Thesis Latt

University of Lneburg Department of Civil Engineering Water Resources Management in Tropical and Sub-tropical Regions
Presented to The Department of Civil Engineering as a partial Fulfilment for the Degree of Master of Science in Water Resources Management (M Sc. W.R.M)
First Supervisor Second Supervisor
: Prof. Dr. Ing. H. Wittenberg : Prof. Dr. Ing. A. Tppe Submitted by Zaw Zaw Latt Matriculation Nr. 158204 February, 2006
University of Lneburg Department of Civil Engineering Water Resources Management in Tropical and Sub-tropical Regions
Presented to The Department of Civil Engineering as a partial Fulfilment for the Degree of Master of Science in Water Resources Management (M Sc. W.R.M)
First Supervisor Second Supervisor
: Prof. Dr. Ing. H. Wittenberg : Prof. Dr. Ing. A. Tppe
Submitted by Zaw Zaw Latt Matriculation Nr. 158204 Lneburg University Germany February, 2006
DECLARATION
Herewith I would like to declare that I have prepared the M.Sc. thesis with the title of Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River in Myanmar myself without using any other sources and references except those which are listed as the references for my thesis. Initiation of the proposed subject is originated from my interest. Different kinds of ideas, thoughts and the correct approach to the study come from my supervisors who kindly contributed to my thesis.
Zaw Zaw Latt Matriculation No.158204 Lneburg University, Campus Suderburg Germany February, 2006
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Firstly I wish to express sincere gratitude to my first supervisor Prof. Dr. -Ing. H Wittenberg and second supervisor Prof. Dr. Ing. A Tppe for their kind acceptance to supervise my thesis. Then my deep appreciation is due to their enthusiastic instructions, fruitful criticisms and indispensable guidance throughout the preparation of my thesis. I offer my grateful thanks to U Kyaw San Win, director general of the Irrigation Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Myanmar for his impressive recommendation to me to study the postgraduate course in Germany. I am also indebted to the associate professor, Daw Cho Cho from the Yangon Technological University and U Tin Oo, deputy director of Hydrology Branch under the Irrigation Department, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation for their logical supports and great encouragement. Then my kind gratitude goes to Daw Htay Htay Win, deputy director of Irrigation Technology center for her encouragement and continuous supports during period of the field study in Myanmar. I am deeply grateful to all professors who have given the excellent lectures during the postgraduate course in Lneburg University, Germany. In writing this thesis, I wish to acknowledge the lasting influence of my teachers and colleagues for their interests, assistance and helpful manners which give me great strength to carry out my thesis. I would like to thank to the following organizations which provided me with information that eventually was included in the paper: the Irrigation Department, the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, and the Water Resource Utilization Department Besides I also want to express my deep appreciation to DAAD for the financial support through which I could have a chance to study and stay in Germany. Last but not least, I would like to express my indebted thanks to my parents and younger sister for their forbearance, love and sharing of my stresses and burdens.
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ABSTRACT
A study of drought conditions is intended to help assess future storage conditions and impact on water resources management. So many hydrologists have systematically carried out on the extraction and diagnosis of the hydrologic drought characteristics so far. As an introduction brief information on water resources in Myanmar and some important facts of the study area are mentioned to have a clear vision on the thesis. Before starting the analysis, hydrologic data tests of collected stream flows are carried out in order to detect the possible errors. Collected daily discharges are found to be consistent, homogeneous and free from outliers. In this paper the analysis is statistically attempted for streamflow drought characteristic of Chindwin river, Myanmar at Monywa gauging station. There are three main portions of analysis to determine the low flow indices. Firstly the probability of each stream flow calculated by the plotting position is used to draw the low flow duration curve through which low flow index of the stream can be theoretically expressed in terms of a percentile value of the study period. Drought discharge is interpreted as EFQ90 which has the exceedance probability of 90% of the period. Comparing the shape of the lower half of the curve, the changes of low flow condition in the stream are traced with the time. For water resources planning it is also important to extract and assess low flow recession which aims at the characterizing the falling limb of the hydrograph, from which the recession indices are derived by linear and no-linear storage functions. Here the construction of the master recession curve based on the analytical expression is proposed and applied to the study area. Then shapes of the curves are expressed in quantitative manner i.e. in terms of recession constants. Non-linear storage provides the best fit for groundwater contribution. Then frequency curves for different time reaches are analyzed to check the change of lower half of the curves which show the tendency of low flow occurrence of the stream. Observed frequency curve for the whole study period is fitted by distribution functions. After testing the goodness of fit, Pearson III is found to be the best fit for observed data and low flow values given by the best suited distribution function and drought discharge, 7Q10 are interpreted. In accordance with the available data, impacts on low flow such as climate impact and land use impact are analyzed and have been proved to have the relation with the low flow indices obtained in the study. According to overall performances, all low flow indices indicate that stream flow has suffered more seasonal and man-made impacts especially during the last 10-year interval, 1995-2004.
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ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
Es ist eine Studie der Bedingungen bei einer Drre geplant, welche bei der Abschtzung von knftigen Wasserspeicherungen und die Auswirkung auf die Wasserwirtschaft helfen soll. Bislang haben sehr viele Hydrologen systematisch die Charakteristiken einer Drre ausgearbeitet und diagnostiziert. Zur Einfhrung wird eine kurze Information ber das Wasservorkommen in Myanmar gegeben und es werden einige wichtigen Fakten ber das Untersuchungsgebiet erlutert, um einen klaren berblick ber die Masterarbeit zu bekommen. Vor Beginn der Analyse werden die hydrologischen Tests des gesammelten Wassers unterzogen, um mgliche Fehler zu entdecken. Die tglich gesammelten Abflsse werden dabei als konsistent, homogen und frei von Ausreiern befunden. In dieser Arbeit wird eine statistische Analyse der Drre-Charakteristik der Wasserstrmung des Chindwin-Flusses in Maynmar bei der Monywa-Messstation versucht. Es gibt drei Hauptbereiche der Analyse, um die Niedrigwasserindizes zu bestimmen. Als erstes wird von jeden Durchfluss die Wahrscheinlichkeit, berechnet durch die Zeichenposition, benutzt, um die Niedrigwasserdauerlinie zu zeichnen. Durch diese lsst sich der Niedrigwasserindex des Stroms ausdrcken, der theoretisch durch den durchschnittlichen Wert der Studiendauer ausgedrckt werde kann. Der Trockenheitsabfluss wird als EFQ90 interpretiert, welche die berschreitung der Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit von 90 % der Zeitperiode hat. Durch das Vergleichen der Formen der unteren Hlften der Kurven wird die NiedrigwassersBedingung des Stromes im Laufe der Zeit verfolgt. Zur Planung der Wasserwirtschaft ist es auch wichtig die Trockenwetterganglinie abzuschtzen und zu extrahieren, welche den Zweck hat, den fallenden Zeiger des Hydrographen zu charakterisieren. Von diesen werden die Recession-Indizes durch lineare und nicht-lieare Speichersfunktionen abgeleitet. An dieser Stelle wird eine MeisterRecession-Kurve basierend auf dem analytischen Ausdruck aufgestellt, konstruiert und auf das Untersuchungsgebiet angewendet. Nicht-lineare Speichersfunktionen liefern den besten Anpassung fr der Grundwasserabfluss. Es werden dann Hufigkeitskurven fr verschiedene Zeiten analysiert um die Vernderungen der unteren Hlften der Kurven zu berprfen. Diese zeigen die Tendenz des Niedrigwasser-Ereignises des Stromes. Die beobachtete Hufigkeitskurve der gesamten Untersuchungsperiode wird durch Verteilungsfunktionen gefittet. Nachdem der Fit auf gute Qualitt getestet wurde, wurde Pearson III als der beste Anpassung fr die beobachteten Daten befunden. Die Niedrigflusswerte, gegeben durch die bestangepassten Verteilungsfunktionen und der Drre-Abflsse, werden als 7Q10 interpretiert.
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In bereinstimmung mit den verfgbaren Daten werden Einflsse von Klima und Landnutzung auf den Niedrigwasser analysiert. Es wird berprft, ob sie eine Beziehung zu den Niedrigfluss-Indizes haben, die mit dieser Arbeit aufgestellt wurden. In der Gesamtbetrachtung zeigt sich, dass alle Niedrigstrom-Indizes darauf hindeuten, dass die Strmung sehr viel mehr jahreszeitliche und menschengemachte Einflsse zeigt, besonders in dem 10-Jahres-Intervall von 1995 bis 2004.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.. ii ABSTRACT ii ZUSAMMENFASSUNG.. iv LIST OF FIGURES... x LIST OF TABLES. xii LIST OF APPENDICES.. xiv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS xv EXECUTIVE SUMMERY xvi
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1 Country Profile.. 1 1.2 Administrative Units. 3 1.3 Socio-economic Features... 3 1.4 Climate... 3 1.4.1 Major seasons 3 1.4.2 General description.. 4 1.5 Classification of Rainfall.. 9 1.6 Current Water Resources Management Activities..9 1.7 Irrigation and drainage.10 1.8 Institutional Environment. 11 1.9 Background Problems in Water Sector.12
Chapter 2. Description of the Study. 13

2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 General Description. 13 2.3 Objectives of the Study16 2.4 Scope of the Study...17 2.5 Available Data...17 2.6 Methodology..18 2.6.1 Materials..18 2.6.2 Method.18
Chapter 3. Literature Review.. 20

3.1 Introduction 20
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3.2 Flow Duration Curve Analysis 20 3.3 Recession Curve Analysis.. 22 3.3.1 Linear Storage 22 3.3.2 Non-linear Storage 23 3.4 Low Flow Frequency Analysis24 3.4.1 Selection of Data Series .. 25 3.4.2 Concepts of Statistic and Probability.. 25 3.4.3 Properties of Statistical Distribution 26 3.4.4 Return Period, Frequency, and Risk.. 26 3.4.5 Plotting Position. 26 3.4.6 Frequency Factor.. 27 3.4.7 Continuous Probability Distributions.. 28 3.4.8 Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution . 28 3.4.8.1Determination of Frequency Factor. 28 3.4.9 Pearson Type III Distribution29 3.4.9.1 Determination of Frequency Factor. 29 3.4.10 Extreme Value Type III Distribution.. 29 3.4.10.1 Determination of Frequency Factor 30 3.4.11 Test for Goodness of Fit 30 3.4.11.1 Method of Least Squares30
Chapter 4. Water Resources in Myanmar .. 32

4.1 Water Resources Availability. 32 4.1.1 General32 4.1.2 Surface Water 32 4.1.2.1 Major River Basins and Water Resources.. 33 4.1.3 Ground Water. 36 4.1.4 Non- Conventional Water Resources 37 4.2 Water Quality 37 4.2.1 Surface Water 37 4.2.2 Ground Water 38 4.3 National Water Sector Context.. 38 4.4 Water Resource Utilization and Challenges 39 4.5 Water-Related Response Indicators. 40 4.6 Trends in Water Management 40
Chapter 5. Outline of the Chindwin River Basin 42

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5.1 Region under the Study.. 42 5.2 Topography.. 45 5.3 General Climate .. 46 5.4 Land Use and land cover 46 5.5 Soil Type and Basin Characteristics. 48 5.6 Water Utilization49
Chapter 6. Data Description and Analysis of Collected Data 50

6.1 Description of Collected Data Series 50 6.2 Determination of Statistical Parameters of the collected Data Set.. 52 6.3 Analysis of Collected Data Series. 52 6.3.1 Test for Independence and Stationary.. 53 6.3.1.1 Result of the Test 53 6.3.2 Test for Homogeneity and Stationary 54 6.3.2.1 Result of the Test. 55 6.3.3 Test for Outliers. 55 6.3.3.1 Result of the Test 56 6.4 Summary Result of Data Test 57 6.5 Main Activities of Low Flow Analysis in the Region 57
Chapter 7. Duration Curve Analysis. 59

7.1 Introduction 59 7.2 Use of the Duration Curve.. 59 7.3 Study Area and Data.. 60 7.4 Percentiles from the Flow Duration Curve60 7.5 Evaluation of Flow Duration Curves.. 63 7.6 Flow Duration Curve for the Entire Study Period 65
Chapter 8. Recession Curve Analysis..66

8.1 Introduction 67 8.2 Study Area and Data67 8.3 Determination of Master Recession Curves 67 8.3.1 Master Recession Curves for every 10-year Period 68 8.3.1.1 Determination of Recession Constant by Simple Averaging .. 69 8.3.1.1.1 Linear Storage.... 69 8.3.1.1.2 Non-linear Storage..... 71 8.3.1.1.3 Verification of Master Recession Curves. 73
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8.3.1.2 Determination of Average K fitted by Matching Strip Method.. 74 8.3.1.2.1 Linear Storage. .. 76 8.3.1.2.2 Non-linear Storage..... 77 8.3.1.2.3 Verification of Master Recession Curves........................ 78 8.3.2 Evaluation of Master Recession Curves.. 80
Chapter 9. Low Flow Frequency Analysis.. 82

9.1 Introduction 82 9.2 Study Area and Data.. 82 9.3 Mean Annual Minimum Flow.. 83 9.4 Plotting Position of Average Low Flows... 83 9.4.1 Frequency Curves of 15-Year Time Reaches.. 84 9.4.2 Frequency Curves of 10-Year Time Reaches.. 86 9.5 Fitting of Low Flow Frequency Curve by Distribution Functions.. 88 9.5.1 Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution............................................. 89 9.5.2 Pearson Type III Distribution89 9.5.3 Extreme Value Type III distribution. 90 9.5.4 Selection of Distribution Function91 9.5.5 Test for Goodness of Fit... 91 9.5.5.1 Method of Least Squares.............................................................92 9.5.6 Result of Expected Low Flows by best fitted Distribution93
Chapter 10. Miscellaneous Approaches........ 95

10.1 Introduction............................................................................................... 95 10.2 Mass Curve Analysis................................................................................ 95 10.3 Impacts on Low Flow. 97 10.3.1 Impact of Climate Change 97 10.3.2Impact of Land-Use Change. 101
Chapter 11. Discussion, Recommendation and Conclusion. 104

11.1 General 104 11.2 Discussion... 104 11.3 Recommendation... 107 11.4 Conclusion.. 109 REFERENCES..
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110
APPENDICES... 112
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Figure 1.2 Figure 1.3 Figure 1.4 Figure 1.5 Figure 2.1 Figure 4.1 Figure 5.1 Figure 5.2 Figure 5.3 Figure 5.4 Figure 5.5 Figure 6.1 Figure 6.2 Figure 6.3 Figure 7.1 Figure 7.2 Figure 7.3 Figure 7.4 Figure 7.5 Figure 7.6 Figure 8.1 Figure 8.2 Figure 8.3 Figure 8.4 Figure 8.5 Figure 8.6 Figure 8.7 Figure 8.8 Figure 8.9 Figure 8.10 Figure 8.11 Figure 8.12 Figure 8.13 Figure 8.14 Figure 8.15 Location Map of Myanmar Map of Myanmar Mean Daily Maximum Temperatures during the hot Season Mean Daily Minimum Temperatures during the cold Season Isohyetal Map of Myanmar Propagation of Drought through the Hydrological Cycle Major Drainage Basins of Myanmar Chindwin River joining to Ayeyarwaddy River Location of the Chindwin Basin Chindwin Basin Map Transportation by Small Boat in Chindwin River Irrigation Development along the Chindwin River by Direct Pumping Location of the gauging Station Annual Low Flows ( 7-day minimum) of the Data Set Derivation of Low Flow characteristics Duration Curve for the period of 1975-1984 Duration Curve for the period of 1985-1994 Duration Curve for the period of 1995-2004 Comparison of flow duration curves for every 10-year period Comparison of tail Portions of Duration Curves Flow Duration curve for entire Period (1975-2004) Recession constants for the period of 1975-1984 Recession constants for the period of 1985-1994 Recession constants for the period of 1995-2003 Master Recession Curves (Linear Storage) using arithmetic mean of K Master Recession Curves (Nonlinear Storage) using arithmetic mean of a Verification MRC by simple arithmetic Mean (1975-1984) Verification MRC by simple arithmetic Mean (1985-1994) Verification MRC by simple arithmetic Mean (1995-2003) Positioning of recession curves (1975-1984) Positioning of recession curves (1985-1994) Positioning of recession curves (1995-2003) Master Recession Curves (Linear) Master Recession Curves (Nonlinear) Verification of MRC by positioning of integrated Recessions (1975-1984) Verification of MRC by positioning of integrated Recessions (1985-1994)
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Figure 8.16 Figure 9.1 Figure 9.2 Figure 9.3 Figure 9.4 Figure 9.5 Figure 10.1 Figure 10.2 Figure 10.3 Figure 10.4 Figure 10.5 Figure 10.6 Figure 10.7 Figure 10.8 Figure 10.9
Verification of MRC by positioning of integrated Recessions (1995-2003) Low flow analysis with empirical return periods Low Flow Frequency Curves for first and second half of the Data Length Low Flow Frequency Curves for each 10-year period of the Data Length Fitting of Low Flow Frequency Curve by three distribution functions Low Flow Frequency Curve of Chindwin River by Pearson III Mass Curve of Cumulative Min Q Mass Curve of Cumulative Max Q Mass Curve of Cumulative Flow Volume Mean Annual Rainfall in Chindwin Basin Mean Annual Temperature of Chindwin Basin (Monywa Station) Annual Rainfall and Annual Average Low Flow (NM7Q) Mean Annual Temperature and Annual Average Low Flow (NM7Q) Mean monthly Temperature of Recession Periods Mean Temperatures of Recession Periods in every 10-year Interval
Figure 10.10 Comparison of Regional Mean Annual Temperatures Figure 10.11 Yearly Irrigation Development in Chindwin Basin Figure 10.12 Cumulative Irrigation Development in Chindwin Basin
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Table 2.1 Table 4.1 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5 Table 6.6 Table 6.7 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 8.4 Table 8.5 Table 8.6 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 9.3 Table 9.4 Table 9.5 Table 9.6 Table 9.7 Table 9.8 Table 9.9 Table 9.10 Table 9.11 Table 9.12 Table 10.1 Climatological Data of states and Divisions in Myanmar (1992-2001 Average) Condition of the available Data Type and Length Annual Surface and Groundwater Potential in Myanmar Area portion of Land Use and Land Cover Major Soil Classification of the Chindwin Basin Basin Characteristics of the Chindwin Catchment 7-day minimum discharge for each year in the collected data series Statistical Parameters of data set of NM7Q Result of Independence Test Result of Homogeneity Test kN Values for Outlier test Result of Outlier Test Summery Result of the Data Test Calculation of a daily FDC for Chindwin River at Monywa Station Streamflow Values Corresponding to EFQ90 Exceedance Frequencies corresponding to actual drought discharge Recession constants for each Year (linear) Average Recession Constants by Linear Storage Factor a of Nonlinear Storage Average factor a of Nonlinear Storage Master Recession Constants by Linear Storage Master Recession Constants by Nonlinear Storage Average minimum flows arranged in decreasing order Annual average low flow and return period in the first 15-year reach Annual average low flow and return period in the second 15-year reach Annual average low flows and return periods in the first 10-year reach Annual average low flows and return periods in the second 10-year reach Annual average low flows and return periods in the third 10-year reach Drought Discharge (7Q10) for each Period Expected Low Flows given by 3-Parameter Lognormal Distribution Expected Low Flows given by Pearson Type III Distribution Expected Low Flows given by Extreme Value Type III Distribution Standard errors of selected distributions for different return periods Expected Low flows given by best fitted distribution (Pearson III) Standard Deviation (Std.Dev.) Values of Collected Meteorological Data
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Table 10.2 Table 11.1
Correlation Coefficient Matrix Summary of Drought Characteristics and Indices for water Resources and Drought Assessment
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LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendix- A
Table.1 Table.2 Table.3 Table.4
Basic Information
Various Agencies and Departments engaged in Water Use Sector Major Government Organizations engaged in Groundwater Extraction Irrigation Area Development of Myanmar Since 1962 Irrigation Development in Chindwin Basin (ha) (as of Sagaing Division)
Appendix- B Maps of the Study Area, Chindwin Watershed

Map.1 Map.2 Map.3 Map.4 Soil Erodibility Factor (K) & Soil Map of Chindwin Watershed Area(1990) Land Cover Map of Chindwin Watershed (1990) Land Cover Map of Chindwin Watershed (2000) Rainfall Isohyetal Map of Chindwin Baisn with Rainfall Stations
Appendix- C
Table.1 Table.2 Table.3 Table.4 Fig.1
Meteorological and Hydrological Data Used in the Study

Mean Daily Discharge of Chindwin River ( Monywa Station ) Mean Annual Temperature of Different Stations (C) Mean Monthly Temperature of Chindwin Basin ( Monywa station ) Annual Rainfall of Chindwin Basin Hydrograph of Chindwin River at Monywa Station
Appendix- D
Table.1 Table.2 Table.3 Table.4 Table.5
Frequency Factors and Useful Tables for Distribution Functions

Frequency Factors for 3-Parameter Lognormal Distribution Frequency Factors for Pearson Type III Distribution Useful Data of Gamma Function Parameter , A and B for Extreme Value Type III Distribution Frequency Factors for Extreme Value Type III Distribution
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
DWC DMH EF EFQ90 EV III FAO FDC GDP ha ID LN(3) MOAI MRC m.s.l NCEA NM1Q NM7Q NM14Q NM30Q POT PDF Std Dev UN UNDP U.S.G.S WMO 7Q10 Development in Water Science Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Exceedance Probability Discharge having Exceedance Probability of 90 % of the Time Extreme Value Type III Distribution Food and Agriculture Organization Flow Duration Curve Gross Domestic Product Hectare Irrigation Department 3-Parametr Logmormal Distribution Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation Master Recession Curve Mean Sea Level National Commission for Environment Affairs Annual Minimum Flow 7-Day Average Annual Minimum Flow 14-Day Average Annual Minimum Flow 30-Day Average Annual Minimum Flow Peaks-over-a-Threshold Probability Distribution Function Standard Deviation United Nations United Nations Development Programme United States Geological Survey World Meteorological Organization Average 7-day Minimum Flow with a Return Period of 10 Year
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EXECUTIVE SUMMERY
This study primarily aims to carry out the low flow analysis of Chindwin river at Monywa gauging station by the determination of low flow indices such as flow duration curve, recession and frequency curve. Besides the study tries to find out the possible correlation between these indices and the seasonal and land use changes in the region as well. This study is divided into eleven chapters which tell not only the main analysis but also some relevant information about the water resources in the region. Chapter 1 describes the country profile giving the information on geographical location, socioeconomic condition, climate, water resources, irrigation development and major institutions engaged in water sector of the country. Before the main analysis start, required quantitative coverage of the principles and methods to be followed in the study are described in literature review, chapter 2. Chapter 3 contains the explanation of the study, necessary to provide the objectives of the study, methodology used including materials and methods and available data type and length as well. Then to have an overview of the water resources availability, chapter 4 is included at this early stage to expose the readers to the information on water resources potential in Myanmar. And explanation about the study area such as location, topography, general climate, chatchment characteristics, land cover and land use and water utilization conditions can be seen in chapter 5. These two chapters, 4 and 5, dwell on both water related fundamentals and situation of the area. After giving the necessary information of the region, collected hydrological data namely mean daily discharges are tested and analysed in chapter 6 to check whether they are consistent and homogeneous ones or not and to detect the outliers of the sample. In coming chapters, determination of three main low flow indices is mentioned. Chapter 7 deals with preparation of low flow duration curves through which drought discharges of Chindwin river in terms of percentile values of the period are investigated. One important index, master recession curves for different 10-year intervals are created and master recession curve constants are determined in chapter 8 using simple averaging and matching strip method. Then master recession curves are fitted by both linear and nonlinear storage equations. After that, chapter 9 contains the preparation of low flow frequency curves for different time reaches using the plotting position method. Then observed frequency curve is fitted by distribution functions so that expected low flow can be predicted using best fit distribution. Chapter 10 constitutes the miscellaneous approaches using the available information of the region. Mass curves are drawn to see the consistency of the data. And impacts on low
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flows are analysed based on annual rainfall, mean annual temperature and irrigation development data of the area in order to find the correlation between these impacts and low flow indices obtained in previous chapters. Finally discussion for the overall result, recommendation for the study and conclusion on work done and further study are mentioned in chapter 11.
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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River
Chapter 1. Introduction
1.1 Country Profile
The Union of Myanmar is geographically situated in Southeast Asia between latitudes 09 32' N and 28 31' N and longitudes 92 10' E and 101 11' E. The total land area is 261, 228 square miles (676,577 sq. km). It stretches for 582 miles (936 km) from east to west and 1275 miles (2051 km) from north to south. The length of continuous frontier is 3900 miles (6286 km), sharing 2227 km with China, 2099 km with Thailand, 1453 km with India, 272 km with Bangladesh and 235 km with Laos respectively. The coast line extends from the mouth of Nat River in the West to Kawthaung in the South and measures about 2230 km.
Location
Latitude: Longitude: Land frontier:
With Thailand With Laos With China With Bangladesh With India 2099km. 235 km 2227 km 272 km 1453 km
932 - 2831 9210 - 10111
Sea frontier:
Rakhine coastline 713 km Delta coastline 438 km Tanintharyi coastline 1078 km
Fig 1.1 Location of Myanmar ( Source: MOAI )
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Fig 1.2 Map of Myanmar (source : http://www.pbase.com/rovebeetle/image/41479890) The country is topographically divided into four regions. The eastern Shan Plateau is a highland region averaging 900 meters in height and merging with the Dawna range and the Tnintharyi Yoma towards the Isthmus of Kra. The central belt spans the valleys of the Ayeyarwaddy, Chindwin and Sittoung rivers with a mountainous region in the north and a vast, low-lying delta in the south that covers an area of 25900 sq. km. It produces almost all the nations rice. The western mountain belt, also known as Rakhine mountains, is a series of ridges that originate in the northern mountain area and extend southward to the south-western corner. The Rakhine coastal strip is a narrow, predominantly alluvial, belt lying between the Rakhine mountains and the Bay of Bengal. In some places the strips disappears as the mountain spurs reach the sea. Offshore, there are hundreds of islands, many of which are cultivated. In 2004, the total population was calculated at 49.9 millions inhabitants. With a population density of 68 inhabitants/km, Myanmar is well below the level of other countries in south and Southeast Asia. The population growth rate is estimated at 1.3 percent. About
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63 percent of the total labor force is engaged in agriculture, and 70 percent in the primary sector, including livestock, fisheries and forestry.
1.2
Administrative Units
Myanmar is divided administratively into States and Divisions which are now in 17 numbers in total and state/divisions are sub-divided into 64 districts which are further divided into 324 townships. Townships are also further subdivided into 13,759 village-tracts. The village-tract is basic administrative unit which is made up of one or more villages depending upon the size of population in each village. Statistics are collected usually on village tract basis. Each village tract is under the charge of a committee which is directly supervised by Township Peace and Development Council. The administrative bodies are an integral part of the agricultural statistics system and it has to give necessary assistance to the collection, compilation and in maintaining records at the village tract level.
1.3
Socio-economic Features
Union of Myanmar is basically an agricultural country with about 75 percent of the population residing in rural areas. The agriculture sector provides about 72 percent of the total labour force and contributes 36 percent of GDP and 35 percent of total foreign export earnings (FAO).
1.4 1.4.1
Climate Major Seasons
Most of Myanmar enjoys a tropical climate. Temperatures in Mandalay, in central Myanmar is average 20 C (68 F) in January and 29 C (85 F) in July. Temperature in Yangon, on the delta, is average 25 C (77 F) in January and 27 C (80 F) in July. Myanmar has three seasons namely rainy season or monsoon, cool season or winter and hot season or summer. The rainy season lasts from late May to October. Rainfall varies greatly from region to region. For example, the Mandalay area receives only about 760 mm (30 inches) of rain a year. The Taninthayi Coast, however, is drenched with over 5100 mm (200 inches). The heavy rainfall is brought by seasonal winds called monsoons, which sweep North-Eastward from the Indian Ocean. The cool season runs from late October to mid-February. Temperatures are lowest at this time, though the climate remains tropical throughout most of Myanmar.
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The hot season lasts from late February to about mid-May. During this season, temperatures often top 38 C (100 F) in many parts of Myanmar.
1.4.2
General Description
Because of its diversity of relief, there are many striking contrasts in the meteorology conditions of different parts of Myanmar. In the central part of the country an area lies with an average annual rainfall of 1000 mm while certain parts of the coastal regions have an annual average rainfall of 5000 mm. The mean maximum temperature of over 40C (100F) is observed in central Myanmar areas during the months of March and April and a mean minimum temperature of 5C (40F) to 10C (50F) is found in the northern part of Myanmar during January and February. Except for the northern highlands and, to a lesser degree, parts of the Shan plateau, temperatures are high all year, and the cold season is cool only by comparison with the hot season. The mean annual temperature of the country as a whole is about 27C (80F), but there is a considerable variation between different parts of the country. In the lowlands during the wet season the humidity is constantly high, and the temperature may reach 38C (100F) or more. Here also there is comparatively little noticeable change from day to day, even though the cold season does bring some relief. In the Shan Plateau temperatures are significantly lower than those in the lowlands, making it the nations most pleasant area for habitation. Many peaks in higher elevations of the northern mountains are snowcapped. The most striking feature of the meteorology of Myanmar is the alteration of seasons known as the monsoon. Strictly speaking monsoons are seasonal winds whose directions reverse twice during the year. Lying within the tropics and the great Asiatic continent to the north and the wide expanse of the Indian ocean to the south, Myanmar furnishes one of the best examples of a monsoon country. During the winter months of the year from December to February the general flow is from the north or north-west in the northern parts and from the north-east in the rest of the country. In this season the air over the country is mainly of continental origin and hence of low humidity and low temperature and the season is known as the north-east or winter monsoon season. In the summer, months of May to October the general flow of wind is from the opposite direction, from sea to land, with a tropical maritime origin, and the season is one of much humidity, cloudiness and rain. The direction of winds in the Bay of Bengal and the Adman sea is south-westerly and season is named the south-west or summer monsoon season.
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Between these two principal seasons are the transition seasons of the hot and dry weather months; March, April and May and the retreating monsoon months of October and November. It is noteworthy that most storms which make landfall on Myanmar coasts occur in these transition seasons.
Table 1.1 Climatological Data of states and Divisions in Myanmar (1992-2001 Average) State/Division Annual Rainfall (mm) Kachin Kayah Kayin Chin Sagaing Tanintharyi Bago Magway Mandalay Mon Rakhine Yangon Shan Ayarwaddy Temperature (C) Mean Max.Temp 29.5 29.2 32.9 22.2 31.4 31.9 33.2 33.2 31.5 32.1 31.2 32.9 27.8 32 Mean Min.Temp 18.25 17 22.8 12.5 19.8 22.4 21.5 19.3 19.4 20.7 21.3 21.7 15.3 22.7 Mean Relative Humidity (%) 76.7 69.5 77.5 72.4 74.6 79.8 74.2 69.8 70.2 77.9 79.1 76.8 71.2 70.2
2146 1020
3990 1675 1705 4830 2245 1063 1084 5399 5263 2903 1354 2988
(Source : DMH)
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Fig 1.3 Mean Daily Maximum Temperatures during the hot season
(Source : United Nations Publication, 1996)
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Fig 1.4 Mean Daily Minimum Temperatures during the cold season
(Source : United Nations Publication, 1996)
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Fig 1.5 Isohyetal Map of Myanmar
(Source: MOAI)
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1.5
Classification of Rainfall
The precipitation of the various parts of the country is classified into three groups. R3. There is sufficient rainfall for crop production during the rainy season and the rainfall pattern is normally uni-modal. There is no dry spell during the rainy season. This pattern occurs in Rakhine, Mon, northern part of Kachin State, Ayeyarwady and Tanintharyi Division, which receive over 2500 mm of rainfall. R4. There is sufficient rainfall for crop production during the rainy season and three months of period of continuous summer season (or) at least three months of no rain during a year. During the rainy season, a dry spell may occur, or excessive rainfall and flood. The rainfall pattern is normally uni-modal. This pattern occurs in Chin, Kachin, Kayah, Shan state and Bago-Yoma hill which receive from 1000 to 2500 mm. R5. The amount of rainfall varies year by year and the rainfall pattern is in most years bi-modal. This pattern occurs in the dry zone including Mandalay, Magwe and southern part of Sagaing Division which receives under the 1000 mm of rainfall.
1.6
Current Water Resources Management Activities
Myanmar is endowed with abundant water resources, with available yearly surface and ground water of about 1 082 km3 and 495 km3 respectively. The bulk of the water resources is used for agriculture (about 91 percent of total consumption). Numerous irrigation facilities have been implemented during the present decade for irrigation and water supply to develop rural and urban areas. Several government agencies and departments are engaged independently in using both surface and ground water, but the extent and type of water use differ. Long taken for granted, water must be seen as a finite resource that has to be used rationally. As population and economic activities grow, water demand increases rapidly. Up to now, there have been no water-sharing policies and riparian rights and environmental impact assessment have not been defined in the country. The rising water requirements of the country's rapidly expanding urban and industrial centers and the contamination by pollutants from industrial, municipal and agricultural effluents (the latter associated with the uncontrolled use of pesticides and fertilizers) have lead to the decreasing availability of freshwater. Moreover, salinity intrusion has been reported in the inland areas along the tidal reaches of the Ayeyarwaddy river system, and
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monitoring of the Ayeyarwaddy in the dry zone shows excessive pollution, particularly in summer. All of this calls for the integrated management and planning of water resources and higher investment in water conservation and resources protection, as well as the promotion of healthy behavior among users. Protection and restoration of the watersheds are planned and carried by the Ministry of Forestry. The rapid construction of irrigation facilities such as dams, reservoirs, weirs and river pumping stations may lead to contamination and depletion of water resources rapidly. As the water supply agencies established various facilities according to their own policies and practices and as they were as a result uncoordinated, in 1990 the government established the National Commission for Environmental Affairs, comprising all concerned departments' representatives, to offer systematic guidance in environmental management. Water conservation was seen as a key area to be addressed and laws and regulations to prevent water-related environmental degradation were seen as being essential. With the increase of population and a greater need for water for economic activities, there is increasing pressure on groundwater extraction. Control and management of groundwater is therefore necessary. Unrestricted groundwater extraction could result in land subsidence and saltwater intrusion. Besides, in order to ensure the recharge of groundwater aquifers, surface water has to be managed along with groundwater in an integrated way. Traditional water management systems can no longer meet the requirements of the market economy. Thus, the water management system must be reformed soon, and the function of the management agency strengthened. An important problem for water resource planning is insufficient information and data on watershed resources.
1.7
Irrigation and Drainage
Irrigation water storage projects have been identified and constructed on smaller rivers and streams. Dry zone areas received more benefit by these projects during the monsoon season while stored water for dry season cropping is the primary advantage. Although the cost of these projects are relatively high, they can produce benefits in specific areas creating opportunities for crop diversification towards cash crops and for helping regional development objectives such as water supply, greening of arid areas by reforestation, soil conservation etc. Diversion schemes are given less priority given that the major dry zone potentials have been exploited. Such projects are being constructed in hilly areas while the modernization and rehabilitation of existing works has also been carried out. Modernization prevents further deterioration and loss of command in the existing irrigated areas.
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Land reclamation, flood protection and drainage projects present in Ayeyarwaddy Delta to enhance paddy production. In the upper and middle area of delta that were previously subject to flooding and also areas of lower delta that previously suffered from tidal inflows, water logging and salt intrusion could be reclaimed. In dry zone of Myanmar, safe drinking water is scarce and deep tube wells are seen to be expensive both in drilling and operation and maintenance. Therefore rural water supply will be provided from existing dams and also from the ones which are in plan to be constructed in future. The flow will be conveyed to the villages by gravity. Because of the rainfall and hydrological pattern of the country, the need for irrigation is highest in the central dry zone, while the delta is more concerned with drainage and flood protection problems. Dam construction and irrigation network implementation were accelerated in the 1960s, 1970s and after 1990 irrigation development significantly increased (Figure 1.6). Now irrigation expansion has been significant (up 200 percent) since 1990 to the year 2004.
2.5
Irrigated Area ( Million Ha)
1.5
0.5
0
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Fig 1.6 Irrigation Developments in Myanmar
1.8
Institutional Environment
The major institutions involved in water resources management are as follows: The Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MOAI) is the main ministry involved in water resources through its various departments : (i)The Water Resources Utilization Department, which is responsible for groundwater use (for both irrigation and rural water supply), irrigation by pumping in rivers, and the development of sprinkler and micro-irrigation;
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(ii) The Irrigation Department (ID), which is responsible for O&M of irrigation works, construction of new projects, and investigation, design and implementation of proposed projects, as long as surface water is used; (iii) The Settlement and Land Records Department, which is responsible for collecting agricultural statistics and land administration; (iv) The Agricultural Planning Department, which is in charge of planning, monitoring and evaluation of all agricultural projects, including irrigation and drainage projects. The Meteorology and Hydrology Department (DMH) of the Ministry of Transport is in charge of collecting hydrological and meteorological data, while the Irrigation Department has also its own hydrological network. Hydropower generation is supervised by the Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise, within the Ministry of Energy. Detailed list of water related agencies in Myanmar is shown in Appendix-A
1.9
Background Problems in Water Sector
Although Myanmar is rich in water resources, less than 10% of the fresh water resources is used for development of country at present mainly for agriculture sector, the situation calls for a proper water resource management and strong policy for sustainable development of the countrys economy and conservation of nature and environment for future generation. At present a number of government agencies engaged in water sector have different water pricing policies and less coordination. There is no apex body for overall management of water resources of the country in cooperation with both the public and private sectors. Therefore there is an urgent need to carry out water conservation with appropriate management and planning practice in view of the rapid changes in the socio-economic development of the country and also for protection of water related environment degradation. Present organizational arrangements at both national and provincial levels generally support the achievement of the nations policies but the current institutional problems in the water sector is mainly relates to lack of coordination and collaboration between agencies within the sector and with those of other sectors and loose line of communication and coordination between the national agencies and authorities. Others weakness in water sector are limited manpower, scarcity of financial resources, lack of appropriate monitoring facilities, proper and systematic upkeep of records, regular monitoring and surveillance of water quality and finally lack of technical know-how on water management techniques. .
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Chapter 2. Description of the Study

