PROBABILITY

Mutually Exclusive Events

Two events are mutually

exclusive if they cannot

occur at the same time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common).

Aces and Kings are Mutually Exclusive (can't be both)

Hearts and Kings are not Mutually Exclusive (can be both)

Check these out!

From the examples below, please determine whether it is mutually exclusive event or not. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Cards: Kings and Hearts Turning left and turning right Tossing a coin: Heads and Tails Cards: Kings and Aces A die: even and odd number

Addition of Probabilities
When two events (call them "A" and "B") are Mutually

Exclusive it is impossible for them to happen together:

P(A and B) = 0 But the probability of A or B is the sum of the individual probabilities:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 1
A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is either 7 or 11? Solution:
Six outcomes have a sum of 7: (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1) P(7) = 6/36 Two outcomes have a sum of 11: (5,6), (6,5) P(11) = 2/36 The sum of the numbers cannot be 7 and 11 at the same time, so these events are mutually exclusive. P(7 or 11) = P(7) + P(11) = 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 = 2/9

Not Mutually Exclusive

Now let's see what happens when events are not Mutually Exclusive. Example: Hearts and Kings

Hearts and Kings together is only the King of Hearts:

But Hearts or Kings is: all the Hearts (13 of them) all the Kings (4 of them)

But that counts the King of Hearts twice! So we correct our answer, by subtracting the extra "and" part:

16 Cards = 13 Hearts + 4 Kings - the 1 extra King of Hearts

As a formula this is:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

"The probability of A or B equals the probability of A plus the probability of B minus the probability of A and B"

Example 2
A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the numbers rolled is either an even number or a multiple of 3? Solution:
Of the 36 possible outcomes, 18 are even sums. P(even) = 18/36 = 1/2 Sums of 3, 6, 9, and 12 are multiples of 3. There are 12 sums that are multiples of 3. P(multiple of 3)= 12/36 = 1/3 However, some of these outcomes appear in both events. (not mutually exclusive) The sums that are even and a multiple of 3 are 6 and 12. There are 6 ordered pairs with these sums. P(even AND a multiple of 3) = 6/36 = 1/6 P(even OR a multiple of 3) = 18/36 + 12/36 - 6/36 = 24/36 = 2/3

What is your conclusion??

Mutually Exclusive Events Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have no outcomes in common). Non-Mutually Exclusive Events Two events are nonmutually exclusive if they have one or more outcomes in common.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

Taking colored marbles from a bag: as you take each marble there are less marbles left in the bag, so the probabilities change. We call those Dependent Events, because what happens depends on what happened before

But otherwise they are Independent Events, independent Events are not affected by previous events. "Probability" (or "Chance") is how likely something is to happen. So how do we calculate probability? Probability of an event happening = Number of ways it can happen /Total number of outcomes

Two or More Events you can calculate the chances of two or more independent events by multiplying the chances. Notation We use "P" to mean "Probability Of" . So, for Independent Events:

My Dog Ben is given 11 biscuits for breakfast. 7 of them are black, 3 are red and 1 is yellow. What is the probability that the first biscuit is red and the second is black? P = P (first biscuit is red) x P (first biscuit is black) = 3/11 x 7/10 = 21/110

Probability is: (Number of ways it can happen) / (Total number of outcomes). Dependent Events (such as removing marbles from a bag) are affected by previous events. Independent events (such as a coin toss) are not affected by previous events. You can calculate the probability of 2 or more Independent events by multiplying.