Market Outlook 11th May 2012

Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open lower tracking mixed cues from the global
markets. While major European markets rose on Thursday, US markets were
mixed. Most of the Asian markets are trading in the red with SGX Nifty trading
marginally lower by 0.5% in the opening session.
Domestic Indices
U.S markets had choppy trade on Thursday following the downward trend seen
over the past several sessions. However, reports showing a reduction in initial
jobless claims for the week to 367,000 provided some relief to the markets. While
Nasdaq index fell marginally, Dow index and S&P index rose by 0.2% and 0.3%
respectively. The German DAX index ended up 0.7%, while the French CAC 40
index and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 index gained 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
Meanwhile, Indian markets ended modestly lower on Thursday, erasing early
gains. FII outflow fears continued to haunt investors despite a series of measures
announced by the RBI recently to prop up the `, which hit a record low of 53.85
against the dollar the previous day. Markets would track the IIP data for expected
to be released today.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.4)
Nifty
(0.2)
(9.1)
4,966
0.1
3.8
5,998
SMALL CAP
(0.2)
(15.8)
6,454
BSE HC
(0.3)
(22.0)
6,707
BSE PSU
(0.2)
(15.7)
6,780
BANKEX
(0.1)
AUTO
(0.9)
METAL
(1.0) (105.2) 10,227
MID CAP
OIL & GAS

BSE IT
Global Indices
Dow Jones
NASDAQ
FTSE
(59.5) 16,420
(8.9) 10,834
(86.8)
9,722
0.6
46.8
7,585
(0.1)
(4.8)
5,540
(Pts)
(Close)
Chg (%)
0.2
20.0 12,855
(0.0)
(1.1)
2,934
0.3
13.9
5,544
(35.4)
9,010
Markets Today
Nikkei
(0.4)
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,490 / 4,985 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 16,602 16,784 / 5,020 5,074 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
16,490 / 4,985 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
16,307 16,195 / 4,931 4,896 levels.
Hang Seng
(0.5) (103.4) 20,227
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
16,195
16,307
16,490
16,602
NIFTY
4,896
4,931
4,985
5,020
Straits Times
0.0
(0.1)
2,900
Shanghai Com
0.1
1.6
2,410
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
0.1
0.0
$44.5
16,784
WIT
0.8
0.1
$9.2
5,074
IBN
1.1
0.3
$30.8
HDB
0.8
0.3
$31.6
Indian ADRs
News Analysis
Cabinet clears MFI Bill

4QFY2012 Result Reviews NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Cadila, Canara Bank, Apollo
Tyres, Sintex, HEG
4QFY2012 Result Previews Dr Reddys Lab, Indian Bank, Federal Bank
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,208
597
Declines
1,592
837
123
79
Unchanged
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Net Inflows (May 9, 2012)
Volumes (` cr)
` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
FII
2,211
2,569
622
596
MFs
MTD
YTD
BSE
1,942
(357)
(472)
42,990
NSE
9,693
26
(474)
(6,575)
FII Derivatives (May 10, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,672
1,717
(46)
10,106
Stock Futures
1,313
1,153
161
20,677
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Price (`)
Losers
chg (%)
Company
Price (`)
chg (%)
Glenmark Pharma
364
7.1
GVK Power
12
(7.0)
Chambal Fert
69
4.0
IVRCL
53
(6.2)
Cairn India
321
4.0
HDIL
63
(5.3)
Indusind Bank
316
3.4
Suzlon Energy
20
(4.9)
IDFC
119
3.1
Lupin
521
(4.1)
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Cabinet clears MFI bill

The cabinet has cleared the Micro finance bill which will bring the micro lenders
under the purview of the Reserve Bank. The MFI bill is positive for the micro
finance institutions sector as it will supersede the state government laws, which has
been in turmoil ever since the Andhra Pradesh government set stringent norms on
lending and interest collection within the state. It is also positive for the Banking
sector as it will help to reduce the MFI delinquencies on their books.
Result Reviews
NTPC (CMP: `150/ TP: `201/Upside 34%)
For 4QFY2012, NTPC posted a 4.8% yoy growth in its standalone net sales to
`16,264cr, in-line with our estimates, aided by higher capacity and better
realization. OPM stood at 25.3%, up 180bp on yoy basis, despite the increase in
fuel costs, on account of higher realizations. The companys net profit declined by
6.8% yoy to `2,594cr, due to higher interest, tax and depreciation. NTPCs tax
expense for the quarter stood at `1,063cr vs. `475cr in 4QFY2011. We maintain
a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `201.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
73,558
23.4
10,397
12.6
13.3 11.9
1.5
10.3
2.4
FY2014E
84,843
23.6
11,621
14.1
13.5 10.6
1.4
9.5
2.2
Cipla (CMP- `323/ TP- /Buy)

