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Agro Input- Seed 4.56 103.63 137.02 355/196 27698 KSCL IN KVRI.BO
Returns (%) Strategic shift in unique business model The company is one of the prominent hybrid seed players of India with huge product portfolio of more than 45 hybrid verities. The top-line of the company was heavily contributed by Corn and sunflower but after 2007 the company has shifted its focus to the BT cotton seeds and the contribution of BT cotton to the topline is 25% during FY 10 from 10% in FY 07. The market share of the company is just 2% potential for the cotton seeds business. Capex will fuel future growth The company has invested more than Rs 60 Crs in recent past. This capex is enough to take top line to Rs 400 Crs in years to come from the present Rs 160 Crs. The capex includes Strategic green field expansion at Pamulparthi village, warangal Mandal, Medak district with state of art facility for utilizing cob drying, seed processing and cold storage on owned farmland of 29 acres. PRICE PERFORMANCE
Sources:- Company, Anagram research
1mnth
Absolute Relative 13% 2%
3 mnth
18% 11%
6mnth
17% 14%
12mnth
38% 15%
in FY 10 while
cotton is contributing more than 25% to the top line. It shows huge
Valuation
The KSCL has historically traded at 15X earnings. The stock is currently trading at 9X and 7X on there FY 11E and FY 12E. The company shows very attractive forward EV/EBIDTA of 7.1X on its FY 12 earnings. The P/ E and EV/EBIDTA of company is trading at discount of 22% to its peers like Advanta and Camson bio. We recommend a Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs 450. Y/E Mar (Rs. Crs.) Net Sales (Rs Crs) Growth (%) EPS (RS.) EBIDTA (%) P/E (X) ROE(%) EV/EBIDTA ROCE (%)
Sources:- Company, Anagram research Source: Capitaline
Contd...
Initiating Coverage
Investment Rationale
Strategic shift in unique business model The company is one of the prominent hybrid seed players of India with huge product portfolio of more than 45 hybrid verities. The top-line of the company was heavily contributed by Corn and sunflower but after the 2007 the company has shifted its focus to the BT cotton seeds and the contribution of BT cotton to the top line is 25% during FY 10 from 10% in FY 07. Revenue shift KSCL is one of the prominent hybrid seed players of India with huge product portfolio of more than 45 hybrid verities.
Market Share
According to market share chart the market share of the company is just 2% in FY 10 while cotton is contributing more than 25% to the top line. It shows huge potential for the cotton seeds business. The company is likely to add some more contribution from the BT cotton business in FY 11. India is second largest producer of Cotton. The cotton crop was grown in 76.3 laks hector in 2004 it is now more than 93.7 laks hector area. This shows farmers turned to the cash commodity like cotton during the recent past. The production of cotton is doubled from 303 kg/ hectors in 2003 to 526 kg/ hectors. Although Cotton seed is a lower margin business due to some of the government control but it is offering huge volume growth for the company which will help company to improve its bottom line in absolute number terms. The company is having very unique business model offering almost every seeds. The product portfolio includes 12 maize, 6 cotton, 23 paddy,5 sunflower and other vegetables and sorghum seeds verities. Most of the domestic companies start by focusing on one crop, and then start diversifying as their key product is accepted in the market. The company has adopted very unique and dynamic kind of business model. It is offering many products so the company is flexible enough to offer a wide range of products to its customer.
KSCL is likely to add some more contribution from the bt cotton business in FY 11.
Initiating Coverage
Over 60% of the KSCL sales use to be contributed by the H1 of the year.
Since India is one of the largest producers of rice the company is expecting to have huge market potential for Bt rice after Bt cotton.
Contd...
3 3
27
th
October 2010
Initiating Coverage
Company Profile
The company is one of the few recognized agri-input companies in India. It is mainly into the business of production, processing and marketing of high quality hybrid seeds for different crops like corn, sunflower, cotton, paddy, grain sorghum, etc. and has recently forayed into micronutrients and bioproducts. The company also produces non-hybrid seeds, primarily for paddy. Segmental Revenue
As per chart corn cotton and paddy contribute almost 70% of the sales. The company generates most of the revenues during the first half of the year. Southern states mainly Karnataka and Andhra contribute the most in total sales.
