Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Shangri-La Dialogue: The Ghost of China Past Carlyle A. Thayer May 31, 2012

[client name deleted] (1) Tim Huxley & Co [International Institute of Strategic Studies] have told us that Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie won't be coming to this years Shangri-La Dialogue, and that the big US trio of Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff James Dempsey and Commander US Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Locklear will be there. How do you read this? Why are the Chinese not sending high-powered representation as they did last yeaer? ANSWER: There are three reasons why China is not sending its defense minister or other high-level defence officials to the Shangri-La Dialogue. First, China insists that the South China Sea issue can only be settled bilaterally. The Shangri-La Dialogue includes a session explicitly focuses on the South China Sea. Session 1 is entitled Containing the South China Sea Disputes. The Philippines Defense SecretaryVoltaire Gazmin is a scheduled speaker. Second, China does not want to be ambushed in a setting it cannot control. China is sure to come under criticism by Secretary Gazmin and US Senator Joe Liberman who is also a listed speaker. Third, Chinas Defence Minister has already spent time in Cambodia to meet with the ASEAN Defence Ministers. This face-to-face meeting was arranged by Cambodia as ASEAN Chair. Defence Minister Luang Guanglie is a major figure in Chinas political system and can ill afford to spend too much time overseas in the midst of current internal party wrangling in China. (2) The South China Sea issue looks hot enough for some fiery rhetoric at the Shangri-La Dialogue this year. Would you agree? ANSWER: No, all speakers will be circumspect. The Philippines, which is already an orphan in some ASEAN circles, must present its case is a low key manner stressing diplomacy and a peaceful resolution of the current standoff at Scarborough Shoal. Secretaty Panetta will be concerned with much broader strategic issues, such as the US pivot to Asia. He will avoid any anti-China rhetoric that makes the US part of the problem rather than part of the solution. (3) Do you think the Shangri-La Dialogue, into its 11th year, has things going for it? Some doubts remain, given that Gen Liang and also the Japanese Defence Naoki Tanaka will not be attending.

2 ANSWER: The decision by the 6th ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) to change the frequency of ADMM Plus meetings from three to two years is a potential death knell for the Shangri-La Dialogue. Annual meetings will have to be reevaluated. Either they are held annually by senior officials or every three years when the ADMM Plus is not meeting. The Shangri-La Dialogue provides a convenient venue for off line discussions, such as for members of the Five Power Defence Arrangements and bilateral meeting between defense ministers. But as the ADMM Plus structure evolves there will be less need for non-governmental bodies to involved themselves in official discussions. The Shangri-La Dialgoue has greatly reduced the role of outside academics and non-governmental specialists due to the rise in participation of a broader spectrum of national security officials. It is likely that overtime the officials will migrate from the Shangri-La Dialgoue to structures that emerge under the ADMM Plus setting. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, Shangri-La Dialogue: The Ghost of China Past, Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing, May 15, 2012.