CARGO FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

Erika Buchari

INTRODUCTION

GENERAL OVERVIEW OF PORT ENGINEERING

Traffic Forecast
Ship types & Dimensions
1. BerthingSpeed 2. Draught, Beam & Length 3. Ship Manoeuvradility

BASIC DESIGN DATA & DATA SURVEY : - Geotechnical data - Meteorological & Hidrographical data - Geological data - Sea bottom character - Sea Morphology - Topographical data - Tidal data - Wind data - Wave propogation - Other constraints RESULTS :

Terminal Capacity
1. Connection to Hinterland 2. Handling Equipment 3. Land Area Requirement 4. No. of Berths & Length

1. Turning Basins 2. Accsess Channels 3. Berthing & Mooring Load

Concept of Terminal Layout (Land Use)

Sum of Nautical Requirements

1. Optimal Port Level 2. Optimal Location of Berths 3. Optimal Location of Breakwaters 4. Optimal Layout of Access Channels

- Desaign parameters & loads - Mathematical model

1. Preliminary design 2. Detail Design

GROWING DEMAND

Each transportation mode requires space for:

Access to the port area, A place to park transportation units, both full and empty, A place to service the units, A place to load/unload the units, A place to store loads in keeping with transportation arrival/departure rates.

FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

TRAFFIC FORECASTING
The essence of port traffic foresting :

What kind & tonnages of commodities will move through ? How will the commodities be packaged & carried ? What ship types, tonnages & frequency of call will result in ?

The most useful control statistic to each terminal : The total tonnage handled The average ship turn-round time The average tonnage loaded / discharge per ship The volume of traffic The % of ship using cranes or ramps The average ship length The maximum draught

Trend of Traffic: The fact that over the last few years a particular class of traffic has been increasing does not in itself mean that the trend will continue. Trends can reverse themselves very quickly.

In developing countries, the reasons of traffic increase will be one of the following:
a) Traffic is directly dependent on the GNP; b) Traffic in a specific commodity or product has been deliberately developed or run down (e.g. national selfsufficiency in a major foodstuff; development of a new industry or of mines); c) A gradual shift in regional centers of production or consumption is occurring; d) A gradual shift in transport technology or routing is occurring (from break-bulk shipment to containers; from maritime to overland transport, etc.).

FORECASTING PROCEDURE 1. Analyze past traffic

1.1. Define route, etc. 1.2. Choose cargo classification

1.3. Tabulate
1.4. Calculate trends and analyze their causes 1.5. Extract seasonal effects

2. Review market influences on traffic and technological trends

2.1. Survey shippers opinions
(public and private) 2.2. Survey shipping companies plans

3. Estimate systematic traffic growth rates

3.1. GNP- linked cargoes 3.2. Special cargoes 3.3. Regional/hinterland trends

4. Investigate expected traffic-influencing events

4.1. Industry plans 4.2. Agriculture plans

4.3. Transport links/transit policies

5. Combine all information into alternative growth and technology scenarios

5.1. Identify principal scenario themes 5.2. Combine all data for each theme 5.3. Remove numerical inconsistencies 5.4. Write scenarios

6. For each scenario, tabulate annual forecast in each traffic class

6.1 Tonnages (weight tons) 6.2 Numbers/sizes of ships

6.3 Seasonal effects

Define routes Analyse traffic records Choose cargo classes

Past seasonal effects

Past trends and their causes

Scenario A

Consult national planners Consult industry planners

Economic indicators Industri targets

Theoretical future trends

Probable future traffic

Scenario B

Annual forecast tables

Future traffic events

Scenario C

Market survey Shippers Shipping componies

Tonnages, technology

FIGURE: THE FORECASTING PROCEDURE

Simplified forecasting procedure for minor investments

2

Collect latest handling figures and update any past trends

1
Check that the specific traffic for which the investment is proposed fits into the overall plan for the zone / terminal

