Center for the Study of New Media and Society

Twitter and the Russian Street Memes, Networks & Mobilization

CNMS Working Paper 2012/1

May 2012 Moscow

Samuel A. Greene

Twitter and the Russian Street: Memes, Networks & Mobilization This paper reviews the role played by online social media in political mobilization during Russias turbulent 2011-2012 election season. Focusing in particular on Twitter during the March 2012 presidential elections and subsequent protests, the study constructs oppositional, pro-government and neutral meme distribution networks, reviews the dynamic and structural characteristics and draws early conclusions about the ways in which competing mobilizational groups used Twitter during the period of contention. Samuel A. Greene, Center for the Study of New Media & Society, New Economic School, Moscow

Center for the Study of New Media & Society The New Economic School 47 Nakhimovsky Prospect, Suite 1918 117418 Moscow +7 495 956 9508 newmedia@nes.ru http://www.newmediacenter.ru http://www.nes.ru

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Twitter and the Russian Street

Memes, Networks & Mobilization

Introduction
What role have online social media played in political mobilization in Russias turbulent election season? This question has captured the attention of political scientists, sociologists and media and communications scholars since election-related protests first broke out in December 2011. While it has been fairly clearly demonstrated that on-line social media including the use of blog platforms such as LiveJournal, microblogging platforms such as Twitter and social-network systems such as Facebook and VKontakte played a significant role in mobilization (and counter-mobilization), both as a means of communication and of community-building, the specific content of this role has yet to be sufficiently explored. 1

This paper contributes to that effort by beginning to unpack the role played by one social media system in particular Twitter during a period of peak political contestation, namely the Russian presidential election held on March 4, 2012 and the pro- and anti-government protests that ensued on the following day. Interrogating a database of more than 11,000 Twitter messages sent by more than 8,500 users during that period, the Center for the Study of New Media & Society asks how Twitter was actually used by contestants on both sides, how the structure of the contesting communities shaped the patterns of communication (and vice versa), and whether those structures differ across political dividing lines. A first cut at the data is presented in this paper reaches three key conclusions: First, Twitter performs multiple functions simultaneously and at differing stages of mobilization, including:

, . - ? 20 000 . Basilisklab, http://basilisklab.com/boloto-analis-posetitelei.html; Greene, Samuel. The End of Virtuality. Center for the Study of New Media & Society. http://www.newmediacenter.ru/2012/01/18/the-endof-virtuality/

In some ways, this work calls into question the findings of other researchers, who have approached similar issues in Russia from different directions. In particular, our findings somewhat contradict those of Gleb Suvorov, from Basilisk Labs, who argues based on data on the structure of communities in Facebook and VKontake that the protest mobilizations in March were not protests, but flashmobs of atomized, largely unconnected citizens 3; this paper finds a relatively high degree of organization. Second, this paper, in finding that opposition memes dominate the Twitter landscape during the period of the study, differs from recent survey work by Ted Gerber, who finds no significant correlation between political opinion and online social media usage. 4 However, none of these differences, which will be discussed in more detail towards the end of this paper, are irreconcilable; instead, they should be seen as opportunities for further investigation.

This research, we hope, contributes to the growing body of analysis on the role played by online social media in the recent Russian political mobilization and, perhaps, more broadly. In particular, it adds a more dynamic, event-case element to research recently published by the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard University, Mapping Russian Twitter, which draws on data from 2010 and 2011 to draw static, stable clusters of communities in Twitter. 2 In some ways, this report refines the Berkman findings about the fairly discrete structure of politically opposing Twitter networks in Russia and begins to address the need, identified in that report, to enhance our understanding of the structural flow of ideas in this medium.

As an aggregator of information, ideas and memes relevant to the mobilization effort; o As a broadcast medium to spread aggregated information, ideas and memes to a broader audience; o As an echo chamber that may help reinforce group solidarity and adherence to aggregated memes; Second, the contesting political camps display significantly differing social structures: o The opposition networks are relatively more diverse and dispersed than those of their pro-government opponents, are well linked with media outlets that enjoy a significant Twitter presence, and, in part as a result, dominate the Twitter landscape during the period in question; o The pro-government networks are relatively more concentrated, have more intensive communication along established channels, and place heavier emphasis on formal role-players rather than informal participants; Third, throughout the Twitter landscape during the period in question, a key role is played by professional journalists and media outlets, full-time bloggers, and established civic groups, NGOs and political organizations, while the impact of informal tweeters or accidental tweets appears minimal. o

Kelly, John, Vladimir Barash, Karina Alexanyan, Bruce Etling, Robert Faris, Urs Gasser and John Palfrey. Mapping Russian Twitter. Berkman Center Research Publication No. 2012-3. Cambridge, MA: Berkman Center for Internet & Society, Harvard University, 2012. http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/node/7537 3 , . . Slon.ru, 20 March 2012. http://slon.ru/russia/obshchestvo_anonimnykh_revolyutsionerov-765700.xhtml 4 , . . Slon.ru, 07 March 2012. http://slon.ru/russia/polzovateli_interneta_menshe_lyubyat_putina_i_stalina-762175.xhtml

