Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative tracking negative cues
from global markets. Asian stocks fell for a second day as U.S. service industries
expanded less than forecast.
Domestic Indices
The US markets closed lower yesterday amongst a mixed set of data releases. The
stocks came under pressure following the release of a report from the Institute for
Supply Management showing an unexpected slowdown in the pace of growth in
the service sector in the month of April. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index
dropped to 53.5 in April from 56.0 in March. The markets largely shrugged off the
release of a Labor Department report showing a bigger than expected drop in
initial jobless claims in the week ended April 28th, with traders looking ahead to
the release of the monthly jobs report on Friday.
Indian shares fell for a second consecutive session on Thursday, with heavyweight
auto, metal and banking shares pacing the declines. The rupee hit a fresh fourmonth low of 53.45 against the dollar, as overseas investors awaited more clarity
on how the government will resolve tax policy issues like GAAR.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,181 / 5,195 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 17,242 17,332 / 5,210 5,232 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
17,181 / 5,195 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
17,091 17,030 / 5,174 5,159 levels.
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
(0.9) (150.7) 17,151
Nifty
(1.0)
(50.8)
5,188
MID CAP
(1.0)
(64.2)
6,235
SMALL CAP
(1.0)
(68.0)
6,710
BSE HC
(0.2)
(11.2)
6,787
BSE PSU
(1.5) (104.4)
7,104
BANKEX
(1.7) (206.6) 11,654
AUTO
(2.4) (253.9) 10,209
METAL
(1.8) (192.4) 10,834
OIL & GAS
(0.7)
(51.1)
7,868
0.7
40.9
5,787
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE IT
Global Indices
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
(0.5)
(62.0) 13,207
NASDAQ
(1.2)
(35.6)
3,024
FTSE
0.2
8.4
5,767
Nikkei
0.3
29.3
9,380
Hang Seng
(0.3)
(59.6) 21,250
Straits Times
0.0
0.9
3,007
Shanghai Com
0.1
1.6
2,440
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
$46.7
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
17,030
17,091
17,181
17,242
17,332
INFY
(1.9)
(0.9)
NIFTY
5,159
5,174
5,195
5,210
5,232
WIT
(1.0)
(0.1)
$9.5
IBN
(4.9)
(1.6)
$31.8
HDB
(1.4)
(0.5)
$33.0
Indian ADRs
News Analysis
RBI releases Basel3 Guidelines

Reliance Industries fined `6,600cr for lower KG-D6 output
IRBs stock plunges 11% as Chairman is being investigated in murder case
4QFY2012 Result Reviews Marico, Aventis, KEC, ATXL, Finolex Cables
4QFY2012 Result Previews Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNL
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,055
429
Declines
1,719
1,046
107
68
Unchanged
Net Inflows (April 30, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
2,114
1,573
541
(1,865)
43,461
Volumes (` cr)
725
876
(152)
(676)
(6,249)
BSE
1,921
NSE
10,004
MFs
FII Derivatives (May 03, 2012)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
Open Interest
Index Futures
1,152
1,389
(237)
8,599
Stock Futures
1,022
1,238
(216)
20,412
Gainers / Losers
Gainers
Company
Pipavav Defence
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
87
8.5
IRB Infra
United Phosphorus
127
5.9
Hero MotoCorp
Shree Renuka Sug
32
4.4
Educomp Sol.
Godrej Cons.
567
3.4
Sintex Ind.
Glenmark Pharma
337
2.2
Aditya Birla Nuvo
www.angelbroking.com
Price (`)
chg (%)
150
(10.9)
2,072
(7.7)
187
(5.4)
67
(5.3)
884
(5.0)
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
RBI releases Basel3 Guidelines

What the guidelines entail: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released the final guidelines
regarding the Basel-3 norms yesterday. Amongst other details, the key point is that
the banks will have to achieve a minimum Core Equity Tier-I capital adequacy
(CET1) of 5% by FY2014, which in a staggered manner will then have to be
increased to 8% by FY2018.
RBI Guidelines for transitional arrangements for Basel-3 norms

Minimum capital ratios
Minimum Common Equity Tier 1
Capital conservation buffer (CCB)
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
4.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
0.6
1.3
1.9
2.5
Minimum CET1+ CCB
4.5
6.2
6.8
7.4
Minimum Tier 1 capital
6.5
Minimum Total Capital
Minimum Total Capital +CCB
9.6
10.2
10.9
11.5
20
40
60
80
100
100
Phase-in of all deductions from CET1 (in %)

Source: Company, Angel Research
Immediate impact: For 27 banks under our coverage (comprising 85% of the
sector), as on FY2012 none of them are estimated to be below the immediate
threshold of 5% of CET1 to be achieved by FY2014. However, in our view by
FY2014, almost all banks will look to maintain a minimum CET1 of at least 8% to
be comfortably above the minimum requirements.
Based on this, a handful of banks including primarily a few small PSU banks like
Central Bank, Vijaya Bank and UCO Bank would be the only ones that would be
below the 8% threshold. This is because, for most other banks post the government
infusion already announced, they are likely to be above 8% CET1 from FY2013
itself. Few others such as Corporation Bank, IOB, IDBI and United Bank would also
be marginally below 8%. SBI is likely to be the only large-cap that may end up
below 8% (unless their risk-weighted asset growth lags total asset growth). In case
of the smaller banks, since they are trading well below 1x P/ABV, capital raising
would result in dilution in EPS of 4% to 18% and in book value to the extent of 2%
to 5% of our current estimates. In case of SBI, dilution would be book-accretive but
EPS-dilutive.
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Exhibit 1: Shortfall (below 8% core tier-I capital) for banks under our coverage as of FY2014E
Core Tier-1
cap FY11
Capital
Infusion
Retained Earnings
FY2013-14
CET1
FY14
CET1 %
FY14
Shortfall
for 8%
Shortfall
(Rs cr)
Dilution
required
EPS
impact
ABVPS
impact
FEDBK
5,084
2,045
7,129
13.3
0.0%
0.0%
J&KBK
3,444
2,000
5,444
12.2
0.0%
0.0%
SIB
1,650
993
2,644
11.1
0.0%
0.0%
DENABK
3,356
151
2,084
5,591
10.5
0.0%
0.0%
HDFCBK
Bank
24,055
15,557
39,612
10.4
0.0%
0.0%
INDBK
7,842
4,593
12,436
10.4
0.0%
0.0%
ICICIBK
47,547
13,409
60,956
9.9
0.0%
0.0%
CANBK
17,549
8,959
26,508
9.8
0.0%
0.0%
ALLBK
7,597
1,462
4,924
13,984
9.7
0.0%
0.0%
OBC
10,170
3,593
13,763
9.3
0.0%
0.0%
BOB
19,063
1,613
12,749
33,425
9.3
0.0%
0.0%
SYNBK
6,640
866
3,571
11,078
9.0
0.0%
0.0%
ANDHBK
6,436
3,159
9,595
8.9
0.0%
0.0%
AXSB
18,084
11,875
29,960
8.6
0.0%
0.0%
PNB
18,958
2,875
12,811
34,645
8.4
0.0%
0.0%
BOM
2,509
995
1,566
5,069
8.4
0.0%
0.0%
BOI
15,282
2,083
8,210
25,574
8.2
0.0%
0.0%
YESBK
3,683
3,044
6,727
8.0
0.0%
0.0%
UNBK
11,027
1,005
5,189
17,221
8.0
0.0%
0.0%
CRPBK
7,086
3,681
10,768
7.8
0.2
285
0.7
-3.4%
-1.7%
UTDBK
3,546
305
1,616
5,467
7.8
0.2
159
2.3
-4.7%
-2.7%
IDBI
12,058
5,293
5,776
23,127
7.8
0.2
717
7.1
-3.7%
-1.8%
IOB
7,775
1,978
2,960
12,713
7.6
0.4
754
8.4
-6.7%
-3.8%
UCOBK
4,809
759
2,751
8,319
7.2
0.8
880
11.2
-10.5%
-2.6%
SBI
78,812
7,900
33,375
120,087
7.0
1.0
16,492
7.7
-4.8%
5.7%
VIJAYA
3,258
147
1,185
4,589
6.9
1.1
694
11.9
-12.3%
-4.7%
CENTBK
7,631
1,000
2,282
10,913
6.4
1.6
2,671
27.2
-17.9%
-2.5%
Medium-term impact: The immediate impact is restricted to few smaller banks (of
which, in case of the three most exposed banks vis. Central Bank, Vijaya Bank and
UCO bank we have a Neutral / Reduce rating). However, in the medium-term in
our view the Basel 3 guidelines imply significant capital shortage for the Indian
Banking system. By the end of FY2018, as the minimum CET1 requirement itself
moves to 8%, we believe most of the banks would look to maintain closer to 910% CET1 capital adequacy.
At the same time, if we factor in 17% asset growth for the sector between FY201418E and assume that average ROEs for the sector improve by 100-200bps, then
based on retained earnings alone, CET1 is estimated to decline to 7.9% from the
current 9.1% estimated for FY2012. Even if on average, the sector is to maintain
9% CET1 this implies a capital shortage of about `1.4lakh cr and at 10% CET1, a
shortage of Rs2.6lakh cr. This amounts to 14% and 27% of the sectors networth,
respectively, or an additional equity requirement of 2.5%-4.5% every year for the
next 6 years.
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Exhibit 2: Movement of Core Tier-I ratio* over FY2012-FY2018E

