Professional Documents
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TR AN S P O R T/ L O G I S TI C S
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
Jim Wong
jim.wong@nomura.com
RUNNING
THEME
R E P O R T A N C H O R
Analysts
Jim Wong +852 2252 2195 jim.wong@nomura.com Makoto Murayama +81 3 5255 1755 m-murayama@frc.nomura.co.jp Shirley Lam +852 2252 2196 shirley.lam@nomura.com Jacinda Loh +60 3 2027 6889 jacinda.loh@nomura.com Justin Lee +82 2 3783 2338 justin.lee@nomura.com
Recent price consolidation may present buying opportunity Demand should outpace supply Currencies and oil hedging are significant swing factors SIA and CX quality plays, while EVA is a geared play
Nomura Anchor Reports examine the key themes and value drivers that underpin our sector views and stock recommendations for the next 6 to 12 months.
Any authors named on this report are research analysts unless otherwise indicated. See the important disclosures and analyst certifications on pages 145 to 148.
Nomura 14 June 2010
Airlines | A S I A P A C I F I C
TR AN S P O R T/ L O G I S TI C S
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
Jim Wong
jim.wong@nomura.com
RUNNING
THEME
Action
Recent share price consolidation on concerns about an economic slowdown in Europe could be seen as a buying opportunity for Asian airlines, as the major earnings driver of most of them is Asia-based demand. However, different airlines provide different exposure. EVA Air is most geared to a cargo recovery, SIA to an international premium passenger rebound and CSA to sustained domestic revival.
Catalysts
Recovery in international routes and impending 2Q10 results may be near-term catalysts, while high oil prices will be a negative for unhedged airlines. Anchor themes With Asian economies (led by China) expected to recover at a much faster pace than the US and Europe, airlines with hubs in Asia are expected to see a stronger recovery than their global peers.
Analysts
Jim Wong +852 2252 2195 jim.wong@nomura.com Makoto Murayama +81 3 5255 1755 m-murayama@frc.nomura.co.jp Shirley Lam +852 2252 2196 shirley.lam@nomura.com Jacinda Loh +60 3 2027 6889 jacinda.loh@nomura.com Justin Lee +82 2 3783 2338 justin.lee@nomura.com
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Contents
Recovery may not be entirely discounted Macro environment continues to recover Taiwanese and Korean airlines most exposed to cargo recovery Fleet age and forward fleet expansion Currency sensitivities differ significantly 3 7 15 16 21
CSA has largest local revenue/greatest foreign debt exposure; SIA the least 25 Chinese and Japanese carriers more focused on domestic routes ANA, MAS and CX most hedged for oil Core earnings strongest for SIA, CX, AC
Valuation methodologies and risks to our investment view
31 35 36
42
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Stock recommendations
670 HK
BUY
HK$3.95
1055 HK NEUTRAL
HK$3.61
Cathay Pacific
293 HK
BUY HK$18.18
passenger traffic, we also expect it to be more resilient than most Asian airlines in any downturn, given its flexible staff cost structure, minimal oil hedging and net cash position. With the overhang of a possible overpriced acquisition having diminished, we now find SIAs existing valuation of just 1.1x FY12F P/B as attractive, especially with the peer group at an average P/B multiple of 1.5x. Upgrade to BUY.
Malaysia Malaysia Airlines MAS MK BUY RM2.40 22 We see MASs turnaround story gaining traction with cost savings continuing to improve FY10F earnings, with a leg up in FY11F as the bulk of its new fleet arrives to drive its yield improvement strategy further. While headwinds remain in the form of competition and a potentially costly hedge, we premise our BUY call on the scope for upside coming from a low base with an added boost from its new fleet. (4.7) Despite trading close to trough-cycle valuations since 2007, AirAsias shares, we believe, will continue to languish near the historical level of 1.2x P/BV. Our NEUTRAL view is premised on its strong earnings (which, in our view, reflect AirAsias established market position), offset by potentially higher-than-expected gearing amid potential large write-offs and continued cashflow stress. 10.8 We believe Korean Airs fundamental recovery is well on its way and expect the company to post all-time high revenue and operating profit in FY10F. However, with high sensitivity to the won/US$ rate and higher oil price, Korean Airs earnings could deteriorate in the longer term. The company is fairly valued at the current level, in our view. 19.8 After suffering substantial losses from oil hedging contracts, traffic slump owing to the financial crisis in 2008-2009 and recent share placement, the worst is over, in our view. We expect EVA to see double-digit growth in traffic and yields in 2010F. Possible further increases in daily direct schedule flights and continued improvement in traffic bode well for EVAs prospects, we think. We have a BUY rating and price target of NT$21.50. 9.9 With profits likely to be low in 11/3 (FY10F), we derive our PT on the basis of an effective dividend yield, assuming that shareholder discount coupons are equivalent to the dividend. We expect ANA to restore a dividend of 1 per share on common stock in 11/3, which, together with shareholder benefits, equivalent to a dividend of 5, gives an effective dividend of 6 per share. We set our target price at 300, derived from a dividend yield of 2%, which is higher than the yield on long-term JGBs.
AirAsia
AIRA MK
NEUTRAL
RM1.20
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
With Asian airlines under our coverage having reported significant earnings recoveries in 2H09 and/or 1Q10 results, the recovery in the Asian airline industry should now be well recognised in the market. However, with hiccups, such as the volcanic ash cloud that effectively shut down Europe-related air traffic for a significant part of April 2010 and concerns over European economic recovery, the strong demand recovery in Asia is as yet unlikely to have been fully discounted in consensus estimates, in our view, arguably leaving room for potential upside surprises as calendar year 1H10 and/or 2Q10 results are announced.
Strong demand recovery in Asia is, as yet, unlikely to have been fully discounted, thus leaving room for upside surprise
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates, *FY09-12F numbers are used given March year-end, ** Numbers before adjustment of foreign exchange gains were used in previous reported net profit
7.68 NEUTRAL
Source: Nomura estimates, ^Bloomberg consensus, #Given negative equity in FY08 and FY09 for CEA, we use CSAs historical mid-cycle and peak cycle as a reference for CEA, * YE-March, hence FY11F-FY12F numbers are used, share prices as of 7 June, 2010
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Airlines China / Hong Kong Air China China Eastern Airlines China Southern Airlines Cathay Pacific Singapore Singapore Airlines Malaysia Malaysia Airlines AirAsia Korea Korean Airlines Taiwan EVA Airways Japan All Nippon Airways
Source: Nomura estimates, ++ Strong positive impact, + Positive impact, N Neutral, - Negative impact, - - Strong negative impact., *Albeit not against the US$
Source: Nomura estimates, ** YE-March, share prices as of 7 June 2010. (Note that we include A-shares for calculating market cap of Chinese airlines, while the company sections use only H-share price; ANAs market cap in the company section is in JPY, our number is in US$)
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
2010F 14.1 13.5 23.4 11.2 45.0 12.7 57.5 7.0 16.5 6.0 17.0 8.0 13.9 14.6 23.1 12.7 5.1 15.4 6.0 11.1 7.0 7.5 14.0 15.0 13.6 9.0 17.4 (5.5) 20.8 2.0 10.0 12.0 18.0 6.0 5.9 2.0 14.8 -
2011F 9.7 3.2 6.7 0.0 9.0 3.1 7.9 0.1 10.5 2.4 19.5 0.0 9.9 1.8 8.9 2.3 7.0 5.0 6.0 1.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 0.0 7.7 4.5 5.0 0.0 17.0 5.3 4.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 2.6 1.3 -
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
While the numbers mentioned are only those of Taiwanese airlines (which provide monthly yield numbers), they are representative of the yield recovery seen in the overall Asian airline industry as shown in the exhibits below.
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
CSA ANA (RMB (JPY cents) cents) 56.07 54.90 58.05 61.14 59.26 61.69 60.15 61.03 51.71 55.65 15.88 15.38 16.78 16.31 17.57 16.76 17.99 16.73 15.35 15.04
CEA (RMB cents) 55.68 59.29 57.89 62.99 59.77 63.03 61.86 62.65 50.75 56.58
Air China (RMB AirAsia MAS CX KAL cents) (RM sens) (RM sens) (HK cents) (US cents) 13.81 18.90 7.10 54.99 59.58 56.70 61.49 59.39 64.32 61.35 64.73 53.85 59.01 13.79 13.72 14.75 11.00 12.22 11.24 15.05 18.90 15.74 17.10 19.64 18.03 18.52 19.21 22.07 20.49 16.21 18.22 18.89 19.16 18.50 19.90 20.70 22.60 22.80 25.30 25.70 26.10 25.70 27.10 29.00 28.40 28.70 31.70 32.90 29.50 23.40 22.40 23.10 23.20 48.52 45.00 55.90 55.90 56.18 53.70 48.14 45.80 45.49 47.20 6.90 7.70 7.30 7.60 7.90 8.70 8.30 8.60 8.50 9.40 9.00 9.20 9.10 9.60 8.30 6.99 6.23 6.92 7.40 7.90
EVA Air (NT$ cents) 186.97 176.70 190.22 184.35 189.49 183.68 199.90 189.71 203.04 194.66 206.73 203.55 211.96 211.16 228.90 220.58 207.35 185.05 189.58 192.64 215.00
CAL (NT$ SIA cents) (S$ cents) 173.50 10.50 160.83 178.26 182.50 183.97 179.70 199.25 200.44 197.51 189.06 204.67 204.74 204.47 205.86 230.35 229.34 214.10 176.45 183.95 194.28 215.68 10.30 10.50 10.80 10.60 10.60 10.80 11.00 11.20 11.50 12.00 12.40 12.50 12.40 12.80 12.80 11.80 10.20 9.80 10.50 11.10
Source: Company data; half-yearly numbers are available for CSA, ANA, CEA, Air China and CX
While 1Q10 passenger yields for some airlines may still be down y-y, 1Q10 passenger yields for all are significantly up q-q and substantially higher than recent troughs.
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
CEA Air China (%) (%) 4 6 3 0 3 (1) (18) (10) 3 3 5 5 3 1 (12) (9)
AirAsia (%) (20) (11) (18) 2 72 29 52 30 (5) 18 12 12 14 (12) (5) (14) (6)
ANA (%) -
CEA Air China (%) (%) (6) 19 (7) (21) 8 3 (37) (15) 4 (7) (13) (12) 8 3 (35) (15)
AirAsia (%) -
MAS (%) 26 25 29 (4) (5) (7) (6) (1) (1) (0) 6 (3) (24) (20) (33) (8) 16
KAL (%) 7 4 (2) (5) (8) (7) 0 12 14 24 30 (10) (34) (37) (32) 13 62
EVA Air (%) 11 9 6 1 (1) (2) (0) 2 7 12 21 (4) (23) (33) (36) (6) 16
SIA (%) 6 4 2 (3) (5) (6) (4) 3 12 13 13 (6) (28) (33) (32) (9) 20
Similar recovery trends have been seen in volumes and load factors.
Nomura
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Exhibit 13. Asian airlines: revenue passenger kilometre (RPK) growth rate
(% y-y) Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Air China 1.0 0.3 (6.7) (6.1) (8.4) (16.3) (7.9) 0.5 3.0 2.3 10.4 6.2 4.9 4.8 7.0 5.3 13.8 29.0 11.4 11.3 13.0 14.9 8.6 16.6 20.8 16.5 CSA 6.4 6.6 1.1 (4.3) (4.1) (18.7) (4.8) 7.0 3.7 3.8 11.0 3.3 4.8 2.2 6.5 16.2 13.0 31.4 10.0 11.4 14.3 18.6 10.8 21.5 25.8 20.4 CEA 2.0 0.3 (6.0) (12.2) (13.1) (25.3) (13.4) (5.2) (4.3) (3.7) 6.5 3.0 8.6 8.8 10.8 15.1 18.4 44.3 16.0 13.8 7.9 8.8 36.4 53.9 45.6 36.1 CX 17.2 12.8 19.6 16.4 15.7 7.5 4.5 4.3 1.0 2.4 1.2 (4.9) (4.5) 5.3 (6.7) (14.1) (8.2) 1.9 0.1 (0.2) 2.0 4.0 1.6 10.5 6.6 (4.3)* 10.3 SIA 2.4 4.8 9.0 5.2 6.7 5.3 1.3 3.0 (2.6) (3.5) (6.9) (17.0) (21.8) (17.7) (22.8) (18.2) (13.2) (14.1) (7.9) (6.0) (5.1) (4.3) (1.6) 9.9 13.9 2.9* Qantas 3.4 1.7 4.3 11.2 0.2 (0.9) (2.9) (3.1) (5.2) (4.0) (4.1) (10.1) (6.4) (2.7) (3.9) (7.1) (2.1) (1.4) 2.7 3.2 3.0 1.9 (0.2) 3.9 4.1 -
CAL
(2.0) (6.9) (5.3) (6.5) (7.7) (8.6) (12.5) (9.0) (12.6) (9.6) (7.8) (17.4) (9.8) 0.2 (8.2) (18.0) (6.4) 5.6 6.9 4.7 11.6 15.9 5.3 19.2 8.4 (4.7)* -
EVA (2.9) (1.4) (1.8) (10.7) (6.1) (2.7) (22.2) (6.1) (10.6) (9.0) (4.1) (23.6) (3.5) (7.0) (9.4) (11.4) 10.0 8.7 6.3 2.7 12.7 18.2 11.0 14.4 16.0 5.2* 19.9
Thai 6.2 5.9 4.6 0.9 (6.4) (11.1) (23.1) (18.8) (32.3) (38.0) (20.9) (21.3) (18.8) (17.9) (24.9) (25.7) (12.7) (2.2) 10.6 11.0 27.5 55.0 21.3 18.8 13.1 -
MAS (9.3) (8.7) (3.6) (8.6) (6.7) (10.2) (18.1) (14.6) (19.0) (20.1) (25.2) (32.8) (25.5) (15.6) (16.9) (11.1) (5.3) (2.6) 8.9 8.9 10.6 15.3 25.1 35.7 28.0 -
KAL AirAsia# (1.2) 1.0 3.5 1.3 1.0 4.0 (7.0) (4.1) (8.7) (2.1) (1.1) (5.6) (3.6) (2.4) (9.0) (8.8) 1.0 1.9 9.7 6.8 13.4 13.9 12.0 12.0 17.0 10.0* 17.3 16.1 9.9 23.4 17.4 17.9 26.7 19.7 20.7
ANA (2.2) (0.6) (0.3) (4.3) (2.2) (3.8) (7.6) (5.3) (10.4) (10.5) (10.3) (17.4) (11.2) (11.6) (13.1) (13.5) (4.5) (4.1) 1.1 (4.0) (1.3) 2.5 5.7 10.6 8.0 4.5 -
Source: Company data; * Biased by volcanic ash cloud disruption, #AirAsia (quarterly)
Exhibit 14. Asian airlines: revenue freight tonne kilometre (RFTK) growth rate
(%) Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Air China 1.7 (0.7) (0.7) (7.1) (0.8) (7.2) (14.3) (4.8) (14.3) (22.6) (30.5) (14.4) (15.4) (12.7) (12.8) (8.0) (8.8) 6.5 23.1 13.9 31.2 41.7 66.0 50.0 42.3 26.8 CSA (0.8) 5.9 9.3 (10.2) (14.2) (23.9) (15.2) (11.5) (27.5) (31.5) (42.9) (15.7) (23.6) (26.3) (16.6) (3.2) 5.9 23.2 17.9 15.5 44.5 58.6 121.9 75.1 109.3 82.0 CEA 10.5 (2.4) 11.0 (4.5) 0.5 (10.5) (21.5) (17.2) (24.2) (32.9) (36.8) (16.7) (17.6) (5.2) (3.0) 6.7 (5.8) 5.5 23.0 14.7 28.5 46.5 141.7 90.2 98.9 96.9 CX 6.9 12.9 8.3 3.0 2.2 (4.6) (8.2) (6.7) (11.1) (21.1) (21.9) (16.5) (10.4) (14.7) (14.2) (9.4) (3.7) (6.1) (3.3) (1.9) 3.8 20.8 25.7 16.6 21.2 28.4 38.9 SIA (4.9) (0.5) 3.4 (1.6) (2.1) (1.5) (7.3) (11.3) (12.5) (19.0) (14.4) (15.2) (18.0) (21.6) (20.7) (20.8) (14.6) (17.7) (14.5) (4.2) (3.1) 5.7 3.3 3.4 12.0 5.8 Qantas CAL 6.0 (1.4) (4.3) (15.4) (18.3) (16.2) (24.5) (21.2) (28.4) (47.0) (47.2) (38.4) (41.3) (34.6) (24.7) (18.2) (2.8) (6.9) 8.4 18.6 51.2 104.8 111.5 82.0 88.7 71.9 EVA 2.2 3.4 (9.0) (13.7) (25.8) (18.4) (21.5) (15.6) (29.0) (40.6) (43.4) (41.2) (38.5) (31.4) (18.3) (16.3) (1.2) (0.8) 0.5 10.2 32.2 56.6 67.6 75.7 59.4 60.9 62.2 Thai 0.9 4.3 2.0 4.0 (0.5) (3.0) (7.5) (9.1) (30.9) (49.1) (35.0) (33.0) (24.2) (24.6) (23.4) (24.2) (15.8) (9.2) (4.0) 4.6 46.0 100.4 54.9 59.0 50.0 MAS (2.3) 5.2 4.7 4.7 (11.1) (4.2) (14.2) (18.3) (14.5) (29.4) (26.7) (28.4) (27.7) (35.2) (26.3) (38.9) 2.0 (17.8) (10.3) 6.2 4.7 23.9 21.4 31.2 39.9 KAL 0.0 (1.5) (2.0) (7.5) (7.0) (8.0) (12.5) (10.0) (15.5) (22.5) (24.0) (18.0) (16.0) (18.5) (15.0) (13.0) (8.0) (7.0) 4.8 6.0 16.4 25.2 24.0 18.0 15.0 23.0 AirAsia ANA -
Nomura
10
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
11
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
As shown in the exhibits above, passenger and cargo traffic volumes for most Asian airlines have recovered to positive growth since September 2009 and have been able to sustain solid positive volume growth since. We note that the apparent negative passenger volume growth in April 2010 for some airlines was likely just a blip caused by the temporary disruption from the volcanic ash cloud over Europe during the period. Still, rather than focusing purely on volume growth, many airlines have opted to focus on improving yield and load factors in order to maximise profitability and returns. In terms of passenger load factor, most Asian airlines have been able to recover and maintain loads at very high levels of close to 80%.
Passenger and cargo traffic volume have been able to sustain solid positive volume growth since September 2009
While cargo load factors vary more widely across different carriers, in general, all airlines have recorded significant improvements from lows seen from mid-2008 to mid2009. In addition to advance booking strength, the sustainability of the current recovery in the Asian airline industry is also reinforced by our macro view of a global economic recovery, especially for most Asian economies. For example, Nomura projects GDP growth of more than 10% in China and Singapore in 2010F.
Nomura
12
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
As domestic air traffic growth is generally a multiple of domestic GDP growth, our macro view for economic recovery underpins our view for a sustained recovery for the Asian airlines.
2008 9.0 7.3 6.2 6.1 1.1 4.6 2.6 3.8 0.1 2.2 2.4 1.1 0.7 (0.7) 0.9
2009 8.7 6.4 5.3 4.5 (2.0) (1.7) (2.3) 0.9 (1.9) 0.2 (2.8) (2.4) (4.9) (5.2) (4.0)
2010F 10.5 8.8 6.5 5.9 10.2 7.0 3.3 5.0 7.9 5.5 5.5 3.3 1.3 3.4 1.1
2011F 9.8 8.3 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.8
Nomura
13
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
We note that projections by Boeing (below) also indicate sustained long-term air traffic demand growth. Again, the intra-Asia (especially South Asia) and China domestic routes are expected to see the strongest passenger traffic growth over the medium to long term, according to Boeings estimates.
Nomura
14
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Cargo
2008 40.6 39.0 29.6 28.4 18.6 13.0 13.6 10.7 8.9 6.3 2.0
2009 36.7 33.0 28.8 25.8 16.6 10.6 10.5 10.5 8.7 5.3 3.0
2008 91.2 84.0 81.5 81.9 80.6 73.2 67.0 55.2 57.6 58.3 54.7
2009 91.3 76.0 84.1 83.1 77.8 75.0 68.6 60.0 59.7 58.2 58.2
Air cargo demand is more dependent on a recovery in the US and Europe, while air passenger demand is more dependent on a recovery in domestic economies. Therefore, despite the stronger recovery for air cargo vis--vis air passengers, our expectation of a sustained recovery in air passenger demand is still higher than that of a sustained recovery in air cargo demand. Still, a number of players advocate that the strong recovery in air cargo will be sustained for at least six to nine months, for instance Singapore Airlines.
Air passenger recovery slower than cargo but from higher base and higher clarity
Nomura
15
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
The fleet
Avg fleet age (years) 7.4 6.2 9.8 7.2 2.5 9.0 9.0 6.3 11.6 8.5
Fleet growth (%) 2010F 10.3 9.0 8.6 7.8 4.8 4.8 3.5 3.3 2.9 1.8 2011F 10.4 8.5 9.2 5.8 17.0 12.1 3.4 4.0 7.5 0.0
The detailed aircraft fleet breakdowns for the various airlines are as follows:
Source: Company data; Fleet doesnt include Air Macau and Shenzhen Airlines; Nomura estimates
Nomura
16
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
7.2
Source: Company data, Fleet doesnt include Shanghai Airlines, Nomura estimates
FY10F
FY11F
34 412 9.0
35 447 8.5
6.2
Nomura
17
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
FY10F 2
FY11F 5 5
FY12F 1 1
9.0
FY10F
FY11F
FY12F
0 3 0
5 3 0
3 8 6
3 107 2.9
8 115 7.5
17 132 14.7
11.6
Current 48 12 8 10 6 84 84
FY11F 6 5
FY12F 6 9
9 24 127 23.3
Nomura
18
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
FY10F
FY11F (1) 1
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates: * Assumes that of the 10 aircraft that are parked and 1 that is leased out, 4 are sold to the Air China cargo JV, 3 will be brought back into operation in 2010 and another 3 back into operation in 2011.
Nomura
19
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates: * Assumes that of the 4 surplus aircrafts, 3 are brought back into operation in 2010 and 1 back into operation in 2011
FY10F (3) 4
FY11F
8 3
12 4
2 (1) 5 2
210
9.8
Nomura
20
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
FY10F earnings +22.5 +20.0 +13.8 +15.0 +5.9 +5.3 +2.1 +1.3 (0.6) (11.6)
FY10 book value +1.7 +0.2 +2.4 +1.0 +3.6 +1.0 +1.7 +0.2 +0.4 (16.1)
The main reason for the net positive domestic currency appreciation impact for the Chinese, Japanese, Korean, and Malaysian airlines is that these airlines tend to have substantial amounts of non-domestic currency-denominated debt and/or costs, combined with significant amounts of domestic currency revenues. The reason for the net negative domestic currency appreciation impact for SIA is that it lacks non-domestic currency-denominated debt (it is net cash) and the group has a relatively low level of domestic currency revenue (it has no domestic routes). As for EVA Air and China Air, they tend to be more neutral to currency movements as a result of neither currency hedges nor relatively balanced revenue and cost exposures to non-domestic currencies. We see from the following exhibits that currency exchange gains or losses have historically been major earnings swing factors for the earnings of the Chinese airlines and the Korean airlines.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.6
3.3
7.0
7.0
0.0
2.6
5.3
Nomura
21
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
As for the other Asian airlines, the impact from currency movements tends to come through less obviously, ie, via the revenue line as improved or reduced domestic yields on tickets sold overseas rather than through the booking of exchange gains or losses. Hence, their currency exchange gains or losses tend to be minimal.
Nomura
22
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates; * FY99 to FY11 numbers used rather than CY98 to CY10 numbers given March year-end
939 (1,900)
746 (1,653)
Below are the official currency sensitivities provided by the airlines themselves (however, many do not provide official sensitivities) based on a 1% appreciation of the domestic currency versus all other currencies.
Exhibit 46. Effect of 1% appreciation of HK$ against all other currencies (except US$) for CX
(%) Impact on profit Impact on book value
Source: CX
Exhibit 47. Effect of 1% appreciation of S$ against all other currencies for SIA
(%) Impact on profit before tax Impact on book value
Source: SIA
Nomura
23
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Given the differing and sometimes significant magnitude in the currency sensitivities, views on the forward movement of currencies will necessarily be an important factor in the formation of a view on the different airlines. With our house view, shown in Exhibits 47 and 48 below, calling for the appreciation of most domestic Asian currencies (especially against the US dollar), we should arguably be more positive on the Chinese, Japanese, Korean, and Malaysian airlines on this factor in isolation.
Given our house view calling for the appreciation of most domestic Asian currencies, Chinese, Japanese, Korean and Malaysian airlines should benefit the most
Source: Nomura Economics team; * Rates are as of March of following year in order to match fiscal year-end of SIA and ANA
Source: Nomura estimates; * rates are as of March of following year in order to match with fiscal year-end of SIA and ANA
However, we note that our currency appreciation expectations have actually been cut recently, resulting in some earnings and book value estimate changes (details in the company sections).
Nomura
24
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
CSA has largest local revenue/greatest foreign debt exposure; SIA the least
As noted in the previous section, airlines with lower exposure to non-domestic revenues tend to be beneficiaries of domestic currency appreciations. whereas airlines with higher exposure to non-domestic revenues tend to be victims of domestic currency appreciation.
Source: Nomura estimates; *Based on breakdown derived via origin of sale but actual exposure to S$ provided by SIA is 46%
Hence, we see that indeed SIA, which is a net victim of any local currency appreciation, has close to 70% of its revenue in foreign currencies, whereas CEA, ANA, and CSA have only 16%, 10% and 8% of their respective revenues, respectively, in nondomestic currencies. We note that airlines with a heavier cargo bias, such as the Taiwan-based and Korean airlines, tend to have greater US dollar exposure than the Origin of Sales breakdown may indicate, given that most cargo rates are priced in US dollars.
SIA is a beneficiary of a weak US$ but net victim of local currency appreciation
Nomura
25
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
FY08
100.0
100.0
100.0
FY08
100.0
100.0
100.0
Nomura
26
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
FY08 38.8 21.3 13.6 8.6 12.4 3.7 1.2 0.5 100.0
FY09 39.4 20.3 12.8 8.0 10.7 3.3 1.4 4.0 100.0
Nomura
27
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
100.0
Given the relative currency exposure on both the revenue and debt fronts, a weak euro would be seen as the most negative for SIA whereas a strong US dollar would be seen as the most negative for KAL. Nevertheless, if we assume that the renminbi exchange rate is allowed to freely move against the US dollar, a strong US dollar would then be seen as the most negative for Chinese airlines.
FY08 252 17 73 4 0 5
FY09 253 18 70 10 0 1
2008 neg 39 57 0 4
2009 3,481 32 68 0 0
2008 717 28 71 0 1
2009 525 90 10 0 0
We note that since 2009, Chinese airlines have increased their US dollar-denominated debt as a percentage of the overall debt mix. Based on company guidance, we have assumed that CSA will have 100% of its gross debt in US dollars by FY11F, that Air China will have 80% and that CEA will have 70%.
Nomura
28
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
FY08 282 36 58 4 2
FY09 272 46 50 3 1
FY08 402 10 90
FY09 262 10 90
FY08 239 80 20
FY09 209 85 15
FY08 396 70 30
FY09 308 70 30
Nomura
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14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
30
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Exposure (%) 85.0 74.7 69.0 61.0 40.0 20.0 8.5 None None None None
SIA has the greatest exposure to European routes (ie, Europe-SE Asia), while EVA and KAL have the largest exposures to North American routes (ie, N. America-NE Asia).
Exposure (%) 21.0 19.4 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.0 12.7 6.8 Single digits Single digits na
Nomura
31
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Exposure (%) 47.8 36.8 33.7 24.6 20.0 8.7 8.3 Single digits Single digits Single digits na
As for the intra-Asia routes, which have recently seen the strongest recoveries, CX, SIA, KAL, and the Taiwanese airlines have the largest exposure.
Exposure 47.7 42.0 39.7 38.3 37.2 18.0 15.9 12.0 5.0 na na
The detailed route breakdowns for the various Asian airlines are shown below.
Exhibit 78. Route breakdown for Air China (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 China domestic Europe North America Japan / Korea Asia Pacific, others HK/Macau Overall
Source: Company data; FY10F are Nomura estimates
1999
FY00
Exhibit 79. Route breakdown for China Eastern Air (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 China domestic Japan HK/Macau Other International Overall
Source: Company data; FY10F are Nomura estimates
1999
Nomura
32
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Exhibit 80. Route breakdown for China Southern Air (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
China domestic HK/Macau Other international Overall 1998 79.1 10.1 10.8 100.0 1999 80.8 9.3 9.9 100.0 FY00 77.9 8.1 13.9 100.0 FY01 78.5 7.2 14.3 100.0 FY02 75.5 6.4 18.1 100.0 FY03 77.1 4.8 18.1 100.0 FY04 76.0 5.1 18.9 100.0 FY05 78.9 3.5 17.6 100.0 FY06 79.2 2.9 17.9 100.0 FY07 79.8 2.1 18.1 100.0 FY08 80.9 1.9 17.2 100.0 FY09 85.0 1.9 13.1 100.0 FY10F 84.0 1.1 14.9 100.0
Exhibit 81. Route breakdown for Korean Air (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 America Europe SE Asia Japan China Korea Domestic Oceania Overall
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates
1999
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Exhibit 82. Route breakdown for MAS (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 Europe & Middle East Orient & N America Malaysia Domestic Asia Australia & New Zealand Africa & S America Overall
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates
1999
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Exhibit 83. Route breakdown for AirAsia (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 Malaysia Domestic International Overall
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates
1999
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Exhibit 84. Route breakdown for EVA Air (as a percentage of overall airline revenues)
1998 America Europe Asia Oceania Total
Source: Company data; *Nomura estimates
1999
Exhibit 85. Route breakdown for China Air (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 America South-East Asia North-East Asia Europe Hong Kong Mainland China Australia Taiwan Domestic Overall
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates
1999
FY00
FY01
FY08 37.4 20.4 12.9 18.7 7.7 0.8 1.9 0.3 100.0
FY10F na na na na na na na na na
Nomura
33
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Exhibit 86. Route breakdown for Cathay Pacific (as a percentage of overall RPK)
1998 North America SE Asia & Middle East Europe Australia & S Africa North Asia China Overall 24.1 18.3 25.4 16.1 16.0 0.0 100.0 1999 24.4 19.2 25.0 16.2 15.3 0.0 100.0 FY00 24.5 18.6 25.0 16.3 15.6 0.0 100.0 FY01 22.3 19.4 24.2 18.3 15.8 0.0 100.0 FY02 23.7 20.6 23.4 16.8 15.6 0.0 100.0 FY03 25.9 20.2 23.2 17.2 13.5 0.0 100.0 FY04 27.2 20.4 22.2 15.7 14.4 0.0 100.0 FY05 27.3 19.7 21.7 17.1 14.2 0.0 100.0 FY06 28.0 19.7 22.3 16.0 14.0 0.0 100.0 FY07 25.8 18.7 20.1 14.6 13.8 7.1 100.0 FY08 28.0 19.2 18.6 15.0 12.7 6.6 100.0 FY09 24.6 21.3 19.4 16.3 11.7 6.7 100.0 FY10F 26.0 20.0 20.0 15.0 12.0 7.0 100.0
Exhibit 87. Route breakdown for SIA* (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 East Asia Europe SW Pacific & Australia Americas W Asia & Africa Overall 1999 30.9 21.1 13.7 24.0 10.4 100.0 FY00 33.4 18.7 14.6 22.5 10.8 100.0 FY01 33.6 20.1 15.6 20.5 10.2 100.0 FY02 32.2 20.1 16.3 21.3 10.0 100.0 FY03 29.4 19.8 18.7 20.9 11.3 100.0 FY04 29.6 21.1 17.9 20.3 11.1 100.0 FY05 29.3 20.7 18.3 20.4 11.3 100.0 FY06 29.2 21.5 18.1 19.7 11.6 100.0 FY07 28.9 21.8 18.3 18.7 12.3 100.0 FY08 26.7 24.8 19.0 17.8 11.6 100.0 FY09F 29.0 21.0 18.0 20.0 12.0 100.0 FY10F 29.0 21.0 18.0 20.0 12.0 100.0
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates; * FY99 to FY11 numbers used rather than CY98 to CY10 numbers given March YE
Exhibit 88. Route breakdown for All Nippon Airways (as a percentage of overall airline revenue)
1998 Japan domestic N America China Europe Other Asia Resorts Overall 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Company data; Nomura estimates; * FY99 to FY11 numbers used rather than CY98 to CY10 numbers given March YE
1999
FY00 76.4
FY01 79.6
FY02 77.7
FY03 78.5
FY04 75.8
FY05 74.9
FY06 72.3
FY10F Na na na na na na na
Nomura
34
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Average price (crude equivalent) U$85/barrel jet kerosene* US$96/barrel crude oil & US$108/barrel jet kerosene US$80/barrel crude oil na US$80-90/barrel crude oil Average US$80/barrel crude oil Average US$80/barrel crude oil US$77/barrel crude oil US$120/barrel jet kerosene US$82/barrel jet kerosene Nil
Hence, for investors expecting oil prices to rise, ANA, MAS and CX (given their more significant hedging positions) may be the better plays; investors who see oil prices in retreat may find CSA, KAL and SIA better suited to the portfolio. We note that even for airlines with hedging contracts for oil, they are only protected within a certain price range and, if oil price moves beyond that range, coverage would deteriorate rapidly. A sense of the magnitude of oil hedging losses/gains can be seen in the oil hedging losses/gains in 2008 and 2009, when crude oil prices swung from US$95.98/barrel at end-2007 to US$44.60/barrel at end-2008 and back to US$79.40/barrel at end-2009 (or from US$101.58/barrel at end-2007 to US$49.66/barrel at end-2008 and back to US$83.76/barrel at end-2009 for those with March year-ends).
ANA, MAS and CX may be better plays for oil prices to rise, whereas CSA, KAL and SIA may be better plays for oil prices to retreat
Reported net profit 2011F na 120 250 na 367 0 0 (110) 0 0 0 2008 (4,260) 246 (8,558) (32,351) (16,890) (9,256) (15,269) (1,942) 1,062 (497) (4,823) 2009 (57,387) 493 4,694 (3,805) (2,844) 4,854 169 (99) 216 506 330 2010F 500 503 6,299 na 3,332 7,202 2,089 431 1,259 426 1,722 2011F 19,00 818 5,174 na 4,532 7,155 2,760 413 1,667 492 1,802
In the absence of oil hedging, the sensitivity to oil price movements to the overall costs of the various airlines are seen as largely similar since oil prices generally account for a similar proportion of overall costs for the various airlines. Perhaps the only major difference is in whether oil that the airline buys is subject to price controls or not. Here, we note that oil prices in China are subject to such controls; thus, the Chinese airlines see a slightly more muted impact from oil price movements on a non-hedged level.
Nomura
35
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Core earnings
1998 -
1999 -
FY00 -
2007
2008
2007 13 87 76 (15)
Nomura
36
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
1998
1998 -
1999 -
FY00 -
FY01 -
FY02 -
FY03 -
FY06 88 (2) 0 29
FY09 506 53 0 91
1998 75 0 0 0
1999 1,165 0 0 0
FY07
FY08
FY07
FY08
FY10F na
FY11F na
1,324 (22,595)
Nomura
37
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
2010F 1,259 0 0 0
2011F 1,667 0 0 0
1998
1999
2001
2002
2003 24,756
2004 26,970
2008
2009
2010F 5,000 na na na
2011F 19,000 na na na
(9,456) (28,256)
Irrespective of the past track record, we are projecting that most Asian airlines will be able to return to core profitability this year.
Nomura
38
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Valuation comparison
Max=1.9 x
6 4 2 0
Nomura
39
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
40
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
15.68 BUY 7.68 NEUTRAL 3.28 BUY 3.23 NEUTRAL 14.28 BUY 1.97 BUY 17.95 BUY 71,300.00 NEUTRAL 273.00 NEUTRAL 23.80 NEUTRAL@ 196.40 BUY@@ 14.80 Not rated 2.46 Not rated 1.16 Not rated 7,120.00 Not rated
Source: Nomura estimates, ^ Bloomberg consensus, @ Covered by Capital Nomura Securities, @@ Covered by Nomura European Transport, ** YE-March, Share prices as of 7 June 2010
15.68 BUY 7.68 NEUTRAL 3.28 BUY 3.23 NEUTRAL 14.28 BUY 1.97 BUY 17.95 BUY 71,300.00 NEUTRAL 273.00 NEUTRAL 23.80 NEUTRAL@ 196.40 BUY@@ 14.80 Not rated 2.46 Not rated 1.16 Not rated 7,120.00 Not rated
Source: Nomura estimates, ^ Bloomberg consensus, @ Covered by Capital Nomura Securities, @@ Covered by Nomura European Transport, ** YE-March, share price as of 7 June 2010
Nomura
41
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
42
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Investment risks
The main risks to our price targets for Asian airlines would be if passenger throughput growth, passenger yield growth and/or oil prices vary significantly from our estimates. Currency movements also play a significant role in an airlines profitability and, hence, a significant variation in currency exchange rates from our macro assumptions also poses a risk. AirAsia Berhad: Upside risks to our call include: 1) AirAsia successfully managing to list its associates in their respective countries of operation, ie, Thailand and Indonesia, in the coming months; 2) undertaking a recapitalisation; and 3) better-than-expected performance from associates. Downside risks include: 1) extreme movements in the US dollar appreciation, and 2) a sharp sustained uptrend in fuel costs. All Nippon Airways: Upside risk: With profits likely to be low in 11/3, ANAs share price is determined on the basis of an effective dividend yield, not on earnings and thus, upside risk is limited, in our view. Downside risk: Demand on international routes could be affected in the event of rapid changes in the global economy, terrorist activities, natural disasters, or the spread of disease. Any life-threatening accident on either domestic or international routes could lead customers to avoid either the particular airline responsible or air transportation in general. Meanwhile, if system glitches cause disturbances to scheduled flights, there could be an impact over the medium term as customers increasingly shift toward more reliable bullet train or other railway services. Air China: The main risks we see to our price target for Air China are passenger throughput growth, passenger yield growth, currency movements and/or oil prices differing from our estimates. Cathay Pacific: The main risks include passenger throughput growth, passenger yield growth and/or oil prices differing substantially from our estimates. Currency movements play a significant part in an airlines profitability and, hence, FX rates differing significantly from our macro assumptions would also pose a risk. China Eastern Airlines: The main risks we see to our price target for CEA are passenger throughput growth, passenger yield growth, currency movements and oil prices differing from our estimates. China Southern Airlines: The main risks we see to our price target for CSA are passenger throughput growth, passenger yield growth, currency movements and oil prices differing from our estimates. EVA Airways: The main risks to our price target for EVA would be if passenger and cargo throughput growth, passenger and cargo yield growth, and/or oil prices differ substantially from our estimates. Currency movements play a significant part in an airlines profitability; hence, exchange rates that differ significantly from our macro assumptions are also risks. Korea Air Lines: Risks to our KAL price target include volatility of the won, oil prices and increasing leverage. Malaysia Airlines: Risks to our view are, if passenger growth rebounds at a faster pace than our assumptions of 5% for domestic passengers and 7% for international passengers in FY10F, and better-than-expected yield improvements take place earlier than expected. Key downside risks to our view include further delays of MASs fleet deliveries. Current sentiment on the uncertainty of the strength of the economic rebound, political and environmental (ie, the Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruption in Iceland) headwinds, as well as oil price uncertainty could persist for the next few quarters, dampening possible performance further. Also, in a worst-case scenario, assuming zero hedging (as hedging policy varies), we highlight a potential 15% earnings impact from each 1% movement in the US dollar.
Nomura
43
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Singapore Airlines: Investment risks to our price target include higher- or lower-thanexpected jet fuel prices which would impact our price target, as would higher-thanexpected achieved passenger or cargo yields and loads. Also, capacity cuts both in passenger and cargo divisions would also impact earnings.
Nomura
44
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad A I R A M K
AI R L I N E S | M AL AY S I A
Maintained
NOMURA SECURITIES MALAYSIA SDN BHD
jacinda.loh@nomura.com waikee.choong@nomura.com
NEUTRAL
Action
Despite trading close to trough-cycle valuations since 2007, AirAsias shares, we believe, will continue to languish near the historical level of 1.2x P/BV. Our NEUTRAL view is premised on its strong earnings (which, in our view, reflects AirAsias established market position) offset by potentially higher-than- expected gearing amid potential large write-offs and continued cashflow stress.
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY11F net profit (RMmn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
RM1.26
RM1.20
(set on 31 May 10)
Catalysts
Positive re-rating catalysts are: 1) balance sheet recapitalisation, and 2) betterthan-expected performance from associates (ThaiAirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia). Anchor themes Asia-Pacific airlines have rebounded faster than expected on growing penetration in the world's largest aviation market. But we see headwinds in 2010F for Malaysian airlines, with a preference for players with robust balance sheets and turnaround potential.
Nomura vs consensus
We are below consensus as we see AirAsias modest earnings upside being capped by rising interest costs, competition and possible write-offs of its ballooning receivables.
1m Absolute (RM) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$m n) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (RM) 3-m th avg daily turnover (U S$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Tune Ai r Em ployees Provident Fund
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
6m (1.6) 0.8 (2.0) 1,047 60.0 1.54/1.10 2.20 Hard 26.4 6.7
Nomura
45
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Drilling down
Passenger growth remained robust and was largely sustained during the 2009 slowdown due to AirAsias aggressive load-focused strategy, charting 20% levels in an ASEAN airline industry that is forecast to grow 8% a year for the next 20 years1. However, taking into account that competitors are aggressively entering the LCC market with a business model that is more or less similar to AirAsias (low fares driven by low costs to stimulate demand), we forecast a three-year passenger CAGR for AirAsia of 17%. The fact that Jetstar and Tiger have chosen to operate out of Singapore is likely to provide them access to a larger passenger base and connecting traffic, which might prove detrimental to AirAsia in the long run, in our view.
1
Nomura
46
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 114. Competition in ASEAN markets leaves little room for yield management
AirAsia Current fleet size Operating base Expansion plans 84 Kuala Lumpur/Thai/ Indonesia Increase fleet to 175 by 2015 65 EPF / Tune Air AIRA MK Tiger Airways 19 Singapore/Australia Increase fleet to 68 by 2015 Jetstar 61 Singapore Starting long-haul, low-cost operations at Changi from Singapore to Australia/North Asia/Europe from late 2010 57 Qantas Qantas and a Singaporean shareholder
Besides accounting for competition from other LCCs and flagging growth from a mature domestic market, we have based our forecast passenger number of 26mn (group figure) in FY10F (vs managements target of 27mn) on Thai AirAsia charting a lower full-year FY10F load factor of 65% (versus an historical average of 75%) in view of the current unrest in Bangkok as well as steady performance by Indo AirAsia. Thai AirAsia has historically been a positive growth driver for AirAsias overall passenger numbers, charting a passenger CAGR of 33% from FY06-09. Of particular note is that besides being affected by the drop in inbound/outbound traffic to Thailand, Thai AirAsia may be affected by any drop in domestic Thailand travel as about half of its routes are within Thailand. This is compounded further by AirAsia taking delivery of about six planes for its Thailand associate this year. However, management is not cancelling any flights at the moment
Thailand underperformance could derail managements target of 27mn passengers this year
We see the forecast drop in passenger traffic to be compounded by Thai AirAsia receiving six planes this year from AirAsia
Exhibit 115. Thai AirAsia may not deliver passenger growth numbers in FY10F
Passengers Carried (mn) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F Thai AirAsia (LHS) Indonesia AirAsia (LHS) M'sia AirAsia (LHS) Thai Passenger Growth (RHS) (%) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
Nomura
47
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 116. Yields fell in FY09 as AirAsia aggressively maintained load factors
Load factor (LHS) 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F 2012F 0.10 0.05 0.20 0.15 Revenue / RPK (RHS) (RM sen) 0.30 0.25
Exhibit 117. Quarterly yields improving but we see a cap given impending competition
(RM) 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 0.05 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 Average Fare (LHS) Revenue / RPK (RHS) (RM sen) 0.30
Source: Company data, Nomura-adjusted figure for 2006 to reclassify admin and insurance surcharges to ancillary income, Nomura estimates
For an LCC airline that is committed to maintaining low fares and driving profitability through continuous cost reductions, one of the key profitability indicators remains the cost/ASK trend. Since 2006, cost/ASKs for Malaysian operations have been inching upward q-q. Our FY10-12F forecasts see a roughly 2% increase in cost/ASK ex-fuel in light of growing marketing expenditure in support of its route expansions and bid to increase ancillary revenue (as discussed below). As such, we have a NEUTRAL outlook on AirAsia as we see cost/ASK ex fuel growing in tandem with our forecast yield improvements of 2-5%, while we highlight the potential for yields to stay capped moving forward should competition intensify. While AirAsia does not disclose the cost base for its 49%-owned operations due to the smaller scale of Thai AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsias operations, it is likely that the companys cost competitiveness is weaker, in our view. We note, however, that cost competitiveness may improve as the two associates build up operational scale.
Exhibit 118. RPK growth to rebound somewhat on six proposed additional routes in FY10F
Capacity (mn) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 FY6/03 FY6/04 FY6/05 FY6/06 FY6/07 FY10F FY11F FY12F FY07 FY08 FY09
Revenue Passenger Kilometres (LHS) Available Seat Kilometres (LHS) RPK Growth rate (RHS)
Exhibit 119. But cost/ASKs (ex-fuel) are seen inching up amid stabilising passenger growth
(%) Passenger Growth rate (LHS) CASK ex fuel (RHS) (RM sen) 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Nomura
48
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 120. AirAsias fuel is 30% hedged for FY10F, unhedged for FY11F
Fuel costs (LHS) Average crude oil price (RHS)
AirAsia has hedged circa 30% of its FY10F needs, zero for FY11F
(RM sen) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Running a sensitivity to oil price fluctuations, we see oil costs moving by RM9.5mn for every 1% change in oil prices. That translates to a circa 1.5% impact on FY10F earnings. Should full-year prices for oil come in at US$80, vs Nomuras estimate of US$85 for FY10F, however, we flag a positive 9% impact on earnings.
Nomura
49
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
90% of borrowings in US$; hedged at 40-45%, contracts currently mostly in the money
Exhibit 124. Baggage fees still largest contributor at 32% of total ancillary income; cargo showing good growth
(%) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 % 0
Others Insurance Excess baggage SnackAttack - F&B Go Holiday Cargo and Redbox
Exhibit 125. AirAsia doubled ancillary income before from imposition of check-in baggage fees
(mn) 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 (%)
Ancillary Income (LHS) Growth (RHS)
2007
2009
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Company data for 2007, Nomura estimate for 2009 as management no longer discloses breakdown from 2007 onwards
Source: Company data, Nomura-adjusted figure for 2006 to reclassify admin and insurance surcharges to ancillary income
Moving forward from 2008, ancillary income charted growth of circa 50% in 2009 y-y. While still on a robust growth trajectory, this was nowhere near the level achieved in 2008.
Nomura
50
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
For the next three years, we still see further scope for expanding ancillary revenue, given momentum in continuous product launches such as Redbox (courier service), Redtix (entertainment ticketing site) and Red Megastore (online merchandise store). Still, we believe the lead time and marketing costs needed to generate market awareness may result in this RM60/pax target only being achieved by FY11F. While we note managements expansion foray into non-fuel-related revenue, product launches such as Redtix and Red Megastore in 2010 appear to have a tenuous link to its core airline business we do not see any synergistic benefits arising at the moment. Our ancillary income forecasts are based on circa 26% three-year CAGR, driven by baggage charges as well as from its cargo and Redbox segment. AirAsia in 2009 teamed up with DHL to launch Redbox, which management expects will contribute revenue of RM30mn in FY10F. However, given the growing base effect, we expect growth to taper off towards FY12F, as expected ancillary income hits 22% of FY12F revenue, in line with about 20% levels currently at LCCs such as Ryanair (RYA LN3.5625, BUY).
Exhibit 126. Ancillary income growth envisaged to taper off in FY12F as it hits an estimated 22% of revenue
Ancillary income / pax (LHS) 70 60 50 40 30.2 30 20 10 0 FY08 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F 5 19.9 10 15 43.1 20 % of revenue (RHS) 66.6 60.5 (%) 25
Nomura
51
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 127. Free cashflow to stay negative as interest and depreciation could wipe out up to 55% of EBITDA
0 (500) (1,000) (1,500) (2,000) (2,500) (3,000) (3,018.0) (3,500) FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F Free cashflow (LHS) Group fleet size (RHS) 30 0 (335.0) (966.8) (1,276.8) (993.8) (1,297.4) (1,537.3) 60 (1,037.8) 150 120 90
AirAsia has borne all associated financing costs for its and its associates fleets since the start-up of Thai AirAsia (in 2004) and Indonesia AirAsia (in 2005). This is evidenced by its consistently negative free cashflow position as the cashflows generated by the Malaysian operations were channelled for servicing of the interest cost as well as loan repayments due. AirAsia management has sub-leased new aircraft to Thai AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia since their inception; however, as both operations were unprofitable during these years (despite management targeting profitability by 2006 and 2007), receivables in the form of sub-lease income due from these two entities continued to build up (totalling RM823mn at FY09, 7.3% of book value), with zero net cashflow received by AirAsia. We note that AirAsias 4Q09 management accounts classified roughly 86% of those amounts owed as current receivables. However, the FY09 audited accounts revealed a subsequent reclassification to non-current receivables, of which the non-current portion now totals 52% of total receivables (versus circa 14% previously). This forms the basis for our assumption that AirAsias (ie, the Malaysian operations) cashflows alone will continue to service the associated costs for FY10-12F, as any positive cashflows from Thai AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia during this period are likely to be applied towards repaying not only the receivables/amounts owed but any aircraft lease rentals due in the current period, as well as the 6% owed on inter-company balances that AirAsia now charges at the request of its shareholders (at an EGM in August 2009 called to procure shareholders ratification for the provision of financial assistance to Thai AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia). The statement to the stock exchange on that EGM also acknowledged the potentially EPS-dilutive effect should write-offs occur in the future.
Free cashflow expected to remain in negative territory as delivery of 106 airplanes occurs between 2010 and 2015
With reference to the sums owed by associates parked as receivables on its balance sheet, it is likely any cashflows from Thai and Indonesia AirAsia between FY10F and FY12F will have to go towards repaying these amounts before AirAsia sees any positive contribution
Nomura
52
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Forecasts of higher crude oil prices are likely to contribute to a muted earnings outlook (Nomura forecasts US$85 in 2010F and US$95 in 2011F), in addition to moderating passenger growth and rising interest expense. AirAsias recent announcement on the possible deferment of its aircraft deliveries (from 24 per year from 2012 onwards to 10-14 per year) may cap growth for a company whose business model has been to increase profitability through higher frequencies and number of routes. This comes at a time when other LCCs are building their fleets in anticipation of opportunities offered by potential ASEAN open skies liberalisation. If this materialises, it could potentially be a game-changer in terms of growth strategy, as other LCCs build capacity, increase flight frequencies and step up the competition. We apply the Altman-Z score to test AirAsias solvency strength and compare it with the Altman-Z scores of other airlines as highlighted in our Good, Bad and Ugly Spring 2010 report. The result: based on a strict comparison of just Altman-Z scores, we see AirAsia charting a score of 0.9.
ROEs are likely to decline due to costlier crude oil in FY10F, easing passenger growth, rising interest expense and depreciation
Nomura
53
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 130. Most airlines fall into the Ugly category given deep cyclicality, AirAsia among the lowest
Good credit health Uncertain health Very poor health Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific Malaysia Airlines AirAsia Air China Thai Airways Korean Air EVA Airways China Southern Asiana Airlines Altman Z score 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.4
Source: Nomura research; Good, Bad and Ugly Spring 2010 reports by Paul Schulte, dated 17, 26 and 30 March 2010
Nomura
54
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Max = 9.5
Nov-04
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
At these levels, AirAsia is trading at 1.17x FY11F adjusted P/BV, and looks attractive from a valuation perspective on almost all metrics. Its current valuations also seem to imply that the market has largely discounted all its gearing and operational issues. However, on an EV/EBITDA basis, this implies an FY11F EV/EBITDA of 6x, a premium to one of Europes most established LCCs, Ryanair (at 5.6x, based on Nomura UK estimates). Also, we argue that given what appears to be a moderating growth profile and as gearing is expected to exert pressure on AirAsias balance sheet going forward, we believe the overhang on the brand is likely to remain unless indications point to a resolution of the issues we have highlighted in this report.
Nomura
55
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
2010F
2011F
2012F
52 50
58 55
64 61
20 20
25 23
33 29
16 16 6.0
20 18 6.0
28 24 6.0
70 14.3
77 15.5
82 17.1
83 18.8
76 5.0
65 6.0
71 7.3
75 10.0
3.18
3.00
2.92
Nomura
56
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Financial statements
Income statement (RMmn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (%) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FDEPS Per share Reported EPS (RM) Norm EPS (RM) Fully diluted norm EPS (RM) Book value per share (RM) DPS (RM)
Source: Nomura estimates
378 725 (347) 378 (283) 66 162 373 534 534 (876) (342) (342)
1,337 1,893 (556) 1,337 (504) 80 913 (420) 492 375 867 (375) 492 492
1,618 2,275 (657) 1,618 (588) 80 1,110 (420) 690 365 1,055 (365) 690 690
No positive contribution expected at the moment as receivables from associates are ballooning and any cashflow may likely go towards settling those amounts
5.6 5.3 na na 1.9 13.7 26.3 13.2 25.4 13.2 (12.0) (230.7) na 91.9 7.6 na 8.2
6.1 5.8 6.1 3.9 1.2 8.4 13.1 25.1 39.4 25.1 16.2 18.6 62.2 4.4 24.0 7.9
5.7 5.5 7.3 2.5 1.0 7.8 11.9 24.7 37.9 24.7 11.2 24.2 66.9 5.1 15.0 8.2
3.6 3.4 6.4 2.3 0.9 6.5 9.3 28.8 40.8 28.8 10.6 46.1 51.8 4.3 14.9 10.2
3.0 2.8 4.5 1.9 0.7 6.2 8.7 29.0 40.8 29.0 12.4 37.9 57.7 4.9 17.8 10.5
Nomura
57
14 June 2010
AirAsia Berhad
Jacinda Loh
Cashflow (RMmn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 725 (548) (593) (416) (2,623) (3,039) (27) (24) 0 196 (2,894) 3 3,045
FY09 1,236 243 (695) 784 (1,948) (1,164) 0 (424) (0) 1 (1,587) 509 1,670 2,180 592 154 746 6,862
Balance sheet (RMmn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 154 689 21 1,032 1,896 27 6,594 9 856 24 9,406 539 1,030 164 1,733 6,068 0 7,800 237 632 736 1,606 9,406
FY09 746 721 21 733 2,221 27 7,942 9 751 449 11,398 540 1,156 13 1,710 7,068 0 8,777 276 1,138 1,207 2,621 11,398
FY10F 721 625 25 688 2,059 27 10,045 9 300 449 12,888 600 1,412 3 2,015 7,826 0 9,841 276 1,565 1,207 3,047 12,888
FY11F 827 825 29 610 2,292 27 11,889 9 250 449 14,915 769 1,626 3 2,399 8,977 0 11,376 276 2,057 1,207 3,539 14,915
FY12F 881 1,068 35 565 2,550 27 14,444 9 250 449 17,728 929 1,949 3 2,882 10,617 0 13,499 276 2,747 1,207 4,229 17,728
Potential for a write-off for these amounts could bring about further downside as the outlook for its associates, especially Thai AirAsia, is expected to be bleak this year
1.09 1.3
1.30 2.7
1.02 2.2
0.96 2.7
0.88 2.8
8.90 401.9
5.55 261.8
5.34 252.9
4.71 252.0
4.69 252.2
Nomura
58
14 June 2010
Air China 7 5 3 H K
TR AN S P O R T/ L O G I S TI C S | C H I N A
Maintained
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
jim.wong@nomura.com shirley.lam@nomura.com
NEUTRAL
Action
Among Chinas airlines, we believe Air China will be the biggest beneficiary of recent government policies and least affected by slower-than-expected renminbi appreciation. Most of the good news is priced in following strong 1QFY10 results, capital injection of RMB6.5bn and acquisition of Shenzhen Airlines. We reiterate NEUTRAL; price target reduced to HK$8.21.
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY10F net profit (RMBmn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
HK$7.68
HK$8.21
(from HK$8.35)
Catalysts
Possible positive catalysts include: renminbi appreciation and strong recovery of traffic are largely discounted. Anchor themes We see reforms as net positive. Reforms are expected on shareholding structure, airport charges, domestic route operating rights, airport infrastructure levy, jet fuel price, customs tax on aircraft purchases and ticket pricing.
Nomura vs consensus
Our earnings estimates are slightly higher than market consensus after factoring in the recent positive government policies.
Positives priced in
Largest beneficiary of the recent government policies
We revised down our forecast for Air Chinas 2010 net profit by 3.2%, but revised up 2011F net profit by 13.0% to reflect the slower-thanexpected renminbi appreciation in 2010F and possible benefits from: 1) the cancellation of business tax on international routes and regional routes starting from January 2010; and 2) the easing of restrictions on premium-class fares starting from 1 June 2010. We expect Air China to be the least affected by the slower renminbi appreciation and to be the largest beneficiary of the two new policies.
FY08
52,908 (9,256) (9,734) (0.82) (340.6) na 41.9 4.1 0.0 (36.6) 251.9
220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Feb10 Apr10 1m 3.1 2.8 5.5 3m 13.4 12.8 20.0
Dec09
Oct09
Absolute (HK$) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (HK$) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) CNAHC CNAC(Group)
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
6m 21.7 20.9 34.6 12,056 30.2 8.79/3.45 22.45 Hard 40.4 11.3
Nomura
59
14 June 2010
Air China
Jim Wong
Drilling down
6.83 6.83
5.50 2.60
As a result of this forecast change, we revise down our anticipated FX gains for Air China. Nevertheless, we expect the decline in FX gains to be partly mitigated by improvement in traffic revenues in 2010 following the two recent positive government policies, or fully mitigated in 2011 earnings. According to the announcement made by the Ministry of Finance on 5 May 2010, the Notice Concerning Exemption of Business Tax on the Provision of International Transport Services (Cai Shui [2010] No. 8) was jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation (the Notice). Pursuant to the Notice, it is provided that since 1 January 2010, entities or individuals within the Peoples Republic of China providing international transport services shall be exempt from the business tax. Prior to the announcement, all Chinese airlines needed to pay business tax of approximately 3% for all traffic revenues (including domestic, regional and international routes). Given that the exemption of business tax is applicable to international routes and regional routes traffic revenues, Air Chinas high exposure to these segments means that it is likely to be the largest beneficiary. Air China announced on 5 May 2010 that the company would benefit from a reduction of business tax and additional expenses of approximately RMB549mn in 2009 should the policy take effect in 2009. We estimate that Air China can save tax of RMB742mn; this compares to China Southern Airlines (1055 HK; NEUTRAL) possible tax saving of RMB262mn and CEAs (670 HK; BUY) RMB566mn. On 22 May 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that Chinese airlines will be able to set their own premium-class fares on domestic routes effective 1 June 2010. Currently, first-class fares are set at 150% of the economy class fare, and business class fares are set at 130% of the economy class fare. Again, we see Air China as the largest beneficiary as it has a higher proportion of revenue coming from premium-class fares (estimated at 8% compared to 5-6% for its peers). We have checked with the management of Air China and the company is considering increasing its first-class fares by 33% to 200% of the economy class fare and business by 15% to 150% of the economy class fare following the new pricing policy.
The negative impact from the cut of renminbi appreciation rate will be mitigated by revenue hike
Nomura
60
14 June 2010
Air China
Jim Wong
By assuming 8% of total domestic revenue comes from premium class and an average fare hike of 24%, we estimate that Air China could gain additional revenue of RMB301mn (or net profit of RMB238mn) in 2010. After incorporating the aforementioned changes, we revise down our 2010 net profit forecast by 3.3% but revise up our forecast for 2011 net profit by 13.0%.
With 1QFY10 results, a capital injection of RMB6.5bn from the central government, as well as the acquisition of Shenzhen Airlines behind it, the only remaining significant catalyst that we see for Air China would be the appreciation of the renminbi and possible upside surprise on traffic recovery and yields. On renminbi appreciation Nomuras economics team has just revised down its forecast for the 2010 renminbi appreciation rate to just 2.6% from 5.6%. We believe that investors will now focus less on the impact of renminbi appreciation on the sector. Even if the appreciation theme finds favour with investors again, Air China is actually the least geared for such an appreciation in terms of percentage change in book value and EPS, in our view. We estimate that for every 1% renminbi appreciation, Air Chinas book value would increase by 1.0% and EPS by 5.3% (or a net profit increase of RMB380mn), CSAs book may gain 1.7% (post capital injection of RMB10.75bn) and EPS by 22.5% (or net profit increase of RMB399mn), while CEAs book value may increase by 2.4% and EPS by 13.8% (or net profit increase of RMB287mn). On the traffic statistics international and regional traffic statistics have continued to record positive growth since July 2009, and we expect that international routes may see higher growth in 1H10 compared to domestic routes traffic, from a lower base; however, such a high growth rate recorded in 1H2010 could slow down in 2H10 when the base effect worsens. We are currently looking for overall RPK to grow by 14% y-y in 2010 and passenger yields to be up by 10% on international and regional routes, and up 3% on domestic routes in 2010.
Market generally expects RMB to appreciate by 3-5%; we believe that analysts have already modeled in the appreciation
Nomura
61
14 June 2010
Air China
Jim Wong
Note: CEA consolidated with Shanghai Airlines from January, 2010. Source: Company data, Nomura research
Exhibit 139. China air ticket price trend (excluding fuel surcharge)
Index Domestic 1/2009 2/2009 3/2009 4/2009 5/2009 6/2009 7/2009 8/2009 9/2009 10/2009 11/2009 12/2009 1/2010 2/2010 3/2010 4/2010 96.700 88.200 94.700 101.000 78.700 89.200 110.900 108.400 101.500 98.700 98.100 92.100 99.100 99.700 103.200 112.300 Regional International 101.900 86.500 88.800 89.200 88.200 86.200 84.600 85.500 99.800 89.700 96.900 97.100 101.700 103.900 101.600 104.400 115.400 102.600 99.500 111.100 106.500 107.700 113.100 131.600 140.300 133.800 127.200 128.500 125.200 129.200 127.000 154.600 Domestic (4.3) (12.8) 2.6 3.2 (12.3) 10.8 15.9 28.0 9.6 2.5 21.0 17.3 2.5 13.0 9.0 11.2 y-y chg % Regional International (6.1) (19.9) (15.4) (13.6) (13.4) (15.7) (21.2) (13.4) (9.4) (10.7) (3.5) (3.0) (0.2) 20.1 14.4 17.0 (4.5) (17.1) (18.1) (10.9) (17.1) (13.8) (11.4) 2.0 4.9 9.4 9.3 18.0 8.5 25.9 27.6 39.2
Nomura
62
14 June 2010
Air China
Jim Wong
Although Air Chinas existing P/B may look more expensive than the likes of CSA, based on the historical levels, both are in fact trading at slightly below their historical mid-cycle levels on 2011F. As shown in the table below, the historical mid-cycle level for Air China is 2.0x P/B and for CSA is 1.2x P/B.
Exhibit 141. Historical P/B levels at different stages of earnings cycle (x)
Trough Air China CSA CEA
* Due to negative equity in 2008. Source: Nomura estimates
Our new price target for Air China of HK$8.21 (down from HK$8.35) is based on a midcycle valuation of 2.0x 2011F P/BV (methodology unchanged). We reiterate our NEUTRAL rating.
Nomura
63
14 June 2010
Air China
Jim Wong
Financial statements
Income statement (RMBmn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Norm alised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (% ) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (% ) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FD EPS Per share Reported EPS (RMB) Norm EPS (RMB) Fully diluted norm EPS (RMB) Book value per share (RMB) DPS (RMB)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 51,082 (46,454) 4,628 (951) 3,676 9,231 (5,554) 3,676 (1,859) 1,365 2,267 5,448 (1,513) 3,936 111 4,046 4,046 (838) 3,208
FY08 52,908 (53,726) (818) (1,089) (1,908) 4,458 (6,365) (1,908) (1,696) (1,184) (6,668) (11,455) 1,611 (9,845) 111 (9,734) 478 (9,256) (9,256)
FY09 51,393 (47,634) 3,759 (1,016) 2,743 9,794 (7,051) 2,743 (1,173) 624 2,872 5,066 (263) 4,803 51 4,854 4,854 4,854
FY10F 66,256 (59,521) 6,734 (1,127) 5,607 13,408 (7,801) 5,607 (1,410) 1,542 3,308 9,047 (1,876) 7,170 32 7,202 7,202 (1,440) 5,762
FY11F 74,364 (67,123) 7,240 (1,205) 6,035 14,536 (8,501) 6,035 (1,851) 1,945 2,706 8,835 (1,723) 7,113 42 7,155 7,155 (1,431) 5,724
22.0 23.5 22.0 0.9 12.2 2.9 12.5 26.3 9.1 18.1 7.2 7.9 27.8 20.7 15.1 1.4 13.4 6.0
na na na 16.3 4.1 41.9 na (1.5) 8.4 (3.6) (17.5) na na 15.4 1.3 (36.6) (3.3)
16.4 17.6 16.4 14.6 3.4 13.7 42.5 7.3 19.1 5.3 9.4 5.2 14.1 1.0 22.1 3.3
11.6 12.4 11.6 1.7 6.6 2.3 9.3 19.5 10.2 20.2 8.5 10.9 20.7 20.0 22.6 1.9 23.4 6.4
11.6 12.4 11.6 1.7 6.5 1.9 8.8 18.2 9.7 19.5 8.1 9.6 19.5 20.0 18.8 1.6 17.7 6.4
(2.9) 119.7 na na na
Nomura
64
14 June 2010
Air China
Jim Wong
Cashflow (RMBmn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 9,231 977 (2,906) 7,302 (7,696) (394) 93 (2,750) (771) 660 251 (2,911) (604) 2,443 (181) 1,658 (1,252) 5,159 3,907 39,232
FY08 4,458 8,160 (7,557) 5,060 (8,173) (3,113) (247) 181 1,616 (103) (542) (2,208) (838) 3,708 (1,581) 1,289 (919) 3,907 2,987 50,231
FY09 9,794 (5,414) 1,085 5,465 (7,259) (1,794) 253 (5,751) (6,161) 683 5,568 (7,202) 6,948 (27) 6,921 (281) 2,987 2,707 60,595
FY10F 13,408 538 (1,229) 12,717 (15,000) (2,283) (2,537) 553 801 (3,465) 6,500 (2,322) (11) 4,167 701 2,707 3,408 57,117
FY11F 14,536 785 (2,647) 12,675 (14,000) (1,325) (2,304) 368 (4,004) (7,265) (1,440) 7,703 6,262 (1,002) 3,408 2,406 65,111
Balance sheet (RMBmn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 3,907 6 2,796 1,142 1,979 9,830 61,692 19,778 91,300 13,196 5,931 7,980 27,106 29,943 3,498 60,548 138 12,251 5,210 838 12,314 30,614 91,300
FY08 2,987 253 1,852 1,243 4,082 10,418 71,821 18,163 100,401 19,395 8,344 14,986 42,725 33,824 3,396 79,945 514 12,251 (4,623) 12,314 19,943 100,401
FY09 2,707 2,057 1,385 2,403 8,551 75,045 24,323 107,919 20,615 6,809 9,775 37,199 42,688 4,078 83,965 39 12,251 (650) 12,314 23,916 107,919
FY10F 3,408 2,652 1,726 2,758 10,544 83,823 26,860 121,227 6,352 8,488 9,925 24,765 54,173 4,632 83,570 39 12,993 5,112 1,440 18,072 37,618 121,227
FY11F 2,406 2,976 1,945 2,953 10,279 96,380 29,164 135,823 8,809 9,563 10,373 28,745 58,708 5,000 92,452 39 12,993 10,836 1,431 18,072 43,332 135,823
0.36 2.0
0.24 (1.1)
0.23 2.3
0.43 4.0
0.36 3.3
4.25 128.2
11.27 251.9
6.19 253.4
4.26 151.8
4.48 150.3
Nomura
65
14 June 2010
Maintained
NOMURA SECURITIES CO LTD
Makoto Murayama
m-murayama@frc.nomura.co.jp
NEUTRAL
Action
Our price target for All Nippon Airways of 300 assumes 11/3 (FY10F) DPS of 1. We might factor in dividend hikes from 12/3 and take a more bullish stance on the stock if the company posts profits for 2Q 11/3 and earnings forecasts at that time indicate probable earnings growth in future. For the time being, our focus will be on monthly data and quarterly results. We remain NEUTRAL.
Closing price on 7 June Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY10F net profit (bn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
273.0
300
9.9% na 5.0 na
Catalysts
If the company maintains earnings and dividend forecasts for 11/3 when it releases 2Q results, investors will likely factor in earnings growth in 12/3. Anchor themes We look for earnings recovery in 11/3 as the number of business travellers picks up along with economic recovery. We continue to focus on dividends, because in our view, an effective dividend, including shareholder benefits, is a key factor in share price formation for major Japanese airlines.
Nomura vs consensus
We forecast dividend hikes in 12/3. We might take a more bullish stance if the companys monthly figures or quarterly results indicate that such a hike is highly likely.
