WNDI 2008 1

Solar Power Aff Scholars

Solar Power Aff Scholars

Solar Power Aff Scholars............................................................................................................................................1
Solar Power Aff Scholars...............................................................................................................1
A2: Palladium DA – Silicon no link...........................................................................................................................2
A2: Palladium DA – Silicon no link..............................................................................................2
A2: Palladium DA – platinum replacement................................................................................................................3
A2: Palladium DA – platinum replacement.................................................................................3
A2: Russian interest rates............................................................................................................................................4
A2: Russian interest rates.............................................................................................................4
A2: Russian interest rates............................................................................................................................................5
A2: Russian interest rates.............................................................................................................5
A2: Russian interest rates............................................................................................................................................6
A2: Russian interest rates.............................................................................................................6
A2: Japan econ impact................................................................................................................................................7
A2: Japan econ impact..................................................................................................................7
WNDI 2008 2
Solar Power Aff Scholars

A2: Palladium DA – Silicon no link

No link – solar panels can use Silicon
American Elements “Polycrystalline Silicon,” 5/28/2008 http://www.americanelements.com/simspx.html
Polycrystalline Silicon for solar energy applications includes p-type and n-type silicon. Find Safety and Research information below.
Silicon-based photovoltaic cells (PV Cells) for solar energy are fabricated from a positively charged or p-
type silicon layer underneath a negatively charged or n-type silicon layer. These layers can be produced from casted polycrystalline
material sold under the AE Solar Energy group. Most silicon-based PV solar cells are produced from polycrystalline silicon with single
crystal systems the next most common. Silicon Metal is also available as single crystal, amorphous silicon, disc, granules, ingot, pellets,
pieces, powder , rod, sputtering target, wire, and other forms and custom shapes. Ultra high purity and high purity forms also include
submicron powder and nanoscale powder. Polycrystalline Silicon is generally immediately available in most volumes.
Technical, research and safety (MSDS) information is available. Silicon is a Block P, Group 14, Period 3 element. The electronic
configuration is [Ne] 3s2 3p2. In its elemental form silicon's CAS number is 7440-21-3. The silicon atom has a radius of 117.6.pm and
it's Van der Waals radius is 210.pm. Silicon is one of man's most useful elements. It makes up 25.7% of the earth's crust,
by weight, and is the second most abundant element, being exceeded only by oxygen. The Czochralski process is
commonly used to produce single crystals of silicon used for solid-state or semiconductor devices. Silica, as sand, is a principal
ingredient of glass, one of the most inexpensive of materials with excellent mechanical, optical, thermal, and electrical properties.

No link – Silicon
American Elements “Solar Energy,” 6/2/2008 http://www.americanelements.com/AEsolarenergy.html
The history of solar energy materials began in the 1970s with the first silicon-based photovoltaic (PV)
cells. These basic cells were created by doping silicon to form two oppositely charged layers. A positively charged or p-type layer
underneath a negatively charged or n-type layer. In first configurations the p-type layer was doped with Boron to create the positive
charge and n-type layer was doped with phosphorous. When the sun's energy in the form of photons collects in the cell layers in a
volume sufficient to force electrons in the layer materials from their "Valence Band" to their "Conduction Band", electrons from the
layers are released. This energy threshold is referred to as the "Band Gap". These freed electrons naturally attempt to flow from the
negatively charge N-type layer to the positively charged P-type layer. For this reason, the P-type layer is also sometimes called the
"Absorption Layer" and the N-Type layer is called the "Emitter Layer". However, the boundary between these two layers, which is
called the "P-N Junction" or "Adhesion Layer" blocks their flow. Collection circuits are attached from the N-type layer to the P-type
layer to allow for the electrons to reach their target and complete the circuit. Energy in the form of electricity is collected or harvested
from this external circuit. These silicon based photovoltaic cells have gone through several generations of
development designed to reduce production costs. Originally the layers were produced by growing and slicing doped
single crystals of silicon. To save cost producers began casting shapes using polycrystalline silicon. While less expensive to produce,
efficiencies are also lower. A silicon single crystal may have as high as 30% efficiency; polycrystalline silicon might reach 10-15%. The
least expensive approach but also the least efficient cell (approximately 5%) is produced through thin film deposition of amorphous
silicon using sputtering techniques.
WNDI 2008 3
Solar Power Aff Scholars