Cipla reported better than expected result both on the net sales and profits. For the
4QFY2012, Cipla reported sales and net profit of `1814cr and `292cr, registering
a yoy growth of 12.3% and 25.4% respectively. On the operating front, the Gross
and Operating margins came in at 57.4% and 19.1% respectively. While both
GPM and OPM expanded yoy, they were below expectations of 58.2% and 21.5%
respectively. However, inspite of the same, the net profit came in at higher than
expectations of `292cr, V/s expectations of `282cr, mainly on of lower taxation
and deprecation during the quarter than expected. Currently the stock is valued at
15.6xFY2014E earnings. We retain our Buy rating on the stock; however, target
price is under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,196
21.4
1.415
17.4
17.5
18.5
2.9
14.7
3.2
FY2014E
7,443
21.4
1,677
20.7
15.6
14.1
2.5
12.4
2.7
Lupin (CMP- `543/ TP- `656/ Buy)

Lupin reported just-in-line sales, while the net profit came in below expectations.
For the quarter, the company posted sales of `1932cr, a rise of 24.6% yoy. The
growth on the advanced and emerging, both of which grew by 30% and 29% yoy
respectively, aided the overall growth of the company. On the operating front, the
Gross and Operating margins came in at 59.5% and 17.6% respectively. The
OPMs were below expectations of 19.7%. This along with the higher tax along
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
with the deprecations during the quarter aided the net profit to come at `156cr, in
comparison to the `258cr estimated for the quarter. Currently the stock is valued
at 16.6xFY2014E earnings. We maintain a buy on the stock with a target of `656.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
8,426
19.7
1,324
29.7
28.6
18.3
4.7
14.9
2.9
FY2014E
10,082
20.0
1,677
32.8
25.7
16.6
3.8
12.0
2.4
Cadila Healthcare (CMP- `734/ TP- `1016/ Buy)

Cadila Healthcare reported below than expected sales and net profit numbers. For
the quarter, the company posted sales of `1344cr, a rise of 15.0% yoy. The
growth was primarily driven by domestic markets, which registered a yoy growth of
38.2%. Exports on the other hand grew yoy by 5.3% during the period. On the
operating front, the Gross and Operating margins came in at 64.7% and 17.0%
respectively. The OPMs were below expectations of 18.7%. This along with the
higher interest expenses during the quarter aided the net profit to come at `171cr,
in comparison to the `200cr estimated for the quarter. Currently the stock is
valued at 14xFY2014E earnings. We maintain a buy on the stock with a target of
`1016.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,196
18.5
934
45.6
30.1
16.1
4.4
13.1
2.4
FY2014E
7,443
19.5
1077
52.6
27.8
14.0
3.5
9.9
1.9
Canara Bank (CMP: `419 / TP: `532 / Upside: 27.0%)

For 4QFY2012, Canara Bank posted a weak set of results with net profit declining
by 7.8% yoy to `829cr. Bottom-line was dented by subdued net interest income,
de-growth in fee income and higher operating expenses. The banks overall
business growth remained moderate with advances growth of 11.3% yoy, largely
aided by agriculture, infrastructure, and industrials segments. Deposits grew by
9.4% yoy. On the deposits side, calculated CASA ratio declined by 383bp yoy to
24.3%, due to decrease in current deposits by 39.5% yoy and 10.5% yoy growth in
saving deposits. The banks reported NIMs remained flattish during 4QFY2012, as
rise in yield on advances by 8bps qoq to 10.93% was completely offset by a
similar rise in the cost of deposits to 7.35%. Commission and brokerage income
de-grew during the quarter by 13.7% yoy to `215cr.
On the asset quality front, gross and net NPA ratio for the bank remained at
nearly the same levels on a qoq basis. Provision coverage ratio for the quarter also
remained flat sequentially at 67.6%. During 4QFY2012, the bank restructured
`2,572cr worth of accounts, of which `1,475cr was on account of restructuring of
Air India. The bank did not restructure any SEB accounts during 4QFY2012, but
expects `5,385cr of SEB restructuring to occur in 1QFY2013 which would include
discoms from the state of Rajasthan, Haryana and UP and Gujarat. The stock is
currently trading at cyclically moderate valuations of 0.7x FY2014E ABV vs. 5-year
average of 1.0x and range of 0.7-1.4x, in our view largely factor in the negatives.
Hence, we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `532.
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
1,212
2.2
328
85.7
506.9
0.8
15.0 5.5
0.8
FY2014E
1,401
2.2
375
95.4
573.9
0.8
15.2 4.8
0.7
Apollo Tyres (CMP- `82 / TP- /Under review)

