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ENT DE
M
T
R
FE
D E PA
NSE
UN
T A
IC
E R
I
D E
ST M
AT E S O F A
ANNUAL REPORT
TO CONGRESS
Military and Security Developments
Involving the Peoples Republic of China 2012
May 2012
Office of the Secretary of Defense
Preparation of this report cost the Department of Defense approximately $85,000 during the 2012 fiscal year.
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
THE PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA (PRC) bilities which appear designed to enable anti-access/
is pursuing a long-term, comprehensive military mod- area-denial (A2/AD) missions, or what PLA strategists
ernization program designed to improve the capacity refer to as counter intervention operations. The PLA
of Chinas armed forces to fight and win local wars also continued to demonstrate improved capabilities in
under conditions of informatization, or high-intensity, advanced fighter aircraft, as evidenced by the inaugural
information-centric regional military operations of flight testing of the J-20 stealth fighter; limited power
short duration. Chinas leaders view modernization projection, with the launch of Chinas first aircraft
of the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) as an carrier for sea trials; integrated air defenses; under-
essential component of their strategy to take advan- sea warfare; nuclear deterrence and strategic strike;
tage of what they perceive to be a window of strategic improved command and control; and more sophisti-
opportunity to advance Chinas national development cated training and exercises across Chinas air, naval,
during the first two decades of the 21st century. Dur- and land forces.
ing this period, Chinas leaders are placing a priority
Underscoring the extent to which Chinas leaders are
on fostering a positive external environment to provide
increasingly looking to the PLA to perform missions
the PRC with the strategic space to focus on economic
that go beyond Chinas immediate territorial concerns,
growth and development. At the same time, Chinese
over the past year the PLA deployed assets to sup-
leaders seek to maintain peace and stability along their
port non-combatant evacuation operations from Libya,
countrys periphery, expand their diplomatic influence to
extended its presence in the Gulf of Aden for a third
facilitate access to markets, capital, and resources, and
year of counterpiracy operations, took on leadership
avoid direct confrontation with the United States and
roles in United Nations peace operations, and con-
other countries. This strategy has led to an expansion of
ducted medical exchanges and a service mission to Latin
Chinas presence in regions all over the world, creating
America and the Caribbean using the PLA Navys
new and expanding economic and diplomatic interests.
hospital ship.
As these interests have grown, and as China has
During their January 2011 summit, President Barack
assumed new roles and responsibilities in the inter-
Obama and Chinas President Hu Jintao committed
national community, Chinas military modernization
to work together to build a cooperative partnership
is, to an increasing extent, focusing on investments in
based on mutual respect and mutual benefit. Within
military capabilities that would enable Chinas armed
that framework, the U.S. Department of Defense
forces to conduct a wide range of missions, including
seeks to build a military-to-military relationship with
those farther from China. Even as the PLA is contend-
China that is healthy, stable, reliable, and continuous.
ing with this growing array of missions, preparing for
Strengthening the U.S.-China military-to-military
contingencies in the Taiwan Strait remains the principal
relationship is a part of shaping Chinas choices by
focus and driver of much of Chinas military invest-
encouraging it to cooperate with the United States and
ment. In this context, over the past year, the PLA con-
its allies and partners in the delivery of international
tinued to build the capabilities and develop the doctrine
public goods, including in such endeavors as counter-
it considers necessary to deter Taiwan from declaring
piracy, international peacekeeping, and humanitarian
independence; to deter, delay, and deny effective U.S.
assistance and disaster relief operations. As the United
intervention in a potential cross-Strait conflict; and to
States builds a stronger foundation for a military-to-
defeat Taiwan forces in the event of hostilities.
military relationship with China, it also will continue
To support the PLAs expanding set of roles and mis- to monitor Chinas evolving military strategy, doctrine,
sions, Chinas leaders in 2011 sustained investment in and force development. In concert with Allies and
advanced cruise missiles, short and medium range con- partners, the United States will continue adapting its iv
ventional ballistic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, forces, posture, and operational concepts to maintain a
counterpace weapons, and military cyberspace capa- stable and secure Asia-Pacific security environment.
Contents
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
vi
1
Chinese Military Strategy
And Doctrine
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
the island from asserting its sovereignty; deter, embedded in active defense emphasize using
disrupt, or deny effective third-party (includ- precise and well-timed offensive operations,
ing U.S.) intervention in a potential cross-Strait gaining and retaining the initiative, attacking
conflict; and defeat Taiwan forces in the event only under favorable conditions, and exploiting
of hostilities. an opponents most vulnerable weaknesses.
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Chinas expanding national interests and adopt ruary 2011, the second PLA officer to assume
a larger role in promoting international peace such a position commanded the UN Peacekeep-
and security. The non-war operations associ- ing Force in Cyprus. As of December 2011,
ated with these missions include counter-piracy China had more than 1,850 military personnel
and counter-terrorism operations, humanitar- and observers deployed to 10 of the UNs 15
ian assistance and disaster relief (HA/DR), UN peacekeeping missions.
peacekeeping, sea lanes protection, and securing
From late October through November 2011, the
space-based assets.
