Pakistans energy crisis major hurdle in economic growth: ADB

KARACHI: THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (ADB), IN A REPORT RELEASED WEDNESDAY , HAS SAID THAT P AKISTANS ECONOMY FACES A MAJOR HURDLE IN THE SHAPE OF ITS DOMESTIC ENERGY CRISIS.

The ADB has identified rising inflation, investment decline, low tax revenue and losses at public-sector enterprises as other factors hindering economic growth.

The economy continues to be affected by structural problems, including a domestic energy crisis, a precipitous decline in investment, persistently high inflation, and security issues. Budget deficits remain high, driven by substantial subsidies and losses at state-owned enterprises, and tax revenue below target, says the report.

The ADB sees power as the main constraint for economic growth, stressing for better load-management to minimize commercial losses.

The report adds: Losses arising from power and gas shortages held down GDP growth by 34 per centage points in FY2011 and FY2012. Improved management of power resources could ameliorate predictability of load-shedding to allow the private sector to better schedule work and minimize costs.

For every unit of power sold, there is a loss to the sector reflected in the form of subsidies. An outstanding accumulation of PRs220 billion was carried into FY2012, and an additional financing of 11.5% of GDP is likely to be required in FY2012.

Furthermore, the ADB advises reforms in not only the energy sector but also state-owned enterprises, naming Pakistan Railways, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), and Pakistan Steel Mills as entities suffering the steepest of losses.

The challenge of improving efficiency and putting these enterprises on a viable commercial footing is formidable. Reforms are needed, including a separation of these enterprises from operational interference by government ministries, advises the ADB.

The report adds: The slow growth in recent years was exacerbated by widespread floods in FY2011. Unless progress can be made in resolving these fundamental problems, the growth outlook will stay modest.

5 steps to solving Pakistans energy crisis

March 3, 2012

1.

Are political parties finally taking the energy crisis seriously? If so, I have a few suggestions...

Out of all the problems we face as a country, energy seems to be the one that annoys us the most. Its not that other issues are not important or are somehow less annoying; it is just that every single person in Pakistan uses energy in one form or another and hence is directly affected by it at a very personal level. So when a few days back I was invited as an expert delegate to the PML-Ns energy conference , I was pleasantly surprised that our political parties are beginning to showing signs of maturity and started talking issues.

The conference itself was an unusually serious affair where actual experts sat through a gruelling six hour discussion session on the draft PML-N energy plan. It was for the first time I saw an actual alternative workable policy being presented and discussed by a political party with stakeholders such as academia, power producers and energy experts. All in all, it was a great platform and serious discussion took place that can potentially lead to a solid energy strategy. I later found out that PTI also held an energy conference of its own and presented their draft plan as well.

Even though I would have personally preferred the perspective economic plans to be put forward first, but a start on an issue like energy strategy seems to be pretty good too. This is a national issue and we need all the alternative policies we can get to finally craft a solid national policy and in that regard, political parties putting forward their workable strategies is something the people have longed for.

And in that spirit, I would like to present a few ideas that can help with our energy crisis.

1. Replacing thermal power fuel

Pakistan produces about 81 percent of its electricity through oil and gas which costs us about 9.4 billion dollars. To put it in other terms, that is about 53 percent of our total exports and is the biggest cost on our import bill. Now given that our reliance on thermal power is so large, we simply cannot dismantle it and magically move to hydro power, however we can change the fuel used to gain thermal power. Instead of using oil and gas, both of which are getting more expensive and have volatile international prices, we can move to using coal.

But not the Thar coal, I will explain why later, but imported coal. If we were to import clean coal and use that as a fuel instead of oil and gas, it would cost us less as the price of coal is more stable than that of oil and gas in the international market. This can bring some sort of price stability in our electricity prices that keep changing due to changes in international market prices

2. Moving past the myth of Thar coal

Yes, there is coal in Thar, but assuming that it can be used immediately or it will solve all our energy problems is a myth propagated by a few people and political parties for their personal gains. Experts agree that Thar coal is highly unstable making it difficult to transport it from one location to another and even its gasification is not risk-free.

On location gasification also requires heavy investment, which has practical difficulties due to the unstable nature of the coal deposits. So instead of wasting time and effort on this, we should focus on importing coal to replace the ever increasing oil and gas bill.

3. Improved energy mix

Energy mix refers to the sources of energy we utilize in Pakistan to fulfil our overall energy needs. I need to give credit to the PML-N on this one as they are the first ones to talk of the holistic energy mix and not just the CNG or the electricity crisis.

The fact is that all our energy is interdependent.I have previously advocated that we need to move off CNG as we simply do not have enough of it to supply to all the commercial, industrial and home users. Its about time that any future energy strategy Pakistan is supposed to have comes with a proper energy mix to solve our issues.