Year (` cr)
Core Tier 1
RWA
Core Tier 1 ratio
FY2012
431,276
4,708,821
9.2
FY2013
489,196
5,555,887
8.8
FY2014
557,604
6,554,308
8.5
FY2015
638,456
7,668,540
8.3
FY2016
734,224
8,972,192
8.2
FY2017
844,358
10,497,465
8.0
FY2018
971,012
12,282,034
7.9
Source: Company; Note:*For our coverage universe which account for ~85% of overall industry
Exhibit 3: Sector wide shortfall as of FY2018E

Core Tier-I
ratio - FY18
Shortfall
(ppt)
Shortfall
(` cr)
% of Core FY18
tier-I capital
Sector wide shortfall at 9%
7.9
1.1
139,594
14.4%
Sector wide shortfall at 10%
7.9
2.1
262,944
27.1%
Shortfall
New Bank licenses: In our view, the issue of more new bank licenses than the
earlier anticipated 3-4, including to some large corporates, with each of them
looking to invest about `5,000-10,000cr of equity capital, was one of the key risks
on the horizon for the banking sector. However, in light of Basel 3 requirements,
even if the RBI does give more new bank licenses, in our view in light of the capital
shortage in the banking sector post Basel 3 requirements, over a 6 year period,
this would still not amount to a supply glut. On the contrary, even after the
`30,000cr-40,000cr of fresh capital, there would still be significant capital
shortage which would have to be met by the incumbents.
Positive implications of capital shortage: For the sector as a whole, in our view,
even after factoring in new bank licenses, we expect intensity of balance sheet
competition to be low especially from the PSU banks. As a result, we continue to
have a positive outlook on overall margins and ROEs from a one-year +
perspective (notwithstanding any short-term re-pricing and asset quality related
volatility in margins).
The benefit of this will be especially enjoyed by those banks which already have
high capital adequacy (main beneficiaries include ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank) or
which can raise equity at high book-accretive premiums (such as Axis Bank and
Yes Bank). In our view, these banks will stand to benefit from high
margins/ROAs/ROEs as well as market share gains from a medium-term
perspective. Of these, taking into account valuations as well, we reiterate Axis
Bank, ICICI Bank and Yes Bank as our top picks.
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Reliance Industries fined `6,600cr for lower KG-D6 output

The Oil Ministry has imposed a penalty of ~ `6,600cr (US$1.2bn) on Reliance
Industries (RIL) for the steep fall in gas output from the KG-D6 block. Production
from KG-D6 had gradually declined to 35mmscmd in 4QFY2012 from
51mmscmd in 4QFY2011. The penalty for lower production stood at US$457mn
and US$778mn for FY2011 and FY2012, respectively. The Oil Ministry stated that
RIL had violated the production sharing contract (PSC) and wilfully drilled fewer
wells than what it had committed in its approved plan, Amended Initial
Development Plan (AIDP). However, RIL had stated earlier that unexpected geology
had resulted in decline in gas production. We await further clarity on this issue
from RIL. Until then, we maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of
`872.
IRBs stock plunges 11% as Chairman is being investigated

in murder case
As per media reports, IRBs Chairman, Virendra Mhaiskar, is one of the 10 people
identified by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) of being potentially involved
in the killing of Satish Shetty (RTI activist) in 2010. The outbreak of this news led to
a decline in IRBs stock by as much as 18%; however, the stock recovered and
closed down by 11%.
As per the clarification given by the company to stock exchanges, the deceased RTI
activist's brother had named various people, including Mr. Mhaiskar, as suspects.
The Police Department had conducted an inquiry in the matter and given a clean
chit to Mr. Mhaiskar. However, the deceased's brother was not happy with the
investigation conducted by the department; and upon his petition, the state
government had handed over the investigation to CBI. During the course of the
investigation, CBI has, along with several other suspects, asked Mr. Mhaiskar and
other
two
company
officials
to
undergo
a
polygraph
test.
Mr. Mhaiskar and the companys officials have readily agreed to undergo the
polygraph test since they are confident of their non-involvement in the matter.
Fundamentally, we have a target price of `228 for IRB. However, we believe that
the stock could remain volatile until clarity emerges on this case. Thus, this event
could remain an overhang on the stock in the near term.
Result Reviews
Marico
For 4QFY2012, Marico posted 22.9% yoy growth in its consolidated net sales to
`917cr, which was in-line with our estimates. Top-line growth was driven by
volume growth across categories in the domestic business as well improvement in
realizations. Maricos international business also posted strong organic growth of
24% yoy. The companys OPM stood at 12.3%, up 134bp on a yoy basis, aided by
a decline in input costs. Net profit fell by 4% yoy to `69.4cr as the company had
exceptional gain of `76cr in 4QFY11. We maintain our Neutral
recommendation on the stock.
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
FY2013E
4,669
13.0
416
6.8
30.5
FY2014E
5,467
12.9
503
8.2
28.8
Y/E
March
P/E P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
26.5
7.2
18.4
2.5
21.9
5.6
15.4
2.1
Aventis - (CMP `2,138/TP: - /Upside: -)