Efficient R&D is backbone of any of the seed company. The company is having R&D facilities located at Ranga Reddy District are recognized by the Department of Science & Technology, Government of India. The R&D for breeding high performance hybrids and also value added micronutrients and bioproducts. The company is having an experienced and professionally qualified R&D team who are engaged in full time research. Germplasm (a seed database, with various combinations of traits possible in a specific crop) is the key differentiating factor for a seeds company, enabling it to roll out hybrids far more quickly to respond to a specific trait required in a crop for a particular region. Over time,Kaveri has consciously been enhancing its germplasm (either sourced from various universities and global bodies, or developed in-house) in multiple crops. Today it can boast of access to a wide range in various crops, thereby providing it with a competitive edge. The company try 8 to 10k combination to develop 1 or 2 traits. It takes almost 5 to 6 years to manufacture seeds commercially. Seed, being a biological entity has to be grown and cannot be manufactured. The planning of requirement of raw material for hybrid seeds is done one to two years in advance based on their own estimates of market demand for the future trend. After conducting GoT and Germination tests, the seeds are processed and packed for sale. The basic material is given to the farmer in the form of foundation seeds and farmer gives back the same upon multiplication as raw seed to company.
KSCL is having an experienced and professionally qualified R&D team who are engaged in full time research.
Over time, KSCL has consciously been enhancing its germplasm (either sourced from various universities and global bodies, or developed in-house) in multiple crops.
Initiating Coverage
Management Profile
Mr. G V Bhaskar Rao, Chairman& Managing Director Mr. Gundavaram Venkata Bhaskar Rao is one of the founder Promoters and has motivated the Company to succeed in this business. He has been the Chairman-cum-Managing Director of the Company. He is a Science graduate majoring in agriculture from Andhra Pradesh Agriculture University. His efforts towards growth and development have also ripened\through introduction of high yielding varieties of hybrid seeds in agricultural crops like corn, sunflower, paddy, grain sorghum, bajra, cotton and other vegetable seeds. Mrs. G Vanaja Devi, Executive Director Mrs. Gundavaram Vanaja Devi has been an Executive Director of the Company since its inception. She is one of the founder Promoters of the Company and along with her husband, Mr.Gundavaram Venkata Bhaskar Rao. She is an Arts graduate from Osmania University, Andhra Pradesh Mr. R Venu Manohar Rao, Executive Director Mr. Rangineni Venu Manohar Rao is one of the founder Promoters of the Company and has been an Executive Director of the Company since its inception. His main responsibility in the Company is marketing of the products. He has established a strong marketing network and sales management in the Company. Mr. C Vamsheedhar, Executive Director Mr. Chennameneni Vamsheedhar has been associated with the Company for the past seven years. He joined the Company as "Marketing Officer" and has risen through the ranks and was appointed as an Executive and Additional Director at the Board Meeting held on September 18, 2006. He has been instrumental in the expansion of sales and marketing efforts of the Company. Mr. C Mithun Chand, Executive Director Mr. Chennameneni Mithun Chand is an M.B.A. from Shiva Shivana Institute of Management. He joined Kaveri Agriteck as 'President' (Agriteck) and has significantly contributed in sales, administration and management by creating a core team for its products. He was appointed as an Executive and Additional Director at the Board Meeting held on September 18, 2006. He travels extensively, deals directly with field staff and dealers and tackles their problems and is a key driver of the sales team Mr. Gundavaram Venkata Bhaskar Rao is one of the founder Promoters and has motivated the Company to succeed in this business.
5 5
Initiating Coverage
Seeds
Commercial 15%
Saved 85%
Public 40%
Source : Company / Anagram Research
Private 60%
% Increase
Apparently the cost of the hybrid seeds is almost double than the saved seeds but their better productivity is making it better option than the saved seeds. Farmers can earn 25% more yield by applying hybrid seeds. Hybrid seeds makes plant pest and weed resistant which is an added advantage.
Hybrid seeds makes plant pest and weed resistant which is an added advantage.
Initiating Coverage
Open Pollinated (OP) Seed production process
Initiating Coverage
Financial Analysis
Attractive fundamental amongst all peers The company enjoys strong fundamentals against its all peers. All the comparative multiple analysis parameters like P/E, EV/EBIDTA and P/BV are showing that company is in better shape. The seed companies use to offer very few number of seed crops. It is likely to give very stagnant kind of growth but unlike other players Kaveri Seed is offering a wide seed in its product portfolio which provides flexibility and bigger market to sell their product to the company.
Du-Pont Analysis
2008
PAT/PBT (Tax Effect) PBT/PBIT (Int. Effect) PBIT/Sales(PBIT Margin) Sales/T.A(Asset Trnover) T.A/N.W (Fin. Leverage) ROE %
Sources:- Company, Anagram research
2009
84% 93% 24% 1.0 1.1 20%
2010
93% 95% 20% 1.0 1.2 21%
2011E
93% 95% 19% 1.1 1.3 23%
2012E
93% 96% 19% 1.2 1.2 23%
Initiating Coverage
The company is enjoying good business with the healthy operating margin of 22% and NPM of 18%. As company has shifted its strategy and aggressively increasing Cotton seeds sales which will help to increase the sales volume and sales number in absolute term but being a lower margin business the company is likely to face marginal down fall in operating profit and NPM. The top line of the company is likely to grow up to Rs 295 crs in 2012 from just 97 Crs in 2008. EBIDTA of the company will register CAGR of 34% by 2012 to Rs 60 Crs from Rs 25 Crs in 2008 in absolute terms.