Methodology
For the purposes of this analysis, we collected a database of 11,113 tweets from a total of 8,565 unique accounts, the vast majority of which (99.84%) were sent during the period from 4-6 March 2012. (Due to the nature of the search algorithm, a small number of tweets fell outside this period; the earliest was sent at 12:23 Moscow time on 28 February 2012, and the latest was sent at 08:54 Moscow time on 6 March 2012.) The data collection began from the identification of popular memes either keywords or Twitter hashtags that were clearly and uniquely associated either with the March 4 presidential election or with the ensuing pro- and anti-government demonstrations; from there, we employed a simple snowballing technique, identifying other hashtags and keywords contained in the initial data grabs and searching tweets containing those memes, until all memes delivering significant results had been captured; in all, 14 memes were captured, including nine hashtags and five keywords. Each search resulted in a data grab of all tweets containing the search term sent by the most recent 1,000 accounts to use the term. (Grabs were thus smaller in instances where fewer than 1,000 accounts had ever used the term.)

Each data grab generated a meme network of user accounts and tweets containing the relevant search term, including the text of the tweet itself, the user name of the originator, whether and by whom the tweet was re-distributed, and the timing of all relevant activity. Presented here, in Figure 1, are three very basic metrics on each meme network: the number of tweets, the number of tweeters, and the connectivity quotient (simply the percent of total tweets in the network that are re-distributed at least once by another user). 5 (The full data, including a list the top 5 tweeters, 6 ranked by in-degree, or the number of other users re-distributing their tweets, are presented in Appendix I.) The memes were then divided into three broad categories, based on whether their use a priori identifies a tweet as belonging to either to the opposition or pro-Kremlin discourse; those that do not carry an a priori connotation were defined as neutral. 7 The resulting composite meme networks, presented in Figure 2, vary greatly in size, with the largest by far being the network of neutral memes, followed by the network of opposition memes, and then the network of proKremlin memes. (Again, the full data are presented in Appendix II.)

The connectivity quotient is a shorthand heuristic used for the purposes of this paper as a simple measure of the amount of socialness in each meme network; as such, it reflects the portion of people in the network whose communication who communicated directly with others in the network, although it says nothing about the intensity or nature of that communication. 6 The Top 5 Tweeters are presented purely for the purpose of illustration. There is no inherent statistical significance to the number and, in fact, their relative centrality in their respective networks varies greatly from one meme to another. 7 It should be emphasized here that, in referring to these memes as neutral, I am making no judgment whatsoever regarding the perceived and received meaning of the communication involved, or the political orientation of the producers and recipients of that communication. Rather, it is an a priori label, indicating the fact that the word or words involved do not carry an inherent political connotation that would immediately align the communicator with one political camp or another.

Figure 1: Individual Meme Network Statistics

1800 1600 1400 50,00% 1200 1000 800 600 20,00% 400 200 0 10,00% 40,00% Number of Tweets Connectivity Quotient Number of Tweeters 70,00%

60,00%

30,00%

0,00%

There are certain significant limitations to the method described above, which clearly circumscribe our ability to analyze the resulting data. The first set of limitations concerns the data-collection process itself and centers around the fact that we cannot be assured that we have collected all of the relevant tweets and accounts. This is because of the potential for human error in selecting the sample of memes (Twitter, at the time the data was collected, did not provide aggregate data on meme popularity in Russia), as well as the fact that the software used and Twitters own limitations on automated searches meant that each search was limited to no more than 1,000 user accounts. The second set of limitations concerns the nature of the resulting data, and mainly the fact that common network metrics including various measures of centrality cannot be compared in a straightforward manner across networks of varying structure and size. In further analysis, some of this can be overcome through the use of more sophisticated methods than are presented here; for the sake of this paper, we have simply compared the a priori composite networks of opposition, Kremlin and neutral memes as sub-components of the whole network to give some feel for the ways in which those networks may differ.

As a result of these limitations it is important to underscore that we do not present the reader with a complete and comprehensive picture of all relevant activity on Twitter, nor of the underlying social structure that informs communication on political issues in Russia via Twitter or any other medium. We do believe, however, that we are able to explore broad patterns and identify important questions for further research. 4

Figure 2: Composite Meme Network Statistics

12000 50,00% 45,00% 10000 40,00% 35,00% Vertices (Tweeters) Edges (Tweets) Connectivity Quotient 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 4000 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0 Opposition Memes Kremlin Memes Neutral Memes All Memes 0,00%

8000

6000

2000

The Data
As per the methodology described above, in the beginning was the meme, and the meme was a word. In generating the database, we began with Twitter hashtags keywords or phrases preceded by a #, which allow Twitter users to follow a particular topic of interest that could clearly be associated with the events in question, namely the March 4 elections and the competing rallies on March 5. Thus, for the elections, these were # 8 and #2012 9, as well as #4 10. In addition, to allow for the fact that many relevant messages may not include hashtags, we performed keyword searches on the terms 11, 12, 13, and 14. For the rallies, the relevant search terms were #5 15, # 16, # 17, # and
8 9

elections Elections2012 10 4march 11 putin 12 UIK, the Russian acronym for polling station 13 Carousel, a term used to denote the organized bussing of fraudulent voters to multiple polling stations 14 Ballot-box stuffing 15 5march