Nov09
Dec09
Jan10
Oct09
Feb10
Absolute () Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market c ap (mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range () 3-mth avg daily turnover (mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Japan Trustee Serv ices Bank T. Nagoya Railroad
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
Apr10
Nomura
66
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
Nomura
67
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
Financial statements
All Nippon Airways [9202]: Quarterly results at the air transportation segment
(bn, except where noted) Domestic routes Available seat kilometers (RPK, '000) % y-y Revenue passenger kilometers (ASK, '000) % y-y Passenger load factor (%) Yield (/RPK) % y-y Passenger revenues (bn) % y-y Domestic freight Freight transportation weight (t) % y-y Freight transportation volume (t/) % y-y Freight revenues (bn) % y-y International routes Available seat kilometers (RPK, '000) % y-y Revenue passenger kilometers (ASK, '000) % y-y Passenger load factor (%) Yield (/RPK) % y-y Passenger revenues (bn) % y-y Domestic freight Freight transportation weight (t) % y-y Freight transportation volume (t/) % y-y Freight revenues (bn) % y-y Q1 7,948,983 (12.5) 14,318,364 (4.1) 55.5 17.4 (4.8) 138.6 (16.7) 109,255 (3.6) 69.9 (1.8) 7.6 (5.3) 4,446,788 (13.2) 6,669,089 (5.9) 66.7 9.9 (35.7) 43.9 (44.1) 86,944 (10.9) 118.4 (41.3) 10.3 (47.7) 10/3 Q2 10,011,321 (4.3) 15,241,114 (1.9) 65.7 18.6 (5.8) 185.8 (9.9) 120,560 (1.4) 68.3 (1.0) 8.2 (2.4) 5,303,905 0.9 6,806,082 (4.7) 77.9 10.8 (35.0) 57.1 (34.4) 99,970 (0.1) 125.8 (42.1) 12.6 (42.2) Q3 8,799,219 (8.4) 14,029,559 (5.1) 62.7 17.7 (3.6) 156.1 (11.7) 122,994 (6.0) 62.7 (9.5) 7.7 (15.0) 5,266,029 14.1 6,655,866 (5.3) 79.1 10.5 (33.9) 55.5 (24.6) 116,520 33.0 138.5 (31.8) 16.1 (9.3) Q4 8,638,083 2.3 13,515,532 (3.3) 63.9 17.4 (2.0) 150.4 0.3 105,925 (2.4) 70.1 1.2 7.4 (1.2) 5,204,182 19.1 6,592,733 (0.9) 78.9 11.1 (6.6) 57.6 11.2 119,015 72.6 140.6 (1.4) 16.7 70.2 Q1 7,964,881 0.2 13,645,401 (4.7) 58.4 17.3 (1.0) 137.5 (0.8) 104,229.3 (4.6) 70.6 1.0 7.4 (3.6) 4,935,935 11.0 6,715,773 0.7 73.5 11.7 19.0 58.0 32.1 121,895.5 40.2 153.9 30.0 18.8 82.3 11/3F Q2 9,971,276 (0.4) 14,570,505 (4.4) 68.4 18.6 0.0 185.0 (0.4) 114,049.8 (5.4) 69.7 2.0 7.9 (3.5) 5,378,160 1.4 7,194,029 5.7 74.8 13.2 23.0 71.2 24.7 134,259.7 34.3 162.3 29.0 21.8 73.2 Q3 Q4 8,905,864 3.1 13,920,998 3.0 64.0 18.5 6.0 164.4 9.3 97,874.7 (7.6) 72.2 3.0 7.1 (4.8) 5,901,542 13.4 8,372,771 27.0 70.5 12.1 9.0 71.2 23.6 124,846.7 4.9 177.2 26.0 22.1 32.2
9,186,385 4.4 14,268,062 1.7 64.4 18.3 3.0 167.9 7.5 113,892.4 (7.4) 64.0 2.0 7.3 (5.5) 5,739,972 9.0 7,787,363 17.0 73.7 12.6 19.0 72.1 29.7 140,989.2 21.0 169.0 22.0 23.8 47.6
Nomura
68
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
All Nippon Airways [9202]: Quarterly results at the air transportation segment (continued)
(bn, except where noted) Air transportation sales by segment Domestic routes Passenger revenues Freight revenues Mail revenues Hand luggage revenues Subtotal International routes Passenger revenues Freight revenues Mail revenues Hand luggage revenues Subtotal Air transportation total Other Air transportation sales, total Y-y % y-y Air transportation segment operating expenses Fuel and fuel taxes As % of operating revenue Landing fees As % of operating revenue Aircraft leasing As % of operating revenue Depreciation As % of operating revenue Repair, parts, outsourcing As % of operating revenue Personnel As % of operating revenue Sales commissions As % of operating revenue Contracting costs As % of operating revenue Other As % of operating revenue Total As % of operating revenue Segment operating profits As % of operating revenue Y-y % y-y Q1 10/3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 11/3F Q2 Q3 Q4
138.6 7.6 0.9 0.1 147.3 43.9 10.3 0.9 0.1 55.2 202.5 34.3 236.8 (70.6) (23.0) 58.4 24.7 23.5 9.9 14.2 6.0 26.9 11.4 14.7 6.2 58.2 24.6 15.9 6.7 19.1 8.1 47.4 20.0 278.3 117.5 (41.5) (17.5) (55.9) -
185.8 8.2 0.8 0.1 194.9 57.1 12.6 0.7 0.1 70.5 265.5 37.8 303.3 (56.1) (15.6) 67.0 22.1 24.3 8.0 14.9 4.9 27.5 9.1 13.1 4.3 57.0 18.8 20.3 6.7 20.1 6.6 46.3 15.3 290.5 95.8 12.8 4.2 (21.0) (62.2)
156.1 7.7 1.0 0.1 164.9 55.5 16.1 0.9 0.1 72.7 237.6 37.9 275.5 (36.0) (11.5) 63.4 23.0 22.5 8.2 15.6 5.7 27.9 10.1 13.8 5.0 57.2 20.8 20.1 7.3 19.7 7.2 47.3 17.2 287.5 104.4 (12.0) (4.4) (1.6) -
150.4 7.4 0.9 0.1 158.9 57.6 16.7 0.8 0.1 75.2 234.1 37.4 271.5 20.2 8.0 61.1 22.5 22.1 8.1 15.6 5.7 29.0 10.7 14.7 5.4 57.1 21.0 20.3 7.5 21.4 7.9 47.4 17.5 289.1 106.5 (17.6) (6.5) 15.3 -
137.5 7.4 0.8 0.1 145.8 58.0 18.8 0.9 0.1 77.7 223.5 42.0 265.5 28.7 12.1 61.1 23.0 22.4 8.4 17.5 6.6 29.0 10.9 15.5 5.8 56.0 21.1 13.0 4.9 19.8 7.5 50.7 19.1 285.0 107.3 (19.5) (7.3) 22.0 -
185.0 7.9 1.0 0.1 194.1 71.2 21.8 1.0 0.1 94.1 288.2 41.8 330.0 26.8 8.8 65.3 19.8 23.9 7.2 17.5 5.3 29.0 8.8 15.5 4.7 56.0 17.0 16.5 5.0 20.0 6.1 50.8 15.4 294.5 89.2 35.5 10.8 22.7 178.3
167.9 7.3 0.9 0.1 176.2 72.1 23.8 0.9 0.1 96.9 273.1 41.9 315.0 39.5 14.3 66.2 21.0 24.2 7.7 19.5 6.2 30.0 9.5 15.5 4.9 57.0 18.1 15.0 4.8 21.9 7.0 50.7 16.1 300.0 95.3 15.0 4.7 27.0 -
164.4 7.1 0.9 0.1 172.5 71.2 22.1 0.7 0.1 94.1 266.6 41.9 308.5 37.0 13.6 66.9 21.7 24.5 7.9 19.5 6.3 31.0 10.0 15.5 5.0 57.0 18.5 15.0 4.9 21.3 6.9 50.3 16.3 301.0 97.6 7.5 2.4 25.1 -
Nomura
69
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
11/3F Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q1
Q2
236.8 278.3 (41.5) (17.5) 33.6 34.8 (1.2) (3.6) 33.9 33.7 0.1 0.4 304.3 346.9 (42.6) (14.0) (34.4) (34.6) 0.2 269.9 312.3 (42.4) (15.7)
303.3 290.5 12.8 4.2 54.0 53.4 0.6 1.1 35.2 34.5 0.7 2.1 392.4 378.4 14.1 3.6 (50.5) (50.6) 0.1 341.9 327.8 14.1 4.1
276.3 287.5 (11.2) (4.1) 39.4 38.9 0.4 1.1 34.2 32.9 1.3 3.9 349.9 359.4 (9.5) (2.7) (37.9) (37.9) (0.1) 311.9 321.5 (9.5) (3.1)
271.5 289.1 (17.6) (6.5) 40.0 39.9 0.2 0.5 34.4 33.6 0.9 2.5 346.0 362.6 (16.6) (4.8) (41.4) (41.5) 0.1 304.6 321.0 (16.4) (5.4)
265.5 285.0 (19.5) (7.3) 37.0 37.2 (0.2) (0.5) 32.0 31.8 0.2 0.6 334.5 354.0 (19.5) (5.8) (35.5) (35.5) 0.0 299.0 318.5 (19.5) (6.5)
330.0 294.5 35.5 10.8 55.0 54.0 1.0 1.8 35.0 34.0 1.0 2.9 420.0 382.5 37.5 8.9 (51.5) (51.5) 0.0 368.5 331.0 37.5 10.2
315.0 300.0 15.0 4.7 40.0 39.8 0.2 0.5 35.0 33.7 1.3 3.7 390.0 373.5 16.5 4.2 (38.0) (38.0) 0.0 352.0 335.5 16.5 4.7
308.5 301.0 7.5 2.4 40.0 40.0 0.0 0.0 32.0 32.0 0.0 0.0 380.5 373.0 7.5 2.0 (40.1) (40.1) 0.0 340.4 332.9 7.5 2.2
Nomura
70
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
All Nippon Airways [9202]: Consolidated by-segment profits/losses on half yearly basis
09/3 (bn, except where noted) By consolidated segment Air transportation Sales Freight revenues Operating profits Margin (%) Travel agencies Sales Operating expenses Freight revenues Margin (%) Other Sales Operating expenses Operating profits Margin (%) Total Sales Operating expenses Operating profits Margin (%) Eliminations/companywide Sales Operating expenses Operating profits Consolidated Sales Operating expenses Operating profits Margin (%)
Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
10/3 H2 H1 H2 H1
11/3F H2
H1
666.9 618.7 48.2 7.2 102.5 102.2 0.3 0.3 74.9 73.7 1.1 1.5 844.2 794.6 49.6 5.9 (90.9) (91.1) 0.2 753.3 703.5 49.8 6.6
562.6 568.8 (43.4) (7.7) 86.3 87.2 (0.9) (1.1) 73.3 71.1 2.2 3.0 722.3 727.2 (42.1) (5.8) (83.0) (82.9) (0.1) 639.3 644.3 (42.2) (6.6)
540.1 568.8 (28.7) (5.3) 87.6 88.2 (0.6) (0.7) 69.1 68.2 0.9 1.3 696.8 725.3 (28.5) (4.1) (84.9) (85.2) 0.2 611.8 640.1 (28.3) (4.6)
547.8 576.6 (28.9) (5.3) 79.4 78.8 0.6 0.8 68.7 66.5 2.2 3.2 695.8 721.8 (26.0) (3.7) (79.3) (79.4) 0.1 616.5 642.4 (25.9) (4.2)
595.5 579.5 16.0 2.7 92.0 91.2 0.8 0.9 67.0 65.8 1.2 1.8 754.5 736.5 18.0 2.4 (87.0) (87.0) 0.0 667.5 649.5 18.0 2.7
623.5 601.0 22.5 3.6 80.0 79.8 0.2 0.3 67.0 65.7 1.3 1.9 770.5 746.5 24.0 3.1 (78.0) (78.0) 0.0 692.5 668.5 24.0 3.5
Nomura
71
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
All Nippon Airways [9202]: transportation volume, revenues, and unit price
08/3 Transportation volume Domestic routes No. of revenue passengers % y-y Freight revenues % y-y Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK, '000) % y-y Passenger load factor (%) Effective freight ('000tkm) Fr % y-y Freight transportation weight (t) % y-y Freight transportation volume (tkm, 000) % y-y Mail transportation weight (t) % y-y Mail transportation volume (tkm, 000) % y-y Freight capacity utilization ratio (freight & mail, %) Freight capacity utilization ratio (freight only, %) International routes No. of revenue passengers % y-y Available seat kilometers (ASK, '000) % y-y Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK, '000) % y-y Passenger load factor (%) Effective freight ('000tkm) % y-y Freight transportation weight (t) % y-y Freight transportation volume (tkm, 000) % y-y Mail transportation weight (t) % y-y Mail transportation volume (tkm, 000) % y-y Freight capacity utilization ratio (freight & mail, %) Freight capacity utilization ratio (freight only, %) Total No. of revenue passengers % y-y Available seat kilometers (ASK, '000) % y-y Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK, '000) % y-y Passenger load factor (%) Effective freight ('000tkm) % y-y Freight transportation weight (t) % y-y Freight transportation volume (tkm, 000) % y-y Mail transportation weight (t) % y-y Mail transportation volume (tkm, 000) % y-y Freight capacity utilization ratio (freight & mail, %) Freight capacity utilization ratio (freight only, %) 09/3 10/3 11/3F 12/3F 13/3F 14/3F 15/3F 16/3F
39,894,927 (6.7) 57,104,569 (3.6) 35,397,606 (5.8) 62.0 1,893,226 458,734 (3.4) 453,640 (2.2) 32,859 (13.5) 33,421 25.7 24.0 4,666,704 5.3 26,723,770 (4.2) 20,220,904 4.4 75.7 2,687,955 422,449 19.3 1,717,270 3.9 20,570 9.6 105,221 +4.3 67.8 63.9 44,561,631 (5.6) 83,828,339 (3.8) 55,618,510 (2.4) 66.3 4,581,181 881,183 6.3 2,170,910 2.6 53,429 (5.9) 138,642 0.5 50.4 47.4
41,251,355 3.4 56,419,314 (1.2) 36,034,763 1.8 63.9 430,292 (6.2) 426,875 (5.9) 5,259,375 12.7 29,850,451 11.7 21,939,681 8.5 73.5 522,147 23.6 1,981,730 15.4 46,510,730 4.4 86,269,765 2.9 57,974,444 4.2 67.2 952,439 8.1 2,408,605 10.9 -
41,292,606 0.1 57,096,346 1.2 36,142,867 0.3 63.3 431,153 0.2 427,729 0.2 5,943,094 13.0 36,178,747 21.2 25,230,633 15.0 69.7 562,352 7.7 2,336,459 17.9 47,235,700 1.6 93,275,093 8.1 61,373,500 5.9 65.8 993,505 4.3 2,764,188 14.8 -
41,705,532 1.0 57,381,828 0.5 36,504,296 1.0 63.6 435,465 1.0 6,180,818 4.0 37,625,897 4.0 26,492,165 5.0 70.4 607,340 8.0 47,886,350 1.4 95,007,724 1.9 62,996,460 2.6 66.3 1,042,805 5.0 -
42,122,587 1.0 57,668,737 0.5 36,869,339 1.0 63.9 439,819 1.0 6,428,051 4.0 39,130,932 4.0 27,816,773 5.0 71.1 655,928 8.0 48,550,638 1.4 96,799,669 1.9 64,686,112 2.7 66.8 1,095,747 5.1 -
42,543,813 1.0 57,957,080 0.5 37,238,032 1.0 64.3 444,217 1.0 6,685,173 4.0 40,696,170 4.0 29,207,611 5.0 71.8 708,402 8.0 49,228,986 1.4 98,653,250 1.9 66,445,644 2.7 67.4 1,152,619 5.2 -
42,969,251 1.0 58,246,866 0.5 37,610,413 1.0 64.6 448,660 1.0 6,952,580 4.0 42,324,017 4.0 30,667,992 5.0 72.5 765,074 8.0 49,921,831 1.4 100,570,882 1.9 68,278,405 2.8 67.9 1,213,734 5.3 -
Nomura
72
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
All Nippon Airways [9202]: transportation volume, revenues, and unit price (continued)
08/3 Transportation revenues, unit prices, etc Domestic routes Passenger revenues (bn) % y-y Freight revenues % y-y Yield (/RPK) % y-y Revenues per passenger () % y-y Freight revenues % y-y Freight unit price per tonne () % y-y International routes Passenger revenues (bn) % y-y Unit revenues (/ASK) % y-y Yield (/RPK) % y-y Revenues per passenger () % y-y Freight revenues (bn) % y-y Freight unit price () % y-y 09/3 10/3 11/3F 12/3F 13/3F 14/3F 15/3F 16/3F
739.5 1.9 11.8 1.5 18.5 3.5 16,233 3.9 30.6 (0.0) 66,079 (1.0) 311.6 11.9 11.0 5.2 14.6 5.9 64,555 5.5 72.2 16.1 217,114 (3.1)
699.4 (5.4) 11.8 0.0 18.6 0.4 16,359 0.8 33.1 8.3 69,676 5.4 291.1 (6.6) 10.4 (5.3) 15.0 2.7 65,674 1.7 69.1 (4.3) 194,972 (10.2)
631.0 (9.8) 11.0 (6.4) 17.8 (4.2) 15,816 (3.3) 31.8 (3.8) 69,384 (0.4) 214.1 (26.4) 8.0 (23.2) 10.6 (29.6) 45,883 (30.1) 55.8 (19.3) 131,969 (32.3)
655.2 3.8 11.6 5.1 18.2 2.0 15,879 0.4 30.4 (4.4) 70,703 1.9 272.5 27.3 9.1 13.9 12.4 17.3 51,848 13.0 86.5 55.1 165,621 25.5
676.2 3.2 11.8 2.0 18.7 2.9 16,371 3.1 30.4 (0.0) 70,561 (0.2) 325.9 19.6 9.9 8.0 12.9 4.0 57,603 11.1 100.6 16.3 178,870 8.0
693.2 2.5 11.8 0.0 19.0 1.5 16,617 1.5 30.7 1.0 70,561 0.0 349.1 7.1 10.2 3.0 13.2 2.0 59,907 4.0 109.7 9.1 180,659 1.0
710.6 2.5 11.8 0.0 19.3 1.5 16,866 1.5 31.0 1.0 70,561 0.0 373.9 7.1 10.4 2.0 13.4 2.0 62,304 4.0 119.7 9.1 182,466 1.0
728.5 2.5 11.8 0.0 19.6 1.5 17,119 1.5 31.3 1.0 70,561 0.0 400.4 7.1 10.6 2.0 13.7 2.0 64,796 4.0 130.6 9.1 184,290 1.0
746.8 2.5 11.8 0.0 19.9 1.5 17,376 1.5 31.7 1.0 70,561 0.0 428.8 7.1 10.8 2.0 14.0 2.0 67,388 4.0 142.4 9.1 186,133 1.0
Note: Passenger revenues = yield RPK 1,000,000. Passenger revenues = unit revenues ASK 1,000,000. Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
(1.8) (1.9)
13/3F
14/3F
15/3F
16/3F
93 70 77 80 90 92.9 70.7
30 20 90.0 85.0
20
10
110
90.0 85.0
90.0 85.0
90.0 85.0
08/3
09/3
10/3
11/3F
12/3F
13/3F
14/3F
15/3F
16/3F
739.5 30.6 8.0 0.3 778.4 311.6 72.2 3.6 0.5 387.9 1,166.2 135.4 1,301.6
699.4 33.1 3.9 0.3 736.7 291.1 69.1 3.7 0.5 364.3 1,101.1 128.4 1,229.5
631.0 31.8 3.5 0.4 666.8 214.1 55.8 3.3 0.5 273.6 940.4 147.5 1,087.9
655.2 30.4 4.0 0.3 689.9 272.5 86.5 3.5 0.5 363.0 1,052.9 166.1 1,219.0
676.2 30.4 4.0 0.3 710.9 325.9 100.6 3.5 0.5 430.5 1,141.4 163.4 1,304.8
693.2 30.7 4.0 0.3 728.2 349.1 109.7 3.5 0.5 462.8 1,191.0 159.8 1,350.8
710.6 31.0 4.0 0.3 746.0 373.9 119.7 3.5 0.5 497.5 1,243.5 161.3 1,404.8
728.5 31.3 4.0 0.3 764.2 400.4 130.6 3.5 0.5 535.0 1,299.1 162.7 1,461.8
746.8 31.7 4.1 0.4 783.0 428.8 142.4 3.6 0.6 575.4 1,358.4 162.8 1,521.2
Nomura
73
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
08/3 266.1 20.4 106.0 8.1 63.3 4.9 112.8 8.7 61.8 4.7 241.3 18.5 95.3 7.3 82.4 6.3 194.7 15.0 1,223.7 94.0 77.9 6.0
09/3 303.4 24.7 101.1 8.2 59.9 4.9 110.0 8.9 63.3 5.1 232.5 18.9 92.7 7.5 79.9 6.5 181.9 14.8 1,224.7 99.6 4.8 0.4
10/3 249.9 23.0 92.4 8.5 60.3 5.5 111.3 10.2 56.3 5.2 229.5 21.1 76.6 7.0 80.3 7.4 188.4 17.3 1,145.4 105.3 (57.5) (5.3)
11/3F 259.5 21.3 95.0 7.8 74.0 6.1 119.0 9.8 62.0 5.1 226.0 18.5 59.5 4.9 83.0 6.8 202.5 16.6 1,180.5 96.8 38.5 3.2
12/3F 274.0 21.0 99.0 7.6 75.0 5.7 129.0 9.9 67.0 5.1 230.0 17.6 67.5 5.2 92.5 7.1 200.8 15.4 1,234.8 94.6 70.0 5.4
13/3F 275.0 20.4 95.5 7.1 77.0 5.7 135.0 10.0 68.5 5.1 240.0 17.8 70.0 5.2 95.0 7.0 200.8 14.9 1,256.8 93.0 94.0 7.0
14/3F 285.0 20.3 98.5 7.0 80.0 5.7 140.0 10.0 70.0 5.0 250.0 17.8 72.5 5.2 100.0 7.1 204.8 14.6 1,300.8 92.6 104.0 7.4
15/3F 295.0 20.2 102.5 7.0 83.0 5.7 145.0 9.9 74.0 5.1 260.0 17.8 74.0 5.1 104.0 7.1 215.3 14.7 1,352.8 92.5 109.0 7.5
16/3F 305.0 20.0 106.0 7.0 84.5 5.6 150.0 9.9 75.0 4.9 265.0 17.4 75.0 4.9 105.0 6.9 219.7 14.4 1,385.2 91.1 136.0 8.9
08/3
09/3
10/3
11/3F
12/3F
13/3F
14/3F
15/3F
16/3F
1,301.6 1,223.7 77.9 6.0 215.4 214.3 1.1 0.5 199.0 193.8 5.2 2.6 1,716.0 1,631.8 84.2 4.9 (228.2) (228.4) 0.2 1,487.8 1,403.4 84.4 5.7
1,229.5 1,224.7 4.8 0.4 188.8 189.4 (0.6) (0.3) 148.2 144.9 3.3 2.3 1,566.5 1,559.0 7.5 0.5 (173.9) (174.0) 0.0 1,392.6 1,385.0 7.5 0.5
1,087.9 1,145.4 (57.5) (5.3) 167.0 167.0 (0.0) 0.0 137.8 134.7 3.1 2.2 1,392.6 1,447.1 (54.5) (3.9) (164.3) (164.6) 0.3 1,228.4 1,282.5 (54.2) (4.4)
1,219.0 1,180.5 38.5 3.2 172.0 171.0 1.0 0.6 134.0 131.5 2.5 1.9 1,525.0 1,483.0 42.0 2.8 (165.0) (165.0) 0.0 1,360.0 1,318.0 42.0 3.1
1,304.8 1,234.8 70.0 5.4 175.0 174.0 1.0 0.6 135.0 132.5 2.5 1.9 1,614.8 1,541.3 73.5 4.6 (168.8) (168.8) 0.0 1,446.0 1,372.5 73.5 5.1
1,350.8 1,256.8 94.0 7.0 175.0 174.0 1.0 0.6 135.0 132.5 2.5 1.9 1,660.8 1,563.3 97.5 5.9 (168.8) (168.8) 0.0 1,492.0 1,394.5 97.5 6.5
1,404.8 1,300.8 104.0 7.4 175.0 174.0 1.0 0.6 135.0 132.5 2.5 1.9 1,714.8 1,607.3 107.5 6.3 (168.8) (168.8) 0.0 1,546.0 1,438.5 107.5 7.0
1,461.8 1,352.8 109.0 7.5 175.0 174.0 1.0 0.6 135.0 132.5 2.5 1.9 1,771.8 1,659.3 112.5 6.4 (168.8) (168.8) 0.0 1,603.0 1,490.5 112.5 7.0
1,521.2 1,385.2 136.0 8.9 175.0 174.0 1.0 0.6 135.0 132.5 2.5 1.9 1,831.2 1,691.7 139.5 7.6 (168.7) (168.7) 0.0 1,662.5 1,523.0 139.5 8.4
Nomura
74
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
08/3 1,487.8 1,403.4 84.4 5.7 -8.5 12.6 3.2 1.4 8.0 40.5 15.0 25.4 56.5 -9.7 139.8 81.1 115.2 50.2 44 0.9 64.1 1,948 32.9 92.9 0.00 5.00 9.7 15
09/3 1,392.6 1,385.0 7.6 0.5 -91.0 25.5 1.6 1.3 22.6 33.0 14.8 18.1 0.1 -99.8 4.1 8.7 (4.4) 0.1 (0.2) (4.3) 1,933 (2.2) 56.2 0.00 1.00 1.9 -
10/3 1,228.4 1,282.5 (54.2) (4.4) 11.3 1.1 1.5 8.6 43.3 18.2 25.2 (86.3) 2.3 11.6 (95.5) (38.0) 40 (0.2) (57.4) 2,506 2,327 (24.7) 24.3 0.00 0.00 0.0 -
11/3F 1,360.0 1,318.0 42.0 3.1 9.0 3.0 1.0 5.0 38.0 19.0 19.0 13.0 5.0 10.0 8.0 3.0 38 0.0 5.0 2,506 2,506 2.0 50.7 0.00 1.00 2.5 50
12/3F 1,446.0 1,372.5 73.5 5.1 75.0 8.5 2.5 1.0 5.0 51.5 19.0 32.5 30.5 135.0 5.0 5.0 30.5 11.5 38 0.0 19.0 2,506 2,506 7.6 60.3 0.00 3.00 7.5 39
13/3F 1,492.0 1,394.5 97.5 6.5 32.7 8.5 2.5 1.0 5.0 38.0 18.0 20.0 68.0 122.7 5.0 5.0 68.0 26.0 38 0.0 42.0 2,506 2,506 16.8 72.2 0.00 5.00 12.5 30
14/3F 1,546.0 1,438.5 107.5 7.0 10.2 8.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 38.0 18.0 20.0 77.5 13.9 5.0 5.0 77.5 29.5 38 0.0 48.0 2,506 2,506 19.2 76.6 0.00 5.00 12.5 26
15/3F 1,603.0 1,490.5 112.5 7.0 4.6 8.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 38.0 18.0 20.0 82.5 6.4 5.0 5.0 82.5 31.5 38 0.0 51.0 2,506 2,506 20.4 79.8 0.00 5.00 12.5 25
16/3F 1,662.5 1,523.0 139.5 8.4 24.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 5.0 38.0 18.0 20.0 109.5 32.7 5.0 5.0 109.5 41.5 38 0.0 68.0 2,506 2,506 27.1 88.6 1.00 6.00 17.5 26
10/3 (95.5) 113.8 (5.3) 70.1 83.0 (186.2) 10.0 (116.0) 71.0 (30.7) (251.9) (168.9) (17.5) 194.3 (94.1) (30.0) (12.3) 141.8 (1.1) (1.9) (5.5) 173.8 (0.1) 4.8
(37.3) (111.1) (150.9) 44.0 205.7 (75.3) 19.9 (50.0) (16.1) (5.5) (9.7) 1.6 114.5 (0.1) (36.5)
Nomura
75
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
08/3 473.5 51.4 129.3 118.2 52.9 121.7 1,309.8 1,099.1 47.1 163.6 0.1 1,783.4 547.0 183.3 2.6 68.0 50.0 15.8 81.3 145.9 780.5 145.0 429.6 56.9 149.0 1,327.4 422.7 30.3 453.0 3.0 455.9 1,783.4
09/3 446.7 59.7 84.5 89.2 57.1 156.2 1,314.2 1,080.3 62.9 171.0 0.2 1,761.1 503.1 148.9 46.6 81.1 30.0 11.8 1.3 183.4 932.1 135.0 547.0 45.8 204.4 1,435.3 403.2 (81.3) 321.9 3.9 325.8 1,761.1
10/3 421.5 13.2 180.6 96.8 56.9 74.0 1,436.8 1,152.4 70.6 213.8 0.8 1,859.1 472.6 151.0 29.1 99.8 40.0 11.9 2.7 138.2 906.4 95.0 628.6 37.3 145.5 1,379.0 485.5 (12.0) 473.6 6.5 480.1 1,859.1
11/3F 483.9 51.2 180.6 107.2 63.0 81.9 1,404.9 1,169.4 70.6 165.0 0.5 1,889.3 474.9 167.2 29.1 82.6 20.0 15.0 3.0 158.0 922.4 95.0 656.0 26.0 145.5 1,397.3 490.5 (5.0) 485.5 6.5 492.0 1,889.3
12/3F 497.9 49.3 180.6 114.0 67.0 87.1 1,463.9 1,228.4 70.6 165.0 0.5 1,962.4 462.5 177.8 29.1 66.5 0.0 15.0 11.5 162.6 986.3 125.0 699.5 16.3 145.5 1,448.8 507.0 0.0 507.0 6.5 513.6 1,962.4
13/3F 512.3 55.1 180.6 117.6 69.1 89.8 1,473.9 1,238.4 70.6 165.0 0.5 1,986.7 498.7 183.4 29.1 57.3 20.0 15.0 26.0 167.8 939.9 105.0 682.2 7.3 145.5 1,438.6 541.6 0.0 541.6 6.5 548.1 1,986.7
14/3F 521.6 54.5 180.6 121.9 71.6 93.1 1,478.9 1,243.4 70.6 165.0 0.5 2,001.0 497.5 190.1 29.1 60.0 0.0 15.0 29.5 173.9 919.9 105.0 662.2 7.3 145.5 1,417.5 577.0 0.0 577.0 6.5 583.6 2,001.0
15/3F 525.5 47.8 180.6 126.4 74.3 96.5 1,478.9 1,243.4 70.6 165.0 0.5 2,004.9 513.0 197.1 29.1 60.0 0.0 15.0 31.5 180.3 869.9 105.0 612.2 7.3 145.5 1,382.9 615.5 0.0 615.5 6.5 622.1 2,004.9
16/3F 557.9 68.9 180.6 131.1 77.0 100.4 1,473.9 1,238.3 70.6 165.1 0.6 2,032.4 477.1 204.4 29.1 0.0 0.0 15.1 41.5 187.0 880.0 105.0 622.3 7.3 145.5 1,357.1 668.5 0.3 668.8 6.5 675.3 2,032.4
Note: (1) Adjusted interest-bearing debt total = interest-bearing debt total (on balance sheet) + off-balance-sheet leasing debt + unrecognized retirement benefit obligations. (2) Net adjusted interest-bearing debt = adjusted interest-bearing debt total cash & deposits. Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Nomura
76
14 June 2010
Makoto Murayama
08/3 453.0 232.6 201.2 1.70 2.30 2.19 5.18 4.92 25.4 30.3 5.7 13.5 5.3 16.3 2.0 2.8
09/3 321.9 166.5 120.5 2.79 3.62 3.43 9.66 9.16 18.3 21.7 0.5 8.7 0.6 (1.0) 1.8 2.8
10/3 473.6 188.9 59.6 1.99 2.51 2.49 19.97 19.74 25.5 28.5 (4.4) 4.9 (2.8) (12.9) 2.0 3.1
11/3F 485.5 193.7 164.0 1.90 2.38 2.27 7.04 6.72 25.7 29.6 3.1 12.1 2.5 1.0 2.0 9.3
12/3F 507.0 202.3 205.5 1.88 2.29 2.19 5.65 5.41 25.8 30.4 5.1 14.2 4.0 3.8 2.0 5.0
13/3F 541.6 216.1 236.5 1.69 2.06 1.96 4.72 4.48 27.3 32.7 6.5 15.9 5.1 8.0 1.9 4.8
14/3F 577.0 230.2 251.5 1.52 1.86 1.77 4.27 4.05 28.8 35.0 7.0 16.3 5.5 8.6 2.0 3.7
15/3F 615.5 245.6 261.5 1.35 1.65 1.58 3.89 3.71 30.7 37.7 7.0 16.3 5.8 8.6 2.1 3.9
16/3F 668.8 266.8 293.5 1.16 1.44 1.34 3.28 3.05 32.9 41.0 8.4 17.7 7.1 10.6 2.2 3.4
Note: (1) ROA = (operating profits + interest & dividend receipts) total assets. (2) EBITDA = operating profits + depreciation.
