Critical Path Analysis

Precedence Diagram Technique Precedence Networks

JOIN KHALID AZIZ

ECONOMICS OF ICMAP, ICAP, MAECONOMICS, B.COM. FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING OF ICMAP STAGE 1,3,4 ICAP MODULE B, B.COM, BBA, MBA & PIPFA. COST ACCOUNTING OF ICMAP STAGE 2,3 ICAP MODULE D, BBA, MBA & PIPFA. CONTACT: 0322-3385752 0312-2302870 R-1173,ALNOOR SOCIETY, BLOCK 19,F.B.AREA, KARACHI, PAKISTAN

Critical Path Analysis

why do it? what are the inputs? the process using the outputs PERT and uncertainty

the context
identify tasks sequence estimate resources analysis scheduling optimisation

what are the benefits?

critical path non-critical activities

what are the inputs?

tasks sequence/dependencie s durations

Sequence
the most common sequences / dependencies
Task A Task B
Task B depends upon Task A; B cannot start until A is finished

Task A

Task B Task C

Tasks B and C depend on Task A; neither can start until A is finished, but B and C are independent of each other Task C depends upon Task A and B; C cannot start until both A and B are finished

Task A Task C Task B

rules and conventions

just one start just one finish no danglers finish early early start
time

duration

time

task number and/or name

late start time

float

late finish time

slack

the process - 2 stages

Task 02 Task 03

draw analyse

Task 07 Task 01 Task 04 Task 05 Task 09

Task 06

Task 08

the process - forward pass

3 4 7 7 3 10
Task 02 Task 03

12 5 0 3 3 3 6 9 9 3 12

17 17 1 18

Task 07 Task 01 Task 04 Task 05 Task 09

2
Task 06

2
Task 08

Duration = 18

the process - backward pass

3 5 0 0 3 0 3 3 3 3 4 2 6 0 2
Task 06

7 9 9 9 5

7 9

3 2 3

10 12

Task 02

Task 03

12 5 12 0

17 17 17 1 18 18

Task 07

9 9

12

Task 01

Task 04

Task 05

Task 09

0 12 5 2
Task 08

17 0 7

13 10 15

15 10 17

more unusual links and relationships

so far all links have been finish-start links...
3 days

Task A

Task B

Task B depends upon Task A, but with a 3 day delay; B cannot start until 3 days after A is finished The start of Task C depends on the start of Task A; this is a start-to-start link; it may also incorporate a delay The finish of Task C depends upon the finish of Task A

Task A Task C Task A Task C

using the outputs

Gantt Charts resource histograms resource smoothing optimising the schedule

Scheduling
task res. Duration Calendar

task 1 task 2 task 3 task 4 task 5 task 6 task 7

Jane Bill Jane Jim Bill Jane Bill

2 days 3 days 1 day 2 days 7 days 4 days 1 day

PERT and uncertainty - 1

5 Task 02

The critical path looks like tasks 01-02-04

2 Task 01

4 Task 04

4 Task 03

But what if you are not sure about the duration for Task 03?

PERT and uncertainty - 2

5 Task 02

The better estimate for Task 03 might be its PERT estimate, or Expected Value, EV)
4 Task 04

2 Task 01

EV = O + 4L + P ___________ 6

4 Task 03

O = Optimistic estimate (say 2) L = Most Likely (say 4) P = Pessimistic (say 12)

In this example the EV = 6, which does, in fact change the critical path

PERT and uncertainty - 3

But how confident can we be in these results? An durations spread is the degree to which estimates of the duration differ from each other. If every estimate of duration were about equal, the estimate would have very little spread. There are many measures of spread. The distributions on this page have the same mean but differ in spread: the distribution on the bottom is more spread out.

PERT and uncertainty - 4

Standard deviation is used as a measure of spread. In a normal distribution, about 68% of estimates are within one standard deviation of the mean and about 95% of the estimates are within two standards deviations of the mean. EV = O + 4L + P ___________ 6 SD = (P O)/6 O = Optimistic estimate (say 2) L = Most Likely (say 4) P = Pessimistic (say 12) In our example SD = (12-2)/6 = 1.666

So, we could say that, for task 03: With 68% certainty, the duration will be between 2.34 and 5.66 (4 SD) With 95% certainty the duration will be between 0.68 and 7.32 (4 2SD)

Classroom Practice - 1
4
Task 02

2
Task 03

3
Task 07

4
Task 01

9
Task 04

5
Task 05

2
Task 09

4
Task 06

1
Task 08

Classroom Practice - 2
4
Task 02

2
Task 03

5
Task 05

2
Task 01

6
Task 04

5
Task 07

4
Task 06

Classroom Practice - 3
2
Task 02

2
Task 03

3
Task 07

7
Task 01

5
Task 05

2
Task 09

4
Task 06

+ 4 days

JOIN KHALID AZIZ

ECONOMICS OF ICMAP, ICAP, MAECONOMICS, B.COM. FINANCIAL ACCOUNTING OF ICMAP STAGE 1,3,4 ICAP MODULE B, B.COM, BBA, MBA & PIPFA. COST ACCOUNTING OF ICMAP STAGE 2,3 ICAP MODULE D, BBA, MBA & PIPFA. CONTACT: 0322-3385752 0312-2302870 R-1173,ALNOOR SOCIETY, BLOCK 19,F.B.AREA, KARACHI, PAKISTAN