We need more hydel plants and renewable energy projects. In the next five years, the aim should be at getting five percent of our total power supply from renewable sources and to also use the nuclear power we are so proud of, to provide electricity. Right now, we are at about three percent power generation from nuclear sources, which have to go up to at least percent. Hence an overall improved energy mix is what can solve our issues in the long run.

4. Stand alone power projects

This is a suggestion that I gave at the conference and I am advocating it now again. About 40 percent of Pakistan is off the national grid; that means they effectively get to no electricity.

The way our grid operates, it is already suffering from heavy line losses and other technical issues, which makes it extremely hard and costly to get 40 percent of the Pakistan on to the national grid. However there are solutions to this.

We can finance independent stand alone power projects that can function in areas where there is no national grid, this way the local communities and businessmen can set up their own energy solutions without taking prior permission from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) like they have to now. This will enable them to set up small scale solar panels and plants in their communities and sell electricity locally. Small wind farms can also be used in areas which are close to wind corridors.

The bottom line is, let the people who are living in areas that dont come under the national grid, do whatever they can to supply themselves with electricity without any government involvement.

5. Dismantle the national grid

The national grid needs to be dismantled and provincialised, because under the 18th amendment, the profits of power generation go to the province that is producing the power, meaning if electricity is being produced at Tarbela, royalties of that are being paid to KP Government by all other provinces. However, they sell it to the national grid and then the national grid sells it down to the District Electrical Supply Companies who further sell the power to the consumers. This way, if there is a shortfall, national grid chooses the electricity supply patterns and hence decides which areas suffer outages the most.

If we dismantle the national grid and change the electricity supply to an open market, where provincial grids can buy energy directly from the source, it would improve the power supply and be more financially beneficial for the power producing province. This way, the provinces with the most issues with electricity supply can simply outbid the others to get enough for their local demand. This would not be privatization but provincialization, and will encourage provincial governments to start doing more for their people instead of relying on the federal government.

This can eventually lead to provinces working harder to upgrade their grids and reduce their line losses as their people would know exactly who to blame if the power goes out. I think it is time we started thinking on these lines given that the 18th amendment has already been passed and provincial autonomy is our future.

I hope our political parties come with their own alternative strategies while taking these points in to account too. Energy crises is a national issue and all possible solutions should be explored to solve it.

CONTENTS IPRI Factfile 2 Preface v 1. Pakistan: Power Crisis Feared by 2007 1 2. Major Energy Crisis Feared 3 3. Pakistans Quest for Energy Security 4

4. Waste to Energy is Needed in Pakistan 7 5. Type of Energy 10

6. Thermal Energy 10 7. Hydel Energy 12 8. Wind Energy 13 9. Rising Oil Prices 15 10. Pakistan Coal Reserves be Explored 17 11. Pakistan Iran Agree on Gas Pipeline Project 17 12. ECNEC Approves Energy Projects 18 13. Energy Crisis in Pakistan-I 18 14. Energy Crisis in Pakistan-II 21 15. Pakistan's Energy Crisis to Worsen in Next Two Year 22 16. Wind Power: Solution to Energy Crisis 23 17. Energy Crisis may go from Bad to Worse 26 18. Asian Development Bank Considering Loan for Small Hydro Projects 27 19. US Advise Pakistan to Purchase Electricity from Central Asia 27 20. Energy Strategy 28 21. Pakistan Urged to Import 4,000MW from CARs 30 22. Fuel Shortage may Worsen Power Situation 32 23. Energy Crisis: Serious and Worsening 33 24. Energy Crisis in Pakistan is Growing Rapidly 35 25. Efficient Household Appliances to Mitigate Energy Crisis 38 26. Coping with the Energy Crisis 40 27. Iranian, Pakistani Presidents Resolve Pipeline Issues 43

28. Ties with Iran 44 29. Power Crisis & Alternate Energy Technology 45 30. Government Calls IPPs Meeting to Tackle Power Crisis 47 31. Competing Firms Complete Feasibility Reports 48 32. Government to Invite Businessmen to Discuss Power Crisis 50 33. Entangled in Energy Web 51 34. Meeting Held to Discuss Pakistan's Energy Crisis 54 35. Government Taking Steps to Overcome Energy Crisis 55 36. Energy Conservation Plan to Combat Shortage 56 37. Demand-Supply Gap Increases Dramatically 57 38. Pakistan Facing Acute Power Shortage 58 Energy Crisis in Pakistan 3 39. Renewable Resources Must to Counter Energy Crisis 59 40. Load Shedding: Part of Conspiracy 60 41. Coal Power Plants to Help Overcome Energy Crisis 62 42 Government to Ensure Indiscriminate Load Shedding: PM 63 43. Pakistan Puts Clocks Forward, Hopes to Save Electricity 64 44. The Option for Solar Power 65 45. Advancing of Clocks Creates Confusion 68 46. Iran can Help Pakistan in Energy Sector 70 47. SAARC Members Asked to Sign Energy Treaty 70 48. Subsidy on Use of Up to 200 Power Units Stays 72 49. Load Shedding becomes a Nightmare for Karachiites 72 50. Severe Fuel Crisis Hits Frontier 74 51. Shortage of Fuel at Petrol Pumps Causing Concern 75 52. Shortage of Petrol Products Tormenting Consumers 75