A2: Palladium DA – platinum replacement

Their DA misunderstands the way metal markets are self-correcting – if palladium demand
causes prices to go up, investors switch to another metal and prices drop – price
fluctuations over the last 5 years prove
Melana Yanos. “Investing in Palladium: Palladium presents a less costly investment alternative to platinum,” 4/1
2008 http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/investing-in-palladium-51505.aspx
Palladium and platinum are both among the world’s scarcest metals, according to PalladiumDealer.com. Furthermore, frequent
production and supply problems in the two major sources of platinum and palladium—Russia and South Africa
—add to volatility in the metals’ markets, according to the CMI Gold & Silver dealer website. More than half of the world’s
annual supply comes from Russia alone, which has routinely withheld supplies of palladium from world markets
for its own political and economic gain, according to the website for broker company Superior Gold Group. Supply
disruptions can potentially result in extreme price swings for palladium, as evidenced by the panic that occurred in
early 2001 among auto manufacturers. “[Because of] supply disruptions and a resulting panic by auto manufacturers (most notably, Ford
Motor Co.), the price of palladium reached an all-time high of nearly $1,100 an ounce, approximately the same price as platinum at the
time,” according to the Superior Gold Group website. The price spike nearly crushed investor demand, according to CMI
Gold & Silver; however, palladium prices dropped back to $200 per ounce by the end of that year and
investment demand has since returned. In the past five years, prices have fluctuated from less than $200 per ounce
in March 2003 to $579 at the end of February 2008, according to Kitco.com. Recent prices are still significantly
higher than what they were five years ago. Palladium's spot price closed at $453 per ounce on March 25, according to
Kitco.com

It is also proven by the fact that producers just switch to platinum – answers their autos
scenario specifically and proves the Russia scenario is dumb because the run on palladium
prices will be short-term
Emanuel Balarie, Vice President, Investments at Euro Pacific Capital, advises high net worth individuals and
institutions on managed futures and commodity trading systems. “The Case for Palladium,” Fast Break, August 19,
2005 http://partners.futuresource.com/fbp/2005/0819.htm
From a cost-effective point of view, palladium catalytic converters are substantially cheaper. However,
as the charts above show, this has not always been the case. When palladium was at record highs, the
automobile industry switched to platinum based catalytic converters and in the process, accumulated a
substantial amount of reserves.. As the automobile industry starts to deplete its platinum reserves, they
will revert back to the cheaper palladium. In fact, this has already started to happen. Industry reports show
that demand for platinum from the North American automobile industry declined by 10 % in 2004.
Conversely, the demand for palladium increased by 20 % in 2004.
WNDI 2008 4
Solar Power Aff Scholars