Tweets about the election which, by and large, were sent on election day itself, or early on the following day divide broadly into two categories: those that use a priori neutral memes, and those that use a priori oppositional memes. There are very few election-related tweets that employ clearly pro-government memes, which in and of itself is an important finding. That is not to say, however, that pro-government sources, including mass media sources, were not tweeting about the elections. Three of the most popular election-related memes #4, # and # 2012 were dominated by Kremlin-linked media outlets, including Interfax in the former two cases and the RIA group (Russia Today TV and RIANovosti) in the latter one. In most of these cases, however, the connectivity quotient is considerably lower than for the database as a whole, and the bulk of the re-distribution of memes that does occur emanates from a relatively small number of large-scale sources (with television personality Tina Kandelaki joining the major, state-backed mainstream media organizations named above).
16 17

Meme networks including both individual meme networks and composite meme networks have a standard structure, with a core of more or less densely connected vertices (representing individual Twitter accounts) linked together by Tweets that reference one another, surrounded by a cloud of unconnected nodes who, at least in the dataset as collected, have no connections with any other users in the set. This structure does not differ from one meme or meme group to another. These networks do differ, however, in the relative size of the connected core versus that of the disconnected orbit. In some networks, this connected core is quite large, making up as much as 65.8% of total nodes in the case of #, while in others it is extremely small, making up 14.8% in the case of # or even 0.01% in the case of #. This figure, which I refer to as the connection quotient, is 41.4% for the entire database, with opposition memes coming in at a higher figure (47.1%) and pro-government memes at a lower figure (33.4%), and neutral memes very close to the aggregate (40.7%). The relative meaning of these differences will be explored further in this paper. Suffice it for now to note, however, that the connectivity quotient itself says nothing about the nature of those connections: their diversity and intensity are also important to understanding the impact that such connections have on social relations, mobilization and other outcomes. Tweeting the Election

The resulting meme networks and composite networks differ, of course, in size, but are bounded at the upper end by software limitations, which allow the collection of network data on no more than 1,000 users per search term. Most of the individual meme networks thus cluster at or near this size, although some are considerably smaller. This size differential carries over to the composite networks as well, due both to the size of the underlying meme networks and the number of memes associated with each composite meme group.

# 18. Finally, two memes cut across both the elections and the rallies: #19, associated (ironically and satirically) with the opposition, and # 20, associated with the pro-government camp, as well as , mentioned earlier, which is neutral. Structure & Connectivity

rally Pushkinskaya, the name of the square where the opposition rally was held 18 Manezhka and Manezhnaya, interchangeable names of the square where the pro-government rally was held 19 Stability 20 For Putin

Opposition-minded tweeters, including both formal and informal proponents of the opposition and the anti-government protest movement that emerged in December 2011, dominated Twitter communication that could be characterized as more targeted and instrumental. This includes most prominently tweets involving the keyword , the Russian acronym for polling station, the vast majority of which involved allegations of fraud at one station or another, and many of which included links to videos or pictures providing evidence for those allegations. Similarly popular were tweets involving the work , denoting the bussing of repeat voters from station to station. In both cases, top originators included prominent bloggers accounts, such as @adagamov, @mvelmakin, @solomonhaykin and @drandin, alongside election monitoring initiatives including Liga Izbirateley and Rosvybory, plus on-line media sites sympathetic to the opposition, including TV Rain. Here, levels of connectivity were also below those of the database as a whole, but higher than those of the broader election-related memes mentioned above. Tweeting the Rallies Almost as soon as the election results were announced, attention turned to the rallies planned for March 5. The opposition was scheduled to gather on Pushkinskaya Square, while the government organized a counter-demonstration on Manezhnaya Square. Communication on Twitter reflects this shift, as use of election-related memes drops off, and use of others builds. Here, too, the data can be sliced in various ways.

As above, the memes can be divided into those that are a priori neutral (such as #5 or #), and those that are more clearly associated with one camp or the other (such as # on one side or # on the other). As in the case of the elections, the differences along this dividing line are stark. In particular, the role of professional journalism outlets shifts. Outlets such as Glavportal, Vedomosti, The New Times, Russky Reporter, Public Post and others are dominant both in the neutral meme networks and the opposition meme networks, but are almost absent on the pro-government side. Pro-government meme networks, in turn, are dominated during the rallies by those linked directly to the regime: United Russias official Twitter feed, plus United Russia parliamentarians Vladimir Burmatoff and full-time Kremlin-sympathetic bloggers, including @aragorn28, @eugenechigir and others.

A different way of slicing the data, however, divides memes into those that are generic informative memes i.e., hashtags that simply mark the tweet as having something to do with the rally and those that carry a mobilizational message. In particular, the opposition coalesced on March 5 around #, which translates to stability and was used to satirize the regimes political message: typical tweets would refer to actions of the riot police, broken bones and other unpleasantries as indications of how the Kremlin, evidently, defined stability. On the other side, the mobilizational meme was #, translating simply to For Putin. Both of these memes display a much higher level of connectivity (63.6% for #, 65.8% for #) than the more generic memes or the database as a whole. Both were also driven by the concentrated efforts of a few formal players: in the case of the opposition, the online news source Lenta.ru and the blogger @zhgun, and United Russia and Burmatoff in the case of the regime.