2.1 Introduction
Water- the most fundamental and indispensable resource of the world. History has shown how vulnerable regions all over the world are to severe and prolonged droughts, which have caused major social, economic and environmental problems. Increasing demand for water, following a growing global population and extensive use of water for irrigation and industry, has raised the awareness of our vulnerability to drought. Any deficit or limitation in water supply will be most critical in drought periods, and competing water needs may be the cause of conflicts. Current global change scenarios suggest that the magnitude, frequency and impacts of extreme drought events could increase due to mankind, through climate and large-scale changes in vegetation. A prerequisite for sound water management is a thorough understanding of drought, considered by many to be the least understood of all major natural hazards (Wilhite, 2000a). Low flow investigations for the Chindwin river has traditionally used hydrologically based flow indices and exceedance percentiles to recommend low flow and instream conditions for the stream. Flow indices have been used extensively and are considered appropriate at the planning level of water resource development. The low flow estimate is arguably the most important factor determining the adequacy of water quality protection provided by a discharge permit, because it is the quantitative link between the stream standards that protect designated uses and the permit limits that regulate effluent quality. If the low flow estimate is high relative to conditions that occur in the future, it increases the risk that aquatic life, or another designated use of the water, may not receive adequate protection. If the estimate is too low, it increases the probability that more money will be invested in treatment than is necessary to protect designated uses.
2.2
General Description
The primary cause of a drought is the lack of precipitation over a large area and for an extensive period of the time, called a meteorological drought. This water deficit propagates through the hydrological cycle and gives rise to different types of droughts. Combined with high evaporation rates a soil water deficiency might cause a soil moisture drought to develop. The term agricultural drought is used when soil moisture is insufficient to support crops. Subsequently groundwater recharge and stream will be reduced and a hydrological drought may develop. A reduced recharge leads to lower groundwater heads and storage. The relationship between the types of droughts is illustrated in Fig 2.1.
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Natural Climate Variability Meteorological Situation Persisting anticyclonic pressure systems
Low / no precipitation
High temperature, wind speed, radiation, low humidity etc.
Meteorological Drought
Precipitation deficiency
Increased evaporation and transpiration
Soil Moisture Drought
Plant water stress, Soil water deficiency reduced biomass and yield
Hydrological Drought
Streamflow Deficiency
Depletion of groundwater reservoir
Fig 2.1 Propagation of Drought through the Hydrological Cycle (Modified from Stahl, 2001) (Source: DWS 48)
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The general definition of drought as a sustained and regional extensive occurrence of below average natural water availability implies that both the time and spatial aspect of the drought are considered. The definition is relative in the sense that the concept of a drought refers to a certain threshold that distinguishes a drought event from a non-drought situation, and the event has thus a beginning and an end. Key aspects of a drought include its duration, severity, time of occurrence and spatial event. Streamflow drought characteristics are obtained from the time series of discharge, observed or simulated, and encompass both low flow and deficit characteristics. A time series of low flow characteristic can, for instance, be the lowest observed streamflow each year, i.e. the annual minimum series. Low flow characteristics are particularly suitable for characterizing the hydrological regime, i.e. the seasonal variation in streamflow, but consider only one feature of the event, the drought severity. A method that simultaneously characterizes streamflow drought in terms of severity and duration is the threshold level method, which defines droughts as a period during which the flow is below a certain threshold level. Time series of observed groundwater level and derived time series of groundwater discharge and recharge are used for characterizing groundwater drought. Based on time series of hydrological drought characteristics, corresponding indices (single values) can be derived, for example the mean annual minimum flow or the mean annual deficit duration. As droughts are regional in nature and critical drought condition occur when there is an extreme shortage of water for long durations over large areas, a drought study often includes the spatial extent of the drought as a measure of the severity of the drought. Whereas high flows lead to floods, sustained low flows can lead to drought. Drought has had severe and sometimes catastrophic effects on vital activities of people. Drought is a chronic problem which has caused distress, economic loses and degradation of the environment. There is no single region where drought has not affected peoples activities in one way or another, at one time or another. Depending on the flood severity, effects are often site specific; whereas droughts are generalized to an entire area or region. In practice, a drought refers to a period of unusually low water supplies, regardless of water demand. The regions most subject to droughts are those with the greatest variability in annual rainfall. Studies have shown that regions where the variance coefficient of annual rainfall exceeds 0.35 are more likely to have frequent droughts. Low annual rainfall and high annual rainfall variability are typical of arid and semiarid regions. Therefore these regions are more likely to be prone to droughts. The severe of droughts can be established by measuring (1) the deficiency in rainfall and runoff, (2) the decline of soil moisture, and (3) the decrease in groundwater levels.
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For a long time, the statistical analysis of low water discharge has been neglected in favor of flood flow. One reason for this negligence might be the fact that flood events are spectacular and dangerous. Only the increasing use of river water for agriculture, municipal and industrial purposes has shown that possible damages of low water period is comparable with the damage caused by flood events. Therefore many efforts have been made in the last few years to describe low water discharges by deterministic and statistical procedures. Now it is very easy to get various Satellite data. Then using those data, many hydrologists and meteorologists have so far presented effective and interesting research results for the global water balance and climate change and so on. On the other hand a statistical analysis on regional low flow has lively been carried out using the observation data from the earth. The adequacy of stream flow to meet requirements for disposal of liquid waste, and for municipal or industrial supplies, supplemental irrigation, and maintenance of suitable conditions for aquatic life is commonly evaluated in terms of low flow characteristic (Riggs, 1980). Certain of these low flow characteristic are useful as variables in regional draftstorage studies, as the basis for forecasting seasonal low flows, and indicators of the amount of ground water flow to the stream. Since the water resources situation will be increasingly tight in future, water resources planners need the effective hydrologic information in the source area of a river through the statistical and/or runoff analysis. And then it is particularly required to provide an effective water resources management in gauged or ungauged. According to Riggs, low flow characteristics at a gauging station may be described by frequency curves of annual or seasonal minimum flows, by duration curves, and by baseflow recession curves.
2.3
Objectives of the Study
The main objective of the study is to give a brief explanation of water resources in Myanmar and to extract and discuss the low flow characteristic of Chindwin river basin at the selected site through low flow indices obtained from the analysis and then to find the possible relations between these indices and climate and land use impacts on low flows in the study area. To attain this main goal, it is necessary to get following sub-objectives. They are; (1) To investigate the low flow condition using flow duration curve. (2) To determine the master recession curves
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(3) To prepare low flow frequency curves and to predict the expected low flows using frequency analysis (4) To find the link between above low flow indices and impacts of climate and land use.
2.4
Scope of the Study
A study of the drought conditions in the river reaches is intended to help assess future storage conditions and impact on water resources management. So many hydrologists and irrigation engineers have systematically carried out on the extraction and diagnosis of the hydrologic drought characteristics so far. The study describes hydrological drought conditions defined by the available water resources in the Chindwin catchment. The main scope is to provide a comprehensive understanding of processes and estimation methods for streamflow drought. It is accompanied by computational details, general discussions and possible limitation for application of a particular methodology. The regional aspect of low flow characteristics are studied using daily streamflow series in the region. In this paper, before the main analysis hydrologic data tests were carried out to see the reliability of the collected data and then three kinds of analysis were performed. In order to encourage a wise use low flow indices are determined by the use of duration curves and frequency curves and then drought discharges are expressed in terms of EFQ90 and 7Q10. The lower ends of the frequency and duration curves are useful expressions of the low flow characteristics of the stream. Secondly analysis for a master recession curve constants are determined because it became apparent that the recession constant of a master depletion curve may be defined as the total index of low flow characteristics. The study also concludes with impacts of climate and large changes of vegetation in the region which may cause high potential of low flow occurrence.
2.5
Available Data
Relevant data of the study are collected from Monywa gauging station which is situated at the most downstream portion of the basin area.
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Table 2.1 Condition of the available Data Type and Length Collected Data Type and Period Elevation Station Latitude Longitude from m.s.l (m) Mean Annual Rainfall (mm) 1975-2005 Mean monthly & Annual Temperature (C) 1975-2005
Daily Discharge (m /s)

3
Monywa
22 06 N
95 08 E
73.32
1975-2004
Here mean annual rainfall is obtained from the average value of six gauging stations in the catchment area. And the daily discharge and mean monthly temperature are collected from the specific gauging station, namely Monywa station.
2.6
Methodology
To attain the main objective of this paper, the study is carried out based on the following materials and methods.
2.6.1
Materials
In this study daily mean discharges are used to determine the low flow characteristic of Chindwin river. Mean annual rainfall and mean monthly temperature of the basin are used to find out the causes and the relevance of the result as decisive factors which are normally considered in drought study of the area.
2.6.2
Methods
To perform a research work available data is much of importance. So, required hydrological and meteorological data are collected. Frequent visit to the offices concerned was conducted to have the information of the study area. And discussion with staff personal plays a vital role for this paper. Preparation of maps showing selected site and observation station are also supporting factors for this study. Testing of collected data set was required to get consistent and homogenous ones for the analysis.
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Then flow duration curves are drawn to give an identification of the severity of low flow for different probabilities in terms of percent of the time and drought discharges, EFQ90s are determined. Then master depletion curves are constructed both by linear and non-linear storage to identify the low flow index. Low flow frequency curves are drawn using plotting position to check of the changes of low flow conditions for different time intervals and to find the drought discharge 7Q10 (average annual minimum flow with a return period of 10 year). Method of low flow frequency analysis is also applied to fit the observed frequency curve based on collected time series hydrologic data using frequency factor method in the assessment of the probability of occurrence of droughts of different return periods. Testing of goodness of fit for selected probability distribution function has been done using least square (standard errors) method. Finally the results obtained are judged and discussed comparing with the annual rainfall, temperature and irrigation development data of the region.
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Chapter 3. Literature Review

3.1 Introduction
The long-duration periods of low discharges are usually called droughts. In the hydrological literature no uniform definition of drought periods has yet been established. This results from the fact that, in general, the term in question may be defined depending upon the aim of the investigation. Usually, a drought is assumed to be the period in which the natural river discharges are lower than those needed for water supply or other water management activity. Some analysis of low flow is necessary before a stream can be used as a reliable source of water supply. If the minimum flow of record far exceeds the proposed demand, further analysis may not be necessary, but if once or twice during the period of record the flow was less than the proposed demand, further analysis should be made to see if the anticipated deficiencies in flow are too serious to be tolerated. Low flow frequency analysis and flow duration curves are the two simplest methods used in making such analysis. If the deficiency is likely to be too great too frequently, storage must be provided to hold high flow for release during drought periods. Although detailed analysis of storage requirements is necessary for design, reconnaissance planning can often be facilitated by draft-storage curve based on low flow frequency analysis. In addition to analysis of low flows for generalization water supply on a duration or frequency basis, there are also situations in which the flow of a particular stream may be extrapolated on a time scale. This extrapolation amounts to extension of the hydrograph during periods of little or no rain. In a way, this operation corresponds to forecasting, but it is more of a projection, or sort of projections, based on certain outlooks or specified assumptions such as no rain, or some other amount of rain for the ensuing month or other period.
3.2
Flow Duration Curve Analysis
The flow duration curve is believed to have been first used by the American engineers Clemens Herschel and John R. Fremann from early 1880 to 1890. It is most frequently used for determining water-supply potentials in planning and design of the water resources projects, particularly the hydropower plants. When the values of a hydrologic event are arranged in order of their descending magnitude, the percent of time for each magnitude to be equaled or exceeded can be computed. A plotting of the magnitudes as or ordinates against the corresponding percents
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of time as abscissas results in a so-called duration curve. If the magnitude to be plotted is the discharge of a stream, the duration curve is known as a flow duration curve. In a statistical sense, the duration curve is a cumulative time series, displaying the relative duration of various magnitudes. The slope of the duration curve depends greatly on the observation period used in the analysis. The mean daily data will yield a much steeper curve than annual data as the latter tend to group and smooth of the variations in the shorter-interval daily data. Typical flow duration curve may be considered to represent the hydrograph of the average year with its flow arranged in order of magnitude. According to the different requirements in the analysis, duration curve may be modified and developed. It should be noted that the chronological sequence of events is completely masked in a duration curve. The shape of a flow duration curve may change with the length of record. This property can be used to extend the flow information on a given stream for which short-term records are available and for which simultaneous and long-term records are available on at least on adjacent stream which is believed to be under similar hydrologic conditions. By comparing the flow duration curves constructed of the short-term record of the given stream and of the corresponding short-period record on the adjacent stream, the flow duration curve for the long-period record of the adjacent stream can be proportionally adjusted to produce an approximate flow duration curve for the given stream for the corresponding long-period record. (Handbook of applied hydrology, Chow) Flow duration curves of daily discharge show the percent of time that the flow of a stream is greater than given amounts regardless of continuity in time. The computation process is simply a tallying of data in convenient class intervals. The duration curve of stream flow will generally plot nearly as a straight line if logarithmic probability paper. This type of paper gives equal plotting accuracy at all discharges so that differences in low flow characteristics can be discerned. Such differences often have hydrological significance. Flow duration curves are sometimes based on weekly or monthly discharge to simplify the tallying process in which case the resulting curve represents the percentage of weeks or months rather than the percentage of time. Such curves are less useful than the daily duration curve. Duration curves of yearly discharge, however, have considerable value in appraising the yearly variation in flow. (WMO, Guide to hydrological practices)
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3.3
Recession Curve Analysis
The statistical and/or hydrological methods have been applied to deal successfully with the low flow recession characteristics of the stream flow. As for hydrological methods, two ways have been carried out by many hydrologists so far. One method examines low flow runoff through the long time rainfall runoff analysis using the runoff model, and another obtains the hydrological information from the analysis for a low flow recession curve. The former needs the stream flow, precipitation and evapotranspiration data for a long time which were observed with a high accuracy. The latter, the master depletion curve method is used to provide a model of flow from groundwater storage. Based on this, it can be used to identify a point on the recession where direct runoff ends and base flow begins; however, it also provides a model of the recession limb.
3.3.1
Linear Storage
The procedure requires measured storm hydrographs for a good number of storm events covering a wide range of volumes and for seasons of the year. The procedure is as follows: 1. Using a log q versus time-axis system, plot the recession curves for each storm event on separate pieces of tracing paper. 2. On a master sheet having a log q versus time-axis system (semi log paper), plot the recession for the storm event having the smallest values of log q. 3. Using the recession curve with the next smallest range of log q values, position the tracing paper such that the curve appears to extend along a line coincident with the recession of the first event plotted. 4. Continue this process using successively larger log q recession until all storm events are plotted. 5. construct a master depletion curve that extends through the recession of the observed storm events and fit a mathematical model to the master depletion curve; the following linear functional form often provides a reasonable fit to the data: q t = q0 e
Kt
( Eq 3.1)
In which qt is the discharge at time t, q0 is the discharge at time t = 0, and K is a fitting coefficient. The value of K can be determined using any two points of the master depletion
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curve. Letting one point be q0 , then making a natural-logarithm transformation of Equation (3.1 ) and solving for K yields
K=
ln q0 ln q t t
( Eq 3.2)
Where t is the time at which discharge qt is recorded. If sufficient scatter is evident in the recession line, then least squares can be used to estimate K. If the value of q0 is set, then the least squares estimator of K is
K=
t (ln q
i=1 i n i=1
ln q t )
( Eq 3.3)
2 i
In which n is the number of pairs of (qi,ti) points on the recession.
3.3.2
Non-Linear Storage
Linear relation is hardly expected in the nature and can only be the approximate solution. Non linear storage equation is given by S=aQ
3 b 3 3-3b b
( Eq 3.4) s . If the volumes are
For S in m and Q in m /s, the factor a has the dimension m in mm, Q in mm/d and a will be in mm
1-b b
expressed in depth units (i.e. volume per unit area) and the time step is a day (d), then s is d .The exponent b is dimensionless. The commonly used single linear reservoir is a special case with b = 1. However, analyses of observed flow recession of numerous rivers in different hydrological regimes yielded values b <1 with a typical value of b 0.5 ( Wittenberg, 1994, 1999; Wittenberg and Sivapalan, 1999; Aksoy and Wittenberg, 2001). This finding is confirmed by theoretical derivation ( Werner and Sundquist, 1951; Schoeller, 1962) for unconfined aquifers. The recession of the nonlinear reservoir for b 1 is described by equation (3.5) for an initial value Qo. Qt = Qo
[1 + (1 b)Qo
ab
1b
]1 /(b1)
( Eq 3.5)
The coefficient a can be determined from the outflow data Q of the recessions and is given by a=
(Q + Q )t 2 (Q Q )
o t b b 0 t
( Eq 3.6)
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The coefficient a and b can be determined for observed recession by hydrographs by an iterative least-squares method ( Wittenberg, 1994, 1999).
3.4
Low Flow Frequency Analysis
The primary objective of frequency analysis is to relate the magnitude of extreme events to their frequency of occurrence through the use of probability distribution ( Chow et al., 1988 ). Data observed over an extended period of time in a river system are analyzed in frequency analysis. The flow data are considered to be stochastic and may even be assumed that the flows have not been affected by natural or manmade changes in the hydrological regime in the system. Partially treated wastewater is commonly discharged into streams and rivers where it mixes with the existing flow. Natural processes improve the overall quality of the total flow. During the periods of low flow the volume of wastewater may be too large to be safely discharged without reducing the quality of water below established water-quality standards. When evaluating sites for the suitability of a manufacturing or commercial business, it is important to assess the probability that the stream will almost always have sufficient flow to meet the need for discharging wastewater. Such probabilities are estimated using a low flow frequency analysis at the site. While instantaneous maximum discharges are used for flood frequency analyses, low flow frequency analyses usually specify a flow duration (for example, 7-day). The instantaneous discharge is used with high flows because damage often occurs even if the site inundated only for a very short period of the time. This may not be true for low flow because high pollution concentrations over very short periods of time may not be damaging to the aquatic life of the stream. Thus, the duration such as seven days or one month, is specified in establishing the policy. One difference between low flow and flood frequency analysis is that the data for low flow analysis consists of annual events that have the lowest average flow of the required duration D during each water record. Thus the records of flow for each water year are evaluated to find the period of D days during which the average flow was the lowest; these annual values are used as the sample data. The record of n years is then evaluated using frequency analysis. Once the data record has been collected, the procedure for making a low flow frequency analysis is quite similar to that used for flood frequency analysis. The major differences are listed here:
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1. Instead of using the exceedance probability scale, the non-exceedance scale (that is, the scale at the bottom of the probability paper) is used to obtain probabilities. The non-exceedance scale is important because the T-year event is the value that will not be exceeded. 2. The data are ranked from low to high, with the smallest sample magnitude associated with a Weibull probability of 1/(n+1) and the largest magnitude associated with a probability of n/(n+1); any other plotting position formula in place of the Weibull. However the plotting position probabilities are nonexceedance probabilities.
3.4.1
Selection of Data Series
The complete record of stream flows at a given station is called the complete duration series. To perform a flood frequency analysis, it is necessary to elect a flood series, i.e., a sample of flood events extracted from the complete duration series. There are two types of flood series: (1) the partial duration series and (2) the extreme value series. The partial duration (or peaks-over-a threshold (POT) series consists of floods whose magnitude is greater than a certain base value. When the base value is such that the number of events in the series is equal to the number of years of record, the series is called an annual exceedance series. In the extreme value series, every year of record contributes one value to the extreme value series, either the maximum value (as in the case of flood frequency analysis) or the minimum value (as in the case of low-flow frequency analysis). The former is the annual maxima series; the latter is the annual minima series. The annual exceedance series takes into account all extreme events above a certain base value, regardless of when they occurred. However the annual maxima or minima series considers only one extreme event per yearly period.
3.4.2
Concepts of Statistic and Probability
Frequency analysis uses random variables and probability distributions. A random variable follows a certain probability distribution. A probability distribution is a function that expresses in mathematical terms the relative chance of occurrence of each of all possible outcomes of the random variable.
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3.4.3
Properties of Statistical Distribution
The properties of statistical distributions are described by the following measures: (1) central tendency, (2) variability, and (3) skewness. Statistical distributions are described in terms of moments. The first moment describes central tendency, the second moment describes variability, and the third moment describes skewness. Higher-order moments are possible but are seldom used in practical applications.
3.4.4
Return Period, Frequency, and Risk
The time elapsed between successive peak flows exceeding a certain flow Q is a random variable whose mean value is called the return period T ( or recurrence interval ) of the flow Q. The relationship between probability and return period is the following: P(Q) =
1 T
( Eq 3.7)
In which P(Q) is the probability of exceedance of Q, or frequency. The terms frequency and return period are often used interchangeably, although strictly speaking, frequency is the reciprocal of return period. A frequency of 1/T, or one in T years, corresponds to a return period of T years. The probability of nonexceedance P (Q) is the complementary probability of the probability of exceedance P (Q), defined as P (Q) = 1- P (Q) = 1-
1 T
(Esq. 3.8)
The probability of nonexceedance in n successive years is P(Q) = ( 1-
1 n ) T
( Eq 3.9)
Therefore, the probability, or risk, that Q will occur at least once in n successive years is R = 1 - P(Q) = 1 - ( 1-
1 n ) T
(Eq 3.10)
3.4.5
Plotting Positions
Frequency distributions are plotted using probability papers. One of the scales on a probability paper is a probability scale; the other is either arithmetic or logarithmic scale. Normal and extreme value probability distributions are most often used in probability papers.
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For plotting purposes, the probability of an individual event can be obtained directly from the flood series. For a series of n annual maxima, the following ratio holds:
x m = N n +1
the series; and m = the rank of descending values, with largest equal to 1.
(Eq 3.11)
In which x = mean number of exceedances; N = number of trials; n = number of values in
Since return period T is associated with x = 1. Eq.(3.7) can be expressed as follows:
1 m =P= T n +1
(Eq 3.12)
In which P = exceedance probability. Eq. (3.12) is known as the Weibull plotting position formula. This equation is commonly used in hydrologic applications, particularly for computing plotting positions for unspecified distributions. In computing plotting positions, when the ranking of values is in descending order (from highest to lowest); P is the probability of exceedance, or the probability of a value being greater than or equal to the ranked value. When the ranking values is in ascending order (from lowest to highest), P is the probability of nonexceedance, or the probability of a value being less than or equal to the ranked value.
3.4.6
Frequency Factor
Any value of a random variable may be represented in the following form: x= x + x (Eq 3.13)
In which x = value of random variable; x = mean of the distribution, and x = departure from the mean, a function of return period and statistical properties of the distribution. This departure from the mean can be expressed in terms of the product of the standard deviation s and a frequency factor K such that x = Ks. The frequency factor is a function return period and probability distribution to be used in the analysis. Therefore Eq. (3.13) can be written in the following form: x = x + Ks (Eq 3.14)
Above equation is proposed by Chow as a general equation for hydrologic frequency analysis. For any probability distribution, a relationship can be determined between frequency factor and return period. This relationship can be expressed in analytical terms, in the form of tables, or by K-T curves. In using the procedure, the statistical parameters are first determined from the analysis of the flood series. For a given return period, the frequency factor is determined from the curves or tables and the flood magnitude computed by Eq. (3.14)
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3.4.7
Continuous Probability Distributions
A continuous probability distribution is referred to as a probability density function (PDF). A PDF is an equation relating probability, random variable, and parameters of the distribution. Selected PDFs useful in engineering hydrology are described in this paper.
3.4.8
Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution
Just as the lognormal distribution represents the normal distribution of the logarithms of the variable x, so the 3-Parameter Lognormal represents the normal distribution of the logarithms of the reduced variable (x-a): where a is a lower boundary. The probability density distribution is given by: P(x) =
1 ( x a) y 2
exp
1
2
2 y
{log( x a) }
2 y
(Eq 3.15)
Where y and y are the form and scale parameters, shown later to be the variance of the logarithms of (x-a). Sangal and Biswas (1970) suggested a procedure to estimate the parameters of LN(3) distribution in which only the mean, median and the standard deviation of the data are used.
3.4.8.1 Determination of Frequency Factor

Frequency factor for LN(3) distribution is given by the following equation:
K=
exp ln(1 + z 2 )
2
1/ 2
.t ln(1 + z 2 ) / 2 1.0 z2
2
(Kite )
(Eq 3.16)
Where z1 and z2 represent the coefficients of variation of the distributions x and x-a then Z1 = / Z2 = /( -a) From which a = (1-z1/ Z2) = - / Z2 (Eq 3.17) (Eq 3.18) (Eq 3.19)
The value of z1 can be computed directly from the observed events. Since the second and third moments of the distribution (x-a) do not contain terms in a, the value of z2 can be obtained from the relationship 1 = 3 Z2 + Z2
3
(Eq 3.20)
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Where 1 is the coefficient of skewness of the distribution x. The solution of this equation is Z2 =
1 2 / 3 1/ 3
2
(Eq 3.21)
1 + ( 1 + 4)1/ 2 = 2
t=
(Eq 3.22)
W (2.5255 + 0.80285 W + 0.01033 W 2 ) (1 + 1.14328 W + 0.1893 W 2 + 0.00131W 3 )

2 1/2
(Eq 3.23) (Eq 3.24)
W = [ ln T ]
The procedure is then to compute the mean , standard deviation and coefficient of skew 1 of observed events x.
3.4.9
Pearson Type III Distribution
The probability distribution of the Pearson type III distribution is of the form P(x) = 1/ () . [(x-)/ ]
-1
- [ (x- )/ ]
(Eq 3.25)
Where , and are parameters to be defined and () is the Gamma function.
3.4.9.1 Determination of Frequency Factor

To find the frequency factor K for different values of skewness coefficient, compute the value of W = [ ln T ] Y =
2 1/2
where T = 1/P
(Eq 3.26) (Eq 3.27)

4 5
W (2.5255 + 0.80285 W + 0.01033 W 2 ) (1 + 1.14328 W + 0.1893 W 2 + 0.00131W 3 )

2 3 2 2 3
K = Y+(Y -1). /6 +1/3(Y -6Y).3 /36 -(y -1). /216 +y. ( /6) +1/3. ( /6)
(Eq 3.28)
3.4.10 Extreme Value Type III Distribution

The cumulative probability distribution is given by
x P(x) = exp
(Eq 3.29)
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and the probability density function is
p(x) =
(Eq 3.30)
where is a scale parameter equal to the order of the lowest derivative of the probability function that is not zero at x= Y, is the characteristic drought ( a location or central value parameter) and Y is the lower limit to x.
3.4.10.1
Determination of Frequency Factor
The frequency is given by K = A + B [ { -ln (1-1/T) }

1/
-1 ]
(Eq 3.31)
This expression is dependent only upon the return period T and the coefficient of skew Y1 of the recorded events. If two new variable are defined A and B, such that A is the standardized difference between the characteristics value and the mean and B is the standardized difference between the lower limit and the characteristic value. B = { (1+2/) - (1+1/ ) } A = { 1- (1+1/ ) } B = 1/ { a1 + a21+a3 1 +a4 1 +a5 1 } where a1 = 0.2777757913 a2 = 0.3132617714 a3 = 0.0575670910 So A and B can be computed above Gamma function equations. This polynomial is valid for a range of 1 from -1.02 to 2.00. a4 = -0.0013038566 a5= -0.0081523408
2 3 4 2 -1/2
(Eq 3.32) (Eq 3.33) (Eq 3.34)
3.4.11 Test for Goodness of Fit

The choice of distributions to be used in flood frequency analysis has been a topic of interest for a long time. Hazen (1914) looked at this question in the context of storage design for municipal water supply. The two most commonly used tests of goodness of fit are the chi-square test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (Kite, 1977). An additional check on goodness of fit may be made by computing the sum of squares of differences between observed and computed event magnitudes. It is known as the method of least squares which find the standard errors of the distribution.
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3.4.11.1
Method of Least Squares
A method of comparing the fit of different distributions to a data sample is to compute the sum of squares of the differences between calculated and observed discharges. Bobee and Robitaille used this method to compare calculated discharges at 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-year return periods with discharges at the same return periods interpolated (or extrapolated) from the recorded data. The standard error is given by
SEj =
(X
i=1
Yi ) 2
n mj
]1/2
(Eq 3.35)
Where Xi = recorded events Yi = event magnitudes computed from jth probability distribution N = number of events mj = number of parameters estimated for the jth distribution.
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Chapter 4. Water Resources in Myanmar