For 4QFY2012, Apollo Tyres (APTY) registered a strong net sales growth of 18.4%
yoy (flat qoq) to `3,231cr driven by 8.8% yoy growth each in total volumes and net
average realization. Indian operations were the prime driver of growth with total
sales increasing by 28.2% yoy driven by 14% growth each in volumes and net
average realization. While European operations witnessed slightly lower than
expected growth of 8.7% yoy, poor performance in South Africa impacted the
overall performance. South Africa operations witnessed 18% yoy decline in
volumes led by poor demand and also on account of plant shutdown due to
national as well as company specific issues.
On the operating front, margins expanded 110bp sequentially (flat on yoy basis)
to 11.1%, mainly due to margin improvement in the domestic business (EBITDA
margin improved 200bp yoy and 160bp sequentially) led by decline in rawmaterial expenses. However, weak performance in South Africa and Europe
nullified the positive impact of strong domestic performance. While South Africa
operations reported operating loss largely due to de-growth in volumes; Europe
operations witnessed 200bp margin contraction sequentially during the quarter.
Net profit declined 18.6% yoy to `157cr mainly on account of higher interest (up
31.5%) and depreciation (up 22.1%) expense and lower other income (down 37%).
Further higher tax rate (24.6% as against 8.4% in 4QFY2011) also impacted the
bottom-line negatively.
Going ahead, we expect the domestic business to do well, led by pick-up in
demand in the replacement segment, improvement in OEM demand and stable
raw-material environment. However, South Africa and Europe operations are
expected to remain under pressure due to demand slowdown. At `82, the stock is
trading at 6.5x FY2014E earnings. We retain our Buy rating on the stock; however,
target price is under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
FY2013E
13,580
10.1
531
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
10.5
17.8
7.8
1.3
4.9
0.5
FY2014E
15,007
10.2
630
12.5
18.1
6.5
1.1
4.1
0.4
Sintex Industries (CMP- `61 / TP- / Under review)

Sintex Industries announced its 4QFY2012 results. The companys net sales
declined by 11.8% qoq and 30.1% yoy to `1,024cr on the back of lower sales in
the plastic segment. The plastic segment registered a 14.8% qoq and 33.2% yoy
decline in revenue to `892cr. The textile segment, on the other hand, witnessed
15.1% qoq and 2.2% yoy growth in revenue to `132cr. The companys EBITDA
declined by 44.7% yoy to `160cr (`290cr) on the back of lower revenue and
margin contraction. EBITDA margin contracted by 415bp yoy but expanded by
158bp qoq to 15.6% on account of lower other expenditure. Other expenditure as
a percentage of sales declined to 13.0% in 4QFY2012 compared to 14.7% in
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
3QFY2012. PAT declined by 45.7% yoy to `91cr (`168cr) due to margin

contraction on a yoy basis and lower revenue during the quarter. Consequently,
PAT margin declined by 256bp yoy to 8.9% (11.5%). Currently, the stock is under
review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
FY2013E
5,219
16.5
428
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
15.8
14.7
3.9
0.6
3.3
0.6
FY2014E
4,702
16.9
581
21.4
17.1
2.9
0.5
2.6
0.4
HEG (CMP `222/ TP-/ Under Review)

For 4QFY2012, HEG reported a disappointing set of numbers. The company's top
line came in at `407cr, 4.1% below our estimates of `425cr; however, revenue
increased by 44.7% on a yoy basis, mainly driven by higher prices of graphite
electrodes. EBITDA margin plunged by 1470bp to 5.9% during the quarter due to
increased power and fuel cost, which grew from 6% (as percentage of sales) to
8.1% and forex loss of `48cr. Depreciation cost increased by 11% yoy due to
commencement of the expanded capacity. Thus, the overall increase in expenses
led to a fall in net profit by 85.5% yoy to `5cr in the quarter as compared to `34cr
in 4QFY2011. The stock rating is under review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
RoE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
1767
13.8
107
25.9
12.2
8.3
1.0
7.7
1.1
FY2014E
1973
14.3
121
29.2
12.9
7.4
0.9
7.1
1.0
Result Previews
Dr Reddys
For the 4QFY2012, Dr Reddys is expected to post top-line growth of 14% yoy to
`2,301cr, majorly driven by the U.S. market. The company is expected to see good
traction in its Indian and Russian formulation businesses as well. The company is
expected to post EBITDA of 32.0%, up 770bp yoy. On the net profit front, the
company is expected to post net profit of `526cr, registering 57.3% yoy growth.
We maintain our neutral stance on the stock.
Indian Bank
Indian Bank is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results. Net interest income is
expected to grow by moderate 12.8% yoy (up 3.1% qoq) to `1,170cr. Non-interest
income is expected to increase by 13.1% yoy to `281cr. Consequently, operating
income is expected to increase by 12.8% yoy to `1,451cr. Operating expenses are
expected to increase by 13.7% yoy to `540cr, leading to pre-provisioning profit
growing by 12.3% yoy to `912cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase
three-fold on a yoy basis to `236cr. Consequently, net profit is expected to
increase only by 7.0% yoy to `526cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations
of 0.7x FY2014E ABV. We recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target
price of `240.
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Federal Bank
Federal Bank is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the bank
to report healthy net interest income growth of 19.9% yoy to `227cr. Non-interest
income is expected to increase by 11.4% yoy to `157cr. Cost-to-income ratio is
expected to remain similar to 3QFY2012 levels at 38.7%. Pre-provision profit of
the bank is expected to increase by 21.5% yoy to `425cr. Net profit is expected to
increase by healthy 32.2% to `227cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at valuations
of 1.0x FY2014E P/ABV. We remain Neutral on the stock.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Dr. Reddy Laboratories Ltd - Consolidated (11/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
1Q CY12E
1Q CY11
y-o-y (%)
4Q CY11
Net sales
q-o-q (%)
2,592
2,017
29
2,769
(6)
Net profit
451
334
35
513
(12)
Federal Bank Ltd - (11/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
204
172
19
202
Divi's Laboratories Ltd - (12/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
409
480
(15)
415
(1)
EBITDA
155
194
(20)
151
EBITDA margin (%)
37.9
40.4
Net profit
121
175
(31)
123
(2)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
16,520
13,315
24
12,851
29
EBITDA
619
865
(28)
734
(16)
EBITDA margin (%)
3.7
6.5
(221)
321
(169)
(3,986)
(94)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
680
421
62
588
16
EBITDA
464
310
50
411
13
EBITDA margin (%)
68.2
73.6
Net profit
318
228
36.4
Essar Oil Ltd - (12/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
Net profit
5.7
Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
69.9
39
273
16
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Ashok Leyland Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
4,224
3,829
10
2,880
47
EBITDA
475
510
(7)
210
126
EBITDA margin (%)
11.2
13.3
Net profit
263
298
Net sales
7.3
(12)
67
293
JSW Steel Ltd - Consolidated (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
8,869
7,210
23
8,405
EBITDA
1,592
1,016
57
1,317
21
EBITDA margin (%)
18.0
14.1
Net profit
561
292
92
(48)
(1269)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
18,468
15,078
22
13,999
32
2,547
2,341
1,343
90
13.8
15.5
1,652
1,686
15.7
Larsen & Toubro Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Net profit
9.6
(2)
992
Economic and Political News
India to grow at 7.5% in FY2013: UN Report