Analysis

Taking a step up in aggregation from the individual meme networks to the composite networks of the three meme groupings oppositional, pro-government and neutral allows us, hopefully, to 7

identify larger-scale patterns and underlying structures. As mentioned before, all three composite networks bear the same underlying structure, with a connected core and a disconnected free orbit. Reviewing the three networks in turn helps uncover some of the differences. The Opposition Meme Network

The opposition meme network, as a subset of the general database, includes 3,366 tweets sent by 3,037 individual accounts and has a connection quotient of 47.1%, significantly above the average for the sample as a whole. Its connected core is remarkably large and complex, dominated by @lentaruofficial (the Twitter feed of the popular news website Lenta.ru), but with strong roles played by other media outlets (The New times and TV Rain), oppositional civic groups (Rosvybory, Liga Izbirateley and others), and independent bloggers (@mvelmakin, @zhgun, @solomonhaykin, @drandin and others). Its complex and chaotic core (see Figure 1) includes numerous interlinkages and bridges, and the largest connected component includes 932 nodes, or 30.7% of all of the users in the network. Figure 3: Opposition Meme Network

Notably, Figure 3 also illustrates that most of the edges which represents tweets by one user mentioning another have low weights (represented by the thickness of the edge). 21 This indicates a diversity of sources and communication, as each individual seems to consume and re-distribute information from a multitude of different sources, and most of the top tweeters are connected through long pathways with most of the others. An important exception is the Twitter feed of the news website Glavportal, whose interlocutors do not communicate with the rest of the network; indeed, filtering out all nodes with one or fewer edges removes the rather large Glavportal cluster from the network entirely. (The full network maps are presented in the Appendices to this paper.) The Kremlin Meme Network By contrast, the Kremlin meme network, apart from being smaller (1,876 tweets by 1,536 accounts), is also considerably less dense and connected (33.4% connection quotient). It is heavily dominated by State Duma Deputy Vladimir Burmatoff (@burmatoff), who in turn has key relationships with a small number of re-distributors (@monomakh34, @mantsur, @n28vova and others); Duma Deputy Robert Shlegel and the official United Russia Twitter feed also play notable but demonstrably secondary roles as meme distributors (see Figure 4). Figure 4: Kremlin Meme Network

Edge thickness is a standard metric in social networks, reflecting the relative intensity of communication between each pair of nodes.

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Finally, the neutral meme network is by far the largest, with 6,896 tweets by 5,188 accounts, with a connection component of 40.7% (see Figure 5). It is in many ways similar to the opposition meme network, with a complex core of numerous interconnected components (with the same caveat about the strangely unconnected Glavportal component). Given what we have seen earlier regarding the opposition dominance of a priori neutral memes, this is perhaps unsurprising. But the network also includes some meme distributors such as Interfax and Tina Kandelaki that have large clusters but are poorly connected with the rest of the network. The largest connected component nonetheless includes 27.7% of nodes, or 1,436 accounts. Figure 5: Neutral Meme Network

Indicatively, the edges in the core of the Kremlin network are considerably heavier (thicker) than in the opposition network, indicating more formalized and/or routinized channels of meme distribution and a higher degree of centralization, consistent with the use of Twitter as a broadcast and coordination mechanism, rather than as a forum with a strong social interaction function. The networks largest connected component, meanwhile, is smaller than that of the opposition network, including 324 nodes, or 21.1% of the networks members. The Neutral Meme Network

Interestingly, it is within this neutral network that some ostensibly influential opposition online actors such as Alexey Navalny and Liga Izbirateley show up, virtually for the first time, although with relatively small clusters. In the case of Navalny, this appears to be a result of the fact that he does not generally use hashtags and thus entered the database primarily through key-word searchers, which in turn are concentrated in the neutral meme category; it may also be a result of the fact that, on March 5, his level of involvement with the rally prevented him from being an active 10

The fact that oppositional content dominates the neutral meme network is in itself and important finding and serves to highlight something that could easily be misunderstood. The neutrality of the memes, as mentioned before, does not refer to the intentionality of the communication or communicators involved; indeed, the content of the neutral meme network is anything but neutral. But it is important to remember that Twitter is a mass-communication system, with elements of broadcast media, meaning that more people are likely to see any given Tweet than are likely to produce one. Thus, neutrality in this case is defined from the perspective of such a passive reader: if the reader is oppositionally minded and interested in the events of March 4-6, (s)he may have searched for all Tweets containing, say, #, a hashtag clearly associated with the opposition; conversely, if (s)he was well disposed to the Kremlin, (s)he may have searched for all Tweets containing #. But if (s)he was undecided or simply wanted to know what was happening, (s)he may have searched for #, a hashtag linked to the elections that carries no group attachment in and of itself. It is thus all the more significant to note that the bulk of what that neutral or curious Twitter reader would have encountered was oppositional. Dueling Memes The contrast between the opposition and pro-government meme networks comes into sharper focus in Figure 6. For the purposes of this comparison, a composite network was drawn of the opposition and Kremlin memes, and all nodes with fewer than two connections to other nodes were filtered out of the map for the sake of clarity and visibility. Figure 6: Dueling Meme Networks

tweeter. As for Liga Izbirateley (the League of Voters, an independent election monitoring group set up after the December parliamentary vote), their relative (though not complete) marginality in the network may reflect the importance of organizational infrastructure and established networks for the effective use of Twitter as a mass communication tool.

