1

ISyE 2028A Midterm 1

June 06 2009

Name :

GT ID Number :

1. This exam is a closed book and notes. You may only use one page of cheat sheet and tables. However, during the exam, it is not allowed to share a cheat sheet and tables. 2. You may use a calculator. However, during the exam, it is not allowed to share a calculator. 3. There are ve problems totalling 100 points. Show all work to receive full credit. 4. Please read and sign the honor code statement.

Honor Code I pledge my honor that : I have completed all problems on the exam on my own; I have not used any unauthorized materials while completing and preparing for this exam; and I have not given anyone else access to my exam. Honor Code Signature

2 1. (20 points) 10 Samples are given: 1 4 7 5 8 8 10 6 2 9 (a) (3 points) Calculate Sample mean (Sol) 1 + 4 + 7 + 5 + 8 + 8 + 10 + 6 + 2 + 9 X= =6 10

(b) (3 points) Calculate Sample variance (Sol) S2 = 1 n1 = 8.8889 (Xi 6)2

(c) (3 points) Calculate Median (Sol) Median = 6.5 (d) (3 points) Calculate Mode (Sol) Mode = 8 (e) (8 points) Draw boxplot (Specify each value) (Sol) Minimim=1,Q1=4,Q3=8,Maximum=10

10 9 8 7 Values 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 Column Number

3 2. (20 points) A manufacturer of car batteries guarantees that his batteries will last 3 years with a standard deviation of 1 year. Six of these batteries have standard deviation as 0.479 years. Can we conclude that batteries have a standard deviation less than or equal to 1? (n 1)S 2 (Sol) Use n1 2 P ( 2 > 1) = P ( = = = = 1 < 1) 2 (n 1)S 2 < (n 1)S 2 ) P( 2 P (n1 < (n 1)S 2 ) P (5 < 5 0.4792 ) P (5 < 1.1472) 0.05

The probability that 2 is larger than 1 is 0.05. Therefore, we can conclude that standard deviation is less than or equal to 1.

4 3. (20 points) Consider the following measurements of the heat producing capacity of the coal produced by two mines

M ine 1 M ine 2

: :

5250, 6420 6120, 5620, 5590, 6000, 5620

Sample variance is 684,450 for Mine 1 and 62,700 for Mine 2. Can it be concluded that the two population variances are equal? Find probability that variance of Mine 1 is less than variance of Mine 2. (Sol) Use
2 2 2 S1 Fn1 1,n2 1 2 2 1 S2 2 2 ) 2 1 2 2 2 2 S1 S1 P( 2 < 2 2) S2 1 S2 684, 450 P( < F1,4 ) 62, 700 P (10.9163 < F1,4 ) P (10.9163 < t2 ) 4 P (t4 > 3.3040) + P (3.3040 > t4 ) 2 0.0149 0.0298

2 2 P (1 < 2 ) = P (1 <

= = = = = = =

The probability that Mine 1s variance is less than Mine 2s variance is 0.0298. Therefore we cannot conclude that two variances are equal.

5 4. (20 points) (True / False) questions. If answer is False,please explain the reason (a) (4 points) t1 = t (Sol) True

(b) (4 points)Prediction Interval gives more precise interval estimate than Condence Interval (Sol) False. Since Prediction Interval is always wider than Condence Interval, Condence Interval gives more precise estimate than Prediction Interval.

2 2 (c) (4 points)If Condence Interval for 1 /2 is {1 , 2 }, then Condence Interval 2 2 for 2 /1 is {2 , 1 } 2 2 1 S1 S1 (Sol) False. Condence Interval for , 2 f/2 (v2 , v1 )} is { 2 S2 f/2 (v1 , v2 ) S2 1 S2 S2 2 2 , 2 f/2 (v1 , v2 )}. and Condence Interval for 2 /1 is { 2 2 2 S1 f/2 (v2 , v1 ) S1 2 2 1 /2 2 S1 1 S2 = 2 f/2 (v1 , v2 ) 2 2 S2 f/2 (v1 , v2 ) S1 2 S1 S2 1 f/2 (v2 , v1 ) = 2 2 2 S2 S1 f/2 (v2 , v1 )

(d) (4 points)If we fail to reject H0 : John is innocent, then we cannot conclude John is innocent. (Sol) True

(e) (4 points) For a xed sample size, decreaing Type I error leads to an decrease in power. (Sol) False. Decreasing makes increasing . Therefore power which is 1- is decreasing.

6 5. (20 points) In a random sample of n=500 families owning television sets in the city of Atlanta,GA, it is found that x = 340 subscribed to HBO. (a) (10 points) Find a 95% condence interval for the actual proportion of families in this city who subscribe to HBO. (Sol) Use estimate p = 340 = 0.68. 500 95% Condence Interval for p is : pq pq , p + z/2 } n n 0.68 0.32 = {0.68 1.96 , 0.68 + 1.96 500 = {0.64, 0.72}

CI = { z/2 p

0.68 0.32 } 500

(b) (10 points) How large a sample is required if we want to be 95% condent that out estimate of p is within 0.02? (Sol) Use n =
2 z/2 pq

e2 n= 1.962 0.68 0.32 = 2089.8 0.022

So, at least 2090 samples are needed to get error less than 0.02.