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COSMOLOGICAL
INFERENCE
Michael D. Schneider
Durham
Consider cross-covariance
between cluster number
counts and cosmic shear
power spectrum
Power spectrum covariance
from N-body simulations
32 realizations of N-body cube 450 Mpc/h on a side
Chop into 64 sub-cubes
Window has large impact on covariance
1.0
1e!01
0.8
5000
1e!02
0.6
1e!03
500 1000
0.4
1e!04
0.2
200
0.0
1e!05
100
!0.2
112.5 Mpc/h windowed box
0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.50 1.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.50 1.00 2.00 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.50 1.00 2.00
PT !8 = 0.6
5e!02
PT !8 = 1
sim. !8 = 0.6
sim. !8 = 1
5e!03
5e!04
1e!04
k [h/Mpc]
Parameterization of the power
spectrum error distribution
Multivariate Normal distribution:
P (k) ∼ N (!
µ(θ), Σ(θ))
1.0
Specify hypercube parameter !
0.8
bounds (rescaled to unit interval)
0.6
Latin square: one point per
parameter 2
!
row and column
0.4
!
Orthogonal array: each
0.2
quadrant has a sample
!
0.0
0.8
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param 1 ●
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128 points in 6
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0.0
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0.8
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●
dimensions
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param 2 ● ● ●●
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0.0
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parameters rescaled
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0.8
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● ● param 3 ● ●●● ● ●●● ●
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0.4
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to interval [0,1]
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0.0
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0.8 ● ●● ● ●●●●●● ● ● ● ●
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param 4 ● ●●●● ●
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0.0
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0.8
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param 5 ●●●
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of points
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0.4
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0.0
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0.8
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0.4
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z= .
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Σ
, with Σij = exp{−||si − sj ||2},
z(sn) 0
where ||si − sj || denotes the distance between locations si and sj .
− n2 − 12 1 T −1
z has density π(z) = (2π) |Σ| exp{− 2 z Σ z}.
z(s)
0
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!2
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1
z(s)
0
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1
z(s)
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s
model for z(s) can be extended to continuous s Higdon, Williams, Gattiker (LANL)
Conditioning on some observations of z(s)
2
1
z(s)
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z(s )
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contitional realizations
1
z(s)
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
s
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Z
Z
20 20
15 15
20 20
10 15 10 15
Y Y 10
5 10 5
5 X 5 X
42
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Z
20
20
15
20 15
10 20
15 10
Y 15
10 Y
5
X 5 10
5 X
5
z(s)
mode amp
mode amp
.
.
ha
ha
alp
alp
A A
EMULATOR
Power spectrum emulator
Multivariate power spectrum output decomposed into
incomplete orthogonal basis (achieves dimension reduction):
µ(k, θ) = Φµ (k) w(θ) + "µ !µ ∼ N (0, λ−1
! )
0.90
!
!
!
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20000
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0.85
!
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sigma_8
0.80
!
5000
!
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0.75
2000
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0.70
!
P(k)
!
1.10
500
! !
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200
1.05
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100
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ns
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1.00
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0.90
!
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0.001 0.005 0.050 0.500
0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90
k
0.5
0.0
!0.5
!1.0
!
!1.5
!2.0
!2.5
k
Covariance matrix
parameterization
Generalized Cholesky decomposition (Pouramahdi et. al 2007)
Σ−1
y (θ) = TT
(θ) D −1
(θ) T(θ)
Components of T are unconstrained:
ϕij ≡ −Tij 2 ≤ i ≤ ny , j = 1, . . . , i − 1
Impose prior structure on covariance with a ( θ independent) conjugate Gaussian
prior on ϕ (allows “shrinking” to constant T)
ϕ ∼ N (ϕ̄, Cϕ )
Prior mean can be set from sample covariance of design runs
Model ϕ as GP just like mean and “variance”
ny (ny − 1)
ϕi (θ) ∼ GP (i , Σϕ (θ; λϕ,i ,ϕ,i )) i = 1, . . . ,
2
Estimate covariance at each design point simultaneously - fewer realizations needed
Simplified emulator
Simulation outputs reduced to mean and covariance estimates at
∗ ∗
each design point, µ̃ , D̃
9
Black: N-body
var(P (k)) ∝ P (k) 2
Red: model
8
Blue: mock data
7
!
Covariance is diagonal
log(P(k))
!
! !
! !
6
Assume the same number !
!
!
! !!
! !
!!!
!
This gives more !
3
noticeable differences
in posteriors for later !3 !2 !1 0 1
amplitude slope
PC1 ! !
PC2 ! !
PC3 ! !
PC4 ! !
PC5 ! !
Emulator correlations
Marginal posterior samples given design runs
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Parameter
0
posteriors
4
Density
2
the 2 “cosmological 5
30 pt. design: sample cov.
amplitude
30 pt. design: sample cov.
slope
parameters” 4
PC weight 1 PC weight 2
0.3
Density
0.2
0.1
0.0
!5 0 5
PC weights of variance
Variance parameters
Marginal posterior distributions of PC weights for the
power spectrum variance
Summary
Our method uses limited numbers of simulations to calibrate a
model for the power spectrum sample variance distribution.
µ |w , λ!µ ∼ N (Φµ w
∗ ∗ ∗ −1
, λ!µ I), λ!µ ∼ Γ(aµ , bµ )
After marginalization over GP realizations: