Strategic assessment of international rice research priorities: projecting what IRRI and partners can achieve for the

poor and the environment in Asia

D. Raitzer, A. Dobermann, S. Mohanty, A. Nelson, A. Ismail, B. Bouman, S. Savary, and many other IRRI scientists
IRRI is conducting a systematic priority assessment to identify where the greatest potential for rice research to benefit the Asian poor lies, and what specific areas of research can contribute. This assessment uses participatory, structured, and quantitative approaches to obtain estimates of economic, poverty, health, and environmental benefits per dollar of investment in potential research areas. Component analyses include mapping of rice agroecologies, assessment of projected yield gaps under future conditions, and disaggregation of yield gaps by biotic syndrome, abiotic stress, and management factors. This is complemented by assessments of the potential of 60 research solutions to reduce gap magnitude and improve yield potential. For each problem area and target environment, scientists identified potential research product solutions, their probabilities of scientific success, associated resource requirements, likely on-farm productivity and environmental effects, counterfactual availability without IRRI research, and expected adoption profiles over time.

Fig. 2. Logistic diffusion curves and approach to attribution of IRRI research contributions.

Welfare changes are further disaggregated to reflect effects on producers and consumers under different poverty lines, considering variations in poverty over space and projected over time. Changes in labor demand resulting from technologies are used to estimate effects on agricultural wages and labor supplier welfare. Increases in rice consumption resulting from reductions in equilibrium rice prices are used to estimate reductions in hunger, and changes in projected hunger-associated DALYs (Disability Affected Life Years) of disease burden. Area consequences of price reductions are used to assess land use and environmental implications. Patterns of expected impacts are compared with current resource allocation to guide the future research priorities of IRRI and partners.

Fig. 1. Yield gaps projected for rainfed and irrigated rice fields in Asia in 2035.

Using more than 20 household survey data sets, these parameters are translated into supply shifts based on output and average cost effects for 210 regions of Asia over 24 years for each of the 60 research solutions. The supply shifts, along with patterns of self-consumption of rice, are used to estimate equilibrium price effects, as well as consumer and producer welfare changes.

Fig. 3. Economic surplus framework of research-induced supply shift under a nonlinear supply curve with constant elasticity and a positive shutdown price.