Law of Total Probability

Sometimes it is not possible to calculate the probability of an occurrence of an event A however, it may be possible to find P (A | B) and P (A | B c) for some event B.

Let B be an event with P (B) > 0 and P (B c) > 0. Then for any event A, P (A) = P (A | B)P (B) + P (A | B c) P (B c)

We know that P (A) = P (AB) + P (A Bc)

Substitute in the conditional probability

P (AB) = P (A | B)P (B) P (A Bc) = P (A | B c) P (B c)

The Law of Total Probability remains

P (A) = P (A | B)P (B) + P (A | B c) P (B c)

An insurance company that rents 40% of the cars for its customers from agency I and 60% from agency II. If 6% of the cars from agency I and 5% of the cars from agency II break down, what is the probability that a car rented by this company breaks down?

P (car breaks down from the insurance company) = (.06)(.4) + (.05)(.6) = .054 or 5.4%

Bayes Theorem
Let {B1, B2, , B n} be a subset of the sample space S of an experiment. If for i = 1, 2, , n, P (Bi) > 0, then for any event A of S with P (A) > 0, P (B k | A)
=

P ( A | Bk ) P ( Bk ) P ( A | B1 ) P ( B1 ) P ( A | B2 ) P ( B2 ) ... P ( A | Bn ) P ( Bn )

P(B) is the prior probability and P(B | A) is the posterior probability

Proof is very simple

P(A B) P(A | B) = P(B)

, conditional probability

Rearranged becomes: P (A B) = P (B) P (A | B) P (BA) = P (A) P (B | A)

Therefore P (B)P (A | B) = P (A)P (B | A) Solve for the P (B | A)

P( A | B) P( B) P (B | A) = P( A)

A box contains seven red and thirteen blue balls. Two balls are selected at random and are discarded without their colors being seen. If a third ball is drawn randomly and observed to be red, what is the probability that both of the discarded balls were blue?

P( R | BB) P( BB) P BB | R P( R | BB) P( BB) P( R | BR) P( BR) P( R | RR) P( RR)

7 39 * 18 95 0.46 7 39 6 91 5 21 * * * 18 95 18 190 18 190

A cancer is found in 1 in every 2000 people. If a person has the disease there is a 90% the test will result positive. If a person does not have the disease, the test will result in a false positive 1% of the time. The probability that a person with a positive test actually has the cancer is,

1 *.90 2000 P C | P .043 1 1999 *.90 *.01 2000 2000

So we see Bayes Theorem estimates if a person tests positive for a disease if he or she truly has the disease

Q1. The chances that doctor A will diagnose a disease X correctly is 60 % . The chances that a patient will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the chances of death after wrong diagnosis is 70% . A patient of doctor A who had disease X , died. What is the chance that his disease was diagnosed correctly.
Q2. In a bolt factory, machines A,B,C manufacture respectively 25% , 35% and 40% of the total. Of their output 5, 4 and 2% are defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective . What is the probability that it was manufactured by machine B.

P C 0.60 P W 0.40

P D | C 0.40 P D | W 0.70

P C P D | C PD | C P W P D | W P C P D | C 0.6*0.4 .24 6 0.6*0.4 0.7 *0.4 .52 13

let E denotethe event of its benig defective. P A .25 P E | A .05 P B .35 P E | B .04 P C .40 P E | C .02

P B P E | B 28 P B | E P A P E | A P B P E | B P C P E | C 69

The probability that a person can hit a target is 3/5 and the probability that another person can hit the same target is 2/5 . But the first person can fire 8 shoots in the time the second person fire 10 shoots . They fire together. What is the probability that the second person shoots the target.

3 2 P A | B1 , P A | B2 5 5 The ratio of theshoots of the first person to those of thesecond person in the same time is 8/10 4 P B1 = P B2 5

P B2 P A / B2 P B2 / A P B1 P A / B1 P B2 P A / B2 P B2 2 5 1 5 6 / 5 1 11

4 3 2 P B2 P B2 5 5 5