53. No End to Electricity Meter Shortage 76 54. Peshawar Transporters Threaten to Besiege Oil Depots 77 55. Diesel Shortage Affecting Operation of Tube-wells, Tractors 78 56. Load Shedding Increases as KANUPP Trips Again 79 57. Fuel Stations Run Short of Diesel 80 58. Frequent Power Shutdowns Bringing Grades Down 81 59. New Energy Order 83 60. Power Plants Top Gas Supply Priority List 85 61. Resolving Power Crisis a Priority 86 62. Authority Set Up for Thar Coal Mining 86 PREFACE IPRI Factfile 4 Pakistan is presently facing a serious energy crisis. Despite strong economic growth during the past decade and consequent rising demand for energy, no worthwhile steps have been taken to install new capacity for generation of the required energy sources. Now, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through frequent power shutdowns. Pakistan needs about 14000-15000MW electricity per day, and the demand is likely to rise to approximately 20,000 MW per day by 2010. Presently, it can produce about 11, 500 MW per day and thus there is a shortfall of about 3000-4000MW per day. This shortage is badly affecting industry, commerce and daily life of people. All possible measures need to be adopted, i.e., to conserve energy at all levels, and use all available sources to enhance production of energy. It seems that the government is considering importing energy from Iran and Central Asian Republics and using indigenous sources, such as, hydel, coal, waste, wind, and solar power, as well as other alternate and renewable energy sources, besides nuclear power plants for production of energy. Needless to say that if the country wishes to continue its economic development and improve the quality of life of its people, it has to make serious efforts towards framing a coherent energy policy. The Factfile includes selected articles and news items on the subject appearing in the media from 2nd July 2004 till 10th July 2008. July 10, 2008. Noor ul Haq Energy Crisis in Pakistan 1 PAKISTAN: POWER CRISIS FEARED BY 2007 The country may plunge into energy crisis by the year 2007 due to rising electricity demand which enters into double digit figure following increasing sale of electrical and electronic appliances on lease finance, it is reliably learnt Thursday. The country may face energy crisis by the year 2007 following healthy growth of 13 per cent in electricity demand during the last quarter, which will erode surplus production in absence of commissioning of any new power generation project during this financial year, informed sources told The Nation. As per Pakistan Economic Survey 2003-04, electricity consumption has increased by 8.6 per cent during first three-quarter of last fiscal year. However, a top level WAPDA official maintained that electricity demand surged up to 13 per cent during last quarter. The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent.

Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled load shedding over a period of two year, sources maintained. The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of load shedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours. According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07. The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW. Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the possible energy crisis and stressed the need for quantum jump in power generation. The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower generation; otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the rise. IPRI Factfile 2 They said the power generation projects, which are due to commission in coming years are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity. They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand. Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to the national grid by June 2007. Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010. Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added. When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert any possible crisis. About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another Rs 5 billion will be consumed on transmission lines. We have been negotiating Rs 9 billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power transmission system, he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the country. July 2, 2004 http://www.energybulletin.net/883.htm Energy Crisis in Pakistan 3 MAJOR ENERGY CRISIS FEARED Pakistan is most likely to face a major energy crisis in natural gas, power and oil in the next three to four years that could choke the economic growth for many years to come, official estimates and energy experts suggest. Pakistans total energy requirement would increase by about 48 per cent to 80 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2010 from about 54 MTOE currently, but major initiatives of meeting this gap are far from turning into reality, said a former petroleum minister on condition of anonymity for the simple reason that he had also served the present government. Major shortfall is expected in the natural gas supplies, he said. According to official energy demand forecast, he added, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the countrys energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently. Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, he said, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current demand of 16.8 million tons.