4.1 4.1.1 Water Resources Availability General
Although the country is generally blessed with abundant water, this resource is poorly distributed both in space and time. The heavy rains during the south-west monsoon and the torrential downpours associated with sudden storms lead to sustained flooding in wetter areas and to flash floods in the drier parts or in places where steep mountain torrents overflow. Such flood can do immense damage, eroding river banks, sometimes washing away whole section of towns or villages, and at other times forming huge sandbanks that impede navigation. Flash floods may also cause serious erosion of valuable agricultural land. During the dry season, on the other hand, scarcity of water becomes a problem over much of the country. A depth as little as 1.5 m is not uncommon in the Ayeyarwaddy river occurring low water, and 1 m in the Chindwin river; this create considerable difficulties for navigation. Thus, while in parts of the country the scarcity of water makes it imperative that water is used to its maximum potential, elsewhere flood control and the protection of inhabited places and cultivated lands are of vital importance.
4.1.2
Surface Water
Myanmar has five major and over 80 minor rivers. There are two major and seven minor lakes in the country. The major drainage lines in Myanmar are from north to south. The Ayeyarwaddy with its major tributary, the Chindwin, is the largest and the most important river in Myanmar, having a catchment area of 404000 km stretching into the northern mountains, which are the eastern extension of the Himalayan range. In the upper delta region at Pyay, the mean annual inflow for the period 1966 to 1994 is recorded as 12000 m /sec but this average makes a variation from 1600 m /sec at the end of the dry season to more than 16000 m /sec at the peak of the monsoon. The maximum discharge ever recorded at Pyay station was 50460 m /sec and the minimum ever recorded was 1148 m /sec. The Sittaung is a much smaller river with a catchment of about 35000 km .It rises in the Shan highland and Bago Yoma and flows southwards between Bago Yama and Shan
2 3 3 3 3 3 2
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escarpment. Its average flow is about 1300 m /sec but in the dry season it falls somewhere around 55 m /sec. The Thanlwin (Salween) has a catchment of about 285900 km , part of which is outside Myanmar. Its average flow is somewhat more than 7000 m /sec. In addition to these three major drainage systems described above, there are some smaller with independent catchments such as Bago river near Yangon, the streams draining the western slopes of Rakhine Yoma and those draining the Tanintharyi region. There are few lakes in Myanmar. The largest is Inle lake which in the past covered 259 km
2 2 3 2 3
in a basin area of the Shan Plateau. It is the residue of a larger water body that is still shrinking and the present area covers 155 km . Drained by a tributary of Thanlwin river, it abounds in fish and is surrounded by every fertile paddies and a cluster of farm village. It is also a much favored recreation spot. Other lakes and ponds are formed by parts of abandoned rivers courses in upper Myanmar, or are formed by the remaining of marshes of the delta.
4.1.2.1 Major River Basins and Water Resources

The assessment of water resources potential in Myanmar, on the basic of planning units corresponding to its (8) regions of river basins are indicated as in Table 4.1. The north-south direction of Myanmar's mountain ranges is reflected in the flow of its major rivers, of which two are international rivers. - the Ayeyarwady and Chindwin river basin, which is almost entirely located in Myanmar and drains 58 percent of the territory; - the Sittoung River basin, which is also entirely located in Myanmar to the east of the Ayeyarwady, drains 5.4 percent of the territory; - the Thanlwin (Salween) River basin, which drains 18.4 percent of the territory, mainly from the Shan plateau in the east of the country. The river comes from China and after entering the country forms the border with Thailand for about 110 km; - the Mekong River basin, which drains 4.2 percent of the territory in the far east and forms the border with Lao PDR. The Mekong River has 2 percent of its catchment area in Myanmar. - the Rakhine (Arakan) coastal basin in the west draining into the Bay of Bengal; - the Tanintharyi (Tenasserim) coastal basin in the south draining into the Andaman Sea.
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Fig 4.1 Major Drainage Basins of Myanmar (Source : MOAI)
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Table 4.1 Annual Surface and Groundwater Potential in Myanmar Catchment Sr No Area Name of Principal River Basin for each stretch Average Esti. Annual Surface Estimated Groundwater Potential (km3) 57.578 92.599
(000 sq-km) Water (km3) 1 2 Chindwin River Upper Ayeyarwady River (up to its confluence with Chindwin River) Lower Ayeyarwady River (from confluence with Chindwin to its mouth) Sittoung River Rivers in Rakhine State Rivers in Tanintharyi Division Thanlwin River (from Myanmar boundary to its mouth) Mekong River (within Myanmar territory) Total Source: 115.30 193.30 227.920 141.293
3 4 5 6 7 8
95.60 48.10 58.30 40.60 158.00 28.60 737.80
85.800 81.148 139.245 130.927 257.918 17.634 1081.885
153.249 28.402 41.774 39.278 74.779 7.054 494.713
Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Irrigation Department, Water Resources Utilization Department.
The inflow from other countries is estimated at 128.2 km/year and includes: 20 km/year from India, 68.7 km/year (Yuan Yiang) and 31.3 km/year (Lancang) from China, and 8.2 km/year from Thailand. The total surface water produced internally (total runoff minus inflow from other countries) is estimated at 953.9 km/year. The Mekong River forms the border with Lao PDR over 170 km, from which 36.815 km/year can theoretically be considered as an additional external resource.
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4.1.3
Ground Water
There is plenty of groundwater in the non-hilly areas of the country. No accurate and comprehensive data about the depths, locations and sizes of the aquifers have as yet been compiled. However, there is a severe shortage of water during the three months from midFebruary to mid-May. There may even be a drought at the end of May if the rains do not come. The main aquifers are described below, in decreasing order of importance. (i) Alluvial aquifers These are the most important and most explored aquifers located along the Shan escarpment and western mountains ranges of the central Cenozoic belt which supply fresh potable water. Pumping test data show that the permeability is about 10 m /s. Ground water is mostly of the sodium bicarbonate type. The older alluvia are deposited directly on Irrawaddian or Peguan formations and located away from present river courses at an elevation of 25 to 45 m above river level. In the Ayeyarwaddy delta area, the alluvia are believed to be 30 to 100 m thick. In the lower delta area, the chance of obtaining good potable water from shallow aquifers is poor. However in deep tube-wells, the underlying Irrawaddian aquifer produced good potable water. (ii) Irrawaddian Series Next to the alluvium, the Irrawddian is from good aquifers. Ground water is generally fresh, with high discharges, but occasionally slightly saline. Ground water should be classified as of the sodium bicarbonate type. (iii) Peguan Series The Peguans underlay the Irrawaddians and are not good aquifers. The sandy units supply small amount of water. The water quality is poor and is most cases not potable owing to higher salt content. (iv) Tanintharyi, Shan highland and northern mountains Regions In these areas lime stones and metamorphic rocks are found. Wells drilled in the lime stones region produce good, though hard, water. In the metamorphic rocks the quality of water is good, but storage conditions may be poor. Towns and villages located on granites and gneisses depend largely on springs and streams. Groundwater is found in highly weathered and fractured zones, and the yield is small though the quality is excellent.
3
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(v) Western mountain folded belt In this sparsely populated region domestic water supply comes from streams and springs. Water quality is good. (vi) Rakhine Coastal Plain The alluvial deposits from poor aquifers and saline water encroachment are limiting water extraction. In recent years, groundwater demand has increased in the country for such multiple uses as rural and urban domestic use and industrial and irrigation use. In this connection, groundwater quality management plays a major role in the sustainable development and use of groundwater resources. According to the records, the first tube well of Myanmar was drilled in 1889. In Myanmar, groundwater exploration, exploitation, control and management tasks are mainly undertaken by the government sector. The major government organizations, division and authorities concerned with groundwater development are listed in Appendix-A.
4.1.4
Non- Conventional Water Resources
Non-conventional water resources generally refer to those additional water resources made available through desalinization of sea water or brackish water, artificial rain created by cloud seeding, and recycling of waste water (domestic, industrial and irrigation) after it has passed through appropriate treatment processes that approve the quality of recycled water to the standard required by the respective water users. In view of the availability of adequate fresh raw water resources and in view of the lack of technology and financial resources in Myanmar to introduce treatment processes that would enable recycled water to be used, non-conventional water resources in Myanmar are almost negligible.
4.2 4.2.1
Water Quality Surface Water
The water quality in the rivers of Myanamr is reported to be deteriorating gradually, particularly with regard to turbidity. The main reason for this is that the suspended solids load of the rivers is increasing progressively as a result of deforestation and other development activities in the catchment areas. It is supported that the countrys forest are being denuded at the rate of 2.1 % per year, which is affecting water quality as well as the environment. For example, Fugyi reservoir, which is a part of the water supply system for Yangon city, is already being affected by the increasing silt inflow into the reservoir and
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UNDP assistance has been sought to implement appropriate catchment management. A sedimentation problem is also affecting other hydraulic structures in the country, including the many irrigation facilities in use. The rates of soil erosion are reported to be highest over the Bago Yoma area, reaching as high as 2 tons/km . The effects of agricultural chemicals on water quality have not so far been recognized because of a lack of monitoring of chemical parameters. However, it appears that the consumption of fertilizers in Myanmar is relatively modest at present, totaling about 165,000 tons in 1990/91. It is also reported that salinity intrusion has reached well into the inland areas along the tidal lower reaches of the Ayeyarwaddy river system. A maximum chloride content of 1000 mg/l has been observed in the river at Pathein, Mawlamyinegyun and Thabawchaung during the dry season.
2
4.2.2
Groundwater
In the dry zone hydrological studies quoted above, studies of groundwater chemistry indicate that the shallow groundwater is of low to moderate salinity (1000-2000 microseimens/cm) mainly of a sodium bicarbonate type in all areas. Although there is little variation in the degree of salinity in the vertical direction (i.e. with depth), there are some variations in the horizontal direction (i.e. laterally).
4.3
National Water Sector Context
Water basin characteristics in Myanmar are quite variable due to the differences in physiographic feature. The principal water resources flowing separately in the country comprise eight major river basins and their tributaries. All rivers, with the exception of Thanlwin, located within the Myanmar territory can be nationally owned water assets. Their drainage areas are widely spread over the country, endowing with about 1082 km per annum from drainage area of about 737629 km
2 3
(284800 sq.miles). The monthly
distribution of the flow of the rivers closely follows the pattern of rainfall, about 80% during the rainy season (May-October) and 20% in the dry season (November-April). There are about (200) gauging stations under irrigation department for water level recording and also for discharge measurement. Total of about (70) hydrological stations are installed along Ayeyarwaddy, Chindwin, Myitnge, Sittoung, Thanlwin, Bago and Kalandan rivers since 1965 by department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH). DMH has about 30 discharge stations, 20 sediment discharge stations on main rivers and main tributaries and also about 15 water quality stations on rivers of Ayeyarwaddy catchment
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area for measuring discharge and sediment flows and monitoring salt intrusion. These measuring data are valuable for National Planning related with water management. The ministry of forestry is responsible for the rehabilitation and conservation of forest and the watersheds and for keeping stability of environment, to develop the social and economic conditions of the nation, especially for rural people. For all environmental matters, the national commission for environmental affairs (NCEA) was formed in February, 1990 and the environmental conservation committee was also formed in March, 2004 with the aim to carry out the environmental conservation activities in the country effectively and systematically.
4.4
Water Resource Utilization and Challenges
Myanmar is an agricultural country. It bounds in abundance of water resources. The agricultural sector is the most basic economic of the state as well as the main livelihood of the rural areas, since the rural people represent about 70% of the nations population. The development program for agriculture, livestock breeding and fisheries sectors are also included. Total numbers of irrigation facilities are amounted to (176) from 1988 to end of June, 2005. Dams and reservoirs are providing irrigation water over one million hectares of farm land. In addition to dams, river water pumping stations, underground water tapping stations and small dams have been built throughout the nations. A total of (271) river pumping projects have been implemented and irrigating about (0.12) million hectares of cultivated land. In addition completed (7478) tube wells could have been provided to irrigate (0.036) million hectares of farm lands. There are some tributaries originated from the western hill region and southern part of the country which constitutes around 10% in terms of catchment area and surface runoff. Hydropower potential of these tributaries has a considerable amount. The total generated power is being estimated as 390MW and that is almost 1% of potential generated power in the country. The development of the electrical power projects are being implemented wherever possible in the nation to fulfill its electricity needs. Groundwater withdrawal for domestic, industrial and irrigation usage, as per Myanmar Agriculture Sector Review Report (2004), stands at (2.86 km ). Despite enormity of groundwater potentials that amounted to 495 km , availability of groundwater in both quantity and quality restricts to alluvial and Ayeyarwaddian aquifers which however further often limited by recently findings of sporadic contamination of health injurious chemicals,
3 3
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arsenic in particular, especially in the part of Ayeyarwaddy delta, Sittoung valley, western coastal area and Inlay lake region. There are several problems faced by the water sector. These include unusual rainfall patterns in some years, flood and drought in some of the main agricultural areas of country, the impact of shifting cultivation, forest degradation and conflict of interests for management within the sectors and lack of co-ordination within agencies. The most important challenges include, to strengthen the legal framework for an effective and harmonious integration of water resources management, (1) development and protection activities into the socio economic development process of the country, (2) to enhance and consolidate the existing systems, (3) to operate, maintain and rehabilitate facilities safely, reliably and efficiently and (4) to prioritize the capacity building needs so as to enhance organizational capacity and effectiveness of the water resources coordination system.
4.5
Water-Related Response Indicators
(i) Sustainable use of water resources (ii) Implementation of schemes to provide adequate drainage and ensuring proper maintenance; improving water management practices, particularly discouraging overwatering; improving maintenance of canals and on-farm ponds and reducing seepage from water courses; undertaking soil reclamation schemes. (iii) Increased cultivation of salt-tolerant crops, or water intensive crops (iv) Review of policies about the pricing of irrigation water or of energy for water pumping.
4.6
Trends in Water resources Management
Within the framework of its irrigation policy, MOAI has decided to undertake: (i) the construction of new reservoirs and dams; (ii) the rehabilitation of existing reservoirs and networks of both government and private sectors, in order to upgrade the storage capacity and allow for an efficient delivery of irrigation water; (iii) the development of flood protection by embankment, and irrigation expansion after flood recession; (iv) the development of pump irrigation; (v) the development of an efficient use of groundwater for irrigation. The official target for irrigation development is to irrigate 25 percent of cultivated areas before 2000, which is realistic regarding the ongoing and planned projects. Concerning the
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flood protected areas, no target has been fixed by the Government although some 400 000 ha in the delta are in need of reclamation. All new projects related to dam construction are now multipurpose projects and include flood control, town water supply, hydroelectricity and irrigation. The priority for multipurpose projects with hydropower is an indicator of the expanding demand for energy.
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Chapter 5. Outline of the Chindwin River Basin

5.1 Region under the Study
Among the four major rivers, the Chindwin is the third largest river in the country. The Chindwin basin occupies almost the entire North Western part of Myanmar. It is significant for the development of the country as a whole and especially the area in the river basin is rather great. The Chindwin with its tributaries is practically the most convenient way of communication within the basin, and it also communicates the basin with the main economically developed areas of the country. The Chindwin basin is located in upper Sagaing Division, where Meteorological & Hydrological data are available at the stations along this river, such as Monywa, as shown in Figure 5.3. The source from in of the Chindwin Kachin
radiates plateau. mountain Chindwin River Ayeyarwaddy River
The second highest Myanmar,
Saramali with the elevation of 3826 m, is also located on the upper Chindwin catchment area. Since it passes through the mountainous region there are numerous streams, flowing into the Chindwin river.
Fig 5.1 Chindwin River joining to Ayeyarwaddy River (Source: http://earth.google.com)
These streams are small tributaries of the Chindwin river. The large tributaries of Chindwin river are U Yu and Myittha, where U Yu, flows into Chindwin near Homalin and Myittha near Kalewa (Phyu Oo Khin 1998). Chindwin river collects its head waters in the northern Sagaing division, and flows into the Ayeyarwaddy river between Mandalay and Bagan. The double deckers sail up to Maw Leik; beyond that only the smaller motor boats would go. In the dry season (February to May) the large boats may go only up to Kale Wa. The Chindwin basin is the second busiest river for navigation and thousands of cultivated lands are inside the catchmnet area. Thus socio-economic condition of the region relies on its water resources.
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Fig 5.2 Location of the Chindwin Basin (Source: Ni Lar Aye, 2001)
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Gauging Station
Fig 5.3 Chindwin Basin Map with Discharge Observation Station (Source: Ni Lar Aye, 2001)
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5.2
Topography
The Chindwin river in its upper reaches is known as the Tanai Hka, and rises near the Ayeyarwaddy watershed in the Kachin hills in lat. 25 40 N. and long. 97 E., flowing almost due north until it enters the south-east corner of the Hukawng valley. In the Hukawng valley it is joined by two important tributaries, the Taron and the Tawan Hka from the north. After leaving the valley it descends rapidly through a gorge with frequent rapids and waterfalls until it enters Singkaling Kanti, whence it preserves a general southerly course to its junction with the Ayeyarwaddy some ten miles north-east of Pakokku. Six kilometers (Four miles) below Homalin the Chindwin receives an important tributary on the left bank-the U Yu river, which rises in the Myintkyina district and is the famous repository of part of the valuable Myanmar jade. On the right bank it receives the Yu at Yuwa and the Myittha at Kalewa, from which it receives the drainage of the Chin hills. season the vessels ply up to Homalin. The basin of Chindwin river is, in general, a mountainous forested terrain with the only exception of its lowest southern part which is a vast plain. The highest mountains are to be found to the West and North of the basin where they reach 300m and more. Fig 5.4 Transportation by Small Boat in Chindwin River (Source: http://www.pbase.com/rovebeetle/image/41479890) From the East the watershed passes a mountain chain of 1000m1500m high. The source of the river, which in its upper reaches before entering the Hukawng Valley, bears the name of Tanai Hka, flowing at the height of about 2100m, then within the distance of 130km it goes down to the height of 210m and enters the Hukawng Valley. There it receives several tributaries, gets the name of Chindwin and on the whole of its flow of 1000km down to its confluence with the Ayeyarwaddy has a gradient of 137m. After confluence with Myittha, the Chindwin enters a spacious plain that extends as far as the Ayeyarwaddy. The main stream is navigable by light vessels as far as Pantha throughout the year; in the rainy
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5.3
General Climate
The major
Myanmar has the effects of monsoon in different parts of the country.
contribution of rainfall in the Chindwin basin is from rainfall over the catchment. The heavy rainfalls are generally caused by monsoon trough and strong monsoon. Amount of rainfall decreases from upstream to downstream of the basin according to the isohyetal map of Chindwin basin (Appendix-B). The monthly and annual maximum amounts of rainfalls over the catchment are about 686 mm and 2455 mm respectively. Maximum mean annual temperature at Monywa station is 29C whereas the minimum mean annual temperature amounts to 25C. Both rainfall and temperature vary in the whole basin. The lower part of the Chindwin basin is situated in the dry zone of Myanmar. Dry zone comprises Lower Sagaing, Mandalay and Magway Divisions and has an area of about 54,390 km (21,000 square miles) or about 10 per cent of the country.. There are altogether 13 districts and 57 townships in the Dry Zone. The Dry Zone suffers intense heat of monthly temperature ranging from minimum of 10C in the cool months to maximum of above 40C in dry months. Annual rainfall varies between 500mm and 1000mm.
2
5.4
Land Use and Land Cover
For the land use purpose, six major classes are defined as follows; (a) Good Forest (closed Forest) This includes Moist Forest (M), Semi-Indaing (Id), Dry Forest (DF), Hill Forest (H), High Indaing (In), Mixed Deciduous Forest (MDF), Moist Forest with Bamboo (M/B), Bamboo Breaks of Rakhine Yoma and Forest Plantations (Pt). Good means good vegetation cover for Dry Zone management. Some areas may not be good for Forest Management (timber production). (b) Degraded Forest This includes Scrub Forest (Sc), Scrub with Grassland (Sc/Gr), Scrub with Bamboo (Sc/B) and Grass land (Gr). Some area needs only natural regeneration methods. (c) Shifting Cultivation This includes Shifting Cultivation (Sh), Shifting cultivation with Bamboo (Sh/B), and Scrub land affected with Shifting Cultivation (Sc/Sh).
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(d) Agriculture This includes Permanent Agriculture (Af), Agriculture with vegetative bunds (Af/B), Ya cultivation (Y), Alluvial Island Cultivation (Al) and Homestead Gardens (At). (e) Water This includes open water, lakes and major irrigation systems. (f) Others This includes Swamp areas (Um), Sand (S) and Settlements (Ui). Land use maps are shown in Appendix-B. The Chindwin river basin is contributed mainly by tertiary continental sediments. Among them more frequently found are sand-stones of different hardness, less frequent are clay with gypseous veins, shales and lime-stones. The width of the river varies from 91m (300 ft) to 3048m (10,000 ft). Chindwin catchment area covers 97516 sq. km (Ni Lar Aye, 2001). The Chindwin basin has approximately 50000 ha (120, 000 acres) of cultivated land. About 90% of the basin is thickly covered by valuable species of wood. (Phyu Oo Khin 1998).
Table 5.1 Area portion of Land Use and Land Cover (U Tin New & U Khin Soe, 2004) Name of Sub-basin Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa L U&C(C.F) (%) 48.435 46.38 47.385 53.53 51.618 L U&C(D.F) (%) 29.627 35.95 37.976 29.99 29.302 L U&C(S.C) (%) 3.050 2.26 1.331 1.59 1.375 L U&C(A.L) (%) 18.755 14.97 12.830 14.47 17.171 L U&C(o) (%) 0.133 0.43 0.478 0.41 0.534
Where, L U&C(C.F) L U&C(D.F) L U&C(S.C) L U&C(A.L) L U&C(o) = Closed Forest Type (%) = Degraded Forest Type (%) = Shifting Cultivation (%) = Agriculture Land (%) = Other Type (%)
Lower part of the Chindwin basin is situated in the dry zone of Myanmar. The Dry Zone is a vast semi-arid low land between two higher regions, the Shan plateau on the East and the
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Rakhine Yoma and Chin hills on the west. Two major rivers, the Ayeyarwady and the Chindwin flow through the Dry Zone from North to South connecting it to the Deltaic region in the South. The original vegetation of central Dry Zone is described as Savannah woodland which consisted deciduous trees and a ground flora composed of different species of grass. Dry zone greening department has implemented forest plantation in the dry zone since 1995.
5.5
Soil Type and Basin Characteristics

2
The area portions (km ) of different soil classification for five sub-basins of Chindwin catchment are shown in Table 5.2. The basin characteristic of Chindwin catchment are taken from the topographical map of Myanmar land map and shown in Table 5.3.
Table 5.2 Major Soil Classification of the Chindwin Basin (U Tin New & U Khin Soe, 2004) Soil Type Meadow Alluvial Basin Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa Soil (clay) 21015 25514 31133 33688 34357 Red Brown Forest Soil (silty clay) 6425 11555 31943 40508 48346 358 10080 10080 1640 2292 Chin Hill Complex Soil (Sand & Gravel) Savanna Soil (Sandy Silt) Red & Yellow Earth (Silt)
Table 5.3 Basin Characteristics of the Chindwin Catchment (U Tin New & U Khin Soe, 2004) Discharge P Station Hkamti Homalin Mawlaik Kalewa Monywa (km) 2148 2923 4985 6437 7609 27440 37070 63438 84419 97516 A (km )
2
L (km) 347 546 766 825 1046
Ls (km) 5726 8237 14173 17774 20791
Dd (km/ km ) 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21

2
Sequ
Sbavg
0.0013 0.0002 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003
0.104 0.122 0.188 0.121 0.114
0.49 0.48 0.47 0.43 0.43
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Where, P A L Ls Dd = Perimeter of Catchment = Catchment Area = Length of River = Total Length of streams in the Catchment = Drainage Density ( Ls/A )
Sequ = Equivalent Slope of the river Sbavg = Average Slope of the basin B = Soil Factor
5.6
Water Utilization
According to the available information, there is only one weir in Chindwin catchment (as of Sagaing Division) and it provides about 1400 ha. It might be assumed that there were some cultivated areas by local farmers with their own traditional ways without using the water from the government projects. These are hardly be achieved and the cultivated area provided by the irrigation projects which are totally managed by the government. Since 1990, the irrigation schemes have gained momentum not only in the study area but also through out the country. From 1996, pumping irrigation projects were introduced by Water Resource Utilization Department along the Chindwin river only for agriculture purpose. Irrigation development both by reservoir and direct pumping from Chindwin river are shown in Appendix-A. Ground water extraction like drilling tube wells plays a vital role for rural water supply and agriculture purpose. This information hardly can be monitored.
7000 6000 Pumping Irrigation (ha) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year 2001 2002 2003 2004
Fig 5.5 Irrigation Development along the Chindwin River by Direct Pumping
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Chapter 6. Data Description and Analysis of Collected Data

6.1 Description of Collected Data Series
For drought study, it needs annual minimum flow and to be random variables. If other climatic parameters are available, the study is more efficient. According to Shaw (1984), at least 20 years of data should be obtained in order to achieve reliable results. There may be gaps in the low flow data series. However, Mutreja (1986) noted that theoretically there is no requirement of continuous record of annual minimum series. Hence, if annual minimum flows of some years are missing, it is not a problem and it is unnecessary to fill the missing data or discard the broken data from further analysis. U.S.G.S restricted about the magnitude of low flow that there is no lower stream flow level of 0.05 ft /s (0.0014 m /s) below which any measurement is reported as a zero (Maung Aung Moe). In this study, Chindwin river is selected as a case area. It is a perennial stream and impact of its water resource reflects the countrys socio-economic condition. Here mean daily discharges were collected for 30-years ( 1975-2004) at Monywa station which is the most downstream portion of the river. Hence these discharges cover the whole basin. There are six rainfall gauging stations in the Chindwin catchment (AppendixB). Mean annual rainfall of the chindwin basin which is average value of these six stations and mean monthly temperature of Monywa station were available for 31 years (1975-2005). Fig 6.1 Location of the gauging Station (Source: http://earth.google.com) All data have been provided by the department of Meteorology and Hydrology and shown in Appendix-C. In the duration curve analysis and in the determination of master recession curve, collected daily discharges are used. For frequency analysis low water discharge of 1-day minimum can be wrong because of short-lived human actions. Thus 7-day minimum discharges (NM7Q) are used in the analysis to avoid the errors.
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Chindwin river
Gauging Station
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First NM1Q, NM7Q, NM14Q and NM30Q of each year are calculated using moving average method from the collected data series and NM7Q is shown in Table 6.1. And then required statistical parameters are calculated for the data test and shown in Table 6.2. Table 6.1 7-day minimum discharge for each year in the collected data series Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 NM7Q (m3/s) 715,6 905 800.6 676.4 539.3 759.7 795.7 654.6 668.6 608.4 Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 NM7Q (m3/s) 622.3 595.6 669.4 614.1 788.6 913.1 865.7 1047 998.7 658.1 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 NM7Q (m3/s) 685.3 636.3 463.3 768.4 500.9 673.3 535.3 689.9 774.4 612.6
Annual Low Flows (NM7Q) 1200 1000 NM7Q (m3/s) 800 600 400 200 0 1970
1975
1980
1985
1990 Year
1995
2000
2005
2010
Fig 6.2 Annual Low Flows ( 7-day minimum) of the Data Set
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6.2
Determination of Statistical Parameters of the collected Data Set
Statistical parameters such as mean, standard deviation and skewness coefficient are determined by following equations. Mean, x Standard deviation, Skewness coefficient, 6.3) Table 6.2 Statistical Parameters of data set of NM7Q Station Data Length 30 Natural Value Mean x (m /s) 707.8733
3
n
xi /n
i=1
(Eq 6.1)
2
= (xi (xi )/n ) / (n-1)

3 2 3
(Eq 6.2)
3
= ( n2 xi 3n xi xi + 2 (xi) ) / (n(n-1) (n-2) ) (Eq
Logarithmic Value Mean y 6.54404 Standard. Deviation 0.19343 Skewness coefficient 0.13903
Std. Dev (m /s) 139.4771

3
Skewness coefficient 0.646802
Monywa
6.3
Analysis of Collected Data Series
The low water discharge can be influenced by short-lived isolated events and longer lasting or even continuous actions in the drainage area (inhomogeneous data). It is also possible that the data are wrong because of errors in the discharge measurements, etc. Considering short-lived alterations, the extreme low water discharge have to be checked with regard to disturbances by Temporary hold back in reservoirs Unusual situations at intakes and effluents newly given or expired rights for intake and effluents, river training at the observed river or its tributaries, construction of sewage water treatment plants.
Other circumstances have no longer lasting or continuous influence, for instance:
It is always useful to visit the examined gauging station and to try to find out possible influences upon the measured values brought about by the surrounding area. The observation period should comprise at least 20-30 years. Two basic assumptions in statistical flood frequency analysis are the independence and stationary of the data series. In addition, the assumption that the data come from the same distribution (homogeneity) is made.
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In this study, three types of test, namely independence and stationary test, homogeneity test and outliers test are carried out especially for frequency analysis to check the reliability of collected data series and to reduce the possible errors.
6.3.1
Test for Independence and Stationary

Given a sample of size N, the Wald-Wolfowitz (1943) (W-W) test is used to test for
the independence of a data set and to test for the existence of trends in it. For a data set x1, x2, x3,.., xN the statistic R is calculated from Eq. 6.4. R=
N1
i=1
xi xi+1 + x1 xN
(Eq 6.4)
When the elements of the sample are independent, R follows a normal distribution with mean and variance given by Eqs. 6.5 and 6.6,
2
R=
var (R) =
( s1 s 2 ) N 1
2 (s 4s1 + 4s1s 3 + s 2 2s 4 ) s2 s4 R + 1 N 1 (N 1)(N 2) 2 4 2 2
(Eq 6.5)
(Eq 6.6)
where sr = Nmr and mr is the rth moment of the sample about the origin. The statistic u = (R- R )/(var (R))1/2 is approximately normally distributed with mean zero and variance unity and is used to test the hypothesis of independence at significance level , by comparing the statistic u with the standard normal variate u/2 corresponding to a probability of exceedance /2.
6.3.1.1 Result of the Test

Standard Deviation of the data series = 139.4771 R = 27532386 S1= Nm1' = 21236.2 S3 = Nm3 = 1.19x1010
S4 = Nm4' = 9.40x1012 , S12 = 450976190.4 , S14= 2.034x1017 S2 = Nm2' = 15596702 , S22 = 2.432 x 1014
R = 15013086
var (R) = 9.8x109
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Table 6.3 Result of Independence Test Critical u Station Statistic u at the significance level ( = 5%) Monywa 0.035739 Conclusion Remark Considering both sides Accept of distribution function
1.96
The test value u = 0.035739 is less than the critical value at 5% significance level u0.025 = 1.96. Thus we can accept the hypothesis of independence and stationary. So the chindwin river data at Monywa station are concluded to be independent and stationary at the 5% significance level.
6.3.2
Test for Homogeneity and Stationary
In this test two samples of size p and q with p q are compared. The combined data set of size N = p + q is ranked in increasing order. The Mann-Whitney (1947) test considers the quantities V and W in Eqs. 6.7 and 6.8.
V=R-
(P(P + 1)) 2
(Eq 6.7) (Eq 6.8)
W = pq V
R is the sum of the ranks of the elements of the first sample (size p) in the combined series (size N), and V and w are calculated from R, p and q. V represents the number of times an item in sample 1 follows an item in sample 2 in the ranking. Similarly, w can be computed for sample 2 following sample 1. The Mann-Whitney statistics U is defined by the smaller of V and W. When N>20 and p,q >3 and under the null hypothesis that two samples came from the same population, U is approximately normally distributed with mean U = variance var(U), Var(U) = [
pq and 2
pq N3 N ][ - T] N(N 1) 12
(Eq 6.9)
Where T = ( J3 J )/12 and J is the number of observations tied at a given rank. T is summed over all groups of tied observations in both samples of size p and q. The statistic u = ( U - U )/ [var(U)]1/2 is used to test the hypothesis of homogeneity at significance level by comparing it with the standard normal variate for that significance level.
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The data set was divided into two sets each length of p = 15, q = 15. Calculated parameters and result are as follows; R = 224 V = 119 W = 106 U = 106 ( smaller value of V and W )
U = 112.5
Var(U) =581.25 Table 6.4 Result of Homogeneity Test Critical u Station Statistic u at the significance level ( = 5%) Monywa -0.269607 Conclusion Remark Considering both sides Accept of distribution function
1.96
Since the modulus value of statistic u for homogeneity test is less than the critical values at 5% significant level u0.025 = 1.96, the Chindwin river data at Monywa station can be
considered to be homogeneous and stationary at 5% significant level.
6.3.3
Test for Outliers
An outlier is an observation that deviates significantly from the bulk of the data, which may be due to errors in data collection, or recording, or due to Natural causes. The presence of outliers in the data causes difficulties when fitting a distribution to the data. Low and high outliers are both possible and have different effect on the analysis. The Grubbs and Beck (1972) test (G-B) may be used to detect outliers. In this test the quantities xH and xL are calculated by using Eqs. (6.10) and (6.11). xH = exp ( x + kNs ) xL = exp ( x - kNs ) (Eq 6.10) (Eq 6.11)
where x and s are the mean and standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the sample, respectively, and kN is the G-B statistic tabulated for various sample sizes and significance levels by Grubbs and Beck (1972). At the 10% significance level, the following approximation proposed by Pilon et al. (1985) is used, where N is the sample size.
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kN = -3.62201+ 6.28446N1/4 2.49835N1/2 + 0.491436N3/4 0.037911N
(Eq 6.12)
Calculated kN values using above equation are given for different sample size (N) in Table 6.5. Tanble 6.5 kN vues for Outlier test (Source: A.R. Rao and K.H. Hamed, 2000) Sample Size N 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 kN 2.036 2.088 2.134 2.175 2.213 2.247 2.279 2.309 2.335 2.361 2.385 2.408 2.429 Sample Size N 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 kN 2.448 2.467 2.486 2.502 2.519 2.534 2.549 2.563 2.577 2.591 2.604 2.616 2.628 Sample Size N 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 kN 2.639 2.650 2.661 2.671 2.682 2.692 2.700 2.710 2.719 2.727 2.736 2.744 2.753 Sample Size N 49 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 kN 2.760 2.768 2.804 2.837 2.866 2.893 2.917 2.940 2.961 2.981 3.000 3.017 3.049
Sample values greater than xH are considered to be high outliers, while those less than xL are considered to be low outliers.

