Ethics and Sustainability Tutorial 1

1) Assume that a generation is approximately 25 years. If each female has, on average, x children who survive into adulthood (half of whom are female), estimate how the population would change over time for different values of x. Compare your calculations with the estimated historical size of the world population reported on the US Census website. Given this comparison, what do you think is the approximate historical value of x? Starting at 10,000 BC, the population of the world was assumed around 5,000,000 people, with 2,500,000 women. If each female has x children that survive, then the number of female children = x. So for the 2,500,00 women, the number of female children = 1,250,000 x Hence the total number of male children = 1,250,000 x And the total number of children is = 2,500,000 x This pattern can be continued: 2,500,000 women (1st generation)

1,250,000 x female children (2nd generation)

625,000 x2 female children (3rd generation)

312,500 x3 female children (4th generation)

156,240 x4 female children (5th generation) Where one generation is 25 years. If x = 1: 1st generation: 5,000,000 2nd generation: 2,500,000 3rd generation: 1,250,000 I.e. The total population will decrease

If x = 2: 1st generation: 5,000,000 2nd generation: 5,000,000 3rd generation: 5,000,000 i.e. the total population will remain constant If x = 3: 1st generation: 5,000,000 2nd generation: 7,500,000 3rd generation: 11,250,000 i.e. the total population will gradually increase If x = 4: 1st generation: 5,000,000 2nd generation: 10,000,000 3rd generation: 20,000,000 i.e. the total population will double between generations

From this graph of total world population against time, it can be seen that the population remained constant between 10000 BC and 2000 BC. Therefore, the value of x = 2
1

University of Strathclyde, cp305 ethics and sustainability course notes

In recent years the population has increased dramatically. The value of x = 4. This is due to the industrial revolution which has contributed to improved living standards and healthcare. Children are much more likely to survive into adulthood. 2. (a) Given a solar constant of S = 1368Wm2, estimate the maximum flux of energy from the Sun in Glasgow (latitude 55_500 N) on June 22 and December 22. On June 22nd: Flux = S x cos = 1368 W/m2 x cos 31.5 = 1166.41 W/m2 On December 22nd: Flux = S x cos = 1368 W/m2 x cos 78.5 = 272.74 W/m2 (b) The current rate of energy consumption in the world is estimated to be 12 _ 109 toe, where 1 toe = 41:868 _ 109 J. Estimate the surface area required to supply the energy consumption of the world using photovoltaic cells with a conversion efficiency of 10%. List any other assumptions made. World energy consumption It was assumed that the value provided was the energy consumption for one year. 12 x 10 9 toe/year = 5.024 x 1020 J/year = 1.59 x 1013 J/s Available energy 1368 W/m2 x 0.1 = 136.8 W/m2 Total required surface area

(c) What are the practical problems associated with replacing the use of fossil fuels with solar energy? The variability of the suns energy presents problems. At certain times less energy will be produced, potentially causing a shortage of energy. This would need to be prevented by using back up sources of energy i.e. nuclear, coal. At present, the electricity grid isnt capable of storing excess energy produced by the photovoltaic cells. New energy storage systems must also be developed.

3. Given that the solar constant of the Earth is S = 1368Wm2, determine the solar constant of Venus and the temperatures of the Earth and Venus. The Stefan-Boltzmann constant is _ = 5:670373 _ 108Wm2 K4. Use the data provided in the table below

Where S = solar flux received at planet S0 = solar flux at earth R = distance of planet from the sun R0 = distance of earth from the sun For venus:

Temperature of the earth Power absorbed by the planet

Taking into account the albedo:

Power radiated by the planet:

Taking into account dissipation:

So Pblackbody = 3.03 X 1016/0.612 = 4.95 X 1016 W

Temperature of venus Power absorbed by the planet

Taking into account the albedo:

Power radiated by the planet:

Taking into account dissipation:

So Pblackbody = 2.26 X 1016/0.01 = 2.26 X 1018 W

4. Potential of wind power: Assuming that the half of the Earth that is illuminated by the Sun is at a temperature TH and the dark half of the Earth is at a temperature TC, estimate the amount of power (useful work) that can be generated from this temperature difference as a function of TH. What is the maximum power (useful work) that can be generated, and what percentage is this of the total solar energy that falls on the Earth? This is an estimate for the potential work that can be extracted from wind power. Recall that the efficiency _ of a Carnot (reversible) engine operating between temperatures TH and TC is _ = 1 TC=TH. Take the solar constant to be S = 1368Wm2 and the background temperature of space to be 0 K.

5. Within the Malthusian economic model, explain the impact on the population and average percapita income y of (i) the declaration of a war which then becomes ongoing, (ii) an increase intaxes, and (iii) the development of a new technology that makes food production more efficient. Be sure to include diagrams of the birth rate, death rate, and total population with per capitaincome in your discussion. (i)

A war will reduce the population of a country for a period of time while the war is ongoing. The Malthusian model predicts that this decrease in population will lead to an increase in the wage of an average person. (graph 2). Once the population has recovered, the wage will begin to decrease. (ii) An increase in taxes will mean a decrease in the average persons wage. Correspondingly, the death rate will increase. (iii) This improvement will cause a decrease in death rate. Correspondingly, the population will increase and the average wage will fall.

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/clark2.jpg