Govt. directs coal firms to supply fuel to power plans via MoU route
Oil companies demand subsidy for petrol losses
Corporate News
SKS Micro Fin shuts 78 branches in Andhra Pradesh

Allahabad Bank plans to revive US$500mn bond sale
Unitech moves CLB against Telenor
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
67
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 11, 2012
NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Sintex, Apollo Tyres, HEG
May 12, 2012
Dr Reddy's, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Graphite India, Goodyear
May 13, 2012
J & K Bank, Essar Oil, Divi's Lab., Bhushan Steel, Madhucon Proj, Consolidated Co, Relaxo
May 14, 2012
May 16, 2012
Larsen & Toubro, Mundra Port, JSW Steel , Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas, Areva, Monnet Ispat, Orchid Chemicals,
IVRCL Infra, Abbott India
Cummins India, Unitech, Patel Engg., Dishman Pharma, JK Tyre
May 17, 2012
Blue Star, J K Lakshmi Cements
May 18, 2012
Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam
May 19, 2012
Coal India, St Bk of India, Tata Steel, HT Media
May 20, 2012
Force Motors
May 21, 2012
May 22, 2012
Adani Enterp., Adani Power, Zee Entertainment
May 23, 2012
Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn.
May 24, 2012
Rural Elec.Corp., Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories
May 25, 2012
GSPL, Madras Cements, Hitachi
May 26, 2012
NHPC, BPCL
May 15, 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
May 11, 2012
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Feb-12
4.10
1.70
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
11.90
12.20
China
% Change
Apr-12
3.40
3.40
% Change
Mar-12
6.89
6.62
% Change
Mar-12
0.30
0.10
May 14, 2012
India
May 15, 2012
US
Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer price index (mom)
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
Dec-11
(0.30)
(0.20)
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
Dec-11
1.50
--
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Mar-12
2.70
2.60
US
Industrial Production
Mar-12
--
0.50
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar-12
654.00
680.00
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar-12
764.00
730.00
UK
% Change
Mar-12
3.60
5.00
Value
Apr-12
(19.90)
--
UK
Jobless claims change