Aventis reported a higher than expected sales growth, while the net profit came in
below expectations. For the quarter, the company posted sales of `323cr, a rise of
16.7% yoy. On the operating front, the Gross and Operating margins came in at
50.6% and 15.3% respectively. While the Gross margins were in line with
expectations, the OPMs came in higher than the expectations of 14.6%. However,
in spite of the higher than expected improvement in the sales and OPM front, the
net profit came in at `40.1cr, V/s expectations of `51.5cr, on account of higher
than expected deprecations expenses during the quarter. Currently the stock is
valued at 20.5xCY2013E earnings. We maintain a Neutral stance on the stock.
Y/E
March
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
CY2012E
1,482
15.0
217
94
18.6
22.6
4.0
21.5
3.2
CY2013E
1,660
15.0
240 104
17.6
20.5
3.3
15.6
2.3
KEC International (CMP: `56/TP: `73 /Upside: 31%)

KEC International (KEC) posted a strong set of numbers for 4QFY2012, exceeding
our expectations. The companys consolidated revenue grew strongly by 32.7% yoy
to `2,069cr (`1,559cr), which was 8.8% higher than our estimate of `1,902cr.
Stellar growth was mainly due to strong execution in the international transmission
business, delivering robust 68.7% yoy growth.
On the operating front, EBITDA margin saw a ~230bp yoy contraction to 8.2%,
slightly better than our estimate of 8.0%. The companys margin was primarily
impacted by higher raw-material cost. Interest expense grew by 28.2% yoy to
`41cr on the back of higher interest rates. PAT declined by 5.3% yoy to `74cr,
9.1% higher than our estimate of `68.2cr and consensus estimate of `62.9cr.
Order book at the end of the quarter stood at `8,572cr, majorly aided by robust
order inflows totaling `1,800cr during the quarter. Strong order accretion since the
past few quarters is mainly attributable to the companys diversified business
operations, with equal exposure to domestic and international markets.
At the CMP, the stock trades at cheap valuation of 4.6x FY2014E PE. Thus,
we recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `73.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
P/E P/BV
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
6,686
8.5
271 10.6
26.0
5.3
1.0
5.3
0.5
FY2014E
7,200
8.7
313 12.2
24.1
4.6
0.8
4.3
0.4
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Automotive Axles (CMP: `525/TP: - /Upside: -)

Automotive Axles (ATXL) reported modest 6.3% yoy (1% qoq) growth in net sales to
`296cr in 2QSY2012, which was in-line with growth in the medium and heavy
commercial vehicle segment (up 5.5% yoy). EBITDA margin remained stable at
12.5% on stable commodity prices. As a result, EBITDA grew by 5.8% yoy to `37cr.
Led by higher other income (`2cr as against `0.1cr in 2QSY2011), net profit
reported 4.6% yoy (down 2.5% qoq) growth to `19cr. At `525, we believe the
stock is fairly valued at 9.3x its SY2013E earnings. We, therefore, maintain our
Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
March
(` cr)
(%)
SY2012E
1,211
SY2013E
1,390
P/E P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
11.9
76
50.5
27.9
11.5
85
56.3
25.3
10.4
2.6
5.9
0.7
9.3
2.1
5.1
0.6
Finolex Cables (CMP: `34 / TP: `60 / Upside: 78%)

Finolex Cables announced a strong set of numbers for 4QFY2012. The companys
net sales grew by 21.1% qoq and 12.1% yoy to `605cr on the back of strong sales
in the electrical segment. The electrical cables segment registered 39.5% qoq and
21.3% yoy growth in revenue to `506cr. While the companys other two segments
communication cables and copper rods division continued their poor run,
witnessing a decline of 27.4% and 36.7% yoy in revenue, respectively. The
companys EBITDA increased by 45.9% yoy to `58cr (`40cr) on the back of higher
revenue and margin expansion. EBITDA margin expanded by 223bp yoy and
136bp qoq to 9.6% on account of lower raw-material costs. Raw-material cost as
a percentage of sales declined to 74.9% in 4QFY2012 compared to 80.2% in
4QFY2011. PAT increased by 139% yoy to `45cr (`19cr) on the back of margin
expansion, lower forex loss, higher other income and tax adjustments. Other
income increased by 130% yoy to `9cr, while forex loss declined by 15.6% to
`10cr. Consequently, PAT margin increased by 391bp yoy to 7.4% (3.5%). We
currently have a Buy recommendation on the stock. We may revise our estimates
and target price post an interaction with management.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
P/E P/BV
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2013E
2,341
8.5
122
8.0
14.8
4.2
0.6
1.9
0.2
FY2014E
2,656
8.8
152 10.0
16.6
3.4
0.5
1.2
0.1
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
Result Previews
Bank of Baroda
Bank of Baroda is scheduled to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect the
bank to report healthy net interest income growth of 7.3% yoy to `2,804cr. Noninterest income is expected to grow higher by 14.7% yoy to `957cr. While overall
operating income growth is expected to come in at 9.1% yoy, a 12.1% yoy decline
in operating expenses is expected to lead to an improvement in cost-to-income
ratio to 35.1% from 43.6% in 4QFY2011. Provisioning expenses are expected to
grow by 5.4% yoy, which coupled with expected tax expenses of `521cr compared
to `61cr in 4QFY2011 would result in nearly flat yoy growth in net profit to
`1,297cr. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 1.1x FY2014E ABV. We maintain our
Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `943.
Corporation Bank
Corporation Bank is slated to announce its 4QFY2012 results. We expect net
interest income of the bank to grow by healthy 17.8% yoy to `897cr. Non-interest
income is expected to decline by 3.3% yoy to `474cr. While operating income is
expected to grow by 9.6% yoy, operating expenses are expected to decline by
5.0% yoy to `480cr, leading to healthy 19.4% growth in pre-provisioning profits to
`892cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to increase by 9.0% yoy. Net profit is
expected to increase by 20.4% yoy to `416cr. Currently, we have a Buy rating on
the stock with a target price of `508.
ITNL
We expect IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) to post a weak set of numbers for
the quarter on account of high base in 4QFY2011. The companys revenue is
expected to decline by 9.0% yoy to `1,507cr. We expect the company to register
flat EBITDAM of 24.8%. Further, on the back of high interest cost, which is
expected to come in at `200cr, we expect ITNLs earnings to decline by 30.1% yoy
to `111.3cr. We recommend Buy on the stock with a target price of `265.
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Bank of Baroda - (04/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,307
1,294
1,290
Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (05/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
6,942
6,390
6,260
11
EBITDA
1,541
1,650
(7)
1,413
EBITDA margin (%)
22.2
25.8
Net profit
757
865
22.6
(12)
669
13
Market Outlook
May 4, 2012
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma - (07/05/2012)

