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Contents
Introduction The Criminal Trial Problem Testing Components of the Criminal Trial Problem Setting Up A Statistical Testing Framework Basic Structure of a Hypothesis Test Critical Values & p-Values
Introduction
When studying the characteristics or behavior of phenomena, are our beliefs supported by facts? Hypothesis testing provides a statistical framework to answer We use samples of data to draw inferences about their parent populations
Hypothesis
A statement of what the researcher believes will be the outcome of an experiment or a study e.g. Penetration in cell phone industry is very high
Statistical Hypothesis
a formal structure used to statistically (based on a sample) test the research hypothesis A claim (assumption) about a population parameter e.g. The proportion of adults in this city with cell phones is more than 0.80
Testing Components of the Criminal Trial Problem Is the defendant guilty of murder?
evidence. This is what the jury has to determine by weighing the
The jury has to evaluate the testing hypothesis, which is: against,
Not guilty the evidence does not conclusively establish the defendants guilt
H0: The defendant is innocent The Trial Situation The Truth The Verdict Not Guilty Innocent Guilty
H1: The defendant is guilty The Hypothesis Test The Truth The Decision Do not reject H0 Reject H0 in favor of H1 Type I Error: False positive
Probability of Type I Error : a
Innocent
Guilty
Correct
Wrong
Guilty
Wrong
Correct
Convicting an innocent man (Type I Error) Letting a guilty man go free (Type II Error)
What about:
Type I & Type II Errors are inversely related Which type of error is easier to minimize? A Type II Error
NO
YES
Usually, but not always, contains an = sign Describes a condition in which the status quo is maintained, e.g., innocent until proven guilty The test procedure is used to evaluate evidence against it
The Alternative Hypothesis
This is the real testing hypothesis that describes the belief of the researcher Establishes a disparity of some kind (unequal, greater than, less than, different from) Challenges the status quo
The Level of Significance
Is the maximum tolerable probability of committing a Type I Error, denoted by a Is selected by the researcher before starting, based on risk tolerance Provides the critical values for the test
Basic Distribution
This is the distribution of the test statistic Typical distributions for testing properties of means are Z (standard normal) and Students t Typical distributions for testing variances are c2 and F
H 0: m = 3 H 1: m < 3 H 0: m = 3 H 1: m > 3
a
Left-tailed test
a
Right-tailed test
a/2
0
Critical Value(s)
Convert the sample statistic to a test statistic (e.g., Z-, t-, or Fstatistic) with a standard distribution Obtain critical value(s) from this distribution for the Level of Significance If the test statistic falls in the critical region, reject H0 If the test statistic falls in the acceptance region, do not reject H0
p-Value Method
Convert the sample statistic to a test statistic (e.g., Z-, t-, or Fstatistic) with a standard distribution The p-value is the chance of obtaining a test statistic more extreme (greater than or less than) the calculated one, given H0 is true If the p-value is less than the Level of Significance, reject H0 If the p-value is more than the Level of Significance, do not reject H0
Questions
????
Thank You