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
3.50
--
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Mar-12
4.48
--
May 23, 2012
US
New home sales
Thousands
Mar-12
328.00
--
May 24, 2012
Germany
PMI Services
Value
Apr-12
52.20
--
Germany
PMI Manufacturing
UK
GDP (YoY)
US
Consumer Confidence
May 16, 2012
May 22, 2012
May 29, 2012
Euro Zone
Value
Apr-12
46.20
--
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
Value
Apr-12
69.20
--
Market Strategy
May 11, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
9.8
10.0
12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
5.3
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
3.7
4.1
3.4
2.5
2.5
1.1
2.0
(6.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Feb-12
Jan-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.0
56.0
6.9
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
48.0
Sep-11
0.0
Aug-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
May-11
52.0
Apr-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Dec-11
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Apr-11
Mar-11
6.0
9.5
9.4
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
4.00
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
15
(15)
7.00
6.00
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
126
2,457
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
18.1
15.8
3.8
3.3
22.8
22.3
1.7
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
120
183
5,515
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
7.0
6.5
1.1
1.0
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
295
345
2,517
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.0
9.0
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
82
100
4,123
13,580
15,007
10.1
10.2
10.5
12.5
7.8
6.5
1.3
1.1
21.8
30.7
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
28
37
7,317
15,008
16,906
9.5
9.5
2.6
3.1
10.7
8.9
2.2
1.9
15.5
17.0
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle
Neutral
500
756
1,211
1,390
11.9
11.5
50.5
56.3
9.9
8.9
2.5
2.0
27.9
25.3
0.7
0.6
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,503
1,811
43,489
21,966
24,774
19.8
19.0
111.7
120.7
13.5
12.5
5.2
4.2
43.1
37.1
1.6
1.3
Bharat Forge
Accumulate
338
372
7,863
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
15.1
12.7
2.9
2.5
21.0
21.0
1.2
1.0
Bosch India
Neutral
9,179
28,820
9,390
10,716
19.5
19.1
420.2
471.4
21.8
19.5
5.1
4.3
23.3
21.8
2.8
2.4
CEAT
Buy
97
164
334
5,067
5,631
8.0
7.6
39.4
41.0
2.5
2.4
0.4
0.4
18.8
16.5
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
125
146
10,583
5,787
6,595
15.5
17.0
7.1
9.0
17.5
13.9
3.1
2.6
18.6
20.3
1.5
1.2
FAG Bearings
Neutral
1,541
2,561
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
13.1
11.6
2.8
2.3
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
1,843
36,799
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
13.1
12.5
6.2
4.8
54.8
43.3
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
76
113
312
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.1
2.4
0.3
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
661
802
40,599
35,095
40,213
10.7
10.5
44.6
48.7
14.8
13.6
2.6
2.3
18.8
18.1
0.8
0.7
Maruti
Buy
1,261
1,510
36,417
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
14.6
12.5
2.1
1.8
15.3
15.5
0.7
0.5
Motherson Sumi
Buy
169
216
6,560
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
15.0
11.8
3.2
2.7
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
32
193
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.7
6.5
0.8
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
290
328
77,974 191,183 213,150
12.6
12.6
38.7
42.9
7.5
6.8
2.6
2.1
39.8
33.9
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
36
55
1,710
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
7.2
6.5
1.3
1.1
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
726
503
15,381
8,926
10,220
7.7
7.5
18.6
20.9
39.0
34.7
5.3
4.7
14.5
14.5
1.7
1.5
BGR Energy
Reduce
302
274
2,179
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
11.1
9.9
1.8
1.6
17.3
17.4
1.1
1.0
BHEL
Neutral
219
53,676
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.3
9.1
1.9
1.6
21.3
18.9
1.0
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
186
221
1,669
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
14.9
11.8
3.1
2.6
21.2
23.8
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
120
164
7,666
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
11.0
10.2
1.9
1.7
18.4
17.3
0.6
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Buy
39
67
321
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
3.6
2.9
0.4
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
51
73
1,316
6,686
7,200
7.7
7.9
10.6
12.2
4.9
4.2
0.9
0.8
25.9
24.0
0.3
0.3
LMW
Buy
1,556
2,609
1,753
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.4
7.2
1.7
1.5
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.1
Thermax
Neutral
430
5,121
5,473
5,497
10.1
9.8
30.4
28.7
14.2
15.0
2.7
2.4
20.5
16.9
0.8
0.7
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,200
22,529
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
17.0
14.8
3.0
2.7
18.0
19.0
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
146
22,444
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.4
13.8
2.8
2.6
18.5
19.4
1.9
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
84
2,590
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
8.6
6.7
0.7
0.7
8.6
10.5
0.9
0.8
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
61
79
747
1,880
2,201
19.0
22.6
12.2
16.4
5.0
3.7
0.6
0.5
11.9
14.3
0.6
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
144
3,428
3,434
3,777
25.5
26.1
14.1
18.1
10.2
8.0
1.5
1.3
15.2
16.9
1.6
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,690
9,371
5,552
6,193
25.7
26.0
130.3
182.0
20.6
14.8
4.3
3.6
19.1
22.3
1.4
1.1
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,392
38,142
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.0
14.3
2.7
2.3
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.7
195
302
1,027
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
6.9
6.3
0.9
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
15
273
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
8.0
5.2
0.4
0.4
5.6
8.2
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
18
1,116
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(10.3)
(23.6)
1.1
1.2
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
121
228
4,037
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
8.1
7.2
1.2
1.1
16.3
15.9
2.7
2.5
ITNL
Buy
172
265
3,334
6,619
7,925
23.8
23.3
22.0
26.7
7.8
6.4
1.1
1.0
14.9
15.9
2.2
2.1
IVRCL Infra
Buy
53
79
1,415
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
11.3
8.8
0.7
0.6
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
60
104
12,844
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
14.4
12.0
1.2
1.1
8.8
9.7
2.1
1.9
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,156
1,641
70,781
60,258
69,900
12.1
11.5
70.7
76.3
16.4
15.2
2.5
2.1
16.1
15.2
1.3
1.1
Madhucon Proj
Buy
48
84
352
2,503
2,903
10.7
10.7
5.8
6.6
8.2
7.3
0.5
0.5
6.6
7.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
37
76
956
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
10.7
6.9
0.4
0.4
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.8
