MAS278: Probability and Statistical Inference Tutorial 2

1. In a certain assembly plant, equal numbers of autos are produced on each of the ve working days, Monday through Friday. If 5% of those produced on Monday or Friday have major problems, and 1% of those produced on the other three days have major problems, nd the probability that an auto with major defects was produced on a Monday or a Friday. Let M, T, . . . , F denote the days Monday through Friday, and let D denote the production of an auto with major defects. We are given P (M ) = P (T ) = = P (F ) = P (D|M F ) = 0.05 P D|(M F )C We must nd P (M F |D). P (M F |D) = P ((M F ) D) P (D) P (D|M F )P (M F ) = P ((D (M F )) + P (D (M F )C ) P (D|M F )P (M F ) = P (D|M F )P (M F ) + P ((D|(M F )C ) P ((M F )C ) 1 0.05 5 + 1 10 5 = = 1 1 1 1 13 0.05 5 + 5 + 0.01 1 5 + 5 = 0.01 1 5

2. A government task force is considering the feasibility of setting up a national screening program to detect child abuse. Consultants for the group estimate that one child in 90 is abused, a physician can detect an abused child 90% of the time, and a screening program would incorrectly label 3% of all non-abused children as abused. (a) What is the probability that a child is not actually abused, given that the screening program diagnoses him or her as abused?

Let A denote that a child is abused, and let D denote that a physician labels a child as abused. Then, using the consultant estimates, 1 90 P (D|A) = 0.90 P (A) = P D|AC and P AC |D = = = = = P AC D P (D) P D|AC P AC P (D A) + P (D AC ) P D|AC P AC P (D|A) P (A) + P (D|AC ) P (AC ) 1 0.03 1 90 1 1 0.9 90 + 0.03 1 90 0.748 = 0.03,

(b) Recompute the above probability, assuming the prevalence of abused children is 1 in 900 instead of 1 in 90. Now, P (A) =
1 , 900

and P AC |D
1 0.03 1 900 1 0.9 900 + 0.03 1 = 0.968

1 900

(c) What would you conclude in general about the relationship between the prevalence of the condition or disease being investigated and the magnitude of the associated misclassication probabilities? As the prevalence of the condition or disease decreases, the probability of incorrectly detecting the condition or disease increases. 3. In the game of Two-Up at the Burswood Island Casino in Perth, two identical unbiased coins are tossed. Let H denote the event that a toss results in two heads uppermost, T denote the event that a toss results in two tails uppermost, and O denote the event that a toss results in a head and a tail uppermost. (Such an event is termed Odds.)

Suppose that we bet with a single $5 chip on the event H, which pays 1 : 1 (and we retain our bet if we win). The coins are tossed repeatedly until our bet (i) wins if H (two heads) is tossed, (ii) loses if T (two tails) is tossed or 5 consecutive O are tossed, or (iii) neither wins nor loses if O is tossed, in which case our bet remains unaltered until a result is obtained in accordance with rules (i) and (ii). Such a sequence of tosses is termed a play. Let X denote our prot per play. (a) Explain, with reference to the above rules (i)(iii), why the sequences H, OH, OOH, OOOH, all lead to our winning a play. In each case, two heads are tossed on a play before either two tails are tossed on a play or ve consecutive split tosses (heads and tails on a play) occur. (b) By listing all possible sequences which lead to our winning a play, show that the probability that we win a play is 31 . 64 The winning sequences are H, OH, OOH, OOOH, OOOOH. 1 4 1 1 P (OH) = 2 4 2 1 1 P (OOH) = 2 4 P (H) = P (OOOH) = P (OOOOH) = 1 2
3

1 4

1 1 2 4 P (win) = P (H) + P (OH) + P (OOH) + P (OOOH) + P (OOOOH)

4

=
i=0

1 2

1 4

31 = 64 (c) What is the probability mass function for X?

x f (x)

-$5 $5
33 64 31 64

(d) Compute E(X) and explain briey what this value means. E(X) = $5 33 31 + $5 64 64 = $0.156

This gives the average winnings per play.