Six Sigma Black Belt Certification Demo Week2

Qi
2
, 1995-2002
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VA vs. NVA
Value Adding Activity
An activity that transforms or shapes raw material
or information to meet customer requirements
Non-Value Adding Activity
An activity that takes time, resources or space, but
does not directly add to the value of the product itself
The acid test:

Would the customer be willing to pay for the activity?
OVER
PROCESSING
INVENTORY
MOTION
MOVE IT OVER
THERE UNTIL WE
NEED IT
CONVEYANCE
CORRECTION
OVER PRODUCTION
WAITING
The 7 Major
Wastes
Source: Ford 6 S Training Course
EXERCISE
Assembling two parts together
Searching for information
Making initial fixture setup
Transporting materials to next station
Capturing data once at the source
Examining castings for defects
Walking to parts storage for assembly screws
Storing a lot on a movable rack
Readjusting the fixture setup
Trouble-shooting a rejected assembly
QC final inspection
Leaving a form in an in-basket
Attending a benefits meeting

VA NVA
For each task, select whether it is value
added or non value added
SETUP TIME REDUCTION
The objective is to facilitate small-lot production,
not to reduce setup personnel headcount/labor
The people involved in the setup should do their own
setup time reduction

- Look at the setup as a process

- Use videotape recording, with a built-in time clock
(down to seconds)
The team should follow a 4-step process:

1. Analyze the complete videotaped setup and
classify the time elements into 2 categories:

1. Internal time
2. External time
2. Eliminate the external downtime
3. Reduce the remaining internal setup time with
better methods; then, practice on them
4. Eliminate as many adjustments as possible
More
USING TESTS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
It is not always possible to draw valid conclusions about a
population just by looking at sample data. We need to
make sure any conclusions we draw about the underlying
population are truly supported by the data.
You may ask yourself, for example,

Is our root-cause hypothesis proven based on the data we have collected?

Are these two groups of sample data from the same or different underlying
populations? = ?

Has the proportion of defectives truly changed from what it used to be? p
1
= p
0
?

Do these two processes have the same amount of variation? = ?

Is there any significant difference in the quality characteristics between these
three vendors? p
1
= p
2
= p
3
?
1
2
1
o
2
2
o

TWO - TAIL TESTS

Use a two
- tail test if you are testing whether a sample value
(statistic) is different (whether bigger or smaller) than an
established (generally a population) value

o
The risk is divided in two and placed on both ends of a
distribution of test statistics:
in both
its previous value or is significantly different than another
of the existing or reference distribution
0
).

the right and left tails (the Rejection Regions, for rejecting H
populations value, the critical region will be divided
To test whether a statistic has changed significantly from
curve.

0
a
H : value 1 = value 2
H : value 1 =
value 2

2
The Acceptance Region,
for acc epting H
0

2
DECISION TREE ON 2 MEANS TESTS
with known variance
or with n > 30
Compare sample
mean to a specified
value
with unknown &
assumed equal
variances, and
n s 30
Compare means
from 2 samples
Compare sample
mean to a specified
value
Compare means
of paired sets of
data (e.g., on mult.
samples from 2
sources)
with unknown &
not assumed equal
variances, & n s 30
Compare means
from 2 samples
The Non-Parametric alternatives to the 2 Means tests are the Sign Test on 2 Medians,
the Rank Sum Test (Wilcoxon) on 2 Means, and the Mann-Whitney U Test. p. 68
p. 42
p. 47 p. 51
p. 54
p. 58
Back to Means Test Exercise

= 9.37
The Acceptance
Region, for
accepting H
0

+ 1.645
x
o
= 10.11
The Rejection Region,
for rejecting H
0
(5%)

+ 2.71
x
o
= 10.59
Location of the
test statistic

.
Z TEST ON TWO MEANS (Contd.)
The actual p value, i.e., the probability that if H
0
is true, we will
observe the statistic x deviating by chance from the parameter being
tested ( = 9.37) by a greater degree than is observed, is .0034.
This is the area under the curve to the right of Z = 2.71.
to Z Table
t TEST ON TWO MEANS

(With Unknown but Assumed Equal Variances, & n s 30)

Purpose:

To compare the mean from a sample to the known or
specified mean of a population to see if the difference
between them should be considered significant (at a
selected o level of risk)

Assumptions:

1. Both distributions are normal, and the samples are
independent and randomly taken

2. o
1
= o
2
(unknown but assumed equal; a test on the
two variances is often applied first in order to assess
this assumption).
example next
MINITAB EXERCISE APPLYING TESTS ON 2 MEANS (Contd.)
2. File > Open Worksheet \Data\exh_stat.mtw (no 1-sample tests in Excel)
Test to see if the likely population mean material thickness (Values in
Col. 1) is less than the historical average of 5.0 mils. Use a 90%
confidence level. o is not known. Also, create a indiv. value plot of the
data as part of the test.
What is the attained significance level (p-value) ?
Does this suggest that the new population mean
is less than 5.0?
What does the plot show?
.017
Yes
The C.I. does not contain H
0
(5.0).
Minitab
to next t test
ANOVA TEST ON > 3 MEANS
Purpose:

To compare the means from 3 or more samples to see if the
difference between them should be considered significant
(at a selected o level of risk)
Assumptions:

We use an F test to see whether the 3 or more sample means
underlying populations are different. This test requires that we
assume homogeneous variances and that the measurements
were taken randomly from normally distributed populations.
If the sample sizes are equal, slight departures from the
assumption of equal variances are acceptable.
Example:

Three molding machines are being studied to see if their average molded
part dimensions are the same, with the following samples:

Machine A: .450, .458, .449, .451, .455; B: .456, .461, .458, .451, .463
C: .464, .467, .463, .459, .462 (see next slide for Minitab instructions)
In Minitab:

Enter the 15 values in a column; Enter the machine ID letters
(A, B, or C) in another column to match up with the response data

Stats\ANOVA\One-way

In the 1-way Analysis of Variance dialog box:

Response: select the column that contains the 15 test data.
Factor: select the column that contains the machine ID letters.
Graphs: select boxplot of data; click on OK

What does the output tell you?
Save the worksheet for use later with ANOM & multiple variances test
The boxplot shows machines A and C have different means. The small p value
in the ANOVA shows there is a statistically significant difference between at least
2 of the machines. The C.I.s for machines A and C do not overlap.
DETERMINING SAMPLE SIZE
When estimating the population mean for variable data from a
normal distribution,

n =

where = the table Z value for the desired
level of confidence

o = the standard deviation of the normal
population from which we are to
select our sample, and

e = the specified amount of error between
and ; the allowable difference
between them
o
o | |
|
|
\ .
2
2
Z
e
o
2
Z
x
We will be 1 - % confident that our estimate of will
be off by no more than e; there is a % chance that
we think is not between e and it actually is
o

o
x
DETERMINING SAMPLE SIZE (Contd.)
Example

If an initial sample of 32 product samples yielded a mean ( ) of 24.3 mm
and a standard deviation (S) of 1.0 mm, what total sample size do we
need to be 95% confident that our estimate of will be off by .1 mm or
less (i.e., it is within 24.2 and 24.4)? As long as the initial sample size is >
30, we can use the samples S as an estimate of o. The Z value for a .95
area under the curve (two-tail) is 1.96.

x
Note: The beta risk defaults to 50% when it is not included
in the sample size calculation.
| |
= =
|
\ .
2
1.96x1.0
n 384.2 385
.1
to Z Table

This design can be used to study 3 factors
at 2 levels each -- but not all combinations
are tested . . .

Column A B C
Condition 1 2 3 Data

1 1 1 1
2 1 2 2
3 2 1 2
4 2 2 1

L
4
(2
3
)

L
4
(2
3
)
This design can be used to study 3 factors at 2 levels
each but not all combinations are tested . . .
Qi
2
, 2002
Experimental
Runs
Factors
Responses
Levels
CALCULATING MAIN EFFECTS (Contd.)
To begin the analysis of the data, you need to isolate (or separate) the data
that corresponds to each level of each factor:
Column A B C Response

Condition 1 2 3 Data (Y
i
)

1 1 1 1 3
2 1 2 2 5
3 2 1 2 6
4 2 2 1 4
L
4
(2
3
)
The average of A at level 1 ( ) is the average of the data from
experimental run conditions 1 and 2 (Why?):
1
A
1
A
=
Cond.1 Cond.2
n
+
= =
4.0
3 5
2
+
A
1
A
2
B
1
B
2
C
1
C
2
X
Y

6

4

2
PLOTTING OF MAIN EFFECT RESPONSE GRAPHS
Now, in order to visualize our main effect calculations, we plot
them on response graphs:
Plot the response graphs for factors B and C above, too.
If we wanted a smaller-is-better response, which level is
better for each factor? ans.
Which factor is the most significant? The least?

Why?
A
1
B
1
or B
2
C
1
C
B
Size of the delta between the levels (slope)
4.0
5.0
Note how we plot all 3
responses on one graph
to make the interpretation
more convenient
low oven temp (B
1
)

X
slow conveyor spd fast conveyor spd
A
1
A
2

30
20
10
40
Y
Cure
Quality
An interaction exists when a change in the level of one factor
effects how another factor influences the measured output.
For example, if Conveyor Speed is slower (A
1
), the effect of Oven Temperature, when
changed from high (B
2
) to low (B
1
), has a positive effect on the quality of cure; but when
Conveyor Speed is faster (A
2
), the effect of Oven Temperature changing from high to low
is negative on the quality of cure.
WHAT IS AN INTERACTION?
Qi
2
, 2002
+
-
high oven temp (B
2
)
1 3 2 5 4 7 6
2 1 6 7 4 5
3 7 6 5 4
4 1 2 3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6 1
7
3 5 2

A
B A X B
Triangular Table for the L
4
and L
8
2-level OAs:
USE OF TRIANGULAR TABLES