PLA Navys ANWEI-class Peace Ark hospital
In 2011, the PLA participated in various non- ship conducted a medical exchange and ser-
war operations. Among them, in February- vice mission, including stops in Cuba, Jamaica,
March 2011, China evacuated approximately Trinidad and Tobago, and Costa Rica.
36,000 Chinese nationals from Libya during the
In November 2011, Chinas Ministry of
uprisings against Muammar Gaddafi. Though
National Defense co-chaired (with Vietnam) the
the majority of evacuees were moved via com-
first ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus
mercial aircraft, ships, and buses, the guided
(ADMM+) Experts Working Group meet-
missile frigate Xuzhou and four IL-76 transport
ing on HA/DR - one of five topics selected
aircraft were also involved.
for enhanced regional collaboration by defense
In April 2011, the first PLA officer (a major ministers at the (ADMM+) in October 2010.
general) to be appointed as military leader of a
In December 2011, the PLA Navy deployed its
UN Peacekeeping Force completed a three-and-
tenth task force to the Gulf of Aden in support
one-half-year assignment with the UN Mission
of ongoing international counter-piracy efforts.
for the Referendum in Western Sahara. In Feb-
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2
Force Modernization
Goals And Trends
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
The PLA Air Force is currently in the begin- als, in 2012. The carrier will initially serve as a
ning stages of developing ballistic missile training platform for fixed-wing aircraft and as
defenses and the air-space integration needed an additional asset for helicopter-borne HA/DR
for early warning. China continued to modern- operations, until its full fixed-wing air regiment
ize its ground-based air defense forces with the achieves operational capability in several years.
introduction of a new medium-range surface-
MissilesSecond Artillery Corps. The PLA
to-air missile (SAM) system in 2011. Current
Second Artillery Corps is modernizing its short-
and future air defense systems development
range ballistic missile force by fielding advanced
emphasizes multi-target engagement capability,
variants with improved ranges and payloads. It
net-centric operations, survivability, and robust
is also acquiring and fielding greater numbers
electronic protection.
of conventional medium-range ballistic missiles
Naval Forces. The PLA Navy primarily focuses (MRBMs) to increase the range at which it can
on improving anti-air and anti-surface warfare conduct precision strikes against land targets
capabilities, as well as developing a credible and naval ships, including aircraft carriers,
at-sea nuclear deterrent. The additional attack operating far from Chinas shores beyond the
submarines, multi-mission surface combatants, first island chain. Similarly, China continues
and fourth-generation naval aircraft entering to produce large numbers of advanced ground-
the force are designed to achieve sea superior- launched cruise missiles capable of standoff,
ity within the first island chain and counter precision strikes. By 2015, China will also field
any potential third party intervention in a additional road-mobile DF-31A (CSS-10 Mod
Taiwan conflict. China is also developing a 2) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
near-continuous at-sea strategic deterrent with and enhanced, silo-based DF-5 (CSS-4)
the JIN-class SSBN program. The JIN-class ICBMs. The PLA Second Artillery Corps faces
SSBN was built as a follow-on to Chinas first several challenges in its force structure, includ-
generation XIA-class SSBN. The PLA Navy ing integrating both new and planned systems.
is also acquiring ships capable of supporting
Ground Forces. Along with other branches
conventional military operations and HA/DR
of the PLA, Chinas large ground force is
missions, including several amphibious transport
undergoing significant modernization, and has
docks and the ANWEI-class (Peace Ark) hospi-
steadily improved capabilities in most areas.
tal ship. The PLA Navy will likely commission
In mid-2011, the PLA began to transform
the KUZNETSOV-class (formerly the Varyag)
its ground forces into a modular combined
aircraft carrier, currently undergoing sea tri-
arms brigade-focused force structure. The
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
PLA fielded new rotary wing aviation assets C4ISR Capabilities. Acquiring comprehensive
in 2011, with the initial fielding of a new, command, control, communication, comput-
domestically-produced attack helicopter, the ers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnais-
Z-10, as well as major growth in the number sance (C4ISR) systems is a key component of
of multi-purpose helicopters in army aviation Chinas military modernization and is essential
units across the force. As 2011 ended, numerous for executing integrated joint operations. The
indicators pointed to the start of an expansion PLA is focused on developing C4ISR systems
of the majority of army special forces units. An that will allow the military to share informa-
improved amphibious assault vehicle has also tion and intelligence data, enhance battle-
entered service in key PLA units. field awareness, and integrate and command
military forces across the strategic, campaign,
Throughout the PLA, growing numbers of
and tactical levels. A fully integrated C4ISR
modern heavy-armor, long-range strike artil-
system, as envisioned by PLA leaders, would
lery, and increased-range air defense weapons
enable the PLA to respond to complex battle-
have entered service in selected units. Concur-
field conditions with a high level of agility and
rent with this modernization, the ground force
synchronization. To accomplish that vision,
has emphasized combined arms operations and
the PLA will need to overcome deficiencies
long-range mobility. Chinas ground forces
in system integration and interservice coordi-
remain challenged by a lack of combat experi-
nation. Nevertheless, improvements in these
ence and self-identified limitations in the leader-
systems will continue to enhance PLA battle-
ship abilities of its command staff, particularly
field awareness and lead to greater integration
at operational levels. These problems have long
among the separate PLA services.