This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, he said. Since the gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, thus increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, he added. Last years oil import bill amounted to about $6.5 billion compared with about $3.5 billion in 2004-05, mainly because of higher international oil prices - a burden expected to be even higher in future as a result of growing Middle East crisis. Current years oil import bill has again been projected by the government at about $6.5 billion on last years average prices, which have started to rise in the recent days. According to the former minister, the government had planned five major initiatives to meet these energy requirements. They included three gas import pipelines, Gwadar port as energy hub and LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines. Planning Commission sources said the government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of capacity expansion. IPRI Factfile 4 However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates were based on gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020, said the sources. The fifth initiative of LNG import was on schedule and would start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015, said the sources. Petroleum ministry officials are not ready to speak on record about gas import options and resultant overall energy shortfalls because of recent political developments on Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline project and security situation in Afghanistan and non-certification of gas reserves in Turkmenistan. According to World Bank estimates, a demand gap (supply shortage) of about four per cent of the total demand, is expected in 2010. Even though this gap would be met by LNG imports, it would again increase to 20 per cent of the total demand. The bank said the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025 while the gas supply-demand gap would rapidly increase as demand is expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025. As per the World Bank estimates, the gas imports will represent almost 67 per cent of natural gas supply in 2025. One can, therefore, gauge the quantum of shortage in case import pipelines are not materialised. Pakistans gas reserves are 32.8 TCF at present, with reserve-production ratio in the order of 27 years, considering that domestic production does not grow substantially. Power sector demand represents 41 per cent of total gas consumption, general industries 24 per cent, fertiliser 7.8 per cent and domestic-commercial 22.8 per cent, cement 1.5 per cent and CNG 2.8 per cent. Demand growth has been up to 8.5 per cent in recent years and is expected to be seven per cent with power industries and domestic consumption accounting for 82 per cent. Gas demand already displays seasonal pattern with national demand growing in winter beyond transmission capacity. Therefore, supplies to large users mainly industries and power plants are curtailed during winter months to ensure supplies to domestic, commercial and small industries. Annual production at present is about 1.16 TCF. Khaleeq Kiani, Dawn, July 28, 2006 http://www.dawn.com/2006/07/29/top16.htm PAKISTANS QUEST FOR ENERGY SECURITY Energy has become an important prerequisite for the economic development of a country. On one hand it is used for the industrial and agricultural purposes and on the other hand it is required for domestic use of the citizens. Natural gas is the fastest growing primary energy source. Globally Energy Crisis in Pakistan 5 consumption of natural gas is projected to increase by nearly 70 percent between 2002 and 2025, with the most vigorous growth in demand expected among the emerging economies. Consumption of natural gas worldwide increases in the forecast by an average of 2.3 percent annually from 2002 to 2025, compared with projected annual growth rates of 1.9 percent for oil consumption and 2.0 percent for coal consumption. The electric power sector accounts for almost one-half of the total incremental growth in worldwide natural gas demand over the forecast period.

South Asia is important to world energy markets because it contains 1.3 billion people and is experiencing rapid energy demand growth. After India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the next largest South Asian countries in these categories. Economic and population growth in South Asia have resulted in rapid increases in energy consumption in recent years. The major energy issues facing South Asian nations today are keeping up with rapidly rising energy demand. Agency for energy consumption has projected that by the year 2010 South Asian countries shall be consuming more than double the current levels of primary commercial energy. Pakistans largest energy source is natural gas, with demand and imports growing rapidly. Currently, natural gas supplies 49 percent of Pakistans energy needs. According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), as of January 1, 2005, Pakistan had 26.83 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven natural gas reserves. Pakistan is looking to increase its gas production to support increasing consumption through Pipelines from Iran and Turkmenistan. Currently, Pakistan ranks third in the world for use of natural gas as a motor fuel, behind Brazil and Argentina. In addition, Pakistan hopes to make gas the fuel of choice for future electric power generation projects. Pakistan ambitiously seeks to increase oil production through new alliances with foreign companies. Pakistans net oil imports are projected to rise substantially in coming years as demand growth outpaces increases in production. Pakistan will see power shortages by 2007 unless actions are taken to increase generation and reduce transmission losses. Pakistan has 18 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity. Thermal plants using oil, natural gas, and coal account for about 70 percent of this capacity, with hydroelectricity (hydro) making up 28 percent and nuclear 2.5 percent. Pakistan's total power generating capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, largely due to foreign investment, ultimately leading to a partial alleviation of the power shortages. Pakistan often faces load shedding in peak seasons. Transmission losses are about 30 percent, due to poor quality infrastructure and a significant amount of power theft. Periodic droughts affect the availability of hydropower. The Government is understandably engaged in a vigorous effort to expand the nations power generation capacity through building of dams and inviting foreign investors for establishing thermal units in the country. The things are, IPRI Factfile 6 however, seemingly getting out of its hand due to the yawning gap between supply and demand of electricity. Coal currently plays a minor role in Pakistans energy mix. However, Pakistan contains an estimated 3,362 million tons, sixth largest in the world. President Musharraf has stated that coal should make up more than the current 1 percent of electric power generation in Pakistan. The Pakistani Ministry of Industries and Production has granted a Chinese company to build two coal-fired power-generation plants to supply 600 MW of electricity. Aside from power plants generated by coal, Pakistan is also working to expand the use of wind turbines. For instance, the Pakistan Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) recently approved New Park Energy Phase I, a 400-MW wind project near Port Qasim. Energy cooperation is the key to regional development. Pakistans government is working on plans to build an Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline that spans from Irans massive reserves to Indian markets across Pakistani territory. Russias biggest gas producer, Gazprom, has recently shown interest in the $7.4 billion pipeline project and has indicated its desire to invest in it. While Iran and Pakistan have made agreements to move forward, India still remains reluctant due to its recent nuclear deal with USA. Iran has offered to cover 60 percent of the construction costs of the pipeline and Pakistani officials have stressed their ability to safeguard the pipeline. Iran will lay the pipeline from Pars to Pakistani border. Islamabad will build the pipeline from the Iranian border to its Central Pakistani city of Bhong in District Rahaim Yar Khan. Both countries have discussed the gas pricing formula, project structure, its feasibility, gas off-take volumes and the gas sales and purchase agreement. In spite of US pressure for not building IPI pipeline, Pakistan remains determined for the pipeline. In fact, in the face of the US pressure against IPI, now two pipelines from Iran are under "active consideration" one for Pakistan and the other for India, through Pakistan. If India participates in IPI project, Pakistan will be entitled to transit fee. But, if Pakistan builds the pipeline from the Iranian to the Indian border, then it will also be entitled to transportation charges. This is the great vision of President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz according to which Pakistan is going to become an energy corridor for China. Islamabads negotiation for a second transnational gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan (TAP) also entered a final stage because experts are of the view that Pakistan's fast growing energy demand requires laying two gas pipelines. Washington supports the TAP project and has assured the pipelines security through Afghanistan. It also holds good prospects for other South Asian users, depending on the size of supplies that Turkmenistan can arrange. The plans to build a third transnational gas pipeline from Qatar to Pakistan and India- Gulf-South Asia Pipeline (GUSA)-seem to have slowed down because of Energy Crisis in Pakistan 7 the gas availability issues. "The plan to import gas from Qatar is not, however, shelved," maintained by Jahangir Khan, spokesman for Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources. With the development of Gawadar Port, Pakistan can provide the trade and energy corridor for the whole region especially to China. In this perspective president has rightly remarked so, When Karakoram Highway was built, the world called it the eighth wonder, and we can create the ninth and tenth wonders by establishing energy pipelines and railway linkages between the two fast growing economies. China and Pakistan agreed to widen KKH for larger vehicles with heavier freight. The rebuilding of KKH will enable China to ship its energy supplies from the Middle East from Gwader Port in Balochistan through the land route of KKH to western China, which is its development hub. This alternative energy supply route will reduce Beijings dependence on the Malacca Straits. Pakistan also wants to set up a crude transit route through Gwader Port for Beijings energy shipments from Iran and Africa. For this reason, Pakistan is building oil refineries, natural gas terminals, oil and gas equipment, and transit facilities in Balochistan. China has agreed to help Pakistan with its plans for the development of its oil and gas industry. With this planned

