DATA INTERPRETATION IN UNCERTAINITY

ACCEPTABLE PINS

ACCEPTABLE PINS
PRODUCT OF COMPANY

MANUFACTURE & SUPPLY OF PINS

DATA ON HAND

MEAN, ( )= 1.012

STANDARD DEVIATION, () = 0.018

CUSTOMER DESIRED LENGTH = 1.00
ACCEPTABLE TOLERANCES = 0.02
NORMALLY DISTRIBUTED

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
1. WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THE PINS WILL BE ACCEPTABLE TO THE CONSUMER?
U

Now, X

N(1.012, 0.018)

Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.012/0.018)) < (X- 1.012 )/ 0.018 < (1.02- 1.012)/0.018)]
[Say, Z = (X- )/ ]

= P[ -1.777 < Z < 0.444 ]

= P[ -1.777 < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.444 ]
= 0.4620 + 0.1720

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(From Tables)

= 0.6340

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS

0.444

-1.777
= 1.012

63.40% OF PINS ARE ACCEPTABLE TO THE CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
2. IF THE LATHE CAN BE ADJUSTED TO HAVE THE MEAN OF THE LENGTHS
TO ANY DESIRED VALUE, WHAT SHOULD IT BE ADJUSTED TO? WHY?

SUPPOSE, =1.00 (ADJUSTED TO DESIRED VALUE) & = 0.018

U

Now, X

N(1.00, 0.018)

Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.00/0.018)) < (X- 1.00)/ 0.018 < (1.02- 1.00)/0.018)]
[Say, Z = (X- )/ ]
= P[ -1.111 < Z < 1.111]
= P[ -1.111 < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.111 ]
= 2(0.3665)
= 0.7330

----------

(From Tables)

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS

-1.111

1.111
= 1.00

73.30% OF PINS ARE ACCEPTABLE TO THE CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
3. SUPPOSE THE MEAN CANNOT BE ADJUSTED BUT THE STANDARD

DEVIATION CAN BE REDUCED. WHAT MAXIMUM VALUE OF THE STANDARD

DEVIATION WOULD MAKE 90% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO THE
CONSUMER (ASSUME THE MEAN TO BE 1.012.)

SUPPOSE, =1.012 & (VALUE NOT KNOWN)

U

Now, X

N(1.00, )

given, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.90

Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.012/ ) < (X- 1.00)/ < (1.02- 1.00)/ )]
[Say, Z = (X- )/ ]
0.90 = P[ -0.032/ < Z < 0.008/ ]
0.5 + 0.40 = P[[ -0.032/ < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.008/ ]
[ASSUME, P[[ -0.032/ < Z < 0 ] ] = 0.5
0.5 + 0.40 = P[ a< Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < b ]

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
0.40 = P[ 0 < Z < b ]
Say, b = 0.008/
Value of b = 1.28 @ 0.40

----------

(From Tables)

1.28 = 0.008 /

Therefore, = 0.00625

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
a

b
a IS 4 TIMES THAT OF b

0.008/

-0.032/
= 1.012

MAXIMUM VALUE OF = 0.00625 WILL MAKE 90% OF

THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO THE CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
4. REPEAT QUESTION 3, WITH 95% AND 99% OF THE PINS ACCEPTABLE?
SUPPOSE WITH 95% OF PINS ACCEPTANCE
=1.012 & (VALUE NOT KNOWN)
U

Now, X

N(1.012, )

given, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.95

Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.012/ ) < (X- 1.00)/ < (1.02- 1.00)/ )]
0.95 = P[ -0.032/ < Z < 0.008/ ]

[Say, Z = (X- )/ ]

0.5 + 0.45 = P[[ -0.032/ < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.008/ ]

0.5 + 0.45 = P[ a< Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < b ]
0.40 = P[ 0 < Z < b ]

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
Say, b = 0.008/
Value of b = 1.645 @ 0.45

----------

(From Tables)