Particulars (` cr)
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
6,942
6,390
6,260
11
EBITDA
1,541
1,650
(7)
1,413
EBITDA margin (%)
22.2
25.8
Net profit
757
865
22.6
(12)
669
13
HDFC - (07/05/2012)
Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
4Q FY12E
4Q FY11
y-o-y (%)
3Q FY12
q-o-q (%)
1,006
1,142
-12
981
Economic and Political News
Oil Ministry disallows US$1.4bn cost recovery by RIL from KG-D6

Government to infuse `30,000cr in Air India over nine years
Mobile operators add 8mn users in March 2012
Orissa government mulls cap on iron ore output
Corporate News
Dr. Reddy's gets U.S. FDA nod for osteoporosis drug

Cipla slashes cancer drug prices by up to 76%
Bosch to invest `300cr on capacity expansion
Pantaloon raises `200cr from Bennett Coleman
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Result Calendar
Date
Company
May 04, 2012
Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNL, D B Corp, ITD Cementation
May 05, 2012
Grasim Inds, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Syndicate Bank, UCO Bank, United Bank, Bank of Maharashtra
May 06, 2012
May 07, 2012
HDFC, Bosch India, GSK Pharma, GlaxoSmith Con, Andhra Bank, South Ind.Bank
May 08, 2012
Kotak Mah. Bank, Asian Paints, Hindalco, IDFC, Shriram Trans., Central Bank, CESC, Dena Bank, CEAT
May 09, 2012
Punjab Natl.Bank, Ranbaxy, ABB, Union Bank, IRB Infra, NIIT
May 10, 2012
NTPC, Cipla, Lupin, Canara Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Reliance Capital, Sintex, Apollo Tyres, HEG
May 11, 2012
Dr Reddy's, Essar Oil, Indian Bank, Federal Bank, Thermax, Graphite India, Goodyear
May 12, 2012
J & K Bank, Madhucon Proj, Consolidated Co, Relaxo
May 13, 2012
May 14, 2012
Mundra Port, Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas
May 15, 2012
Dishman Pharma
May 16, 2012
J K Lakshmi Cements
May 17, 2012
Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam
May 18, 2012
St Bk of India
May 19, 2012
Force Motors
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
May 04, 2012
May 10, 2012
May 11, 2012
Germany
PMI Services
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
US
Unnemployment rate
China
Exports YoY%
UK
BOE Announces rates
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
India
Industrial Production YoY
US
Estimated
Value
Apr-12
52.60
52.60
Thousands
Mar-12
120.00
160.00
Mar-12
8.20
8.20
% Change
Mar-12
8.90
8.40
% Ratio
May-12
0.50
0.50
% Change
Feb-12
(2.30)
(2.50)
% Change
Feb-12
4.10
--
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Mar-12
--
--
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
11.90
12.10
China
% Change
Mar-12
3.60
3.40
% Change
Mar-12
6.89
--
% Change
Mar-12
0.30
0.20
May 14, 2012
India
May 15, 2012
US
Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Monthly Wholesale Prices
YoY%
Consumer price index (mom)
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
Dec-11
(0.30)
--
Germany
GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
Dec-11
1.50
--
Euro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Mar-12
2.70
--
US
Industrial Production
Mar-12
--
--
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Mar-12
654.00
--
US
Building permits
Thousands
Mar-12
764.00
--
UK
% Change
Mar-12
3.60
--
Value
Apr-12
(19.90)
--
UK
Jobless claims change

Euro-Zone Consumer
Confidence
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Mar-12
3.50
--
US
Existing home sales
Millions
Mar-12
4.48
--
May 16, 2012
May 22, 2012
Euro Zone
Market Strategy
May 04, 2012
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