3
Check with industry planners for any recent changes

5
Deduce upper and lower traffic growth rates

6
Tabulate high and low forecasts for the whole life of the investment

4
Check with port users latest opinions

FIGURE: SIMPLIFIED FORECASTING PROCEDURE

RECORDING OF TRAFFIC DENSITIES-CARGO VOLUMES

The recording of traffic densities and cargo volumes should give a detailed account of Cargo and passenger handling by day of week, hour of day, Mode of transportation to and from the port, for the following:

Oceangoing tramp ships Foreign liner ships Domestic liner ships Ferries

Trucks Buses Railway Possibly aircraft

The annual turnover in the port should be if possible be subdivided into the following

categories:

Bulk/general cargo Trans-shipment ship/ship Trans-shipment ship/rail Goods carried by coastal

Goods/general cargo handled at terminal Storage time Type of storage

ships/tramps

Customs clearance

Commodities should be described in detail :

Type of cargo Present and potential cargo tonnage and volume Frequency of cargo arrival

Space requirements for cargo Cargo handling rate/time of storage Commodity classification

Origin and destination of cargo

Times of loading and discharging

Cargo handling operations

analysis Storage requirements (cold and warm)

It is essential to specify if the goods require special handling equipment, such as ;

Loading and unloading equipment.

Capacities of cranes (mobile or stationary). Fork lift truck requirement.

Groups of goods
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Agricultural products Coal, other solid material fuels Petroleum and petroleum products Ore and waste of ore and steel Metal products Cement, building materials Chemicals, fertilizers Machinery, manufactured articles

Classical cargoes
Liquid and dry bulk cargoes 1. Building materials 2. Petroleum and derivatives 3. Ores 4. Chemicals 5. Fertilizers, etc

Traffic by ship: The conveyors for freight flow to move by the waterway are the ships. The movement of the ships makes up the traffic on the waterway one of the specialties for the waterway traffic modeling is that there are great differences in the conveyors dimensions. The deadweight tonnage of the ships in Belgium varies from 250 tons to 9000 tons. It is interested to know the percentage of the freights transported by the ships with various deadweight tonnage. Some following figure show the traffic volume with the indices of: number of trips ship sailing distance tonnage moved ton. Km

Selected Operating Characteristics of Inland Waterway Craft

Length Towboat 117 142 160 Tugboats 65 to 80 90 95 to 105 125 to 150 Deck barges 21 to 23 24 25 to 30 30 to 34 8 10 to 11 12 to 14 14 to 15 30 34 40 7.6 8 8.6 Breadth (ft) Draft (ft) Horsepower 1000 to 2000 2000 to 4000 4000 to 6000 Horsepower 350 to 650 800 to 1200 1200 to 3500 2000 to 4500 Capacity (tons) 350 900 1200 Capacity Railroad cars 10 19 Capacity (tons) 350 1000 1350 Capacity (tons) 350 1500 3000 Capacity (tons) 1000 1500 Capacity (tons) Galons*) 1000 1500 302,000 454,000

110 130 195

Carfloats 257 366 Scows 90 120 130 Open Barges Hopper 175 195 290 175 195 175 195

26 30 35
40 36 30 38 40 26 30 50 26 35 26 35

6 7 8
10 10 9 11 12 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

Covered Dry cargo Barges Liquid Cargo (Tank) Barges

DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

1. The first step in a systematic forecasting procedure is to examine the existing traffic in detail preferably on a year-by-year basis going back for at least three years. List the major cargos handled in your port based on two ways; by country of loading or discharge, and by major cargo class? 2. Discuss, briefly, the aims of the market forecast in the identification of the potential users and the transport being used for the various commodities?

3. What factors that affected changes in hinterland?

4. Port A and B, each with its own hinterland demand for traffic of 100,000 and 40,000 units per year respectively. When both ports are served by the trunk route ship (case (a)), each has only the standard level of quayside activity associated with its own hinterland traffic. In case (b), the trunk road ship stops calling at port B and its traffic is carried in a coastal feeder vessel. In case (c) the feeder service to B is via land transport. What is the level of activity in case (a) and (b), and please draw the effect of feeder services on quayside activity in case (a), (b) and (c).