Patel Engg.
Neutral
93
650
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
6.6
6.4
0.4
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.0
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
45
1,496
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
15.5
9.9
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
133
199
2,001
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
13.1
11.8
2.1
1.8
17.6
16.3
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
215
316
1,064
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
7.9
6.1
0.8
0.7
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
152
166
7,603
7,392
8,542
3.1
3.1
38.3
42.1
4.0
3.6
0.7
0.6
18.4
17.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
105
5,859
5,284
5,998
3.3
3.2
23.6
27.0
4.4
3.9
0.7
0.6
16.5
16.7
Axis Bank
Buy
979
1,587
40,508
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
8.4
7.0
1.6
1.3
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
641
926
25,084
15,993
18,918
2.6
2.6
121.5
143.1
5.3
4.5
0.9
0.8
17.8
18.2
Bank of India
Buy
313
386
17,982
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
54.9
63.1
5.7
5.0
0.9
0.8
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
48
62
2,851
3,665
4,107
3.5
3.5
10.7
13.5
4.5
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.8
17.5
Canara Bank
Buy
419
532
18,553
12,120
14,009
2.2
2.2
85.7
95.4
4.9
4.4
0.8
0.7
17.2
16.7
Central Bank
Buy
77
92
5,646
6,860
7,934
2.4
2.4
13.1
19.9
5.9
3.9
0.7
0.7
10.5
13.8
Financials
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
404
522
5,990
5,203
5,880
2.2
2.1
107.5
112.7
3.8
3.6
0.6
0.6
17.9
16.5
Dena Bank
Buy
84
118
2,951
3,003
3,366
3.0
2.9
23.2
25.6
3.6
3.3
0.6
0.5
18.0
16.9
Federal Bank
Neutral
408
6,981
2,766
3,163
3.4
3.3
49.5
57.2
8.3
7.1
1.1
1.0
14.0
14.5
HDFC
Neutral
651
96,162
7,244
8,625
3.3
3.3
31.2
37.2
20.9
17.5
4.1
3.6
34.2
31.3
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
517
567
121,342
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
18.3
14.6
3.5
3.0
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
813
1,183
93,413
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.0
10.0
1.5
1.3
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
92
117
11,806
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
4.7
3.9
0.6
0.6
13.8
14.9
Indian Bank
Buy
196
240
8,436
6,469
7,244
3.5
3.3
45.5
48.8
4.3
4.0
0.8
0.7
19.6
18.2
IOB
Buy
82
101
6,511
7,354
8,283
2.5
2.4
16.3
21.7
5.0
3.8
0.6
0.5
11.5
13.9
J & K Bank
Neutral
854
4,138
2,420
2,792
3.5
3.6
178.0
195.8
4.8
4.4
0.9
0.8
19.5
18.6
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
241
286
12,185
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
9.9
7.9
1.8
1.6
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
220
285
6,416
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.0
3.5
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
754
1,138
23,891
20,708
24,094
3.5
3.5
156.3
178.7
4.8
4.2
0.9
0.7
19.7
18.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
2,591
1,368
1,557
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.9
6.2
5.8
1.1
1.0
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Buy
1,844
2,593
123,724
69,568
81,445
3.7
3.7
220.9
269.8
8.4
6.8
1.4
1.2
18.9
19.1
Syndicate Bank
Buy
91
128
5,475
7,069
7,961
3.1
3.0
23.3
27.5
3.9
3.3
0.6
0.5
17.4
17.2
UCO Bank
Neutral
68
4,245
5,727
6,443
2.5
2.5
17.8
18.8
3.8
3.6
0.8
0.7
17.8
16.2
Union Bank
Buy
203
266
10,649
10,352
11,988
2.9
2.9
40.7
49.5
5.0
4.1
0.8
0.7
16.8
17.4
United Bank
Buy
58
87
2,088
3,666
4,128
2.9
2.9
18.4
21.7
3.1
2.7
0.5
0.4
15.9
16.0
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
53
2,500
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.1
11.7
5.2
4.5
0.7
0.6
13.2
13.7
Yes Bank
Buy
326
470
11,546
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
9.6
7.9
2.0
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,655
35,054
10,961
12,773
16.3
16.3
120.3
142.5
30.4
25.6
10.1
8.0
36.9
34.7
3.1
2.6
551
650
6,584
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
24.7
19.5
10.1
7.5
45.2
44.1
1.1
0.9
1,162
15,796
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
30.8
27.3
36.7
29.6
129.4
120.1
5.1
4.5
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Neutral
106
18,449
5,878
6,799
16.8
17.0
4.2
4.9
25.5
21.6
9.3
7.6
39.3
42.0
3.2
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,779
11,689
3,111
2,687
16.9
15.8
100.6
86.1
27.6
32.3
8.4
10.2
33.3
33.8
3.4
4.0
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
528
17,971
5,973
7,000
18.4
18.6
22.8
27.2
23.2
19.5
6.4
5.1
31.3
38.4
3.2
2.7
HUL
Neutral
432
93,421
25,350
29,309
14.3
14.4
14.1
16.4
30.6
26.4
22.9
17.9
82.7
76.2
3.5
3.0
ITC
Accumulate
239
252
186,665
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
26.1
22.7
8.3
6.9
34.8
33.1
6.2
5.3
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
181
11,112
4,667
5,427
12.8
12.9
6.6
8.1
27.2
22.2
7.3
5.7
30.0
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,510
43,484
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
37.8
30.5
23.2
15.8
73.0
61.6
5.0
4.1
Tata Global
Buy
112
136
6,954
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
18.9
15.8
1.7
1.7
8.9
10.2
0.9
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
491
560
34,029
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.0
11.4
2.9
2.4
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.3
Hexaware
Neutral
121
3,572
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
12.3
11.3
2.8
2.5
23.7
22.5
1.7
1.4
Infosys
Buy
2,348
2,792
134,841
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
14.8
13.5
3.3
2.8
22.5
20.8
2.9
2.5
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
166
177
1,849
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.9
8.9
1.4
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Reduce
115
98
2,042
2,042
2,139
15.2
14.9
9.6
10.9
12.0
10.6
2.1
1.7
19.2
18.0
1.0
0.8
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
72
89
8,420
7,142
8,042
15.4
15.0
7.7
8.3
9.4
8.7
1.3
1.1
13.8
13.0
0.8
0.6
Mindtree
Neutral
584
2,370
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
10.8
10.0
2.0
1.7
18.9
17.0
0.9
0.7
Mphasis
Accumulate
387
433
8,124
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
10.0
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.8
NIIT
Buy
42
61
701
1,105
1,200
16.4
16.9
7.5
9.2
5.7
4.6
1.0
0.9
17.6
19.0
0.4
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
363
1,453
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.8
9.1
1.5
1.3
15.4
14.5
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,234
241,433
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
19.5
17.4
6.0
4.8
30.5
27.7
4.0
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
657
750
8,378
6,030
6,511
16.3
15.7
81.1
87.0
8.1
7.6
1.6
1.4
20.1
18.0
1.4
1.1
Wipro
Accumulate
407
430
100,182
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
16.3
14.2
3.0
2.6
18.6
18.3
2.0
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
198
274
3,638
1,656
1,869
26.0
26.8
14.0
16.1
14.2
12.3
3.3
2.7
24.8
24.1
2.1
1.8
HT Media
Buy
117
170
2,738
2,255
2,555
17.8
18.3
10.0
12.0
11.7
9.7
1.6
1.4
14.7
15.4
1.0
0.8
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