A2: Russian interest rates

No risk of out-of-control inflation – Russia will float the rouble to stabalize rates
Reuters. “Russia rouble to be free-floating in 1-2yrs-c.banker,” 8/4, 2008
http://in.reuters.com/article/asiaCompanyAndMarkets/idINL435252620080804?sp=true
The rouble will be freely floating in just one to two years as Russia moves to inflation targeting, a senior
central banker was quoted as saying on Monday, suggesting the move could come faster than previously expected.
Central bank's first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev also told Pryamye Investitsii -- the corporate magazine of Russia's biggest bank
Sberbank (SBER03.MM: Quote, Profile, Research) -- that a change in Russian laws could help achieve inflation
targeting. Ulyukayev's comments come on the day that the rouble hit a new high of 29.26 versus a 0.45 euros and 0.55 dollars basket
against which the central bank manages its float. That took the rouble's gains for the year so far to around 1.2 percent. "The corridor is
already significantly wider than it was in the first quarter of this year, and this process will continue...During a relatively short space of
time (one to two years) we will achieve a full free float of the national currency," Ulyukayev was quoted as saying. Analysts in a
Reuters poll last week had forecast that the rouble would strengthen to 29.19 versus the basket by end-2008, taking its appreciation for
the year as a whole to 1.4 percent -- up from 1.01 percent in 2007. "Technically I think they are very well prepared for a move to
inflation targeting," said Elina Ribakova, chief economist for Russia at Citibank. "So in the future -- may be even in the near future --
we will see more volatility and strengthening (of the rouble)". The central bank has previously talked of a free float and inflation
targeting "in the medium term", whereas Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin in January said that this could happen within three years. "At
the moment the law about Russia's central bank envisages the responsibility of the regulator for maintaining the stability of the rouble,"
Ulyukayev said, noting that this was open to various interpretations. "Direct...affirmation by law of price stability as
the aim of the central bank would increase the effect of reaching goals on inflation." He said the central bank
had already developed a model which links the changes in monetary indicators to economic growth as a whole, and was using it in a
testing regime. The aim would be to eventually use the model's results in setting interest rates -- which are
a key tool for an inflation targeting regime.

Oil swamps their palladium link – palladium is one of MANY minerals, which ALL
combine to only be 1/5th of the market – proves we only effect a TINY fraction of Russia’s
economy – their author
Heather Connon, from Money Observer. “Waking giant,” Interactive Investor 6/27/08
http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=Markets&article_id=9937459
The surge in oil prices - 10 years ago oil was trading at just $10 a barrel; this year it has passed $135 - has
undoubtedly been a key factor in Russia's emergence as a global economic force. Despite a wave of
flotations in financial services, telecoms and other consumer industries, oil companies still account for half
of the stock market and the industry represents a quarter of GDP. Putin has managed the wealth well,
investing it in the Stabilisation fund, which reached $156.8 billion by the end of 2008 and is now being
divided between the Reserve fund and National Wellbeing fund
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Oil is not Russia's only resource. The country is also among the world's largest producers of gold,
palladium and nickel and has substantial reserves of commodities ranging from coal to diamonds.
Minerals and mining is the next largest stock market sector, accounting for a fifth of total market
capitalisation. The soaring income from these commodities is also helping finance an investment boom as
the authorities bid to reverse decades of under-investment in the country's infrastructure. Roland Nash, head of
research and chief strategist at Renaissance Capital, has lived in the capital since 1994. He says net investment has been negative since
the break-up of the Soviet Union, leaving the average age of its assets older than they were then: "With the huge wealth in the
Stabilisation fund, the debate is whether to invest that money in infrastructure. The problem is that this would fuel
inflation." Inflation is one of the biggest problems facing Putin, who has just moved from the post of president to prime
minister, and his successor Dmitry Medvedev. At almost 15%, it is already higher than in any other developing market
and, experts fear, rising sharply. That is not just because of rising food and fuel prices - although, with food accounting for 40%
of the average Russian's spending, it is a key factor - but also because of labour constraints. Russia's population is in decline and male
life expectancy averages just 58 years, leading to skill shortages. That is partly alleviated by immigrant labour - some estimate there are
as many ?as three million foreigners in Moscow alone - but is also pushing wages sharply higher. Putin has made it clear that he
is prepared to see the rouble rise further to control inflation, rather than rein back his commitment to
infrastructure spending. Huge amounts of that are needed: road and rail transport networks are extremely poor, while the housing
stock is outdated and in poor condition. Investment spending has been doubling in recent years, with the bulk of it going on roads and
airports.
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WNDI 2008 5
Solar Power Aff Scholars

A2: Russian interest rates

Their Connon link evidence proves that making Russia money by boosting palladium
prices is GOOD – the revenue will be used for infrastructure projects