FOR DESIGNING INTERACTIONS
How would you assign C X D in addition to A X B?
Qi
2
, 2002
Cols
If we want to study or isolate an
interaction, we need to assign it to
a column in an array (instead of
assigning a main effect). This
table was developed by Dr.
Taguchi to help assign interactions
to the correct columns in an L
4

and in an L
8
. This table shows the
interacting column relationships.
The bold numbers along the top
and along the diagonal are column
numbers to which the main effects
(e.g., A and B) would be assigned.
The numbers in the inside of the
table are the columns to which the
interaction (AXB, or AB) would be
assigned.
Once you assign the main effects to
their columns (5 and 6 for example),
then their interaction can only go in
one place (column 3), according to
where they intersect in this table.
Note: you cannot find another set of 3 interacting columns that do not use
columns 3, 5, or 6. Try it.
back to interaction effect proof
Column B C C A D E F
Condition 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Data
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
3 1 2 2 1 1 2 2
4 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
5 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
6 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
7 2 2 1 1 2 2 1
8 2 2 1 2 1 1 2
B
X
ANALYSIS OF AN INTERACTION EXAMPLE (Contd.)
Next, we average the response data for each of the four factor-level
combinations of the interaction.
38
42
23
17
21
24
15
19
B
1
C
2
:

B
2
C
1
:
B
2
C
2
:
(23 + 17)/2 = 20.0
(21 + 24)/2 = 22.5 (15 + 19)/2 = 17.0
The level average of B
1
C
1
is (38 + 42) 2 = 40.0.
What are the level averages (& formulas) for B
1
C
2
, B
2
C
1
, and B
2
C
2
?
B1C1 bar is calculated
by averaging together
the data for conditions 1
and 2, where, and only
where, both factors B
and C were tested at
level 1.
Next we will graph these 4 plot points for the interaction.
DESIGN LAYOUT L
8
(2
7
) X F
2
Column A B C D E F G Response Data
Condition 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 R/M Lot 1 R/M Lot 2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Y
1
, Y
2
, Y
3
Y
4
, Y
5
, Y
6
2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
3 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 - -
4 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 - -
5 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 - -
6 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
7 2 2 1 1 2 2 1
8 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 Y
43
, Y
44
, Y
45
Y
46
, Y
47
, Y
48

Is this is a 1-, 2-, or 3-way design?
Why?
How might it be used?
2-way
2 groups 1 inside OA and 1 outside factor
parameter design
Column
Condition 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
3 1 2 2 1 1 2 2
4 1 2 2 2 2 1 1
5 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
6 2 1 2 2 1 2 1
7 2 2 1 1 2 2 1
8 2 2 1 2 1 1 2
RANDOMIZATION
It is generally recommended to run your
conditions in random order. The reason
why will now be demonstrated. Lets say
you decide to run in standard order, which
is 1, 2, 3, 4, and so on. And lets further
say that you can only run the first 4
conditions in the cool, dry morning and the
last 4 in the hot, humid afternoon. Next,
you collect data and analyze it, to find out
that the first column was the most
significant. Can you be sure it was the
factor assigned to that column or the
ambient conditions that caused the
changes in the measured response?
Running in a random order would minimize
(but not eliminate) that risk of an unwanted
factor coinciding with the levels of a
column. Hopefully, the noise would be
scattered among the levels of the factors.
GRAND, EXPECTED AND LEVEL AVERAGES
32.0
29.0
28.5
25.5
27.5
30.0
A B
2

A B
2

A A
1

A C
1

A A
1

A C
1

A
1
A
2
B
1
B
2
C
1
C
2

= 33.5
T
n
= 28.75
1. Graphical Solution:
2. Calculated Solution:
(e.g., A A
OPT.
= A
1
- )
T
n
= 28.75 + .25 + 3.25 + 1.25 = 33.5
= + (A
OPT.
- ) + (B
OPT.
- ) + (C
OPT.
- ) + - - -
T
n
T
n
T
n
T
n
A 2 2.00 1.00
B 2 .67 .33
C 2 50.67 25.33
D 2 8.67 4.33
(e)

0
e
2
0
Total 8 62.00
ANOVA BEFORE POOLING
Sum of Mean F Percent
Factor df Squares Squares Ratio Contrib.
S V F
4 2.67
At this point we have no way to estimate the denominator of the F ratio, the within
variation. For this we will have to pool one or more of the least significant columns
into error to come up with an error estimate. Note that experimental error refers to
unexplained variation, not any kind of a mistake. For this analysis, lets pool factors
A and B into pooled error, (e). We will pool both the degrees of freedom and the
sum of squares for the insignificant column(s).
USING STATIC SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIOS TO MEASURE VARIATION
Among many available Static S/N ratios are three of the most common:
1. Nominal is Best (Case I), the most common S/N ratio
q
N
= +10 log
10
(MSD)
N

where (MSD)
N
=
m e
e
(S V ) 1
n V
INTRODUCTION TO DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS
Lesson 6 Intermediate Analysis of Results II
Objectives

Attendees will be able to
- Calculate ANOVA values for a simple design
- Design and analyze an experiment using parameter design
- Calculate static S/N ratios for a parameter design
- Identify and use tuning factors in a 2-step analysis
- Use response tables

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