92
137
2,916
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
12.1
10.2
4.1
3.6
34.6
37.7
1.9
1.7
PVR
Neutral
150
388
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
12.0
9.5
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
294
11,566
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
14.1
12.2
3.3
2.8
26.0
25.1
4.4
3.5
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
442
9,380
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.2
7.5
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.2
2.2
Coal India
Accumulate
322
351
203,103
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
13.4
12.2
3.7
3.0
30.4
27.0
2.1
1.8
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
19
27
661
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.1
5.8
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.2
0.4
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Buy
120
139
50,852
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.1
7.3
1.6
1.3
21.2
19.9
2.2
1.6
Hindalco
Neutral
117
22,477
84,652
88,766
9.6
10.5
17.0
18.9
6.9
6.2
0.6
0.6
9.7
9.8
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
661
14,757
39,161
43,958
17.8
17.9
72.2
89.5
9.2
7.4
0.8
0.7
10.1
11.4
0.6
0.5
MOIL
Neutral
254
4,267
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
10.4
9.6
1.6
1.4
16.1
15.8
2.2
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
450
585
2,894
2,986
3,908
22.1
28.9
50.5
83.4
8.9
5.4
1.1
0.9
13.5
19.2
1.9
1.3
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
58
51
15,000
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
23.0
16.6
1.3
1.2
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.4
168
185
66,627
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.0
8.2
2.1
1.8
26.1
23.8
3.5
3.0
SAIL
Accumulate
Sesa Goa
Buy
90
102
37,030
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
6.8
6.2
0.8
0.7
12.4
12.3
1.1
0.9
175
206
15,201
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
3.9
4.0
0.8
0.7
23.5
19.5
0.3
Sterlite Inds
Buy
95
123
31,959
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
5.8
5.0
0.6
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.3
0.2
Tata Steel
Buy
415
503
40,339 141,358 142,265
11.1
13.7
45.8
58.9
9.1
7.1
0.9
0.8
10.0
11.7
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Buy
321
372
61,171
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.3
6.6
1.1
0.9
18.3
14.8
2.8
2.1
GAIL
Buy
322
392
40,889
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.1
8.7
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
260
319
222,058 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.4
7.7
1.5
1.3
18.8
18.1
1.1
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
695
872
227,467 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
10.6
9.9
1.1
1.0
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
52
91
971
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
7.8
5.7
1.9
1.5
27.5
29.2
0.8
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
114
175
3,313
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
8.3
7.7
1.0
0.4
11.4
10.9
1.0
0.8
Aventis*
Neutral
2,107
4,852
1,482
1,682
15.5
15.5
95.0
104.0
22.2
20.3
3.9
3.1
18.6
17.0
3.1
2.6
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
751
1,016
15,384
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.4
14.8
4.5
3.6
25.4
24.8
2.5
2.0
Cipla
Buy
326
380
26,139
7,006
8,164
20.0
21.2
17.0
19.0
19.2
17.1
3.5
3.0
16.8
18.2
3.7
3.2
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,700
28,808
9,183
10,063
25.7
25.1
92.1
89.9
18.5
18.9
4.0
3.4
22.8
18.8
3.2
2.9
Dishman Pharma
Buy
43
91
345
1,282
1,538
17.9
17.9
10.1
13.0
4.2
3.3
0.4
0.3
8.5
10.1
1.0
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,052
17,382
2,788
3,148
35.6
35.2
87.9
96.7
23.4
21.2
7.6
6.3
34.8
32.1
5.5
4.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
434
665
533
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
7.8
6.5
1.2
1.0
16.4
16.9
0.9
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
357
443
4,490
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.7
40.6
10.9
8.8
2.7
2.2
27.8
27.7
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
521
656
23,293
8,272
9,929
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.8
17.6
15.9
4.5
3.5
25.0
22.9
2.8
2.3
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
168
270
1,181
2,143
2,508
21.8
21.8
28.3
38.1
5.9
4.4
1.2
1.0
19.3
23.4
1.5
1.2
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
497
20,975
12,023
12,264
19.9
16.9
41.1
36.9
12.1
13.5
2.6
2.3
30.0
17.6
1.5
1.4
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
593
634
61,037
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
22.2
20.6
4.5
3.8
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
268
342
3,353
4,927
5,429
23.8
23.9
41.0
46.2
6.5
5.8
0.7
0.6
10.4
10.7
1.2
1.3
GIPCL
Buy
62
98
943
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
6.0
6.1
0.6
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Buy
150
201
123,352
73,558
84,843
23.4
23.6
12.6
14.1
11.9
10.6
1.5
1.4
13.3
13.6
2.4
2.2
53
78
1,560
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
6.3
4.2
0.4
0.4
6.3
8.9
3.6
2.7
186
31,624
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.4
13.9
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
63
115
2,638
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
2.9
2.5
0.2
0.2
8.4
9.1
2.9
2.2
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
310
117,610
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
17.3
14.1
2.0
1.8
11.5
12.5
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
81
26,636
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
25.0
17.0
1.9
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.7
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
67
13,891
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
15.9
10.1
0.3
0.3
2.1
3.2
2.1
1.7
198
245
1,974
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
10.8
8.9
2.4
2.0
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.5
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,061
7,445
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
30.9
26.5
14.0
11.2
50.9
46.9
7.2
6.0
Finolex Cables
Buy
39
60
590
2,341
2,656
8.5
8.8
8.0
10.0
4.8
3.9
0.7
0.6
18.1
20.2
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
90
116
1,758
2,053
2,437
22.6
22.4
13.5
16.3
6.7
5.5
1.0
0.9
15.4
16.5
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
205
298
495
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.0
4.1
1.1
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
2,949
3,289
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
29.6
24.1
17.1
13.7
64.2
63.1
3.6
2.8
Sintex
Buy
61
129
1,665
5,219
5,912
16.5
16.9
15.8
21.4
3.9
2.9
0.6
0.5
14.7
17.1
0.6
0.4
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
261
439
245
1,045
1,173
12.3
12.4
61.5
73.2
4.2
3.6
0.8
0.7
20.2
20.4
0.5
0.5
SpiceJet
Neutral
29
1,285
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(8.5)
12.2
(11.8)
24.8
0.4
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
58
116
365
322
355
36.3
35.8
8.3
9.6
7.0
6.1
1.0
0.9
14.5
14.9
1.5
1.2
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 10, 2012
Market Outlook
May 11, 2012

