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Statistics I

Lesson 20 Regression cont. 16th April 2010

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 1

Today

Interpretation of the Regression Coefficients How good is your regression model? (Coefficient of Determination)

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

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Back to Armands Pizza Parlour

Interpretation of Coefficients
Effect of Student Population Size on Quarterly Sales for Armand's Pizza Parlours
250

Intercept: 60 what does this mean?


Quarterly Sales (000s)

200 150 100 50 0 0 5 10 15

y = 60 + 5x

Slope: 5 what does this mean?

20

25

30

Student Population (000s)

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 3

Interpretation of Regression Coefficients

What about for the Swimmers example?

b0 b1 x y

And for the Salespeople?

b0 b1 x y

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

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Model vs Estimated Simple Linear Regression Equation


The regression model.
y = b0 + b1x +e

The estimated simple linear regression equation

b0 b1 x y

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

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So how good is your Regression Model? Coefficient of Determination

Relationship Among SST, SSR, SSE

SST = SSR + SSE


2 2 2 ( y y ) ( y y ) ( y y ) i i i i

where:
SST = total sum of squares SSR = sum of squares due to regression SSE = sum of squares due to error

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 6

Sums of Squares Diagram


How much of the total variation from the average (SST) is explained by our regression model (SSR) ie what is the proportion SSR/SST?
293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010 Slide 7

Coefficient of Determination

The coefficient of determination is: r2 = SSR/SST where: SSR = sum of squares due to regression SST = total sum of squares

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

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Coefficient of Determination for Armand


r2 = SSR/SST = 14200/15730 = .9027 The regression relationship is very strong; 90.27% of the variability in sales can be explained by the linear relationship between the size of the student population and sales.

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 9

Sample Correlation Coefficient


rxy (sign of b1 ) Coefficien t of Determinat ion
rxy (sign of b1 ) r
where: b1 = the slope of the estimated regression equation y b0 b1 x
2

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 10

Armands Sample Correlation Coefficient


rxy (sign of b1 ) r 2

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 11

Over to you
Now try the example questions

293NSTAK146B Statistics I 16th April 2010

Slide 12

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