TRANSPORTATION MODELING

QUOTABLE QUOTES

"After I'm dead I'd rather have people ask why I have no monument than why I have one. - Cato the Elder
(234-149 BC, AKA Marcus Porcius Cato)

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What does it mean?
Transportation Modeling or Transportation Forecasting is the process of estimating the number of vehicles or people that will use a specific transportation facility in the future. For instance, a forecast may estimate; a) number of vehicles on a planned road or bridge b) ridership on a railway line c) number of passengers visiting an airport d) number of ships calling on a seaport

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How is it done?
Traffic forecasting begins with the collection of data on current traffic. This traffic data is combined with other known data, such as population, employment, trip rates, travel costs, etc., to develop a traffic demand model for the current situation.
Feeding it with predicted data for population, employment, etc. results in estimates of future traffic, typically estimated for each segment of the transportation infrastructure in question, e.g., for each roadway segment or railway station.

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Why is it important?
Traffic forecasts are used for several key purposes in transportation policy, planning, and engineering: a) to calculate the capacity of infrastructure, e.g., how many lanes a bridge should have; b) to estimate the financial and social viability of projects, e.g., using cost-benefit analysis and social impact assessment; and c) to calculate environmental impacts, e.g., air pollution and noise

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Four-step Model
Within the rational planning framework, transportation forecasts have traditionally followed the sequential four-step model or Urban Transportation Planning (UTP) procedure, first implemented on mainframe computers in the 1950s at the Detroit Area Transportation Study and Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS).

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Four-step Model: The 1st Step Trip Generation. Determines the frequency
of origins or destinations of trips in each zone by trip purpose, as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other socioeconomic factors.

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Four-step Model: The 2nd Step Trip Distribution.
Determines the origin or destination of trips that are generated at a given activity.

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Four-step Model: The 3rd Step Modal Split.
Determines which mode of transportation will be used to make the trip.

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Four-step Model: The 4th Step Traffic Assignment.
Determines which route on the transportation network will be used when making the trip.

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Four-step Model: Diagram

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Procedural Summary
1 2 Data collection (population, land use, etc.) Analysis of existing conditions and calibration Forecast of future travel demand (the Four-step Model) Analysis of the results

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Inaccuracy Issues?!
a) for nine out of ten railway projects the study found that passenger forecasts were overestimated, with an average overestimate of 106% b) for half (50%+) of all road projects, including bridges and tunnels, the study found that the difference between actual and forecast traffic was more than 20%, while for 25% of road projects the difference was more than 40%
-Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (January 2006). "Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts". Vol. 26, No. 1, 124. Transport Reviews.

FUN FACTS & TRIVIAS

Longest Bridge? The DanyangKunshan

Grand Bridge, in China, is the world's longest bridge. It is a 164.8 kilometers (102.4 mi) long.
Widest Highway? With 26 lanes in certain parts, the Katy Freeway or Interstate 10, in USA, is the widest highway in the world. It serves more than 219,000 vehicles daily in Texas.

Pro Deo, Familia et Patria

The End