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INTRODUCTION
The foreign exchange market operates 24 hours a day. Markets open in the Far East, and as Tokyo winds down, European markets open followed by the US, and as the US reaches its close, the Far Eastern markets open their doors once again. Turnover in the FX Spot market has increased from $5 Billion in 1977 to $3.2 Trillion a day! In South Africa the currency futures market only began in 2007, total value traded in 2007 was R1.5 billion. In 2011 R100 billion traded locally.
INTRODUCTION
Graph 1: Value of currency futures traded in SA 2007-2012
Currency Futures Value Traded (CUM)
R 350,000,000,000
R 300,000,000,000
R 250,000,000,000
R 200,000,000,000
Value Traded
R 150,000,000,000
R 100,000,000,000
R 50,000,000,000
INTRODUCTION
The US dollar is the most widely traded currency and accounts for 40 45 per cent of all spot forex trading.
DIFFERENT CURRENCIES
Major Currencies
USD GBP EURO JPY CHF
Minor Currencies
Singapore Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Indian Rupee.
Exotic Currencies
Indonesian Rupiah, Thai Baht, Hong Kong Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit.
DIFFERENT CURRENCIES
Emerging markets currencies are lumped together and any occurrence affecting one emerging market currency may spread like wild fire through all emerging market currencies. Investors in emerging market currencies must therefore always keep a tab on generic developments in other emerging markets. South Africa is also known as one of the commodity countries. Developments regarding the prices of metals such as gold, platinum and silver, and occurrences like bull or bear markets in commodities generally impact on the South African rand.
Leverage (or gearing) simply means to trade with margin. The value of currencies transactions engaged is higher than the amount a trader or investor has on margin.
Leverage is a double-edged sword. Leveraged positions can lead to large gains if the exchange rate between two currencies moves as anticipated, but conversely will cause large losses if the exchange rate moves in the opposite direction. The concept of being wiped out is not just a theoretical possibility, but a real one.
Points are added when the interest rate of the base currency (USD) is the lower one (0.1% vs. 5.595%), since the base currency should trade at a forward premium. The future rate would thus be 8.20000 + 0.1234 = 8.3234
SPECULATIVE TRADING
Normal future trade Dollar Bear
Sizwe feels that in the current economic environment there is a lot of positive sentiment and he feels that we will start seeing a more risk on* environment coming our way and consequently feels that the dollar is overvalued and should depreciate in the near future. On day 1 the spot rate is trading at 8.2000 and the future is at 8.3234 . Sizwe sells 100 Sep 12 USDZAR contracts @ 8.3234 Margin per contract is R340.00 per contract. (Remember margin must be multiplied by 2). Brokerage is R18.00 per contract (Brokerage is paid to open the position and again when the position is closed). Client pays to PSG R69 800 (R68 000 +R 1 800) Initial margin earns interest on deposit at SAFEX rates.
*A risk on environment causes investors to shy away from safe haven assets like the USD, JPY and CHF. Money flow should then favour risky assets. The Rand is a regarded as a risk asset being an emerging market currency.
SPECULATIVE TRADING
On day 4 the spot rate is trading at 8.00 and the future is at 8.1234 Sizwe buys the 100 Sep USDZAR contracts back at 8.1234
- Gross Profit = R20,000 - Total Brokerage = R3,600 (R1,800 X 2) - Net Profit = R16,400 The initial capital outlay of R68,000 has returned a profit of R20,000. A return of 30% during the period in which the Rand only weakened by 2.4% If this was day trade (i.e. opened and closed on the same day) brokerage would only have been paid on the one leg. Total brokerage would then been R 1,800
SPECULATIVE TRADING
R 8.2500
R 8.1500
R 8.2300
R 7 340
R 10 000
R -8 000
R 10 660
R 5 540
R 10 000
R -8 000
R 8 860
PNL TABLE
SELL EURZAR
Direction Contracts Spot Price Fut Price Exposure ZAR Value Total Bro (ZAR) End Value
Initial Value Less Brokerage
R -1 059 080
R 1 003 150 R -1 800 R -57 730
Sell
100
R 10.03
R 1 800
Buy
100
R 10.59
R0
Profit (ZAR)
BUY USDZAR
Direction Contracts Spot Price Fut Price Exposure ZAR Value Total Bro (ZAR) End Value Initial Value Less Brokerage R 847 260 R -754 250 R -1 800 R 91 210
Buy
100
R 7.54
R 7.55
R 1 800
Sell
100
R 8.47
R 8.49
R0
Profit (ZAR)
Net PNL
R 33 480
MTM Price Profit/(Loss) for the day x R10.00/pip x100 x number of contracts (244) Net Cash flow for the day
R 8.4300
R 8.5700
R 8.4700
R 26 840
R 22 448
R 34 160
R 34 160
R -24 400
R -24 400
R 37 185.60
R 32 793.60
There is a risk that you may lose more money than you initially invested. The most important thing to remember is that not every trade will be a successful trade resulting in profits. With every trade you should also have a target price/profit target in mind. Be strict and diligent. Dont trade on emotion; trade on fundamentals, a strategy and logic with some common sense. It is very tempting to ride a trade into profit and stay in the trade looking for larger gains. This can go wrong and you may well ride the trade all the way back into losses.
ADVANTAGES
A known currency rate can be traded and locked in. There is no need to hold the futures contract till expiry, the contract can be closed or traded out at anytime. Due to the fact that the contracts trade on the JSE, investors enjoy a liquid market with dedicated market makers making competitive prices with tight spreads. Futures are geared products, which mean currency traders do not have to deposit cash to cover the full value of the position. Importers and exporters can dynamically hedge their currency risk far more efficiently using futures due to the ease of entering and exiting futures positions and the low cost per trade. The daily mark-to-market process allows clients the ability to track their profit or loss situation and to adjust their portfolio accordingly. Once the position has been closed out, all settlement occurs in Rand.
ADVANTAGES OF PSG
PSG is a well-known, independent and respected financial services provider in South Africa. PSG is regulated by the financial services board of South Africa as well as being a member of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. PSG traders are highly skilled and are approved by the JSE to trade on the South African Futures exchange. PSG is able offer a competitive trading brokerage of R18 per contract, which includes the JSE clearing and settlement fee. The spreads / prices that you receive are the same as those that are trading on the JSE. PSG does not add to or adjust the contract spreads / prices. There is no monthly account fee. You will receive daily market research, market commentary, traders views, trading ranges and trade ideas to help you make informed and educated investment decisions. Clearly that is wealth simplified, but if all of that doesnt convince you, then we should tell you that there is one thing we wouldnt trade The fact that we were voted stockbroker of the year 2011**
**As voted for by Business Day Investors Monthly.
HOW DO I START
Visit the Currency Futures page on the PSG Online website click here Call PSG Online on 0860 PSG PSG / 774 774 or email info@psgonline.co.za Our Currency Futures team will arrange for the opening of your account. You can register online click here
Contact us
Thank you Lynden Reabow: Sales Trader lynden.reabow@psgonline.co.za 021 799 8136 078 756 28 27 Ockert van Niekerk: Head of Trading Ockert.vanniekerk@psgonline.co.za 021 799 8111 Heidi van Niekerk: Compliance Officer Heidi.vanniekerk@psgonline.co.za 021 799 8087