By using equations (6.10), (6.11) and statistical parameter of NM7Q data series, calculated values of QH and QL for the selected are given in Table 6.6. Table 6.6 Result of Outlier Test Station Monywa N 30 Years kN 2.563 Computed Value (m /s) QH 1141.175 QL 423.382
3
Observed Value (m /s) Max NM7Q 1047 m3/s Min NM7Q 463.3
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By comparing the computed values and observed maximum and minimum NM7Q, it is found that the computed QH is higher than the observed Max NM7Q and the computed QL is lower than observed Min NM7Q. There is no high or low outliers in the data set. It is to be considered as a freedom of outliers at 10% significance level.
6.4
Summary Result of Data Test
According to the results of the tests mentioned above, the final conclusion can be summarized that the hypothesis is acceptable at the 5 % significance level for independence and homogeneity tests and at the 10% significance level for outlier test. So further analyses continue in coming chapters. Summery results of data tests are shown in Table 6.7. Table 6.7 Summery Result of the Data Test Station Monywa Data Length 30 Years Data Test Independence Homogeneity Outlier Result Accept Accept Accept Remark At 5% significance level At 5% significance level At 10% significance level
6.5
Main Activities of Low Flow Analysis in the Region
To be able to quantify the latter drought characteristics for the Chindwin river, it is necessary to define a threshold level below which the flow or groundwater is regarded as being in a drought situation. The derivation of hydrological drought characteristics, including time series and indices, can be expressed by considering a time series of daily streamflow or groundwater recharge, levels or discharge and main activities for the determination of low flow indices are illustrated in Fig 6.3. These describe the low flow regime of a river. They can be an index obtained using the whole time series of flow directly in its derivation.
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Original Time Series of Observation

30000
Daily Discharge (m3/s)
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Time Step (day)
Select Annual Minimum Flows

30000
Daily Discharge (m3/s)
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Time Step (day)
Select a Low Flow Index (Percentile from FDC)

100000
Select Recession Portions

30000 25000
Daily Q (m3/s)
20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 500 1000 1500 200
10000
1000
100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time Step (day)

Exceed ance F r eq uency ( %)
Calculate a low flow index from the time series
Calculate a low flow index from MRC
I
Examples of Indices I. II. III. Period of record EFQ90 7Q10 MRC Constant
III
Fig 6.3 Derivation of Low Flow characteristics (Modified from DWS 48)
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Chapter 7. Duration Curve Analysis

7.1 Introduction
The flow duration curve (FDC) of daily flows is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the percent of time a specified discharge has been equaled or exceeded during a given period, and has been used as a useful tool for various water resources problems. The flow duration curve shows the statistical distribution of daily mean stream flows for a period of years, and the lower end of that curve is a useful expression of the low flow characteristics of the stream. A flow duration curve characterizes the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Information concerning the relative amount of time that flows past a site are likely to equal or exceed a specified value of interest is extremely useful for the planning of hydraulic structures. The shape of a flow-duration curve in its upper and lower regions is particularly significant in evaluating the stream and basin characteristics. The shape of the curve in the highflow region indicates the type of flood regime the basin is likely to have, whereas, the shape of the low-flow region characterizes the ability of the basin to sustain low flows during dry seasons. A very steep curve (high flows for short periods) would be expected for rain-caused floods on small watersheds. Snowmelt floods, which last for several days, or regulation of floods with reservoir storage, will generally result in a much flatter curve near the upper limit. In the low-flow region, an intermittent stream would exhibit periods of no flow, whereas, a very flat curve indicates that moderate flows are sustained throughout the year due to natural or artificial streamflow regulation, or due to a large groundwater capacity which sustains the base flow to the stream. Low flow analysis for Chindwin river has made extensive use of single flow indices or exceedance (flow duration) percentiles, which are the second most widely used hydrological environmental flow method, after the Tennant method (Tharme, 2003). The exceedance percentile Q90 can be interpreted as the drought discharge which can be expected to be exceeded 90% of the time.
7.2
Use of the Duration Curve
Low flow percentiles can be selected from the flow duration curve to determine the low flow index sometimes known as low flow statistic, measure, parameter and variable in the literature. The lower end of the duration curve is an expression of low flow characteristics of a stream, but it provides less information than a low flow frequency curve, because the duration curve applies to the period of record rather than to a year. Nevertheless, frequent
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request for duration curves indicate that they are used as a tool in water related studies. Low flow percentiles from flow duration curve are used in various water management applications such as water supply, hydropower and irrigation planning and design, discharge permits, river and reservoir sedimentation studies and water transfer and withdrawals. Furthermore, station data for any period can be economically arranged in duration form by the computer, and tabular expression of values from the duration curve requires only one line per station in a report. The period or periods selected for computation of duration for a given station should correspond to the period of natural flow or to a period that represents particular conditions imposed on the basin.
7.3
Study Area and Data
Although the country is generally blessed with abundant water, this resources is poorly distributed both space and time. The heavy rains during the southwest monsoon and the torrential downpours associated with sudden storms lead to sustained flooding in the wetter areas and to flash floods in the drier parts or in place where steep mountain torrents overflow. During the dry season, on the other hand, scarcity of water becomes a problem over much of the country. A depth of as little as 1 m, providing 640 m /s of river flow, is not uncommon in the Chindwin river and this creates considerable difficulties for navigation (UN reports). This might be especially for the navigation by light boat in the river and this value indicates the most minimum requirement of water level in the river. Based on the collected data series during 1975 to 2004, the estimation of flow duration curve is applied for different time reaches in order to detect possible changes of low flow characteristics with time and to define the low flow index as well.
3
7.4
Percentiles from the Flow Duration Curve
In order to trace the changes of low flow pattern, flow duration curves for every 10-year periods were drawn and studied the tail portion of the duration curves which show the low flow indices of the period. Daily streamflow data of each 10-year period at Monywa station are used here to construct a flow duration curve based on a daily time step, t = 1 day. The total number of t interval is then N = 3653 days for 1975-1984 interval and 1985-2004 interval. Between 1985 and 1994, the total number of days is 3652. Then the flow duration curves were constructed according to following steps (Developments in Water Science, 48).
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(a) The rank, m of each value is calculated, which means that if the list is sorted, the rank will be its position. Here the series is sorted in descending order and the mth largest value has the rank m (i.e the largest value has rank 1). (b) The exceedance frequency, EFQm is calculated as EFQm = m/N which gives as estimate of the empirical exceedance frequency of the mth largest event. EFQ designates here the observed frequency when the flow Q, is larger than the flow value with rank m, Qm. (c) The FDC was tabulated corresponding to the values of streamflows ( Q in m3/s) and exceedance frequency (EFQmth in %). Table 7.1 lists the first seven flow values for sample expression. The sorted table columns are then plotted. The ordinate axis was here logarithmic. (d) Values for a particular frequency, for example the 90-percentile (Q90), can be obtained as the value of Q corresponding to the largest value of EFQm that is less than or equal to the value of EFQm sought for. Corresponding values are shown in Table 7.2 Table 7.1 Calculation of a daily FDC for Chindwin River at Monywa Station Data, 10-year series Rank, m 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 27300 26750 26450 26050 25750 25700 25200 Calculation of Flow Duration Curve Streamflow (m /s)
3
Exceedance frequency = m/N *100 (%) 0.0273 0.0547 0.0821 0.1095 0.1369 0.1642 0.1916
This percentile value is used to define the drought discharge in the study area. Detail specification to select the appropriate percentile could not found and it is normally taken 97%, 95% and 90%. Here theoretical drought discharge of Chindwin basin are described as the flow value corresponding to the largest value of EFQ90 that is less than or equal to the value of EFQ90. The flow duration curve (FDC) plots the empirical cumulative frequency of streamflow as a function of the percentage of time that the streamflow is exceeded. As such, the curve is constructed by ranking the data, and for each value of the frequency of exceedance is computed. The empirical FDCs of the river Chindwin at Monywa station for each 10-year
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interval are shown in Fig 7.1, 7.2 and 7.3. FDCs represent the streamflow variability of a catchment. Both high and low flows are included. To improve the readability of the curve, streamflow is often plotted on a logarithmic scale. It is also common to let the abscissa scale be based on the normal probability distribution. But here normal scale was used in the figures to express the percentiles.
Duration Curve (1975-1984) 100000
10000 Q (m3/s) 1000 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Exceedance Frequency (%)
Fig 7.1 Duration Curve for the period of 1975-1984
Duration Curve (1985-1994) 100000
10000 Q (m3/s) 1000 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Fig 7.2 Duration Curve for the period of 1985-1994
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Duration Curve (1995-2004) 100000
10000 Q (m3/s) 1000 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Fig 7.3 Duration Curve for the period of 1995-2004 Table 7.2 Streamflow values corresponding to EFQ90 First 10 years 1975-1984 EFQm (%) 90 Drought Discharge 3 (m /s) 769 Second 10 years 1985-1994 EFQm (%) 90 Drought Discharge 3 (m /s) 785 Third 10 years 1995-2004 EFQm (%) 90 Drought Discharge 3 (m /s) 712
7.5
Evaluation of Flow Duration Curves
Flow duration curves for each interval are then compared in order to evaluate the patterns of low flows conditions according to the period. Especially lower parts are to be checked. Here three FDC for each interval are drawn and shown in Fig 7.4. In order to see clearly the patterns of tail portions of FDCs, Fig 7.5 is more helpful.
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Comparison of Duration Curves 100000
10000 Q (m3/s)
75-84
85-94
1000
95-04
100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Exceedance Frequency (%)
Fig 7.4 Comparison of flow duration curves for every 10-year period
1600 1400 1200 Discharge (m /s) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2150
(85-94)
3
(75-84)
(95-04)
2350
2550
2750
2950 No of Days
3150
3350
3550
Fig 7.5 Comparison of tail Portions of Duration Curves According the flow duration curve, it is clearly seen that tail portion of the flow duration curve during 1995 and 2004 is quite lower than the other two duration curves. That shows the same condition of the result from the percentile value, EFQ90 of each interval. It reflects the steeper recession due to impacts on low flow in the stream. Information on actual
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drought discharge of the area, 640 m /s could be found from the graph and its exceedance frequencies are shown in Table 7.3. Table 7.3 Exceedance Frequencies corresponding to actual drought discharge First 10 years 1975-1984 Drought Discharge 3 (m /s) 640 EFQm (%) 97 Second 10 years 1985-1994 Drought Discharge 3 (m /s) 640 EFQm (%) 98 Third 10 years 1995-2004 Drought Discharge 3 (m /s) 640 EFQm (%) 95
According to table 7.3, actual minimum requirement requires less percentile in the last period, meaning the value of low flow index decreases.
7.6
Flow Duration Curve for the Entire Study Period
For the wide use in water resource planning, flow duration curve for the whole study period, 1975-2004 is prepared and selected percentiles can be interpreted as low flow index.
Duration Curve (1975-2004) 100000
10000 Q (m3/s) 1000 100 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Fig 7.6 Flow Duration curve for entire Period (1975-2004) According to the above FDC, the critical depth for the river, 640 m /s is relevant to the EFQ97 and theoretical drought discharge EFQ90 is 757 m /s which is the low flow index of the stream by FDC analysis.
3 3
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Chapter 8. Recession Curve Analysis

8.1 Introduction
The gradual depletion of water stored in a catchment during periods with little or no precipitation is reflected in the shape of the recession curve, i.e. the falling limb of hydrograph. The duration of the decline is referred to as the recession period, and a recession segment is a selected part of the recession curve. The time resolution is commonly in the order of days. The stream hydrograph falling limb during the non-rainfall period is short in the temperate zone, so that it is difficult to evaluate appropriately low flow characteristics by using only one recession curve. Then the smooth curve constructed by linking the end part of the low flow hydrograph, which is generally called a master recession curve, is usually applied in order to evaluate the low flow characteristics. The recession curve describes in an integrated manner how different factors in the catchment influence the generation of flow in dry weather periods. It has therefore proved useful in many areas of water resources management; in low flow forecasting of gauged rivers, as an index of drainage rate in rainfall-runoff models, as an index of catchment storage in regional regression models, in hydrograph analysis for separation of different flow components and in frequency analysis for estimating lowflow indices. The flow recessions in the baseflow component of a runoff hydrograph is considered to describe the depletion of the groundwater reservoir. However baseflow is not the only outflow from the saturated zone of a catchment. Evapotranspiration flux by water consumption of vegetation or from river plains, capillary rise to vadose zone and groundwater abstractions will significantly influence the shape of flow recession curves ( Wittenberg). Flow recessions of rivers in most hydrological regimes show significant seasonal variation, falling slower in winter and faster during summer (Weisman, 1977; Tallaksen, 1995; Moore, 1997; Wittenberg and Sivapalan, 1999). The inter-seasonal difference is mainly attributed to evapotranspiration flux from the ground water and especially to seasonally varying water uptake by deep-rooted trees. Normally there are three seasons in Myanmar namely rainy season, winter and the summer. Almost all of continuous recessions of hydrograph without any disturbance are found in the later part of winter and earlier part of the summer. So according to situation it is a little bit difficult to extract the recessions in winter and summer. Only one recession for each year is usually picked up although it is known that recession properties can vary according to the seasonal variation.
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At present the countrys policy focus on the cultivation of second crop namely summer paddy. So major source of irrigation undoubtedly rely on the stream flow which has naturally emerged during the dry season. Recession flows of the rivers are not only low but also decreasing gradually. Consequently depleted flow at any moment of the growing season is required to know in advance so as to plan properly for the second crops. This section will find out the characteristics of master recession curves of every 10 years and patterns of low flow changes during the study period are checked. The result is believed to help the irrigation engineers in the field to enable forecasting the possible stream flows and condition of low flows at any period of the dry season.
8.2
Study Area and Data
In Myanmar, the irrigation department manages to measure the water levels or discharges regarding with the streams or rivers that are likely to be diverted or on which reservoirs are constructed. DMH measures large streams and rivers for the purposes of meteorological and hydrological forecast. On the other hand there is a lack of technical know-how or labor or budget to measure the flow data in order to make the hydrologic analysis for water resources planning and management or forecasting the flows on specific time during the dry season in which no one can measure the flow data. Understanding the low flow characteristics of the streams or rivers plays an important role especially for the irrigation and navigation purposes which are the critical factors and affect to the socio-economic conditions of the Chindwin river basin. Daily stream flows measured by the DMH were utilized for the analysis. Normally there is no specific restriction to define the water year in Myanmar and records are usually used according to calendar year. But here, daily stream flows are managed in water year for recession analysis so that recession effects after the rains could not be separated. Actual data length is 30 years which starts in 1975 and ends in 2004. But after separating the yearly record according to the water year, data length remains 29 years, starting in 1975 and ending in 2003. Here water year starts in the middle of June and ends in the mid June of coming year. .
8.3
Determination of Master Recession Curves
Several methods have developed to construct a master recession curve for a catchment from a set of shorter recessions. A major problem is the high variability encountered in the recession rate of individual segments, which represent different stages in the outflow process. In addition, seasonal variation in the recession rate adds to the variability. The master recession methods try to overcome the problem by constructing a mean recession
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curve. The most commonly used techniques are the matching strip and the correlation method. In the matching strip method (Toebes & Strang 1964) individual segments are plotted and adjusted horizontally until they overlap. The master recession is then constructed as the mean line by best eye fit through the set of common lines. The method permits a visual control of irregularities in the recession curve, but as it is based on a subjective fit it might telescope or contract the true recession. In the correlation method (Langbein, 1938) the discharge at one time interval is plotted against the discharge one time interval later and a curve fitted to the data points. If the recession rate follows an exponential decay, a straight line results and the slope of the line equals to the recession parameter k. Several recession parameters can be calculated from the set of recession segments. It is therefore necessary to combine the information contained in the recession behavior of the individual segments to be able to identify and parameterize the characteristics recession behavior of the catchment. This can be done by constructing a master recession curve, or by obtaining averages vales of the recession parameters from the set of individual recession segments. If it is assumed that there are n segments, one from each recession period, then the j recession parameters can be obtained either from the master recession curve or for each of the n segments. In the latter case a mean value can be calculated to represent average catchment conditions. .
8.3.1
Master Recession Curves for every 10-year Period
The recession limb of the discharge hydrograph if no recharge is taking place is termed as the recession curve. This curve represents the diminishing discharge from storage, and that component consists of surface flow, interflow and base flow. Barnes defined the base flow as the discharge into the stream system from storage in the ground at or below the ground level. An individual recession limb in the temperate zone is a short term event. Thus, in the temperate zone, in order to assess low flow characteristics in a catchment, it is necessary to combine an individual recession limb during the period of record. Here three master recession curves, for the period of 1975-84, 1985-94 and 1995-03, are drawn first to examine the conditions of the changes of recession patterns during the recorded length of 29 years. The curve which can be constructed by combining the individual yearly recession limb is termed the master recession curve.
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8.3.1.1 Determination of Recession Constant by Simple Averaging 8.3.1.1.1 Linear Storage

Firstly recession constant (k) of each year are determined by using the relation Qt = Qo exp(-kt) which is liner storage equation. It is suitable for groundwater storage contribution and has been applied for the most lowest parts of the falling limbs of each hydrograph. Firstly the relation Qt = Qo exp(-t/k) is transformed into simple form y = a + b.x. Here y is lnQ0, a is lnQt, x= t and b=(y-a)/x. Then recession constant, k is equal to 1/b in days. Q is in m /s, t and k are in days. Recession constants for each period are then drawn in decreasing order and master recession curve constants for each period are determined from the best fit line of calculated recession constants of each period as shown in Fig 8.1, 8.2 and 8.3. This value obtained from this way is almost same as the arithmetic average of the recession constants. Master recession curves (MRC) for the proposed three periods were drawn using average recession constants and shown in Fig 8.4. The calculated k values and average k for each period are shown in table 8.1 and table 8.2. Table 8.1 Recession constants for each Year (linear) Year 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 K (days) 128.383 149.56 194.503 160.742 164.022 182.728 133.402 169.251 133.957 148.286 Year 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 K (days) 166.746 121.049 131.705 127.977 125.626 134.016 132.914 187.322 199.294 150.98 Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 K (days) 155.041 102.149 146.485 114.649 106.859 104.295 96.6784 109.341 123.38
3
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250 Recession Constant, k y = -7.1226x + 195.66 200 150 100 50 0 0 2 4 6 No of k 8 10 12
Fig 8.1 Recession constants for the period of 1975-1984
250 Recession Constant, k 200 150 100 50 0 0 2 4 6 No of k 8 10 12 y = -8.4173x + 194.06
180 Recession Constant, k 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 2 4 No of k 6 8 10 y = -6.8736x + 152.02

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Table 8.2 Average Recession Constants by Linear Storage Period 1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2003 Average K (days) 156.4815 147.7628 117.653 Linear Reservoir Equation Qt = Q0.exp(-t/156.48) Qt = Q0.exp(-t/147.76) Qt = Q0.exp(-t/117.65)
Master Recession Curves (Linear) 1400 1200 1000 Discharge (m3/s) 800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Time Step (day)
M RC(75-84) M RC(85-94) M RC(95-03)
Fig 8.4 Master Recession Curves (Linear Storage) using arithmetic mean of K
8.3.1.1.2
Non-Linear Storage
The recession of non linear reservoir is described by Qt = Qo [1 +
(1 b)Qo ab
1b
]1 /(b1) .
Taking 0.5 as the value b, the factor a is determined for each recorded year. Then average values for each 10-year interval are determined.
Table 8.3 Factor a of Nonlinear Storage Year 1975 1976 1977 a (m

3-3b b
s )
Year 1985 1986 1987

71
a (m
3-3b b
s )
Year 1995 1996 1997
a (m
3-3b b
s )
8982.635 9527.531 11768.06
9152.384 8099.347 7600.866
8384.035 5526.07 9735.731
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1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
8800.729 9946.61 12789.63 8161.268 9609.714 7257.283 8483.052
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
8018.535 8615.39 8513.39 10413.7 12465.39 11343.65 9193.001
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
7300.286 7038.592 7419.669 7106.65 7937.687 7359.071
Table 8.4 Average factor a of Nonlinear Storage Period 1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2003 Average a (m
3-3b b
Average a (mm1-bdb) 32.43 31.78 25.63
s)
Non-Linear Storage Equation
9532.651 9341.616 7534.199
Qt = Qo Qt = Qo Qt = Qo
0.5Qo t 9532.651 * 0.5 0.5 0.5Qo [1 + t 9341.616 * 0.5
[1 +
0.5
]2 ]2
]2
[1 + 0.5Qo t 7534.199 * 0.5
0.5
Master Recession Curves (Non Linear)

1400 1200 1000
M RC(75-84)
Discharge (m3/s)
800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
M RC(85-94)
M RC(95-03)
Time Step(days)
Fig 8.5 Master Recession Curves (Non-linear Storage) using arithmetic mean of a
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8.3.1.1.3
Verification of Master Recession Curves
The master recession flow curves obtained above are verified with the selected years whose k values are a little bit close to the average ones of each period.
Observed and Calculated Recessions (1975-1984) 1600 1400 Discharge (m3/s) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Time Step (day)
Observed (76) Linear No nlinear
Fig 8.6 Verification MRC by simple arithmetic Mean (1975-1984)
Observed and Calculated Recessions (1985-1994) 1020 1000 980 Discharge (m3/s) 960 940 920 900 880 860 840 0 5 10 15 Time Step (day) 20 25 30
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Observed and Calculated Recessions (1995-2003) 2000 1800 1600 Discharge (m3/s) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 10 20 30 Time Step (day) 40 50 60
According to the result fitted by above method is quite different from the observed ones because this is just an approximation of average k value for MRC and was the first trial of approach to define the master recession constant. It is clearly seen that this simple average value of k does not provide the reasonable result and fit well to the observed data.
8.3.1.2 Determination of Average K fitted by Matching Strip Method

In this section the matching strip method is applied to position the integrated recession portions of the specific duration. First recession parts of each hydrograph having the smallest values of discharge are plotted. Using the recession curve with the next smallest values, the curves are positioned such that it appears to extend a long a line coincident with the recession of the first event plotted. This process is continued using successively larger magnitude recessions until all storm events are plotted. Then master depletion curve that comes from the average values of storm event with every time step and extend through the recessions of the observed storm events was constructed. In the positioning of last 10-year interval, year 1995 and 1996 were omitted as their recession portions have many disturbances and they are difficult to be fitted. Here three master recession curves for each 10-year interval are prepared using above method as shown in Fig 8.9, 8.10 and 8.11. Finally the obtained master recession curves are fitted both by linear and non-linear storage equations.
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1600
1 978
1400 1200 Discharge (m3/s) 1000 800
1 983 1 982 1 984 1 979 1 981
600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 Time Step (day) 100 120 140 160
1 977 1 976 1 980 1 975
Fig 8.9 Positioning of recession curves (1975-1984)
2000 1800 1600 Discharge (m3/s) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Time Step(day)
1 985 1 987 1 993 1 994 1 986 1 988 1 990 1 989 1 992 1 991
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2000 1800 1600

2003 1 995 2000 1 996 1 998 2002 1 999 1 997 2001
discharge (m3/s)
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Time Step (day)
8.3.1.2.1
Linear Storage
The linear storage model is given by S = k.Q, where S is storage, Q is discharge and k is in time unit. This assumption is approximately applicable in the nature e.g. Groundwater or Retention of the catchment. The hydrograph of the linear storage is expressed by the exponential function: Qt = Qo. exp (-t/k) where k is recession constant in days. Master recession constants for each 10-year interval are calculated using linear relation and then master recession curves for each interval are prepared using calculated recession constants.
Table 8.5 Master Recession Constants by Linear Storage Period 1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2003 Master Recession Constant. K (days) 157.949 134.202 113.3361 Linear Reservoir Equation Qt = Q0.exp (-t/157.949) Qt = Q0.exp (-t/134.202) Qt = Q0.exp (-t/113.3361)
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1400 1200 Discharge (m3/s) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 Time Step (day) 80 100
!9751 984
1 9851 994
1 9952003
Fig 8.12 Master Recession Curves (Linear)
8.3.1.2.2
Non-Linear Storage
The conventional exponential function of the linear reservoir (Maillet, 1905) is still widely used to describe flow recession. However, the analysis of observed flow recession of rivers shows that the value of the reservoir constant or recession constant is not constant, but increasing generally with falling flow (e.g. Wittenberg, 1994; Moore, 1997). Consequently , a non linear storage-outflow relationship ( Schoeller, 1962; Wittenberg, 1994) is applied in all case studies for the upper aquifers involved in the annual water cycle: S = a Q where S is storage, a and b are factors. And the recession of non linear reservoir is described by Qt = Qo [1 +
b
(1 b)Qo ab
1b
]1 /(b1) .
The factor a for each 10-year interval were calculated using above non linear relation taking the factor b 0.5 and then master recession curves for each interval were prepared using calculated recession constants.
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Table 8.6 Master Recession Constants by Nonlinear Storage Period Factor a (m

3-3b b
Factor a (mm1-bdb) 32.27
s )
Nonlinear Reservoir Equation
1975-1984
9485.87
Qt = Qo
[1 +
0.5Qo t 9485.87 * 0.5

0.5
0.5
]2
1985-1994
8694.58
29.58
Qt = Qo
[1 + 0.5Qo t 8694.58 * 0.5 [1 +

0.5Qo t 7322.08 * 0.5
0.5
]2 ]2
1995-2003
7322.08
24.91
Qt = Qo
1400 1200 Discharge (m3/s) 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 20 40 60 Time Step (day) 80 100
1 9952003 !9751 984
1 9851 994
Fig 8.13 Master Recession Curves (Nonlinear)
8.3.1.2.3
Verification of Master Recession Curves
The master recession flow curves theoretically obtained above are verified with the corresponding observed master recession curves which represent the average value of each time step from the observed data of the years selected for different periods.
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Observed and Calculated Recessions (1975-1984)

1600 1400 Discharge (m3/s) 1200 1000 800 600 400 0 20 40 60 80 Time Step (day) 100 120 140 160
Observed (75-84) Linear
No nLinear
Fig 8.14 Verification of MRC by positioning of integrated Recessions (1975-1984)

2000 1800 1600 Discharge (m3/s) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Time Step (day)
No nLinear
Fig 8.15 Verification of MRC by positioning of integrated Recessions (1985-1994)
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2000 1800 1600 Discharge (m3/s) 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Time Step (day)
No nLinear
Fig 8.16 Verification of MRC by positioning of integrated Recessions (1995-2003) By comparing the observed master recession curves with the calculated ones given by both linear and nonlinear reservoir equations, it is found that nonlinear reservoir provides the best fit result to the observed storm events and it is more likely close to the actual groundwater contribution in nature. Ground water flow and hence stream flow in rivers appears more related to storage properties and subsurface hydraulics rather than to concentration times and pathway of the surface watershed (Wittenberg).
8.3.2
Evaluation of Master Recession Curves
No matter how both storage equations fit to the observed value, the dominant change of recession curves pattern can be clearly found that flow recessions decreased gradually according to the time. It is evident that parameter k and a fitted to different discharge ranges of the recession curves do not remain constant but decrease systematically with the decrease of stream flow with respect to the different time interval in the study period. Then according the condition of master recession curves, it can be easily seen that ground water contribution of the Chindwin Basin is gradually decreased with the time since 1984 and rapidly dropped during last interval between 1995 and 2003. So it is very dominant that low flow recession characteristic of the last period (1995-2003) is the lowest during the recorded data length. It is likely to be suffered much by a big impact of water resources or seasonal variations during this interval. In this section, only the change of the low flow
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patterns in terms of ground water contribution is mainly focused rather than to predict the exact MRC constant as precise as possible. Variability as well as less reliability of the result could be remarked as the followings: (a) If the stream flow is gauged carefully and consistently with the standard form and the regime of the above the gauging station is not disturbed, then the result could be found more reliable. (b) The method applied to determine the MRC constant is based on just taking the recessions of each year by seeing the hydrograph without making base flow separation to define the actual turning points. (c) Collected data length is not so much and determination of the MRC constant is applied only for each 10-year interval as well.
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Chapter 9. Low Flow Frequency Analysis

9.1 Introduction
For water resource management and planning it is of vital importance to asses how likely or probable it is that an extremely hydrological event may occur. Frequency analysis is one of the most common and earliest applications of statistics within hydrology. It involves (a) definition of the hydrological event and extreme characteristics to be studied, (b) selection of the extreme events and probability distribution to describe the data, (c) estimation of the parameters of the distribution, and (d) estimation of extreme events or design values for a given problem. The procedure is straightforward, but the uncertainty of the estimated extreme values depends strongly on the sample size and the basic assumptions of the model adopted. Hydrological time series typically range between 20 and 50 years, and thus hydrological design often requires extrapolation beyond the range of observations. One of the main purpose frequency analyses is to find the most suitable probability distribution to describe the data in question. In the study of hydrologic drought, different techniques have to be adopted for study of surface water deficit and ground water deficit. The surface water aspect of drought studies is essentially related to the stream flow. The objective of low flow frequency analysis of Chindwin river is to investigate the characteristic of low flows and to predict the expected low flow occurrences with the different return periods using different probability distributions. In this chapter, firstly plotting of average annual minimum flows such as NM1Q, NM7Q, NM14Q and NM30Q with empirical return periods is carried out for the whole recorded period namely 30 years. And frequency curves are drawn and analyzed for different time reaches such as 15-year and 10-year periods to study the condition of low flow in each interval. Finally the plotting position of 7-d low flow frequency curve is fitted by distribution functions and the best fit one is derived using method of least square which provides least standard errors of the selected distributions. Then expected low flows are estimated using different distribution functions. A flow index, such as the 7Q10 flow can be interpreted as the 7-day low flow with a 10-year return period, using daily discharge data.
9.2
Study Area and Data
In the country low flow frequency analysis is somehow left to take account into consideration while some hydrologic studies regarding to the flood in Chindwin river are mostly carried out. So low flow frequency analysis of Chindwin river at Monywa station is
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focused in this section. Daily stream flows (m /s) from Monywa station are firstly collected and managed. Then average minima series are used for the study. For low flow frequency analysis, average annual 7-day minimum flows (NM7Q) are used rather than 1-day minimum flows (NM1Q) in order to avoid the possible errors.
9.3
Mean Annual Minimum Flow
One of the most frequently applied low flow indices is derived from a series of the annual minima of the n-day average flow. In its simplest form this would be the mean annual 1-day flow, hence the average of the annual minimum value. For n>1, the method consists of deriving a hydrograph whose values are not simply daily flows but are average flows over the previous n-days or alternatively the previous n/2 days and the coming n/2 days. The derived data can thus be regarded as the outcome of passing a moving average filter of nday duration through the daily data. Here mean annual minimum discharges such as 1day, 7-day, 14-day and 30-day are derived and listed in Table 9.1.
9.4
Plotting Position of Average Low Flows
The different minimum average flows, such as 1-day, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, are determined using moving average method in Excel and arranged in decreasing order for different return periods T = (n+1)/(n+1-m) with the largest sample magnitude with m=1 and the smallest sample magnitude with m=n (H. Wittenberg). Table 9.1 Average minimum flows (m /s) arranged in decreasing order Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 NM1Q 1039 981 907 895 852 798 790 783 744 736 723 711 684 672 672 660 654 NM7Q 1047 998.7 913.1 905 865.7 800.6 795.7 788.6 774.4 768.4 759.7 715.6 689.9 685.3 676.4 673.3 669.4 NM14Q 1082 1022 927.2 925.4 884 827.9 811.6 803 799.4 790.7 785.1 728.4 720.4 701.7 687.7 687.5 684.9 NM30Q 1146 1085 982.4 981.6 914.7 868.1 843.8 840.3 816.4 809.3 802.9 784.8 763.3 738.1 731.2 716.4 716.1 Return Period, T (Year) 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.19 1.24 1.29 1.35 1.41 1.48 1.55 1.63 1.72 1.82 1.94 2.07 2.21 Log T 0.014 0.029 0.044 0.06 0.076 0.093 0.111 0.13 0.149 0.169 0.19 0.213 0.236 0.261 0.287 0.315 0.345
3
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
650 646 632 617 613 610 608 601 591 530 512 480 440
668.6 658.1 654.6 636.3 622.3 614.1 612.6 608.4 595.6 539.3 535.3 500.9 463.3
682.5 676.6 657.9 650.1 629.7 626.2 624.6 621.8 613.8 565.8 550.4 515.8 484.8
693.1 691.7 669.7 667.3 654.1 652.9 652 637.2 631.2 605.5 591.1 565.7 542.4
2.38 2.58 2.82 3.10 3.44 3.88 4.43 5.17 6.20 7.75 10.33 15.50 31.00
0.377 0.412 0.45 0.491 0.537 0.588 0.646 0.713 0.792 0.889 1.014 1.19 1.491
Low flow analysis w ith em perical T Chindw in river at Monyw a station (1975-2004) 1200 Average annual low flow Q(m3/s)
900
NM 1Q
NM 7Q
600
NM 14Q
NM 30Q
300
0 1.00
10.00 Return period T (year)
100.00
Fig 9.1 Low flow analysis with empirical return periods
9.4.1
Frequency Curves of 15-Year Time Reaches
Here two frequency curves of NM7Q are developed for first 15-year reach and second 15year reach of the collected data series which have the data length of 30 year, from 1975 to 2004 so that low flow patterns during these periods are examined. First 15-year reach, from 1975 to 1989, and second 15-year reach, from 1990 to 2004, are separately drawn and analyzed. Annual minimum low flow data for first 15-year reach are arranged in decreasing order and corresponding return periods are calculated. Table 9.2 shows the low flows and their return periods in the first half of the data length.
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Table 9.2 Annual average low flow (m /s)and return period in the first 15-year reach Rank (m) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NM7Q 905 800.6 795.7 788.6 759.7 715.6 676.4 669.4 T (Year) 1.067 1.143 1.231 1.333 1.455 1.6 1.778 2 Log T 0.028 0,058 0.09 0.125 0.163 0.204 0.25 0.301 Rank (m) 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 NM7Q 668.6 654.6 622.3 614.1 608.4 595.6 539.3 T (Year) 2.286 2.667 3.2 4 5.333 8 16 Log T 0.359 0.426 0.505 0.602 0.727 0.903 1.204
Then annual minimum low flow data for the second 15-year reach are arranged in decreasing order and respective return periods are calculated. Table (9.3 ) shows the low flows and their return periods in the second half of the data length. Table 9.3 Annual average low flow (m /s)and return period in the second 15-year reach Rank m 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NM7Q 1047 998.7 913.1 865.7 774.4 768.4 689.9 685.3 T (Year) 1.067 1.143 1.231 1.333 1.455 1.6 1.778 2 Log T 0.028 0.058 0.09 0.125 0.163 0.204 0.25 0.301 Rank m 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 NM7Q 673.3 658.1 636.3 612.6 535.3 500.9 463.3 T (Year) 2.286 2.667 3.2 4 5.333 8 16 Log T 0.359 0.426 0.505 0.602 0.727 0.903 1.204
3
After that, plotting of these data for two time reaches are drawn and analyzed to see the changes of low flow condition which might have suffered by the environmental impact in the basin area. Plotting positions for both time reaches are shown in Fig 9.2.
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Low Flow Frequency Curves for ach 15-year Period

