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2
1 1 1 2
2 2
2
1 1
1
(1+ f )(1+r ) =(1+r )
(1+r ) (1.1)
(1+ f ) = = =1.12 12%
(1+r ) (1.08)
Estimation of Implied Forward Rates
(using the spot term structure from a previous slide)
t= 0 1 2 3 4
3
f
1
1
f
2
2
f
2
1
f
3
3 1
3 4
3 1 3 4
4
4
3 1
3
3
(i) f is given by:
(1+ f )(1+r ) =(1+r )
(1+r )
(1+ f )= =1.17 or 17%
(1+r )
Estimation of Implied Forward
Rates (continued)
1 2
2 3
1 2 1 3
3 3
3
1 2
1
1 3
3 4
1 3 1 4
4 4
1 1
4
3 3
1 3
1
(ii) f is defined by:
(1+ f ) (1+r ) =(1+r )
(1+r ) (1.13)
(1 + f ) = = =1.1558 or 15.58%
(1+r ) (1.08)
(iii) f is defined by:
(1+ f ) (1+r ) =(1+r )
(1+r ) (1.14)
(1+ f ) =( ) =( ) =1.1605 or 16.05%
(1+r ) (1.08)
General Formula for Implied
Forward Rates
Note that implied fwd rates are internally
consistent, e.g.,
(
(
1
i+j j
i+j
i j
i
i
(1+r )
1+ f =
(1+r )
2 3
1 2 3 1 1 3
1
2 3
1 3 1 2 3 1
(1 ) (1 ) (1 )
(1 ) (1 ) (1 )
f f f
f f f
+ + = +
+ = + + (
Deriving a 6-Month Forward Rate
To compute a 6-month forward rate, it is necessary to utilize
a yield curve and the corresponding spot rate curve.
The following 2 investments should have the same
value:
1-year Treasury bill and
2 six-month Treasury bills (one purchased now and the other in
six months)
An investor should be indifferent since they should
produce the same investment income over the same
investment horizon.
Deriving a 6-Month Forward Rate
Although an investor does not know the interest rate of the
second 6-month T-bill, it is possible to compute it because
the forward rate must such that it equalizes the dollar
return between the two alternatives.
Exhibit 11 shows the timeline for the two investment
alternatives:
The value of first six-month T-bill is: X(1 + z
1
)
The value of the total investment following the second six-
month T-bill is: X(1 + z
1
)(1 + f)
Where z
1
is one-half the bond-equivalent yield of the 6-month spot
rate and f is one-half the forward rate on a 6-month Treasury bill
available 6 months from now. X is the amount of the investment.
Deriving a 6-Month Forward Rate
Relationship Between Spot Rates and Short-
Term Forward Rates
The value of alternative investment (a 1-year T-bill) is computed as:
X(1 + z
2
)
2
Because the two alternatives should generate identical returns:
X(1 + z
1
)(1 + f) = X(1 + z
2
)
2
Solving for f = [(1 + z
2
)
2
/ (1 + z
1
)] -1
Multiplying f by 2 to get the forward rate on a bond-equivalent yield
basis.
Forward rates can be computed on various combinations of short-
and longer-term interest rates. Exhibit 12 provides the six-month
forward rates for the entire yield curve. Exhibit 13 is a graph of the
forward rate curve.