European Commission Position Paper to Mock Council of the EU 2011 Arab Spring: what should the EU be doing to encourage

democracy and growth in the countries of North Africa and the Middle East?
What is at stake? We are in a period of historic change in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA). It is a moment of huge opportunity, for the people of the Middle East & North Africa to build more open societies based on the rule of law, with greater access to justice and economic opportunity. If this succeeds, it could see the greatest gain for human rights and freedom since the end of the Cold War. If, on the other hand, the Arab Spring falters it risks dangerous instability on Europes doorstep, a collapse back into more authoritarian regimes, conflict and terrorism. What are the facts? The underlying causes of the Arab Spring remain: a population that is overwhelmingly young and energetic, lacking jobs and a voice in their own societies. But without social, political and economic reform, the regions human development challenges will grow.

Corruption has been identified as the top driver of public discontent. Transparency International note that corruption is prevalent and widespread in the MENA countries, manifesting itself most frequently in the shape of both petty and grand corruption. According to UN estimates, the Arab countries will be home to some 395 million people by 2015 (compared to about 317 million in 2007, and 150 million in 1980). The most evident and challenging aspect of the regions demographic profile is its youth bulge. Young people are the fastest growing segment of Arab countries populations. Some 60 per cent of the population is under 25 years old, making this one of the most youthful regions in the world, with a median age of 22 years compared to a global average of 28. This young population has utilised new social media tools such as Facebook and Skype, the internet and satellite television and have now been exposed to modernising forces. Consequently, a gulf has opened up between this young population and existing, some may regard oppressive, regimes who are unable to deliver opportunities or the reality of a better way of life to their respective populations. Existing regimes fear the loss of power. They play their opponents one off another. When faced with internal unrest they pay off that dissenting voice. Tribal/clan politics play a big part in the region and should not be underestimated. UNDP Human Development Index for the region shows a steady upward move to a more urban population across the whole region. This matters to the EUs security and prosperity. The region is of strategic importance to the EU not only in economic terms (trade, energy and migration) but also politically (stability and security). As an example, more than 20,000 migrants, mostly economic, mainly from Tunisia and, to a lesser extent from other African countries, have managed 1

to enter the EU irregularly, reaching the shores of Italy (most to the island of Lampedusa) and Malta, both of which are under strong migratory pressure. What is the EU doing? One of the EUs greatest achievements was the integration of Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union. EU political and practical support was key in creating stable, friendly and prosperous partners, and new members of the EU. The EU has since been working to support its neighbours to the east and the south through the European Neighbourhood Policy, its main policy instrument for relations with that region, which has been refocused since the Arab Spring: The European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) was developed in 2004, with the objective of avoiding the emergence of new dividing lines between the enlarged EU and our neighbours and instead strengthening the prosperity, stability and security of all. This ENP framework is proposed to the 16 of EU's closest neighbours Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Egypt, Georgia, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Moldova, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Ukraine. Baroness Ashton, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Commission Vice-President and tefan Fle, EU Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighbourhood Policy, launched a new and ambitious European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) on 25 May 2011 following a years long review. On top of the 5.7 billion already allocated for the period 2011-2013, additional funding of 1.24 billion has been transferred from other existing resources. This represents an ambitious offer to Neighbourhood partners, holding out the prospect of substantial assistance and profound integration in return for meaningful political and economic reforms. On 10 June Baroness Ashton suggested the appointment of an EU Special Representative (EUSR) for the Southern Mediterranean, as part of the EUs response to the Arab Spring. The EUSR will enhance political dialogue between the EU and the Southern Mediterranean region, improving the EUs effectiveness, presence and visibility. The EUSR will work to strengthen democracy, the rule of law and good governance in the region, with particular focus on implementing the EUs human rights policy. In 2010 the EU allocated a total of 1.18 billion to the MENA region through the EU Instrument for Democracy and Human rights, EU Development Cooperation Instrument and the European Neighbourhood Policy Instrument. In 2010, the European Investment Bank (EIB), the EUs financing institution, invested a record 2.6 billion, a 60% increase on 2009, in countries under the Facility for EuroMediterranean Investment and Partnership (FEMIP), which covers Algeria, Egypt, Gaza/West Bank, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria and Tunisia. Total lending since 2002 has reached some 12 billion. About half that financing went to the private sector, which is a priority alongside the creation of an investment friendly environment in the region. This helped to support some 2,150 SMEs creating more than 30,000 jobs. The Bank is the biggest development lender in North Africa. 2

The Development Co-operation Instrument (DCI) has a global budget of 17 billion for the period 2007-2013. Along with other regions, the DCI covers EU assistance to Yemen, Iraq and Iran.

Should the EU do more? The EU has many policy instruments at its disposal trade, access to markets, financial support to elections, infrastructure investment, agriculture, health, youth and educational exchanges and, in future, mobility partnerships. Could more use be made of the full range of instruments? What next? The EU now has to implement the revised European Neighbourhood Policy. This will involve negotiating action plans with Partner countries in the MENA region, setting out the EUs offer to that country and the conditions that country will have to meet in order to receive support from the EU. The EU will also have to ensure that its member-states fulfil the EUs commitments under the ENP, especially improved market access for good from the region. Questions to consider 1. What more could the EU offer to support the Arab Spring? 2. Is the EU using the full range of instruments that it has to help the region? 3. Is it right to attach political conditions (such as a commitment to reform) to EU support? 4. How much should the EU set the agenda on what it does to support the Arab Spring, and how much should it be listening to voices from the region? Who should those voices be? Other useful information (you should also do your own research) Transparency International: http://www.transparency.org/ United Nations Development Programme: http://arabstates.undp.org/subpage.php?spid=14 European Neighbourhood Policy: http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/welcome_en.htm European Investment Bank: http://www.eib.org/ EuropeAid: http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/index_en.htm The European Neighbourhood Policy. Council of the EU: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/gena/98790.p df http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/122917. pdf http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/en/gena/80951.p df http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/com03_104_en.pdf 3

http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/com_11_303_en.pdf http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/com07_774_en.pdf http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/com06_726_en.pdf http://ec.europa.eu/world/enp/pdf/strategy/strategy_paper_en.pdf Task Force for the Southern Mediterranean. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/122454.p df A Partnership for Democracy and Shared Prosperity with the Southern Mediterranean. http://eeas.europa.eu/euromed/docs/com2011_200_en.pdf European Endowment for Democracy. http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/122917. pdf The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights. Council of the EU:: http://eurlex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2006:386:0001:0011:EN:PDF