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On the face of it, two clear camps emerge, with very different underlying structures. The opposition is led by a relatively loose coalition of bloggers (@mvelmakin, @navalny, @vorewig, @drandin, @solomonhaykin, @zhgun), media outlets (The New Times, TV Rain, Russian Reporter) and civic groups (Rosvybory). There are numerous long pathways and cross-linkages (note, in particular, the degree to which the networks of @rosvybory and @mvelmakin duplicate each other), while the weight of each edge is low. The other side is dominated by a single tweeter, @burmatoff, whose network is close-knit and coherent but not diversified and is characterized by heavy or thick edges, representing repeated communication between the same individual accounts. Between the two camps would appear to be the news website Lenta.Ru (@lentaruofficial), acting as a bridge and mediator. On closer inspection, however, this does not turn out to be the case. Rather, Lenta.Ru, as we have seen earlier, was a key distributor of opposition memes, particularly the important mobilizational meme #, while the real bridges between the two camps are several nodes located between @lentaruofficial and @burmatoff on the map. The resulting picture, then, is one of a diversified opposition with complex and fluid networks squaring off against a more cohesive, concentrated and hierarchical pro-government network.

Discussion & Conclusions

The role that online social media such as Twitter can and do play in mobilization and political contention is itself highly contested and, in many ways, susceptible to the minutiae of research design and methodological predilection. Almost all of the fundamental aspects of each study the geographic, technological and temporal parameters of what is being studied and how data are collected and manipulated, to say nothing of the specifics of the questions ask often differ from one investigation to the next to such a degree that the results are difficult to compare. Generalizing results from one study to a broader context should be attempted only with the greatest of caution.

That said, some broad patterns appear evident, among which are the following:

This paper represents a first, tentative exploration of data on the use of Twitter during two and a half contentious days of Russian politics in March. As such, it bears no direct relevance to the use of Twitter in other contexts, whether topical, geographic or temporal, or to the use of other online social media platforms. Due to the nature of the data and the process by which they were collected, we must also be careful in generalizing our conclusions even to the level of the broader social groups whose interactions we have attempted to observe here. The use of Twitter as a social media tool varies, even within a brief period, greatly, from one group to another and one situation to another. In some cases, particularly involving the use of mobilizational memes during the rally phase of the March 4-6 period, Twitter clearly acted as a broadcast medium, in line with much of what has been written about Twitter in the academic literature. However, the use of Twitter took on a much more dispersed and interactive character during the election phase, when the emphasis was on collecting and aggregating information on what was happening during the voting process, including evidence of fraud. Moreover, the transition, particularly within opposition networks, from more dispersed to more concentrated communication over time suggests a process by 12

Despite all of the qualifications and caveats made above, regarding the ability to compare these findings to those of others, a close reading of these findings and those presented by colleagues studying the same general series of events raises important questions and contradictions. This most clearly arises regarding the work on Facebook and VKontakte done by Gleb Suvorov and colleagues at Basilisk Labs, who find that, The protest movement has no structure or hierarchy. There are leaders and masses, and between them only a yawning gap. Each oppositional individual is in that gap. They are individualists, who do not need likeminded thinkers. Out of 20,000 participants, 8,000 have no friends who were on Bolotnaya. Each oppositional individual committed a solitary act of expression of dissatisfaction by going out into the streets. Alone. And he came back alone.

which information is collected, aggregated, processed and then re-broadcast for mobilizational purposes. It is also noteworthy that the emphasis within the pro-government networks is more heavily on broadcast. 22 There are marked differences in the underlying social structures of the pro- and antigovernment online mobilization networks. The latter are demonstrably more diverse and more fluid as represented by the multiplicity of weaker ties while the former display a greater degree of hierarchy, concentration and institutionalization. This is consistent with the Berkman Centers research on Twitter, although it is somewhat at odds with their research on the structure of blog networks. More fundamentally, however, it is consistent with broader sociological research on social movements and networks, most notably with Granovetters classic work on The Strength of Weak Ties. 23 Throughout all the networks explored here, professionals whether professional journalists, politicians, bloggers or activists play far and away the most important role in the production and re-distribution of communication via Twitter. Again, this is consistent with much of the existing literature on Twitter in other contexts. But it also underscores both the importance of infrastructure and resources even in using ostensibly costless and democratizing online resources, as well as the fact that the Russian opposition does apparently enjoy the support of a robust professional media network.