elaborate energy infrastructure, KKH has assumed an added significance as an alternative land link between China and its energy sources, of which Iran is at the top. The recent Pak-China energy forum in Islamabad was a major step in formulating future strategy to ensure energy security of both countries. Muhammad Munir, Pakistan Observer, 20 May 2006 WASTE TO ENERGY IS NEEDED IN PAKISTAN Growing urbanisation and changes in the pattern of life, give rise to generation of increasing quantities of wastes and its now becoming another threat to our already degraded environment. However, in recent years, waste-to-energy technologies have been developed to produce clean energy through the combustion of municipal solid waste in specially designed power plants equipped with the most modern pollution control equipment to clean emissions. Yet, solid waste management practices differ for developed and developing nations. In developing countries like Pakistan, institutions charged with the responsibility to make decisions on solid waste management, operate in the enormous information, policy and strategy vacuum and lack therefore the ability to address this looming environmental disaster. The perfect case study of information gap in selection of appropriate methodology to dispose municipal waste exhibited by the apex civic authority of Pakistan is when the capital development authority has finally decided to solve the ever-increasing volume of municipal waste by landfill in groundwater IPRI Factfile 8 recharge area. While in developed countries, landfills are now bracketed as obsolete and mines of the future after observing several problems like pollution and contamination of groundwater by leachate and residual soil contamination after landfill closure and simple nuisance problems. This is the very reason why in the United States sanitary landfill techniques have steadily decreased from 8,000 in 1988 to 1,767 in 2002. Extensively focusing on turning waste to energy, municipal authorities in USA have realised the contribution of waste to an increasing electricity shortage. Today in America, 2500 MW are solely generated by the waste-to-energy plants. Many other countries in the world, Sweden, Japan included, have applied this technology since the last 20 years. In the sub continent, India installed three projects to produce electricity from waste with a total capacity of 17.6 MW. Although these made in India power plants are generating electricity by direct incineration, causing pollution and must be upgraded by sophisticated monitoring systems to check pollution. These examples are enough to establish that CDAs ignorance of modern technologies is surely not simply a lack of access to information, but questions the professional capabilities of the planners within its corridors. The site selected for the landfill project is at Kuri, an ancient city of Potwar and its aerial distance is hardly five kilometres from sector G-5, known as the nucleus of Islamabad. Though, in July 2003, the same site was considered for a landfill project but UNDP out rightly rejected and warned that environmental cost would be considerable, besides air pollution, contamination of groundwater if Kuri was selected as a landfill project. JICA in 1988 also compiled a detail investigation report, which established that the area is the recharge zone of the aquifer catering for more than 50 per cent of the twin cities drinking demand. Based on these serious environmental constraints, as its location is up a slope and within the flood plain of Gumrah River, the recharge-basin of the twin cities aquifer, the site was rejected. Recent floods substantiated the finding of all the reports, as the site is definitely within the flood plains of the Gumrah River and would need to be protected on a priority basis, especially as water shortages is now a permanent problem of the twin cities. Whoever selected and approved the site for the disaster of the future, showed ignorance of the above reports and absolute ignorance of the adverse environmental impacts this project would create. Is this ignorance simply unawareness of the planners or is it complete apathy towards anything old, which rejects that Kuri is recorded as an ancient city of the Potowar Region. As CDA is constantly focusing on developing tourist attractions, why not preserve this historical area? Aware of the unprofessional management at CDAs varied directorates one anticipates leachates from the landfills, polluting the amazingly still clean groundwater table, while the wind will carry Energy Crisis in Pakistan 9 waves of leaking gases towards the G-5 Sector, farther adding to the prevalent health hazards of the capital. Access to clean water has been given the top priority flag by the president. Selecting a site along the Gumrah River, known to recharge the groundwater along its winding course through Chak Shehzad and Kanna shows the warped priorities of the planning commission that approves projects, the ministry of interior responsible for CDA affairs and the CDA itself. Had CDA only followed the minutest details provided in the Federal Capital Commission Reports of 1960 by the earlier planners of the capital city, Islamabad today would have been a model for the rest of Pakistan. The CDA ignored the most recent seismic zoning report of the region too. According to EPA US regulations, duly adopted by Pakistans EPA, there should be no significant seismic risk within identified landfill sites. Kuri is within a highly sensitive earthquake zone, according to new seismic zoning maps prepared after the earthquake 2005. An earthquake having a magnitude of 4.2 was recorded on July 7, 1989 and its epicentre was at a distance of 10 kilometres from Kuri. Had the spread of this infectious disease the vacuum of information been contained in time, CDA would surely have been able to diagnose that the estimated cost of two billion rupees for the landfill site, would have sufficed for setting up an energy-to-waste plant in the city. With load-shedding a permanent crisis in Pakistan, adding some extra megawatts through waste-to-energy could have solved many ills in the rapidly growing energy needs.

