Energy for Sustainability

Randolph & Masters, 2008

Chapters 1:
Energy Patterns & Trends
 Energy for Sustainability
 Sustainability:
 patterns of economic, environmental, and social
progress that meet the needs of the present day
without reducing the capacity to meet future
needs.
 Sustainable energy
 patterns of energy production and use that can
support society’s present and future needs with
least life-cycle economic, environmental, and
social costs.
Nobel Laureate Richard Smalley’s top ten priority
problems in the world’s quest for sustainability:

10. Population
9. Democracy
8. Education
7. Disease
6. Terrorism and War
5. Poverty
4. Environment
3. Food
2. Water
1. Energy
 Why is Energy #1?
 Abundant, available, affordable, clean, efficient and secure
energy would enable the resolution of all of the other problems.
 We need energy for sustainability.
 We need for energy to maintain order in the world’s systems
because of the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics:
 Matter and energy tend to degrade into an increased state of disorder,
chaos or randomness, a state of increased Entropy
 Only through a flow of quality energy through the system (and a
corresponding flow of less quality energy out) can order and structure be
created. A constant flow of energy is required to maintain that order.
 Nature and society on Earth are able to produce order and structure only
through their ability to acquire energy.
 Nature uses the plant photosynthesis to acquire energy for all living things.
 Society uses energy systems and mostly the stored fossil energy from
those plants millions of years ago to acquire energy for civilization.
We have an energy problem.
Simply put, it has three components:
 Oil
 40% of our energy still comes from petroleum,
 reserves are concentrated in the volatile Middle East, and
 the date when global oil production will peak looms closer.
 Carbon
 global climate change is upon us, and
 we are still 80% dependent on carbon-emitting fossil fuels
 Global Demand Growth
 the developing world needs energy;
 China's energy use is doubling every 9 years
…our energy problem is complicated by
three factors:
 Slow Progress toward Alternatives
 to oil, carbon, and demand growth
 Change is Hard
 because of uncertainty, social norms, and vested
interests
 Time is Short
 the time to act was yesterday.
 Solutions?
 Improve efficiency of energy use to reduce
demand growth

 Replace oil with other sources

 Increase carbon-free energy sources

 Reduce fossil fuel use and/or sequester carbon
emissions

…focus of this course is on efficiency & renewable

energy….Why?
 Pacala & Socolow (2004) Carbon Stabilization Wedges
• Need Seven 1-GtC/year wedges by 2054 to be on road to stabilization
• Possible sources of wedges:
4 - energy efficiency
4 - renewable energy
3 - CO2 capture & storage
2 - forestry and agricultural soils
1 - nuclear power
 How?
 Advance sustainable energy Technologies

 Consumer and community Choice for efficiency,

conservation, non-carbon energy

 Public Policies to
 Advance sustainable energy technologies
 Enhance consumer and community choice
 Focus on three sectors:
 Buildings:
 1/2 of our energy use today
 40% of carbon emissions

 Transportation:
 1/3 of our energy use today
 2/3 of our oil use
 32% of carbon emissions

 Electricity:
 40% of energy and growing
 52% from coal, 20% nuclear, 16% gas, 12% renewables
 39% of carbon emissions
Aside on Energy,
Power, Units,
Conversion

 Energy is the
capacity to do
work

 Power is the rate

of energy use or
energy/time
Energy Units and Conversion
Example:
Using dimensional analysis and conversion factors, calculate how many
equivalent Btus, watt-hours, and barrels of oil there are in 10 metric
tons of coal?

10 Mt coal x 2200 lb x st x 25 x 106 Btu = 550 x 106 Btu

Mt 2000 lb st coal

550 x 106 Btu x kwh x 1000 wh = 161 x 106 watt-hours

3414 Btu kwh

550x 106 Btu x bbl oil = 94.8 bbl oil

5.8 x 106 Btu
Global Energy Trends
 Demand Growth: >2% per year
 High dependence on fossil fuels
 Inequitable distribution of energy use
 Huge appetite in developing world
Growing Demand for Energy
2005: 468 Q
World Energy by Type
Fossil Fuels dominate
Global Growth of Population, Energy, GDP 1800-2000
Energy, Population, GDP, CO2 up ↑
Energy/cap <-->, Energy/$GDP down ↓
 Energy Indicators, 2005
Energy is not equitably distributed
Energy Energy Energy % Pop % % % % CO2
Cap GDPmkt GDPpp Energy GDPmkt GDPpp

United 340 9.1 9.1 4.6% 21.8% 30.4% 19.2% 21.1%

States
Russia 212 86.7 14.9 2.2% 6.5% 1.0% 3.5% 6.0%
Japan 177 4.5 6.5 2.0% 4.9% 13.8% 6.0% 4.4%
China 51 35.8 7.9 20.3% 14.5% 5.2% 14.7% 18.9%
Bangla- 5 11.8 1.1 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
desh
World 72 12.7 8.0 6,445 463 43,920 55,500 28,193
units M Btu 1000Btu 1000Btu million Quad billion $ Mill. MT
cap $GDP $GDP Btu billion $
U.S. Energy Production & Consumption

Growing net import gap

U.S. Energy Use by Sector
Industry flat, others growing
U.S. Energy
Use by Fuel
U.S. Energy Flow, 2006
U.S. Energy Use Indicators
U.S. Energy Use Indicators
GDP way up

Energy & Pop

up

Energy/cap flat

Energy/GDP way down

 The Good News:
Improved Efficiency of U.S. and (World) Economy (Energy/
$GDP)
Energy Intensity in the United States 1949 - 2005

25.0

20.0
If intensity dropped at pre-1973 rate of 0.4%/year
thousand Btu/$ (in $2000)

15.0

Actual (E/GDP drops 2.1%/year)

10.0

5.0

0.0
1949

1959
1961
1963

1975

1979
1981
1983

1991
1993
1995
1997
1951
1953
1955
1957

1965
1967
1969
1971
1973

1977

1985
1987
1989

1999
2001
2003
2005
Art Rosenfeld
U.S. Electricity Energy Flow
Primary and End-Use energy
Primary Energy

Losses

End Use Energy

U.S. Primary Energy for Electricity Generation
Big growth (2%/y), 70% fossil fuels
Specific Fuels for U.S. electricity
52% coal, 20% nuclear
Energy Sources for Residential Buildings
Largest requirement: “Electrical Losses”
U.S. Transportation Energy: 95% Petroleum
U.S. Energy
Production
Crude
by Fuel: Oil

Crude Oil
Decline
U.S Petroleum:
domestic production down, imports up