Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: South China Sea: China Threatens War Carlyle A. Thayer May 15, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] 1.ThetensionsoftheseadisputesoverScarboroughShoalbetweenChinaandThe Philippinesisescalating.Lately,MajorGeneralLuoYuan,deputysecretarygeneralof the China Association for Military Science, through an interview on China.org.cn evensaidthat:wewillabandonthenotionofwaratallcosts.Howdoyouassess theabilityofhavingawarbetweenChinaandThePhilippines? ANSWER: A war between China and the Philippines is improbable. It is more likely that an armed clash will occur through accident or misadventure. Leaders on both sides will move quickly to restore peace. China is using many forms of national power to influence the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal. China wants the Philippines to stand down. China regularly uses the Global Times (English edition) andtheviewsofseniormilitaryfigures,mostprominentlyMajorGeneralLuoYuan, to express bellicose words. These hostile expressions are not the official policy of China.ChinahassofarnotdeployedPeoplesLiberationArmyNavyshipstoconfront the Philippines. The current standoff is an entirely civilian affair between the PhilippinesCoastGuardandtwoChinesecivilianagencies,ChinaMarineSurveillance andFisheryLawEnforcementComand. 2.HowUSAwouldbehaveincaseofwar? ANSWER:TheUShasatreatyobligationtoconsultwiththePhilippinesinthecaseof an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the Parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific or on its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific. The United States would detect any Chinese preparations for war at an early stage and would likely warn the Chinese of the consequences.Warisunlikely,butifaChinesemilitaryshipattackedthePhilippines without provocation the US would assist the Philippines with diplomatic support, providingmilitaryequipment,andpossiblystationingaircraft,unmanneddronesand navalshipsinthePhilippines.Incertaincircumstancestheseaircraftandshipsmight conductjointpatrols. 3.NewlyinauguratedpresidentRussia,VladimirPutinhasjustannouncedRussiawill comebacktoAsiaPacificregion.Whatarethereasonsbehindthisstrategyandhow thiswillaffecttheregionssituation?

2 ANSWER:RussiareturnedquietlytoAsiain2005whenitattendedtheinauguralEast AsiaSummitasaguestofMalaysia.ThatyearASEANandRussiaalsosignedaten year comprehensive action plan (200515). Russia is returning to the AsiaPacific because it has basically recovered from its collapse and is now riding high on revenue from its oil and gas exports. Both China and Japan would like to obtain suppliesviaalandline.AmajorimpetustoRussiasreturntotheAsiaPacificwasits membershipintheEastAsiaSummitlastyear.CoupledwiththisisVladimirPutkins desiretoseeRussiaplayagreaterinternationalroleandrecoverfromtheyearsof relativeneglectintheAsiaPacific.RussiawillhosttheAPECsummitinVladivostok laterthisyear.PutkinwillattendandhewillalsoattendtheAsiaEuropeMeetingin Laos. Russias economic recovery has also led to the revival of its Far Eastern fleet butnottothestandardduringtheColdWar.Russiahasstrongmilitarysalestothe region..Russia,asapermanentmemberoftheUNSecurityCouncil,canbeexpected toplayanindependentroleinSoutheastAsia. 4.GooglehascorrectedthewronginformationonVietNamsovereigntyoverHoang Sa or Paracel archipelago on Google Maps. In your opinion, is this a diplomatic victoryoronlyalittleencourageforus? ANSWER:Vietnammuststruggleateveryopportunitytodefenditssovereignty.A lot of little victories add up to a major one. It is important to correct the public record because China will not lose any opportunity to quote from Google or the NationalGeographicSocietywhenitsuitsChinaspurpose. Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, South China Sea: China Threatens War, ThayerConsultancyBackgroundBriefing,May15,2012.

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AcademicPapers2012ontheSouthChinaSea/MaritimeSecuritybyCarlyleA.Thayer Availableathttp://www.scribd.com/carlthayer Positioning ASEAN between Global Powers, Presentation to the 14th Regional Outlook Forum,InstituteofSoutheastAsianStudies,ShangrilaHotel,Singapore,January5,2012. TheSouthChinaSeaDisputesandTheirImpactontheSecurityEnvironmentofSoutheast Asia:WhatLiesAhead?,PresentationtotheInternationalConferenceonthePoliticaland SecurityImplicationsoftheSouthChinaSeaDispute,cosponsoredbytheCenterforAsia PacificAreaStudiesandtheEastWestCenter,AcademiaSinica,Taipei,Taiwan,January12 13,2012. Vietnams Security Outlook, Presentation to International Workshop on AsiaPacific Security,NationalInstituteforDefenseStudies,Tokyo,Japan,January1718,2012. Strategic Relations in Asia: An Overview, Presentation to 4th East Asia Security Outlook Seminar,SultanHajiHassanalBolkiahInstituteofDefenceandStrategicStudies,Ministryof Defence,BandarSeriBegawan,BruneiDarussalam,February2,2012. "The Rise of China and Maritime Security in South East Asia," Presentation to 11th IDE Forum, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) Headquarters,ArkBuilding,Akasaka,Tokyo,February9,2012. Efforts to Ensure Maritime Security, Presentation to 2nd Tokyo Defense Forum Seminar, organizedbytheMinistryofDefense,Galaxy,Chinzanso,Tokyo,March16,2012. DoConfidenceBuildingMeasuresReallyAddresstheMajorChallengestoMaritime Security?,PresentationtoJointMeetingofthe36thAustraliaCouncilforSecurity CooperationinAsiaandthePacific(AUSCSCAP)MeetingandTheAustralianNational UniversityCentreofExcellenceinPolicingandSecurity(ANUCEPS)MaritimeExpert NetworksMeeting,TheCommonRoom,UniversityHouse,TheAustralianNational University,Canberra,March2223,2012. Sovereignty Disputes in the South China Sea: Diplomacy, Legal Regimes and Realpolitik, PresentationtoInternationalConferenceonTopicalRegionalSecurityIssuesinEastAsia,co sponsored by the Faculty of Asian and African Studies and the Ho Chi Minh Institute, St. PetersburgStateUniversity,St.Petersburg,RussianFederation,April67,2012.