A vacuum of information has not allowed the CDA to communicate either with the alternate energy development board, established by the federal government in 2003. This board was given the mandate to solve the energy crisis that is facing this country through renewable technologies. Although advertisements in the printed media asked for feasibility studies of waste-to-energy units for ten cities of the country, the twin cities were ignored. Had mutual interactions been part of the government systems, the funds available to the CDA for the ill-fated sanitary landfill, and the technical know-how of alternate energy development board (AEDB), Islamabad could have prided itself of being the first ever waste-to-energy unit in the country today. The decision to construct a landfill project at extremely sensitive areas need not only to be reviewed but also need to empower the AEDB to generate electricity from waste to cope with the energy demand in the lines of international environmental commitments avoiding violation of the Kyoto Protocol and Stockholm Convention. Now decision-makers have to choose whether to allow the CDA to go ahead with the landfill project, to dump waste for adding more pollution and contamination of groundwater or to allow production of environment friendly energy. Arshad H Abbasi, November 9, 2006 http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/waste-to-energy-pakistan IPRI Factfile 10 TYPES OF ENERGY Energy can be differentiated as 1. Kinetic energy 2. Potential energy

Kinetic Energy 1. Sound 2. Wind 3. Mechanical for example moving piston in a cylinder 4. Electrical energy. Electricity, lightning 5. Thermal Energy, Heat, hot water, steam 6. Light , microwaves, x-rays , solar, ultra violet rays

Potential energy 1. Gravitational energy. Hydro power, ball above ground 2. Spring . stretched rubber band 3. Magnetic planetary poles 4. Nuclear , fission, fusion, heavy water uranium