been exacerbated by a lack of realism in train-
ing. However, the PLA began executing plans Space and Counterspace Capabilities. In the
in 2011 designed to help overcome these issues space domain, China is expanding its space-
by 2020, including increased force-on-force based surveillance, reconnaissance, navigation,
training against dedicated opposing force units, meteorological, and communications satellite
adopting simulator use for training, develop- constellations. China continues to build the Bei-
ing automated command tools to aid command Dou (Compass) navigation satellite constellation
decisions, and increasing the education levels with the goal of establishing a regional net-
and science and technology training of PLA work by the end of 2012 and a global network
commanders and staff officers. by 2020. China launched the Tiangong space
station module in September 2011 and a second
communications relay satellite (the Tianlian
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
1B), which will enable near real-time transfer around the world continued to be targets of intru-
of data to ground stations from manned space sions and data theft, many of which originated
capsules or orbiting satellites. China continues within China. Although some of the targeted
to develop the Long March V rocket, which will systems were U.S. government-owned, others
more than double the size of the low Earth and were commercial networks owned by private
geosynchronous orbit payloads that China will companies whose stolen data represents valuable
be capable of placing into orbit. In parallel, the intellectual property. In the hands of overseas
PRC is developing a multidimensional program competitors, this information could dimin-
to limit or deny the use of space-based assets ish commercial and technological advantages
by adversaries during times of crisis or conflict. earned through years of hard work and invest-
In addition to the direct-ascent anti-satellite ment. Intrusions in 2011 occurred in key sectors,
weapon tested in 2007, these counterspace capa- including companies that directly support U.S.
bilities also include jamming, laser, microwave, defense programs.
and cyber weapons. Over the past two years,
Authoritative writings and Chinas persis-
China has also conducted increasingly complex
tent cyber intrusions indicates the likelihood
close proximity operations between satellites
that Beijing is using cyber network operations
while offering little in the way of transparency
(CNOs) as a tool to collect strategic intelligence.
or explanation.
In parallel with its military preparations, China
Chinas space and counterspace programs are
has increased diplomatic engagement and advo-
facing some challenges in systems reliability.
cacy in multilateral and international forums
Communications satellites using Chinas stan-
where cyber issues are discussed and debated.
dard satellite launch platform, the DFH-4, have
Beijings agenda is frequently in line with Rus-
experienced failures leading to reduced lifespan
sias efforts to promote cyber norms under a UN
or loss of the satellite. The recent surge in the
framework. In September 2011, China and Rus-
number of Chinas space launches also may be
sia were the primary sponsors of an Informa-
taking its toll. In August 2011, in the third
tion Security Code of Conduct that would have
satellite launch in seven days for China, a Long
governments exercise sovereign authority over
March 2C rocket (carrying an experimental
the flow of information in cyberspace. China
Shijian 11 satellite), malfunctioned after liftoff
has not yet accepted that existing mechanisms
and failed to deliver the satellite into orbit.
(such as the Law of Armed Conflict), apply in
Cyber Espionage and Cyberwarfare Capabili- cyberspace. However, Chinas thinking in this
ties. In 2011, computer networks and systems
9
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
area may evolve as its own exposure increases Espionage. Chinese actors are the worlds most
through greater investment in global networks. active and persistent perpetrators of economic
espionage. Chinese attempts to collect U.S.
Technology Transfer, Strategic Trade Policy,
technological and economic information will
and Military Modernization. The PRC contin-
continue at a high level and will represent a
ues to modernize its military by incorporating
growing and persistent threat to U.S. economic
Western (mostly U.S.) dual-use technologies,
security. The nature of the cyber threat will
which have also assisted its overall indigenous
evolve with continuing technological advances
industrial, military industrial, and high-technol-
in the global information environment.
ogy sector development.
Sensitive U.S. economic information and tech-
One of the PRCs stated national security objec-
nology are targeted by intelligence services, pri-
tives is to leverage legally and illegally acquired
vate sector companies, academic/research institu-
dual-use and military-related technologies to its
tions, and citizens of dozens of countries. China
advantage. China has a long history of coopera-
is likely to remain an aggressive and capable
tion between its civilian and military sectors and
collector of sensitive U.S. economic information
openly espouses the need to exploit civilian tech-
and technologies, particularly in cyberspace.
nologies for use in its military modernization.
Civil-Military Integration. Chinas defense
In this context, the cumulative effect of U.S.
industry has benefited from Chinas rapidly
dual-use technology transfers to China could
expanding civilian economy, particularly its
also make a substantial material contribution
science and technology sector. Access to foreign
to its military capabilities. For example, inter-
advanced dual-use technology assists Chinas
actions with Western aviation manufacturing
civilian economic integration into the global pro-
firms may also inadvertently provide benefit to
duction and research and development (R&D)
Chinas defense aviation industry.
chain. For example, with increasing globaliza-
Through its advisory role within the U.S. export tion and integration of information technolo-
control process, DoD will continue to identify gies, companies such as Huawei, Datang, and
and mitigate risk, and seek to prevent critical Zhongxing, with their ties to the PRC govern-
advanced technologies exports to China that ment and PLA entities, pose potential challenges
could be diverted to unauthorized end-use or to in the blurring lines between commercial and
third-country end-users of concern, or contrib- government/military-associated entities.
ute to overall modernization of Chinas military
and defense industrial base.
