National Intelligence

Council Report for

2010, 2015, 2020, 2025
20090208 彥宏
Global Trends 2010
2010
 1996, National Intelligence Council (NIC) and
the Institute for National Strategic Studies
(INSS)
Agenda
 The Emerging Global Trends
 Europe

 Russia

 East Asia

 Middle East

 South Asia

 Africa

 Latin America
Population
 Population will increase by 1.2 billion to over
7 billion by 2010. About 95% of this growth
will be in developing countries
 For the industrialized world, the population
problem will not be associated with growth but
with increasing lifespans and decreasing birth
rates.
Population (now)
 http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wo

 http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop
graph.html
 Population (2008)
　 Population Percent SexRati
WORLD/2008 both male female both male female o

Total,allages 6,710,926,117 3,373,654,147 3,337,271,970 100 100 100 101.1

0-4 630,881,610 324,946,202 305,935,408 9.4 9.6 9.2 106.2
5-9 605,667,539 312,179,461 293,488,078 9 9.3 8.8 106.4
10-14 601,803,840 309,912,077 291,891,763 9 9.2 8.7 106.2
15-19 602,385,620 309,054,672 293,330,948 9 9.2 8.8 105.4
20-24 576,625,785 293,845,219 282,780,566 8.6 8.7 8.5 103.9
25-29 534,015,286 271,579,009 262,436,277 8 8 7.9 103.5
30-34 497,474,413 252,804,741 244,669,672 7.4 7.5 7.3 103.3
35-39 491,052,049 249,606,002 241,446,047 7.3 7.4 7.2 103.4
40-44 447,739,250 226,150,058 221,589,192 6.7 6.7 6.6 102.1
45-49 375,977,364 187,840,045 188,137,319 5.6 5.6 5.6 99.8
50-54 341,989,784 169,657,351 172,332,433 5.1 5 5.2 98.4
55-59 283,080,822 138,912,670 144,168,152 4.2 4.1 4.3 96.4
60-64 214,644,844 104,303,436 110,341,408 3.2 3.1 3.3 94.5
65-69 174,494,212 82,477,621 92,016,591 2.6 2.4 2.8 89.6
70-74 137,912,114 62,947,203 74,964,911 2.1 1.9 2.2 84
75-79 97,784,829 42,151,931 55,632,898 1.5 1.2 1.7 75.8
80+ 97,396,756 35,286,449 62,110,307 1.5 1 1.9 56.8
Food
 The problem of feeding a burgeoning population is
not agriculture or science, but rather political
stability, transportation and distribution.
 Genetic engineering fueling a fourth agricultural
revolution by the end of this timespan
 First: Neolithic Revolution 10,000BC. Transition from
hunting an gathering to agriculture.
 Second: British Revolution 1750-1830, massive increase
in agricultural productivity. drive the Industrial Revolution.
 Third: Green Revolution 1945, 機械化、化學肥料以及新品
種作物
 As in the past, shortages will be man-made
Communications.
 Will shrink distances and weaken barriers to
the flow of information. Communications
technology will become so inexpensive.
 The United States, Europe, Asia, and Latin
America will be in the forefront of this
communications revolution.
Energy
 Growing populations and per capita income will
drive the demand for more energy, particularly as
the Chinese and Indian economies expand
 Problems will not arise out of overall shortages
 Improvements in the efficiency of solar cells and
batteries will result in greater use of these and other
renewable energy resources, but they are unlikely
to significantly affect global reliance on fossil
fuels during this time period.
Military Technology & Deterrence
 No power will be able to match US battlefield
technological capabilities during this time
frame
 Unlikely to repeat Iraq's mistake in
challenging the United States via set-piece
conventional warfare
Europe
 Will be absorbed by the need to renegotiate the
social contract
 A large, aging population
 Declining birth rates
 Ex: Social welfare hammered out in 1945.
 Translate an enlarged and deepened EU into an
effective vehicle for policy deliberation and
execution ( 政策商儀及執行 )
 Define America's security role in a Europe that will
continue to struggle for greater unity in security and
military policy.
 Europeans realize that replacing NATO is unwarranted and
unaffordable
 NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
北大西洋公約組織
East Asia
 China has the potential to become the
region's dominant military power
 China-Taiwan issue is unlikely to be resolved
during this time frame
 An Asian "OECD" may emerge, focused on
discussions of economic and technical issues.
 Japan's economic strength will be buffeted by
demands from its aging population.
 Southeast Asia will continue to remain among
the fastest growing economic regions
worldwide
Middle East
 The use of Islam( 伊斯蘭 ) as a political weapon will
make this region to be one of the most troubling for
the future.
 Oil-producing countries will have failed to keep their
economies away from oil.
 Development of weapons of mass destruction will be
the norm during this time frame
 Developing chemical and biological weapons as opposed
to nuclear weapons
 Increasing number of young unemployed men
 Relative country: 伊朗 , 伊拉克 , 以色列 , 巴勒斯坦 ,
土耳其…
 Relative event : Gulf war ( 波斯灣戰爭 )
South Asia
 Indiawill be as a major power economically
and remain a regional power militarily.
 an explosive growth, especially focused in
southern India.
 India will continue rebuilding its arms trade
relationship with Russia.
 Due to nuclear potential in China and Pakistan
Africa
 Home to the poorest, least healthy, and most ethnically
conflicted( 種族衝突 ) people in the world.
 South Africa probably will be a successful regional leader
 President Mandela( 曼德拉 )'s continuing contribution cannot be
minimized
 南非首位黑人總統（任期： 1994年-1999年）。他被尊稱
為南非國父
 1964年在獄中又被控以「陰謀暴力推翻政府」改判無期徒刑 ，後被逐
放、關押在大西洋的羅本島 ，在獄中堅持鬥爭。
 1990年在羅本島監獄被監禁 27 年之後，曼德拉被戴克拉 克政府無條
件釋放，並再次當選非洲人國民大會主席
 1993年，曼德拉和當時的南非總統戴克拉克 共同獲得當年的
諾貝爾 和平獎
Latin America
 Economic growth, consolidation of
democracy, regional cooperation, and greater
emphasis on multilateral organizations will be
the hallmarks
 Mexico and Brazil will be the dominant voices
 threatened by drag trafficking and international
organized crime
 In Cuba, major political and economic reform
is unlikely to occur so long as Castro( 卡斯
特羅 ) remains in power