1.645 = 0.008 /

Therefore, = 0.00486

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
a

b
a IS 4 TIMES THAT OF b

0.008/

-0.032/
= 1.012

MAXIMUM VALUE OF = 0.00486 WILL MAKE 95% OF

THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO THE CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
SUPPOSE WITH 99% OF PINS ACCEPTANCE
=1.012 & (VALUE NOT KNOWN)
N(1.012, )

Now, X

given, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.99

U
Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.012/ ) < (X- 1.00)/ < (1.02- 1.00)/ )]
0.99 = P[ -0.032/ < Z < 0.008/ ]

[Say, Z = (X- )/ ]

0.5 + 0.49 = P[[ -0.032/ < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.008/ ]

0.5 + 0.49 = P[ a< Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < b ]
0.40 = P[ 0 < Z < b ]
Say, b = 0.008/

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
Value of b = 2.33 @ 0.49

----------

(From Tables)

2.33 = 0.008 /

Therefore, = 0.00343

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
a

b
a IS 4 TIMES THAT OF b

0.008/

-0.032/
= 1.012

MAXIMUM VALUE OF = 0.00343 WILL MAKE 99% OF

THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO THE CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
5. IN PRACTICE, WHICH ONE DO YOU THINK IS EASIER TO ADJUST, THE
MEAN OR THE STANDARD DEVIATION? WHY?

THE SUMMARIZATION OF ABOVE RESULTS THINK US AS FOLLOWS:

Q

MEAN STANDARD DEVIATION

()
()

LEVEL OF PINS ACCEPTABLE

(% )

1.012

0.018

63.40

1.00

0.018

73.30

1.012

0.00625

90

4a

1.012

0.00486

95

4b

1.012

0.00343

99

REMARKS
A minor change
in results in
comparatively
lesser impact on
% acceptance
A minor change
in results in
comparatively
lesser impact on
% acceptance

AS PER THE PROBLEM, THE COST OF RESETTING THE MACHINE TO ADJUST THE MEAN
()INVOLVES THE ENGINEERS TIME AND THE COST OF PRODUCTION TIME.
THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION () INVOLVES THE ENGINEERS TIME,
THE COST OF PRODUCTION TIME, THE COST OF OVERHAULING THE MACHINE AND
REENGINEERING THE PROCESS.

SO IN PRACTICE, THE MEAN IS EASIER TO ADJUST

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
6. ASSUME IT COSTS $150 x2 TO DECREASE THE STANDARD DEVIATION ()
BY (x/1000) INCH. FIND THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION
TO THE VALUES FOUND IN QUESTION 3 AND 4?

[Say, a - ACTUAL STANDARD DEVIATION,

d - DERIVED STANDARD DEVIATION &
c CHANGE IN STANDARD DEVIATION

From Q3, we know,

=1.012 & d = 0.00625 & P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.90

CHANGE IN , c = (a d)
= (0.018 0.00625)
= 0.01175
c = 11.75/1000

i.e.,

x = 11.75

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
From given relation,
Cost = $150 x2
= $150 X (11.75) 2
Therefore, Cost = $20709.375
THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IS
$20709.375, IF 90% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO
CONSUMER
From Q4a, we know,
=1.012 & d = 0.00486 & P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.95
CHANGE IN , c = (a d)
= (0.018 0.00486)

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
c = 0.01314
c = 13.14/1000

i.e.,

x = 13.14

From given relation,

Cost = $150 x2
= $150 X (13.14) 2
Therefore, Cost = $25898.94

THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IS

$25898.94, IF 95% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO
CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
From Q4b, we know,
=1.012 & d = 0.00343 & P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.99
CHANGE IN , c = (a d)
= (0.018 0.00343)
= 0.01457

c = 14.57/1000

i.e.,

x = 14.57

From given relation,

Cost = $150 x2
= $150 X (14.57) 2
Therefore, Cost = $31842.735
THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IS
$31842.735, IF 99% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO
CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
7. NOW ASSUME THAT THE MEAN HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE BEST VALUE
FOUND IN QUESTION 2 AT A COST OF $80. CALCULATE THE REDUCTION IN
STANDARD DEVIATION NECESSARY TO HAVE 90%, 95% AND 99% OF THE
PARTS ACCEPTABLE. CALCULATE THE RESPECTIVE COSTS, AS IN QUESTION
6?