1200
1000
800 NM7Q (m3/s)
NM 7Q (75-89)
600
NM 7Q (90-04)
400
200
0 1 10 Return Period T (Year) 100
Fig 9.2 Low Flow Frequency Curves for first and second half of the Data Length According to the graph, low flows in the second 15-year period are more likely to decrease with return periods especially after the return period of 4-year.
9.4.2
Frequency Curves of 10-Year Time Reaches
Apart from the analysis in section 9.4.1, frequency curves of NM7Q for 10-year interval are prepared to have a clearer picture of the changes of low flows. Data length of 30 years was divided into three portions namely first interval (1975-1984), second interval (1985-1994) and third one (1995-2004). Then annual NM7Qs are arranged in decreasing order and corresponding return periods are determined by using plotting position. Drought discharges, 7Q10, are also determined as the low flow indices to be compared. Table 9.4 Annual average low flows (m /s)and return periods in the first 10-year reach Rank (m) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NM7Q 905 800.6 795.7 759.7 715.6 676.4 668.6 654.6 608.4 539.3 Return Period, T (Year) 1.1 1.222 1.375 1.571 1.833 2.2 2.75 3.667 5.5 11 Log T 0.041 0.087 0.138 0.196 0.263 0.342 0.439 0.564 0.74 1.041
3
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Table 9.5 Annual average low flows (m /s)and return periods in the second 10-year reach Rank (m) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NM7Q 1047 998.7 913.1 865.7 788.6 669.4 658.1 622.3 614.1 595.6 Return Period, T (Year) 1.1 1.222 1.375 1.571 1.833 2.2 2.75 3.667 5.5 11 Log T 0.041 0.087 0.138 0.196 0.263 0.342 0.439 0.564 0.74 1.041
Table 9.6 Annual average low flows (m /s)and return periods in the third 10-year reach Rank (m) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 NM7Q 774.4 768.4 689.9 685.3 673.3 636.3 612.6 535.3 500.9 463.3 Return Period, T (Year) 1.1 1.222 1.375 1.571 1.833 2.2 2.75 3.667 5.5 11 Log T 0.041 0.087 0.138 0.196 0.263 0.342 0.439 0.564 0.74 1.041
Table 9.7 Drought Discharge (7Q10) for each Period Period 7Q10 (m /s)
3
1975-1984 551.86
1985-1994 598.96
1995-2004 470.14
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Low Flow Frequency Curves for ach 10-year Period 1200 1000 NM7Q (m3/s) 800 600 400 200 0 1 10 Return Period (Year) 100
NM 7Q (75-84) NM 7Q (85-94) NM 7Q (95-04)
Fig 9.3 Low Flow Frequency Curves for each 10-year period of the Data Length Drought discharge (7Q10) values and the pattern of curves provide clearer picture and indicated the same low flow characteristic like other analysis showing the tendency of low flow occurrence is the highest in the last period.
9.5
Fitting of Low Flow Frequency Curve by Distribution Functions
Low flow frequency curves may be fitted mathematically by assuming a theoretical frequency distribution of the data. Here curve fitting is carried out only for Low flow frequency curve (NM7Q) of the whole period, 30 years, obtained from plotting position. Statistical parameters of the NM7Q series are shown below. Mean Standard Deviation Skewness = 707.8733 m /s = 139.4771 m /s = 0.646802
3 3
Frequency factor method for low flow analysis is X = X - K. ( H. Wittenberg) Where X = Minimum flow
X = Mean of the data series

K = frequency factor = Skewness coefficient According to Kite (1970), three distributions are suitable for the analysis of minimum events such as low flows. They are: (i) Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution (ii) Pearson Type III Distribution
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(iii) Extreme Value Type III Though all three functions are suitable, the results can show considerable differences. Thus it is strictly recommended to calculate with all three functions.
9.5.1
Three-Parameter Lognormal Distribution
Here frequency factor for 3-Parameter Lognormal distribution can be calculated by following equation.
exp ln(1 + z 2 ) K=
2
1/ 2
.t ln(1 + z 2 ) / 2 1.0 z2
2
Z2 =
1 2 / 3 1/ 3
1 + ( 1 + 4)1/ 2 2
1 is the coefficient of skew. Frequency factors for 3-Parameter Lognormal distribution are shown in Appendix-D. Note that at 1=0 the frequency factor k is zero for all return periods. The 3-Parameter Lognormal is thus not a suitable distribution for use with data samples having skews approaching zero. Then the expected low flows are calculated using frequency factor methods. The results obtained by the distribution are given in table 9.8. Table 9.8 Expected Low Flows given by 3-Parameter Lognormal Distribution Return Period (Year) k Discharge (m3/s) 2 -0.0231 698.25 5 0.55362 624.505 10 0.90383 583.597 20 1.18127 553.106 50 1.50166 519.865 100 1.72015 498.354
Chindwin River at Monya Station
9.5.2
Pearson Type III Distribution
To find the frequency factor K for different values of skewness coefficient, compute the value of W = [ln T2]1/2 where T = 1/P
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Y=W (2.5255+0.80285.W+0.01033.W ) / (1+1.14328.W+0.1893.W +0.00131.W ) K = Y+(Y -1). /6 +1/3(Y -6Y).3 /36 -(y -1). /216 +y. ( /6) +1/3. ( /6) where is skewness coefficient of the sample. The Frequency factor values for Pearson type III are shown in Appendix-D. Then the minimum flows with different return periods are given in table 9.9. Table 9.9 Expected Low Flows given by Pearson Type III Distribution Return Period (Year) k Discharge (m3/s) 1.01 -1.815 961.01 2 -0.114 723.76 5 0.7912 597.51 10 1.3324 522.03 20 1.8163 454.53 50 2.4012 372.95 100 2.815 315.14
2 3 2 2 3 4 5
Chindwin River at Monya Station
9.5.3
Extreme Value Type III Distribution
Droughts are analyzed by the asymptotic theory of smallest values of a limited statistical variate. The theory of extreme value is also an appropriate tool for the analysis of droughts which are defined as the annual minima of low flows. Shaw (1994) demonstrated that the extreme value type III distribution of the smallest value is one of the most reliable and it is recommended for the assessment of the frequency of annual minimum flows. Frequency factor for EV III distribution is given by K = A+B [ { -ln (1-1/T) }
2 1/
-1 ] and
-1/2
B = { (1+2/) - (1+1/ ) } A = { 1- (1+1/ ) } B
A and B are the function of Gamma and the Gamma function is given by Appendix-D. Parameter , A and B for EV III distribution tabulated as a function of the sample coefficient of skewness and frequency factors for different skewness are given in Appendix-D. The calculated minimum flow data by EV III distribution are given in table 9.10. Table 9.10 Expected Low Flows given by Extreme Value Type III Distribution Chindwin River at Monya Station Return Period (Year) k Discharge (m3/s) 2 -0.1252 690.415 5 -0.8923 583.417 10 -1.2015 540.285 20 -1.4042 512.024 50 -1.5758 488.084 100 -1.6598 476.363
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Graphical display of the results obtained by three distribution functions is also useful to see approximately the best fit function and to judge the patterns of the frequency curves.
Pearson
1200
EV III
Lognormal
Observed
1000
800 Q (m3/s)
600
400
200
0 1 10 Return Period ( Yr ) 100
Fig 9.4 Fitting of Low Flow Frequency Curve by three distribution functions
9.5.4
Selection of Distribution Function
Relatively short return periods that do not greatly exceed the length of hydrological records have often been sufficient in low flow design. This has led to a rather unrestricted use of various distributions. Such an approach may give acceptable results if a prediction of drought indices with a low return period is required. The estimates of events with higher return periods will, however, always depend on the behavior of the tail of the fitted distribution. The more parameters a distribution has, the better it will adapt to the data sample, but the lower reliability of the estimate of the parameters will be. It is generally recommended that the distribution has no more than three parameters ( Matalas, 1963 ). Different goodness-of-fit test can be used for selection of a proper distribution functions.
9.5.5
Test for Goodness of Fit
In the previous portions of this chapter attempts are made to fit a number of frequency functions to each of the distribution of a sample of hydrological data. The question asked and left without answer at the end of each attempt is whether the fit has been satisfactory or not. The answer to this question is obtained by performing a test of goodness of fit which
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is a mean of judging the credibility of a hypothesis concerning the population from which the individuals of a sample are drawn. Graphical methods are an efficient way to judge whether the fitted distribution appears consistent with the data. The plots can be judged merely by visual inspection, or statistical tests such as analytical goodness-of- fit criteria can be used to estimate whether a departure, i.e. the difference between the ordered observations and the estimated quantile from a theoretical distribution function, is statistically significant. Several measures are available. Here least squares (Standard error) test is performed for the selection distribution functions used in the previous analysis.
9.5.5.1 Method of Least Squares

This method is to compare the standard errors of each distribution by computing the sum of squares of the differences between calculated and observed discharge. According to Kite, it is recommended that return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-years are enough to check for low flows. The standard error is given by
SEj =
(X
i=1
Yi ) 2
n mj
]1/2
Where Xi = recorded events Yi = event magnitudes computed from jth probability distribution n = number of events mj = number of parameters estimated for the jth distribution. Here n is 6 ( six events at return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-year) and the mj is the 3 as the parameters estimated for the distributions are mean, standard deviation and the skewness. The results are given in the table 9.11.
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Table 9.11 Standard errors of selected distributions for different return periods Return Period (Year) 2 5 10 20 50 100 Observed Value, Yi LN(3) 698.25 624.505 583.597 553.106 519.865 498.354 Pearson III 723.768 597.519 522.034 454.533 372.957 315.147 EV III 690.415 583.417 540.285 512.024 480.084 476.363 Recorded Value,Xi 674.97 609.36 535.81 489.98 417.21 295.92 Sum Standard Error Difference (Xi - Yi)2 LN(3) 541.9584 229.371 2283.597 3984.892 10538.05 40979.52 58557.39 139.7109
3
Pearson III 2381.24 140.209 189.778 1256.49 1958.33 369.678 6295.73 45.8102
EV III 238.557 673.039 20.0256 485.938 3953.14 32559.7 37930.4 112.443
(Units of both observed and recorded values are in m /s.) According the ranking of the distributions by order of least standard error, Pearson type III distribution provides the best fitting of distribution for the recorded data and the 3parameter lognormal distribution is the least fitted one.
9.5.6
Result of Expected Low Flows by best fitted Distribution
According to the test for goodness of fit, Pearson type III is the best fit for the collected data set and the low flow values given by this distribution will be used for future water resource planning and management. Table 9.12 Expected Low flows given by best fitted distribution (Pearson III) Chindwin River at Monya Station Return Period (Year) k Discharge (m3/s) 1.01 -1.815 961.01 2 -0.114 723.77 5 0.7912 597.52 10 1.3324 522.03 20 1.8163 454.53 50 2.4012 372.96 100 2.8157 315.15
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Low Flow Frequency Curve of Chindwin River by Pearson III

1200 1000 Discharge (m3/s) 800
640 600 522

400 200 0 1
3.7
10 Return Period (year)
100
Fig 9.5 Low Flow Frequency Curve of Chindwin River by Pearson III Chindwin river has a critical water level of 1m providing 640 m /s at which navigation is impossible. According to the low flow frequency curve of Chindwin river, critical minimum discharge 640 m /s will occur once four years. Theoretically recommended drought discharge, 7Q10 for the stream is found to be 522 m /s. Minimum requirement for navigation in the Chindwin river at Monywa station is higher than the theoretical drought discharge during the period of the study.
3 3 3
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Chapter 10. Miscellaneous Approaches

10.1 Introduction
In the previous chapters the focus was on the low flow analysis based on the collected daily discharge series. And some results have come out to see the low flow characteristics of the Chindwin river basin especially at the Monywa gauging station. Besides it would be more preferable to detect the possible influences on low flows in the river as much as possible with the available information such as annual rainfall, mean annual temperature and irrigation development in the study area which are probably relevant to the results obtained by the previous analyses. Finally the relation between the low flow indices and the changes of the condition in the area during the study period can be closely discussed and evaluated.
10.2
Mass Curve Analysis
Cumulative annual data series are plotted against the time to see the trend of the curve through which the changes of low flow patterns can be traced. Here three mass curves are drawn for annual low flow and annual maximum flow and flow volume.
25000
Cumulative MinQ (m3/s)
20000
S2=646
15000
10000
S1=708.06
5000
0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fig 10.1 Mass Curve of Cumulative Min Q
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700000 600000 Cumulative Max Q (m3/s) 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fig 10.2 Mass Curve of Cumulative Max Q
5000 4500 Cumulative Volume (m3.10 )

9
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010
Fig 10.3 Mass Curve of Cumulative Flow Volume
According the graphical presentation, it showed that mass curves of annual maximum and flow volume indicated that there is almost no inconsistency of the data. But mass curve of annual low flow series reflected that there was a change of trend after 1992 during the entire study period. Especially in the later part of the study period, the possibility of lower flows become strong as the slope of the curve deviates lower than the trend after 1992.
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10.3
Impacts on Low Flow
10.3.1 Impact of Climate Change

In many regions climate change affects precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration having an effect on meteorological drought. There is a strong interrelation between climate and the hydrological system. A change in one of the systems will therefore induce a change in the other (Kundzewicz, 2002). Understanding the link between the past and current droughts and climate and atmospheric circulation is therefore not only a perquisite to understanding past drought characteristics and predicting the next drought, it is similarly important for the assessment of the impact of climate change on the characteristic of drought.
2800 2600 2400 Rainfall (mm) 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010
A nnual Rainfall A verage
Fig 10.4 Mean Annual Rainfall in Chindwin Basin

29.5 29 Temperature (C) 28.5 28 27.5 27 26.5 26 25.5 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005 2010
M ean A nnual Temp A verage
Fig 10.5 Mean Annual Temperature of Chindwin Basin (Monywa Station)
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Annual rainfall and mean annual temperature are analyzed to see some relations with the low flow occurrence in the region. Annual rainfall is the average of the seven rainfall stations in the basin and mean annual temperature represents only Monywa station. Their properties are checked with the standard deviation values.
Table 10.1 Standard deviation (Std.Dev.) Values of Collected Meteorological Data Data Type Std. Dev. of Annual Rainfall (mm) Std. Dev. of Mean Annual Temperature (C) Period 1975-1984 149.3 0.440 1985-1994 237.0 0.604 1995-2005 155.1 0.573
Thus collected meteorological data is found to have the smallest variation in the period of 1975-1984 and highest variation in the middle one, 1984-1995. Annual rainfall and mean annual temperature data are then plotted accompanying with the annual average low flow data (NM7Q). Also moving average data of annual rainfall series are plotted. Here annual low flow data are picked up and the average low flows are calculated according to the calendar year and all annual low flows occur in the later part of the summer which is normally between March and May. So annual low flow of a year is the effect of climate in the previous year. Thats why annual low flow data are plotted one year backward to have a more correlation with meteorological condition of the area.
3000 2500 Rainfall (mm) 2000
1500 1200 900 NM7Q (m3/s)

Annual Rainf all 7-Year Average NM 7Q
1500 600 1000 500 0 1970 300 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005
Fig 10.6 Annual Rainfall and Annual Average Low Flow (NM7Q)
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1200 NM7Q Temp
30 29.5 29 Mean Annual Temperature (C)
1000 Annual Low flow (m3/s))
800
28.5 28
600 27.5 400 27 26.5 200 26 0 1970 25.5 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year 1995 2000 2005
Fig 10.7 Mean Annual Temperature and Annual Average Low Flow (NM7Q)
Here the pictures indicates that less low flows usually occurred during the time of high temperature and less rainfall whereas the high low flows usually happen when temperature decreased and rainfall increased. Interrelation between the annual low flows and meteorological condition of the region is expressed by the correlation coefficients.
Table 10.2 Correlation Coefficient Matrix Rainfall Rainfall Temperature 1.0 -0.681 Temperature -0.681 1.0 NM7Q 0.655 -0.763
Annual rainfall data is moderately related with mean annual temperature and annual low flows whereas mean annual temperature is a little bit strongly related with annual low flows. Here correlation coefficients are determined based on the moving average (7-year) data rather than yearly data. Then recession portions for each year are picked up and also checked. It is found that they usually occur in the period which is normally between the month of December and March. Mean monthly temperatures of these periods in which most recessions occurred are determined for each 10-year interval and displayed in Fig 10.8
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26 Mean Monthly Temperature in Recession Periods (C)
25
24
1 9751 984 1 9851 994 1 9952004
23
22
21
20 0 2 4 6 Tim e Step (year) 8 10 12
Fig 10.8 Mean monthly Temperature of Recession Periods

25 Mean Monthly Temperature (C)
24
23
22 1975-1984 1985-1994 Tim e Interval 1995-2004
Fig 10.9 Mean Temperatures of Recession Periods in every 10-year Interval
Mean monthly temperatures of yearly recession portions in the last period (1995-2004) are clearly higher than that of other two periods although it is a little bit difficult to say the higher one between the periods of 1975-1984 and 1985-1994. Then mean monthly temperatures of the whole periods in which the recessions occurred were checked and shown in Fig 10.9. Mean temperatures of the first 10-year recession period (1975-1984) and second 10year period (1985-1994) are nearly the same and the mean temperature of the last 10-year recession period (1995-2004) is the highest one. Above observations reflect the impact of climate change on low flow conditions in the stream especially in the last 10-year interval of the study period.
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Moreover trend of climate change in the neighboring regions are checked to see whether the climate change in the study area is related to regional change or not. Here mean annual temperatures of Yangon (the capital of Myanmar), Bangkok (the capital of Thailand) and New Deli (the capital of India) are analyzed.
32 Mean Annual Temperature (C) 30 Yangon 28 26 24 22 20 1994 New Deli Bangkok Chindw in
1996
1998
2000 Year
2002
2004
2006
Fig 10.10 Comparison of Regional Mean Annual Temperatures
The trend of temperature change in Chindwin basin is similar to that of neighboring area, especially quite similar to the trend of Yangon station. Correlation coefficient between Chindwin basin and Yangon shows 0.8 which is meant that there has a somehow strong relation. The trend of temperature change in study area is moderately related with that of Bangkok due to the correlation coefficient, 0.54. It is found that there is a least relation between the study area and New Deli because of the correlation coefficient, 0.14. It may happen due to high variation of mean annual temperature in New Deli. But it can be generally said that there has a increasing trend of temperature change in the region according to the graph.
10.3.2 Impact of Land-Use Change

Population growth has led to extensive land-use change. Firstly, land cover contributes to the amount of moisture in the atmosphere affecting precipitable water. Secondly, land-use change influences interception, potential evapotranspiration, rooting depth and partitioning between the overland flow and soil infiltration. All these processes have an influence on actual evapotranspiration and recharge and finally groundwater response and streamflow (Calder, 1992). It is likely that land-use change affects water tables and streamflows, thus affecting hydrological drought.
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12000 Yearly Irrigated Area (ha) 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1962-89 2004
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Year
Fig 10.11 Yearly Irrigation Development in the Chindwin Basin
Although the construction of dams and other irrigation facilities has been started especially in the central Myanmar, the number of structures is very few and represents for the specific area and does not cover the whole country. After 1990, the construction of dams, reservoirs and other structures and projects related to the water supply for various purposes has gained momentum through the country. There is no doubt that the amount of cultivated area has increased with the high potential of water availability from those completed hydraulic structures. As a result, much amount evapotranspiration from these cultivated areas lower the groundwater level continuously causing the faster (steeper) recessions and finally may lead to streamflow drought.
60000 Cumulative Irrigated Area (ha) 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1962-89 2004
Year
Fig 10.12 Cumulative Irrigation Development in the Chindwin Basin
102
In Myanmar the statistics normally shows the progress of irrigation development in local wise and it does not provide the irrigation development in terms of river basin area. Chindwin river basin is located mostly in the upper Sagaing division. Here the increase of cultivated areas provided by reservoirs in Sagaing division is assumed and considered as of the Chindwin basin for an easy way to determine the cultivated area. Pumping irrigation projects along the Chindwin river can be found and considered altogether. Detail list of Irrigation development is shown in Appendix-A. According to the Fig 10.11, the agriculture did not play a vital role in the area till 1989. Then irrigation sector had a progress which amount to 27% of the total cultivated area during the period of 1989-1994. The irrigation in the last period, 1995-2004, gives the high peak and covers about 70% of the total irrigated area. That situation clearly shows that much amount of evapotranspiration can be lost in this period compare to other periods and finally the large change in land use may lead to the lowering the groundwater table.
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Chapter. 11 Discussion, Recommendation and Conclusion

11.1 General
This fact imposes constraints on
Large basins without human influence hardly exist.
drought analysis. Human activities make the multifaceted relationship between meteorological and hydrological droughts even more complicated. They may enhance natural hydrological drought. For instance, a soil moisture drought in a semi-arid region requires additional irrigation. This water may come from surface water, and the abstraction of water implies low reservoir levels or streamflow enhancing surface water drought. Irrigation water can also be abstracted from groundwater leading to low water tables and reduced groundwater discharge. This may enhance an already existing groundwater drought and also contribute to surface water drought. Human activities can cause drought. Groundwater abstractions for domestic and industrial use are a well-known example of such an environmental change. These permanent abstractions lead to lowering of water tables and reduce groundwater discharge. A hydrological drought can even develop, which would not have shown up without abstractions. Construction of a reservoir could also induce development of stream flow drought downstream of the dam. Some human activities are meant to reduce water excess, but unintentionally they continue to drought development. An example is land drainage. Like groundwater abstractions, land drainage causes permanently lower water tables making the region more susceptible to drought.
11.2
Discussion
Downstream portion of the Chindwin basin is located in the dry zone of the country whereas the upper most portion of the basin has the much amount of rainfall and relatively less temperature. Meteorologists monitor the extent and severity of drought in terms of rainfall deficiencies. Agriculturists rate the impact on soil moisture, hydrologists compare runoff rate and sociologists define it on social expectations and perceptions. This study is indicating that discharge rate over the basin is in decreasing state with respect to the time. Although the hydrologic data tests provided reasonably consistent and homogeneous according to the result, some disturbances or errors are found during the recession periods without rain. It might occur due to human errors regarding to the measuring techniques. From duration curve and frequency curve drought discharges such as EFQ90 and 7Q10 are interpreted and then percentile value of the period and return period for the critical depth of the stream especially for navigation are determined. This minimum requirement of water
Chapter 11. Discussion, Recommendation and Conclusion
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depth is relevant to the value of EFQ97 which is expected to be equal or exceeded 97 % of the study period. Furthermore from the frequency analysis, best fit distribution was Pearson III distribution especially between return periods of 2 and 100 years. Using Pearson III distribution, low flow frequency curve for Chindwin river at Monywa station can be drawn and critical depth, 1m for navigation is expected to occur once four years. In the preparation of frequency curve logarithmic scale is used rather than probability scale. In the recession curve analysis non-linear function is found to be more relevant with the actual ground water contribution. Recession property has decreased with the time and in the last 10-year interval recession curves are significantly lower than that of other periods. According to the study these indices have indicated the same picture of the low flow condition of the Chindwin basin that the tendency of low flow occurrence has increased gradually with the time and the occurrence of the low flow is the lowest in the last 10-year interval (between 1995-2004) of the whole study period which start in 1975 and ends in 2004. Then these results are necessarily to be checked with other available information in the study area so that possible reasons or correlations could be found. Flow recession properties are subject to seasonal variation and changes due to evapotranspiration and other fluxes and abstraction from ground water. Impacts of seasons like meteorological changes and other influences on flow recessions are described to meet the result of the analyses in the previous chapters. Here impact of climate change and land use change, especially development of the cultivated area are mainly focused relevant to the results of the study. Meteorological data such as annual rainfall of the basin area and mean annual temperature of the Monywa gauging station are observed. Climatic change during the study period is found that there was a decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature especially after the 90s causing the corresponding low flows in the same year. The result shows that the pattern in changes of annual low flows is generally similar to the change in annual precipitation and temperature. Especially in the last 10-year interval of the study period, the mean temperature increased rapidly. As a result regional warming encourages the high potential evapotranspiration. That situation can lower the groundwater level and might lead to the high possibility of low flow occurrence in the stream. That picture coincides the results obtained from the determination of low flow indices. Irrigation development could also be a critical factor because much amount of evapotranspiration is lost during the irrigation season. Intensification of irrigation with pumped ground water could also be a reason for this change. It is sure that the country has rapidly gained momentum in the construction of irrigation facilities such as dams, reservoirs, pumping irrigation projects etc. throughout the country for agriculture purpose
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since 1990. From 1962 to 1989 the irrigation development in the region indicates only 3% of the total cultivated area of the Chindwin basin. Then agriculture sector has increased gradually during the middle period 1989-1994 giving the amount of 27% of the net cultivated area. In the last 10-year period, from 1995 to 2004, the cultivated area in the region has reached the peak figure which constitutes 70% of the total cultivated area. There was a change or progress in vegetation of the area. This situation might show that the enormous amount of surface and/or groundwater is maintained and extracted in the basin and the potential of groundwater reservoir contribution has decreased. On the other hand, up to year 2004 total amount of cultivated are about 50000 ha (500 km ) which is only 0.43% of the catchment area, 115300 km . So this irrigation development could not strongly affect to the steeper low flows in the region. Annual deforestation rate of Chindwin basin was roughly estimated and it showed only about 1 % between 1990 and 1995. It can not affect the low flow occurrence. Reforestation program hast started since 1995 in the dry zone of Myanmar which also cover the lower part of the Chindwin basin. It surely affect the high evaporation loss and lead to the lower stream flows. But exact contribution of the reforestation rate in the area could not be analyzed due to the lack of information. Besides there may be other man-made impacts which can be taken into consideration for low flows studies such as impact of surface water control, impact of groundwater abstraction and impact of urbanization. Here these impacts could not be analyzed due to the lack of information and but could be discussed theoretically. Many rivers, lakes and reservoirs have been modified to serve various purposes, such as improving navigation, reducing floods, energy production, enhancing low flows, supplying drinking water, providing wildlife habitat, and increasing the possibilities for recreation. Many of these modifications may affect streamflow drought. Reservoirs have an important effect on the streamflow hydrograph. Groundwater abstractions may initiate or enhance hydrological drought. Abstraction leads to lower water tables and consequently to lower spring yields and groundwater flow to streams. It may cause both groundwater and streamflow droughts. Emigration from rural to urban areas has occurred everywhere, and still continues in most developing countries. The provision of water supply, sanitations and drainage are key elements of the urbanization process. Urbanization also involves a huge demand for water. This water may be supplied from aquifers beneath the city and its surroundings or it may be imported from other catchments at a distance. Where groundwater is abstracted in or near the city it influences hydraulic heads of aquifers beneath the city and water tables in superficial layers.
Chapter 11. Discussion, Recommendation and Conclusion 2 2
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As a whole, there are three indices obtained in this study for characterizing low flow regimes and droughts. These indices show their properties themselves to express different aspects of drought. As a result, the high potential of low flow occurrence in Chindwin river at Monywa station could happen due to the high seasonal variation and rapid increase of cultivated area in the region through which much evapotranspiration are lost from groundwater storage.
11.3
Recommendation
The study is carried out for the determination of low flow indices using mean daily discharge. The most significant low flows occur during the period of last 10-year interval. Concerning with the analysis, following activities are recommended to be implemented. For duration curve and frequency analysis the probability scale should be used in graphical presentation so that better frequency curves are obtained with all possible information. In recession analysis, base flow separation should be carried out to know the turning points of the recession and in order to determine also the base flow index and the groundwater storage if necessary. The curves representing the recession flows are derived both from linear and nonlinear and then the calculated recessions given by the nonlinear reservoir is found to be close to the actual occurrence of groundwater contribution. Master recession constant for the whole recorded length, 30 year, should also be determined as an index of low flow and for a short forecasting of dry weather flow. Since the recession property varies with the seasonal changes, flow recession analysis should be carried out in the very different seasons if possible, i.e. in the winter as well as in the summer whose mean temperature difference is quite distinct. In fact it was the first approximation of the depletion flows at only one gauging site and result may be regarded as the preliminary assumption regarding to the precise master recession constant. Other gauging stations i.e. all sub basins of the Chindwin catchment should also be conducted by same analyses in order to know how the results are fitted and to find the interrelations between low flow indices of all stations in the basin. Since all the analyses mainly based on the basic records collected at the Monywa gauging station, accuracy of the results virtually lies on the reliability of that basic information. In presence of this problem, more reliable and accurate flow data are recommended to collect. Constructive criticism followings the finding at the fields would be complimentary to further processing for more accurate presentations.
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Moreover all possible impacts should be found out and analyzed in order to detect all possible causes for drought in the stream flows. Besides types of vegetation, deforestation and reforestation should be examined in all sub basins so that severity of drought situation can be monitored with time and space. Due to the high temperature, only low water demanding crops should be introduced in the area to reduce the evapotranspiration losses which may lead to the high ground water abstraction. This study will be helpful to the sustainable development of socio-economic condition in the region in order to protect and preserve the environment including soil and water resources and to provide the basic water demand of the region. Finally the present way is anyhow believed to give basic methodology for the low flow analysis in the region and to provide useful information for proper planning of water resources management activities. Usefulness of low flow indices obtained in this study for future water resources management and planning in the region is summarized in the following table.
Table 11.1 Summary of drought Characteristics and Indices for water Resources and Drought Assessment (Gustard et al; 1992) (Source : DWS 48) Regime Measure Flow Duration Curve Property Described Proportion of time a Data Employed Daily flows or over several days, weeks or months Applications General regime definition; licensing abstractions (water right) or effluents (discharge consents); hydropower design Annual Minima Series of Frequency curve Proportion of years in which the mean discharge ( of a given duration) is below a given magnitude Recession Indices Rate of decay of hydrograph Daily flows during dry periods Annual minimum flows daily or averaged over several days Drought return period; preliminary design of major schemes; first step in some storage/yield analysis Short-term forecasting; hydrogeological studies; modeling
given flow is exceeded flows averaged
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11.4
Conclusion
This master thesis explores the low flow characteristics of the Chindwin river at Monywa gauging station. Moreover the study tried to find the some correlations between the obtained low flow indices and natural and human impact on hydrological drought. But it does not try to explain how operational water management might to prevent (proactive approach) or to mitigate (reactive approach) drought. Human activities certainly affect water quality as well as water quantity. Concentration of many critical water-quality constituents, such as nutrients and dissolved oxygen, are related to discharge. Soluble pollutants often show a negative correlation with discharge, whereas for dissolved oxygen it is the opposite implying that drought leads to poor water quality. Thus this impact on water quality will be a big issue for further study in the country. Still non-climatic changes may have a greater impact on the natural system than climate change. Dams, diversions and abstraction of surface water, change in land use, extensive use of irrigation, but also industrial discharge to river, can greatly modify the quantity and quality of streamflow. Yet despite, or rather because of, all those possible influences to the hydrological cycle, the understanding of the natural drought phenomenon and its meteorological and hydroclimatological causes are essential for a considerate management of our limited water resources now and in the future.
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REFERENCES
1. 2. Chow, V.T Handbook of Applied Hydrology, A Compendium of Water-resources Technology,1964. Deutsches IHP/OHP-Nationalkomitee Statistical Analysis in Hydrology, Material prepared for training courses, A contribution to the Hydrological Operational Multipurpose Subprogramme (HOMS) of WMO, Sonderheft 2, Koblenz 1986. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Haan, C.T Statistical Methods in Hydrology, Third printing 1982. Jensen, Jrgen ber Instationre Entwicklungen der Wasserstnde an der Nordseekste, 31. October, 1985. Kite, G.W. Frequency and Risk Analyses in Hydrology, Water Resources Publication,1977. Khin Cho Cho Shein and Ohn Gyaw A Study of Agroclimatological Phenomenon in the Dry Zone, J. Myan. Acad. Tech. 3(1), 1-16, 2003. McCuen, Richard H Hydrologic Analysis and Design, Second Edition, 1998. Maung Aung Moe Drought Studies on the selected Rivers in Myanmar, December, 1998 Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Union of Myanmar Draft on Strategic Plan of Integrated Water Resources Management in Myanmar, September, 2004. Ni Lar Aye Flood Regionalization using Rainfall and Basin Characteristics of Catchments, June, 2001. Ponce, Victor Miguel Engineering Hydrology, Principles and Practices, 1989 Phyu Oo Khin and Ohn Gyaw Assessment of Water Availability In Chindwin Catchment, J. Myan. Acad. Tech. 1.31-41, 2001 Ramachandra Rao, A. and Khaled, H. Hamed 2000. Sugiyama, Hironobu Analysis and Extraction Low Flow Recession Characteristics, Joint Seminar on Practical Application in Hydrology on 3 and 4 March, 1996, Irrigation Technology Centre. 15. Sugiyama, Hironobu Hydrologic Drought Characteristics of the Upstream Reaches of the Mae Klong River, Workshop on Sustainable Development of Agricultural, Infrastructure and organizational Management of Chao Phraya and Mae Klong Basin, Bankok, October 30, 1998. 16. Tallaksen, L.M. and Van Lanen, Henny A.J Hydrological Drought, Processes and Etimation Methods for Streamflow and Groundwater, Development in Water Science 48, 2004. Flood Frequency Analysis,
REFERENCES
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17. 18.
Tin Maung (Executive Engineer, Hydrology Section, Irrigation Department) Forecasting of Dry Season Flow through Recession Flow Curves, October 1987. United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific Assessment of water Resources and Water Demand by User Sectors in Myanmar, United Nations Publication, 1996.
19.
U.S Geological Survey, Reston, VA.,Water Resources DIV Computer Program for Describing the Recession of Ground-Water Discharge and For Estimating Mean Ground-Water Recharge and Discharge from Streamflow Records-Update, Water Resources Investigation Report 98-4148,1998.
20. 21.
U Tin Ngwe & U Khin Soe, Case Study on Floddplain Management in Myanmar, 28. April, 2004. Wittenberg, Hartmut and Sivapalan, M Watershed Groundwater Balance Estimation using Streamflow Recession Analysis and Baseflow Seperation, Journal of Hydrology 219 (1999) 20-33.
22.
Wittenberg, Hartmut Effects of Season and Man-made Changes on Baseflow and Flow Recession: Case Studies, Hydrological Processes,17,2113-2123 (2003).
23. 24.
Wittenberg, Hartmut Hydrologie Vorlesungsunterlagen, Ausgabe 2004. World Meteorological Organization Guide to Hydrological Practices (Volume II Analysis, Forecasting and Other Applications),WMO-No.168,Fourth Edition 1983.
Interviewed Persons:
1. Daw Tin Yi, Staff Officer, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology 2. Daw Cho Cho Naing, Assistant Director, Water Resource Utilization Department
Web Sites used :