(%)
Exhibit 2: IIP trends

(%)
9.8
10.0
12.0
9.4
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.3
7.8
7.6
7.4
8.0
7.7
6.9
5.8
5.3
6.0
7.0
6.0
4.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
3.7
4.1
3.4
2.5
2.5
1.1
2.0
(6.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.4
9.8
10.0
9.9
7.7
8.0
Feb-12
Jan-12
Services PMI
58.0
9.5
6.9
7.0
56.0
6.9
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
90
75
Reverse Repo rate
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
48.0
Sep-11
0.0
Aug-11
50.0
Jul-11
2.0
May-11
52.0
Apr-11
4.0
Jun-11
54.0
6.0
May-11
10.0
Dec-11
(5.0)
Source: CSO, Angel Research
12.0
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
2QFY10
1QFY10
4QFY09
3QFY09
(4.0)
May-11
(2.0)
5.0
Apr-11
Mar-11
6.0
9.5
9.4
10.0
8.5
CRR
8.00
8.00
60
7.00
45
30
6.00
4.75
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
4.00
Apr-11
Mar-12
Feb-12
Jan-12
Dec-11
Nov-11
Oct-11
Sep-11
Aug-11
Jul-11
Jun-11
May-11
Apr-11
Apr-12
15
(15)
7.00
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
115
2,236
1,432
1,647
14.7
14.7
7.0
8.0
16.4
14.4
3.5
3.0
22.8
22.3
1.6
1.3
United Phosphorus
Buy
127
183
5,850
8,191
8,764
16.5
16.5
17.1
18.3
7.4
6.9
1.2
1.1
17.5
16.2
0.8
0.7
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
298
345
2,547
2,691
3,032
15.6
15.5
29.4
32.8
10.2
9.1
2.4
1.9
26.5
23.6
0.9
0.8
Apollo Tyres
Buy
85
100
4,274
13,580
15,007
10.1
10.2
10.5
12.5
8.1
6.8
1.3
1.1
21.8
30.7
0.5
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
30
37
7,916
15,008
16,906
9.5
9.5
2.6
3.1
11.6
9.6
2.4
2.1
15.5
17.0
0.6
0.5
Automotive Axle
Neutral
520
785
1,211
1,390
11.9
11.5
50.5
56.3
10.3
9.2
2.6
2.1
27.9
25.3
0.7
0.6
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,560
1,811
45,154
21,966
24,774
19.8
19.0
111.7
120.7
14.0
12.9
5.4
4.3
43.1
37.1
1.7
1.4
Bharat Forge
Buy
322
372
7,504
7,173
7,998
16.3
16.5
22.3
26.6
14.4
12.1
2.8
2.4
21.0
21.0
1.1
1.0
Bosch India
Neutral
8,639
27,126
9,335
10,564
18.3
18.3
394.5
439.3
21.9
19.7
4.4
3.7
20.1
18.7
2.5
2.2
CEAT
Buy
104
140
355
5,057
5,620
5.4
5.6
22.2
31.1
4.7
3.3
0.5
0.5
11.9
16.8
0.3
0.3
Exide Industries
Buy
122
155
10,353
5,812
6,710
16.2
16.5
7.6
8.9
16.1
13.7
3.0
2.5
19.4
19.8
1.4
1.2
FAG Bearings
Accumulate
1,493
1,594
2,482
1,531
1,748
18.8
18.5
118.0
132.8
12.7
11.3
2.7
2.2
24.0
21.9
1.4
1.1
Hero Motocorp
Neutral
2,072
41,382
26,106
29,296
15.0
15.2
140.3
148.1
14.8
14.0
7.0
5.4
54.8
43.3
1.3
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
81
113
334
8,058
9,025
5.4
5.5
24.8
32.2
3.3
2.5
0.4
0.3
11.4
13.2
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate
705
802
43,304
35,095
40,213
10.7
10.5
44.6
48.7
15.8
14.5
2.8
2.5
18.8
18.1
0.9
0.8
Maruti
Buy
1,291
1,510
37,310
42,683
48,736
7.1
7.5
86.6
100.6
14.9
12.8
2.1
1.9
15.3
15.5
0.7
0.6
Motherson Sumi
Buy
173
216
6,686
11,167
12,516
9.5
10.0
11.3
14.4
15.2
12.0
3.3
2.7
23.3
24.7
0.7
0.6
Subros
Neutral
31
186
1,225
1,393
8.5
8.2
4.2
5.0
7.4
6.3
0.8
0.7
10.3
11.8
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Accumulate
301
328
81,110 191,183 213,150
12.6
12.6
38.7
42.9
7.8
7.0
2.7
2.1
39.8
33.9
0.5
0.5
TVS Motor
Buy
39
55
1,862
7,982
8,816
6.4
6.3
5.0
5.6
7.8
7.1
1.4
1.2
18.9
18.2
0.2
0.2
ABB*
Sell
794
503
16,818
8,926
10,220
7.7
7.5
18.6
20.9
42.6
37.9
5.8
5.2
14.5
14.5
1.9
1.6
BGR Energy
Sell
327
274
2,359
4,170
5,396
11.5
10.4
27.2
30.4
12.0
10.8
2.0
1.8
17.3
17.4
1.2
1.1
BHEL
Neutral
225
55,120
46,344
46,916
18.3
18.6
23.5
24.1
9.6
9.4
1.9
1.7
21.3
18.9
1.1
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
186
221
1,669
3,250
3,551
5.9
5.9
12.4
15.8
14.9
11.8
3.1
2.6
21.2
23.8
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
128
164
8,234
12,936
14,101
9.6
10.0
10.9
11.7
11.8
10.9
2.0
1.8
18.4
17.3
0.7
0.6
Jyoti Structures
Buy
43
67
355
2,622
2,801
10.6
11.0
10.9
13.4
4.0
3.2
0.5
0.4
12.7
13.9
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
56
72
1,432
6,865
7,650
8.5
8.7
9.7
12.1
5.7
4.6
1.1
0.9
27.6
27.0
0.5
0.4
LMW
Buy
1,623
2,609
1,828
2,663
3,130
12.8
12.8
185.0
217.4
8.8
7.5
1.7
1.5
21.2
21.7
0.2
0.2
Thermax
Neutral
430
5,126
5,473
5,497
10.1
9.8
30.4
28.7
14.2
15.0
2.7
2.4
20.5
16.9
0.8
0.7
Capital Goods
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Cement
ACC
Neutral
1,205
22,631
11,018
12,663
19.9
21.2
70.7
81.2
17.1
14.9
3.0
2.7
18.0
19.0
1.8
1.5
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
146
22,467
10,035
11,504
23.5
23.8
10.1
10.6
14.5
13.9
2.8
2.6
18.5
19.4
1.9
1.5
India Cements
Neutral
86
2,643
4,423
4,906
18.2
18.8
9.9
12.7
8.7
6.8
0.7
0.7
8.6
10.5
0.9
0.8
J K Lakshmi Cements
Buy
65
79
797
1,880
2,201
19.0
22.6
12.2
16.4
5.4
4.0
0.6
0.5
11.9
14.3
0.6
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
145
3,449
3,434
3,777
25.5
26.1
14.1
18.1
10.3
8.0
1.5
1.3
15.2
16.9
1.6
1.4
Shree Cements
Neutral
2,808
9,781
5,552
6,193
25.7
26.0
130.3
182.0
21.6
15.4
4.5
3.8
19.1
22.3
1.5
1.1
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,413
38,720
20,116
22,655
21.3
22.5
82.1
97.5
17.2
14.5
2.7
2.4
16.8
17.4
1.8
1.8
207
302
1,091
2,014
2,294
22.4
22.4
28.4
30.8
7.3
6.7
1.0
0.8
14.1
13.3
2.3
2.6
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
15
277
2,526
2,792
5.7
6.6
1.8
2.8
8.2
5.3
0.5
0.4
5.6
8.2
0.3
0.3
Hind. Const.
Neutral
21
1,244
4,239
4,522
11.1
11.8
(1.8)
(0.8)
(11.4)
(26.3)
1.2
1.3
(9.5)
(4.7)
1.3
1.2
IRB Infra
Buy
150
228
4,974
3,821
4,582
42.3
40.2
15.0
16.9
10.0
8.8
1.5
1.3
16.3
15.9
2.9
2.7
ITNL
Buy
182
265
3,526
6,619
7,263
23.8
24.2
24.7
26.2
7.4
6.9
1.2
1.0
17.0
15.7
2.1
2.2
IVRCL Infra
Buy
59
79
1,565
5,758
6,860
9.2
9.2
4.7
6.0
12.5
9.7
0.7
0.7
6.0
7.3
0.7
0.7
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
73
104
15,523
16,017
18,359
24.4
23.5
4.2
5.0
17.4
14.6
1.5
1.4
8.8
9.7
2.3
2.0
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,200
1,641
73,460
60,258
69,900
12.1
11.5
70.7
76.3
17.0
15.7
2.5
2.2
16.1
15.2
1.4
1.2
Madhucon Proj
Buy
51
84
380
2,503
2,903
10.7
10.7
5.8
6.6
8.9
7.9
0.6
0.5
6.6
7.0
0.7
0.7
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
44
76
1,123
5,790
7,022
9.2
9.5
3.5
5.4
12.6
8.1
0.5
0.5
3.7
5.6
0.8
0.8
Patel Engg.
Neutral
104
723
3,609
3,836
13.1
13.1
14.0
14.6
7.4
7.1
0.5
0.4
6.3
6.1
1.1
1.1
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
51
1,697
10,592
12,193
8.4
8.4
2.9
4.6
17.6
11.2
0.5
0.5
3.9
3.1
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
137
199
2,063
2,989
3,315
10.6
10.6
10.2
11.3
13.5
12.2
2.1
1.8
17.6
16.3
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
230
316
1,136
6,732
7,902
9.3
9.6
27.2
35.1
8.4
6.5
0.9
0.8
11.0
12.6
0.5
0.4
Allahabad Bank
Accumulate
171
193
8,568
7,700
8,677
3.4
3.3
37.4
40.9
4.6
4.2
0.8
0.7
19.0
17.0
Andhra Bank
Neutral
116
6,488
5,284
5,998
3.3
3.2
23.6
27.0
4.9
4.3
0.8
0.7
16.5
16.7
Axis Bank
Buy
1,058
1,587
43,734
16,157
19,557
3.2
3.2
116.4
139.1
9.1
7.6
1.7
1.4
20.0
20.3