Infrastructure projects are key to Russia’s economy

Shigeo Katsu, World Bank Vice-President for Europe and Central Asia. “Meeting Russia’s Infrastructure Gap,”
Sep 2007
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTPROGRAMS/EXTTRADERES
EARCH/0,,contentMDK:21481768~menuPK:64001880~pagePK:210083~piPK:152538~theSitePK:544849,00.html
The case for infrastructure development is strong and easy to make. Indeed, it has been at the center of Russian politics
ever since Peter the Great embarked on the process of Russia’s modernization. It drove Sergei Witte’s resolve to develop the railway
system and construct the Trans-Siberian railway from Moscow to Vladivostok that was completed in 1896 and opened the gateway to
the Pacific almost 200 years after St Petersburg had been founded as the country’s gateway to the west. And it was the major force
behind huge infrastructure developments of the Soviet era, such as major hydro-electric power systems. Today the case for
infrastructure is more valid than ever as Russia continues its quest to join the ranks of the most successful
economies. First and foremost, infrastructure development is key to economic growth. Good roads and
bridges expand market opportunities, lower the costs of goods and services, and enable countries to use
their productive capacity better. China’s development would not have unfolded had the country not
invested heavily in infrastructure. Singapore’s emergence as South East Asia’s economic hub is literally built on its excellence
in building and maintaining world class infrastructure, in particular its much acclaimed ports and airports. On the other hand, lack of
infrastructure has often hampered economic growth. For Latin America, it is estimated that the lack of
infrastructure investment there in the 1990s has cut long term GDP growth rates by 1 to 3 percent. Second,
surveys all over the world have shown that well-developed infrastructure helps attract foreign
investment and improves a country’s international competitiveness. And where infrastructure is
inadequate, businesses suffer and complain.

The real problem with Russia’s economy is lack of infrastructure – the current economy is
built on air
Tom Lasseter, “Russia worries about its high inflation,” McClatchy Newspaper July 17, 2008
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/164/story/44620.html
Dmitry Sorokin, a prominent economist in Moscow, said Russia's inflation generally was thought to be fueled by the infusion of cash
into the economy as well as the higher prices of oil and gas. But lurking beneath everything, he said, is the fundamental
problem that the country's infrastructure was never fully rebuilt after chronic underinvestment by the
Soviets, followed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and then the 1998 economic crisis. For instance, the total volume of
agricultural production in Russia in 2007 was roughly 25 percent less than in 1989, said Sorokin, the deputy
director of the economics institute at Russia's academy of sciences in Moscow. Why, then, is Russia's gross domestic
product — about $1.29 trillion last year — so high? "The answer is obvious. It's because of high oil prices, which have
given us money, but not products," Sorokin said. "I call it a GDP made of air; it's not true growth."

No risk of Russia’s economy collapsing – it’s insulated

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor. “Russian Economy Plagued by Inflation,”
05/02/2008 http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2008/02/06/russian-economy-plagued-by-inflation/
The Oil Stabilization Fund was supposed to inoculate Russia against the curse by siphoning revenues
out the domestic economy. Certainly it helps. There will be no repeat of 1998 default. Russia has paid
off its foreign debt. The oil fund ($157bn) and foreign reserves ($470bn) are enough to deflect anything
short of financial cataclysm.
WNDI 2008 6
Solar Power Aff Scholars

A2: Russian interest rates

Empirics prove no doomsday risk from Russian instability or economic decline
World Policy Journal, 12/22/03
Using extensive interviews with participants in all three administrations, and memoirs by former officials, they paint a compelling picture of officials often
over-whelmed by the challenge of an entirely new reality. The unexpected collapse of communism and of the Soviet Union, coming just after the GulfWar,
left them with no road map to understand how Russia and other post-Soviet states might develop.
Nightmare scenarios suggested
themselves: nuclear war between Russia and Ukraine; weapons proliferation on a terrifying scale; Yugoslav-
type ethnically based civil war on the territory of the former Soviet Union; mass starvation; economic
collapse--the ominous possibilities were endless. That these "dogs did not bark" is testimony to the
unwillingness of people in the post-Soviet space to engage in armed conflict and to Western assistance
that staved off famine and economic collapse. The failure of catastrophic scenarios to come about is one indicator of success--but if
one were to measure America's contribution to transforming Russia in more positive ways, the evidence is more mixed. If a minimalist definition of success
was the absence of catastrophe, the maximalist definition was the creation of a fully functioning democracy in Russia with a transparent market economy
and the rule of law. That has not happened yet, and it is unclear when it will. So far, there is no consensus about what would constitute a realistic timetable
for Russia's democratic development.