Nomura
77
14 June 2010
Maintained
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
jim.wong@nomura.com shirley.lam@nomura.com
BUY
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY10F net profit (RMBmn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
Action
While Singapore Airlines (SIA) has ruled out investing in China Eastern Airlines (CEA), the chairman of CEA continues to look for a strategic partner to come on board within the year. We reiterate our positive view on the shares. CEA is also a beneficiary of recent positive regulatory policies. We reiterate our BUY rating with a lower price target of HK$3.95.
HK$3.28
HK$3.95
(from HK$5.00)
Catalysts
Possible introduction of strategic partners, Shanghai World Expo. The stock remains positively sensitive to any renminbi appreciation. Anchor themes We see reforms as net positive. Reforms are expected on shareholding structure, airport charges, domestic route operating rights, airport infrastructure levy, jet fuel price, customs tax on aircraft purchases and ticket pricing.
Nomura vs consensus
We are above consensus, mainly on our being more positive on the company as a beneficiary from the Shanghai World Expo.
FY08
41,073 (15,269) (12,292) (2.53) na na na na 0.0 284.4 -400.5
240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 Feb10 Apr10 3m 5.8 5.2 12.4
Oct09
Dec 09
Absolute (HK $) Absolute (US $) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (% ) 52-week range (HK$) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (% ) China Eastern Air Holding Co Shanghai Lianhe Investment
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
6m 8.6 7.9 21.6 4,027 29.5 4.43/1.74 9.39 Hard 59.9 4.5
Nomura
78
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Drilling down
6.83 6.83
5.50 2.60
As a result of this forecast change, we revise down our anticipated FX gains for Air China. Nevertheless, we expect the decline in FX gains to be partly mitigated in FY10F by the rise in revenue following the introduction of the two positive policy measures, and will be fully mitigated in FY11F earnings. According to the announcement made by the Ministry of Finance on 5 May 2010, the Notice Concerning Exemption of Business Tax on the Provision of International Transport Services (Cai Shui [2010] No. 8) was jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation (the Notice). Pursuant to the Notice, it is provided that since 1 January 2010, entities or individuals within the Peoples Republic of China providing international transport services shall be exempt from the business tax. Recall: prior to the announcement, all Chinese airlines needed to pay business tax of approximately 3% for all traffic revenue (including domestic, regional and international routes). As the exemption from business tax applies to international routes and regional routes traffic revenue, Air China should be the largest beneficiary for its leading exposure to these two regions, while China Southern Airlines would be the lagging beneficiary, and CEA would be in the middle, in our opinion. On 7 May, 2010, China Eastern Airlines announced that the company (CEA only) would benefit from a reduction in business tax and additional expenses of about RMB171mn in FY09 should the policy take effect in 2009. We estimate that CEA can pay RMB566mn less in taxes; this compares with Air Chinas estimated tax saving of RMB742mn, and China Southern Airlines possible tax savings of RMB262mn. Furthermore, on 22 May 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that Chinese airlines will be able to set their own premium-class fares on domestic routes effective 1 June 2010. Currently, first-class fares are set at 150% of the economy class fare, and business class fares are set at 130% of the economy class fare. Again, we see Air China as the largest beneficiary as it has a higher proportion of revenue coming from premium-class fares, at an estimated 8%, vs an estimated 5-6% for China Southern and China Eastern. Management of CEA has yet to decide if it will increase ticket prices. However, if we assume 6% of total domestic revenue comes from premium class and an average fare hike of 20%, we estimate CEA can fetch additional revenue of RMB189mn (or net profit of RMB149mn) in 2H10.
The negative impact from the slide in renminbi appreciation rate will be mitigated by revenue rise
Nomura
79
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Combining the two positive policies and renminbi appreciation rate changes, we revise down our FY10 net profit forecast by 9.9%, but revise up FY11F net profit by 22.9%.
We cut our FY10F net profit, but increase FY11F net profit
Net gearing (%) 112 (as Dec 2008) 127 (as Mar 2010) 173 (as Mar 2009) 210* (as Dec 2010) 356 (as Dec 2009) 578 (as Dec 2009) 5,110 (as Dec 2009) Unlisted Unlisted Merged with Air France Acquired by Delta Air Unlisted
Nomura
80
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Assuming that a strategic investor takes a 25% stake in CEA via new shares, CEAs parent and Shanghai government entities would still hold a 52.9% stake in CEA.
Chinese governments stake in CEA would drop to 52.9% if a strategic investor takes a 25% stake
42.8 17.1 4.5 1.7 3.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 15.6 12.1 1.7 100.0
We note that while previously Air China voted down the CEA-Singapore Airlines deal in 2007 with its 12.1% H-share holding, this time around we see that Air Chinas stake in CEA has been diluted to only 1.7% of total shares, or 5.4% of H-shares. Hence, Air Chinas say in a CEA deal is now substantially diluted and its support for such a deal is no longer a prerequisite. We note, however, that a strategic stake in CEA may not come cheap. As CEAs issued shares have now expanded to 11,277mn shares (after issuing shares to the government for capital injections), from 4,867mn previously, assuming that the strategic shareholder pays HK$3.80/share (SIAs bid price in CEA in 2007) for a 25% stake in CEA consisting of new shares, the strategic investor would need to pay HK$12.54bn (or US$1.61bn). This would be 75% higher than the HK$7.18bn (or US$0.92bn) that SIA and Temasek were to have paid for their 24% stake at HK$3.80 per CEA share back in 2007.
Exhibit 147. Sensitivity analysis of CEAs book value and price target to the pricing of strategic investors stake
Total proceeds from strategic investors (HK$mn) 6,600 8,250 9,900 12,540 13,200 14,850 16,500 Book value post strategic investors (RMB/shr) 1.43 1.54 1.65 1.83 1.87 1.98 2.09 Price target (HK$/shr) 3.10 3.33 3.57 3.95 4.04 4.28 4.52
Selling price (HK$/shr) 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.8 4.0 4.5 5.0
Source: Nomura estimates
Nomura
81
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
As for CEA, should a strategic investor inject capital at HK$3.80/share (a 25% stake), we estimate the airlines book value would rise an estimated 52% to RMB1.64/share from RMB1.08/share in FY10F, or by 39% to RMB1.83/share from RMB1.32/share in FY11F. Some investors may be concerned that another airline coming in may be less likely given the rejection of SIA. Nevertheless, we note that the chairman of CEA indicated that financial investors are welcome (source: Sing Tao Daily, 24 May 2010); hence, we also dont rule out the possibility that CEA may finally place A-share shares to A-share financial investors to relieve financial pressure. Should this be the case, the price on the new shares would be higher than our current assumption of HK$3.80/share, since CEAs A-shares are trading at RMB7.72/share. Other positive catalysts include: 1) Possible beneficiary from renminbi appreciation. We estimate that for every 1% renminbi appreciation, CEAs book value would increase 2.4% and its EPS, by 13.8% (or net profit up RMB287mn), China Southern Airs book may gain 1.7% (after a capital injection of RMB10.75bn) and EPS by 22.5% (or a net profit enhancement of RMB399mn), and Air Chinas book would rise 1.0% and EPS, by 5.3% (or a net profit enhancement of RMB380mn). 2) the World Expo may boost CEAs passenger volume by 11.8-17.1% in 2010.
Nomura
82
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
1Q09 8,946 (8,423) (219) 304 (595) (305) (684) (1,281) 14 417 877 (3) 24 (13) 29 40 (1209)
1Q10 15,569 (12,962) (377) 2,230 (1,074) (471) (389) 297 1 455 63 (4) 812 (25) (17) 770 299
y-y chg (%) 74 53.9 72.1 633.6 80.5 54.4 (43.1) na (92.9) 9.1 (92.8) 33.3 3,283.3 92.3 na 1,825.0 na
Furthermore, recent traffic operating statistics and yields continue to see solid growth.
Note: CEA consolidated with Shanghai Airlines from January 2010. Source: Company data, Nomura research
Nomura
83
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Exhibit 150. China air ticket price trend (excluding fuel surcharge)
Index Domestic 1/2009 2/2009 3/2009 4/2009 5/2009 6/2009 7/2009 8/2009 9/2009 10/2009 11/2009 12/2009 1/2010 2/2010 3/2010 4/2010 96.700 88.200 94.700 101.000 78.700 89.200 110.900 108.400 101.500 98.700 98.100 92.100 99.100 99.700 103.200 112.300 Regional International 101.900 86.500 88.800 89.200 88.200 86.200 84.600 85.500 99.800 89.700 96.900 97.100 101.700 103.900 101.600 104.400 115.400 102.600 99.500 111.100 106.500 107.700 113.100 131.600 140.300 133.800 127.200 128.500 125.200 129.200 127.000 154.600 Domestic (4.3) (12.8) 2.6 3.2 (12.3) 10.8 15.9 28.0 9.6 2.5 21.0 17.3 2.5 13.0 9.0 11.2 y-y chg (%) Regional International (6.1) (19.9) (15.4) (13.6) (13.4) (15.7) (21.2) (13.4) (9.4) (10.7) (3.5) (3.0) (0.2) 20.1 14.4 17.0 (4.5) (17.1) (18.1) (10.9) (17.1) (13.8) (11.4) 2.0 4.9 9.4 9.3 18.0 8.5 25.9 27.6 39.2
Price target of HK$3.95 based on 1.7x FY11F P/BV, post strategic investors
Given the reduced possibility that SIA will invest in CEA, we cut our price target to HK$3.95 from HK$5.00 after lowering our two assumptions on valuation: 1) Lowering valuation multiple to 1.7x (average of Air China and China Southern Airlines mid-cycle valuation) from 2.0x (on par with Air Chinas mid-cycle valuation), as investors may not be willing to pay 2.0x after realising that SIA will not become a strategic investor. Lowering selling price of CEA to new potential strategic investors to HK$3.80/share from HK$4.30/share given recent share price consolidation and the reduced likelihood of another airline paying more than SIAs intended price in 2007.
Fair value at HK$3.95 based on 1.7x FY11F P/BV, post strategic investors
2)
We value CEA at HK$3.95 based on 1.7x FY11F P/BV, after assuming strategic investors would take a 25% stake in CEA at HK$3.80/share. Our previous price target of HK$5.00 was based on 2.0x FY11F P/BV, after assuming strategic investors would take a 25% stake in CEA at HK$4.30/share. Nevertheless, we note that the chairman of CEA told the Sing Tao Daily on 24 May that financial investors are also welcome. Hence, CEA may issue A-shares to domestic financial investors. In this case the selling price could be much higher than our assumption of HK$3.80. Note that the A-shares are trading at RMB7.72.
Nomura
84
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Goodwill of Shanghai Airlines acquisition a swing factor to book value, more on upside risks
We note that as per CEAs 1Q10 report, the book value of CEA as at end-1Q10 was just RMB0.19/share, far below our expectation of full-year of RMB1.08/share. The discrepancy was mainly due to the lack of Shanghai Airlines acquisition goodwill in 1Q10. Management of CEA stated in its 1Q10 report that the company was still studying the goodwill of Shanghai Airlines acquisition, and that the amount will be disclosed in the interim report. Here, note that the amount of goodwill could change CEAs book value significantly, depending on how management calculates the consideration of Shanghai Airlines acquisition price. Recall that CEA announced it would acquire Shanghai Airlines through a share swap with a ratio of one Shanghai Airlines share for 1.3 CEA shares. Hence, the total number of shares issued for acquiring Shanghai Airlines will be 1,695mn. If shareholders do not want to own new CEA shares, they can choose to accept a cash payment at RMB5.50/share for Shanghai Airlines shareholders, RMB5.28/share for old CEA A-shareholders, and HK$1.56/share for old CEA Hshareholders. Depending on the date of the share price of CEA and which type of shares (A- or H-shares) are used for calculation, the consideration for Shanghai Airlines acquisition will be very different. Given that the shares issued to Shanghai Airlines shareholders were CEAs A-shares, we believe it is more appropriate to use CEAs A-share share price for calculation. If we use RMB5.28/share (the cash offer price), the total consideration will be RMB8,950mn. If we use RMB5.33/share (last trading price before announcement of the acquisition) for the calculation, the total consideration will be RMB9,034mn. If we use a share price of RMB6.52 (as at 28 January 2010, the completion date of acquisition of Shanghai Airlines), the total consideration will be RMB11,051mn. We have modelled in a consideration of RMB8,950mn. We believe the risk to our book value could be on the upside.
Goodwill for acquisition of Shanghai Airlines has yet to be determined by management
Nomura
85
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Financial statements
Income statement (RMBmn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Norm alised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (% ) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (% ) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FD EPS Per share Reported EPS (RMB) Norm EPS (RMB) Fully diluted norm EPS (RMB) Book value per share (RMB) DPS (RMB)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 42,534 (38,487) 4,047 (3,692) 355 5,075 (4,720) 355 (1,941) 88 2,103 605 (24) 582 24 606 (227) 379 379
FY08 41,073 (49,256) (8,183) (3,923) (12,107) (7,325) (4,782) (12,107) (2,248) 94 1,981 (12,279) (74) (12,353) 61 (12,292) (2,977) (15,269) (15,269)
FY09 38,990 (33,307) 5,683 (3,752) 1,931 7,134 (5,203) 1,931 (1,645) (23) 95 359 (53) 306 (28) 278 (109) 169 169
FY10F 65,349 (56,902) 8,448 (5,072) 3,376 9,843 (6,466) 3,376 (2,305) (15) 1,393 2,449 (313) 2,136 (47) 2,089 2,089 2,089
FY11F 72,842 (64,230) 8,611 (5,345) 3,267 10,202 (6,935) 3,267 (2,597) (20) 2,657 3,308 (473) 2,835 (75) 2,760 2,760 2,760
25.5 30.8 40.9 18.4 6.3 14.9 173.1 9.5 11.9 0.8 0.9 3.9 5.3 0.5 14.6 0.7
98.9 119.1 162.9 21.7 22.3 9.9 36.9 14.6 18.3 5.0 0.4 14.6 19.5 1.5 (2.8) 2.7
15.3 18.4 15.3 5.3 2.6 8.5 24.8 12.9 15.1 5.2 3.2 12.8 13.8 1.4 31.2 3.9
11.1 13.4 11.1 3.8 2.0 8.4 26.3 11.8 14.0 4.5 3.8 14.3 12.4 1.3 20.4 3.1
13.0 92.2 na na na
(5.1) na na na na
Nomura
86
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Cashflow (RMBmn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 5,075 (1,070) (3,165) 840 (2,265) (1,425) (199) (92) 1,529 723 (1,452) (917) (46) (132) 763 585 (332) 1,987 1,655 44,661
FY08 (7,325) 11,766 (4,327) 114 (2,471) (2,357) (405) (437) 31 711 1,646 (811) (53) 2,283 377 2,607 1,796 1,655 3,451 52,459
FY09 7,134 (2,552) (3,314) 1,268 (7,613) (6,344) 247 1,346 62 (1,278) (5,968) (44) 14,056 (11,113) 1,353 4,252 (1,716) 3,451 1,735 42,970
FY10F 9,843 2,788 (6,590) 6,040 (9,000) (2,960) (207) (4,004) 1,616 645 (4,910) (1,603) 6,619 5,015 105 1,735 1,840 55,338
FY11F 10,202 1,937 (4,080) 8,059 (9,000) (941) (134) (975) 505 (1,347) (2,891) 5,842 (1,059) 4,784 1,892 1,840 3,733 57,670
Balance sheet (RMBmn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 1,655 2,096 1,125 4,916 9,792 938 47,270 1,245 8,496 67,741 21,040 3,138 11,712 35,890 25,276 3,642 64,809 572 4,867 (2,935) 429 2,361 67,741
FY08 3,451 1,147 871 4,931 10,400 1,343 52,678 165 8,466 73,052 28,430 5,145 20,283 53,858 27,480 4,353 85,691 458 4,867 (18,204) 239 (13,097) 73,052
FY09 1,735 1,371 932 2,825 6,863 1,096 56,704 70 7,119 71,851 14,456 6,480 14,575 35,511 30,250 4,415 70,175 442 9,582 (18,035) 9,688 1,235 71,851
FY10F 1,840 2,428 1,480 4,174 9,922 1,303 71,763 8,609 11,123 102,720 21,051 8,923 17,874 47,847 36,128 6,031 90,006 554 11,277 (15,946) 16,830 12,160 102,720
FY11F 3,733 2,706 1,632 4,659 12,729 1,437 78,683 8,177 12,098 113,124 23,392 9,873 19,775 53,040 38,010 6,536 97,586 617 11,277 (13,186) 16,830 14,921 113,124
0.27 0.2
0.19 (5.4)
0.19 1.2
0.21 1.5
0.24 1.3
8.80 1,891.9
na (400.5)
6.02 3,480.6
5.62 455.1
5.65 386.5
Nomura
87
14 June 2010
From Reduce
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
jim.wong@nomura.com shirley.lam@nomura.com
NEUTRAL
Action
Compared to its peers, China Southern Airlines (CSA) has felt the greatest impact of the slow pace of renminbi appreciation and is likely to benefit least from recent government policies. Possible competition from railways and Air Chinas aggressive expansion into CSAs southern hub are likely to cap earnings growth beyond 2010. Given the share price has consolidated below our PT, we upgrade to NEUTRAL.
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY10F net profit (RMBmn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
HK$3.23
HK$3.61
(from HK$3.78)
Catalysts
We believe that the share price may resume momentum should renminbi appreciation expectations return. Anchor themes We see reforms as net positive. Reforms are expected on shareholding structure, airport charges, domestic route operating rights, airport infrastructure levy, jet fuel price, customs tax on aircraft purchases and ticket pricing.
Nomura vs consensus
We are below consensus mainly on our lower RMB appreciation rate assumptions. We factor in a 2.6% rise in 2010F compared to market consensus of 3-5%.
FY08
55,288 (4,823) (5,003) (0.76) (416.0) na na 2.6 0.0 (51.1) 710.7
Absolute (HK$) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (HK$) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) China Southern Air Holding Company
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
Nomura
88
14 June 2010
Shirley Lam
Drilling down
Greatest impact from RMB; benefits least from recent positive policies
Nomuras economics team recently revised down expectations for renminbi appreciation against the US dollar in 2010 and 2011 from the former expectation of a 5.5% gain in 2010 and 5.4% in 2011, to the current forecast of a 2.6% appreciation in 2010 and a gain of 5.3% in 2011.
6.83 6.83
5.50 2.60
As a result of this forecast change, we revise down our anticipated FX gains for CSA substantially. Nevertheless, we expect the decline in FX gains to be partly mitigated by improvement in traffic revenues following the introduction of the two positive policy measures, and will be fully mitigated in FY11F earnings According to the announcement made by the Ministry of Finance on 5 May 2010, the Notice Concerning Exemption of Business Tax on the Provision of International Transport Services (Cai Shui [2010] No. 8) was jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation (the Notice). Pursuant to the Notice, it is provided that since 1 January 2010, entities or individuals within the Peoples Republic of China providing international transport services shall be exempt from business tax. Recall, prior to the announcement, all Chinese airlines were subject to business tax of approximately 3% for all traffic revenues (including domestic, regional and international routes). As the exemption from business tax applies to international routes and regional routes traffic revenues, CSA is likely to see the least benefit since it has the lowest exposure among its peers to such routes. CSA announced on 7 May 2010 that the company would benefit from a reduction of business tax and additional expenses of approximately RMB113mn in 2009 should the policy take effect in 2009. We estimate CSA can save tax of RMB262mn in 2010, and this compares to Air Chinas possible tax saving of RMB742mn, and CEAs RMB566mn, according to our estimates. Furthermore, on 22 May 2010, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that Chinese airlines will be able to set their own premium-class fares on domestic routes effective 1 June 2010. Currently, first-class fares are set at 150% of the economy class fare, and business class fares are set at 130% of the economy class fare. While we have checked with management of CSA, the company told us it has yet to decide whether it will change the fares. Nevertheless, we note that revenue from premium class accounts for only 5-6% of total domestic revenue for CSA; hence the impact of a substantial increase in premium-class fares would not have much impact on CSAs bottom line. Assuming a 20% increase (lower than Air Chinas average 24% hike) on premium-class fares, we estimate CSA would likely generate additional revenue of RMB259mn (or net profit of RMB205mn) in 2010.
The negative impact from the slide in renminbi appreciation rate will be mitigated by revenue rise
Nomura
89
14 June 2010
Shirley Lam
After incorporating the aforesaid changes, we revise down 2010F reported net profit by 29.3%, but revised up our 2011 net profit forecast by 28.9%.
We cut our FY10F net profit, but increase FY11F net profit
1Q10 16,877 (451) (14,163) 2,263 (1,148) (451) (300) 364 1,106 13 221 (3) 1,701 (216) (66) 1,419 300
1Q09 12,932 (358) (11,548) 1,026 (976) (416) (408) (774) 8 74 1,072 (2) 378 (60) (96) 222 (868)
Chg (%) 31 26 23 121 18 8 (26) na 13,725 (82) (79) 50 350 260 (31) 539 (135)
Management believes 2Q-3Q will be even better, especially with the help of the Shanghai World Expo, which will last from 1 May to 30 October 2010. Traffic may continue to outperform demand. We have already modelled in overall RPK growth of 16.5% and an increase of 2.3ppt on passenger load factor to 77.6% in FY2010F.
