PROFERCY

USA
E
18 May 2012 Product and origin Granular Urea Middle East Egypt Prilled Urea Romania Middle East UAN Russia (B Sea) Romania Egypt Ammonia FSU Middle East Cargo size metric tonne 35,000 25,000 Fob $mt 515.0 555.0 Freight $mt 35.0 30.0

US nitrogen prices and the Global perspective

fertilizers@profercy.com Publisher of The Profercy Report

World/US Price Comparison

cfr Gulf $mt 550.0 585.0 Equals $pst fob Gulf 502.0 533.7 Current Price $pst fob Gulf 600.0 Average delta 25,000 25,000 505.0 505.0 35.0 48.0 540.0 553.0 492.9 504.7 585.0 Average delta 30,000 25,000 20,000 270.0 280.0 280.0 40.0 40.0 39.0 310.0 320.0 319.0 284.2 293.3 292.4 375.0 Current US price Import cost 98.0 66.3 82.2 92.1 80.3 86.2 90.8 81.7 82.6 85.0 -100.0 -135.0 -117.5

35,000 40,000

570.0 580.0

75.0 100.0

645.0 680.0

Average delta $pt cfr Tampa 545.0 May price Average delta

Notes: Prices quoted are spot. Freight rates are estimates.

Yuzhnyy Prills: Weekly Ranges

600 550 500 450
$pt bulk

400 350 300 250 200 150 100

J F M A M J J 09 A S O N D J F M A M J J 10 A S O N D J F M 11 A M J J A S O N D J F M 12 A M J J A S O N D

Therunupappears tobeover. Although rebounds are possible attimes,thepriceoutlookforJune throughQ3overallseems negative.

Profercy UK: E-mail fertilizers@profercy.com Tel: +44 1372 386205

The Profercy USA Report

Urea
Urea price decline continues Prompt barges of granular urea are now put at $660ps ton fob with June physical at $530-540ps ton fob. On the paper market $455ps ton fob is being offered for June. Buying for corn sidedress is considered virtually complete. The second rice application is expected in a few weeks.
US Gulf Urea: Weekly Price Ranges
$ps ton fob Nola barge 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200
J F MA M J J A SO ND J F MA M J J A S O ND J F M AM J J A S O ND J F M AM J J A SO N D J F MAM J 09 10 11 12 13

shipment from UAE via Marubeni did not materialize. Qafco will ship a cargo to Yara in June while Sabic will resume shipments in July. Urea imports were 651,000t in March, up 3.6% on 2011. The July-March 9-month total was down over 550,000t on the same period of 2011 at 4.44m. tonnes with Canadian deliveries off 200,000t and the balance from offshore. March deliveries of granular to the Gulf were an estimated 530,000t (in line with Profercys prediction for the month). Set against the huge corn acreage expected this year, the sharp reduction in imports explains the huge gain in US prices witnessed in recent months. Corn: Prices remain at lower levels following last weeks USDA report. July is currently around $6.16/bu with December at $5.25/bu.

Headingsouth bytheday. Widerangesreflectprompt outtoJune

Imports: Eurochem will deliver 15-20,000t to the Gulf ex-Klaipeda in second half June. 30,000t will also be shipped in June from Tuapse. A potential US Gulf/ec Projected Gran Urea Imports 2011/12 Origin Shipper 000t Arrival July-Jan actual 2102 Feb 371 Mar 530 Apr est 488 Indonesia Trammo 30 A/M Indonesia Dreymoor 30 May Russia 40 May Qatar 45 May Oman Toepfer 45 May Oman Koch 30 May Oman Helm 30 May Egypt Trammo 25 May Venezuela* 25 May Trinidad* 40 May Egypt Gavilon 30 May Egypt Trammo 7 May Russia 20 June Oman* Toepfer 30 June Egypt Toepfer 25 June Trinidad* 30 June Total 3973 J 10-J 11 3739 Difference 234 *Assumed/possible

UAN
Prompt market edging lower UAN prices are put around $375ps ton Nola fob for May. The increase in the summer fill prices to $280ps ton fob is understood to have cooled interest for now. However, large orders taken at lower levels earlier have left producers comfortable for now. On the east coast bids for floating tonnage around $315pt cfr are reported to have been rejected.
US UAN: Imports and Gulf prices
500 800

450

700

400

600

Price left axis

Price $ps ton Nola
350 500

300

400

250

300

200

Imports bars right axis

200

150

100

100

US UAN imports were 275,000t in March bringing the 9-month total to 2.345m. tonnes, 5% down on July 2010-March 2011. For further details of The Profercy Nitrogen Report contact: fertilizers@profercy.com or go to www.profercy.com

Profercy UK: E-mail fertilizers@profercy.com Tel: +44 1372 386205

'000 m tonnes