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Soft April home values and expectations of lower interest rates point to a further improvement in housing affordability
Capital city dwelling values were down -0.8% in the month of April following the stability witnessed over the first quarter of 2012, leaving national home values down -0.7% year to date.
Property values across the combined capital cities of Australia showed renewed softness in the latter half of April with dwelling values falling by -0.8 per cent after a stable first quarter. Over the three months ending April 30 the RP Data-Rismark Index has seen values rise by 0.3 per cent. On a year to date basis, dwelling values are now down -0.7 per cent. Values were down across five of the eight capital cities over the month of April, with Hobart (-2.9%), Melbourne (-1.7%) and Brisbane (-1.3%) recording the largest falls. On a 12 month basis capital city dwelling values have fallen by -4.5 per cent with the weak conditions in Melbourne (-7.0%) and Brisbane (-6.4%) dragging the weighted average down. RP Datas research director Tim Lawless said that the housing market gains seen throughout February and March, which delivered a flat first quarter result, have now been mostly offset by the -0.8 per cent fall over the month of April. Our estimate of transaction volumes to February suggest that the two interest rate cuts in November and December last year are yet to provide a sustained stimulus to the market, with transaction volumes remaining reasonably steady at around 31,000 sales each month. Comparing this with the sales rate through mid 2009 when around 45,000 homes were selling each month, the slowdown in buyer activity becomes quite clear, he said. Rismarks Managing Director, Ben Skilbeck, added, The stability seen in the first quarter continued though mid April before the market declined in the last two weeks of the month. This decline coincided with the considerable interest rate uncertainty introduced by the ANZ Bank increasing its interest rates and the anticipation of the first quarter inflation figures. With inflation figures now behind us, if the Reserve Bank does cut interest rates today and then again in June, as is highly anticipated by the financial markets, home buyers will benefit from considerable affordability gains and the housing market is likely to see improved conditions building off the stability evident in the first quarter.
Media enquiries: RP Data: Mitch Koper 0417 771 778
* Rest of state change in values are for houses only to end of March
Weakest performing capital city: Perth, -0.8 per cent over the three
months to 30 April 2012
Highest rental yields: Darwin houses with gross rental yield of 5.7 per
cent and Darwin Units at 5.7 per cent
Lowest rental yields: Melbourne with gross rental yields of 3.6 per cent
for houses and 4.4 per cent for units
-1.5%
-7.0%
-8.5%
-6.4%
Hobart Melbourne
Brisbane
Adelaide
Perth
Sydney
Darwin
Canberra
Combined 8 capitals
Rest of state
Source: RP DataRismark * Rest of state data based on results for houses to end of March
5.0%
0.0% -5.0%
Apr 98
Apr 00
Apr 02
Apr 04
Apr 06
Apr 08
Apr 10
Apr 12
Source: RP DataRismark
www.rpdata.com/indices
Media enquiries contact: RP Data: Mitch Koper, corporate communications manager on 0417 771 778 or mitch.koper@rpdata.com Rismark: Ben Skilbeck, Managing Director, on 0403 138 172 bs@rismark.com.au Introduction to the RP Data-Rismark Daily Hedonic Home Value Index methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com
www.rpdata.com/indices
Capital Growth to 30 April 2012 Table 1A: All Dwellings Month Quarter Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Total Return Year-on-Year
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter
Sydney
Melbourne
Adelaide
Perth
Hobart
Darwin
Canberra
Brisbane
Table 1B: Houses Month Quarter Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Total Return Year-on-Year
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter
Table 1C: Units Month Quarter Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Total Return Year-on-Year
Median price* based on settled sales over quarter
4.3% 5.0%
3.6% 4.4%
4.7% 5.3%
4.3% 4.7%
4.3% 4.7%
4.1% 4.9%
5.3% 5.2%
5.7% 5.7%
4.8% 5.6%
4.7% 5.6%
4.2% 4.9%
The indices in grey shading have been designed for trading environments in partnership with the Australian Securities Exchange (www.asx.com.au). Indices under blue shading (Hobart, Darwin, Canberra, Brisbane and the 8 capital city aggregate) are calculated under the same methodology however are not currently planned to be part of the trading environment. *The median price is the middle price of all settled sales over the three months to the end of the final month. Median prices are provided as an indicator of what price a typical home sold for over the most recent quarter. The median price has no direct relationship with the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index value. The change in the Index value over time reflects the underlying capital growth rates generated by residential property in the relevant region. The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Index growth rates are not ordinarily influenced by capital expenditure on homes, compositional changes in the types of properties being transacted, or variations in the type and quality of new homes manufactured over time. The RP Data-Rismark index values are not, therefore, the same as the median price sold during a given period. See the methodology below for further details. Methodology: The RP Data-Rismark Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property comprising the index into its various formational and locational attributes, differing observed sales values for each property can be separated into those associated with varying attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Also, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the stock of residential property comprising an index can be accurately tracked through time. RP Data owns and maintains Australia's largest property related database in Australia which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. RP Data augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources. For detailed methodological information please visit www.rpdata.com
For more information on the RP Data-Rismark Indices, please go to http://www.rpdata.com Media enquiries contact: RP Data: Mitch Koper, corporate communications manager on 0417 771 778 or mitch.koper@rpdata.com Rismark: Ben Skilbeck, Managing Director, on 0403 138 172 bs@rismark.com.au
RP Data RP Data is the number one provider of property information, analytics and risk management services in Australia and New Zealand, 100% owned by CoreLogic CLX the worlds largest data and analytics provider. Through its expansive database, it attracts a strong and loyal customer base ranging from real estate agents, finance and banking organisations, government and consumers. RP Data combines public, contributory and propriety data to develop predictive decision-making analytics, coupled with its business services that bring insight and transparency to property markets. Backed by 30years of history, RP Data is the holder of the countrys largest residential and commercial property database; this provides an excellent platform to electronically value very property in Australia on a weekly basis - on average 30 million valuations are generated each month. Recognised as a leader and an established player in the mortgage industry, RP Data continues to work with the Australian Finance and lending community to minimise risk and deliver value to consumers. Rismark International Rismark International ("Rismark") is a funds management and quantitative research business. It is dedicated to the development of intellectual property required to facilitate the creation of financial markets over the residential real estate asset class. Rismark also has a long history of advising Australian and overseas governments on the development of innovative economic policies as they relate to housing and financial markets. As a byproduct of its quantitative research activities, Rismark has developed the technology and intellectual property underlying the market-leading RP DataRismark hedonic property price indices and related automated property valuation models (AVMs), amongst other things. For more information visit www.rismark.com.au.
Media enquiries: RP Data: Mitch Koper 0417 771 778 Rismark International: Ben Skilbeck 0403 138 172
www.rpdata.com/indices