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3
Military-To-Military
Contacts
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
4
The PRCs
Taiwan Strategy
15
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
that Beijing views as provocative. Beijing strives The Taiwan question is related to the reuni-
to integrate the two economies, advance social fication and territorial integrity of China.
and cultural ties, strengthen outreach to Tai- It concerns the core interests of China and
touches on the national sentiment of 1.3 bil-
wans ruling Kuomintang Party, isolate Taiwan
lion Chinese people....On the Taiwan ques-
political actors that take pro-independence posi- tion, we pursue the fundamental guideline of
tions, and emphasize its preference for achieving peaceful reunification, and one country, two
peaceful unification all while maintaining a systems. [But] we will absolutely not allow
fundamental opposition to Taiwan indepen- Taiwan to be separated from China and will
dence or any initiative that would undermine its definitely make no promise to give up the use
one China principle. of force.
Since President Mas election in Taiwan, the Beijing has made clear (through words and
two sides have largely maintained an unof- military actions) that it seeks to deter Taiwan
ficial diplomatic truce in the competition to from taking any steps toward independence. The
persuade countries usually through economic military component of Beijings Taiwan strat-
incentives to switch diplomatic recognition egy is an integral part of this. Beijing appears
from Beijing to Taipei, or vice versa. Beijing has prepared to defer the use of force as long as it
taken small, but important steps to demonstrate believes unification remains possible and the
its tacit consent to the truce, including dropping costs of conflict outweigh the benefits, but it
its long-standing opposition to Taiwan being almost certainly views the prospect of using
granted observer status at the World Health force as an important point of leverage in cross-
Assembly and refraining from courting El Strait relations.
Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes, who has Taiwan has taken a number of steps to address
expressed publicly a desire to switch ties from gaps in military capabilities, such as expanding
Taipei to Beijing. its defense industrial base, beginning a transi-
Although the mainlands focus is on sustaining tion to an all-volunteer force, and strengthen-
positive momentum in cross-Strait relations, ing its noncommissioned officer corps. These
Beijing has never renounced the use of force to improvements have only partially addressed
compel unification. In his December 2010 essay, Taiwans eroding defense advantages and, in
State Councilor Dai Bingguo captured the cen- some cases, face significant challenges in imple-
tral leaderships policy on Taiwan: mentation. Taiwans domestic priorities and
other considerations compete with its armed
forces for resources and funding. Consequently,
17
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
the cross-Strait military balance in terms of > Failing that, delay intervention and seek
personnel, force structure, weapons, and devel- victory in an overpowering, limited, quick
opments in military doctrine continues to war; or,
trend in Beijings favor. > Fight to a standstill and pursue a political
Cross-Strait Military Options settlement after achieving a set of limited
goals that could be credibly sold to the PRC
A comprehensive and sustained military mod- public as a victory.
ernization program has increased the range and
sophistication of military options Beijing could Maritime Quarantine or Blockade. Although
employ in a cross-Strait conflict. The PLA still a traditional maritime quarantine or blockade
faces limitations in its ability to conduct a full- would have a short-term impact on Taiwan,
scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan. However, such an operation would significantly tax
the PLAs growing capabilities have enhanced PLA Navy capabilities. PRC military writ-
its ability to strike economic and military targets ings describe alternative solutions, including
on Taiwan, while expanding its ability to deter, air blockades, missile attacks, and mining to
delay, or deny possible intervention by third par- obstruct ports and approaches. Beijing could
ties during cross-Strait hostilities (Appendix IV, declare that ships en route to Taiwan must stop
Figures 2 and 3). in mainland ports for inspection prior to transit-
ing to Taiwan. Beijing could also attempt the
Should Beijing decide to use military force equivalent of a blockade by declaring exercise
against Taiwan, it is possible the PLA would or missile closure areas in approaches to ports,
mobilize forces in a manner that optimizes effectively closing port access and diverting mer-
preparation in favor of tactical surprise, with the chant traffic. There is a risk that Beijing would
goal of forcing rapid military and/or political underestimate the degree to which an attempt to
resolution before other countries could respond. limit maritime traffic to and from Taiwan would
If a quick resolution is not possible, Beijing trigger international pressure and military
would be likely to seek to: escalation. Currently, the PRC probably could
> Deter U.S. intervention by highlighting not enforce a full military blockade, particularly
the potential cost to the United States and in the face of third party intervention. However,
targeting the resolve of the U.S. public and its ability to execute a blockade will improve
leadership; steadily through 2020.