From Q2, we know,

=1.00 & (VALUE NOT KNOWN),WITH 90% OF PINS ACCEPTANCE

P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.90
Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.00/)) < (X- 1.00)/ ) < (1.02- 1.00)/)]
0.9 = P[-0.02/ < Z < 0.02/ ]
0.9 = P[-0.02/ < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
0.90 = 2 P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
0.45 = P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
0.45 = P[ 0 < Z < b]
Say, b = 0.02/

Value of b = 1.645 @ 0.45

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(From Tables)

1.645 = 0.02 /

Therefore, d = 0.01216
# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS

-0.02/

0.02/
= 1.00

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
CHANGE IN , c = (a d)
= (0.018 0.01216)
= 0.00584
c = 5.84/1000

i.e.,

x = 5.84

From given relation,

Cost = $150 x2 + $80 ($80 IS THE COST FOR ADJUSTING TO DESIRED
VALUE)
= $150 X (5.84) 2 + $80
Therefore, Cost = $5195.84
THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IS
$5195.84, IF 90% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO
CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
From Q2, we know,
=1.00 & (VALUE NOT KNOWN),WITH 95% OF PINS ACCEPTANCE
P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.95
Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.00/)) < (X- 1.00)/ ) < (1.02- 1.00)/)]
0.95 = P[-0.02/ < Z < 0.02/ ]
0.95 = P[-0.02/ < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
0.95 = 2 P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
0.475 = P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
0.475 = P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
Say, b = 0.02/
Value of b = 1.96 @ 0.475

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(From Tables)

1.96 = 0.02 /

Therefore, d = 0.01020
CHANGE IN , c = (a d)
= (0.018 0.01020)

= 0.00780
c = 7.80/1000

i.e.,

x = 7.80

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
From given relation,
Cost = $150 x2 + $80 ($80 IS THE COST FOR ADJUSTING TO DESIRED
VALUE)
= $150 X (7.80) 2 + $80

Therefore, Cost = $9206

THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IS
$9206, IF 95% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO
CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
From Q2, we know,
=1.00 & (VALUE NOT KNOWN),WITH 99% OF PINS ACCEPTANCE
P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = 0.99
Then, P(0.98 < X < 1.02) = P[(0.98- 1.00/)) < (X- 1.00)/ ) < (1.02- 1.00)/)]
0.99 = P[-0.02/ < Z < 0.02/ ]
0.99 = P[-0.02/ < Z < 0 ] + P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
0.99 = 2 P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
0.495 = P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
0.495 = P[ 0 < Z < 0.02/]
Say, b = 0.02/
Value of b = 2.57 @ 0.495

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(From Tables)

2.57 = 0.02 /

Therefore, d = 0.00778
CHANGE IN , c = (a d)
= (0.018 0.00778)

= 0.01022
c = 10.22/1000

i.e.,

x = 10.22

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
From given relation,
Cost = $150 x2 + $80 ($80 IS THE COST FOR ADJUSTING TO DESIRED
VALUE)
= $150 X (10.22) 2 + $80

Therefore, Cost = $15747.26

THE COST OF REDUCING THE STANDARD DEVIATION IS
$15747.26, IF 99% OF THE PARTS ACCEPTABLE TO
CONSUMER

# All the dimensions are in inches

ACCEPTABLE PINS
8. BASED ON YOUR ANSWERS TO QUESTION 6 AND 7, WHAT ARE

YOUR RECOMMENDED MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION?

# All the dimensions are in inches