Market Outlook 11th May 2012

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Market Outlook 11th May 2012

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Market Outlook

May 11, 2012

(1.0) (105.2) 10,227

OIL & GAS

(0.5) (103.4) 20,227

Cabinet clears MFI Bill

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (May 9, 2012)

FII Derivatives (May 10, 2012)

Cabinet clears MFI bill

Cipla (CMP- `323/ TP- /Buy)

Lupin (CMP- `543/ TP- `656/ Buy)

Cadila Healthcare (CMP- `734/ TP- `1016/ Buy)

Canara Bank (CMP: `419 / TP: `532 / Upside: 27.0%)

Apollo Tyres (CMP- `82 / TP- /Under review)

Sintex Industries (CMP- `61 / TP- / Under review)

3QFY2012. PAT declined by 45.7% yoy to `91cr (`168cr) due to margin

HEG (CMP `222/ TP-/ Under Review)

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Federal Bank Ltd - (11/05/2012)

Divi's Laboratories Ltd - (12/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

Essar Oil Ltd - (12/05/2012)

Adani Ports & SEZ Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Ashok Leyland Ltd - (14/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

JSW Steel Ltd - Consolidated (14/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Larsen & Toubro Ltd - (14/05/2012)

Economic and Political News

India to grow at 7.5% in FY2013: UN Report

SKS Micro Fin shuts 78 branches in Andhra Pradesh

May 11, 2012

May 12, 2012

Dr Reddy's, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Graphite India, Goodyear

May 13, 2012

May 14, 2012

May 16, 2012

May 17, 2012

Blue Star, J K Lakshmi Cements

May 18, 2012

Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam

May 19, 2012

Coal India, St Bk of India, Tata Steel, HT Media

May 20, 2012

May 21, 2012

May 22, 2012

Adani Enterp., Adani Power, Zee Entertainment

May 23, 2012

Tata Power Co., Power Fin.Corpn.

May 24, 2012

Rural Elec.Corp., Tata Global, LMW, Jyothy Laboratories

May 25, 2012

GSPL, Madras Cements, Hitachi

May 26, 2012

May 15, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

May 11, 2012

Industrial Production YoY

Producer Price Index (mom)