Nomura
90
14 June 2010
Shirley Lam
Note: CEA consolidated with Shanghai Airlines starting from January 2010. Source: Company data, Nomura research
Management also indicated that both net passenger yields and cargo yields have registered double-digit growth y-y in 1Q10, and management expects that yields in 2010 may not be too bad. We therefore revise up international routes net passenger yield to a 10% rise from previously flat.
Exhibit 158. China air ticket price trend (excluding fuel surcharge)
Index Domestic 1/2009 2/2009 3/2009 4/2009 5/2009 6/2009 7/2009 8/2009 9/2009 10/2009 11/2009 12/2009 1/2010 2/2010 3/2010 4/2010 96.700 88.200 94.700 101.000 78.700 89.200 110.900 108.400 101.500 98.700 98.100 92.100 99.100 99.700 103.200 112.300 Regional 101.900 86.500 88.800 89.200 88.200 86.200 84.600 85.500 99.800 89.700 96.900 97.100 101.700 103.900 101.600 104.400 International 115.400 102.600 99.500 111.100 106.500 107.700 113.100 131.600 140.300 133.800 127.200 128.500 125.200 129.200 127.000 154.600 Domestic (4.3) (12.8) 2.6 3.2 (12.3) 10.8 15.9 28.0 9.6 2.5 21.0 17.3 2.5 13.0 9.0 11.2 y-y chg % Regional (6.1) (19.9) (15.4) (13.6) (13.4) (15.7) (21.2) (13.4) (9.4) (10.7) (3.5) (3.0) (0.2) 20.1 14.4 17.0 International (4.5) (17.1) (18.1) (10.9) (17.1) (13.8) (11.4) 2.0 4.9 9.4 9.3 18.0 8.5 25.9 27.6 39.2
Nevertheless, we are cautious on 4Q10 (which is traditionally the weak quarter); we expect that the strong traffic growth could slowdown in the second half when the base gets harder.
Nomura
91
14 June 2010
Shirley Lam
Core earnings are expected to remain as net losses in FY10F and FY11F
Exhibit 160. Sensitivity analysis for every US$1/bbl crude oil price hike
EPS (%) Air China CSA CEA
Source: Nomura estimates
Valuation methodology
We upgrade our rating on CSA to NEUTRAL from Reduce with a revised price target of HK$3.61 (from HK$3.78) based on 1.2x 2011F P/BV (mid-cycle valuation).
Price target at HK$3.61
Nomura
92
14 June 2010
Shirley Lam
Financial statements
Income statement (RMBmn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Norm alised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (% ) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (% ) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FD EPS Per share Reported EPS (RMB) Norm EPS (RMB) Fully diluted norm EPS (RMB) Book value per share (RMB) DPS (RMB)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 54,401 (47,439) 6,962 (5,517) 1,445 6,999 (5,554) 1,445 (2,218) 180 3,228 2,635 (858) 1,777 (194) 1,583 114 1,697 1,697
FY08 55,288 (54,094) 1,194 (7,673) (6,479) (733) (5,746) (6,479) (1,884) 158 3,301 (4,904) (62) (4,966) (37) (5,003) 180 (4,823) (4,823)
FY09 54,802 (48,882) 5,920 (6,469) (549) 5,422 (5,971) (549) (1,429) 283 2,127 432 95 527 (197) 330 330 330
FY10F 67,783 (59,281) 8,502 (7,377) 1,125 7,846 (6,721) 1,125 (1,553) 148 1,423 1,144 (495) 649 18 666 1,106 1,772 1,772
FY11F 76,934 (67,728) 9,206 (8,201) 1,005 8,476 (7,471) 1,005 (2,040) 159 3,163 2,287 (503) 1,784 18 1,802 1,802 1,802
13.0 14.5 12.1 3.0 1.7 10.1 44.7 12.8 12.9 2.7 3.1 32.6 10.0 1.0 15.4 2.1
na na na 16.6 2.6 na na 2.2 (1.3) (11.7) (8.7) na na 15.1 1.5 (51.1) (8.1)
60.1 67.2 60.1 2.2 2.2 13.4 na 10.8 9.9 (1.0) 0.6 (22.0) 27.3 2.5 3.8 (0.3)
37.9 42.3 14.2 4.7 1.2 9.2 57.6 12.5 11.6 1.7 2.6 43.3 22.2 2.2 10.7 1.3
15.0 16.8 15.0 4.7 1.1 9.4 69.6 12.0 11.0 1.3 2.3 22.0 19.5 2.0 7.6 1.1
(0.9) na na na na
Nomura
93
14 June 2010
Shirley Lam
Cashflow (RMBmn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 6,999 2,391 (2,521) 6,869 (5,423) 1,446 18 (68) (431) 778 282 2,025 (8) (697) 240 (465) 1,560 2,264 3,824 45,933
FY08 (733) 1,109 779 1,155 (8,361) (7,206) (238) (29) 343 386 109 (6,635) (28) 7,332 156 7,460 825 3,824 4,649 49,896
FY09 5,422 3,399 138 8,959 (14,958) (5,999) (180) (12) (423) 189 906 (5,519) (10) 2,980 2,000 243 5,213 (306) 4,649 4,343 54,302
FY10F 7,846 (507) (2,023) 5,316 (15,017) (9,701) (92) (17) 79 1,638 (8,093) 10,750 (3,002) 7,748 (345) 4,343 3,998 50,322
FY11F 8,476 (200) (2,572) 5,703 (15,017) (9,314) (103) (17) 81 39 (9,314) 6,879 6,879 (2,435) 3,998 1,563 57,909
Balance sheet (RMBmn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 3,824 2 1,966 1,213 1,785 8,790 1,260 69,826 2,130 82,006 27,825 1,844 13,042 42,711 21,932 3,053 67,696 2,447 6,561 1,514 3,788 11,863 82,006
FY08 4,649 51 1,317 1,229 2,002 9,248 1,449 70,558 1,787 83,042 25,959 1,353 14,226 41,538 28,586 3,439 73,563 2,458 6,561 (3,309) 3,769 7,021 83,042
FY09 4,343 529 1,359 1,256 2,170 9,657 1,151 81,732 2,210 94,750 18,883 4,992 14,223 38,098 39,762 3,628 81,488 2,911 8,003 (2,979) 5,327 10,351 94,750
FY10F 3,998 529 1,681 1,513 2,672 10,393 1,243 89,720 0 0 2,227 103,583 18,661 5,142 14,647 38,450 35,659 0 3,707 77,816 2,893 0 10,082 (1,207) 13,998 22,873 103,582
FY11F 1,563 529 1,908 1,723 3,026 8,749 1,346 98,852 0 0 2,244 111,191 14,571 5,296 15,084 34,951 44,901 0 3,788 83,640 2,875 0 10,082 595 13,998 24,675 111,191
0.21 0.7
0.22 (3.4)
0.25 (0.4)
0.27 0.7
0.25 0.5
6.56 387.2
na 710.7
10.02 524.6
6.41 220.0
6.83 234.7
Nomura
94
14 June 2010
Maintained
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
jim.wong@nomura.com shirley.lam@nomura.com
BUY
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY10F net profit (HK$mn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
Action
We raise our profit estimates for Cathay Pacific by 62% in 2010 and 3% in 2011 on its recently announced HACTL and HAECO stake disposals. With air passenger yield and volume trends likely to remain strong into 2010, we believe there may be upside to even our revised estimates. As the group still trades below its historical mid-cycle P/B level of 1.6x, we reiterate our BUY rating.
HK$15.68
HK$18.18
(s et on 17 Mar 10)
Catalysts
Confirmation of a sustained improvement in passenger mix and revenue should be a positive catalyst for price upside. Anchor themes With Asian economies (led by China) expected to recover at a much faster pace than the US and Europe, airlines with hubs in Asia are expected to see an earlier recovery than their global peers.
Nomura vs consensus
Our earnings estimates are significantly above market as we have incorporated gains from recent disposals. Ex-disposals, we are likely still above market on higher yields.
FY08
86,578 (8,568) (8,100) (2.06) (215.3) na na 1.6 0.2 (19.3) 67.2
Absolute (HK$) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (HK$) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Swire Pacific Air China
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
Nomura
95
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Drilling down
(12,618) (13,373) (17,349) (6,567) (9,081) (571) (2,940) (62,499) 4,479 1,254 (847) 261 5,147 (283) (170) 4,694 1.193 0.100
(12,428) (14,159) (47,317) (7,643) (8,271) (851) (3,455) (94,124) (7,561) (468) (1,012) (764) (9,805) 1,333 (224) (8,696) (2.210) 0.030
1.5 (5.6) (63.3) (14.1) 9.8 (32.9) (14.9) (33.6) n.a. n.a. (16.3) n.a. n.a. n.a. (24.1) n.a. n.a. 233.3
Nomura
96
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
CX also declared a final DPS of HK$0.10 for 2009, up from HK$0.03 in 2008 and again above our estimate of HK$0.03. In our view, the significant up-tick in DPS signals that CX management believes its balance sheet is no longer a concern. The net debt-to-equity ratio for CX was 64% in 2009, down slightly from 67% in 2008. Among routes, Southeast Asia and the Middle East saw the strongest demand (up 8.6% y-y in revenue passenger km terms) in 2009, while North America saw the weakest demand (down 14.1% y-y). Although demand for North America routes did not pick up even in 2H09, demand seems to have improved subsequently as CX has reinstated services on its Los Angeles and Toronto routes since March 2010.
SE Asia and Middle East routes saw the strongest volumes
2008 13,621 16,894 17,540 17,437 25,503 90,995 8,847 24,410 115,478 13,425 78.8 65.9
Chg (%) 6.5 2.1 (3.9) 8.6 (14.1) (1.7) (13.1) (8.9) (3.7) (13.1) 1.7pts 0.0pts
14,511 17,249 16,854 18,944 21,902 89,460 7,688 22,249 111,167 11,666 80.5 65.9
CX has also been adding capacity to Seoul, Hanoi, Nanjing, Chengdu, Changsha, Chongqing, Phnom Penh, Fuzhou, and new services to Milan and Moscow since the beginning of this year. Overall capacity growth in 2010 is still expected to be in the single digits. While CXs strong 2009 earnings included oil hedging gains and disposal gains on HAECO, more fundamental gains from cost savings (unpaid leave scheme and shorter flight routes) and recovery in premium air traffic demand (since September 2009) underpinned core earnings. For example, shorter flight paths over the Pearl River Delta into Hong Kong were introduced effective 22 October 2009 by the Hong Kong Civil Aviation Department (HKCAD).
Recovery in premium air passenger traffic and cost savings main reasons for stronger earnings
Nomura
97
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Stripping out gains of HK$1,254mn from the HAECO disposal and oil hedging gains of HK$2,758mn, as well as miscellaneous exceptionals, CXs core earnings in 2009 still recovered to HK$852mn from core losses of HK$1,734mn in 2008. The recovery in CXs core earnings was even more obvious on a half-yearly basis. CXs core earnings recovered to HK$1,446mn in 2H09 from a loss of HK$594mn in 1H09 and core losses of HK$861mn and HK$873mn in 2H08 and 1H08.
HK$1,446mn core profit largely from just 4Q09
With premium air passenger traffic and air cargo traffic recoveries continuing (forward bookings continue to show strength even into 2H10), 2010 earnings prospects look good for CX.
Nomura
98
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Cargo yield trend ex-fuel surcharge (HK$) 1.720 1.796 1.750 1.750 1.690 1.690 1.630 1.648 1.600 1.620 1.200 1.476
0.457 0.459 0.472 0.455 0.458 0.481 0.537 0.562 0.559 0.559 0.450 0.485
Passenger yield numbers for Taiwanese airlines such as EVA Air, shown in the exhibit below, reaffirm CX and Singapore Airlines statements that passenger yields have continued to move up into 2Q10.
Exhibit 167. EVA Airways (2618 TT): passenger and cargo yield a) Passenger yield trend
(NT$/km) 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Eva Airlines (2618 TT)
As for volumes, CX has continued to achieve record passenger load factors of over 80% with its April 2010 passenger load factor of 83.9% being the highest among regional airlines that have announced such numbers. CXs passenger volumes, as measured by revenue passenger kms, also continued its recovery trend, up 6.6% y-y in March 2010 (April 2010 was biased by the volcanic ash cloud disruption). Given CXs high load factors, it has now moved on to trying to further raise yields rather than focusing on pure volumes alone.
Nomura
99
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
* Biased by volcanic ash cloud disruption. Source: Company data, Nomura research
Nomura
100
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
101
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
CX is investing HK$5.5bn in its new air cargo terminal in Hong Kong. Phase 1 of the terminal is expected to be operational by 2013 with a capacity of 2.6mn tonnes of cargo. CX had carried 1.53mn tonnes of cargo in 2009 and HACTL had handled 2.3mn tonnes of cargo over the same period. With CX processing full ownership of its new air cargo terminal, there was no reason to hold on to its minority stake in HACTL. CX announced the sale of its remaining 15% stake in HAECO (44 HK, not rated) on 7 June 2010. This was also not unexpected given that CX had already sold a 12.45% stake in 2H09. The price tag of the most recent disposal (at HK$105 per HAECO share) is in fact a premium of over 14% on the price transacted in 2H09 (at HK$91.83 per HAECO share). As a result of the sale, CX will generate HK$2,620mn in proceeds (which should further reduce any residual concerns over the need for fund raising at CX) and should be able to book disposal gains of HK$1,829mn in 2010.
Nomura
102
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Over the past few years, CX has eliminated home-turf competition and expanded back into China at one stroke via the acquisition of Dragonair. Recently, CX also restructured its shareholding, with Air China increasing its holding in CX to 30.0% and Swire Pacific cutting its stake to 42.0%.
Given the improved competitive environment post-1997 and a more politically correct shareholding structure, we would argue that CXs valuation multiples are now closer to those of pre-1997 levels rather then that just post-1997 highs. In fact, while unlikely in the short-term, we would not entirely rule out that in the long run Swire Pacific could sell down its stake in CX to willing buyers such as Air China.
Nomura
103
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Financial statements
Income statement (HK$mn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Norm alised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (% ) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (% ) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FD EPS Per share Reported EPS (HK$) Norm EPS (HK$) Fully diluted norm EPS (HK$) Book value per share (HK$) DPS (HK$)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 75,358 (67,619) 7,739 7,739 12,850 (5,111) 7,739 (787) 1,057 8,009 (799) 7,210 (187) 7,023 7,023 (3,310) 3,713
FY08 86,578 (94,049) (7,471) (7,471) (1,518) (5,953) (7,471) (1,012) (730) (9,213) 1,337 (7,876) (224) (8,100) (468) (8,568) (118) (8,686)
FY09 66,978 (62,499) 4,479 4,479 10,880 (6,401) 4,479 (847) 261 3,893 (283) 3,610 (170) 3,440 1,254 4,694 (393) 4,301
FY10F 83,273 (79,179) 4,094 4,094 12,011 (7,917) 4,094 (1,321) 1,565 4,338 (376) 3,961 (172) 3,790 2,509 6,299 (2,375) 3,924
FY11F 92,219 (87,419) 4,800 4,800 12,965 (8,165) 4,800 (1,220) 2,080 5,659 (311) 5,348 (173) 5,174 5,174 (1,951) 3,223
8.8 10.2 8.8 5.4 4.7 1.2 5.5 8.7 10.3 17.1 10.3 9.3 10.0 47.1 13.0 1.9 14.6 9.6
na na na 0.2 39.8 1.6 na na (8.6) (1.8) (8.6) (9.9) na na 10.7 1.6 (19.3) (8.4)
17.9 20.8 13.1 0.6 32.6 1.5 8.0 18.7 6.7 16.2 6.7 7.0 7.3 8.4 10.1 1.1 11.7 4.8
16.3 18.9 9.8 3.8 13.1 1.4 6.4 15.4 4.9 14.4 4.9 7.6 8.7 37.7 4.9 0.5 14.4 5.8
11.9 13.8 11.9 3.2 5.8 1.3 5.6 12.3 5.2 14.1 5.2 5.6 5.5 37.7 7.8 0.9 11.2 7.0
(22.6) na na na na
Nomura
104
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Cashflow (HK$mn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 12,850 2,173 (2,016) 13,007 (9,801) 3,206 (2,107) 171 1,801 3,071 (2,245) 3,396 1,803 2,954 6,025 15,624 21,649 14,999
FY08 (1,518) 6,277 (3,211) 1,548 (9,228) (7,680) 432 (1,794) 990 (8,052) (2,438) 2,746 1,183 1,491 (6,561) 21,649 15,088 25,736
FY09 10,880 (4,659) (4,329) 1,892 (6,776) (4,884) (2,288) 278 5,313 (1,581) 1,690 1,325 3,015 1,434 15,088 16,522 27,190
FY10F 12,011 (9,898) 2,585 4,699 (4,064) 634 (3) 6,250 (5,148) 1,733 (1,100) 2,101 1,150 2,152 3,885 16,522 20,407 25,665
FY11F 12,965 (3,005) 726 10,686 (7,224) 3,462 (3) (141) 141 3,458 (2,249) (1,393) 150 (3,492) (33) 20,406 20,373 23,151
Balance sheet (HK$mn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 21,649 11,313 882 63 33,907 62,388 10,054 11,301 117,650 3,890 14,432 9,072 27,394 32,758 6,771 66,923 178 788 30,527 2,244 16,990 50,549 117,650
FY08 15,088 12,000 960 10 28,058 66,039 9,773 10,869 114,739 4,518 22,277 8,216 35,011 36,306 4,977 76,294 120 787 18,116 2,443 16,979 38,325 114,739
FY09 16,522 8,148 947 13 25,630 65,495 9,042 13,157 113,324 7,839 12,686 9,286 29,811 35,873 5,255 70,939 147 787 24,483 16,968 42,238 113,324
FY10F 20,406 12,491 1,083 10 33,990 63,200 9,135 13,160 119,485 8,184 8,880 7,669 24,733 37,888 11,505 74,126 308 787 26,207 1,100 16,957 45,051 119,485
FY11F 20,373 13,833 1,199 10 35,415 58,147 10,750 13,163 117,475 8,755 6,660 8,342 23,758 34,769 11,364 69,891 470 787 27,133 2,249 16,946 47,114 117,475
1.24 9.8
0.80 (7.4)
0.86 5.3
1.37 3.1
1.49 3.9
1.17 29.7
na 67.2
2.50 64.4
2.14 57.0
1.79 49.1
Nomura
105
14 June 2010
Initiating
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
jim.wong@nomura.com shirley.lam@nomura.com
BUY
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY10F net profit (NT$mn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
Action
After suffering substantial losses from oil hedging contracts, a traffic slump amid the financial crisis in 2008-09 and recent share placements, we believe the worst is over and expect an economic turnaround in 2010F. Possible further increases in daily direct flights and continual improvements in traffic bode well for EVAs prospects. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a price target of NT$21.50.
NT$17.95
NT$21.50
19.8% 14.7% 3,332 3.9%
Catalysts
Further increases in daily scheduled flights, liberalisation of mainland tourist quotas and concrete signs of improvement in the macro outlook are near-term catalysts. Anchor themes With the Asian economies (led by China) expected to recover at a much faster pace than the US and Europe, we expect airlines with hubs in Asia to see an earlier recovery than their global peers.
Nomura vs consensus
Our valuation is higher than market consensus, as we expect benefits from direct air links will be sustainable and will continue to grow.
FY08
90,656 (16,890) (17,060) (7.54) na na na 1.6 0.0 (48.3) 285.5
200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Feb10 Apr10 1m 11.5 8.9 17.0 3m 37.5 35.3 44.4
Dec09
Oct09
Valuation
Our price target of NT$21.50 is based on 1.5x FY10F P/BV (mid-cycle valuation). Risks: 1) if passenger and cargo throughput growth, passenger and cargo yield growth, oil prices and/or exchange rates differ substantially from our estimates.
Absolute (NT$) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (NT$) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Evergreen Marine Evergreen International
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
This is a summary of our full initiation report on EVA Airways, published on 14 June, 2010.
Nomura
106
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Drilling down
RPK (LHS)
RFTK (RHS)
Nomura
107
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
108
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
109
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Financial statements
Income statement (NT$mn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Norm alised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (% ) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (% ) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FD EPS Per share Reported EPS (NT$) Norm EPS (NT$) Fully diluted norm EPS (NT$) Book value per share (NT$) DPS (NT$)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 93,103 (95,378) (2,274) (2,274) 5,364 (7,639) (2,274) (2,026) 342 1,930 (2,027) 86 (1,941) (1,941) 69 (1,872) (1,872)
FY08 90,656 (99,262) (8,607) (8,607) (774) (7,833) (8,607) (2,601) 192 (6,545) (17,561) 501 (17,060) (17,060) 170 (16,890) (16,890)
FY09 73,280 (76,100) (2,820) (2,820) 5,551 (8,371) (2,820) (1,942) 278 701 (3,783) 881 (2,902) (2,902) 58 (2,844) (2,844)
FY10F 97,773 (93,583) 4,190 4,190 12,728 (8,538) 4,190 (1,720) 531 329 3,330 2 3,332 3,332 3,332 3,332
FY11F 109,185 (104,494) 4,691 4,691 13,395 (8,704) 4,691 (1,604) 696 788 4,571 (40) 4,532 4,532 4,532 4,532
na na na 5.4 0.9 21.6 na (2.4) 5.8 (2.4) (2.0) na na 27.2 3.3 (4.1) (1.4)
na na na na 1.7 23.9 na (3.8) 7.6 (3.8) (3.9) na na 19.3 1.7 (9.8) (1.8)
17.4 20.9 17.4 4.8 1.4 9.2 25.9 4.3 13.0 4.3 3.4 (0.1) 2.6 0.3 8.7 3.3
13.9 16.7 13.9 4.2 1.2 7.9 20.6 4.3 12.3 4.3 4.2 0.9 2.3 0.3 9.6 3.8
(0.9) 74.7 na na na
(2.6) (114.4) na na na
(19.2) na na na na
33.4 129.3 na na na
Nomura
110
14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Cashflow (NT$m n) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 5,364 1,692 309 7,366 (25,312) (17,947) 2,399 (89) 27 (2,629) 17,652 (587) 5,308 (4,762) 546 (41) 2,997 2,957 65,062
FY08 (774) 6,360 (8,261) (2,675) (16,123) (18,798) 4,362 (429) 27 437 7,402 (6,999) 10,997 (3,727) 7,270 271 2,957 3,228 73,496
FY09 5,551 (5,047) (1,093) (590) (14,167) (14,757) (3,959) (254) (156) (3,424) 6,425 (16,125) 7,420 11,530 (1,835) 17,115 991 3,228 4,219 81,410
FY10F 12,728 (1,317) 606 12,016 (2,500) 9,516 (459) (450) 76 383 9,066 8,800 (20,563) (11,763) (2,697) 4,219 1,522 63,981
FY11F 13,395 (1,200) 2,856 15,051 (2,500) 12,551 (831) (696) 79 617 11,720 (7,769) (7,769) 3,951 1,522 5,472 52,711
Balance sheet (NT$mn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY07 2,957 5,179 8,404 9,528 1,632 27,700 10,944 94,867 15,518 109 149,138 9,353 2,580 19,553 31,486 58,666 14,798 104,950 21,950 (841) 23,080 44,188 149,138
FY08 3,228 1,560 5,969 8,631 2,026 21,413 10,201 97,874 13,685 82 143,255 15,674 1,667 23,887 41,229 61,050 15,235 117,513 22,627 (16,890) 20,005 25,742 143,255
FY09 4,219 4,509 6,968 8,690 1,202 25,588 11,211 102,607 10,565 238 150,209 16,991 2,247 18,496 37,733 68,638 11,811 118,182 29,627 (2,915) 5,315 32,027 150,209
FY10F 1,522 4,509 9,243 10,687 1,355 27,316 11,670 96,200 10,043 238 145,467 16,447 2,547 21,302 40,297 49,055 11,887 101,239 35,127 417 8,684 44,228 145,467
FY11F 5,472 4,644 10,303 11,933 1,476 33,828 12,366 89,708 9,536 238 145,677 16,897 2,748 22,328 41,974 41,286 11,966 95,226 35,127 4,948 10,376 50,451 145,676
0.88 (1.1)
0.52 (3.3)
0.68 (1.5)
0.68 2.4
0.81 2.9
12.13 147.2
na 285.5
14.67 254.2
5.03 144.7
3.94 104.5
Nomura
111
14 June 2010
Maintained
NOMURA FINANCIAL INVESTMENT (KOREA) CO LTD
Justin Lee
justin.lee@nomura.com
NEUTRAL
Action
We believe Korean Airs fundamental recovery is well on its way and expect it to post an all-time high revenue and operating profit in 2010. However, with high sensitivity to the W/US$ exchange rate and higher oil prices, Korean Airs earnings could deteriorate longer term. The company seems fairly valued at the current level. We prefer SIA and CX, given their strong earnings track record. NEUTRAL.