Leaving aside the rather glaring conceptual problem of equating on-line and off-line protest populations, this conclusion would seem to reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of social networks in general and protest networks in particular. The finding of at least 8,000 connected nodes within a universe of 20,000 individuals or, in the terms used in this paper, a connectivity quotient of 40%, more or less in line with the Twitter networks explored here is actually a remarkably high degree of connectivity, and significantly higher than we would expect to find in a randomized social network of the same size. Moreover, at what is still an early stage in a protest movement with an uncertain future, it is unreasonable to expect a higher degree of solidarity (even if we make the leap of equating connectivity with solidarity) than we currently see. A greater challenge is posed by the work of Ted Gerber, in his study of electronic political engagement in Russia, conducted through traditional polling techniques. Gerbers broad findings particularly of an increase new media use for political communication after the December 2011 Duma elections are not in contradiction to those presented here. However, his finding that on-line presence, both in terms of online social networking and Internet-based information seeking, is
This diversity of Twitter usage is in line with findings in the comparative literature on Twitter communication; cf. Dann, Stephen. Twitter content classification, First Monday, 2010, 15(12). 23 Granovetter, Mark S. The Strength of Weak Ties, American Journal of Sociology, 1973, 78(6): 1360-1380.
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The answer likely comes down to reporting, particularly self-reporting by survey respondents, and underscores the need for multi-method research. The data we present here obviously do not allow us to draw conclusions about the place of Twitter communication in Russia as a whole, and we can surmise that Twitter users are not representative of Russia at large. Unfortunately, Gerbers poll did not ask a question specifically about Twitter usage, which would have provided some reference point; absent that, we are left with data from Yandex, which reports that there are some 3.03 million Twitter users in Russia, a significant number, to be sure, but one about which we know almost nothing in detail. 25 Polling data such as Gerbers meanwhile, do not allow us to draw any conclusions about what people are actually doing on line. Until we make that connection and have much larger and more complex datasets, we need to be extremely careful in arguing cause and effect. Indeed, this paper makes no causal claims whatsoever: while we believe we have some idea of how and what people were communicating on Twitter March 4-6, and we can draw tentative conclusions as to why, we cannot extrapolate from that into an argument about whether Twitter made the protests larger, for example. And, in fact, studies of online social media and mass mobilization in other times and places suggest that such causal links are far from clear-cut. In the UK, for example, the Reading the Riots research team found that peaks in riot-related Twitter activity followed, rather than preceded, activity in the streets perhaps not surprising, given that much communication tends to be reactive, but complicating any argument that Twitter was instrumental in bringing people out into the streets. 26 Moreover, as Navid Hassanpour demonstrates, Hosni Mubaraks abrupt removal of on-line media from the mobilizational equation in Egypt accomplished by simply turning off access to the Internet actually led to more mobilization, not less. 27

It should be remembered, of course, that we are working with very different data sets. Gerber polls a representative sample of 2,403 Russians before and after the elections, in 46 regions, while this report limits itself to those who actually communicated about politics on Twitter during the March 4-6 period clearly a self-selecting sample. But this still does not resolve the contradiction: if there is no clear tendency for on-line Russians to be oppositional, then why do they dominate in our networks?

generally not associated with political views would seem to be at odds with our finding that oppositional communication dominates the Twitter space during the period of contestation. 24

Thus, whatever answers are suggested by this paper, it points to even more questions for further investigation. In many respects, we echo the Berkman Centers call for the systematic comparison of online communication across platforms, including blogs and networking sites; to this we would add multimedia sharing sites and the forums of established online news sites. To that we would add the need to combine on-line research with rigorous off-line approaches, including both large- and small-N studies. Within the framework of our own existing and growing database, we recognize the importance of content analysis, including semantic and sentiment analysis, as well as link analysis. If we are truly to understand how and why social media are used in mobilization, we must combine this research with more sophisticated (and better theorized) qualitative and quantitative social research.
, . . Slon.ru, 07 March 2012. http://slon.ru/russia/polzovateli_interneta_menshe_lyubyat_putina_i_stalina-762175.xhtml 25 http://blogs.yandex.ru/ 26 http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/interactive/2011/aug/24/riots-twitter-traffic-interactive 27 Hassanpour, Navid. Media Disruption Exacerbates Revolutionary Unrest: Evidence from Mubaraks Natural Experiment, presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, 2011.
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Appendix I: Individual Meme Networks

Meme # #2012 #4 #5 # # # # # Number of Tweets 1456 1349 1114 1492 1513 1445 1319 1205 160 1163 1457 1589 1459 Number of Tweeters Neutral Memes 857 775 935 1000 895 1000 1002 Opposition Memes 1000 119 1000 1000 Kremlin Memes 433 1000 Connectivity Quotient 14.84% 27.72% 16.89% 35.52% 41.18% 51.63% 52.69% 31.29% 33.75% 40.41% 63.62% 65.76% 0.01% Top 5 Tweeters @interfax_news @tokyohatsu @vmysila @zalezaka @volya_naroda @rt_russian @riapress @47shots @alexeyhm @golosameriki @dlindele @navalny @insider_chat @inosmi @userdie @adagamov @ligaizbirateley @osha_kot @kozlovsky @olevskiy @interfax_news @tina_kandelaki @zachistievybory @you_reporter @alyasha_alyasha @glavportal @vissevald @zghu2010 @vedomostilive @vitaswift @glavportal @ladyguri @narod_protiv_er @vitaswift @kurginyanru @rosvybory @mvelmakin @solomonhaykin @drandin @tvrain @letmefashion @zapyatoy @viktor_bad @yrasunrise @bajiek_ @glavportal @the_newtimes @vova_moskva @russianreporter @public__post @lentaruofficial @zhgun @vorewig @fleurklin @fontanka_spb @burmatoff @er_novosti @gattarov @mantsur @sadreeff @c1rcool

187

134

36.90%

@leisha_xoroshij @ftzwxz @vitaly_russia @pknsht @aragorn28 @eufaraday @c1rcool @eugenechigir @d00h