1. http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/swlwpnr/reports/y_ta/z_mm/mm.htm 2. http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/countries/myanmar/index.stm 3. http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.asp?url_file=/docrep/008 /ae546e/ae546e00.htm 4. http://www.myanmar.gov.mm/ministry/agri/statistics.htm 5. http://www.pbase.com/rovebeetle/image/41479890 6. http://tutiempo.net/en/Climate/asia.htm 7. http://us.i1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/i/travel/dg/maps/42/750x750_myanmar_m.gif 8. http://www.unescap.org/drpad/vc/conference/bg_mm_14_gdz.htm 9. http://earth.google.com
REFERENCES
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Appendix- A Basic Information

Table.1 Various Agencies and Departments engaged in Water Use Sector Agency/Department Irrigation Department Water Resources Utilization Department Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River System Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise Department of Hydroelectric Power Factories under the Ministry of Industry Myanmar Fishery Enterprise City Development Committee Department of Development Affairs Private users Department of Meteorology and Hydrology Forest Department Public Works Department of Human Settlement and Housing Development Department of Health Central Health Education Bureau Dept. of Health Planning Yangon Technological University (Source: Ministry/City/Other Agriculture & Irrigation Agriculture & Irrigation Duty and function Provision of irrigation water to farmland Pump irrigation and rural water supply River training and navigation
Transport
Electric Power Electric Power Industry (1) and Industry (2) Livestock, Breeding & Fishery Yangon/Mandalay Progress of Border Areas & National Races and Development Affairs UN agencies, NGOs & private entrepreneurs Transport Forestry Construction Construction Health Health Science and Technology
Electric power generation Hydropower generation Industrial use Fishery works City water supply and sanitation Domestic and rural water supply and sanitation Domestic water supply navigation & fisheries Water assessment of main rivers Reforestation and conservation of forest Domestic & industrial water supply and sanitation Domestic water supply Environmental health, water quality assessment and control Social mobilization, health promotion, behavior research Training and research
http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.asp?url_file=/docrep/008/ae546e/ae546e00.htm)
Appendix-A Basic Information
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Table.2 Major Government Organizations engaged in Groundwater Extraction Ministry Agriculture and Irrigation Agriculture and Irrigation Organization/Department Agriculture Mechanization Department Irrigation Department Division/Section Rural Water Supply Division Drilling Division Nature of Responsibility Rural domestic water supply Irrigation for Agriculture Purpose Provision, Supervision and management of urban water supply and sanitation services Domestic and rural water supply and sanitation Municipal water supply and sanitation Planning of urban water supply and sanitation works Construction of urban water supply and sanitation works. Water supply to government owned building
Health
General Affairs Department
Environmental Sanitation Department
Progress of Border Areas & National Races and Development Affairs
Department of Development Affairs City Development Committee
Township Development
Yangon/Mandalay Urban water supply and Sanitation division
Construction
Department of Human Settlement and Development
Construction
Public Works
Water and Sanitation Division
(Source: United Nations Publication, 1996)
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Table.3 Irrigation Area Development of Myanmar Since 1962 Year 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Irrigated Area (million ha) 0.54 0.57 0.77 0.795 0.8 0.785 0.79 0.81 0.815 0.82 0.89 0.895 0.99 0.995 0.998 Year 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Irrigated Area (million ha) 0.95 0.995 1.025 1.0 1.08 1.03 1.005 1.06 1.08 1.06 1.065 1.0 1.015 1.005 1.0 Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Irrigated Area (million ha) 1.0 1.1 1.34 1.56 1.76 1.56 1.59 1.69 1.84 1.91 1.99 1.97 2.11
(Source: http://www.fao.org/ag/agl/aglw/aquastat/countries/myanmar/index.stm http://www.myanmar.gov.mm/ministry/agri/statistics.htm )
Table.4 Irrigation Development in Chindwin Basin (ha) (as of Sagaing Division) Year 1962-89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Pumping 1141 2736 506 5906 304 4047 1214 Reservoir 1416 10399 506 607 4815 4856 3237 4102 2469 Total 1416 10399 506 607 5956 2736 5362 5906 304 7284 4102 3683 Cumulative 1416 1416 1416 11815 12321 12321 12928 18884 21620 26982 32888 33192 40476 40476 44578 48261
(Source: Irrigation Technology Center & Water Resource Utilization Department)

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Appendix- B Maps of the Study Area, Chindwin Watershed

Map.1 Soil Erodibility Factor (K) & Soil Map of Chindwin Watershed Area (1990)
(Source: Ni Lar Aye, 2001)
Appendix-B Maps of The Study Area
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Map.2 Land Cover Map of Chindwin Watershed (1990)
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Map.3 Land Cover Map of Chindwin Watershed (2000)
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Map.4 Rainfall Isohyetal Map of Chindwin Baisn with Rainfall Stations
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Appendix- C Meteorological and Hydrological Data Used in the Study

