Professional Documents
Culture Documents
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 207,316 0.9 1,279/903 202,784 1 17,097 5,201 TCS.BO TCS@IN
`1,059 `1,276
12 months
For 4QFY2012, TCS reported a modest set of numbers, in-line with streets expectations on the revenue and operating fronts. Management sounded confident of growing higher than the industry and expects FY2013 to be a normal year (as against Infosys, the guidance numbers of which indicated growth to be higher in 2HFY2012). Also, management indicated that revenue from BFSI will pick up from 1QFY2013 and signed three of the six large deals in the BFSI industry during the quarter. TCS continues to remain our preferred pick along with HCL Tech in the IT pack. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 4QFY2012, TCS posted revenue of US$2,648mn, up 2.4% qoq, on the back of volume growth of 3.2% qoq. However, the companys pricing declined by 1.9% qoq. In INR terms, revenue came in at `13,259cr, up 0.4% qoq. EBITDA and EBIT margin declined by 149bp qoq and 155bp qoq to 29.5% and 27.7%, respectively, due to increased SG&A expenses and INR appreciation against USD, which overshadowed the positive impact due to higher productivity. PAT for the quarter came in at `2,932cr, aided by other income of `108cr vs. `92cr loss in 3QFY2012. Outlook and valuation: Management indicated that it will hire 50,000 gross employees in FY2013 and has already extended offers to 43,600 campus graduates, which is a healthy number and gives confidence about the demand environment being witnessed by the company. TCS bagged six large deals in 4QFY2012. Management sounded confident of surpassing Nasscoms industry growth guidance of 11-14% yoy for FY2013. Over FY2012-14E, we expect TCSs revenue to post a 15.4% (USD terms) and 16.5% (INR terms) CAGR. The company has announced wage hike of 6-8% for offshore employees and 2-4% for onsite employees. On the EBITDA and PAT front, we expect the company to post 14.9% and 14.2% CAGR over FY2012-14E. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 14.9x FY2014E EPS. We value TCS at 18x FY2014E EPS of `70.9 with a target price of `1,276 and maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Key financials (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2010* 30,028 8.0 6,873 32.9 28.9 35.1 30.2 9.9 32.8 28.8 6.6 22.9 FY2011 37,324 24.3 8,715 26.8 30.0 44.5 23.8 8.2 34.3 32.0 5.4 17.9 FY2012 48,891 31.0 10,636 22.0 29.5 54.3 19.5 6.4 32.7 32.8 4.0 13.7 FY2013E 57,189 17.0 12,359 16.2 29.3 63.1 16.8 5.1 30.5 31.0 3.4 11.5 FY2014E 66,329 16.0 13,871 12.2 28.7 70.9 14.9 4.1 27.7 28.8 2.8 9.9
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.0 7.2 14.0 4.8
3m 2.1 (1.8)
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 13,259 6,924 6,336 2,424 3,912 240 3,672 108 3,780 817 2,962 30 2,932 15.0 47.8 29.5 27.7 21.9
3QFY12 13,204 6,860 6,344 2,252 4,092 230 3,862 (92) 3,770 854 2,916 29 2,887 14.7 48.0 31.0 29.2 22.0
% chg (qoq) 0.4 0.9 (0.1) 7.7 (4.4) 4.1 (4.9) 0.3 (4.3) 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 (26)bp (149)bp (155)bp (8)bp
4QFY11 10,158 5,378 4,779 1,691 3,089 212 2,876 224 3,100 677 2,423 42 2,381 12.2 47.1 30.4 28.3 22.9
% chg (yoy) 30.5 28.7 32.6 43.3 26.7 13.0 27.7 21.9 20.7 22.3 (29.2) 23.2 23.2 73bp (90)bp (62)bp (100)bp
FY2012 48,891 25,877 23,014 8,599 14,415 904 13,511 404 13,915 3,169 10,747 111 10,636 54.3 47.1 29.5 27.6 21.6
FY2011 37,324 19,937 17,387 6,189 11,198 721 10,477 532 11,009 2,174 8,835 120 8,715 44.5 46.6 30.0 28.1 23.0
% chg (yoy) 31.0 29.8 32.4 38.9 28.7 25.3 29.0 26.4 45.8 21.6 (7.3) 22.0 22.0 49bp (52)bp (44)bp (145)bp
(%)
2.9 4QFY11
Pricing decline and cross currency negative impact of 1.87% qoq and 0.97% qoq, respectively, partially offsetted the positive impact of volume growth of 3.26% qoq, which led to INR revenue growth of 0.42% qoq.
2 0.42
(%)
0 (0.97) (1.87)
(2)
(4)
Volume
CC realization
Pricing
31.0 23.1
29.7 24.3
14 7 0 (7) Volume
8.0 1.1 (1.2) FY2012 Forex movement (0.3) (4.2) Effort mix shift onsite FY2011 Total revenue growth (0.9)
Pricing
TCSs performance during the quarter was backed by healthy demand seen across industry segments such as retail and distribution, manufacturing and hi-tech, revenue of which grew by 4.1%, 3.7% and 4.1% qoq, respectively. Revenue of BFSI, TCSs anchor industry segment, remained almost flat qoq due to delays in ramp-ups of discretionary spending, but management expects this to pick up from 1QFY2013. The company signed three large deals in BFSI during 4QFY2012. Other segments such as telecom, media and entertainment and lifesciences and healthcare registered revenue growth of 2.4% qoq each. Revenue from telecom has started to pick up and management has indicated that it is witnessing transformation deals in the telecom industry, majorly in emerging economies, and expects revenue from this segment to pick up from now on.