Appendix II: Composite Meme Networks

Vertices (Tweeters) Edges (Tweets) Self Loops Connection Quotient Top 10 Tweeters Opposition Memes 3037 3366 1780 47.12% @lentaruofficial @glavportal @rosvybory @mvelmakin @the_newtimes @zhgun @solomonhaykin @drandin @tvrain @vova_moskva Kremlin Memes 1536 1876 1250 33.37% Neutral Memes 5188 6896 4091 40.68% 8565 11113 6516 41.37% @lentaruofficial @glavportal @ladyguri @interfax_news @vissevald @burmatoff @tina_kandelaki @rosvybory @adagamov @mvelmakin All Memes

@burmatoff @er_novosti @mantsur @gattarov @sadreeff @aragorn28 @monomakh34 @shlegel @kirillschitov @n28vova

@glavportal @ladyguri @interfax_news @vissevald @tina_kandelaki @adagamov @ligaizbirateley @dlindele @zachiestievybori @navalny

Appendix III: Opposition Meme Networks

p4olki

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radisnlav25 megoshin luckyeugenia alexeylysykh pavelnovac technisto iwantshortnick karpovich_tanya olegbelk0 orelaa elenaratushnaya _opanchenko kasatoww ipuffa corpsebride111 beatmakerkulon mgeorgez tukanet67 maxtaksi mrartemst not_pretend salty_1970 96malinka96 altynaibazilova rockywinning ibar70 anyakucher armmragedonn teledus raisatkurbanova stigfromsouth lalapolya lox_ya orden_feniksa cus_cusa neuklyuzfhij anarcho_news oldframer caustikk kolpakot tqfxmz poskermastera svesh87 klinkinm mechtatelsal lex_ermilov mad_lone_person kir0san gawser vlladgim anjik1987 dmitryi007 sobesednik9 zaba_zaba prettypiegirl a_hayrapetyan lazercore surrealisticeye makariev97 soboleva_zina chub_ilya remosweb by_drum kissmyba syrosygsikev sofia749 amra1993 pacirfist_1988 sogkarina adamantus3 brashevetsmisha dimkaravaev gara_go_go 2medvedev ecfooreclea rus1966 kbshnik nandspigarap qloko seregaaaaa cretforsoftvfa energo_laz durdendaria buromio abdraev ichsuchdieddr inaumov egiev a1v5 russsl hukutabjieatb hashmahash sablerom iellenuri kucherenka romich_kot aleksamaltseva amodaru milkofuck richie_tozier valzynka ruvewida solidiz radiance_girl svetlanka1978 rickyhoover crazy_banan_ pfouslina karapuzzz13wanesmaxtrim megazoll matala02 yuvelir_fans ilia_obraztsov mercurytau r_i_o1995 smartxejrox narek001 bangyby madhatter94_y cth_bolda mrgramazza inok_monk aniatkach elenalip star0dub ansimova psychomantlt mapzqsfulmer victor_swan seitzz elenaoreilly paevchik bloorgard angel_sixx_6 ____london____ finnik22 alexmikhashchuk tanuaknuazeva 4irikova piska_14 swleska arizona_dreams ivan_astahov olya97_97 dudzinvalerybagisbekov creo_solamente kp_star feelgood095 sulmar215 ymka12totyafler fordcoppola1 ain92ru olegpolikarpov 812op vitaslob visual_pk dim_van_real deuss_vrn troksa vardanka egorych_rf kprf_live kris17031994 daria_kis dokbarboskin rooliana ayratmiftakhov personal_idiot applesashaa alesa98 knopkax007 igorberkut shkoda23 sadiell lozovaia viktorkulikov aleksei81 wasiafuse yuro4eg cloneik m_shteyn niuckolay_r ru_pirateparty hemtiv just_jay_black _reznikova_ isaakme rome_girl tomatoesholy maxmixa all_changes kuanov_yury kkursor lyubapumpkin natatort osv723 fzastolnyy _zalinka_ fizikyaderwik ladik13 alfa250388mcromanoakabeez darja1998 albertrussia overrdoser uberkatze sezarik nakaulitz15 martin_fedor nekij_a chyzek dmitriy_renua artemq_cryosis ugly_animal fan_fmoot georgeshklianik kberseneva bce_takoe deni_veselov riq363 my_boonjics_spb87 itcsbp oldschoolsr alin_kka m_team_lover habibrahmanov annapirtan irinishna dimamedwedew karsserg rejvan_goxblin maxkidman kinorezhisser alexxlawyer andrei96 mryuriyivanov happyevricka tsvigun04 de_tl imkorolev real_naumov aya___uk c0mp0s1te dhoncharenko beliebernastya 4evermanics rsmike svetka96 elina175 dushka707 errnestino montina_ru nadin239 oqajagy revolverom alena684 marisoul1 onemorewhiskey kirillsudarev zemlyanoff zaurgazdarov badgercatclod_vandal leoderoko son_filinpapenko dzhamalutdinov yanabounty vova_vanes jeymay markedo21 mukhtaramirov timursluzk nastya83ns makseest alekscock parcellacia butgalina ndrevolt demoskvitin i_need_future rikof1963 parazit3k hypgnossis feedsticesgu katvasileva should_go woljf gusevsa pogumirskiy hhahaahah rykov lucky_928 shainogina2008varfey lerchikonline ffuuugor antonmegaherz sasha_fiveg aidatumasheva e_kolt 4spr3der coollertmb zhumadilov solomonstorm urzhumtsevvladimirzakh fulltimechiller dagnichka mamyashev sashayakovlev bagiraworld oxanaoleinik muamuamaria maklerzin sugueva realgeniy sperryvorobey xlevkin eoynthegreat jamesjojoblack mrsmth dkrok seryakkk lilmike_mgnzvenislawa overestimated_ korobkov atk_91 sar_vybory2012 devil_and_me valerianesina serjionner ystru 0ronaldinho amurzinov akotijap ivanenko_nasti 0x3f00 muskat_fox vadinsar ru_zastupnik igor20004 evgenyzinoviev zeresetjuliascherbet cymudezu tretya_siska mosesibnmoses nastyacollinz bjambaklac l_gordienko keepsilentlu zamkadniy evgeniakurs alexeylesha alexei_hartmann natvoe blofelds_cat arinek ialex1970 kalesik leonidvolkov merservlad teoriss cruscqhohemisc perfectcat1 ruslanrudenko katerollinz rusak90 tiseyko nvpavel skyinmyeyes_ allcatsarecute alfix4 talslrhe zaitsvolk engelgarde whitestupidman lowssesfile artemmilakov zhekas devilandangelad vush095 sdthaking dudino90alohasurfers nx_74205 gooff xardover murzilka3105 allexere ssppkenny mhayskra maksnomer1 unzchaya l13tl3 goldmandennis putinbv ryamovaa evg7o belosnewka polumrak pulamaw katrin_b_ laralarkin egorodet slash_boyts ilya_sam copyrajtinlg pelimen1 alice_on_land bozify darkvasyak alphapank topatoshka dim_mono firstow zzzhanna lucititova sharonovmisha immelstorun ktotoneja zloybublik margo_korn stanislav_gr baryshnikov_i zoro555777 madegirah oleg_kozyrev blykho lucyzorina bor35 keqnipgsberg anastasia_glad bpaxzzo dmitrykislykh papageno24 bistrova_1996 decembrist_ elenkaminus conspirologorgir_inactivo chebburashka88 ru_gurbanov devo4ka_e follow_b_otbet wolf_su nick_tayl bumblebeesha dangercous_boy lenutka flakgunner noszezemz 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gkates nickalleye lotatek airbear007 koroleone ave_muravieva patreg ritsakoritsa smysh77 gretsz_ml vestovojw7678 atom57 mmanlregd sergey_skipin schofinoatndir lamat_news kjgip archi37a arkxange_lfrol dwhkth drryazgov rybamchki opuvekow khoroshevskaya kristinakocc crazznzy_mag air_svetlana etroitskiy seoatom ruscracker sofo4ka nomiaw dicentcyda duusechka gijyban stasi_bacardi vaxohozuj usurunif vajgach i_kalina arkhipovka _3667684332702 qentadeep vudyhenogo pravomolodih iselaaguadardd cexawan itahycy shockwaves_ua mrgensec maqrorgolder zzmhkm gebeumheroqq asravaen16 diana_amba mirsuljan aserp22 mono4ka92 romr4ik92 piichugin mamemoiresale ogocoqe mxr_krabster molonya komarovaanna deimos1976 extravalex summer_hurtley prounn magassist blhood_lenny poveliteluma a_nelesheypa uljajmat riderhelp adriaan49 xarper dr_wize fuebuculm yduhasakaj valdar_kamzdil il4 langbebelti upuqixi repin_ilya mr_azi xcomrainespho ivanchernousov irachelseasmile vl_samoylenko blue_gsay eghostsuper qugodyrifi 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Appendix IV: Kremlin Meme Network