Table.1 Daily Mean Discharge of Chindwin river (m /s)
Station - Monywa 1975 JAN FEB 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1523 1497 1450 1394 1371 1341 1300 1258 1219 1188 1160 1142 1138 1130 1123 1113 1105 1100 1090 1078 1067 1059 1054 1054 1054 1049 1047 1044 1044 1044 1033 1028 1028 1023 1023 1023 1016 1005 995 992 985 979 974 966 961 961 961 961 955 959 994 1013 1023 1021 1016 1000 990 985 976 MAR APL 814 809 808 799 792 784 778 778 777 775 769 763 749 743 739 733 727 721 721 715 715 713 711 713 735 771 795 825 859 884 MAY JUN 1544 1720 1816 1904 2512 2803 3150 3080 2725 2396 2444 2754 2977 3038 2717 2560 4023 7735 10364 11087 10940 10087 8165 6580 5598 6059 7893 9260 10257 9688 JUL 9441 10109 10953 11697 12347 12563 12640 12523 11890 11770 11750 11580 11500 11707 12303 13123 13710 13930 13960 13867 13523 13853 14267 14600 14923 15040 14793 14300 13917 13430 13610 AUG SEP 8077 7668 7418 7468 9004 9888 10440 11663 14600 12940 16147 16557 15803 14757 13267 12490 11603 10737 10353 9983 9792 9963 10200 10817 10850 10713 9962 8616 7627 7218 OCT NOV 6112 6638 5665 5313 5073 4853 4753 4780 4700 4520 4016 3817 3764 3840 4142 4034 3796 3796 3727 3535 3321 3094 2968 2838 2676 2592 2500 2468 2396 2364 DEC 2284 2236 2209 2153 2150 2127 2070 2033 1997 1963 1915 1883 1816 1800 1776 1736 1736 1736 1725 1709 1680 1637 1595 1573 1557 1512 1473 1456 1450 1435 1422
3
971 961 945 935 926 921 916 911 907 900 897 892 887 882 877 872 867 862 857 852 847 842 838 833 833 828 828 823 819 819 814 -
908 934 940 857 791 785 795 814 838 857 862 857 877 900 934 952 931 919 905 895 887 887 887 885 963 1168 1350 1256 1373 1435 1439 -
13890 14590 14913 16223 17410 17760 17200 15823 14123 12283 11077 10650 12337 12970 12700 12170 11107 10270 11027 10170 9412 8443 8424 8605 9898 10467 10383 10350 9621 9669 9051 -
6603 6280 6112 5748 5422 5561 6000 6232 7420 12690 11757 13310 15430 16357 16657 16790 16590 16407 16200 15510 14040 12340 11117 10152 7610 6612 5960 5554 5307 5353 5805 -
1976 JAN FEB MAR APL MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1 1413 1103 1064 955 1147 1375 8823 11280 10563 7102 2652 1843 2 1407 1095 1047 974 1113 1409 9488 11637 10440 6024 2504 1853 3 1396 1082 1030 974 1085 1501 10623 12427 10897 5466 2268 1925 4 1388 1074 1007 971 1064 1717 11687 10797 10069 5453 2177 1984 5 1366 1069 985 969 1044 2055 12410 11100 9099 5495 2100 2057 6 1345 1067 976 964 1026 2147 12997 11240 8359 5635 2043 2087 7 1332 1062 971 940 1011 2682 13380 11903 8252 5429 1976 2067 8 1322 1078 966 935 1000 3197 13847 12460 8567 5539 1936 2027 9 1317 1107 966 935 1085 3169 14613 12660 8270 5347 1907 1920 10 1309 1113 966 932 1145 3145 15480 12760 8177 4713 1864 1837 11 1294 1125 966 916 1162 3976 16290 12500 7768 4500 1840 1648 12 1281 1122 957 914 1185 6888 17140 12560 7343 4022 1821 1576 13 1268 1122 962 908 1188 9574 17857 12540 6952 3785 1792 1518 14 1258 1128 985 905 1247 11367 18297 12730 6802 3291 1771 1488 15 1247 1118 990 902 1298 12203 18983 13413 6480 3173 1749 1450 16 1236 1105 999 895 1343 12543 20800 13577 5835 3274 1717 1418 17 1224 1097 1018 895 1450 12873 22340 13150 6184 3228 1688 1386 18 1206 1074 1038 1433 1383 13040 23700 13190 6802 3159 1661 1364 19 1193 1066 1088 2067 1428 13010 25000 13320 6852 3178 1645 1341 20 1182 1081 1157 2057 1377 12940 25700 13620 6718 3169 1627 1313
Appendix-C Meteorological and Hydrological Data
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21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1175 1167 1158 1147 1135 1130 1130 1125 1125 1117 1108 -
1044 1039 1033 1028 1023 1044 1069 1064 1072
1180 1130 1105 1075 1058 1011 966 963 957 938 937 MAR
1792 1651 1501 1415 1326 1262 1243 1224 1204 1183
1390 12780 1356 12047 1396 10620 1428 8861 1733 7752 1688 6794 1563 6635 1467 6743 1424 7635 1384 8381 1347 MAY JUN 1484 1390 1364 1409 1685 3049 4244 4440 4262 4070 3775 3497 3263 3187 3131 3173 3247 3332 3792 4190 4448 4727 4853 5269 6104 7485 8077 7852 7285 6718
26450 25750 25200 22627 21250 19173 17390 15410 13253 11707 11280 JUL 6668 6993 7335 7235 7218 7402 7927 8330 8681 9023 9308 9602 9811 9963 10690 11893 12170 11860 11977 11573 11390 11687 12213 12850 13050 13070 12970 12273 11407 11170 11500
13770 14053 14610 14997 15230 15453 14980 14200 13070 12027 11480 AUG
6537 6248 6048 6360 7593 8227 8385 8185 8880 8118
3905 6319 6752 6546 5211 4034 3561 3113 2898 2772 2708 OCT
1584 1557 1544 1528 1512 1499 1488 1473 1739 1835
1294 1281 1270 1262 1249 1236 1224 1211 1198 1188 1178 DEC 1595 1576 1565 1541 1528 1528 1520 1505 1488 1475 1462 1462 1439 1426 1405 1405 1405 1405 1405 1405 1392 1392 1392 1392 1373 1339 1292 1260 1207 1172 1142
1977 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEB 981 979 976 971 968 966 964 961 959 952 945 940 934 928 923 921 916 913 911 907 907 907 902 897 894 890 884 872
APL 798 800 809 800 798 851 882 907 940 950 1113 1213 1349 1386 1302 1247 1201 1306 1272 1256 1234 1226 1217 1206 1200 1190 1178 1168 1155 1145
SEP 20390 23127 23663 23213 21550 19213 16670 14940 14310 14997 15260 15343 14683 14047 12660 11850 9869 9536 9887 10410 10860 10450 11833 12627 12587 12440 11787 10793 9841 8833
NOV 2740 2680 2825 2949 2828 2760 2672 2500 2213 2140 2692 2680 2576 2276 2147 1941 2070 2037 2010 2007 2003 1979 1957 1947 1931 1880 1824 1763 1720 1680
1170 1170 1165 1160 1155 1150 1145 1138 1135 1128 1118 1108 1100 1095 1090 1085 1078 1069 1062 1052 1049 1044 1039 1031 1025 1020 1011 1000 995 989 983 -
867 855 847 842 839 867 1013 1092 1088 973 938 929 908 890 875 864 844 841 835 826 820 816 812 806 805 805 805 805 800 800 799 -
1130 1113 1087 1052 1033 1020 1011 1002 995 996 1096 1208 1234 1288 1351 1473 1533 1571 1728 1974 2408 2808 2797 2636 2324 2147 2053 1947 1877 1672 1552 -
12203 12833 13690 14323 14863 15227 15687 16123 16257 15253 14070 12883 11470 10173 9089 8265 8068 8738 9688 10707 11480 12120 12200 12110 11873 11967 11870 11637 11170 12803 17027 -
7743 7093 6885 6546 5905 5483 5100 4733 4967 5591 6489 5914 5307 4900 4540 4208 3856 3572 3331 2898 2856 3075 3252 3024 2837 2764 2700 2652 2600 2536 2544 -
1978 JAN FEB MAR APL MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1 1105 897 805 693 690 2206 14873 10710 7302 7743 2212 1521 2 1073 892 805 689 702 1972 15610 10660 7985 7093 2180 1492 3 1049 887 803 685 699 1901 16120 10710 8576 6885 2060 1437 4 1041 882 800 682 688 1928 16153 11067 8064 6546 1955 1407 5 1042 877 800 681 687 1944 16120 11367 7310 5905 1923 1379 6 1057 870 798 681 690 1912 16160 12317 7135 5483 1920 1360 7 1078 867 796 680 681 1864 16347 12720 6902 5100 1885 1352 8 1067 865 794 678 681 1904 15767 12830 6643 4733 1848 1322 9 1052 860 791 674 681 2536 15620 12997 7843 4967 1829 1294 10 1039 857 788 672 681 2742 15223 13130 8994 5591 1827 1281 11 1026 855 787 672 678 3297 14600 13297 10717 6489 1848 1245 12 1021 852 785 681 687 3412 14123 13660 10960 5914 1797 1226 13 1013 850 784 692 703 3641 13450 14110 10212 5307 1757 1219 14 1005 847 780 703 751 4940 11890 14753 9317 4900 1723 1211
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15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1979 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
997 992 992 987 985 979 974 971 964 959 952 942 935 924 919 911 902 FEB
845 842 841 838 836 833 831 828 828 826 822 819 814 809
779 778 778 776 773 765 755 747 743 739 735 725 714 708 702 698 695 MAR
707 713 723 743 751 721 708 699 692 686 680 677 673 672 672 675
769 772 791 831 1064 1150 1223 1341 1497 1629 1616 1712 3484 4034 3444 2917 2484 MAY
6352 6504 6224 6008 5525 5353 5213 5093 5033 4840 6942 9537 11270 12370 13517 14277
10181 8785 7677 7027 7610 8836 10690 12437 12700 12940 12783 12337 11707 10527 10190 10487 11110 JUL 2198 2388 4091 7861 9974 10807 10900 10096 8814 7802 6810 6216 6064 6112 6256 6589 7143 7627 7927 8052 7918 8127 9127 10430 11187 11707 12120 12410 13040 12850 12950 JUL 5220 5220 5153 5730 6368 6480 5745 5781
15197 14853 14160 13710 12573 11160 10153 9707 9555 8317 7360 6685 6264 5880 5789 6088 6224 AUG
9755 10049 9612 9042 8294 7435 7327 7085 6256 7852 8671 8766 9051 10532 11593 11077
4540 4208 3856 3572 3331 2898 2856 3075 3252 3024 2837 2764 2700 2652 2600 2536 2544 OCT
1709 1677 1664 1632 1597 1576 1536 1518 1492 1454 1443 1437 1467 1573 1592 1571
1198 1180 1163 1148 1135 1132 1130 1125 1118 1108 1098 1092 1080 1067 1051 1044 1035 DEC 1466 1503 1616 1653 1624 1568 1565 1592 1624 1640 1592 1514 1469 1413 1379 1354 1334 1302 1283 1258 1232 1217 1202 1192 1177 1168 1160 1155 1145 1140 1125 DEC 1595 1576 1549 1521 1496 1486 1462 1443
APL 631 634 634 634 634 636 637 641 644 656 675 757 780 788 787 710 690 658 635 626 625 625 621 631 637 637 634 644 650 629
JUN 641 616 596 566 557 542 532 530 534 544 545 548 571 599 658 742 1051 1499 1696 1744 1744 1885 2027 2147 2150 2000 2100 2236 2392 2328
SEP 11367 11967 12400 12593 12617 12607 12907 13557 14697 15800 16987 18073 18813 18840 18303 17800 17113 16393 15413 14150 12440 10590 8956 7627 6571 6088 5883 6720 7710 10883
NOV 2796 2748 2624 2492 2376 2276 2208 2150 2097 2030 1984 1936 1896 1869 1832 1800 1776 1744 1712 1680 1648 1589 1571 1589 1587 1560 1531 1535 1488 1475
1028 1015 1005 997 983 979 971 953 940 929 926 919 913 908 904 894 885 875 869 862 857 852 847 842 836 830 823 819 812 805 800 FEB
797 794 792 789 787 782 780 778 776 775 769 769 769 765 757 751 749 743 739 735 731 727 727 725 719 713 709 703
692 686 680 678 675 674 667 661 657 653 647 637 631 626 623 620 614 611 607 604 601 598 595 589 585 582 579 579 582 602 611 MAR
626 638 634 627 618 616 605 600 597 596 637 664 673 672 668 660 645 631 613 581 572 568 565 569 601 658 717 771 733 695 667 MAY 877 877 955 1030 1083 1025 968 968
13110 13310 13227 12987 12433 12327 12327 12460 12390 12247 11430 10012 8405 7160 6190 6256 6810 6852 6384 6072 6152 7493 8880 10182 11057 11520 12337 11643 11210 10980 11190 AUG 11530 11943 12150 12627 13217 13640 13940 14037
13390 14083 12157 11740 10390 9460 9336 9821 10657 11603 12253 12597 12927 13160 13230 13183 12873 11840 10031 8131 6353 4847 4365 4070 3775 3497 3295 3117 2973 2847 2800 OCT 13080 12617 13403 14717 17023 18720 24250 26750
1980 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1135 1132 1128 1123 1118 1110 1105 1093
APL 789 784 779 816 869 973 971 955
JUN 1148 1103 1158 1323 1584 1765 1845 1887
SEP 11387 11667 10807 10087 10440 10510 10727 9962
NOV 4753 4124 3866 3753 3636 3540 3439 3321
907 904 895 887 882 882 877 872
790 793 803 803 794 799 828 844
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9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1083 1074 1072 1069 1062 1056 1047 1037 1028 1018 1005 994 985 974 968 957 952 945 935 924 919 916 911 FEB
870 867 865 862 857 852 847 842 838 833 828 823 819 814 809 805 800 798 795 795 793
844 921 870 879 898 833 964 799 1054 795 1059 784 996 783 983 779 974 755 959 723 940 729 919 765 897 821 879 905 846 955 816 1007 790 1033 790 975 790 938 790 929 790 924 790 902 788 MAR APL 852 855 862 870 870 857 855 852 852 847 847 862 951 1059 1123 1132 1095 1059 1025 1013 1021 1016 1016 1069 1085 1085 1080 1074 1054 1023
992 1013 1030 1047 1086 1198 1381 1490 1494 1435 1390 1373 1343 1247 1192 1150 1135 1204 1226 1226 1162 1130 1226 MAY
1771 2107 3636 4347 4833 5020 5437 7277 8085 7702 7468 8747 9583 10670 11013 11490 11633 9860 8410 7677 6035 5140
6465 8523 9108 9460 8633 8557 9308 10430 11407 11800 12203 12430 12843 13260 13837 14147 14193 14007 13557 12730 11017 10780 11033 JUL 9099 9917 10647 11417 12087 12687 13297 13793 14277 14743 14940 14720 14397 13803 12903 11790 10817 10713 11623 12523 13267 13940 14540 14923 14927 14127 12980 11923 11190 11020 11150 JUL
14083 8785 14467 7685 14830 7435 14997 7293 15040 6827 15053 6320 15110 5952 15020 5752 15010 6680 15320 8500 15727 8975 16197 8529 16640 7810 17177 7810 17600 7710 16907 7860 15917 8994 15273 9536 14433 9536 13743 10240 13123 11750 12617 13070 11747 AUG SEP 11697 12273 12420 12400 12367 11693 11313 10743 10247 9944 9678 9678 9441 9707 10183 10730 11220 11100 10743 10002 9545 8433 7393 6265 5591 5561 5395 5067 4747 4374
27300 26050 23600 20540 18040 16307 15320 13187 9858 8369 7435 7435 7310 7160 6877 6120 5819 5774 5613 5495 5307 5153 4893 OCT
3220 3173 3071 2893 2740 2392 2209 2153 2100 2060 2011 1976 1907 1800 1752 1736 1736 1720 1677 1608 1608 1608
1420 1403 1379 1362 1349 1330 1313 1296 1270 1253 1240 1228 1215 1202 1192 1182 1172 1162 1153 1148 1142 1132 1125 DEC 1133 1120 1110 1098 1087 1078 1061 1044 1039 1033 1023 1016 1004 992 987 981 974 966 964 961 955 950 950 945 940 935 931 926 919 911 907 DEC 1195 1183
1981 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
JUN 1369 1485 2685 3029 3166 3497 3599 3668 3333 3005 2700 2464 2436 2396 2764 2616 2624 2828 2776 2842 2796 2712 2528 2616 2796 2784 3133 5505 7735 8673
NOV 1520 1501 1486 1464 1454 1430 1405 1403 1416 1439 1418 1386 1354 1362 1377 1352 1322 1281 1277 1264 1258 1300 1336 1383 1369 1285 1225 1195 1170 1145
1115 1110 1105 1100 1090 1085 1080 1074 1069 1064 1059 1057 1052 1049 1044 1044 1039 1033 1028 1023 1023 1020 1018 1013 1007 1005 1000 997 992 983 979 FEB 899 890
976 971 971 966 966 961 955 950 950 945 942 940 937 935 931 931 926 926 921 918 916 910 899 890 884 875 864 852
838 826 817 808 802 798 795 793 790 791 801 819 838 850 835 826 819 816 842 882 919 934 934 921 902 899 907 907 900 887 867 MAR
973 939 900 877 859 842 831 826 825 841 845 838 828 816 803 797 793 790 874 842 806 796 801 969 1183 1157 1228 1195 1157 1152 1182 MAY 874 892
11323 11687 12647 13453 14110 14320 14133 13440 12793 12277 11677 11117 11407 12130 12120 11447 10750 9953 9004 8443 8306 8234 9222 9726 9773 9355 9355 10059 10663 10990 11130 AUG 16997 20913
4010 3834 3572 3657 3540 3577 3551 3476 3300 3038 2815 2656 2408 2528 2588 2492 2564 2612 2320 2213 2143 2020 1928 1923 1888 1808 1749 2051 1675 1645 1576 OCT 8928 11000
1982 JAN 1 2
APL 662 668
JUN 775 773
SEP 10191 9564
NOV 1989 1907
778 778
733 733
13783 14180
122
Mtr.No.158204
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1983 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
879 869 860 849 845 841 836 828 828 823 819 814 809 805 800 800 798 797 794 793 790 790 790 788 785 783 781 778 778 FEB 911 900 910 892 887 884 880 872 867 862 855 847 842 833 826 819 814 814 809 809 805 805 800 798 798 797 792 788 787 -
778 775 775 775 775 775 775 769 769 769 769 769 769 769 769 769 769 769 769 763 761 757 751 745 739 739
745 757 763 751 725 704 699 696 693 693 690 689 687 684 681 678 675 672 668 668 665 662 659 659 655 653 653 653 650 MAR
667 661 656 656 659 665 669 673 683 705 747 784 795 814 823 811 777 769 757 780 795 800 809 819 833 847 852 857
872 862 852 817 828 846 860 867 910 1009 1009 1018 1064 1018 952 1018 1081 1122 1090 1063 997 950 918 870 836 816 801 786 783 MAY 1215 1193 1215 1399 1587 1589 1576 1811 2125 2404 2540 2312 2133 1949 1891 1781 1749 1632 1536 1486 1418 1366 1313 1277 1251 1201 1197 1177 1152
757 759 816 894 956 1004 976 1100 1198 1431 2499 3631 5130 7535 8237 7318 6104 8754 11140 11580 11347 10740 10343 9754 10060 12100 12977 13360
14297 14517 14070 15723 12737 12067 11950 11437 10910 10190 10048 10637 12100 11653 11870 12007 11633 11003 10087 8652 8842 9194 9583 10287 11843 11933 12790 13557 14627 JUL 5347 5273 5073 5140 5761 6336 7460 8168 8261 8500 8510 8202 7302 6685 6392 6000 5539 5107 4507 4807 4860 4840 4967 5621 7799 9926 11190 11480 11323
23013 22977 21213 19333 17667 14353 14370 14197 12770 12077 12017 11997 11800 11430 10753 10130 8983 7868 9869 11067 11623 11333 11747 12420 13610 13973 13070 12277 11357 AUG 11343 12350 13940 16177 17600 18517 18787 18080 17267 15997 15997 14250 12250 10523 10041 9564 9175 8491 7943 7735 7418 7077 7002 6384 6465 7652 8467 8918 9232
9365 9194 8899 7820 7821 7802 6977 7227 7702 7410 7168 6993 6777 6627 7052 8093 9564 10627 11140 11553 11860 11900 11377 10163 9260 8078 7318 6918
12153 11987 10983 10657 9460 8947 8258 7485 7060 6685 5113 4593 4274 3875 3513 3305 3094 2940 2802 2672 2504 2532 2420 2484 2296 2200 2180 2170 2100 OCT 9536 8690 7643 6745 6064 6464 5605 6742 10667 11450 11417 10740 9868 9460 10193 9821 9412 9678 8426 7193 8485 9308 8595 8093 7168 6032 5687 5260 4893
1856 1957 1805 1760 1707 1691 1651 1603 1560 1528 1496 1484 1503 1536 1664 1803 1808 1701 1970 1864 1768 1725 1693 1656 1624 1234 1206 1200
1178 1168 1152 1143 1128 1112 1103 1093 1083 1071 1061 1049 1035 1025 1018 1011 999 983 974 964 961 955 950 945 945 940 934 924 916 DEC 1739 1715 1672 1624 1592 1576 1557 1531 1490 1473 1454 1435 1416 1388 1351 1339 1315 1292 1272 1256 1238 1221 1206 1200 1193 1183 1173 1168 1160
APL 1201 1140 1086 1039 983 971 952 900 904 916 926 924 935 1052 1236 1285 1485 1723 1885 1891 1819 1765 1728 1675 1550 1409 1283 1217 1307
JUN 1128 1113 1108 1088 1067 1160 1320 1424 1561 1755 2219 2368 2608 2656 2328 2173 2127 2728 2813 2769 3066 3236 3164 3150 3192 3332 3412 3465 4280
SEP 10290 12887 13557 13880 13543 12750 11683 10647 9792 9365 9080 8994 9659 9878 9697 10597 11953 12937 13000 12863 13133 13370 13370 13133 13030 12803 12183 11533 10923
NOV 3817 3535 3364 3159 2987 2814 2712 2668 2612 3455 4596 5643 6152 6050 5353 4491 4353 3873 3174 2879 2680 2492 2344 2195 2080 2011 1952 1880 1797
780 778 769 763 757 751 745 739 733 727 751 778 777 771 763 755 743 731 716 711 706 703 696 694 688 675 665 656
654 662 680 695 704 712 721 733 755 801 825 806 785 761 743 747 776 788 783 771 765 791 844 911 1013 1177 1643 1733 1803
123
Mtr.No.158204
30 31 1984 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
784 783 FEB 939 907 872 849 838 831 823 823 820 817 814 809 809 805 800 800 802 817 825 822 819 826 823 802 793 778 765 753 743
1768 1251 1709 MAR APL 616 613 619 622 614 609 601 601 604 610 620 634 668 715 726 700 685 668 663 672 668 661 650 640 632 651 643 633 636 649
1132 1140 MAY
5273
11160 11160 JUL 10837 10963 11477 11953 12080 12100 12410 12680 12927 13213 13610 13833 14093 14663 15217 15840 16790 15067 20430 21773 21477 19827 18543 17403 16123 15193 14480 14193 14373 14650 15343 JUL 12080 13027 14100 14813 15103 15123 15033 14733 14527 14490 14793 15683 16757 17690 18203 18243 19080 19007 18023 17123 16183 15433 14827
9688 10153 9982 AUG SEP 13520 15370 17870 21587 22637 21700 19007 13531 14163 12957 12863 12650 12267 11800 11427 11170 10777 10670 11067 11477 12037 12220 12380 12440 12097 11180 10003 8747 7543 6482
4613 3938 OCT
1701
1160 1189 DEC 1264 1230 1211 1200 1188 1173 1157 1145 1133 1120 1107 1100 1088 1080 1067 1057 1049 1044 1042 1039 1033 1047 1049 1059 1049 1032 1006 981 969 955 945 DEC 1418 1398 1375 1354 1332 1313 1294 1272 1262 1249 1230 1213 1197 1190 1180 1173 1163 1148 1138 1135 1125 1113 1103
JUN 2220 2705 4308 5949 6272 5127 4124 3609 3065 2628 2775 3213 3225 3263 3711 3944 4232 4640 7657 11107 13240 14227 14697 15080 15207 14937 14123 13237 12120 11437
NOV 2728 2644 2600 2552 2476 2416 2332 2356 2332 2296 2256 2167 2130 2113 2090 2050 2017 1973 1933 1893 1837 1779 1739 1680 1637 1595 1539 1473 1401 1326
1270 1354 1403 1384 1328 1279 1232 1185 1143 1125 1107 1092 1076 1059 1049 1039 1026 1011 994 981 979 969 959 950 943 967 1007 1014 992 966 950 FEB 932 924 918 910 902 895 887 882 877 870 860 857 852 845 839 835 828 823 819 814 808 800 797
725 713 709 706 706 704 702 699 697 694 689 683 678 676 672 668 663 660 658 654 649 642 636 633 631 628 625 622 622 622 620 MAR
664 697 719 739 725 710 719 747 773 778 783 785 800 825 811 822 841 860 862 921 1004 1076 1235 1601 1977 2284 2147 1920 1856 1939 2140 MAY 802 809 820 838 852 872 884 862 836 814 798 798 795 802 809 801 795 788 772 747 761 786 851
16490 17270 17620 17393 16723 16623 16167 16007 15970 15477 14757 13360 12883 10773 9963 10190 10363 11243 11210 9800 8994 9678 9992 9897 10363 10430 10797 11353 11407 11457 12180 AUG 17143 17640 18070 19413 18623 16423 14550 13193 12327 11373 11127 11337 11170 10840 10610 10440 10133 9507 8918 8823 8500 9507 10617
5767 5133 4827 4987 4880 4840 4820 4680 4428 4268 4286 4136 4052 5149 5333 4987 4607 4401 4292 4040 4255 4853 5027 5200 5307 5120 4529 3969 3551 3181 2898 OCT 12820 13277 12573 12150 11437 9945 8766 7910 7627 6529 6112 5708 5287 4800 4292 4112 4441 4627 4793 4547 4753 4467 4112
1985 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
APL 644 641 637 634 634 631 634 640 644 641 641 644 641 641 656 674 686 698 712 751 817 880 916
JUN 6008 5717 4369 3695 3223 3249 4979 8848 11190 11057 10777 11087 11020 10650 10267 9640 8994 8500 9450 11480 12450 12907 13070
SEP 14277 13280 12170 11097 10460 10817 11603 12480 12840 12990 14847 15580 16127 15353 14983 15130 15183 14540 13400 12330 11407 10086 10012
NOV 2732 2636 2572 2520 2444 2392 2364 2340 2296 2252 2216 2197 2167 2137 2107 2077 2040 1955 1933 1893 1869 1845 1808
771 771 763 757 749 745 745 739 745 745 741 749 757 757 749 741 741 741 733 739 733 727 718
693 690 683 677 672 667 662 659 656 656 657 656 653 650 648 644 641 644 648 653 654 649 640
124
Mtr.No.158204
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1986 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
794 790 788 786 786 783 780 778 FEB
709 706 703 703 699
633 627 620 616 613 618 629 639 MAR
950 980 976 934 887 846 808
952 1190 1447 1791 2843 4185 5087 5621 MAY
13430 12883 11707 10480 9650 9964 11047
14033 13590 13857 13970 14287 14730 15283 15893 JUL 6320 7027 7227 6793 5901 5133 4947 6150 9517 10360 8842 7860 7143 6400 5435 4860 4329 4124 4853 7495 11290 12607 13000 13660 14287 13963 13390 13100 13390 13400 12360 JUL 4993 5080 4940 4880 5120 7119 9023 10550 11583 12100 12493 12977 13300 13567 13810 13900 13860
11427 12213 12707 13390 14420 14623 14803 14793 AUG
9897 9336 9849 10107 10152 11850 11767
3902 3728 3572 3535 3487 3327 3145 3019 OCT
1771 1725 1669 1635 1592 1484 1428
1095 1090 1083 1072 1064 1059 1054 1046 DEC 1573 1528 1501 1462 1439 1428 1441 1377 1364 1345 1326 1307 1294 1281 1262 1249 1236 1224 1211 1198 1188 1183 1178 1173 1168 1163 1158 1153 1150 1147 1143 DEC 1600 1568 1528 1501 1475 1450 1435 1422 1409 1396 1384 1371 1358 1345 1332 1320 1307
APL 674 664 658 652 641 628 622 618 612 610 610 611 613 616 629 634 634 634 634 636 637 646 747 970 1092 1110 1105 1120 1128 1097
JUN 703 678 658 640 625 613 600 593 591 599 599 594 593 631 720 727 787 793 843 915 940 1011 1354 2195 2884 3609 4112 4507 4540 5007
SEP 12060 11760 11520 11460 11417 11250 10880 10860 10747 11563 12553 13980 14910 15420 15157 14610 13803 13277 12917 13350 14440 13840 12863 11750 10407 8947 7685 6977 6192 5277
NOV 3155 3010 2879 2712 2564 2440 2324 2264 2201 2293 2668 3508 3663 3561 3396 3080 2811 2624 2444 2272 2123 1976 1832 1723 1672 1653 1637 1621 1608 1600
1037 1031 1021 1007 1007 1013 1018 1013 1005 990 979 971 959 942 928 918 916 914 911 911 907 907 907 907 907 904 897 890 880 870 860 FEB
852 847 841 831 822 814 809 805 800 798 798 795 795 794 791 787 782 777 769 763 757 751 745 739 737 733 727 721
715 712 709 705 698 693 690 687 684 681 678 677 675 672 672 671 668 668 668 668 668 665 666 682 705 719 733 733 720 698 684 MAR
1013 931 895 857 847 862 882 919 926 926 898 872 852 842 877 1004 1123 1113 1061 1039 1007 990 949 907 867 836 808 793 783 769 737 MAY 783 779 773 780 803 852 885 892 860 850 845 847 872 882 875 857 833
11303 10920 11293 12007 12873 14647 14333 13690 12193 10269 8657 7660 6613 5650 5060 4600 4800 5510 5620 6024 6572 8072 8985 9260 9669 10607 11560 11943 12010 12020 11860 AUG 12037 14707 14697 14900 14247 15980 16690 17123 17240 17190 17357 17023 17590 18297 18487 18430 18023
6088 7143 6192 6160 6855 9279 10387 11730 12430 12770 13473 14163 14720 15147 14983 14217 13527 11903 10520 9194 8027 7135 6368 5598 5027 4733 4359 4004 3780 3551 3343 OCT 13837 14397 15020 15517 15727 15957 15647 14970 14023 16200 10446 9412 7993 7043 6280 5708 5280
1987 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1133 1130 1123 1118 1113 1108 1103 1100 1093 1088 1080 1074 1071 1066 1061 1052 1042
APL 788 761 739 716 703 695 689 678 671 669 708 718 767 780 790 809 826
JUN 664 665 681 724 788 824 1068 1390 4746 8731 10363 10580 10191 9754 9830 10517 10950
SEP 16017 16373 16523 16990 16940 16640 16390 16290 16207 16113 15857 16093 16167 15890 14867 14353 13383
NOV 2584 2484 2352 2232 2137 2073 2007 1968 1936 1888 1901 1885 1869 1853 1840 1832 1824
872 867 867 867 867 867 870 884 913 924 926 924 918 908 892 880 865
765 755 743 733 733 731 725 719 714 711 708 705 700 697 696 693 693
125
Mtr.No.158204
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1031 1021 1011 1000 990 979 969 959 945 931 911 899 890 880 FEB
855 845 831 817 801 790 784 779 773 769 769
693 693 694 700 707 709 709 713 723 735 749 779 795 800 MAR
828 823 834 879 894 894 865 830 808 785 765 771 779
809 10797 788 10307 743 9564 711 8643 702 8260 686 8424 674 8366 667 7110 661 5987 660 5247 672 5409 678 5327 678 5167 673 MAY JUN 2368 2408 2860 3122 3625 3551 3679 3497 3284 3085 2968 3024 3066 3424 3636 3615 4010 4371 4807 5053 5187 5187 5220 5327 6026 8571 10777 12110 12760 12470
13880 13890 13900 13607 13227 12440 11803 12627 13600 13907 14397 14947 15170 15147 JUL 11613 10323 9241 8193 8230 9118 9783 10077 10267 10733 11397 11943 12480 13050 13587 14063 14527 14263 14037 13420 12087 10820 10317 9840 9469 10258 11387 13133 13950 14603 15593 JUL 3914 4004 4821 6571 7235 8306 9650 10807 11347 11790 11730
17457 17273 16873 17240 18107 18787 19787 19497 17773 15997 15227 15300 15780 15957 AUG
12937 12917 13517 13793 13513 13280 13440 13567 13070 12387 12463 12997 13380
4913 4513 4172 3950 3748 3551 3385 3231 3155 3103 2996 2847 2756 2680 OCT
1832 1949 1995 1941 1880 1813 1797 1760 1741 1725 1696 1664 1632
1294 1281 1270 1249 1238 1232 1226 1219 1219 1215 1206 1200 1180 1160 DEC 1872 1960 2017 2037 2090 2060 2157 2190 2160 2127 1925 1765 1728 1672 1624 1579 1573 1509 1494 1494 1488 1477 1473 1467 1426 1400 1386 1360 1345 1332 1313 DEC 2070 2020 1984 1952 1933 1917 1888 1856 1824 1797 1768
1988 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
APL 727 721 715 712 708 702 695 690 681 668 657 651 645 631 625 622 616 610 612 613 613 616 619 637 665 723 757 761 735 717
SEP 16607 17107 17423 17540 17440 17107 16940 16673 16257 16080 15943 15903 15970 16307 16163 16210 16107 15567 14647 13037 11283 10450 8776 7377 6449 5731 5253 5080 5013 5213
NOV 4700 4304 3968 3700 3492 3359 3192 3038 2870 2736 2612 2512 2436 2360 2308 2260 2212 2163 2206 2404 2412 2556 2660 2560 2476 2372 2252 2143 1947 1880
1140 1120 1100 1080 1059 1039 1018 997 987 981 976 971 966 961 955 950 945 1044 935 931 926 921 921 916 916 911 907 900 890 880 872 FEB
865 855 845 836 826 819 812 805 800 798 794 789 784 779 773 761 749 739 733 727 721 715 712 709 706 706 714 712 709
710 719 721 717 715 759 799 809 794 780 775 771 785 797 788 776 753 743 731 721 714 708 702 695 704 739 757 751 745 739 733 MAR 1110 1115 1110 1105 1100 1093 1080 1059 1054 1042 1031
706 703 703 710 709 702 699 699 706 715 711 696 687 687 702 706 694 708 801 944 1347 1488 1462 1450 1471 1696 2481 3122 3061 2791 2544 MAY 1013 1028 1095 1180 1302 1477 1549 1522 1437 1352 1251
18970 21663 23713 24600 25050 23650 21213 17543 14777 12417 13400 13320 12937 12670 12607 12500 13037 13320 13350 13037 12317 12500 12307 11890 12263 12813 13473 14123 14817 15413 15970 AUG 13793 16567 17873 19717 20877 21963 22413 21177 19010 17090 15170
5716 6232 6743 6893 7052 6344 6040 6024 6184 6048 6448 7152 7685 7527 7927 8975 9165 9051 9669 10090 10343 11480 12327 12163 11687 10820 9536 8100 6985 5917 5133 OCT 12587 11750 10597 9850 8918 8909 8899 9004 10807 13157 12990
1989 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1302 1283 1258 1243 1234 1232 1224 1211 1198 1188 1180
APL 882 889 899 904 907 908 913 918 921 910 902
JUN 1744 1536 1424 1392 1377 1709 1755 1645 1645 1685 1859
SEP 8085 8018 8690 9336 9441 9127 8652 9488 10562 11307 10963
NOV 7152 6376 5881 5591 5167 4727 4390 4148 3962 3812 3636
1052 1042 1031 1021 1011 1000 992 981 976 971 966
126
Mtr.No.158204
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1177 1173 1168 1160 1157 1148 1138 1128 1122 1115 1110 1105 1100 1095 1090 1085 1080 1076 1071 1066 -
961 959 955 995 1037 1044 1041 1035 1033 1028 1028 1026 1023 1018 1032 1062 1085
1021 911 1011 921 1000 914 997 897 992 877 985 855 981 827 969 800 959 788 948 783 938 786 929 791 919 791 913 788 910 793 902 900 899 997 894 1007 889 1016 885 MAR APL 932 942 952 966 983 999 1021 1005 1021 1075 1122 1168 1190 1202 1192 1183 1272 1661 1968 1800 1497 1392 1375 1443 1557 1640 1821 1909 1984 2060
1178 1105 1069 1170 1145 1080 1019 990 954 1059 976 981 1083 1285 1322 1422 1597 1613 1744 1819 MAY
1907 1885 1851 1840 1805 1757 1723 2203 3404 4780 5532 5664 5355 4920 4288 3684 3321 3391 3771
11800 11997 12553 12203 11920 12047 12307 12360 12150 11667 11357 10857 10089 8985 7735 6613 5665 5020 5449 10984 JUL 17023 16490 17007 18057 18323 18350 17823 17073 16307 16307 16957 17407 17473 17007 16490 16290 16290 16407 16523 16840 17307 17707 18073 18597 19490 19790 19033 18350 17857 17657 17723 JUL 10420 10477 10983 11293 11460
13663 12637 11873 11250 10550 10343 10477 10950 10920 10963 12710 13433 13730 13257 12577 11250 9877 8795 8018 7927 AUG
10950 10413 9564 8861 8286 8481 9289 9327 8985 9593 10097 10297 10230 9821 9498 9374 10232 11560 12607
13247 13570 13580 13513 13497 13190 13130 12367 11727 12027 13380 13870 14650 15220 14830 13483 12080 10473 9279 8164 OCT
3487 3337 3192 3103 2991 2870 2764 2672 2604 2536 2488 2440 2392 2364 2320 2272 2213 2150 2110
1736 1704 1672 1653 1637 1624 1592 1560 1541 1525 1512 1488 1462 1448 1435 1422 1411 1390 1377 1364 DEC 1803 1776 1741 1725 1696 1664 1635 1624 1627 1632 1624 1608 1576 1549 1533 1518 1494 1469 1456 1456 1450 1443 1452 1462 1456 1441 1424 1398 1373 1358 1345 DEC 2344 2316 2272 2232 2208
1990 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEB 1049 1044 1044 1039 1033 1030 1030 1039 1046 1054 1054 1049 1046 1044 1039 1031 1021 1011 1000 990 979 971 966 968 978 987 990 997
JUN 2204 2516 3117 3131 3167 3647 3844 4940 7110 8365 8890 9327 9697 9669 9507 9450 9355 8852 8152 7968 8431 10001 11500 12513 13933 14887 16233 16873 17223 17390
SEP 8871 8322 8227 8110 8795 8709 8135 7743 7660 8265 8633 8614 8453 8135 7718 7518 7418 8844 12730 13950 14183 13690 13320 12957 13133 12450 12037 11613 11440 11637
NOV 3572 3471 3396 3279 3131 3010 2996 3075 3173 3192 3216 3353 3264 3038 2884 2728 2588 2500 2404 2320 2236 2160 2110 2060 2053 1984 1952 1907 1864 1837
1354 1347 1341 1334 1326 1315 1300 1288 1275 1262 1249 1236 1213 1190 1170 1150 1138 1128 1118 1108 1098 1090 1085 1080 1074 1069 1064 1059 1054 1054 1049 -
990 987 981 992 1013 1054 1127 1180 1158 1125 1115 1118 1127 1127 1090 1035 1007 995 979 969 950 932 924 916 911 908 907 908 918 929 926 MAR 985 974 955 943 935
2140 2190 2143 1923 1813 1744 1645 1560 1494 1443 1392 1360 1296 1223 1221 1471 1821 1635 1430 1464 1744 2353 2500 2249 2026 1997 2186 2592 2732 2552 2300 MAY 932 950 999 1218 1619
17873 18660 20430 20127 18393 16890 14527 12617 10940 9926 9412 8956 8766 8966 9327 9926 10260 10380 10360 10230 10113 9574 8766 7993 7343 7110 7160 8037 9431 9631 9279 AUG 14847 12967 11973 12327 13503
12907 13277 13870 14720 15363 15113 14770 14587 14647 15137 15207 14973 14707 13860 12840 12183 10950 9869 8985 8043 7285 6727 6144 5693 5160 4820 4547 4298 4064 3879 3732 OCT 11107 10597 9850 8985 8093
1991 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 1332 1309 1296 1296 1302
FEB 1105 1098 1088 1080 1074
APL 852 862 877 889 897
JUN 2018 2295 2508 2724 3068
SEP 13550 12130 11077 10203 9241
NOV 6453 7410 8633 9070 8599
127
Mtr.No.158204
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1309 1315 1315 1322 1328 1328 1322 1296 1277 1251 1236 1224 1211 1198 1192 1187 1178 1168 1160 1153 1143 1133 1128 1117 1110 1110 -
1071 1069 1076 1085 1087 1097 1107 1110 1105 1095 1088 1078 1067 1054 1046 1039 1037 1030 1023 1020 1011 1004 995
932 931 929 928 934 947 957 966 971 966 947 940 940 937 935 931 924 919 914 908 902 892 880 870 862 857 MAR
914 923 940 980 1142 1371 1443 1441 1409 1337 1236 1185 1155 1135 1108 1069 1028 988 959 929 907 902 897 892 915
1811 2029 2130 2160 2476 2760 2800 3021 4945 5627 4987 4445 3679 3290 3057 2963 2773 2520 2304 2205 2177 2120 2037 1952 1872 1885 MAY
3887 4166 4873 5517 5343 4913 5608 6464 6569 6001 5532 5671 6032 6433 7218 8842 10473 11170 11290 11087 10920 11117 11260 11033 10633
11873 12573 13503 14157 14670 15263 15940 16973 17957 19070 20580 21703 22563 23327 24550 25300 25500 25400 24800 24100 23800 22187 20277 18550 17473 16243 JUL 10078 10323 10340 10507 10830 10757 10610 10420 10550 10930 12020 13173 14253 14277 13310 12587 11863 12253 13257 13983 14110 14140 14060 13773 13527 13290 13017 12637 12853 13110 12503
14170 14480 15080 15553 16283 17023 17457 17873 18073 18090 18133 19563 22077 23400 23203 21737 19527 17890 16740 15363 13443 12840 13257 14043 14503 14687 AUG
9754 10220 10280 10117 10667 11013 11207 10980 12100 13143 13890 13390 12450 11697 11057 10470 10060 10390 11263 12820 12307 11797 11580 11490 11490
8198 9070 10373 11077 10993 11417 11643 12050 12153 13690 13587 13880 14443 14937 15340 15767 15740 15063 13790 12223 10172 8757 7302 6652 6400 5984 OCT
7085 6272 5620 5100 4807 4346 4094 3861 3700 3540 3364 3207 3099 3052 2963 2884 2810 2740 2692 2640 2572 2524 2476 2436 2392
2187 2150 2110 2087 2067 2030 1997 1981 1965 1949 1933 1917 1901 1888 1869 1859 1837 1821 1805 1789 1776 1760 1749 1771 1773 1760 DEC 1968 1973 1952 1920 1901 1885 1872 1864 1856 1832 1800 1768 1736 1688 1635 1597 1560 1528 1512 1499 1486 1473 1460 1443 1435 1430 1424 1418 1409 1396 1384
1992 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEB 1432 1424 1420 1413 1405 1400 1398 1405 1418 1437 1450 1437 1422 1409 1396 1384 1371 1360 1362 1371 1356 1345 1332 1320 1309 1304 1307 1315 1307
APL 1499 1462 1437 1405 1362 1334 1315 1300 1290 1290 1281 1268 1256 1243 1230 1217 1204 1195 1190 1185 1180 1201 1251 1264 1256 1251 1245 1240 1234 1230
JUN 1795 1680 1576 1494 1450 1418 1384 1347 1313 1272 1294 1354 1366 1362 1341 1317 1336 1426 1568 1691 1773 1792 1779 1723 1731 1848 2207 4152 7368 9222
SEP 9327 8652 8002 7527 6539 5753 5613 5693 5635 5341 5047 4800 4780 4840 5060 5895 7318 7585 7610 7718 7560 7002 6943 6482 6637 6345 6176 7027 7702 7768
NOV 5207 4760 4420 4334 3968 3812 3599 3391 3227 3085 2982 2921 2842 2792 2764 2716 2640 2524 2416 2336 2268 2197 2140 2100 2063 2050 2007 1976 1971 1971
1749 1733 1717 1701 1685 1669 1653 1637 1624 1616 1605 1589 1573 1557 1541 1525 1514 1507 1501 1494 1488 1482 1475 1469 1469 1475 1482 1473 1462 1456 1450 -
1294 1290 1298 1315 1330 1334 1326 1313 1300 1277 1262 1249 1236 1224 1211 1200 1195 1200 1204 1200 1193 1183 1173 1163 1153 1150 1157 1190 1249 1388 1488 -
1217 1204 1193 1185 1180 1173 1163 1157 1150 1147 1142 1133 1127 1117 1095 1074 1049 1039 1049 1054 1047 1039 1049 1128 1461 1896 1968 1987 2027 1963 1893 -
12430 12020 11963 11240 10447 10430 10213 10163 10193 10030 10230 10087 10070 9954 9621 9108 8643 8160 7810 7727 7735 7427 7043 6777 7110 9431 10827 11180 12523 11590 10133 -
8073 9469 10040 9431 8880 8785 8472 8110 7110 6120 5504 5073 5173 4987 4660 5140 5422 6527 8795 9583 9849 10620 10848 11200 10920 10203 8580 7052 6304 5851 5569 -
128
Mtr.No.158204
1993 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEB 1158 1152 1147 1143 1140 1133 1123 1117 1110 1105 1100 1095 1092 1088 1085 1080 1074 1069 1066 1064 1079 1142 1240 1349 1416 1422 1416 1403
MAR
APL 1326 1460 1480 1413 1375 1322 1270 1207 1147 1108 1076 1051 1033 1028 1023 1023 1028 1051 1097 1133 1148 1150 1152 1153 1130 1110 1085 1064 1057 1052
MAY
JUN 1824 1808 2100 2652 2821 2926 3186 3620 4034 4136 4250 4340 4160 4675 5503 4980 5007 5687 5783 5153 5315 8895 10850 11180 11170 10960 10497 9984 9118 8152
JUL 7160 6216 5532 5473 6925 10937 12400 13413 13753 14680 15100 15100 14743 14287 13703 13050 12243 10873 9393 8510 8210 7993 7785 7610 8395 9127 9917 10723 11477 11590 10913 JUL 9973 9678 9175 9575 11580 12160 11343 10013 8581 7960 8077 8135 8202 7993 8719 11417 11943 10703 9822 8728 8185 8370 7927 7652 7435
AUG
SEP 17940 18597 19523 20427 20763 21027 20690 19717 18970 17340 16590 14920 13380 12337 11687 11387 10380 9146 8002 7352 7077 6643 6852 7568 7277 6653 6088 5664 5388 5220
OCT
NOV 4773 4753 4397 3699 2968 2865 2788 2712 2644 2596 2540 2488 2440 2400 2344 2296 2248 2180 2100 2033 1968 1904 1840 1784 1755 1736 1720 1699 1672 1640
DEC 1608 1576 1552 1521 1505 1492 1480 1456 1430 1416 1403 1390 1377 1358 1334 1309 1283 1258 1232 1206 1193 1178 1163 1152 1143 1133 1123 1113 1103 1093 1085 DEC 1120 1112 1092 1082 1074 1069 1069 1064 1051 1037 1028 1028 1025 1021 1018 1018 1013 1013 1007 1009 1013 1013 1013 1007 1007
1371 1358 1347 1339 1326 1315 1309 1304 1296 1290 1283 1277 1270 1264 1258 1253 1249 1245 1260 1309 1350 1360 1350 1320 1281 1251 1226 1203 1188 1178 1168 -
1377 1326 1270 1230 1193 1165 1145 1125 1105 1093 1083 1076 1071 1069 1064 1059 1054 1049 1044 1039 1031 1013 995 983 981 990 1009 1020 1039 1098 1162 MAR
1049 1049 1049 1073 1082 1087 1100 1152 1238 1405 1821 2336 2372 2153 1997 1840 1725 1637 1547 1498 1613 1944 2050 2047 1931 1856 1779 1701 1653 2428 2134 MAY 828 819 843 867 995 1237 1183 1158 1085 1045 978 907 864 838 817 812 828 826 833 816 798 788 782 771 773
10507 10390 10360 10747 11167 12090 12873 13000 13100 13503 13780 13980 14373 14517 14540 14157 13350 12647 12297 11830 11610 11540 11490 11830 12427 13360 14470 15133 15993 16673 17507 AUG 11830 11447 10587 10123 10087 9764 9270 9279 9127 8316 8871 8956 8928 9118 10077 10800 11313 12017 12500 12257 11600 10747 10357 10703 10437
5367 6329 7643 8290 9118 10108 10390 10533 10563 10133 9450 8323 7752 7418 6935 6336 5992 6016 6248 6136 6096 6224 5976 5525 5160 5007 4880 4740 4448 4142 3841 OCT 4947 4613 4389 4493 4533 4807 4747 4641 4540 4653 5255 4880 4403 4382 4395 4567 4587 4214 3732 3417 3024 2755 2568 2448 2312
1994 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1080 1067 1052 1042 1013 1007 1007 1007 1002 1002 997 997 997 992 992 987 987 981 981 976 916 911 910 902 897
FEB 862 857 857 854 849 847 841 838 835 838 838 831 828 823 819 814 809 805 800 798 796 793 791 793 793
APL 987 993 1055 1097 1108 1118 1105 1042 978 905 860 839 814 793 777 755 721 707 695 682 674 665 659 657 654
JUN 837 887 919 990 1002 1009 1016 1071 1160 1296 1379 1411 1411 1707 1936 1963 2532 4320 5935 6677 6743 7018 8118 8709 9355
SEP 12967 12027 11583 11047 10200 8317 7185 6296 6668 6482 6440 6320 6596 7847 8295 7893 7210 7018 5863 5087 4827 4973 5147 5467 6000
NOV 1733 1661 1621 1568 1514 1494 1478 1430 1396 1364 1319 1298 1279 1253 1234 1226 1221 1219 1213 1213 1208 1188 1157 1143 1133
809 814 809 809 806 800 798 794 786 785 785 779 785 787 789 785 779 773 763 753 755 745 745 751 772
129
Mtr.No.158204
26 27 28 29 30 31 1995 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1996 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
892 887 882 926 872 867 FEB 957 948 940 935 931 928 923 921 918 911 902 894 884 877 872 867 862 859 852 852 852 852 847 842 842 842 839 836 826 819 819 FEB 914 905 887 870 860 850 841 826 819 816 809 805 800 799 798 795 794 791 785
797 799 805
814 892 904 874 850 914 MAR
652 646 681 782 822
774 9944 780 10430 785 10420 798 10031 808 9830 817 MAY JUN 1439 1343 1268 1285 1330 1362 1347 1364 1522 1998 2807 4305 6112 6328 5762 5353 5193 5227 5725 6580 7560 8135 8662 9070 9555 10287 10703 10860 11003 12130
7252 7293 8450 10250 11357 11717 JUL 12640 12760 13110 13523 13813 14130 14683 15203 15593 15943 16390 16940 17340 17640 17690 17557 17457 17290 17240 17540 18443 19490 20427 19940 19120 17707 16690 15817 15027 14137 13277 JUL 9336 10993 11757 12253 12543 12700 12770 12917 13267 13483 13570 13650 13400 13130 13070 13217 13120 13170 13170
11007 11957 12357 12530 12400 12923 AUG
6096 6064 5944 5649 5320
2198 2087 2013 1936 1867 1800 OCT
1128 1117 1115 1115 1122
1000 994 983 978 968 963 DEC 2428 2110 1901 1760 1584 1523 1494 1467 1435 1414 1384 1354 1324 1292 1230 1190 1155 1133 1100 1064 1042 1026 1005 997 990 979 969 959 947 938 928 DEC 1264 1238 1217 1198 1183 1168 1158 1143 1130 1108 1097 1083 1067 1056 1041 1026 1016 1000 992
APL 687 685 684 684 684 686 687 689 690 692 693 693 695 696 696 698 696 693 700 708 714 721 721 727 733 739 735 729 727 735
SEP 7168 6544 6328 7468 8842 9526 10460 10650 10503 9802 10760 11457 10483 9621 9089 8481 8110 7768 6918 7468 7027 6561 6529 8567 13640 14180 14563 16340 16890 18007
NOV 2380 2424 2424 2332 2400 2548 2692 2708 2548 2201 2087 2001 2060 2163 2253 2276 2063 2009 1949 1837 1784 1784 1760 1715 1653 1608 2329 3529 3497 2893
814 811 809 806 805 802 799 798 796 794 793 791 790 787 784 783 781 780 779 778 778 776 775 771 769 769 775 779
780 779 778 772 769 765 759 749 743 737 731 723 721 721 721 719 715 713 710 709 708 705 703 699 699 697 694 692 690 690 688 MAR
759 788 796 795 786 791 839 894 907 895 899 954 1025 1135 1160 1093 1035 1016 994 1732 10150 10893 7710 6737 5376 4078 3107 2432 1999 1760 1563 MAY 679 709 739 773 776 784 795 799 797 1078 1405 1317 1313 1441 1448 1426 1540 1981 2143
12210 11570 11357 10943 10420 9851 8778 7852 8327 8842 9042 9175 9355 9889 10833 12677 13783 14303 14837 15340 15460 15400 15273 15147 14633 13977 13317 11977 10427 9270 8198 AUG 10890 10210 10740 12660 13183 12440 11480 10440 9887 9897 9973 10307 10787 11180 12470 13607 13807 12950 11790
17857 17107 16067 14680 13257 11667 10420 9441 10610 11303 11430 10697 9441 8263 7185 6370 5759 5234 4753 4494 4040 3743 3993 4196 3764 3668 3391 3057 2789 2672 2468 OCT 8643 7568 6802 6827 7068 9070 9868 9156 7627 6885 7118 7835 7543 6652 5503 4793 4184 3830 3519
APL 796 845 1116 1362 1396 1249 1120 1005 929 885 838 806 788 749 721 712 705 698 694
JUN 966 1448 2501 2787 2496 2254 1986 1880 1640 1608 1763 1837 1789 1803 1736 1619 1475 1371 1298
SEP 8060 8384 9983 11067 10923 10550 9612 8785 8529 8052 7618 7277 6943 6088 5274 4967 6264 9699 11047
NOV 2137 2197 2256 3233 4640 4418 3939 3353 2945 2732 2572 2408 2253 2050 1941 1848 1773 1707 1645
715 713 710 707 705 700 697 694 691 688 686 684 682 679 675 673 672 668 666
644 647 650 655 665 665 662 657 660 668 665 663 657 650 648 645 644 639 634
130
Mtr.No.158204
20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 1997 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
783 780 779 776 771 763 757 751 745 739 729 721 FEB
662 660 659 656 653 651 650 648 647 645
631 641 660 687 753 767 753 765 775 791 813 826 MAR
691 683 676 669 659 649 642 627 623 617 637
2057 1872 1683 1519 1390 1322 1266 1170 1083 1021 966 943 MAY
1240 1202 1241 1398 1787 2396 2644 3408 5753 7052 7752
13203 13390 13763 14217 14863 15340 15647 16007 15957 15013 13503 12020 JUL 6072 5243 4635 4512 5479 6731 7504 8688 9801 10807 11610 12593 13970 15507 16800 18057 18890 19393 19637 19780 19790 19693 19517 19190 18627 17720 16083 14123 12103 11177 10240 JUL 12923 13440 13787 13740 13640 13550 13460 13610 14123 14470 14783 14977 15157
11063 11487 11987 12170 11963 11583 10880 10933 10114 9384 8814 8189 AUG
10050 8966 7993 9175 10777 11873 12213 12267 11760 10983 10010
3208 2954 2769 2604 2452 2316 2201 2097 2050 2020 2087 2110 OCT
1592 1544 1509 1473 1416 1388 1371 1341 1320 1300 1281
985 974 964 957 947 938 928 919 911 905 890 879 DEC 1625 1612 1593 1585 1569 1540 1511 1489 1473 1449 1425 1407 1388 1380 1375 1383 1420 1399 1369 1324 1289 1281 1268 1263 1260 1252 1241 1228 1212 1185 1169 DEC 2030 2007 1977 1893 1799 1724 1655 1620 1580 1548 1521 1495 1487
APL 898 906 882 840 787 736 701 675 648 640 648 640 627 616 632 640 632 637 603 584 560 552 560 568 579 568 573 552 536 517
JUN 1209 1058 1038 1026 1014 1016 1006 962 968 928 1004 1026 1038 1032 1036 1087 1409 1783 2123 2672 2972 3524 4656 4869 4821 5123 5878 6116 6269 6320
SEP 8912 9813 9336 9392 9576 9953 12103 14243 14077 13140 11333 9341 8048 7840 7191 7376 8176 8240 8384 8416 8512 8416 8960 9995 11620 12153 13393 17540 18990 19623
NOV 2744 2636 2600 2540 2460 2387 2333 2290 2217 2163 2140 2117 2097 2153 2147 2203 2233 2193 2103 2023 1940 1892 1865 1820 1785 1748 1713 1681 1665 1641
1006 996 986 974 968 962 954 942 932 926 920 906 892 886 876 868 860 850 842 836 830 824 816 806 800 792 787 776 771 768 760 FEB
760 752 744 739 731 723 712 704 701 696 688 688 680 680 672 672 669 664 656 651 643 632 624 616 611 608 600 600
592 587 579 576 568 563 555 547 536 528 523 515 507 499 491 488 483 480 472 472 469 464 464 475 509 624 728 818 886 940 922 MAR 856 886 918 918 874 836 816 797 792 784 776 771 763
509 504 504 557 571 576 541 509 496 475 459 445 440 445 483 504 477 451 507 555 603 608 627 741 910 1083 1151 1263 1447 1441 1319 MAY 1172 1177 1156 1086 1050 1002 968 966 938 930 890 848 818
9824 9280 9032 8680 8520 8672 9984 10977 10560 10227 10037 10773 12473 13897 14067 13957 15037 15670 16090 16800 16947 16613 15900 14663 12823 11677 10760 10807 10463 9683 9144 AUG 12803 12400 12107 11863 11770 11967 12307 13210 13897 14303 14817 15230 15527
20200 20200 19440 18157 16333 14257 12280 11827 10887 9408 8816 7696 6936 6327 5896 5506 5120 4773 4491 4219 4000 3797 3624 3476 3344 3204 3112 3024 2996 2900 2788 OCT 5884 5698 5332 4848 4379 4005 3765 3556 3392 3284 3144 3084 3124
1998 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1156 1145 1129 1121 1108 1100 1094 1092 1086 1082 1078 1076 1070
APL 1143 1204 1223 1183 1109 1040 978 930 902 882 870 858 822
JUN 3292 3256 2860 2608 2620 3020 3360 3388 3072 2928 2892 2988 4550
SEP 14413 14567 14990 15887 17067 18227 18957 19223 19477 19573 19583 19320 18703
NOV 3845 3484 3284 3108 2960 2872 2760 2632 2488 2401 2317 2260 2180
1040 1028 1018 1008 996 986 968 944 930 922 912 904 894
131
Mtr.No.158204
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1064 1064 1058 1052 1046 1040 1036 1034 1030 1024 1022 1028 1038 1046 1056 1064 1062 1052 FEB
886 878 858 846 838 828 824 820 812 806 802 800 792 806 820
760 804 760 781 768 768 781 757 824 792 842 834 836 892 830 910 822 920 814 928 801 944 773 944 760 948 736 964 760 1006 892 1062 1026 1112 1066 MAR APL 605 600 597 592 584 595 613 616 608 600 584 576 573 565 560 560 565 563 579 565 557 552 544 544 539 536 536 528 528 528
834 6606 878 7360 970 7273 1028 6826 1012 6496 998 6149 1028 5386 1183 4928 1465 4816 2221 5115 3404 5716 3500 6908 3296 8256 3028 9555 2736 10927 2410 11940 2592 12360 3076 MAY JUN 7608 8888 9605 9544 9248 8480 7119 5716 4757 4107 3536 3364 3212 3096 2960 3108 3444 4309 5560 6313 6249 5794 6319 7458 8672 9941 11527 12193 13020 13537
15503 15887 16347 16920 17440 17800 17960 17987 17947 17907 17787 17320 16720 16047 15430 14773 14087 13403 JUL 13740 14137 14523 14787 15013 15120 15120 14977 14533 13813 12877 11897 10903 10293 10540 11050 11443 11667 13423 13033 13717 14340 14903 15550 15900 16227 16627 17293 17947 18563 18870 JUL 11607 11977 12150 12247 12397 12190 11870
15530 15250 15370 15900 16307 16533 16693 16987 17413 17720 17800 17493 17000 16360 15673 15180 14773 14543 AUG
17960 16373 14280 13537 10119 8336 7108 6797 6379 6147 5698 5428 5608 5524 5214 5959 6077
3164 3060 3268 3248 3364 3384 3220 3164 2924 2972 3751 6287 7464 7592 6885 5806 4891 4235 OCT
2130 2070 2027 1973 1940 1897 1881 1849 1833 1823 1809 1812 1833 1857 1937 1983 2010
1460 1428 1412 1393 1377 1367 1353 1345 1332 1313 1295 1281 1263 1249 1239 1220 1209 1199 DEC 1844 1815 1780 1753 1724 1689 1663 1636 1609 1591 1575 1564 1577 1575 1593 1577 1559 1535 1524 1500 1468 1436 1404 1377 1356 1329 1303 1289 1273 1260 1252 DEC 1943 1957 1904 1852 1820 1809 1791
1999 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
SEP 19767 21127 21217 20130 19540 18937 18360 17640 16733 15890 14363 13093 11960 11087 10337 9707 9376 9368 9320 9539 11327 11593 10677 10557 9877 9328 8760 7968 7656 7488
NOV 5956 5554 5115 5109 5530 6184 5536 5172 4437 3787 3524 3312 3120 2952 2820 2700 2604 2500 2420 2340 2270 2200 2150 2100 2060 2020 1977 1940 1892 1863
1188 1177 1169 1156 1137 1121 1113 1098 1092 1086 1078 1074 1068 1064 1056 1052 1046 1038 1030 1022 1018 1008 1004 998 994 988 980 974 974 968 964 FEB
958 948 934 926 932 912 908 904 898 894 890 884 878 868 860 854 848 844 880 834 828 822 816 812 806 804 800 792
787 784 776 773 768 765 760 755 749 733 720 712 704 704 696 688 680 675 669 664 656 648 640 640 632 629 624 621 613 608 608 MAR 818 804 784 776 768 773 784
520 512 512 493 480 499 501 509 568 595 621 797 850 954 1140 1241 1255 1231 1161 1113 1148 1215 1324 1391 1503 1444 1508 2160 5063 7115 7528 MAY 741 741 776 858 992 1209 1324
18637 17173 14940 12573 11413 10103 9088 8416 9176 9456 9472 9749 10050 10783 11590 12110 13093 13873 14867 15443 16020 16267 16163 15683 15023 14350 15093 15623 15877 17013 18713 AUG 12887 12817 12560 12220 11927 11440 11387
6657 5908 5494 5019 4928 4624 4357 3973 3629 3524 3524 3856 3835 5110 4896 4768 5215 5602 5824 6613 7856 8592 8736 8288 7592 6848 6009 6143 5914 5968 5944 OCT 10069 14807 16420 17533 18443 18603 18267
2000 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1239 1223 1201 1180 1164 1153 1140
APL 789 776 760 752 744 744 733
JUN 3973 4048 4005 3760 3631 3536 3324
SEP 10218 12960 16220 17507 18080 17360 15623
NOV 4880 5115 4843 4448 4080 3701 3424
982 990 992 1004 1026 1032 1036
132
Mtr.No.158204
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
1129 1116 1108 1098 1086 1076 1070 1070 1058 1050 1040 1036 1028 1022 1016 1010 1010 1004 998 992 986 980 974 976 -
1024 1010 1000 986 976 962 962 956 950 942 928 912 900 886 874 860 854 842 842 836 830 824
792 792 802 812 818 816 810 810 812 818 818 826 838 854 872 884 896 880 872 872 882 858 830 806 MAR
725 712 704 696 691 683 680 717 755 826 862 844 818 797 771 728 688 659 632 651 675 688 720
1436 1636 1780 1745 1641 1543 1460 1364 1284 1215 1156 1111 1064 1034 1113 1295 1809 2073 2193 2492 2592 2303 2800 3636 MAY
3164 3136 3124 3052 3501 4400 5353 8304 9901 11323 11973 12133 12647 12547 11993 11253 10487 9509 9771 10090 10347 11047 11387
11320 10903 10580 11060 12813 13980 14340 14270 13833 13237 13127 13680 14123 14197 13947 13547 13140 12890 12830 12873 12767 12720 12637 12693 JUL 6090 7640 10073 11893 11603 10337 9509 8752 8392 8000 7488 8024 8968 9739 9792 9584 10112 11007 11723 11947 11510 10880 10680 11173 11880 11460 10453 9648 9528 9845 9877
11537 11600 11630 11687 11657 12053 12330 12273 12160 11957 11713 11600 11750 12370 13670 14110 13943 13297 12470 11827 10101 9016 8032 8512 AUG
13740 12457 11753 11120 10337 11077 12623 12937 13190 14133 16960 18520 18253 18013 17493 16680 15960 14927 13333 11887 10507 9539 8784
17533 16487 14810 12957 10927 9400 8432 7337 6701 6108 5746 5494 5284 5040 4821 4683 4416 4149 3931 3829 3909 4037 4315 4608 OCT
3232 3096 2976 2888 2828 2768 2700 2556 2456 2360 2290 2200 2177 2160 2130 2073 2043 2000 1960 1930 1920 1910 1910
1767 1732 1700 1679 1652 1623 1604 1585 1561 1548 1535 1516 1503 1484 1460 1449 1431 1409 1391 1377 1364 1356 1343 1329 DEC 2037 1970 1917 1881 1857 1825 1801 1777 1751 1721 1708 1689 1671 1641 1625 1604 1588 1569 1551 1529 1508 1492 1471 1452 1433 1420 1404 1396 1377 1361 1345
2001 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEB 1046 1044 1040 1036 1034 1028 1026 1022 1018 1012 1004 1000 994 982 976 968 964 958 950 938 930 922 916 908 900 892 886 878
APL 600 592 592 587 589 600 608 608 608 600 600 600 608 608 600 581 568 563 555 541 520 512 520 539 560 584 605 592 565 557
JUN 1583 1973 2431 2544 2688 2764 2988 3932 5500 6351 7520 8304 8472 7648 6899 6584 6701 6716 6584 6650 6577 6044 5770 6459 7816 8592 7808 7077 6193 5596
SEP 12630 11623 10720 9699 9200 9408 9739 10507 11137 10327 9835 10180 10560 11107 11073 10460 10187 9627 9528 9480 9685 9931 9536 9272 8400 7720 7221 6936 6613 6313
NOV 4480 4965 5374 5374 5320 5029 4528 4123 3787 3468 3372 3556 3492 3376 3204 3068 2964 2780 2632 2520 2520 2476 2420 2397 2340 2297 2213 2167 2120 2090
1316 1308 1292 1276 1271 1255 1244 1231 1215 1204 1188 1180 1172 1169 1159 1151 1140 1132 1124 1116 1105 1094 1088 1082 1076 1068 1064 1064 1058 1052 1046 -
870 862 858 854 848 860 884 888 866 836 812 789 771 757 736 720 717 707 696 688 683 672 656 648 648 637 624 616 616 608 600 -
544 544 536 528 536 544 544 619 810 906 914 912 942 1006 1121 1471 1743 1860 1809 1684 1577 1428 1321 1284 1217 1185 1159 1140 1193 1212 1364 -
10167 10613 11120 11823 12547 13570 13893 13897 12173 10337 9040 7632 6665 7049 6467 6966 7159 6540 6203 6481 7504 8000 7408 6936 6819 7952 9192 10015 11400 12837 13393 -
6159 5890 6196 6973 7251 9184 10900 11283 11273 11167 10583 10497 9793 9168 9304 9573 8976 8408 7816 7688 7632 7196 6965 6606 5884 5362 5077 4811 4555 4267 4315 -
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2002 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
FEB 1092 1127 1151 1172 1156 1137 1113 1094 1086 1070 1058 1058 1046 1038 1026 1006 986 960 942 930 920 914 908 908 918 902 896 896
MAR
APL 744 739 728 720 725 771 816 832 830 828 812 792 768 749 736 723 720 712 704 696 696 704 701 696 688 672 672 704 768 824
MAY
JUN
JUL 6287 5584 5506 6317 7244 7472 7320 7648 8536 9008 9600 10350 10933 11603 11543 11723 12027 12170 12080 11527 11020 10433 10647 11640 12767 14077 15443 16057 17333 18370 18820 JUL 9877 10793 11720 12913 13943 14733 15517 16467 17387 18000 18340 18447 18380 18153 18027 18107 18230 18330 18197 17840 17253 16327 15710 15037 14160
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV 2648 2496 2452 2432 2373 2290 2220 2187 2177 2167 2097 2043 1987 1950 1927 1900 1892 1884 1884 1879 1857 1828 1804 1783 1743 1703 1687 1663 1647 1644
DEC 1623 1609 1593 1580 1564 1540 1524 1500 1489 1468 1449 1433 1417 1401 1388 1380 1364 1340 1316 1300 1292 1284 1273 1260 1252 1244 1236 1228 1228 1220 1212 DEC 1772 1756 1700 1647 1593 1556 1548 1529 1511 1492 1476 1465 1449 1425 1409 1388 1372 1361 1340 1329 1321 1308 1292 1276 1284
1332 1321 1305 1289 1273 1257 1244 1233 1220 1220 1212 1201 1193 1183 1177 1164 1156 1156 1148 1140 1132 1121 1108 1100 1092 1082 1076 1076 1076 1076 1074 -
890 890 890 884 878 876 872 866 862 854 848 840 830 830 826 828 816 804 812 789 781 787 768 779 752 755 744 736 728 728 736 MAR
836 1883 824 1788 800 1815 781 1836 760 1788 752 1748 749 1660 755 1641 789 1729 862 1721 926 1705 956 1761 936 1825 926 1836 910 1807 902 1772 922 1880 980 2163 1345 2852 1777 3767 1748 4901 1700 5818 1735 6335 1655 7287 1617 9251 1505 10707 1439 10590 1596 9999 1983 8544 2110 7150 2033 MAY 994 1022 1010 1028 992 962 962 966 1000 1040 1052 1060 1070 1058 1044 1040 1064 1066 1106 1343 1308 1220 1247 1257 1444 JUN 1428 1417 1401 1460 1793 1983 2073 2330 2183 2193 2896 4187 4773 4944 5072 5083 5083 5404 5788 5836 6279 6687 6247 6120 6870
18900 8320 18870 7488 18840 7068 18543 6613 18273 5986 17813 5350 16933 4971 15733 4944 14050 4939 12227 5443 11090 8176 9866 10153 10793 10227 14050 8984 16550 7479 18593 5614 20037 4667 22437 4613 23957 4688 23167 5321 20397 4965 19840 5196 19537 5848 19203 5968 18453 6951 17347 7199 15177 8128 12997 8544 11860 10047 10211 9120 9152 AUG 9499 12780 14530 15057 14783 14400 13763 12603 11150 9563 8512 7680 7480 7632 7688 7848 7992 8200 9176 10163 11150 12017 11693 11077 9983 SEP 7688 8760 10017 11267 11720 11870 12423 12687 12233 12077 12273 11833 11193 11157 9780 9120 8240 7552 7090 7456 7568 7424 7400 8328 8488
8136 7832 8808 9336 9488 9016 8032 7280 6496 5710 4955 4320 3947 3631 3508 3488 3480 3909 3925 3600 3456 3372 3312 3384 3576 3548 3384 3324 3304 3124 2868 OCT 6064 6437 6105 5956 6320 6533 6591 6936 7384 7209 6848 6393 6028 6159 7079 7688 7736 7400 6841 6215 5548 5452 5416 4944 4901
2003 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1204 1196 1191 1183 1169 1153 1132 1116 1108 1100 1100 1094 1084 1082 1078 1076 1070 1064 1058 1052 1052 1046 1040 1034 1028
FEB 980 974 968 968 958 956 956 956 938 948 944 944 944 944 938 950 956 956 956 952 944 938 932 932 932
APL 830 824 818 806 800 792 792 781 776 765 752 763 792 814 832 834 818 797 779 763 744 763 814 848 908
NOV 3544 3396 3288 3200 3132 3012 2892 2756 2692 2632 2560 2512 2456 2416 2363 2300 2247 2207 2140 2093 2040 2000 1973 1933 1887
922 920 914 914 908 906 902 902 902 896 890 890 888 884 878 878 872 866 864 854 854 848 840 836 830
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26 27 28 29 30 31
1022 1012 1002 994 992 986 FEB
932 926 926
832 818 848 844 836 830 MAR
986 1030 1086 1052 1014
1500 1543 1500 1495 1468 1428 MAY
6848 6364 6379 7792 9016
13450 12790 12473 11507 10027 9056 JUL 10603 9328 8624 7904 7576 7856 7592 6863 7127 7624 9264 10990 12373 13910 15410 16627 17787 18583 18830 18810 18713 18530 18607 18893 19423 19660 19730 19617 19570 19550 19470
8960 8344 7696 7054 6591 6863 AUG
8384 7672 6929 6577 6217
4923 5266 4827 4336 3968 3744 OCT
1847 1828 1812 1796 1788
1287 1292 1284 1276 1265 1249 DEC 1697 1665 1652 1636 1625 1601 1577 1540 1513 1497 1460 1428 1417 1396 1377 1361 1348 1332 1321 1300 1289 1265 1241 1217 1204 1193 1172 1161 1140 1132 1124
2004 JAN 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
APL 611 624 648 704 712 712 691 680 664 669 691 709 787 810 814 824 840 892 1046 1500 2223 2988 3468 3376 2992 2724 2293 2063 1877 1687
JUN 3040 2856 2664 2544 2524 2460 2572 2868 3877 4928 4960 5279 6031 7068 6701 6082 5800 5452 5104 5040 5560 7802 10293 11563 12073 12130 11987 12143 12010 11603
SEP 7848 8128 8840 9523 10040 10163 10740 11563 12313 13437 13993 14793 16403 17773 17840 18160 18027 17453 16427 15720 14400 13357 12207 10880 9921 9392 9432 9528 9248 8912
NOV 3484 3312 3176 3044 2908 2784 2672 2540 2456 2370 2293 2230 2170 2090 2060 2040 2030 2010 1990 1980 1960 1933 1887 1852 1799 1764 1740 1732 1724 1708
1228 1212 1196 1172 1161 1156 1156 1148 1145 1132 1121 1105 1092 1080 1068 1056 1046 1040 1034 1028 1020 1010 1008 998 992 990 980 974 972 962 960 -
950 944 942 936 932 928 926 920 918 912 908 904 896 888 880 878 870 862 852 844 834 826 816 802 800 792 784 779 768
760 760 752 749 741 736 728 720 712 704 696 688 688 680 680 672 672 664 656 648 648 640 640 632 624 624 616 613 608 608 608 -
1601 1495 1412 1324 1236 1156 1099 1058 1044 1020 1000 978 952 930 892 944 944 902 1127 1931 2448 3316 4741 5596 5190 4496 3781 3408 3428 3328 3212 -
18917 17773 16343 14160 12387 11687 11163 10823 11500 12800 13693 13403 12923 12233 11353 10123 9653 10349 12007 11487 11230 10440 9248 8424 7688 6958 6921 6775 6643 6555 7157 -
8240 7856 7840 7568 7039 6767 6379 6797 9325 11177 12103 13043 13570 13813 13653 13043 11880 10707 9963 9408 8880 8192 7325 6569 5800 5245 4789 4453 4192 3920 3717 -
(Source :Department of Meteorology and Hydrology) Table 2. Mean Annual Temperature of Different Stations (C) Station Yangon New Deli/Palam Bangkok Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 28 27.42 27.64 28.42 27.27 27.17 27.34 27.75 27.63 27.63
23.92 24.69 26.13 25.52 25.55 27.88 26.76 26.23 26.15 28.63 29.43 29.62 28.48 28.79 29 29.22 29.23 29.34 29.13
(Source: http://tutiempo.net/en/Climate/asia.htm)
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Table.3 Monthly Mean Temperature of Chindwin Basin at Monywa Station (C) STATION : MONYWA YEAR JAN FEB 1975 20.6 23.5 1976 20.1 23 1977 20 23.5 1978 23 23.7 1979 21.1 23.7 1980 21 21.5 1981 21.4 24.5 1982 21 22.8 1983 20.2 23.7 1984 20.1 24.2 1985 21 22 1986 21.4 24.2 1987 21.4 23.7 1988 22.1 24.3 1989 19.5 23.1 1990 21.5 23.8 1991 20.4 23.6 1992 19.2 21 1993 19.2 22.9 1994 22.3 23.6 1995 21.5 23.9 1996 21.5 24 1997 20.9 22.8 1998 22 24.7 1999 21.9 26.2 2000 20.9 22.5 2001 21 24.5 2002 22 25.7 2003 21.2 24.6 2004 22.3 24.7 2005 22.4 26.2 " * " data not available
MAR 27.8 26.8 28.4 26.5 27.4 28.5 26.8 27 26.9 27 28.3 27.7 25 28.4 27.5 26.4 29.6 26.9 26.9 27.5 26.8 27.4 28.3 27.9 28.5 25.8 27.9 28.9 27.9 29.5 28.8
APR 31.7 31.1 29.1 31 32 33 28.7 30.7 30.8 31.3 31.6 31.2 30.4 32.2 30.5 30.6 30.8 31.7 30.3 31.4 31 30.3 29.4 31.3 32.6 30.7 32.1 32.1 32.1 30.6 32.4
MAY 31.4 30 29.4 31 34.6 32.6 31.1 32.9 32.8 30.7 31.2 32.9 32.7 32.6 32 31.2 31.6 31.5 30.5 33.4 32.5 31.6 32.8 32.7 29.9 29 30.1 31 30.8 32 33.3
JUN 29.6 29.8 31 30 32 29.8 29 30.5 32.1 29 30 32 31 29.6 30.3 31.3 28.9 26.1 29.8 30.9 32.1 29.7 32 33 31.4 29.9 30.3 31.6 30.3 30.3 31.9
JUL 28.9 29.8 30.4 28.7 30.5 30 30.1 31.5 32.3 30 30.1 31.1 31.1 32 30.3 30.8 30.5 29.9 31.6 30.7 30.6 30.1 30.7 31.9 31.5 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.6 30.7 31.6
AUG 28.6 29.1 28.8 29.2 29.5 30.2 30 29.8 30.4 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.6 30.5 29.3 31.1 29.8 29.2 30.2 29.7 30 28.9 30.3 31.8 29.9 30.5 30.4 29.1 31.1 31.3 30.9
SEP 28 29.5 27.9 28.2 29.5 28.9 29.9 29.9 30 29 29.2 28.6 29.2 30.1 29.6 28.8 28.9 28.4 28.2 29.3 29.1 28.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 28.5 30.4 29.2 30.2 29 29
OCT 27.9 27.3 25.8 27.5 28.2 26.6 28.7 28.9 27.7 28 29 27.6 28.3 28.8 27.7 28.8 27.2 26 27.6 28.2 28.5 27.5 28.3 29.4 28 27.2 28.2 28.9 29.2 28.8 29
NOV 23.8 25.5 24.8 25 27 25.9 24.8 25.1 23.7 24.3 24.3 24.5 26 23.5 24.2 26.9 23 22.7 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.4 26 26.5 24.4 23.9 25.3 25.6 25.9 26.1 25.8
DEC 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.1 21.7 22.5 21.1 21.8 20 22.2 22 21.6 21 22.4 20.7 21.9 20.1 18.2 22.8 20.9 15.7 23.8 22.6 23.1 20.8 20.9 22.8 22.1 23.6 22.9
(Source :Department of Meteorology and Hydrology)
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Table.4 Annual Rainfall of Chindwin Basin Year 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Rainfall (mm) 2268 1855 2149 2285 1479 2252 2077 2208 2115 2328 2184 1897 2350 1980 2271 2228 2301 2346 1902 Year 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Rainfall (mm) 2409 2496.9 2293.4 2427 2542.6 2023.4 2048.6 1969.6 2362.1 2206 2258.6 2004.4 2221.3 2032 1855.2 2036.5 1968.5 2152 1327
(Source :Department of Meteorology and Hydrology)
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Fig.1 Hydrograph of Chindwin River at Monywa Station