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Limited Force or Coercive Options. Beijing coastline, and launch attacks to seize and occupy
might use a variety of disruptive, punitive, or key targets and/or the entire island.
lethal military actions in a limited campaign
The PLA is capable of accomplishing vari-
against Taiwan, likely in conjunction with overt
ous amphibious operations short of a full-scale
and clandestine economic and political activi-
invasion of Taiwan. With few overt military
ties. Such a campaign could include computer
preparations beyond routine training, the PRC
network or limited kinetic attacks against
could launch an invasion of small, Taiwan-held
Taiwans political, military, and economic infra-
islands such as Pratas Reef or Itu Aba. A PLA
structure to induce fear in Taiwan and degrade
invasion of a medium-sized, defended, offshore
the populaces confidence in their leadership.
island such as Mazu or Jinmen is within the
Similarly, PLA special operations forces could
mainlands capabilities. Such an invasion would
infiltrate Taiwan and conduct attacks against
demonstrate military capability and political
infrastructure or leadership targets.
resolve while achieving tangible territorial gain
Air and Missile Campaign. Limited short- and simultaneously showing some measure
range ballistic missile (SRBM) attacks and of restraint. However, this type of operation
precision strikes against air defense systems (air involves significant operational and strategic
bases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and risk. It could galvanize the Taiwan populace and
communications facilities) could be conducted catalyze a strong international reaction.
in an attempt to degrade Taiwans defenses, neu-
Operationally, large-scale amphibious inva-
tralize Taiwans leadership, or break the publics
sion is one of the most complicated maneuvers
will to fight.
a military can execute. An attempt to invade
Amphibious Invasion. PRC literature describes Taiwan would strain Chinas untested armed
different operational concepts for amphibious forces and invite international condemnation.
invasion. The most prominent of these, the Joint These stresses, combined with the PRCs combat
Island Landing Campaign, envisions a complex force attrition and the complexity of urban
operation relying on coordinated, interlocking warfare and counterinsurgency (assuming a suc-
campaigns for logistics, air and naval support, cessful landing and breakout), make amphibious
and electronic warfare. The objective would be invasion of Taiwan a significant political and
to break through or circumvent shore defenses, military risk. Taiwans investments to harden
establish and build a beachhead, transport infrastructure and strengthen defensive capa-
personnel and materiel to designated landing bilities could also decrease Beijings ability to
sites in the north and south of Taiwans western achieve its objectives
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Consistent with a near-term focus on Taiwan Strait contingencies, China bases many of
its most advanced systems in the military regions (MRs) opposite Taiwan. Although China
could employ these capabilities for a variety of regional crisis or conflict scenarios, China has
made less progress on capabilities that extend global reach or power projection. Outside of
peacetime counter-piracy missions, for example, the PLA Navy has little operational experi-
ence beyond regional waters. Although the PLAs new roles and missions in the international
domain, like counter-piracy, reflect Chinas expanding set of interests, regional contingencies
continue to dominate resources and planning (Appendix IV, Figure 5).
The PLA is acquiring large numbers of highly accurate, domestically built cruise missiles,
and has previously acquired large numbers of Russian ones. These include the domesti-
cally produced, ground-launched CJ-10 land-attack cruise missile (LACM); the domestically
produced ground- and ship-launched YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM); the Russian
SS-N-22/SUNBURN supersonic ASCM, which is fitted on Chinas SOVREMENNY-class guid-
ed missile destroyers; and the Russian SS-N-27B/SIZZLER supersonic ASCM on Chinas
Russian-built KILO-class diesel-powered attack submarines.
By October 2011, the PLA had deployed between 1,000 and 1,200 SRBM to units opposite
Taiwan. In the past year, China has fielded new SRBM systems, added additional missile
brigades in southeastern China, and upgraded the lethality of its existing SRBM force by
introducing variants with improved ranges, accuracies, and payloads.
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
During comments to the media in 2011, China confirmed it is developing an anti-ship bal-
listic missile (ASBM), based on a variant of the DF-21 (CSS-5) medium-range ballistic mis-
sile (MRBM). Known as the DF-21D (CSS-5 Mod 5), this missile is intended to provide the
PLA the capability to attack large ships, particularly aircraft carriers, in the western Pacific
Ocean. The assessed range of the DF-21D exceeds 1,500 km, and the missile is armed with
a maneuverable warhead.
Naval Forces. Since the 1990s, the PLA Navy has transformed from a large fleet of single-
mission platforms to a leaner force equipped with more modern, multi-mission platforms. In
contrast to the fleet of just a decade ago, many PLA Navy combatants are equipped with
advanced area air-defense systems, modern ASCMs, and torpedoes. These capabilities not
only increase the lethality of PLA Navy platforms, particularly in the area of anti-surface war-
fare, but also enable them to operate beyond the range of land-based air cover.
The PLA Navy possesses some 79 principal surface combatants (destroyers and frigates),
50 submarines, 51 amphibious and medium landing ships, and 86 missile-equipped patrol
craft. The PLA Navy has now completed construction of a major naval base at Yalong, on
the southernmost tip of Hainan Island. The base is large enough to accommodate a mix of
nuclear-powered attack and ballistic-missile submarines and advanced surface combatants,
including aircraft carriers. Submarine tunnel facilities at the base could also enable deploy-
ments from this facility with reduced risk of detection.