KSCL is enjoying good business with the healthy operating margin of 22% and NPM of 18%.
Forward PE Band
9 9
Initiating Coverage
Revenu Distribution
The company has registered robust growth of 48% to Rs 148 Crs against Rs 100 Crs topline growth in Q1 last year, which is mainly attributed to BT cotton seeds segment performance which witnessed double volume growth. The operating profit of the company is also up to Rs 36 Crs from Rs 26 Crs reflecting the sales volume growth.However there is decline of 200 bps in operating margin on the back of shift in crop acrage to lower margin product like BT cotton from maize and sunflower. The company has registered bottom line growth of 35% to Rs 31 Crs against Rs 23 Crs.
(Rs crores) Net Sales Expenditure Other op. income EBITDA Depreciation Core EBIT Other income Interest Exceptional item PBT Tax Adj PAT Mat. cost/Sales Emp. cost/Sales Other exp/Sales Tax rate EBITDA Margin Net Profit Margin Equity EPS
YoY 48%
Q4FY10 13 12 0
QoQ
37% 32%
1 1 -1 2 0 0 1 0
0 39% 18% 40% 6% 1% 13.7 0.12 -26% -90% 13% 338% 1473%
10
Initiating Coverage
Valuation
KSCL is a prominent player of hybrid seeds in India. The Company is catering to mainly to the south India. The company is increasing its foot print to the rest of the India and international territory is still unexplored territory for the company. Moreover KSCL has made one strategic move and concentrating more on the sales of BT cotton which provides really huge opportunity to the company. The company will be one of the key beneficiaries if the BT Brinjal controversies get resolved. The company has also started working for the rabi season seeds as well which will be reflected in to the top line of the company. The stock has historically traded at 15X earnings and it is currently trading at 9X and 7X on there FY 11 and FY 12 Earning. The company shows very attractive forward EV/EBIDTA of 7.1X on its FY 12 earnings. The P/E and EV/EBIDTA of company is trading at discount of 22% to its peers. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs 450.
11 11
Initiating Coverage
FY10
163.7 33% 65.4 61.5 0.0 126.9 36.8 22% 4.1 32.6 20% 1.8 0.3 31.1 19% 2.1 29.0 18% 0.0 29.0
FY11E
229.0 40% 99.4 78.7 0.0 178.2 50.8 22% 6.8 44.0 19% 2.1 0.3 38.9 17% 3.0 35.9 16% 0.0 35.9
FY12E
296.5 29% 137.8 95.4 0.0 233.2 63.3 21% 8.3 55.0 19% 2.2 0.3 49.7 17% 3.7 46.0 16% 0.0 46.0
Particulars
Source Of funds
FY09
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
Equity Share Capital Total reserves Total Shareholders Fund Total Debt
Total liability
146
196
228
270
Application of Fund
Total Assets
146
196
228
270
Financial Ratios
FY10
31.1 4.1 1.8 0.3 36.7 -14.4 -2.1 20.3 -34.0 0.0 0.3 -33.6 0.0 -3.2 29.6 -5.5 -1.8 19.1 5.7 14.0 19.7
FY09
27.1 3.2 1.9 1.3 31.0 -20.0 -2.5 8.5 -45.2 19.7 0.9 -24.6 0.0 -3.2 -4.3 20.0 -1.9 10.6 -5.5 19.5 14.0
FY11E
42.3 6.8 2.1 0.3 50.8 -25.8 -3.0 22.1 -6.8 -3.0 0.3 -9.5 0.0 -3.2 -1.0 -3.0 -2.1 -9.3 3.3 19.7 23.7
FY12E
53.1 8.3 2.2 0.3 63.3 -20.6 -3.7 39.0 -8.3 -7.0 0.3 -15.0 0.0 -3.2 -1.0 -4.0 -2.2 -10.4 13.6 23.7 37.9
Particulars
Market price (Rs) EPS RS. OPM% NPM%
FY09
330.0 18.2 25% 19%
FY10
330.0 21.2 22% 18%
FY11E
330.0 28.7 22% 17%
FY12E
330.0 36.1 21% 17%
ROE % ROCE % Book Value's per share P/E Ratio P/BV EV/EBIDTA
Leverage Ratios Debt-Equity Ratio Interest Cover Ratio 0.2 15.2 0.3 18.2 0.2 21.6 0.2 25.0
Working capital ratios Debtor Days Inventory Days 116 147 92 227 78 227 80 227
12
Initiating Coverage
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