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY11F net profit (Wbn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
W71,300
W79,000
(set on 31 May 10)
Catalysts
Continued strong y-y improvements in monthly operating statistics could be a positive catalyst for the companys share price. Anchor themes With Asian economies (led by China) expected to recover at a much faster pace than the US and Europe, airlines with hubs in Asia are expected to see a stronger recovery than their global peers.
Nomura vs consensus
We believe our oil price assumptions are higher than the Street and the market has yet to reflect the impact of recent won depreciation against the US dollar.
Recovery priced in
Continued traffic recovery
We see continuing growth in Korea outbound passenger traffic (+30% YTD) and expect the trend to continue with the peak season approaching. As yields from Korea outbound passengers are highest for Korean Air Lines (KAL), we believe this trend will reflect positively on KALs operating profit.
180 160 140 120 100 80 May10 6m 32.3 24.0 30.3 4,169 74.0 77,000/34,100 35.88 Hard 11.0 9.9 3m 17.5 8.8 15.4 Feb10 Mar10 1m 7.4 0.4 7.3
Oct09
Nov09
Absolute (W) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (W) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Chairman Cho Hanjin Transporation
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
Nomura
112
Dec09
14 June 2010
Jan10
Apr10
Justin Lee
Drilling down
As we expect a stronger rebound from Korea outbound passenger traffic (+20% y-y), which has the highest yield, we estimate KALs international passenger yield in 2010F will grow by 12% y-y. Also, an increasing share of inbound and transit traffic would boost the overall load factor for the passenger business to 76.7% in 2010F, in our view. According to IIA data, total departures on US routes increased by 23% y-y in May. Given that KAL offers the most routes to US destinations among Asian airlines, we believe the company should benefit from increased demand for US routes. According to Hana Tour (039130 KS, Not rated), Koreas largest tour agency, the companys advance booking rates for June and July rose 116% and 160% y-y, respectively. Given KALs 39% market share in the international passenger business in Korea (as of 2009), we expect the company to post strong passenger revenue in 2Q10F and 3Q10F.
Nomura
113
14 June 2010
Justin Lee
KALs international passenger revenue per kilometre (RPK) has rebounded starting from 3Q09. May marked the tenth consecutive month of positive y-y growth for passengers carried (nine consecutive months of y-y growth for cargo). We expect KALs international RPK to improve 10% y-y in 2010F. KALs cargo throughput rebounded steadily from 3Q09. The company indicated that the cargo business turned to profit from October 2009. We expect the companys freight tonne kilometre (FTK) to rise 18% y-y in 2010F. With growth in exports likely, we expect cargo demand to remain solid, which would enable KAL to maintain a high yield and load factor for the cargo business. We expect the overall cargo yield to improve by 6% y-y, with the load factor improving to 78.7%.
Nomura
114
14 June 2010
Justin Lee
2007 8,812 585 4,632 2,533 1,062 637 7.2 2,606 5,596 94 13
2008 10,213 602 5,352 3,027 1,232 (99) (1.0) 4,195 6,143 (2,451) (1,942)
2009 9,394 490 4,973 2,705 1,226 133 1.4 2,939 6,322 (125) (99)
2010F 11,293 509 6,127 3,383 1,274 794 7.0 3,778 6,720 553 431
2011F 11,881 519 6,563 3,485 1,314 647 5.4 4,134 7,100 528 412
2011F 5.2 2.0 7.1 3.0 3.2 (18.4) 9.4 5.6 (4.4) (4.4)
Nomura
115
14 June 2010
Justin Lee
In 1Q10, KAL realised a net FX-related gain of W128bn (vs net FX-related loss of W567bn in 1Q09) as the won strengthened significantly against the US dollar (W1,131:US$1 in 1Q10 vs W1,377:US$1 in 1Q09). In FY10F, we expect the company to record net FX-related gain of W411bn. As indicated in the exhibit below, KALs share price has exhibited a high negative correlation with the W/US$ rate. A slowing rate of won appreciation would suggest limited upside for KALs share price, in our view.
Nomura forecasts that the price of oil will rise to US$85/bbl in 2010F and US$95/bbl in 2011F, and we expect fuel costs to account for 36%/37% of total expenses in FY10F/FY11F (vs 32% in FY09). If oil prices rise above our forecast, the companys operating margin would deteriorate further.
Nomura
116
14 June 2010
Justin Lee
Valuation
Note: 2010F and 2011F operating profits are estimates Source: Bloomberg, company data, Nomura estimates
Nomura
117
14 June 2010
Justin Lee
Financial statements
Income statement (Wbn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (%) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FDEPS Per share Reported EPS (W) Norm EPS (W) Fully diluted norm EPS (W) Book value per share (W) DPS (W)
Source: No mura estimates
FY08 10,213 (8,821) 1,391 (1,491) (99) 659 (758) (99) (440) (6) (1,906) (2,451) 508 (1,942)
FY09 9,394 (7,980) 1,414 (1,280) 133 919 (786) 133 (515) (142) 399 (125) 26 (99)
FY10F 11,293 (9,180) 2,113 (1,319) 794 1,642 (848) 794 (566) 26 299 553 (122) 431
FY11F 11,881 (9,876) 2,006 (1,358) 647 1,619 (972) 647 (598) 15 463 528 (116) 412
FY12F 12,505 (10,575) 1,930 (1,399) 531 1,634 (1,103) 531 (620) 13 459 383 (84) 299
na na na na 1.8 20.0 na 13.6 6.5 (1.0) (19.0) na na 5.6 0.8 (53.8) (0.7)
na na na 10.5 1.7 17.3 (1,512.0) 15.0 9.8 1.4 (1.1) na na 17.4 2.1 (3.4) (0.1)
11.9 13.2 11.9 0.7 5.3 1.5 8.4 17.0 18.7 14.5 7.0 3.8 22.0 8.3 8.9 1.2 13.2 4.9
12.5 13.8 12.5 0.8 3.7 1.4 8.9 21.9 16.9 13.6 5.4 3.5 22.0 10.5 9.6 1.2 11.6 3.8
17.2 19.0 17.2 0.8 4.2 1.3 9.0 27.3 15.4 13.1 4.2 2.4 22.0 14.5 11.2 1.3 8.0 3.0
(8.0) 39.5 na na na
Nomura
118
14 June 2010
Justin Lee
Cashflow (Wbn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: No mura estimates
FY08 659 195 (972) (118) (570) (689) 155 (486) (47) (1,484) (2,551) 2,357
FY09 919 4 (433) 490 (1,637) (1,147) 22 (75) (68) 399 (869) 1,090
FY10F 1,642 (359) (317) 965 (1,005) (40) 532 (8) (1,099) (614) (36) 722
FY11F 1,619 82 (313) 1,389 (1,142) 247 200 300 (173) (1,232) (658) (43) 740
FY12F 1,634 137 (557) 1,215 (1,401) (186) (53) (225) (464) (43) 549
Balance sheet (Wbn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: No mura estimates
FY08 494 675 251 555 1,976 1,590 11,285 216 801 15,868 788 96 3,404 4,289 7,654 1,102 13,044
FY09 716 870 320 590 2,496 1,568 11,682 297 876 16,919 812 158 3,645 4,615 8,213 1,034 13,862
FY10F 788 1,046 385 540 2,758 1,036 12,734 306 876 17,710 903 190 3,445 4,538 8,694 1,026 14,258
FY11F 827 1,101 405 490 2,822 836 13,857 315 576 18,406 978 200 3,542 4,720 9,212 854 14,786
FY12F 868 1,158 426 440 2,893 836 14,539 324 576 19,168 987 211 3,698 4,895 9,596 801 15,292
0.46 (0.2)
0.54 0.3
0.61 1.4
0.60 1.1
0.59 0.9
12.06 281.5
9.04 271.8
5.37 255.2
5.78 258.6
5.94 250.6
Nomura
119
14 June 2010
Maintained
NOMURA SECURITIES MALAYSIA SDN BHD
jacinda.loh@nomura.com waikee.choong@nomura.com
BUY
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY11F net profit (RMmn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
Action
We see MASs turnaround story gaining traction with cost savings continuing to improve FY10F earnings, with a leg up in FY11F as the bulk of its new fleet arrives to drive its yield improvement strategy further. While headwinds remain in the form of competition and a potentially costly hedge, we premise our BUY call on the scope for upside coming from a low base with an added boost from its new fleet.
RM1.97
RM2.40
(set on 31 May 10)
Catalysts
Catalysts for the stock are a better-than-expected rebound in passenger numbers and yield improvements occurring earlier. Anchor themes Asia-Pacific airlines have rebounded faster than expected on growing penetration in the worlds largest aviation market. We see competitive headwinds in FY10F for Malaysian airlines and prefer players with robust balance sheets and turnaround potential.
Nomura vs consensus
Consensus is generally negative; our earnings forecasts are higher as we expect the cost-driven turnaround to gather momentum with fleet renewal to give yields a leg up.
MAS fly
Gathering momentum with 5-7% cost savings to come
Since its operational restructuring implemented in 2006, MAS management has committed itself to driving cost reductions. We see MASs gradual shift from an asset-light balance sheet to a minimum 33%-owned fleet bringing down leasing costs by up to 30% by FY12F. In our view, this cost-driven turnaround will gather momentum in FY10-12F as its fleet renewal increases fuel efficiencies, resulting in an overall fall in cost/ASK by 5-7%.
110 100 90 80 70 60 50
1m Absolute (RM) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$m n) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (RM) 3-m th avg daily turnover (U S$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Khazanah N asional Em ployees Provident Fund
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
6m (19.8) (17.9) (20.7) 1,983 14.0 2.67/1.80 1.87 Hard 69.0 13.0
Nomura
120
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 191. MASs cost turnaround fleet renewal to drive growth for first time in years
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2011F
2012F
MAS operational restructuring officially under way Idris Jala, appointed as CEO in December 2005, says MAS was running out of cash in 4 months. He says MAS will not expand until it gets its house in order Reduced domestic routes by 99; reduced international by 24 routes. Cut workforce by 16%
MAS cuts routes, slows fleet growth Reviews revenue enhancement, minimises overbooking, pushes sales online. Eliminates costly procurement - eg the RM100 nasi lemak Freezes recruitment, cuts budget by 7%, works on more code share deals
Fleet renewal to provide leg up for cost turnaround MAS's fleet renewal to drive cost turnaround. Increasing frequencies, introducing new routes
Savings of RM665mn
Savings of RM738mn
Savings of RM936mn
Savings of RM225mn
Pushing more sales online, reconnecting with customer base, more housekeeping
However, we expect to see the results from the operational restructuring undertaken from 2006 bearing fruit in the next few years as MAS emerges with a relatively leaner cost base. Leasing costs have been reduced from their peak by 28%, and we see further reductions of 20-30% in FY10-12F as MAS moves towards owning more of its fleet. (Management aims to ultimately own 33-67% of its fleet.) Post Idris Jalas (ex-CEO) departure in August 2009, the continuation of its operational turnaround falls on the new CEO, Tengku Azmil. Investors looking for a seamless handover and continuation of MASs turnaround story will likely be comforted by the fact that the new CEO was part of Idris Jalas team during the initial turnaround years (as CFO).
Non-fuel cost cutting across the board, with more to come, in our view
Nomura
121
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 192. Staff cut by 16%, downtrend in leasing costs to continue with increasing fleet ownership
('000) 23,000 22,000 21,000 20,000 19,000 18,000 FY05
Source: Company data
Exhibit 193. Non-fuel costs on a downtrend via revenue and procurement management
(RMmn) 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 FY06 2006^
Source: Company data
(RMmn) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000
Staff Commissions
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY07 2007^
FY08 2008^
FY09 2009^
We expect this trend of falling costs to continue in FY10-12F given ongoing costreduction efforts, resulting in a 4-10% y-y fall in cost/ASKs (ex-fuel) and a 5-7% y-y fall in cost/ASKs. To note, our assumption of a 7% fall in cost/ASK by FY12F is more or less in line with the companys target to reduce cost/ASK by 15% in 2015. Commission costs are expected to fall further as MAS has eliminated commissions for its travel agents while pushing its online e-ticketing system in a bid to reduce ticketing costs. We also see its fleet renewal strategy serving up cost reductions in the form of effective fuel burn.
Cost/ASKs to fall 5-7% while fleet renewal to drive improvement in yield over the next three years, in our view
Exhibit 194. More room for cost/ASK to trend down closer to peer levels of 20-22 sen
(RM sen) 0.30 Cost / ASK Cost ex fuel / ASK
Exhibit 195. More cost reductions to kick in by FY11F as MAS continues housekeeping in FY10F
0.25
0.20
0.15
Moving out of the 2009 crisis, the continued rebound in GDP growth and its flowthrough effects on international trade movements are likely to positively impact MASs other divisions, namely its cargo division (MASKargo contributes circa 10-11% of revenue) and its MRO unit. After a 33% drop in revenue in 2009, MASKargo recorded a 53% rise in its 1Q10 top line (y-y) amidst improving load factors (78% at 1Q10 versus 64% in 1Q09). In FY10F, MASKargo is likely to continue its positive contribution to MAS on a rebound from 2009 lows but also via its proactive pursuing of additional revenue opportunities, a key one being its strategic cooperation with Hainan Air Group (HNA Group, Chinas fourthlargest airline group) to improve its connectivity to domestic China destinations and give it the opportunity to have another hub in Pudong, Shanghai.
Improving contribution from other divisions to help drive MASs topline too
Nomura
122
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Its continuation of its alliance and partnership with DHL Global Forwarding and DB Schenker (MAS is on both the organisations preferred carrier list) is likely to contribute to sustained performance of its cargo division arm, as well. (Overall, Nomura estimates are looking for a moderate 10% rebound y-y on cargo top line for FY10F as its new freighters are delivered around 4Q10.) As for its MRO unit (which fell 40% in FY09 as many airlines grounded their planes), we expect the contribution to recover to just under pre-crisis levels, fuelled by MASs new MRO contracts into Indias MRO sector as evidenced by its new three-year contract with SpiceJet (an Indian LCC) and its 10-year contract with Jet Airways.
Exhibit 198. Yield difference has narrowed, with fleet renewal likely to close the gap further
(RM sen) 30
20
10
0 SIA MAS
Source: Company data 2009
SIA
The companys ageing B747s are expected to be phased out and replaced with new 777-800s, with new blended winglets to improve aerodynamics and auxiliary power units (APUs) with lower fuel consumption. Management also expects its new A330s to yield up to RM300mn in cost savings from fuel and operating efficiencies.
Nomura
123
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
On the other hand, its six firmed A380 aircraft are envisaged to serve higher-density routes such as Kuala Lumpur-London and Kuala Lumpur-Sydney, given their highest seat count (510 seats) among MASs fleet.
2011F 3 5 0
2012F 8 3 6
2013F 12 3 0
2014F 9 5 0
2015F 0 5 0
2016F 0 4 0
Total 35 25^ 6
3 0 0
^ 10 options, 15 firmed. Delivery of five A380s originally scheduled for 2011 has since been delayed to 2012.
As such, we expect a positive twofold impact on MAS arising from its fleet enhancement programme. First, a new fleet is expected to strengthen the airlines bid to tackle its yields an undertaking that was largely unsuccessful in the past as it was constrained by an ageing fleet. MAS is also, for the first time in years, increasing frequencies on more routes from Kuala Lumpur to cities such as Paris, Auckland, Perth and Ho Chi Minh. New routes are coming online as the company moves into its next phase of network realignment since its drastic route cut in 2006, when it eliminated nearly half of its existing routes (mostly domestic that were undertaken for national service, ie, routes that made no commercial sense). After a contracted period of growth as MAS stepped back to harness its controllable cost base, we see the new fleet and network enhancement strengthening its bid to take its yields further above historical levels as it closes the gap separating it from peers. The consequences of operating unprofitable routes in the past also appear to have left MAS with a heightened sensitivity to the importance of immediate responses in terms of route management. This is evidenced by the recent cancellation of 13 flights to Thailand in the wake of the riots there. MAS also suspended its Kuala Lumpur-New York flights on low demand in July 2009, but it maintains an office in New York to offer services via its partner airlines such as KLM.
Impact of fleet renewal is twofold: driving yield improvement and improving fuel efficiency
Increasing frequencies, adding new routes for the first time in five years after shedding nearly half of its routes in 2006
While overall load factors are likely to dip below 70% in FY11-12F as new capacity comes up for the first time in the past five years, we see the buoyant Malaysian economic recovery in FY10F driving an improvement in average fares by 11% (for domestic) and 12% (for international). This rebound should largely return the domestic average fare to pre-crisis levels, given a relatively protected and stable domestic market. Its new Subang Skypark terminal, launched by the Prime Minister in 2009 and home to MASs low-cost carrier Firefly, is close to the city centre (as it is located in the old Subang Airport area), which is likely to appeal to corporate travellers pushed to fly low-cost during the downturn. However, we see international average fares in FY10F regaining slightly less than half the 30% drop they made during the 2009 crisis, as MAS slowly builds traction in a competitive market with new routes and additional frequencies, and as political and environmental headwinds persist throughout the year.
A buoyant Malaysian recovery to return average domestic fares to pre-crisis levels, in our view
Nomura
124
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 201. Domestic average fare to recoup 2009s fall given a protected and mature market
(%) 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.00 (0.03) (0.06) (0.09) (0.12) (0.15) FY08 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F Growth in domestic fares (LHS) Average domestic fare (RHS) (RM) 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200
Exhibit 202. But international average fares should recover over the next two years
(%) 15 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) (20) (25) (30) (35) (40) FY08 Growth in int'l fares (%) (LHS) Average int'l fare (RHS) (RM) 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F
Exhibit 204. Overall, yield improvements of up to 9% likely over the next three years
(RM/RPK) 0.30 0.25 8 0.20 0.15 0.10 4 0.05 0.00 FY09 FY10F FY11F FY12F 2 6 Yield (LHS) Growth (RHS) (%) 10
Overall, we see yield improvements of 5-9% over the next three years, with the strongest yields expected to come in FY11F. The premise for our BUY call on the company is the fact that its yield growth strategy, which hinges on its fleet renewal programme, will see the largest yield improvements in FY11F as delivery of the bulk of its new aircraft starts. We have assumed conservative yield growth for FY12F, given management has yet to provide colour on plans for that year. The second impact of its fleet renewal strategy is that we see fuel efficiencies accruing from flying a new fleet, measured by our estimated 2-10% fall in the number of barrels of fuel consumed/ATK from FY10-12F (versus news reports estimating 7-19% savings arising from the use of new blended winglets1). This is key, as fuel remains the largest cost driver for MAS, accounting for about 30% of its cost base. However, note that such efficiency gains may be overshadowed by what appears to be a costly fuel hedging policy at the moment. MAS hedged 60% of its 2010 fuel requirements (comprising an undisclosed proportion of crude and jet kerosene) for an average cost of US$100/barrel. Our FY10F fuel cost is calculated based on a 15mn barrel consumption, taking into account the hedge and the remaining 40% bought at an assumed full-year jet kerosene price of US$102. (Nomuras FY10F crude forecast of US$85 plus assumption of a 20% crack spread.)
1 Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, 14 Oct 2009
Largest yield improvements in FY11F as bulk deliveries of aircraft start coming in then
Nomura
125
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
(%) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) (1.0) (1.5) (2.0) (2.5)
1%
0%
-1%
-5%
Should oil prices move sideways at current levels for the rest of FY10F, however, we believe MAS would be exposed to what could be a costly hedge, at 60%, compared with its competitors, such as AirAsia, which has hedged a smaller proportion of its fuel supply at a cheaper price and thus has the ability to buy more fuel at spot prices. Still, we think current prices have largely discounted the implications of a costly hedge, as we flag that there will be fuel cost savings accruing from the unhedged portion should oil prices trend sideways (versus our built-in assumptions of US$85 for FY10F per Nomura forecasts). Sensitivity-wise, we see fuel costs moving by RM19mn should crude oil prices swing 1%. This translates into a 9% fall in earnings should crude oil prices rise 1%. However, this is the worst-case scenario, assuming MAS is not passing on costs via fuel surcharges.
Nomura
126
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Exhibit 207. We see finance and depreciation costs hitting 60-70% of EBITDA
(RMmn) 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 FY08 Fin + Dep EBITDA
FY10F
FY11F
FY12F
Note: 2009 not used as EBITDA was negative. Data shown from 2008 as MAS announced its plan to start owning its fleet in 2008. Source: Company data, Nomura estimates
Nomura
127
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Asia 36%
* 2012F numbers are Bloomberg consensus estimates for SIA and Cathay Pacific as Nomura numbers for those stocks are up to 2011F currently. Reference date used at 7 June
At our price target, MAS would trade at 5x FY11F EV/EBITDA, a 22% discount to SIAs EV/EBITDA of 6.4x.
Nomura
128
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Max = 4.2
Min = 1.8
With 17% free float, MAS may see liquidity pose a barrier; however, recent developments on the government-linked companies (GLC) transformation drive spearheaded by the government may be a potential catalyst, in our view. Being 69%owned by Khazanah, the Malaysian governments investment arm, MAS was one of the organisations placed in the GLC Transformation Programme in 2004 in a bid to produce regional champions spearheading the countrys growth by 2015.
We see MAS slowly moving out of phase 2 of transformation, where early fruits of sustainable developments are seen
Besides entailing operational restructuring to boost cost competitiveness, the next step also involves the government subsequently reducing its stake in selected GLCs in a bid to boost liquidity and foreign interest in the Malaysian capital markets. At the same time, the aviation sector is likely to be a focus of government improvement efforts as the tourism sector was named a National Key Economic Area within the recently announced New Economic Model. However, in our view, it is unlikely that Khazanahs stake will be substantially reduced given the strategic importance of the aviation sector to national interests.
Potential timely GLC stake reduction by Khazanah may give a leg up to liquidity
Nomura
129
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
15.5 26 18
85 14.8 26 16
95 15.9 24 16
110 16.5 23 15
3.18
3.0
2.92
Nomura
130
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Financial statements
Income statement (RMmn) Year-end 31 Dec Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Normalised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (%) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FDEPS Per share Reported EPS (RM) Norm EPS (RM) Fully diluted norm EPS (RM) Book value per share (RM) DPS (RM)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 15,504 (13,026) 2,477 (2,172) 305 633 (328) 305 (61) 20 265 (19) 246 1 247 247 247
FY09 11,574 (10,135) 1,440 (2,068) (628) (312) (316) (628) (85) 12 (701) 31 (670) 3 (667) 1,163 496 496
FY10F 13,417 (10,976) 2,442 (2,150) 292 666 (374) 292 (106) 12 197 (12) 186 (3) 183 183 183
FY11F 15,196 (12,056) 3,140 (2,277) 863 1,533 (670) 863 (247) 12 627 (31) 596 (3) 593 593 593
FY12F 17,285 (13,657) 3,627 (2,530) 1,097 2,391 (1,294) 1,097 (411) 12 698 (35) 663 (3) 661 661 661
Cost cutting to continue in FY10-12F, resulting in costs rising at a slower pace, while the top-line rebounds on improved yields
MAS has special exemption from the government which exempts it from paying tax on all sources of income until 2015; only pays minimal tax for overseas subsidiaries
17.2 21.0 17.2 na 1.0 6.6 13.2 16.0 4.1 2.0 1.6 7.2 4.9 2.3 6.1 5.4
na na 8.6 na 5.5 na na 12.4 (2.7) (5.4) 4.3 na 7.9 2.9 20.2 (10.0)
32.9 40.2 32.9 7.1 1.6 9.6 21.4 18.2 5.0 2.2 1.4 6.0 15.9 5.7 8.5 4.2
10.1 12.4 10.1 3.0 1.4 6.7 11.8 20.7 10.1 5.7 3.9 5.0 30.7 7.0 15.3 8.1
9.1 11.1 9.1 2.3 1.2 4.9 10.5 21.0 13.8 6.3 3.8 5.0 18.0 2.4 14.7 7.7
15.9 na na na na
Nomura
131
14 June 2010
Jacinda Loh
Cashflow (RMmn) Year-end 31 Dec EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 633 (1,328) 71 (624) (764) (1,387) (15) 81 114 (200) (1,408) 0 546
FY09 (312) 1,822 (3,158) (1,648) (914) (2,561) (8) 195 613 (12) (1,772) 865
FY10F 666 (922) 1,101 845 (2,127) (1,283) (120) (727) (2,130) 1,671 1,927
Balance sheet (RMmn) As at 31 Dec Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 3,572 2,020 380 795 6,767 73 2,465 106 1 659 10,072 425 2,409 2,054 4,887 873 114 5,875 11 1,671 (2,129) 4,643 4,186 10,072
FY09 2,665 1,447 385 287 4,785 81 3,044 110 34 464 8,518 288 2,236 2,973 5,497 1,545 727 7,770 12 1,671 (5,590) 4,655 736 8,518
FY10F 4,133 1,969 525 287 6,914 81 4,865 110 34 584 12,588 414 2,596 2,354 5,363 3,632 8,995 12 3,342 (5,408) 5,647 3,582 12,588
FY11F 4,083 2,236 1,043 287 7,649 81 8,856 110 34 584 17,315 629 2,947 2,354 5,930 7,198 13,128 12 3,342 (4,815) 5,647 4,175 17,315
FY12F 4,958 2,549 1,359 287 9,154 81 10,670 110 34 584 20,634 497 3,360 2,354 6,211 9,575 15,786 12 3,342 (4,154) 5,647 4,835 20,634
1.38 5.0
0.87 (7.4)
1.29 2.8
1.29 3.5
1.47 2.7
na net cash
2.44 89.7
2.14 105.8
Nomura
132
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines S I A S P
TR AN S P O R T/ L O G I S TI C S | S I N G AP O R E
From Neutral
NOMURA INTERNATIONAL (HK) LIMITED
jim.wong@nomura.com shirley.lam@nomura.com
BUY
Closing price on 7 Jun Price target Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY11F net profit (S$mn) Difference from consensus
Source: Nomura
Action
Although SIA is highly geared to the current recovery in premium air passenger traffic, we believe it will be more resilient than most regional airlines in any downturn given its flexible staff cost structure, minimal oil hedging and net cash position. With the overhang of a possible overpriced acquisition diminished, we now find SIAs existing valuation of just 1.1x FY12F P/B attractive, especially as the peer group is averaging a P/B multiple of 1.5x. Upgrade to BUY.