DISCUSSION OF TOPICS AND ASSIGNMENTS

5. Discuss, briefly, what are the technological changes that affect the traffic forecast? 6. For estimating the forecast of the number of calls (the ship traffic forecast), and of the related size of ship, what are the important items should be considered? 7. What should or should not be done in helping people to carry out their own forecasting?

TABLE SPECIFIC TRAFFIC FORECASTING BY ROUTE (TAHUN 1985)

Origin Country Import (a) ( in thousand tons )
Liquid Bulk -CPO -Petroleum product -Sulphur (b) -Vegetable oil Dry Bulk -Bricks -Iron Seed -Sulphur (b) -Cement (s) -Grains -Others Containers Load dan ro/ro (c) -Celular Ship -Conventional Ship -Ro/ro Ship Palletized Load -Palletized Tin -Iron and steel product -Other unpalletized cargo Break-bulk -Sacked Wheat -Sacked Cement -Sacked Fertilizer -Fresh Fruit -Vehicles -Machinery -General Cargo South West Europe
Norw egia Swe dia Holla nd Germ an Britis h Frenc h Total Malay sia

South East Asia

Singa pure Indon esia Phili pine Total

Ja pa n

Ameri ca

(a) Main Commodities figured is the ones that need separate estimation in single port. (The list is not complete) (b) Those commodities should be divided into different traffic category according to transport mode (c) ISO Containers and Ro/ro should be Noted in ton and TEUs

TABLE SPECIAL TRAFFIC FORECASTING DELINEATED IN YEARS

Import (a) ( in thousand tons ) Liquid Bulk CPO Petroleum product Sulphur (b) Vegetable oil Dry Bulk Bricks Iron Seed Sulphur (b) Cement (s) Grains Others Containers Load dan ro/ro (c) Celular Ship Conventional Ship Ro/ro Ship Palletized Load Palletized Tin Iron and steel product Other unpalletized cargo Break-bulk Sacked Wheat Sacked Cement Sacked Fertilizer Fresh Fruit Vehicles Machinery General Cargo Scenario A
1985 1986 1987 1990 1995 2000 1985 1986

Scenario B
1987 1990 1995 2000

(a) Main Commodities figured is the ones that need separate estimation in single port. (The list is not complete) (b) Those commodities should be divided into different traffic category according to transport mode (c) ISO Containers and Ro/ro should be Noted in ton and TEUs

EXAMPLE

REGRESION LINE

Example: From 8 zone, it is known the trip production per day (Y) and ships (X) as shown in the table.
The number of ships available 200 50 500 100 100 100 300 400

No of Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Trip Production per day 500 300 1300 200 400 1200 900 1000

Find Regression Model, by least square Method in order to get prediction the Y and X ? Solution :
X 200 Y 500 X2 40000 XY 100000

50
500 100

300
1300 200

2500
250000 10000

15000
650000 20000

100
100 300 400

400
1200 900 1000

10000
10000 90000 160000

40000
120000 270000 400000

1750

5800

572500

1615000

Formula for Least Square Method to find the best fit line of Regression line.

X2 Y - X XY A= n X 2 - ( X ) 2 A = ( 572500) ( 5800) - ( 1750 ) ( 1615000) 8 ( 572500) - ( 1750 ) 2 = 323,7

n XY - X Y B= n X 2 - ( X ) 2 B= 8 (1615000) - (1750) (5800) 8 (572500) - (1750) 2 =1.825

Then, Regression line is

Y = A + BX Y = 323,7 + 1,825X

regresion line
600 500
No of Ship

400 300 200 100 0 0 500

y = 0.2716x + 21.863 R2 = 0.4957

Series1 Linear (Series1)

1000

1500

trip production

thankyou