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Seasonal Decomposition
Series Name:sales
Ratio of
Original
Series to
DATE_
Q1
Moving
Moving
Original
Average
Average
Series
Series
Series (%)
Seasonally
Smoothed
Irregular
Seasonal
Adjusted
Trend-Cycle
(Error)
Factor (%)
Series
Series
Component
23.000
94.7
24.281
24.563
.989
24.000
101.6
23.626
24.835
.951
29.000
25.0000
116.0
109.0
26.599
25.381
1.048
24.000
25.5000
94.1
94.7
25.352
25.805
.982
25.000
26.2500
95.2
94.7
26.393
26.249
1.005
27.000
26.2500
102.9
101.6
26.579
26.504
1.003
29.000
26.7500
108.4
109.0
26.599
26.976
.986
26.000
27.2500
95.4
94.7
27.465
27.525
.998
27.000
27.7500
97.3
94.7
28.504
28.165
1.012
29.000
28.5000
101.8
101.6
28.548
28.828
.990
32.000
29.2500
109.4
109.0
29.350
29.387
.999
29.000
29.5000
98.3
94.7
30.634
29.975
1.022
28.000
30.2500
92.6
94.7
29.560
30.387
.973
32.000
30.7500
104.1
101.6
31.501
30.924
1.019
34.000
31.0000
109.7
109.0
31.185
31.241
.998
1996
Q2
1996
Q3
1996
Q4
1996
Q1
1997
Q2
1997
Q3
1997
Q4
1997
Q1
1998
Q2
1998
Q3
1998
Q4
1998
Q1
1999
Q2
1999
Q3
1999
Q4
30.000
31.5000
95.2
94.7
31.690
31.641
1.002
30.000
31.7500
94.5
94.7
31.671
31.850
.994
33.000
32.0000
103.1
101.6
32.486
32.043
1.014
35.000
32.0000
109.4
109.0
32.102
31.883
1.007
30.000
31.7500
94.5
94.7
31.690
31.610
1.003
29.000
31.5000
92.1
94.7
30.615
31.483
.972
32.000
31.7500
100.8
101.6
31.501
31.919
.987
36.000
32.2500
111.6
109.0
33.019
32.791
1.007
32.000
33.2500
96.2
94.7
33.803
33.785
1.001
33.000
34.2500
96.4
94.7
34.838
34.643
1.006
36.000
35.0000
102.9
101.6
35.439
35.250
1.005
39.000
35.5000
109.9
109.0
35.771
35.757
1.000
34.000
36.0000
94.4
94.7
35.916
36.226
.991
35.000
36.5000
95.9
94.7
36.950
36.865
1.002
38.000
37.2500
102.0
101.6
37.408
37.809
.989
42.000
38.5000
109.1
109.0
38.522
39.106
.985
39.000
39.7500
98.1
94.7
41.198
40.756
1.011
40.000
41.5000
96.4
94.7
42.228
42.553
.992
45.000
43.7500
102.9
101.6
44.299
44.404
.998
51.000
45.2500
112.7
109.0
46.777
46.322
1.010
1999
Q1
2000
Q2
2000
Q3
2000
Q4
2000
Q1
2001
Q2
2001
Q3
2001
Q4
2001
Q1
2002
Q2
2002
Q3
2002
Q4
2002
Q1
2003
Q2
2003
Q3
2003
Q4
2003
Q1
2004
Q2
2004
Q3
2004
Q4
45.000
47.2500
95.2
94.7
47.536
47.892
.993
48.000
48.5000
99.0
94.7
50.674
49.297
1.028
50.000
49.7500
100.5
101.6
49.221
49.997
.984
56.000
50.5000
110.9
109.0
51.363
50.705
1.013
48.000
50.7500
94.6
94.7
50.705
50.749
.999
49.000
50.7500
96.6
94.7
51.729
50.557
1.023
50.000
50.0000
100.0
101.6
49.221
49.738
.990
53.000
49.5000
107.1
109.0
48.612
49.084
.990
46.000
48.7500
94.4
94.7
48.592
48.839
.995
46.000
49.0000
93.9
94.7
48.562
48.843
.994
51.000
48.7500
104.6
101.6
50.205
49.041
1.024
52.000
49.0000
106.1
109.0
47.694
49.183
.970
47.000
94.7
49.648
49.253
1.008
2004
Q1
2005
Q2
2005
Q3
2005
Q4
2005
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2006
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2007
Q1: The seasonal index for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4.
Quarter
SI (%)
Q1
94.7
Q2
101.6
Q3
109.0
Q4
94.7
21.781 + 0.623t
T49
T50
T51
T52
Q4: The forecast for the next four quarter from the last data.
Forecast= S x T
2008
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
49.52
53.74
58.35
51.25
Q6: The value and the graph of autocorrelation (ACF) for errors.
Autocorrelations
Series:error
Box-Ljung Statistic
Lag
Autocorrelation
Std. Error
Value
df
Sig.
.783
.135
33.786
.000
.526
.133
49.339
.000
.257
.132
53.113
.000
.040
.131
53.208
.000
.029
.129
53.258
.000
.011
.128
53.265
.000
.002
.127
53.265
.000
-.020
.125
53.291
.000
-.041
.124
53.401
.000
10
-.065
.122
53.687
10
.000
11
-.077
.121
54.097
11
.000
12
-.087
.119
54.629
12
.000
13
-.086
.118
55.162
13
.000
14
-.082
.116
55.658
14
.000
15
-.076
.115
56.093
15
.000
16
-.060
.113
56.372
16
.000
MSE = 272.6041; MSE need to be compared with value of MSE in other techniques. The smaller
MSE is the better technique.
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
error2
52
Valid N (listwise)
52
.00
Maximum
3405.03
Sum
14175.41
Mean
272.6041
Std. Deviation
775.07450
MPE = 7.5506; small value of MPE indicates that this technique is not biased which value is
closed to zero.
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
PerE
48
Valid N (listwise)
48
-13.87
Maximum
100.00
Sum
362.43
Mean
7.5506
Std. Deviation
28.81675