5. Chemical , gasoline, batteries, oil natural gas, gun powder, coal, wood

2007 http://www.energy.com.pk/energytypes.htm THERMAL ENERGY Thermal Energy is the oldest type of energy. With all known history available, Wood was always used for heating and cooking. In 2nd world war fossil fuels entered in the form of coal to get the energy, until liquid fuels were discovered and because of their convenience of transportation they took over as major contributors of the energy source. Once the steam engines were invented then the coal or liquid fuel was burnt in the boilers and the heat produces steam which is used to drive electrical generators, or any other mechanical device. Rudolph diesels invention of diesel engine revolutionaries the energy concept and today we see sine the majority of machines moving on diesel engines. Diesel engines can be 2 stroke or 4 stroke type. They can be in line or arranged in V or even W shape. They can be single acting or double acting. Another method of converting thermal energy to mechanical energy is by the gas turbines. Turbines are also used to run by steam or hot gases which are produced by igniting fuel. Energy Crisis in Pakistan 11 For converting thermal energy to electrical energy alternators are used to drive on constant RPM. The choice of gensets strictly depends on the requirement of the client, before ordering a power plant following points to be considered 1. Expected demand of the power. 2. Type of fuel required 3. Space available for the power plant 4. Avilability of genset 5. Avilability of local service back up and stock of parts 6. Price is paramount importance and hidden expenses should be looked carefully The major manufacturers and suppliers of Gensets based on internal combustion engines are given below 1. MAN 2. Wartsila 3. Caterpillar 4. Jen Bacher 5. Waukesha 6. Mitsubishi

7. Detroit Diesel 8. Rolls Royce Internal combustion engine can obtain 30-50% thermal efficiency. It means that around 50% energy is wasted in the form of exhaust gases , cooling systems and radiation. Therefore for larger plants heat recovery systems are utilized. In Pakistan due to attractive gas prices this is a general trend that gas operated power plants are preferred if gas connections are available. The gas gensets are available from less than 1 MW sizes to 6 MW configuration. Normally they are V type and 12,16 18 and 20 cylinder configuration. In addition some models are available on duel fuel technology which can be operated simultaneously on gas and furnace oil. The price of a 3 MW gas genset can be expected around 1 Million $. However low RPM engines will be more costly Unit cost of fuel on gas genset can be evaluated as follows

Fuel Cost Rs 2.7 (depends upon the genset ) Maintenance Rs 0.20 Lubricating Oil Rs.0.10 Chemical R Rs. 0.02 General stores Rs. 0.01 Labor Rs.0.10 Overhead +Insurance Rs.0.07 Financing 0.20 IPRI Factfile 12 Total Rs. 3.40 The engines which are running the fuel cost is only variable and can be calculated by multiplying fuel cost by a factor of 225. (225 grams / KWHR is an average net fuel consumption expected.) 2007 http://www.energy.com.pk/THERMAL_%20ENERGY.htm HYDEL ENERGY Water flowing in the rivers has kinetic energy. Once they are used to drive the turbine and produce electricity the power generated as Hydel Energy. Power produced by the turbines depends on quantity of water flowing/minute and the head of water available. Mostly river flows by melting glaciers on high mountains. Once the water start flowing in the valleys it changes its head very rapidly. This energy can be converted into electrical energy. Two method are normally used:-

1. Dams 2. Run of River projects. In case of Dams the water flow is restricted by making a huge storage device and the head of water is increased, the water then is allowed to flow by means of gates and pass through the turbines, the head of reservoir level is maintained to provide uniform power, and the water stored in peak season additionally is used for irrigation purposes in dry seasons. In run of river projects the water is diverted through the tunnels and once it gains the head allowed to fall and pass through the turbines and back to river. the water in these projects is continuously flowing and not being stored. Geographical situation is paramount importance in choosing a suitable site for the hydro project and it evolves a very serious time and money consuming study. Once a site is located further detailed feasibility study is required before proceeding any serious effort to start the work. The feasibility study should include following field work. 1. Detailed Mapping of the area 2. Topographic study of the area 3. Seismic refraction study 4. River flow data 5. Weather data containing, Temperatures, pressures, rain humidity 6. Water sampling and testing 7. Environmental study 8. Social impact Energy Crisis in Pakistan 13

9. Wild life and fish study 10. Identification of stake holders of the area 11. Coring and getting samples of the soil at 50-200 meters depth 12. Laboratory testing of the cores samples 13. Tectonic study to evaluate earth quake dangers

2007 http://www.energy.com.pk/hydel.htm

WIND ENERGY Pakistan is facing acute shortage of energy. with 7% increase of its economy this short fall soon to slow down its economic growth and will shatter its dream to become one day a developed country. Most of its energy demand is being met with either Hydro power or thermal units. Pakistan is spending a very large amount of foreign exchange to purchase the furnace. The gas reserves already start depleting and oil markets are sky rocketing. To overcome this shortage Government take a initiative to investigate Alternate energy resources in Pakistan developed Alternate Energy Board AEDB. The Board is headed by Retd Air Marshal Shahid Hamid. identified 50,000 MW energy potential from wind resource Pakistan is blessed with a large resource of wind corridor. Although Pakistan meteorological Department was gathering wind data for quite long time But recently United States provided wind energy map for Pakistan which confirms a strong wind corridor in Sind coastal area. AEDB issued about 80 LOI to the investors List of LOI holders )to develop 50 MW wind farms. Out of which 15 are already issued the land and feasibility reports and financial closings are in progress. The following is a brief road map for developing a wind form 1. submission of proposal by sponsor 2. Review of proposal by AEDB 3. Posting of Bank Guarantee 4. issuance of letter of intent ( LOI ) 5. Feasibility study 6. Generation License 7. Tariff Determination 8. Submission of Performance Guarantee 9. Tariff determination by NEPRA 10. Submission of performance guarantee 11. Issuance of Letter of support IPRI Factfile 14 The first requirement of conducting feasibility study is to install a wind mast. The three major manufacturers of wind data are listed below. This document explains the method for installing weather station. 1. www.wilmers.com 2. www.ammonit.de 3. www.environdata.com.au

Geological, seismic, tectonic and environmental studies will be required along with Digital mapping and topography of the site for preparing a bankable feasibility study. A confirm EPC cost will also be needed for calculation of tariffs.