natagkabaranova klonk_136 rtetwtywgqwgw zeromcool_zz

alecsgeyyy mnekaz freemanr_xxx nhoizersr stez3455nisly

turpji piikoqut radisnlav25 dzyliak pchedl

aleix_ivamoto csydto befenmarggansna sxtesen extazzy_dyeh kwlerk1981 begazytafgik live_is_ksin denis_dolganocv

bactalevaleksei rtuahr boba_akao_eugen gserman_gott pkazumasa_is zhits_galimo mr_saslhka guodknife dimoib vadikbogdanov cptekg rakitylya olyam_roterman showx_2009 sabshadmb alhavardo cowboy757q7 serafim_n777 grinechka fflaresky fnkqhk yoursmki yplvfo

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sasphopmitfo jer0nym0 krotizs zshesht sundupova93 palamer2344kar

hyogiharp io_noptwoc_ioi

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black_wnemo iamsinichkin

adriaan49 macquectuma veorshckov psjihoidus

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pjsidz rjaneair23

dmitry_kirienko

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dizmaxiz

ivankaanna coacpaftapzi greenfield_ rezhirm

santa200i606 neuklyuzfhij opeqotyke lenorehesdseppq ilchlfqow gdumqa

shamean1996pawiel_iwanov sumemersii opasnee_voalka cordewlltee

jejvj dqkqvizpe olegvasen xan_rbaf

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cchi4ikuku

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mr_kaerdxolder jepnonomn

fayt_2006 zvgsc

fhs_ruliot smsulow amkusxqa

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ostaryj_goblin

catb1ack

gojspel81

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romio199p1

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