30000 Daily Discharge (m3/s) 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Tim e Step (day) 2500 3000 3500 4000
Hydrograph 1974 - 1985
30000

25000 Daily Discharge (m3/s) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 Tim e Step (day) 2500 3000 3500 4000
30000

25000 Daily Discharge (m3/s) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Tim e Step (day) 3000 3500 4000
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Appendix- D Frequency Factors and Useful Tables for Distribution Functions

Table.1 Frequency Factors for 3-Parameter Lognormal Distribution Cumulative Probability, P (%) Coefficient of Skew, -1.00 -0.80 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 50 2 0.1495 0.1241 0.0959 0.0654 0.0332 0.0000 -0.0332 -0.0654 -0.0959 -0.1241 -0.1495 80 5 -0.7449 -0.7700 -0.7930 -0.8131 -0.8296 0.0000 0.7449 0.7700 0.7930 0.8131 0.8296 90 10 -1.3156 -1.3201 -1.3194 -1.3128 -1.3002 0.0000 1.3156 1.3201 1.3194 1.3128 1.3002 95 20 -1.8501 -1.8235 -1.7894 -1.7478 -1.6993 0.0000 1.8501 1.8235 1.7894 1.7478 1.6993 98 50 -2.5294 -2.4492 -2.3600 -2.2631 -2.1602 0.0000 2.5294 2.4492 2.3600 2.2631 2.1602 99 100 -3.0333 -2.9043 -2.7665 -2.6223 -2.4745 0.0000 3.0333 2.9043 2.7665 2.6223 2.4745 Corresponding Return Period, T (year)
(Source: G.W Kite Frequency and Risk Analyses in Hydrology, 1977) Table.2 Frequency Factors for Pearson Type III Distribution Cumulative Probability, P (%) Coefficient of Skew, 50 2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.0000 -0.0167 -0.0333 -0.0499 -0.0664 -0.0828 -0.0990 -0.1151 -0.1310 -0.1467 -0.1621 80 5 0.8416 0.8363 0.8303 0.8234 0.8157 0.8072 0.7980 0.7880 0.7773 0.7659 0.7537 90 10 1.2816 1.2917 1.3009 1.3089 1.3159 1.3218 1.3267 1.3304 1.3330 1.3345 1.3349 95 20 1.6448 1.6728 1.6996 1.7254 1.7501 1.7735 1.7958 1.8168 1.8366 1.8551 1.8723 98 50 2.0537 2.1070 2.1595 2.2112 2.2619 2.3117 2.3603 2.4078 2.4541 2.4991 2.5428 99 100 2.3264 2.3997 2.4727 2.5453 2.6172 2.6884 2.7588 2.8283 2.8968 2.9641 3.0303 Corresponding Return Period, T (year)
(Source: G.W Kite Frequency and Risk Analyses in Hydrology, 1977)

Appendix-D Frequency Factors and Useful Tables
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Table.3 Useful Data of Gamma function, () = ( -1 ) ! 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.16 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.24 () 1.0000 0.98884 0.97844 0.96874 0.95973 0.95135 0.94359 0.93642 0.92980 0.92373 0.91817 0.91311 0.90852 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32 1.34 1.36 1.38 1.40 1.42 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.50 () 0.90440 0.90072 0.89747 0.89464 0.89222 0.89018 0.88854 0.88726 0.88636 0.88581 0.88560 0.88575 0.88623 1.52 1.54 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.62 1.64 1.66 1.68 1.70 1.72 1.74 1.76 () 0.88704 0.88818 0.88964 0.89142 0.89352 0.89592 0.89864 0.90167 0.90500 0.90864 0.91258 0.91683 0.92137 1.78 1.80 1.82 1.84 1.86 1.88 1.90 1.92 1.94 1.96 1.98 2.00 () 0.92623 0.93138 0.93685 0.94261 0.94869 0.95507 0.96177 0.96877 0.97610 0.98374 0.99171 1.00000
(Source: Wittenberg Hydrologie Vorlesungsunterlagen, 2004)
Table.4 Parameter , A and B for Extreme Value Type III Distribution Coefficient of Skew, -1.00 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
65.63043 26.26360 16.30207 11.73785 9.10978 7.39676 6.18962 5.29236 4.59923 4.04809 3.59997 3.22914 2.91791 2.65366 2.42717 2.23149 2.06133 1.91253 1.78181 1.66654 1.56457
A
0.44760 0.44229 0.43629 0.42952 0.42193 0.41343 0.40397 0.39350 0.38198 0.36938 0.35571 0.34098 32523 0.30851 0.29089 0.27246 0.25334 0.23367 0.21360 0.19329 0.17291
B
52.24465 21.47978 13.68443 10.10381 8.03409 6.67757 5.71462 4.99218 4.42770 3.97273 3.59692 3.28029 3.00911 2.77366 2.56682 2.38329 2.21910 2.07116 1.93718 1.81524 1.70391

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Table.5 Frequency Factors for Extreme Value Type III Distribution Cumulative Probability, P (%) Coefficient of Skew, 50 2 -1.0 -0.90 -0.80 -0.70 -0.60 -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.1567 0.1446 0.1321 0.1189 0.1051 0.0906 0.0754 0.0595 0.0428 0.0255 0.0075 -0.0110 -0.0300 -0.0493 -0.0689 -0.0885 -0.1081 -0.1275 -0.1466 -0.1651 -0.1829 80 5 -0.7329 -0.7501 -0.7666 -0.7825 -0.7977 -0.8122 -0.8258 -0.8385 -0.8502 -0.8607 -0.8699 -0.8778 -0.8842 -0.8891 -0.8923 -0.8939 -0.8938 -0.8921 -0.8888 -0.8840 -0.8777 90 10 -1.3134 -1.3215 -1.3282 -1.3332 -1.3366 -1.3382 -1.3379 -1.3356 -1.3313 -1.3248 -1.3161 -1.3053 -1.2923 -1.2773 -1.2603 -1.2415 -1.2209 -1.1989 -1.1757 -1.1515 -1.1266 95 20 -1.8641 -1.8546 -1.8430 -1.8294 -1.8134 -1.7950 -1.7741 -1.7506 -1.7245 -1.6960 -1.6650 -1.6318 -1.5966 -1.5595 -1.5210 -1.4812 -1.4405 -1.3992 -1.3578 -1.3165 -1.2757 98 50 -2.5680 -2.5232 -2.4766 -2.4280 -2.3771 -2.3239 -2.2683 -2.2103 -2.1502 -2.0881 -2.0244 -1.9595 -1.8938 -1.8277 -1.7616 -1.6961 -1.6315 -1.5682 -1.5068 -1.4473 -1.3903 99 100 -3.0889 -3.0089 -3.9282 -2.8465 -2.7634 -2.6788 -2.5928 -2.5055 -2.4172 -2.3282 -2.2390 -2.1500 -2.0619 -1.9752 -1.8902 -1.8075 -1.7275 -1.6506 -1.5770 -1.5071 -1.4409 Corresponding Return Period, T (year)
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University of Lneburg Department of Civil Engineering Water Resources Management in Tropical and Sub-tropical Regions

First Supervisor Second Supervisor

First Supervisor Second Supervisor

: Prof. Dr. Ing. H. Wittenberg : Prof. Dr. Ing. A. Tppe

Chapter 2. Description of the Study. 13

Chapter 3. Literature Review.. 20

Chapter 4. Water Resources in Myanmar .. 32

Chapter 5. Outline of the Chindwin River Basin 42

Chapter 6. Data Description and Analysis of Collected Data 50

Chapter 7. Duration Curve Analysis. 59

Chapter 8. Recession Curve Analysis..66

Chapter 9. Low Flow Frequency Analysis.. 82

Chapter 10. Miscellaneous Approaches........ 95

Chapter 11. Discussion, Recommendation and Conclusion. 104

Table 10.2 Table 11.1

Appendix- B Maps of the Study Area, Chindwin Watershed

Meteorological and Hydrological Data Used in the Study

Frequency Factors and Useful Tables for Distribution Functions

M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

932 - 2831 9210 - 10111

Fig 1.1 Location of Myanmar ( Source: MOAI )

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Climate Major Seasons

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

(Source : United Nations Publication, 1996)

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

(Source : United Nations Publication, 1996)

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Fig 1.5 Isohyetal Map of Myanmar

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Current Water Resources Management Activities

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Irrigation and Drainage

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Irrigated Area ( Million Ha)

Fig 1.6 Irrigation Developments in Myanmar

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Background Problems in Water Sector

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M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Chapter 2. Description of the Study

M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River

Natural Climate Variability Meteorological Situation Persisting anticyclonic pressure systems

High temperature, wind speed, radiation, low humidity etc.

Increased evaporation and transpiration

Soil Moisture Drought

Depletion of groundwater reservoir

Chapter 2. Description of the Study

M.Sc Thesis Low Flow Analysis of Chindwin River