ANALYZE AND PREDICT RESULTS BASED ON HISTORICAL PATTERNS

Analysis is all about :

WHAT HAPPENED AND WHY IT HAPPENED.. THIS ALONE GIVES NO FULLFILMENT..

Prediction is all about:

ORGANISATION NEED TO KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW ,WHAT IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN NEXT AND WHAT ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO GET THE OPTIMAL RESULTS..

 Historical data, by itself, is not directly useful in the decision

making process.

Instead, it is necessary to make sense of that data, to identify key drivers and patterns in order to be able to extrapolate meaningful information.

Forecasting, Econometrics and Time Series Analyze and predict

future outcomes based on historical patterns.

Historical Patterns are the information obtained from the historical events.(ie) from the past.

This is mainly to know the aspects of the past .

These informations reveals not only the past but also gives

information about the present as well.

This involves of some techniques:

Historical data analysis techniques Historical extrapolation techniques

 Historical data analysis techniques:

Historical data is analyzed to discover patterns or relations that will be useful in projecting the future values of significant variables.
Historical extrapolation techniques:

Historical data describes the past but planning involves the future. Estimation is generally based on analysis of the past history combined with various techniques to generate data for planning purpose. NOTE: The sources may be from Facts&Figures, Articles, Datawarehouse,or from any research thesis etc..

Example:

ADD TARGET VALUE TO EACH RECORD Original Database DATA MINING SEARCHING FOR GLOBAL PATTERNS Transformed Database

 Analysis of historical data plays a vital role in business decisions.

Often, data collected from past projects and investments can be useful in providing estimates for future projects.

Being able to analyse historical data and establish relationships

between key variables enables us to have systematic and relevant information about business operations.
This can be a significant competitive advantage as it enables a

more structured approach towards decision making.

Benefits
Analyze the impact of promotions and events.
Model customer choices.

Measure and predict marketing investment activities.

Provide the information needed to make better decisions. Model risk factors and predict economic outcomes.

 After identifying patterns in historical data, predictive analytics

software uses advanced algorithms and models not employees interpretations to determine how the pattern will continue in the future.
The rapid growth of data within companies and on the Web

contributed, more than anything else, to the emergence of predictive analytics.

Its no wonder that the financial services sector, a branch that has

long dealt with massive amounts of data, was an early adopter of the technology more than 20 years ago.

 Over time, businesses have always sought new and better ways to

make informed decisions. In the past, they mostly relied on employees experience in the field and their gut instinct to guide business decisions.
Then, as record-keeping systems in the enterprise improved,

companies were able to analyze historical business data more easily to search for interesting patterns and anomalies.
These analyses, however, were backwards-looking, and employees

usually had to interpret the insights themselves to predict what would happen next.

 Predictive analysis techniques make use of historical data to

create predictions, usually by capturing relationships between explanatory (independent) variables and predictors (predicted variables) from past events.
To perform its task, the predictive model uses historical data to

generate its outcome. So, for example, based on the analysis of historical data it is possible to address specific business cases and attempt the prediction of business scenarios such as customer behavior, product supply and demand prediction, fraud detection, risk assessment, customer churn rates, and sales and margin predictions.

How does using this historic data compare to other forms of decision support or even doctors' own diagnostic experience? Typically during an emergency the patient doesn't know where they are. In true emergencies they can't tell you their symptoms. But through the data that's in their electronic records and through the data from the study we can predict outcomes and risk based on their condition. Yes, it seems like a decision support system, but it's a little bit more than that, because the predictive analytics has built the decision support system. All the symptoms that indicate a heart attack or a stroke have been gathered before. It is in a data warehouse with information about patients who have had a stroke or cardiac arrest. Then you do the analytics on that and you form the predetermined patterns. And that pattern will build your EMR decision support. It's a continuing effort. With very solid predictive analytics you build a better decision support.

Predictive Analytics : Case Study The Perfect Use Case for Cloud Computing
Can cloud help predict the future? Okay, thats a loaded

question, but there are certainly voices out there making the case that cloud computing provides the processing and big data support needed for predictive analytics.
Predictive analytics matching current datasets against

historical patterns to determine the probability of an event occurring in the future requires a lot of compute power and draws on a lot of data. In other words, a perfect use case for cloud.

 James Taylor, automated decision management proponent and author/co-author of two books on the topic, says cloud computing is elevating the art and science of predictive analytics to a whole new level. No longer do such efforts need to be be constrained by companies current server and storage capacity with online, sharable resources, the skys the limit. Based on a survey Taylor conducted at the end of last year among 200 business intelligence professionals, 43% have already developed predictive analytics solutions within their companies,and 82% have predictive analytics in their plans going forward.

Separately, predictive analytics and cloud solutions are changing the way organizations do business, he states. Together, they open up a wealth of opportunities.

 Other industry research confirms the growing level of interest in moving business intelligence to the cloud. Another survey of 1,364 IT managers by Gartner, for example, finds that almost a third (27%) already use or plan to use cloud/SaaS options to augment their BI capabilities for specific lines of business or subject areas in the next 12 months.
While predictive analytics has a range of applications, from fraud detection to production system management, Taylors survey identifies the sweet spot for cloud-based predictive analytics as the effective acquisition, management and retention of customers.

The top two areas for predictive analytics projects ar marketing/customer acquisition (with 61% implementing or having specific plans to implement) and customer retention (50%).

 Other areas that scored well included the broader category of customer management (48%), sales and cross-sell/up-sell (46%). A similar question focused on cloud adoption showed campaign management (60%), and CRM scoring highest (59%).
Time to value, pervasiveness, agility, scalability and data access are the key pros of cloud-based predictive analytics. Taylor also points out. Organizations dont want to wait more than a few months before seeing a positive outcome, he explains. Using cloud-based predictive analytic solutions has a much faster time to value than alternatives and this represents a critical advantage for the approach.

Access to big data is another key advantage cloud computing offers. Many new big data sources are only available in the cloud, Taylor says.

 In the case of a credit card company, a cloud-based predictive analytics approach was instrumental in targeting and shutting down bust-out fraud in which individuals suddenly max out their credit lines and then disappear three to five days earlier than existing industry models, saving the card issuer more than $40 million per year in losses.

Thus Predictive Analytics Technology that empowers business executives to quickly and easily predict which customers are at risk of leaving and which ones are more likely to take up certain offers.