Fact Sheet

Timeline: Afghanistan to 2014

By Joshua Foust and Kelvin Lum May 16, 2012

Introduction
As the United States and NATO look to complete a drawdown of combat forces from Afghanistan, they must take note of a list of critical events relating to their mission. U.S. and NATO forces will encounter the events listed below between now and the official 2014 full transition of security operations to the Afghan Forces. We present them in the spirit of informing a debate about planning for the future of U.S. policy in the region.
May 15-22 NATO conference in Chicago July 8 Tokyo International Conference2 August 6 One year anniversary of CH-47 Chinook crash where 31 American soldiers and 7 Afghan soldiers died1 September U.S. Surge troop withdrawal complete, leaving 68,000 American troops3 October DoD 1230 Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan November 6 - U.S. General Election November 26 1 year anniversary of NATO attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers4

2012

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No Date Determined- Tentative opening of Taliban Office in Qatar and Taliban Prisoner exchange No Date Determined- Pakistani Presidential Elections to be held in 2012 5 No Date Determined France withdraws its troops from ISAF.6

2013
January 20 U.S. Presidential Inauguration February 20 One-year anniversary of the Koran burnings at Bagram Airbase7 March DoD 1230 Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan March 11 One year anniversary of the civilian massacre in Kandahar8 March 16 - Pakistani General Elections (Parliament & President) May 1 2nd anniversary of Death of Osama bin Laden9 May 1 One-year anniversary of the signing of the Strategic Partnership Agreement10 June Iranian Presidential Elections August NATO Secretary General 4 year Term ends (possible 1 year extension) August Tenth anniversary of NATO in charge of ISAF October Projected levels of ANSF manpower--ANA: 240,000 ANP: 160,00011 October DoD 1230 Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan

 End of 2013 Australia withdraws its troops from ISAF.12 No Date Determined - Afghanistan Presidential Elections if called early in 2013 13

2014
January Tenth anniversary of the ratification of the Afghan Constitution March DoD 1230 Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan June Expiration of Manas Transit Center Lease (automatic 1 year extension if no objections) 14 October DoD 1230 Report on Progress Toward Security and Stability in Afghanistan November 4 - U.S. mid-term elections December Transition of security responsibility to Afghan Forces complete No Date Determined - Afghanistan Presidential Elections

2024
May End of Strategic Partnership Agreement Opportunity for renewal 6 months prior15

Note: 1230 report dates based on previous releases of report Joshua Foust is a fellow at the American Security Project. Matthew Wallin is a policy analyst at the American Security Project. Kelvin Lum is a policy analyst research intern at the American Security Project.

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Footnotes:
1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/06/us-helicopter-crash-afghanistan-kills-38 2. http://www.gmic.gov.af/english/index.php/political/270-afghan-government-taking-preparation-for-tokyointernational-conference3. http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-22/politics/afghanistan.troops.drawdown_1_afghanistan-drawdown-surgeforces-president-barack-obama?_s=PM:POLITICS 4. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/26/pakistan-halts-nato-supplies-attack 5. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/15/pakistan-early-elections 6. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/07/francois-hollande-afghanistan-exit_n_1497859.html 7. http://news.yahoo.com/official-mistakes-led-afghan-quran-burnings-053758916.html

8. http://news.yahoo.com/us-seeks-contain-damage-afghan-shooting-203321427.html 9. http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/osama-bin-laden-is-killed-by-us-forces-in-pakistan/2011/05/01/ AFXMZyVF_story.html 10. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/05/01/fact-sheet-us-afghanistan-strategic-partnershipagreement 11. http://csis.org/files/publication/101115_Cordesman_AfghanNationalSecurityForces_Web.pdf 12. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/18/australia-withdrawal-nato-officials_n_1433838.html 13. http://news.yahoo.com/afghan-president-may-call-early-elections-094716862.html 14. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/world/asia/kyrgyzstan-says-united-states-manas-air-base-will-close. html?_r=1 15. http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/2012.06.01u.s.-afghanistanspasignedtext.pdf

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