Bank of Baroda
Buy
731
943
28,618
16,013
18,849
2.7
2.7
131.4
153.3
5.6
4.8
1.0
0.9
19.7
19.2
Bank of India
Accumulate
334
386
19,141
13,558
15,551
2.5
2.4
54.9
63.1
6.1
5.3
1.0
0.9
16.8
16.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
53
62
3,122
3,665
4,107
3.5
3.5
10.7
13.5
5.0
3.9
0.7
0.6
17.8
17.5
Canara Bank
Buy
429
532
19,022
12,120
14,009
2.2
2.2
85.7
95.4
5.0
4.5
0.8
0.7
17.2
16.7
Central Bank
Reduce
95
92
7,019
6,860
7,934
2.4
2.4
13.1
19.9
7.3
4.8
0.9
0.8
10.5
13.8
Financials
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Financials
Corporation Bank
Buy
400
508
5,927
5,361
5,995
2.2
2.1
108.3
111.5
3.7
3.6
0.7
0.6
17.9
16.2
Dena Bank
Buy
92
118
3,219
3,003
3,366
3.0
2.9
23.2
25.6
4.0
3.6
0.7
0.6
18.0
16.9
Federal Bank
Neutral
415
7,087
2,766
3,163
3.4
3.3
49.5
57.2
8.4
7.2
1.1
1.0
14.0
14.5
HDFC
Neutral
667
98,496
7,244
8,625
3.3
3.3
31.2
37.2
21.4
17.9
4.2
3.7
34.2
31.3
HDFC Bank
Neutral
553
129,748
21,831
27,477
4.3
4.3
28.3
35.5
19.5
15.6
3.8
3.2
20.8
22.1
ICICI Bank
Buy
858
1,183
98,555
22,209
26,512
2.8
2.8
67.9
81.1
12.6
10.6
1.5
1.4
14.7
16.0
IDBI Bank
Buy
Indian Bank
Accumulate
IOB
Buy
J & K Bank
98
117
9,679
8,004
9,589
1.9
2.0
19.9
23.9
5.0
4.1
0.7
0.6
13.8
14.9
217
240
9,307
6,469
7,244
3.5
3.3
45.5
48.8
4.8
4.4
0.9
0.7
19.6
18.2
86
104
6,830
7,328
8,264
2.5
2.5
15.9
21.1
5.4
4.1
0.6
0.5
12.7
13.9
Neutral
907
4,397
2,420
2,792
3.5
3.6
178.0
195.8
5.1
4.6
0.9
0.8
19.5
18.6
LIC Housing Finance
Accumulate
255
286
12,125
2,108
2,607
2.6
2.6
24.5
30.6
10.5
8.4
2.0
1.7
20.1
21.4
Oriental Bank
Buy
232
285
6,760
6,431
7,315
2.7
2.6
54.4
63.8
4.3
3.6
0.6
0.5
13.6
14.3
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
844
1,138
26,745
20,708
24,094
3.5
3.5
156.3
178.7
5.4
4.7
1.0
0.8
19.7
18.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
24
2,687
1,368
1,557
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.9
6.5
6.0
1.2
1.0
19.1
17.7
St Bk of India
Buy
2,085
2,593
139,926
69,568
81,445
3.7
3.7
220.9
269.8
9.4
7.7
1.6
1.3
18.9
19.1
Syndicate Bank
Buy
103
128
6,221
7,069
7,961
3.1
3.0
23.3
27.5
4.5
3.8
0.7
0.6
17.4
17.2
UCO Bank
Neutral
76
4,775
5,727
6,443
2.5
2.5
17.8
18.8
4.3
4.1
0.8
0.8
17.8
16.2
Union Bank
Buy
222
266
11,645
10,352
11,988
2.9
2.9
40.7
49.5
5.5
4.5
0.9
0.7
16.8
17.4
United Bank
Buy
66
87
2,365
3,666
4,128
2.9
2.9
18.4
21.7
3.6
3.0
0.6
0.5
15.9
16.0
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
57
2,689
2,668
3,001
2.2
2.2
10.1
11.7
5.6
4.9
0.8
0.7
13.2
13.7
Yes Bank
Buy
338
470
11,926
3,209
4,144
2.7
2.8
33.9
41.5
10.0
8.1
2.1
1.7
23.1
23.3
3,601
34,540
10,961
12,773
16.3
16.3
120.3
142.5
29.9
25.3
9.9
7.9
36.9
34.7
3.0
2.6
557
650
6,652
5,906
6,856
6.9
7.0
22.3
28.3
24.9
19.7
10.2
7.6
45.2
44.1
1.1
1.0
1,127
15,329
3,007
3,417
21.1
22.1
37.7
42.6
29.9
26.5
35.6
28.8
129.4
120.1
5.0
4.4
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
Britannia
Buy
Colgate
Neutral
Dabur India
Accumulate
106
112
18,475
6,010
6,929
17.4
17.6
4.4
5.2
24.0
20.4
9.1
7.3
41.4
42.1
3.1
2.7
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
2,767
11,638
3,111
2,687
16.9
15.8
100.6
86.1
27.5
32.2
8.3
10.2
33.3
33.8
3.4
3.9
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
567
19,286
5,904
6,905
17.8
18.1
22.6
26.9
25.1
21.0
6.9
5.6
29.9
36.3
3.4
3.0
HUL
Neutral
434
93,723
25,546
29,031
15.2
15.3
14.1
16.1
30.8
26.9
23.4
29.0
84.3
76.7
3.5
3.1
ITC
Neutral
242
189,245
28,955
33,595
35.9
35.7
9.2
10.5
26.4
23.1
8.4
7.0
34.8
33.1
6.2
5.4
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FMCG
Marico
Neutral
179
11,010
4,669
5,467
13.0
12.9
6.8
8.2
26.5
21.9
7.2
5.6
30.5
28.8
2.4
2.0
Nestle*
Neutral
4,611
44,460
8,731
10,539
21.0
21.4
119.3
147.9
38.7
31.2
23.7
16.1
73.0
61.6
5.1
4.2
Tata Global
Buy
117
136
7,263
7,011
7,712
9.7
10.0
6.0
7.1
19.8
16.5
1.8
1.7
8.9
10.2
0.9
0.8
HCL Tech
Accumulate
514
560
35,608
22,792
25,743
17.4
17.4
37.8
43.0
13.6
12.0
3.0
2.5
22.3
21.3
1.5
1.3
Hexaware
Neutral
130
3,833
1,821
2,105
19.0
18.6
9.8
10.7
13.2
12.1
3.1
2.7
23.7
22.5
1.8
1.5
Infosys
Accumulate
2,484
2,792
142,659
37,615
42,491
31.1
30.6
158.5
174.5
15.7
14.2
3.5
3.0
22.5
20.8
3.1
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
162
177
1,809
1,758
1,972
17.0
16.6
16.8
18.6
9.7
8.7
1.3
1.2
13.6
13.2
0.7
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
101
1,792
2,042
2,139
15.2
14.9
9.6
10.9
10.5
9.3
1.8
1.5
19.2
18.0
0.8
0.7
Mahindra Satyam
Buy
77
89
9,002
7,142
8,042
15.4
15.0
7.7
8.3
10.0
9.3
1.4
1.2
13.8
13.0
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
584
2,369
2,172
2,450
16.1
15.5
53.9
58.5
10.8
10.0
2.0
1.7
18.9
17.0
0.9
0.7
Mphasis
Accumulate
379
433
7,967
5,904
6,320
18.3
17.9
38.7
41.2
9.8
9.2
1.5
1.3
14.9
13.7
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
44
61
722
1,105
1,200
16.4
16.9
7.5
9.2
5.8
4.8
1.0
0.9
17.6
19.0
0.4
0.2
Persistent
Neutral
365
1,460
1,109
1,224
23.3
22.4
37.2
40.1
9.8
9.1
1.5
1.3
15.4
14.5
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,280
250,593
57,189
66,329
29.3
28.7
63.2
70.9
20.3
18.1
6.2
5.0
30.5
27.7
4.1
3.5
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
689
750
8,789
6,030
6,511
16.3
15.7
81.1
87.0
8.5
7.9
1.7
1.4
20.1
18.0
1.4
1.2
Wipro
Neutral
412
101,375
41,918
46,879
19.4
19.9
25.1
28.7
16.5
14.4
3.1
2.6
18.6
18.3
2.1
1.7
D B Corp
Buy
208
274
3,812
1,656
1,869
26.0
26.8
14.0
16.1
14.9
12.9
3.4
2.9
24.8
24.1
2.2
1.9
HT Media
Buy
123
170
2,879
2,255
2,555
17.8
18.3
10.0
12.0
12.3
10.2
1.7
1.5
14.7
15.4
1.0
0.9
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
99
137
3,118
1,499
1,642
27.4
28.8
7.6
9.1
12.9
10.9
4.3
3.9
34.6
37.7
2.0
1.9
PVR
Neutral
148
382
625
732
17.4
16.9
12.4
15.8
11.9
9.4
1.9
2.0
8.5
9.9
0.8
0.7
Sun TV Network
Neutral
293
11,549
2,135
2,458
75.2
74.4
20.9
24.0
14.0
12.2
3.3
2.8
26.0
25.1
4.4
3.5
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
432
9,180
9,232
13,557
30.8
31.1
48.0
58.6
9.0
7.4
1.2
1.0
14.5
7.5
3.1
2.2
Coal India
Neutral
338
213,177
65,654
71,756
26.8
27.3
24.0
26.3
14.1
12.8
3.8
3.2
30.4
27.0
2.3
1.9
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
20
27
694
1,984
2,074
10.6
12.0
2.7
3.3
7.5
6.1
0.4
0.2
5.2
6.2
0.5
0.4
Hind. Zinc
Accumulate
127
139
53,471
13,043
14,223
51.8
52.8
14.8
16.6
8.6
7.6
1.7
1.4
21.2
19.9
2.4
1.8
Hindalco
Accumulate
119
136
22,754
84,638
88,753
9.6
10.5
15.2
17.3
7.8
6.9
0.7
0.6
8.7
9.2
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
680
15,173
39,161
43,958
17.8
17.9
72.2
89.5
9.4
7.6
0.8
0.8
10.1
11.4
0.6
0.6
MOIL
Neutral
255
4,276
979
1,061
45.7
46.8
24.5
26.6
10.4
9.6
1.6
1.5
16.1
15.8
2.2
1.9
Monnet Ispat
Buy
474
585
3,050
2,986
3,908
22.1
28.9
50.5
83.4
9.4
5.7
1.2
1.0
13.5
19.2
1.9
1.3
IT
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY13E
OPM(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
EPS ( )
FY13E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
Metals & Mining

