Character = Key timing station; W = London Waterloo 1st Character = TOC; Y = South West Trains

YLWU03
U = Up

5th/6th Character = Numerical list of trains

1st/2nd Character = Service Group; YL = 6730 (Waterloo Hampton Ct / Chessington / Dorking / Guildford

4th Character = Direction;

PLANET Assignment Flow Diagram

assignment preparation copy pre-elastic result scenario

START
calc total demand assignment parameters assignment parameters

load demand & supply profiles

POST-ELASTIC ASSIGNMENTS

PRE-ELASTIC ASSIGNMENTS

calc post-ELASTIC demand uncrowded assignment delete old postelastic matrices calculate crowding true calc test gen time false calc base gen time

uncrowded assignment

calculate crowding

true

IF ITER <6 crowded assignments

IF ITER <6 crowded assignments

false

FINISH

Assignment / Crowding Procedure

Overall assignment process
Business demand Commuter demand Leisure demand

assign

assign

assign

Scenario with Business costs

sum

Scenario with Commuter costs

sum

Scenario with Leisure costs

sum

Scenario with total passenger volumes

Loading values accumulated in 6 iterations (50%,15%,10%, 10%,10%,5%)

Calculation of Business costs

Calculation of Commuter costs

Calculation of Leisure costs

Crowding function
For each segment and purpose (train / link combination in four sub-models)
Service type (x5) Journey purpose (x3) Supply profile Train capacity Modelled passenger volume (total over all journey purposes)

Calculation of ratio of volume to capacity (over 18 time slices)

Demand profile

Link type (x3)

Crowd cost parameters

Calculation of weighted average crowding cost factor for segment / purpose

Crowding function Supply profiles

Profiles for North/South models + AM/ IP Calculated from timed provision of train service capacity
As shown in passenger timetable

Different profiles reflect different types of service (in peak periods)

Flat profile: fixed formation, standard service interval
Long distance inter-urban service

Increasing profile : higher frequency services at end of peak period

Inter-urban service with business emphasis

Peaked profile: higher frequency and longer / highercapacity train formations during peak period
Commuter services

Crowding function Supply profiles

SUPPLY PROFILES (AM PEAK)
0.09

0.08

0.07

0.06

FACTOR

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.02

Inter-urban (e.g. Leeds-London) Long-Distance (e.g. Edinburgh-London) Commuter (Fixed Formation) Commuter (Some Train Lengthening) Commuter (Significant Train Lengthening) 07:00 07:10 07:20 07:30 07:40 07:50 08:00 08:10 08:20 08:30 08:40 08:50 09:00 09:10 09:20 09:30 09:40 09:50

0.01

0
TIME PERIOD

Crowding function Demand profiles

Profiles for North/South models + AM/ IP

Calculated on the basis of ORCATS demand profiles

Separate profiles for Business, Leisure, Commuter (based on profiles for Full, Reduced, Seasons)

Further refinement may be possible

But note that profiles are approximate anyway
Cover different flow types (to / from London, etc.) Cover different flow lengths

Crowding function Demand profiles

DEMAND PROFILES (AM Peak)
0.12 Business (Full Fare) Leisure (Reduced Fare) Commuting (Season Tickets) 0.1

0.08

FACTOR

0.06

0.04

0.02

0 07:00 07:10 07:20 07:30 07:40 07:50 08:00 08:10 08:20 08:30 08:40 08:50 09:00 09:10 09:20 09:30 09:40 09:50
TIME PERIOD

Crowding function cost estimates

Review of functionality of crowding model within PLANET
Concluded that form of the model appears capable of ensuring modelled train loads are limited to realistic levels Higher crowding valuation would cap loads more effectively

Review of valuation of crowding

1997 Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook SRA Research Valuation of crowding improvements on rail services Separate valuation for different service types
London-based inter-urban services London commuter services Non-London services

Crowding function cost estimates

Service type

Suggested crowding penalties for PLANET

Factors applied to in-vehicle journey time
Load Factor Sit Sit Sit Stand Stand Sit Sit Sit Stand Stand Sit Sit Sit Stand Stand 1.05 1.25 1.7 3.5 4.9 1.05 1.25 1.7 3.5 4.9 1.05 1.1 1.7 6.5 8.5 Leisure
PLANET PDFH