Chinas aircraft carrier research and development program includes renovation of the
KUZNETSOV-class aircraft carrier Hull 2 (formerly the Varyag), which began sea trials in 2011.
It will likely serve initially as a training and evaluation platform. Once China deploys aircraft
capable of operating from a carrier, it should offer a limited capability for carrier-based air
operations. Some components of Chinas first indigenously-produced carrier may already be
under construction; that carrier could achieve operational capability after 2015. China likely
will build multiple aircraft carriers and associated support ships over the next decade.
China currently has a land-based training program for carrier pilots; however, it will still take
several additional years for China to achieve a minimal level of combat capability for its air-
craft carriers.
The PLA Navy is improving its long-range surveillance capability with sky-wave and surface-
wave over-the-horizon (OTH) radars. In combination with early-warning aircraft, unmanned
aerial vehicles (UAVs), and other surveillance and reconnaissance equipment, the radars
allow China to carry out surveillance and reconnaissance over the western Pacific. These
radars can be used in conjunction with reconnaissance satellites to locate targets at great
22
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Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
distances from China, thereby supporting long-range precision strikes, including employment
of ASBMs.
China has developed torpedo and mine systems capable of area denial in a Taiwan scenario.
Estimates of Chinas naval mine inventory exceed 50,000 mines, with many more capable
systems developed in the past 10 years.
China is producing a new class of nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). The
JIN-class SSBN (Type-094) will eventually carry the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile
with an estimated range of some 7,400km. The JIN-class SSBN and the JL-2 will give the PLA
Navy its first credible sea-based nuclear capability. The JL-2 program has faced repeated
delays, but may reach initial operating capability within the next two years.
China has expanded its force of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). Two second-
generation SHANG-class (Type-093) SSNs are already in service and as many as five third-
generation SSNs will be added in the coming years. When complete, the new class of SSNs
will incorporate better quieting technology, improving Chinas capability to conduct a range of
missions from surveillance to the interdiction of surface vessels with torpedoes and ASCMs.
The current mainstay of modern diesel powered attack submarines (SS) in the PLA Navy
submarine force are the 13 SONG-class (Type-039) units. Each can carry the YJ-82 ASCM.
The follow-on to the SONG is the YUAN-class (a Type-039 variant), as many as four of which
are already in service. The YUAN-class probably includes an air-independent power system.
The SONG, YUAN, SHANG and the still-to-be-deployed new SSN-class all will eventually be
capable of launching a new long-range ASCM.
The PLA Navy has acquired modern, domestically-produced surface combatants. These
include at least two LUYANG II-class (Type-052C) guided missile destroyers (DDG) fitted
with the indigenous HHQ-9 long-range SAM, with additional hulls under construction; two
LUZHOU-class (Type-051C) DDGs equipped with the Russian SA-N-20 long-range SAM; and
at least nine JIANGKAI II-class (Type-054A) guided-missile frigates, fitted with the medium-
range HHQ-16 vertically launched SAM. These ships improve the PLA Navys area air defense
capability significantly, which will be critical as the PLA Navy expands its operations into ar-
eas beyond the range of shore-based air defense.
23
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Air and Air Defense Forces. China bases approximately 490 combat aircraft within unrefu-
eled operational range of Taiwan and has the airfield capacity to expand that number by hun-
dreds. Newer and more advanced aircraft make up a growing percentage of the inventory.
The January 2011 flight test of Chinas next-generation fighter prototype, the J-20, highlights
Chinas ambition to produce a fighter aircraft that incorporates stealth attributes, advanced
avionics, and supercruise-capable engines.
China is upgrading its B-6 bomber fleet (originally adapted from the Soviet Tu-16 BADGER)
with a new, longer-range variant that will be armed with a new long-range cruise missile.
The PLA Air Force has continued expanding its inventory of long-range, advanced SAM
systems and now possesses one of the largest such forces in the world. Over the past five
years, China has acquired multiple S-300 battalions, the most advanced SAM system that
Russia exports. It has also introduced the indigenously designed HQ-9.
Chinas aviation industry is developing several types of airborne early warning and control
system (AWACS) aircraft. These include the Y-8 MOTH and the KJ-2000, based on a modi-
fied Russian IL-76 airframe.
Ground Forces. The PLA has about 1.25 million ground force personnel, roughly 400,000 of
whom are based in the three MRs opposite Taiwan. China continues to gradually modern-
ize its large ground force. Much of the observed upgrade activity has occurred in units with
the potential to be involved in a Taiwan contingency. Examples of ground unit modernization
include the Type-99 third-generation main battle tank, a new-generation amphibious assault
vehicle, and a series of multiple rocket launch systems.
Nuclear Forces. Chinas nuclear arsenal currently consists of about 50-75 silo-based,
liquid-fueled and road-mobile, solid-fueled ICBMs. This force is complemented by liquid-fu-
eled, intermediate-range ballistic missiles and road-mobile, solid-fueled MRBMs for regional
deterrence missions. By 2015, Chinas nuclear forces will include additional CSS-10 Mod 2s,
enhanced CSS-4s and likely JL-2s. The first two JIN-class SSBNs are in operational service,
but the associated JL-2 SLBM continues to undergo flight testing. The JIN-class/JL-2 combi-
nation may be operational within the next two years.
China continues work on technologies to counter U.S. and other countries ballistic missile
defense systems as well as development of training and operating procedures that augment
technological developments. Together, they strengthen Chinas nuclear force and enhance
its strategic strike capabilities.
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
The introduction of more mobile systems will create new command and control challenges
for Chinas leadership, which now confronts a different set of variables related to deployment
and release authorities. For example, the PLA Navy has only a limited capacity to commu-
nicate with submarines at sea, and the PLA Navy has no experience in managing an SSBN
fleet that performs strategic patrols with live nuclear warheads mated to missiles. Land-
based mobile missiles may face similar command and control challenges in wartime.
Beijings official policy toward the role of nuclear weapons remains unchanged and focuses
on maintaining a nuclear force structure able to survive an attack and respond with sufficient
strength to inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy. The new generation of mobile mis-
siles is intended to ensure the viability of Chinas strategic deterrent in the face of continued
missile defense advances in the United States and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
Beijings no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy remains unchanged: China will not be the first to
use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstance, and unequivocally commits
that under no circumstances will it use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-
nuclear weapon states or nuclear weapon free zones. There has been no clarification of the
ambiguity regarding the conditions under which Chinas NFU policy might not apply or where
conditional nuclear threats might be permissible.
Beijing will continue to invest considerable resources to maintain a limited nuclear force, also
referred to by some Chinese writers as sufficient and effective, to ensure that the PLA can
deliver a damaging retaliatory nuclear strike response (Appendix IV, Figure 7).
25
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
China Taiwan
Taiwan Strait
Area
(Including Nanjing,
Guangzhou, and
Total Jinan MRs) Total
Group Armies 18 8 3
Mechanized Infantry
Divisions (Including two 8 4 0
amphibious mechanized divisions)
Mechanized Infantry
6 1 3
Brigades
Armor Divisions 9 4 0
Armor Brigades 9 4 4
Artillery Divisions 2 2 0
Artillery Brigades 17 6 5
Note: PLA ground forces are organized into group armies. Most infantry, armor, and artillery units
are organized into a combination of divisions and brigades deployed throughout the PLAs seven
27 MRs. A significant portion of these assets are deployed in the Taiwan Strait area, specifically the
Nanjing, Guangzhou, and Jinan MRs. Taiwan has seven defense commands, three of which have field
armies. Each Army contains an artillery command roughly equivalent to a brigade plus.
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
China Taiwan
East and
South Sea
Total Fleets Total
Destroyers 26 16 4
Frigates 53 44 22
Note: The PLA Navy has the largest force of principal combatants, submarines, and amphibious war-
fare ships in Asia. After years of neglect, the force of missile-armed patrol craft is also growing. In the
event of a major Taiwan conflict, the East and South Sea Fleets would be expected to participate in
direct action against the Taiwan Navy. The North Sea Fleet would be responsible primarily for protect-
ing Beijing and the northern coast, but could provide mission-critical assets to support other fleets.
28
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
China Taiwan
Deployed
Aircraft Total Within Range Total
of Taiwan
Transport 300 40 21
Note: The PLAAF and the PLA Navy have about 2,120 operational combat aircraft. These consist of
air defense and multi-role fighters, ground attack aircraft, fighter-bombers, and bombers. An addi-
tional 1,450 older fighters, bombers and trainers are employed for training and R&D. The two air arms
also possess roughly 300 transports and over 100 surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft with intel-
ligence, surface search, and airborne early warning capabilities. The majority of PLAAF and PLA Navy
aircraft are based in the eastern half of the country. Currently, 490 aircraft could conduct combat
operations against Taiwan without refueling. However, this number could be significantly increased
through any combination of aircraft forward deployment, decreased ordnance loads, or altered mis-
sion profiles.