Nalco
Reduce
NMDC
Accumulate
60
51
15,502
8,276
8,578
12.7
16.4
2.5
3.5
23.7
17.2
1.3
1.3
5.6
7.5
1.4
1.4
174
185
69,026
11,726
12,890
77.8
78.4
18.6
20.6
9.4
8.5
2.2
1.9
26.1
23.8
3.7
3.2
SAIL
Sesa Goa
Accumulate
95
102
39,405
52,461
62,935
18.0
18.8
13.2
14.5
7.2
6.6
0.9
0.8
12.4
12.3
1.1
1.0
Accumulate
188
206
16,343
9,067
9,316
35.7
35.5
44.5
44.3
4.2
4.2
0.9
0.8
23.5
19.5
0.4
0.1
Sterlite Inds
Buy
104
123
35,102
45,805
49,029
21.2
23.5
16.5
19.1
6.3
5.5
0.7
0.6
11.5
12.0
0.4
0.3
Tata Steel
Accumulate
448
503
43,540 141,358 142,265
11.1
13.7
45.8
58.9
9.8
7.6
0.9
0.9
10.0
11.7
0.6
0.6
Cairn India
Accumulate
344
372
65,587
15,513
16,074
74.0
69.7
51.1
48.6
6.7
7.1
1.1
1.0
18.3
14.8
3.1
2.3
GAIL
Buy
325
392
41,213
50,472
55,503
15.3
15.6
35.4
37.0
9.2
8.8
1.6
1.4
18.7
17.0
0.5
0.4
ONGC
Buy
265
319
226,507 148,157 150,563
37.6
39.5
31.0
33.6
8.5
7.9
1.5
1.4
18.8
18.1
1.2
1.0
Reliance Industries
Buy
739
872
241,940 325,734 328,669
10.9
11.7
65.8
70.1
11.2
10.6
1.2
1.1
11.9
11.5
0.7
0.7
Oil & Gas
Pharmaceuticals
Alembic Pharma
Buy
54
91
1,019
1,624
1,855
14.2
15.6
6.6
9.1
8.2
5.9
2.0
1.6
27.5
29.2
0.9
0.7
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
125
175
3,630
5,243
5,767
14.6
14.6
13.8
14.7
9.0
8.5
1.1
0.5
11.4
10.9
1.0
0.9
Aventis*
Neutral
2,138
4,924
1,401
1,569
15.3
15.0
89.7
110.3
23.8
19.4
3.9
3.1
17.1
15.4
3.0
2.5
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
734
1,016
15,028
6,196
7,443
18.5
19.5
43.3
50.8
17.0
14.5
4.4
3.5
25.4
24.8
2.4
1.9
Cipla
Buy
317
380
25,485
7,006
8,164
20.0
21.2
17.0
19.0
18.7
16.7
3.4
2.9
16.8
18.2
3.6
3.1
Dr Reddy's
Neutral
1,744
29,566
9,183
10,063
25.7
25.1
92.1
89.9
18.9
19.4
4.1
3.5
22.8
18.8
3.3
3.0
Dishman Pharma
Buy
46
91
368
1,282
1,538
17.9
17.9
10.1
13.0
4.5
3.5
0.4
0.3
8.5
10.1
1.0
0.9
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,173
18,408
2,788
3,148
35.6
35.2
87.9
96.7
24.7
22.5
8.0
6.7
34.8
32.1
5.8
5.0
Indoco Remedies
Buy
467
665
574
685
837
15.2
15.2
55.5
66.5
8.4
7.0
1.3
1.1
16.4
16.9
1.0
0.9
Ipca labs
Buy
362
443
4,553
2,907
3,541
21.5
21.5
32.7
40.6
11.1
8.9
2.8
2.2
27.8
27.7
1.7
1.4
Lupin
Buy
539
656
24,099
8,272
9,929
19.7
20.0
29.7
32.8
18.2
16.5
4.7
3.7
25.0
22.9
2.9
2.4
Orchid Chemicals
Buy
179
270
1,260
2,143
2,508
21.8
21.8
28.3
38.1
6.3
4.7
1.3
1.0
19.3
23.4
1.5
1.2
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
499
21,061
12,023
12,264
19.9
16.9
41.1
36.9
12.1
13.5
2.6
2.3
30.0
17.6
1.5
1.4
Sun Pharma
Accumulate
600
634
61,779
9,272
11,080
40.3
36.3
26.7
28.8
22.5
20.8
4.6
3.9
22.1
20.8
5.6
4.6
CESC
Buy
255
342
3,181
4,927
5,429
23.8
23.9
41.0
46.2
6.2
5.5
0.6
0.6
10.4
10.7
1.2
1.2
GIPCL
Buy
67
98
1,017
1,557
1,573
28.7
27.5
10.4
10.2
6.5
6.6
0.7
0.6
10.5
9.6
1.1
0.9
NTPC
Buy
157
201
129,413
73,558
84,843
23.4
23.6
12.6
14.1
12.5
11.1
1.6
1.4
13.3
13.6
2.5
2.3
56
78
1,655
657
875
52.0
56.1
8.4
12.7
6.7
4.4
0.4
0.4
6.3
8.9
3.8
2.8
187
31,836
9,878
12,033
44.7
46.1
9.6
13.4
19.6
14.0
1.2
1.2
6.4
8.7
5.7
4.7
Power
Real Estate
Anant Raj
Buy
DLF
Neutral
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
78
115
3,268
2,441
3,344
53.0
46.7
21.4
25.4
3.6
3.1
0.3
0.3
8.4
9.1
3.2
2.4
Real Estate
HDIL
Buy
Telecom
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
315
119,641
80,967
88,684
33.1
33.4
17.9
22.0
17.6
14.3
2.0
1.8
11.5
12.5
2.2
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
80
26,520
22,558
25,326
26.4
27.5
3.2
4.7
24.9
16.9
1.9
1.7
7.5
10.0
1.7
1.4
Rcom
Neutral
76
15,779
21,899
23,740
32.7
32.7
4.2
6.7
18.1
11.4
0.4
0.4
2.1
3.2
2.1
1.7
196
245
1,957
3,670
4,384
8.5
8.5
18.3
22.3
10.7
8.8
2.4
2.0
23.9
24.3
0.5
0.5
zOthers
Bajaj Electrical
Buy
CRISIL
Neutral
1,028
7,200
982
1,136
34.3
34.3
34.3
40.0
29.9
25.7
13.6
10.8
50.9
46.9
6.9
5.8
Finolex Cables
Buy
34
60
515
2,341
2,656
8.5
8.8
8.0
10.0
4.2
3.4
0.6
0.5
18.1
20.2
0.2
0.1
Graphite India
Buy
90
116
1,765
2,053
2,437
22.6
22.4
13.5
16.3
6.7
5.5
1.0
0.9
15.4
16.5
1.0
0.8
Greenply
Buy
203
298
489
1,800
2,047
11.1
11.6
34.1
49.6
6.0
4.1
1.1
0.9
20.2
23.7
0.5
0.4
Page Industries
Neutral
3,073
3,428
935
1,168
19.6
19.6
99.7
122.2
30.8
25.1
17.9
14.3
64.2
63.1
3.7
3.0
Sintex
Buy
67
129
1,841
5,219
5,912
16.5
16.9
15.8
21.4
4.3
3.2
0.6
0.5
14.7
17.1
0.6
0.5
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
258
439
242
1,045
1,173
12.3
12.4
61.5
73.2
4.2
3.5
0.8
0.7
20.2
20.4
0.5
0.5
SpiceJet
Neutral
27
1,194
5,384
6,443
(1.0)
4.1
(3.4)
2.4
(7.9)
11.3
(10.9)
23.1
0.4
0.4
Taj GVK
Buy
61
116
385
322
355
36.3
35.8
8.3
9.6
7.4
6.4
1.0
0.9
14.5
14.9
1.5
1.3
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on May 03, 2012
Market Outlook
May 04, 2012