Russian economic decline doesn’t threaten the US economy

The Australian, 9/28/05
But it doesn't have to happen this way. What is known in the US Federal Reserve as the Greenspan
Doctrine holds that with a highly flexible economy and sophisticated financial markets, economic
shocks can be largely absorbed by changes in prices, interest rates and exchange rates, without sharp declines
in output and jobs, and without systemic failure in the financial system. Greenspan stated the doctrine again in a speech to US mortgage bankers yesterday.
And his closest colleague at the Fed, governor Donald Kohn,
recently gave examples of the way the interaction of more
sophisticated and diversified financial markets and better monetary policy has prevented or substantially
modified the impact of some quite large financial shocks on the US economy. His examples included the
sharemarket crashes of 1987 and 2001 and the Russian debt default of 1998.

Even if economic crisis causes political crisis, it won’t escalate—the 1998 crisis proves
David Kotz, teaches economics at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, Nov/Dec 1998,
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Economics/CapitalistCollapse_Russia.html
Despite the unprecedented economic depression, until recently Russian bankers kept getting richer and the stock market soared, buoyed by the lucrative
trade in Russia's valuable oil, gas, and metals. Western banks helped to finance the speculative binge that drove up Russian stock prices, making it one of the
world's best-performing stock markets in 1997. Then in the late spring of this year, Russia's stock market began to fall and
investors started to pull their money out of the country. The Clinton administration, fearing that Yeltsin's government would not
survive a looming financial crisis, pressed a reluctant IMF to approve a $22.6 billion emergency loan on July 13. This bailout proved
unsuccessful. Four weeks later the financial crisis resumed as investors fled and Russia's government had
to pay as much as 300% interest to attract buyers for its bonds. After Washington rejected Yeltsin's
desperate plea for still more money, Russia did the unthinkable: it was forced to suspend payment on its
foreign debt for 90 days, restructure its entire debt, and devalue the ruble. Panic followed, as Russia's
high-flying banks teetered on the edge of collapse, depositors were unable to withdraw their money,
and store shelves were rapidly emptied of goods. The financial collapse produced a political crisis, as
President Yeltsin, his domestic support evaporating, had to contend with an emboldened opposition in the parliament.
WNDI 2008 7
Solar Power Aff Scholars

A2: Japan econ impact

New monetary policy ensures continued Japanese growth – and they’ve been in a slump for
a DECADE with no impact
Courier Mail, 3-10-2006, “Regional Markets,” p ln
Stocks jumped more than 2.6 per cent yesterday as the Bank of Japan announced the end of its super-
easy monetary policy, relieving the market of uncertainty. The Nikkei 225 Index gained 409.42 points to
close at 16,036.91. The gains seemed to be driven both by bargain-hunting, as the market had fallen five of
the past six sessions, and the central bank's decision. Jitters about the outcome of the Bank of Japan's two-
day meeting had depressed the Tokyo market since last week, but yesterday's decision to change policy --
coming amid political pressure to hold off on tightening -- seemed to spur investor confidence. With
Japan emerging from a decade-long economic slump, the central bank abandoned the super-easy
monetary policy called ''quantitative easing'' it has kept for five years, saying it will gradually raise interest
rates and start to cut the excess cash in the banking system.

Japanese economy is empirically denied – massive crash in the 80’s

Bruce Wallace, LA Times, 3-10-2006, “Easy-Money Era,” p ln
Still, it is clearly a risky move for a central bank with a record of spectacular miscalculation. In the late
1980s, the bank kept the money spigots open as Japan's bubble economy and stock market headed
toward crashes from which they have yet to fully recover. And it has been heavily criticized for its
sluggish response to stimulating demand in the 1990s, as Japan's economy settled into a chronic
malaise.