ECONOMICS RESEARCH DESK

July 10 2012
CURRENCY & COMMODITY DAILY

News
The scandal impairing confidence in the London interbank offered rate, a benchmark for $360 trillion in securities, may drive demand for interest-rate futures that NYSE Liffe U.S. will start offering this month Chinas inflation eased to a 29-month low and Premier Wen Jiabao said the government will intensify its response to the economys slowdown as growth wanes in Asian neighbors from Japan to Vietnam Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy may unveil a third austerity round within days as his six-month- old government tries to avoid a second bailout amid haem orrhaging tax receipts Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has found in Operation Twist a way to expand his record monetary stimulus without provoking his critic The worst U.S. drought since Ronald Reagan was president is withering the worlds largest corn crop, and the speed of the damage may spur the government to make a record cut in its July estimate for domestic inventories South Africa is joining countries from Australia to Turkey in revising tax laws to tap the $1 trillion market for Islamic debt for the first time as borrowing rates fall to a record

Market Roundup
MAJOR CURRENCIES Dollar Index EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CAD AUD/USD INDIA USD/INR EUR/INR GBP/INR JPY/INR INDICES Nifty Sensex Dow Jones S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 COMMODITIES Gold (USD/t oz.) Silver (USD/t oz.) Copper (Cents/lb) Crude oil (USD/bbl) Prior (1.00) FUND FLOW FII-Cash FII-Derivatives BUY 233.30 9,173.42 SELL
222.50

LTP 83.1610 1.2313 79.56 1.5527 1.0192 1.0208 LTP 55.9350 68.7800 86.6209 0.7009 LTP 5,275.15 17,391.98 12,736.29 1,352.46 5,627.33 6,387.57 3,156.80 LTP 1,589.10 27.44 343.15 85.99

1 DAY (%) 5 DAY (%) (0.26) 0.18 (0.13) 0.21 (0.04) (0.05) 1.58 (2.09) 0.06 (1.05) 0.21 (0.40)

TREND Bullish tone Bearish tone Bullish tone Bearish tone Bearish tone Bearish tone TREND Bearish tone Bearish tone Bearish tone Bearish tone TREND Bullish tone Bullish tone Bearish tone Bearish tone Bullish tone Bullish tone Bullish tone TREND Neutral tone Neutral tone Bearish tone Bearish tone IMPACT Positive Negative

1 DAY (%) 5 DAY (%) 0.87 0.28 0.55 0.07 0.92 (1.70) (0.29) 0.59

1 DAY (%) 5 DAY (%) (0.79) (0.74) (0.28) (0.16) (0.62) (0.35) (0.38) (0.07) (0.04) (1.12) (0.71) (0.24) (1.67) (2.57)

Todays Outlook
Short position can be taken in USD/INR as rupee likely to strengthen

1 DAY (%) 5 DAY (%) 0.65 1.95 0.65 1.82 (0.94) (0.61) (1.86) 1.21 NET 10.90
(233.18)

DATA RELEASES Industrial Production Court discusses motion to stop ESM

Time 14:00 13:30

Region UK Germany

Estimat e (2.10) -

9,406.60

USDINR
Rupee ended weak in the last session Rupee fell in tandem with other currencies as US dollar rose against other currencies due to weak global sentiment and dismal US job growth data The INR has a major support at 55.60 and major resistance at 56.95 The currency is trading below its 30 and 50 DMA and below the trend line of 56.60 Short position can be taken in USD/INR as rupee likely to strengthen

DOLLAR INDEX
The dollar index remain mixed in the last trading session Greenback traded in a tight range due to lack of data which resulted in low volatility in the marketplace The dollar has a major support 83.02 and major resistance 83.43 The index is trading above the trend line which is at 83.02 and also 30 DMA but above its 50 DMA Dollar index likely to come under mild pressure

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July 10, 2012

EURUSD
Euro stabilized after hitting a two year low yesterday A slight optimism was spotted in Euro ahead of the meeting

where Euro zone Finance ministers met to discuss steps to implement measures taken during the EU summit
It has a major support at 1.2245 and major resistance at 1.2300 It is trading above its 30 DMA below the 50 DMA and below

the trend line which is at 1.2300

Euro likely to gain slightly

NIFTY
Nifty fell in the last trading session Domestic market fell for second straight day as global growth worries and euro zone debt crisis continue to take tolls on sentiment Nifty has a major support at 5258 and major resistance at 5315 It is trading below the trend line which is at 5215 Market likely to remain choppy

GOLD
Gold prices continued its downward move in the last session Fragile sentiment as EU leaders are still far away from pinning down details on how to deploy fund for Spanish banks and strong demand for safe haven currency left gold directionless Gold has a major support at 1580 and major resistance at 1593 It is trading above its 30 DMA and 50 DMA and above the trend line which is at 1580 Gold prices likely to remain choppy

CRUDE
Crude oil was moderately up in the last session Oil rose on hope for more stimulus from China as inflation numbers cooled off and also due to supply concern from Norway Crude has a major support at 84.45 and major resistance at 85.95 It is trading above the trend line which is at 84.45 Crude oil to remain under pressure as Norway ended energy strike and crude oil import data from China dipped

COPPER
Copper price rose marginally in the last trading session Red metal rose on hope that China might ease their monetary policy, however concern that Euro leaders might fail to implement their measures, kept the gain limited Copper has a major support at 338 and major resistance at 345 It is trading above the trend line which is at 338 Copper likely to gain

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DISCLOSURES

July 10, 2012

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