% chg (qoq) (0.2) 3.7 2.4 2.4 4.1 (0.3) (5.1) 2.4 4.1
% chg (yoy) 13.2 24.3 7.3 18.0 31.7 11.9 (2.5) 12.9 31.1
Service line wise, BPO and asset leveraged solutions emerged as the primary growth drivers for the company by posting 9.0% qoq and 5.1% qoq growth in revenue, respectively. Revenue from application development and maintenance (ADM), engineering and industrial services and infrastructure services grew by 3.3%, 2.4% and 0.5% qoq, respectively.
% chg (qoq) 3.3 (2.3) (1.2) (1.6) 2.4 0.5 (1.3) 5.1 9.0
% chg (yoy) 13.6 1.1 20.2 23.0 13.1 34.8 51.7 27.8 17.0
Geography wise, growth was witnessed across all geographies, except Continental Europe. Revenue from developed economies such as U.S., Latin America and U.K. grew by 3.0%, 2.4% and 3.8% qoq, respectively. Emerging economies such as India and Asia Pacific posted 3.6% qoq and 3.7% qoq growth in revenue, respectively.
82.4
83.2
83.1
82.0 80.6
78 76 74 72 70 4QFY11 1QFY12 Including trainees 2QFY12 3QFY12 Excluding trainees 4QFY12 76.2 75.1 76.4 74.0 71.3
For 4QFY2012, utilization level including and excluding trainees declined by 270bp and 140bp qoq to 71.3% and 80.6%, respectively, due to strong hiring done in 2HFY2012. Improvement in utilization level from here on is an important margin lever for TCS now as utilization level (including trainees) is off ~550bp from its peak level.
Margins decline
TCSs EBITDA and EBIT margin declined by 149bp qoq and 155bp qoq to 29.5% and 27.7%, respectively, due to increased SG&A expenses and INR appreciation against USD, which overshadowed the positive impact due to higher productivity.
28 27 26 25 24
4QFY11
1QFY12
EBITDA margin
2QFY12
3QFY12
EBIT margin
4QFY12
EBIT margin witnessed a 120bp and 71bp qoq negative impact due to increased SG&A expenses and INR appreciation, respectively. These negative impacts offsetted the positive gains of 36bp qoq on account of increased productivity. All in all, the companys EBIT margin declined by 155bp qoq during the quarter.
(bp)
(75)
(150)
(225)
Rupee dep/(app)
Productivity
SG&A increase
Total impact
(BP)
0 (100) (200) (300) (400) FY2012 (289) Rupee dep/(app) Effort shift offshore Pricing and productivity SG&A efficiency Higher wage Total impact (106) (215) (44) FY2011
250 65 62 54 19 8 969 39
Management sounded confident of surpassing Nasscoms industry growth guidance of 11-14% yoy for FY2013. Thus, growth momentum for the company is expected to remain intact. Accordingly, over FY2012-14E, we expect TCSs revenue to post a 15.4% (USD terms) and 16.5% (INR terms) CAGR. The company has announced wage hike of 6-8% for offshore employees and 2-4% for onsite employees, which will be a major headwind for the companys operating margin in FY2013, but management indicated that EBIT margin would remain flat yoy in FY2013. On account of tailwinds such as 1) healthy USD revenue growth, 2) headroom to scale up utilization levels and 3) SG&A expense optimization, we expect the company to absorb the impact of wage hikes gradually. We expect EBIT margin to be at 27.4% for FY2013 from 27.6% in FY2012. On the EBITDA and PAT front, we expect the company to post 14.9% and 14.2% CAGR over FY2012-14E, respectively. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 14.9x FY2014E EPS. We value TCS at 18x FY2014E EPS of `70.9 with a target price of `1,276 and maintain our Buy rating on the stock.
Price
25x
21x
16x
11x
6x
10
Note:* in US GAAP
11
Note:* in US GAAP
12
Note:* in US GAAP
13
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio(x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios(x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 7.2 71 7.2 80 7.6 86 7.3 86 7.3 86 28.8 41.5 32.8 32.0 41.1 34.3 32.8 43.3 32.7 31.0 42.8 30.5 28.8 42.2 27.7 0.9 1.0 0.3 1.1 1.3 33.3 0.8 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.3 34.8 0.8 1.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 33.0 0.7 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 30.9 0.7 1.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 28.0 35.1 38.8 11.0 107.0 44.5 48.2 23.4 129.8 54.3 59.0 28.1 166.2 63.1 68.7 22.2 207.1 70.9 77.3 22.2 255.7 30.2 27.3 9.9 1.0 6.6 22.9 7.2 23.8 22.0 8.2 2.2 5.4 17.9 6.1 19.5 18.0 6.4 2.7 4.0 13.7 4.8 16.8 15.4 5.1 2.1 3.4 11.5 3.8 14.9 13.7 4.1 2.1 2.8 9.9 3.0 FY2010* FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E
Note:* in US GAAP
14
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
TCS No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
15