Business
PLANET PDFH

Commuting
PLANET PDFH

80% 100% 140% 100% London Inter-Urban 140% 80% 100% 140% 100% London Suburban 140% 80% 100% 140% 100% 140%

NonLondon

1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4

1.05 1.25 1.7 3.5 4.9 1 1.05 1.2 2.5 2.9 1.07 1.1 1.7 4 5.4

1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4 1.07 1.25 1.7 4 5.4

1 1 1 2.5 2.9 1 1.1 1.5 2.5 2.9 1 1.1 1.5 3.6 4.7

1 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 1 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.6 1 1.1 1.5 3.6 4.7

Validation of PLANET PS2002 models

Comprehensive data collection
On-train passenger counts, by TOC, direction, and time of train On station counts, by board/alight, and service time / TOC Station entering / leaving counts, by time of day

Comparison between observed and modelled data

Observed data processed to provide totals by AM Peak / Inter-Peak, TOC, and model link / node

PLANET PS2002 Model Validation

Central London Termini Cordon Inner London Screenlines
Underground National Rail

National Rail Screenlines

TOC based (e.g. GNER, Great Western)

PLANET PS2002 Model Validation

PLANET SOUTH London Cordon Stations (inbound)
Elephant & Castle Euston Fenchurch Street Finsbury Park Kings Cross Liverpool Street London Bridge Marylebone Paddington St Pancras Vauxhall Victoria

AM Peak

GEH

-7.2% 3.0% -0.1% -7.6% 0.0% 1.8% -0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -0.3% -1.4%

10 4 0 13 0 5 1 0 0 0 1 3

Application of PLANET
Thameslink 2000

CrossRail Business Case

Strategic Plan 2003

European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS)

Great Western Route modernisation East-West Midlands Multi-Modal Study

PLANET Interfaces
OUTPUTS
ENIF
Thematic maps of time savings Boarding/Alighting at nodes

MapInfo
Thematic maps etc Spatial Analysis

Appraisal Template
Cost-Benefit Analysis

PLANET Output using MapInfo/ENIF

PLANET Output using MapInfo

PLANET Output : Summary Statistics

Passenger Kilometres Link Type Underground DLR & Tramlink Heavy Rail Bus Coach Total
Pass_km

Total
Total_Hours

Hours Uncrowded
Uncrowd_Hours

Crowded
Crowd_Hours

Passenger Boardings
Board

Hourly Vehicle Kilometres

Train_km

6,865,093 194,591 29,241,290 1,124,070 0 37,425,044

268,389 6,749 616,496 75,428 0 967,062

208,230 6,126 448,609 75,428 0 738,393

60,159 624 167,887 0 0 228,670

1,018,880 42,774 968,837 480,317 0 2,510,808

11,858 973 54,275 22,430 0 89,536

Underground Lines Bakerloo Central Circle District

Piccadilly Victoria Waterloo & City Total
TOC Service Group LTS Rail GE (inc. IC) WAGN (Liverpool St) WAGN (Moorgate) ECML IC(inc Hull) Silverlink Chiltern

281,882 945,492 171,384 1,270,826

1,066,293 680,253 30,801 6,865,096
1,464,496 2,606,343 803,296 241,693 804,340 901,276 597,813

11,475 34,880 7,868 58,722

39,697 22,907 1,561 268,389
32,797 46,556 18,513 5,724 7,571 15,142 12,729

10,142 28,128 6,488 41,296

29,510 17,757 1,059 208,230
23,627 36,366 15,126 5,341 5,954 13,473 9,308

1,333 6,751 1,380 17,427

10,187 5,149 502 60,159
9,170 10,190 3,387 383 1,617 1,669 3,420

61,297 111,991 48,628 185,976

119,098 125,061 12,834 1,018,881
41,294 77,580 45,109 13,833 6,018 36,132 13,651

588 1,770 244 1,634

1,795 942 74 11,858
1,350 4,306 1,628 521 905 1,995 1,625

Wales & West Virgin XC Total (All Service Groups)