Some large manufacturers of wind turbines are given below 1. Denmark (27.9%) 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 1 GE Wind, US (17.7%) Enercon,Germany (13.2%) Gamesa, Spain (12.9%) Suzlon, India (6.1%) Siemens, Denmark (5.5%) Repower, Germany (3.1%) Nordex, Germany (2.6%) Ecotecnia, Spain (2.1%) Mitsubishi, Japan (2.0%)

Energy crisis leaves Pakistan textiles in tatters

AFP | 3rd July, 2011 FAISALABAD: Spinning yarn into cloth used to be a path to fortune in Pakistan, but a story of decline encapsulates how far a crippling energy crisis and rocketing inflation are suffocating the economy.

Power cuts sometimes lasting more than 12 hours a day have forced factory owners in the countrys cloth capital Faisalabad to switch off the lights and sell their looms for scrap, leaving tens of thousands of workers jobless.

The country is the worlds fourth-largest producer of cloth and the industry accounts for 60 per cent of export revenue according to official data.

But the shortages are heaping pressure on Pakistans crippled and debt-ridden economy.

Malik Ammanullah Mani, 31, used to be a leading light on the party circuit.

As manager of his familys textile factory, he belonged to a small, rich cabal that regularly graced private members clubs and dined at five-star hotels.

But in the three years since Pakistan returned to elected rule, the energy crisis has steadily worsened amid poor investment and rampant theft from the grid, causing daily cuts and a sharp rise in the cost of power.

Inflation has also hit the price of thread leaving Mani no option but to sell most of his familys weaving looms.

Electricity and yarn prices have become unaffordable, for most of the time there is no power to run our looms, so we had to sell half of them to a scrap dealer, Mani told AFP as other workers sat idle in his closed factory.

The former rich kid now works a loom in his fathers factory and says he gets by on pocket money of just 500 rupees ($6) a week.

In good times, I was manager and distributing wages among my workers. Now I myself work on the looms we have left because I have nothing to pay workers, said Mani, kitted out in a black t-shirt and jeans covered in chemical marks.

Faisalabads textile district has now become a haven for metal dealers who buy looms from closing factories and sell them as scrap.

Those dealers warehouses are filled with broken machinery while workers wait idle in weaving factories, plunged into darkness until the power resumes.

Industry leaders in Faisalabad, which is situated in Pakistans most populous province of Punjab, say the shortage of electricity and gas has forced hundreds of units to shut down, with unknown numbers more in line to fall.

Almost 800 units of a total of around 2,000 factories in Punjab province have closed down and many more are likely to be shut, said Sheikh Abdul Qayyum, former head of the citys chamber of commerce and a factory owner.

Around 500,000 workers lost their jobs in the province about 100,000 in Faisalabad alone due to the closure of the factories, he said.

The country faced a total shortfall of 7,739 megawatts of electricity in the peak summer month of June, before monsoon season, while the overall shortfall in the gas supply to industry is around 400 million cubic feet per day.

The authorities manage the shortages by cutting supply for hours at a time to industrial and domestic users.

Towns and cities across Pakistan are rocked by daily summer protests against the crisis and the governments perceived inaction, sometimes leading to violent clashes with riot police.

Despite a wealth of natural resources, Pakistan produces only 80 percent of its electricity needs and even some of that comes from imported fuel.

Lack of political will, bad governance and administrative inabilities pushed us into the crisis. If the situation stays the same, I have no hope things will improve, said Fazlullah Qureshi, former top bureaucrat at the countrys planning commission.

Punjabs industrialists blame politicians for exacerbating the crisis, accusing the government of giving preferential treatment to the textile industry in southern province of Sindh, the home of President Asif Ali Zardari.

A constitutional clause approved by parliament last year gives each province first right to use the natural resources they produce, putting Sindh ahead of Punjab in the queue for gas, which in turns fuels electricity generation.

We want a uniform policy in the country as everybody should share the burden and opportunities, said Shabbir Ahmed, a senior member of Faisalabads chamber of commerce.

But the prospect of respite is so remote the Water and Power Development Authority acknowledged last week that power cuts would continue for at least another seven years.

A Pakistani man prepares threads at a textile factory in Gujrat late on April 9, 2009. AFP Photo