S$14.28
S$16.85
(from S$13.27)
Catalysts
Stronger or weaker numbers from the upcoming 1QFY11 results could provide a stronger conviction on sustainability of recovery, possibly impacting share price. Anchor themes With the Asian economies (led by China) expected to recover at a much faster pace than the US and Europe, airlines with hubs in Asia are expected to see an earlier recovery than their global peers.
Nomura vs consensus
While we are in line with the market on both price target and earnings estimates, we believe there is room for upside should Europe concerns diminish.
Well positioned
Acquisition overhang reduced
With Singapore Airlines (SIA) recent statement that it was unlikely to become a strategic shareholder in China Eastern Airlines (CEA), any risk of SIA potentially over-paying for overseas assets has significantly declined. We note that following the recent substantial capital injection by the Chinese government into CEA, should SIA consider buying a stake in CEA at HK$3.28/shr (below its bid price of HK$3.80/shr in 2008), it would still need to pay 47% more to acquire the same percentage stake.
(46.8) (79.6) 483.5 32.4 16.0 78.7 13.5 10.2 5.4 7.1 4.1 3.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.1 7.0 13.5 3.2 4.2 7.3 1.6 9.1 11.3 net cash net cash net cash net cash 141 52.6 0.12 927 35.8 0.78 1,394 19.6 1.18
125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 May10 3m (10.2) (11.3) (7.1) Feb10 Mar10 1m (0.1) (1.7) 2.8 Apr10
Nov09
Dec09
Jan10
Oct09
Absolute (S$) Absolute (US$) Relative to Index Market cap (US$mn) Estimated free float (%) 52-week range (S$) 3-mth avg daily turnover (US$mn) Stock borrowability Major shareholders (%) Temasek Holdings
Source: Company, Nomura estimates
Nomura
133
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Turnover 942 1,067 1,268 1,518 1,500 1,401 1,272 1,630 1,912 2,141 2,380 2,579 -
SIAs proposed move to acquire a 15.7% stake in CEA at HK$3.80/shr (CEAs share price subsequently fell to a low of HK$0.74/shr in October 08 and is now HK$3.28/shr) was a narrowly avoided disaster for SIA in February 08, in our view. If not for the intervention of Air China, which persuaded minority investors to reject the acquisition, SIA could have ended up paying HK$4693mn (or S$853mn) for the right to book an incremental attributable RMB2,413mn (or S$496mn) in losses for CY2008 and, as with its Air New Zealand stake, see its stake in CEA substantially diluted post the bail-out of CEA by the Chinese government following announcements of unprecedented losses by CEA.. Hence, SIAs assertion that it was no longer interested in acquiring a strategic stake in CEA should remove what may have been seen as a potential overhang for many investors. Recall that in its FY10 results briefing, replying to a question regarding SIAs intention to become a strategic investor in CEA, SIAs CEO said, Well China Eastern has decided to join the SkyTeam Alliance. We are a member of Star Alliance, so that would make it hard to envisage how we could tie in with them commercially.
denial of interest in taking a stake in CEA hence may be seen as positive for SIA
Nomura
134
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
We note that post the RMB14bn bailout of CEA by the Chinese government, SIA would have had to pay HK$6880mn or 47% more for the same 15.7% stake in CEA, even based on the current lower share price of HK$3.28/share given that CEAs number of shares have since increased substantially. Following a string of not-so-impressive acquisitions, SIA now rather than acquiring assets is divesting and/or spinning off assets. In August 2009, SIA divested its holding in SATS via the distribution of the groups entire 80% stake in SATS to shareholders in the form of dividends. Based on SATS share price of S$2.45/shr at the time of the stock distribution, SIA shareholders would have received S$1.80/shr in value. In January 2010, SIA spun-off 31.7% of its stake in Tiger Airways (TGR SP; not rated) to the public, thereby effectively reducing its stake in Tiger to 33.0% post listing from 49.0% pre-listing. The spin-off (which valued SIAs stake in Tiger at S$269mn) not only enabled Tiger to expand going forward without depleting the resources of SIA itself, it also enabled the market to independently assign a market value to Tiger, thereby unlocking value which may have been previously hidden within the SIA group structure. Speculation is rife that SIAs 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic could be the next divestment by the group (source: Wall Street Journal, SIA may sell Virgin Atlantic stake, 26 May 2010). As SIA had previously and publicly expressed its interest to sell the groups 49% stake Virgin Atlantic, SIA should be a willing seller should a willing buyer be found. Recall that while SIA initially paid S$1645mn for its 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic in FY2000 (investment further increased to S$1682mn or S$1.42/shr in FY03), of the investment amount, S$1589mn in goodwill has since been written off. SIA should therefore be carrying its 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic at around S$93mn. Hence, any sales proceeds on top of S$93mn are likely to be booked as profits. Furthermore, should a sale result in significant disposal gains, it is also highly possible that SIA may distribute some of such gains back to shareholders in the form of special dividends, in our view.
A success sale of Virgin Atlantic should enhance value SIA has been divesting rather than acquiring assets
SATS 47 33 38 44 43 46 44 27 0 0
SIA Eng 19 21 16 41 29 27 12 35 22 41
Others Group EBIT 23 24 19 207 17 (201) 0 3 30 16 675 468 343 232 357 (28) (319) (181) 323 241
Net profit 590 528 359 324 337 42 (307) (159) 404 278
While 4QFY10 (or 1QCY10) earnings were below those of 3QFY10, this is only due to seasonality as 3QFY10 is traditionally the strongest quarter of the year given that the Christmas holidays fall within the quarter.
Nomura
135
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
We note that SIA's 4QFY10 results continued to show improving passenger yields (at S$11.1cts/RPK in 4QFY10 from S$9.8cts/RPK in 2QFY10) and declining passenger breakeven load factors.
Px load factor (%) 81.3 79.4 76.7 79.1 78.5 71.2 71.6 79.6 82.4 80.0
23,568 23,034 23,191 24,104 23,297 19,536 18,655 21,253 22,108 20,867
Px unit cost (cts/ASK) 8.4 8.9 8.7 9.5 9.3 9.1 8.6 8.7 8.3 8.6
Px breakeven load factor (%) 67.7 71.2 70.2 74.2 72.7 77.1 84.3 88.8 79.0 77.5
12.4 12.5 12.4 12.8 12.8 11.8 10.2 9.8 10.5 11.1
Cargo load factor (%) 62.9 61.2 61.3 60.8 58.4 56.5 58.5 62.9 65.1 64.8
2,120 1,814 1,965 1,991 1,820 1,524 1,552 1,680 1,803 1,624
Nomura
136
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Cargo unit cost (cts/ATK) 23.5 23.8 24.8 28 24.3 21.9 21.1 21.7 21.3 22.4
Cargo breakeven load factor (%) 57.9 58.8 61.1 65.9 63.4 75.0 77.6 76.0 61.0 64.2
40.6 40.5 40.6 42.5 38.3 29.2 27.2 28.7 34.9 34.9
In terms of oil hedging, SIA's oil hedging losses fell to S$19mn in 4QFY10, versus a loss of S$198mn in 2QFY10 and loss of S$287mn in 1QFY10, as shown below:
Exhibit 221. Crude oil price and SIA's oil hedging trend
Oil price (US$/bbl) 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 Spot
Source: Bloomberg, Company data
SIA's hedging gain/(loss) (S$mn) 115 134 347 186 (341) (540) (287) (198) (53) (19) -
91 98 124 118 59 43 60 68 76 79 72
SIA budgets for capital expenditure of S$1.45bn in FY11F, S$2.2bn in FY12F and S$1.4bn in FY13F as it will be only adding just one passenger aircraft in FY11 on a net-net basis to its already existing fleet of 109 passenger aircraft. While SIA will be taking delivery of four A380-800s and 8 A330-300s in FY11 (most are expected to be leased rather than owned), it will also be leasing out six B777s, sell four B777s and returning to lessor one B744 in FY11. Hence, the group will only be expanding its passenger or cargo capacity slowly and is looking to focus on improving yields rather than volumes. Any capacity expansion is expected to be more into regional routes and less in international routes. Despite a relatively slow capacity expansion, SIA has in fact being seeing a system wide improvement in mix, with a pronounced recovery in business class and expects this recovery to be sustained. In the Outlook section of its results, SIA states that "Advance bookings for travel in the year ahead are encouraging, especially in Business Class." and that "Yields should keep pace with the growth in demand".
Going forward, focus will be on improving yields rather than volumes
Nomura
137
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Similarly SIAs new strategy of minimal oil hedging (the group is planning to hedge only 20% of expected consumption in FY11) should also reduce hedging losses in any given downturn. The theory is that in an economic downturn, oil prices should fall. Hence a lower hedging ratio should result in reduced oil hedging losses, thereby enabling SIA to be more resilient than peers in terms of earnings in any downturn. We note that the way most airlines structure their hedging, hedging gains are made when oil prices move up and hedging losses are made when oil prices move down. The groups strong balance sheet (it is net cash) also adds to SIAs defensive nature. With an abundance of cash, the group should be able to weather any downturn longer than its peers.
Well positioned
While the Asian aviation recovery is a macro one, SIA is arguably better positioned to take advantage of the recovery than most. As previously noted, a pronounced improvement in business class traffic has been one of the factors driving the current recovery. SIA, with one of the youngest and highest quality aircraft fleet in the region, should be able to attract a higher proportion of premium traffic than its peers.
SIA has one of the youngest fleet in the world
Avg fleet age (years) 2.5 6.2 6.3 7.2 7.4 8.5 9.8 9.0 9.0 11.6
Fleet growth (%) 2010F 4.8 9.0 3.3 7.8 10.3 1.8 8.6 4.8 3.5 2.9 2011F 17.0 8.5 4.0 5.8 10.4 0.0 na 12.1 3.4 7.5
Nomura
138
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Although SIA is very much an international carrier, given its home base of Singapore, it is also very well positioned in the ASEAN region. Given that the ASEAN member countries are looking to grow their respective economies via increased connectivity, an open-skies policy among ASEAN countries is on the cards over the medium tern, in our view. With SIA being the dominant carrier in Singapore (which is already a very open market) and a dominant carrier in Indonesia (a much more protected market), an open-skies policy could provide the group with increased opportunities that should outweigh any increased challenges, in our view.
Valuations undemanding
Trading at an estimated FY11F P/E of 13.5x, FY11F P/B of 1.19x and FY12F P/B of 1.10x, we view SIAs existing valuations as undemanding. Following our upgrade of SIAs FY11F and FY12F net profit estimates by 35.8% and 19.6% respectively (on the back of a stronger-than-expected yield recovery), we raise our price target on the stock to S$16.85/shr from S$13.27/shr previously.
New price target of HK$16.85/shr
P/BV (LHS)
(%) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Mean=1.0x
Min=0.5x
Sep-93
Mar-97
Sep-00
Mar-04
Sep-07
Mar-11
Our price target of S$16.85/shr for SIA is based a FY12F P/B of 1.3x (upgraded from 1.2x on the back of reduced acquisition risk). While this is higher than the groups historical mid-cycle P/B of 1.0x, we believe this is reasonable given SIAs home base of Singapore is expected to see exceptionally high economic growth over the next few years (among the strongest economic growths in the world).
2008 9.0 7.3 6.2 6.1 1.1 4.6 2.6 3.8 0.1 2.2 2.4 1.1 0.7 (0.7) 0.9
2009F 8.7 6.4 5.3 4.5 (2.0) (1.7) (2.3) 0.9 (1.9) 0.2 (2.8) (2.4) (4.9) (5.2) (4.0)
2010F 10.5 8.8 6.5 5.9 10.2 7.0 3.3 5.0 7.9 5.5 5.5 3.3 1.3 3.4 1.1
2011F 9.8 8.3 6.6 6.3 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.0 2.7 2.5 2.0 1.8
Nomura
139
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Further given SIAs strong brand name, young fleet and superior product offering (in the A380s), it is arguably best positioned to take advantage of the projected sustained premium traffic recovery. Hence, we would argue that SIA should at least trade at similar, if not higher, P/B than other full service airlines in the region.
2011 P/BV (x) 1.1* 1.9 1.3 1.1 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.2
Nomura
140
14 June 2010
Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Financial statements
Income statement (S$mn) Year-end 31 Mar Revenue Cost of goods sold Gross profit SG&A Employee share expense Operating profit EBITDA Depreciation Amortisation EBIT Net interest expense Associates & JCEs Other income Earnings before tax Income tax Net profit after tax Minority interests Other items Preferred dividends Norm alised NPAT Extraordinary items Reported NPAT Dividends Transfer to reserves Valuation and ratio analysis FD normalised P/E (x) FD normalised P/E at price target (x) Reported P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) Price/cashflow (x) Price/book (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (% ) Effective tax rate (%) Dividend payout (%) Capex to sales (%) Capex to depreciation (x) ROE (% ) ROA (pretax %) Growth (%) Revenue EBITDA EBIT Normalised EPS Normalised FD EPS Per share Reported EPS (S$) Norm EPS (S$) Fully diluted norm EPS (S$) Book value per share (S$) DPS (S$)
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 15,973 (13,848) 2,125 2,125 3,656 (1,531) 2,125 81 161 181 2,547 (410) 2,137 (88) 2,049 2,049 (1,277) 773
FY09 15,996 (15,093) 904 904 2,599 (1,695) 904 6 175 114 1,199 (52) 1,147 (85) 1,062 1,062 (1,185) (123)
FY10F 12,707 (12,644) 63 63 1,820 (1,757) 63 (19) 149 93 286 (6) 280 (64) 216 216 (2,273) (2,058)
FY11F 14,606 (13,239) 1,367 1,367 3,159 (1,792) 1,367 (33) 164 110 1,608 (289) 1,318 (59) 1,259 1,259 (532) 727
FY12F 15,999 (14,143) 1,856 1,856 3,619 (1,762) 1,856 (33) 180 100 2,104 (379) 1,726 (58) 1,667 1,667 (710) 958
8.6 10.1 8.5 7.4 4.1 1.1 3.6 5.9 13.3 22.9 13.3 12.8 16.1 62.3 13.1 1.4 13.6 10.8
16.0 18.9 15.9 7.0 11.7 1.2 5.4 13.9 5.6 16.2 5.6 6.6 4.3 111.6 12.7 1.2 7.3 5.1
78.7 92.9 78.3 13.5 8.6 1.3 7.1 66.2 0.5 14.3 0.5 1.7 2.1 1,053.5 12.3 0.9 1.6 1.1
13.5 15.9 13.4 3.2 5.6 1.2 4.1 9.0 9.4 21.6 9.4 8.6 18.0 42.3 17.8 1.5 9.1 8.6
10.2 12.0 10.1 4.2 4.8 1.1 3.3 6.1 11.6 22.6 11.6 10.4 18.0 42.6 15.0 1.4 11.3 10.9
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Singapore Airlines
Jim Wong
Cashflow (S$mn) Year-end 31 Mar EBITDA Change in working capital Other operating cashflow Cashflow from operations Capital expenditure Free cashflow Reduction in investments Net acquisitions Reduction in other LT assets Addition in other LT liabilities Adjustments Cashflow after investing acts Cash dividends Equity issue Debt issue Convertible debt issue Others Cashflow from financial acts Net cashflow Beginning cash Ending cash Ending net debt
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 3,656 675 (126) 4,206 (2,089) 2,117 (64) 538 (232) (55) 351 2,654 (1,370) (1,284) (2,653) 1 5,118 5,119 (3,461)
FY09 2,599 (119) (1,034) 1,445 (2,031) (586) (495) 555 233 (398) 660 (30) (1,260) 20 (1,241) (1,271) 5,119 3,848 (2,025)
FY10F 1,820 (245) 391 1,966 (1,560) 406 776 211 342 (118) (768) 849 (286) 62 (225) 624 3,848 4,472 (2,967)
FY11F 3,159 (746) 610 3,022 (2,600) 422 350 (164) 10 154 772 (319) (136) (455) 317 4,472 4,789 (3,278)
FY12F 3,619 1,702 (1,808) 3,513 (2,400) 1,113 650 (180) 47 134 1,763 (532) 22 (510) 1,252 4,789 6,042 (4,508)
Balance sheet (S$mn) As at 31 Mar Cash & equivalents Marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventories Other current assets Total current assets LT investments Fixed assets Goodwill Other intangible assets Other LT assets Total assets Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term debt Convertible debt Other LT liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Preferred stock Common stock Retained earnings Proposed dividends Other equity and reserves Total shareholders' equity Total equity & liabilities Liquidity (x) Current ratio Interest cover Leverage Net debt/EBITDA (x) Net debt/equity (%) Activity (days) Days receivable Days inventory Days payable Cash cycle
Source: Nomura estimates
FY08 5,119 2,044 508 643 8,313 512 16,474 1,216 26,515 59 3,368 2,531 5,958 1,599 3,329 10,886 504 1,682 13,443 15,125 26,515
FY09 3,848 1,486 503 1,000 6,837 1,007 15,992 983 24,819 310 3,582 1,992 5,883 1,514 2,931 10,328 560 1,685 12,246 13,931 24,819
FY10F 4,472 1,348 430 300 6,549 231 15,064 641 22,484 67 2,499 1,919 4,484 1,438 2,813 8,735 280 1,751 11,718 13,469 22,484
FY11F 4,789 1,280 494 302 6,866 231 14,580 805 22,482 73 1,511 2,160 3,745 1,438 2,823 8,006 280 1,751 12,445 14,196 22,482
FY12F 6,041 1,506 568 306 8,421 231 16,018 986 25,655 80 3,539 2,137 5,757 1,452 2,870 10,079 280 1,751 13,545 15,295 25,655
1.40 na
1.16 na
1.46 3.3
1.83 41.4
1.46 57.1
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14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Nomura
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Jim Wong
Nomura
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14 June 2010
Jim Wong
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Each of the research analysts referenced on the cover page or in connection with the section of this research report for which he or she is responsible hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers discussed herein. In addition, each of the research analysts referenced on the cover page or in connection with the section of this research report for which he or she is responsible hereby certifies that no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views that he or she has expressed in this research report, nor is it tied to any specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or by any other Nomura Group company or affiliates thereof.
Conflict-of-interest disclosures
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Distribution of Ratings:
Nomura Global Equity Research has 1,884 companies under coverage. 48% have been assigned a Buy rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Buy rating; 34% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 36% have been assigned a Neutral rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 46% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. 14% have been assigned a Reduce rating which, for purposes of mandatory disclosures, are classified as a Sell rating; 8% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Nomura Group*. As at 31 March 2010. *The Nomura Group as defined in the Disclaimer section at the end of this report.
Nomura
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14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America for ratings published from 27 October 2008:
The rating system is a relative system indicating expected performance against a specific benchmark identified for each individual stock. Analysts may also indicate absolute upside to price target defined as (fair value - current price)/current price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the fair value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow or multiple analysis, etc. Stocks: A rating of "1", or "Buy", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of "2", or "Neutral", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of "3", or "Reduce", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of "RS-Rating Suspended", indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company. Benchmarks are as follows: United States/Europe: Please see valuation methodologies for explanations of relevant benchmarks for stocks (accessible through the left hand side of the Nomura Disclosure web page: http://www.nomura.com/research); Global Emerging Markets (exAsia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia, unless otherwise stated in the valuation methodology. Sectors: A "Bullish" stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A "Neutral" stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next 12 months. A "Bearish" stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next 12 months. Benchmarks are as follows: United States: S&P 500; Europe: Dow Jones STOXX 600; Global Emerging Markets (ex-Asia): MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia.
Explanation of Nomuras equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published from 30 October 2008 and in Japan from 6 January 2009:
Stocks: Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Price Target Current Price) / Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Price Target will equal the analysts 12-month intrinsic valuation of the stock, based on an appropriate valuation methodology such as discounted cash flow, multiple analysis, etc. A "Buy" recommendation indicates that potential upside is 15% or more. A "Neutral" recommendation indicates that potential upside is less than 15% or downside is less than 5%. A "Reduce" recommendation indicates that potential downside is 5% or more. A rating of "RS" or "Rating Suspended" indicates that the rating and target price have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including when Nomura is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the subject company. Stocks labelled as "Not rated" or shown as "No rating" are not in Nomura's regular research coverage. Sectors: A "Bullish" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A "Neutral" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A "Bearish" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation.
Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system in Japan published prior to 6 January 2009 (and ratings in Europe, Middle East and Africa, US and Latin America published prior to 27 October 2008):
Stocks: A rating of "1", or "Strong buy", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months. A rating of "2", or "Buy", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months. A rating of "3", or "Neutral", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to either outperform or underperform the Benchmark by less than 5% over the next six months. A rating of "4", or "Reduce", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 5% or more but less than 15% over the next six months. A rating of "5", or "Sell", indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark by 15% or more over the next six months. Stocks labeled "Not rated" or shown as "No rating" are not in Nomura's regular research coverage. Nomura might not publish additional research reports concerning this company, and it undertakes no obligation to update the analysis, estimates, projections, conclusions or other information contained herein. Sectors: A "Bullish" stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to outperform the Benchmark during the next six months. A "Neutral" stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to perform in line with the Benchmark during the next six months. A "Bearish" stance, indicates that the analyst expects the sector to underperform the Benchmark during the next six months. Benchmarks are as follows: Japan: TOPIX; United States: S&P 500, MSCI World Technology Hardware & Equipment; Europe, by sector Hardware/Semiconductors: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Telecoms: FTSE W Europe Business Services; Business Services: FTSE W Europe; Auto & Components: FTSE W Europe Auto & Parts; Communications equipment: FTSE W Europe IT Hardware; Ecology Focus: Bloomberg World Energy Alternate Sources; Global Emerging Markets: MSCI Emerging Markets ex-Asia.
Nomura
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14 June 2010
Jim Wong
Explanation of Nomura's equity research rating system for Asian companies under coverage ex Japan published prior to 30 October 2008:
Stocks: Stock recommendations are based on absolute valuation upside (downside), which is defined as (Fair Value - Current Price)/Current Price, subject to limited management discretion. In most cases, the Fair Value will equal the analyst's assessment of the current intrinsic fair value of the stock using an appropriate valuation methodology such as Discounted Cash Flow or Multiple analysis etc. However, if the analyst doesn't think the market will revalue the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts, then the fair value may differ from the intrinsic fair value. In most cases, therefore, our recommendation is an assessment of the difference between current market price and our estimate of current intrinsic fair value. Recommendations are set with a 6-12 month horizon unless specified otherwise. Accordingly, within this horizon, price volatility may cause the actual upside or downside based on the prevailing market price to differ from the upside or downside implied by the recommendation. A "Strong buy" recommendation indicates that upside is more than 20%. A "Buy" recommendation indicates that upside is between 10% and 20%. A "Neutral" recommendation indicates that upside or downside is less than 10%. A "Reduce" recommendation indicates that downside is between 10% and 20%. A "Sell" recommendation indicates that downside is more than 20%. Sectors: A "Bullish" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a positive absolute recommendation. A "Neutral" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a neutral absolute recommendation. A "Bearish" rating means most stocks in the sector have (or the weighted average recommendation of the stocks under coverage is) a negative absolute recommendation.
Price targets
Price targets, if discussed, reflect in part the analyst's estimates for the company's earnings. The achievement of any price target may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market, and may not occur if the company's earnings differ from estimates.
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Nomura
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14 June 2010
Jim Wong
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