508,198 704,106 29,241,256

10,001 9,676 616,494

8,592 9,003 448,610

1,409 672 167,884

15,419 12,007 968,836

3,399 1,744 54,273

PLANET Output : Generalised Time Savings

Benefits pax mins pax hrs auxiliary time benefit -23036 -384 wait time benefit 220410 3674 board time benefit 110719 1845 Total In veh time inc crowded time benefit 956560 15943 ivt (uncrowded) 357910 5965 Total Crowded time benefit Uncrowded time benefit 1622563 598650 357910 27043 9978 5965

Appraisal Template: Overview

An architecture for consistent investment and policy appraisal converts model outputs, appraisal parameters and cost inputs into value for money measures which can be changed transparently by manipulating the growth and other assumptions Currently being updated for compatibility with the new SRA appraisal criteria Final (Alpha version 5) will be available in early June 2003

Appraisal Template: Stages

Information Assumptions Costs Road benefits Planet (Interface with model output) Growth factors Growth Cash flows DCFs Summary CBA

Appraisal Template: Inputs & Assumptions

Appraisal template model
Inputs and assumptions
Growth scenario high low
Use growth scenarios? FALSE Use interpeak service? FALSE Central

Appraisal for

Project

FALSE Constrain growth? Growth constraint profile

General Discount Rate Costs and benefits discounted to Growth base year Financial close date Project life (from opening date) Opening date Appraisal date Interpeak service commencement (if applicable) Interpeak service duration (years) First year end First year end - operations Interpeak service duration Operating period duration Closing date 6% 31/12/2001 01/01/2002 01/01/2003 30 years 01/01/2008 31/12/2002 01/01/2008 3 years 31/12/2003 31/12/2008 36 months 360 months 31/12/2037

Period after Planet year Peak Off-peak

31/12/2021 9 9 65.0% 70.0%

31/

Growth summary From To Business - peak Commuting - peak Leisure - peak Business- off-peak Commuting - off-peak Leisure - off-peak

31/12/2002 31/12/2011 10% 10% 10% 23% 23% 23%

01/ 31/

Appraisal Template: PLANET Inputs

Appraisal template model
Benefits inputs and calculations

Planet inputs

Full service
Planet Input year
Peak 3 hours Passenger km (Planet Outputs) Do minimum
Anglia Intercity Cross Country GNER Great Western Midland Mainline West Coast Trains C2C Chiltern Connex SE Connex SC Great Eastern 0 30,442 19,507 0 20,709 72,614 46,132 20,790 130,931 153,487 128,669

31/12/2008

Passenger seats km (m) Passenger seats growth

Business Option
0 30,464 18,675 0 20,539 72,790 46,131 20,754 104,233 122,403 128,669

Change
0 22 -832 0 -170 176 -1 -36 -26,699 -31,085 0

Anglia Cross GNER Great W Midlan West C C2C Chilter Conne Conne Great E

Appraisal Template: Cost/Benefit Summary

Appraisal template model
Cost/benefits Summary
password = "appraisal"

Cost Benefit Appraisal - TB 1 24tph Sensitivity Test 1

Item

m PV

Concession opening date Concession close date Interim service date

01/01/2008 31/12/2037 01/01/2008

Direct Costs Access and Other Capex Net Leasing Costs Net Operating Costs [TOC margin Total Net Costs

-2,181.3 -368.5 -483.4 -61.3]

-2,033.2

Financial close Appraisal date

01/01/2003 31/12/2002

Revenues Net to TOCs Net to LUL (& DLR) Total Net Revenues Avoided Costs Station Improvement Costs Total Net Financial Benefits Wider Benefits Net Passenger Time Savings Net Crowding Relief Net non-user benefits Net user accident benefits Construction Disbenefits Punctuality benefits Total Net Wider Benefits Total Net Benefits Benefit to Cost Ratio
824.7 -74.3 Planet forecast years used 31/12/2008 31/12/2012

750.4
58.8

-2,223.9

963.6 668.6 23.4 8.8

-23.9 0.0 1,640.4 -583.5 1.2:1

Future PLANET model development

Short Term Crowding and assignment procedure (MSA) Demand matrices (inc. LATS+CAPRI+other data sources) Medium Term Multi-modal modelling Four-stage model (Generation, Distribution, Mode Split, Assignment) Improved Appraisal Long Term Land-Use+Transport Interaction model