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

(0.9) (150.7) 17,151

(1.7) (206.6) 11,654

(2.4) (253.9) 10,209

(1.8) (192.4) 10,834

OIL & GAS

RBI releases Basel3 Guidelines

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (April 30, 2012)

FII Derivatives (May 03, 2012)

Shree Renuka Sug

Aditya Birla Nuvo

RBI releases Basel3 Guidelines

RBI Guidelines for transitional arrangements for Basel-3 norms

Minimum CET1+ CCB

Minimum Tier 1 capital

Minimum Total Capital

Minimum Total Capital +CCB

Phase-in of all deductions from CET1 (in %)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: Movement of Core Tier-I ratio* over FY2012-FY2018E

Core Tier 1 ratio

Exhibit 3: Sector wide shortfall as of FY2018E

Sector wide shortfall at 9%

Sector wide shortfall at 10%

Source: Company, Angel Research

Reliance Industries fined `6,600cr for lower KG-D6 output

IRBs stock plunges 11% as Chairman is being investigated

Aventis - (CMP `2,138/TP: - /Upside: -)

KEC International (CMP: `56/TP: `73 /Upside: 31%)

Automotive Axles (CMP: `525/TP: - /Upside: -)

Finolex Cables (CMP: `34 / TP: `60 / Upside: 78%)

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Grasim Industries Ltd - Consolidated (05/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

GlaxoSmithKline Pharma - (07/05/2012)

EBITDA margin (%)

Economic and Political News

Oil Ministry disallows US$1.4bn cost recovery by RIL from KG-D6

Dr. Reddy's gets U.S. FDA nod for osteoporosis drug

May 04, 2012

Bank of Baroda, Corporation Bank, ITNL, D B Corp, ITD Cementation

May 05, 2012

May 06, 2012

May 07, 2012

May 08, 2012

May 09, 2012

Punjab Natl.Bank, Ranbaxy, ABB, Union Bank, IRB Infra, NIIT

May 10, 2012

May 11, 2012

May 12, 2012

J & K Bank, Madhucon Proj, Consolidated Co, Relaxo

May 13, 2012

May 14, 2012

Mundra Port, Ashok Leyland, Indraprasth Gas

May 15, 2012

May 16, 2012

May 17, 2012

Bajaj Auto, Mahindra Satyam

May 18, 2012

May 19, 2012

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research