29
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Lanzhou 26
xxx
xxx SOUTH KOREA
xxx 54
xxx 20
21
47 Jinan xxx
North
12 Sea
JA PA N
xxx xxx
xxx
15 1
13
Nanjing Yellow
Sea
Chengdu xxx
41 xxx
xxx 31
14 xxx
Guangzhou
its
42 TA IWA N
ra
St
an
iw
Ta
VI E TN AM
Philippine Sea
LAO S South China Sea P H I L I P P I N ES
30
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Appendix: 1 2 3 4
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Shenyang
Beijing
Beijing
NORT H KOREA
Bohai
Gulf
S OUT H KOREA
Qingdao North Sea Fleets
dary
3 Nuclear Attack Submarines
Fleet boun 18 Diesel Attack Submarines
Jinan
North 10 Destroyers
Sea 9 Frigates
JAPAN
2 Amphibious Ships
5 Medium Landing Ships
19 Missile Patrol Craft
Dinghai
Yellow
Sea
Nanjing
TAIWAN 16 Destroyers
an
Zhanjiang
iw
44 Frigates
Ta
26 Amphibious Ships
Fle
31
RUSSIA
Chapter 1
K A Z A K H S TA N
MONGOLIA Shenyang
Chapter 2
Shenyang MRAF HQ
K Y RG Y Z S TA N 3x Fighter Division
Beijing
Jinan MRAF HQ 1x Ground Attack Division
Lanzhou 2x Fighter Division NORT H KORE A East Sea
1x Ground Attack Division
SOUT H KORE A
Lanzhou MRAF HQ North Sea Fleet HQ
2x Fighter Division CHINA 1x Fighter Division JAPAN
1x Bomber Division 1x Fighter Bomber Division
Chapter 3
Jinan
Nanjing MRAF HQ
PA K I S TA N 3x Fighter Division
1x Ground Attack Division
1x Bomber Division
Chengdu MRAF HQ
2x Fighter Division
1x Transport Division East Sea Fleet HQ
N EPA L Nanjing
INDIA B H U TA N 1x Fighter Division
Chengdu 1x Fighter Bomber Division
Chapter 4
Guangzhou
Military Region Air Force HQ
B A NG L A D ES H TAIWAN Guangzhou MRAF HQ
PLA Navy Fleet Air Force HQ 4x Fighter Division
BURMA VI E T N A M 1x Bomber Division
Fighter/Ground Attack Division
1x Transport Division
Navy Fighter/Fighter Bomber Division South Sea Fleet HQ
Bomber Division LAOS 2x Fighter Division
Transport Division
Military Region Bay of Bengal
PHIL IPPINES Philippine Sea
Disputed Territory
THAILAND South China Sea
Appendix: 1 2 3 4
CAMBODIA
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
32
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
33
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
34
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Appendix: 1 2 3 4
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
This list includes visits by senior defense officials and chiefs of the armed services. It excludes
visits associated with multilateral military exercises.
*The EUs High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Catherine Ashton, in October
2011 met in Beijing with Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie.
36
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Appendix: 1 2 3 4
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
D Brunei-Malaysia Orders of H
Hanoi
Council boundary (1959)
a
Paracel Islands (2) Scarborough
e
Declared limits: H Reef (4)
S
N H
H China/Taiwan undefined claim (1946) Manila
I Philippine (Kalayaan) Island Group
a
limits (1978)
n
M
i
Islands (3)
t
2nd Artillery
Nanjing
Missile Base
Missile Unit
PLAN
East Sea Fleet
Composite Flotilla 31st Group Army
Destroyer Flotilla
Taiwan
Frigate Flotilla Strait
Landing Ship Flotilla
Submarine Flotilla
TAIWAN
0 100 200 300
Kilometers
38
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OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
CHINA
Taiwan JAPAN
Strait
SA-N020 Naval
SA-N-20 Naval SAM
SAM
TAIWAN
PLA Navy
Destroyer
Kilometers
Figure 3: Taiwan Strait SAM and SRBM Coverage. This map depicts notional coverage
based on the range of land and sea-based missile systems, including advanced SAMs
that China would likely employ in a Taiwan conflict. A single PLA Navy destroyer is used
to illustrate the range of sea-based SAM coverage. Actual air defense coverage would be
non-contiguous and dependent upon precise deployment sites. If deployed near the Taiwan
Strait, the S-300s extended range provides the PLAs SAM force with an offensive capability
against Taiwan aircraft.
39
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
CHINA
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
TAIWAN
First Islan d Ch ain
Philippine Sea
VIETNAM
LAOS
South China Se con d Islan d Ch ain
Sea PHILIPPINES
CAMBODIA GUAM
BRUNEI
PALAU
MALAYSIA
INDONESIA
Figure 4: The First and Second Island Chains. PRC military theorists refer to two
island chains along Chinas maritime perimeter. The First Island Chain includes Taiwan and
the Ryuku Islands, the Second Island Chain extends from Japan to Guam.
40
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Appendix: 1 2 3 4
41
Russia-China Gas Pipelines
68 billion cubic meters/year
Tomsk Tayshet
Tynda
Skovorodino
RUSSIA Russia: 6%
Kazakhstan-China Crude Oil Pipeline
400,000 barrels/day
Kazakhstan: 4% Khabarovsk
KAZAKHSTAN
Bypassing SLOCs.
Atyrau
Daqing
Beyneu
Aqtau Almaty Russia-China Crude Oil Pipeline
300,000 barrels/day Nakhodka
Caspian
Korla
Sea
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Beijing
TURKMENISTAN Russia
Seaborne: 1%
Bitarplyk Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipelines
40 billion cubic meters/year
Kazakhstan-China Gas Pipelines CHINA
10 billion cubic meters/year
Burma-China Crude Oil Pipelines
440,000 barrels/day
Kunming
Sunda Strait: 1%
Americas: 8%
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
CHINA
42
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Appendix: 1 2 3 4
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the Peoples Republic of China
Sout h Sout h
At lant ic Pac ific
Oce an Ocean
SO U TH AM ER I CA
At l a nt i c
Ocean N O RTH AM ER I CA
Pac ific
Ocean
EU R O P E
Sout h
AFRIC A Pac ific
Ocean
CHINA
AU S TR ALI A
Indian
Oce an
System (Range)
43
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DIA-02-1109-276