4/2/2012 Definition of Political Party o Textbook: A group of candidates and elected officials organized under a common label for

the purpose of attaining positions and public authority o Wikipedia: A political organization that seeks to attain and maintain political power within government, usually by participating in electoral campaigns o Key Concepts in any definition: Group/Coalition Formal organization Exists to win elections (this allows them to influence government) Political Parties o Have ideological goals, but exist to win elections Other goals are secondary to winning 3 Parts of Political Parties o Parties in the government Within Congress, parties organize themselves to accomplish party goals (majority leader, majority/minority whip) o Parties in the electorate People who have no role in government, but who support a party Behaviors of the party are expressed largely by the behaviors of these people o Parties as organizations Connect the people to the government Provide services to the elected in government Raise money to serve the interests of the party History of Political Parties o No constitutional standing because parties did not exist when the constitution was written o Recognized in federal law o Parties developed endogenously within the government o US Democratic Party is the oldest party in the world Political Parties in Theoretical Sense o Political Science puzzle Why do some systems only have two major political parties while others have 3 or more? US: 2 parties Israel: 12 parties o Q: What is the difference between? Multiparty system (more common) 2 party system (less common) o A: Elections to national legislature Single Member Districts: there is a set number of districts, winner is elected by plurality rule in each district Creates a 2 party system Proportional Representation: People vote for a party, party decides who will fill up their % of seats Creates a multiparty system 2 Systems

Different incentives to people interested in starting their own party PR: easier to get in legislature SMD: harder to get in legislature

1 v

2 Conservative Median

Liberal Both Liberal and Conservative would have one vote

Liberal -

Conservative

Median #1 would win because conservative voters would be split between #2 and #3 In a PR system: Starting #3 would increase the number of conservatives in the legislature In SMD system: Starting #3 will not increase conservative influence, and liberals would be the plurality winner Two Parties o Strategic entry Party vs. constituency o Strategic voting Sincerity (i.e. proximity) vs. strategy Voters know supporting #3 damages the prospects of conservatives winning, so they will vote for #2 Duvergers Law: o Prediction that in a single member district system decided by plurality rule 2 major political parties will emerge Systems in the World o Started in UK o Multiparty systems are from elsewhere Two Party System Exceptions o Two party duopoly is the equilibrium Would not change without a huge change or shock Ex. Republican Party replacing the Whig party between 1856 and 1860 Third Party Trouble o Democratic and republican dominance creates obstacles for a 3rd party Ballot Access Australian Ballot o Government prints the ballots o Lists names of all candidates Rules on how to get your name on ballot Varies by state

Ballot Access o Ballot access is central to success Cannot win if you are not a choice o Tennessee requirements: 25 signatures $50 Party nominee must receive 5% of the vote in previous election to be listed as a party o Texas requirements: Signatures of 1% of voters in last gubernatorial election (~50,000) Party nominee must receive 5% of the vote in previous election to be listed as a party o Alabama requirements (more practical ballot access): Republican/Democratic nominees have automatic ballot access Minor party candidates must be nominated and collect 3% of voters signatures (~41,000) 3rd party is forced to spend more money, time, and effort and dem/rep

Politicians work hard to keep opponents off the ballot o Can only vote at polling places o Vote in secret Campaign Finance

4/4/2012 Definition of Interest Group o Text book: any group that is not a political party organized to influence government o Wikipedia: a private organization that tries to persuade public officials to act or vote according to group members interests o Ura: an organized group of individuals, firms, or institutions that attempts to influence public policy in a manner consistent with its members preferences or interests Key Concepts in a Definition o Group o Organized Occupy Wall Street is not an interest group o Influencing those in office rather than holding office Distinguishes interest groups from political parties Interest Groups o Lobbying: something that interest groups do o Grassroots: bottom up organization; build from people o Astroturf: top down organization; wealthy person/organization pays for a fake grassroots o Fire brigade: single issue with a short focus Formation of Interest Groups o Process of formation of interest group is a rational choice function Rational Choice o People make choices consistent with their preferences, no matter what those preferences may be o People want to maximize their benefits and minimize their costs Previous Examples of Rational Choices o Hotelings Spatial Model: RC theory of voting o Prisoners Dilemma: RC model of interaction between two people o Single Minded Seekers of Reelection: RC model of preferences

Formation of Interest Groups o Mancur Olson: (1971) The Logic of Collective Action Says interest group formation is difficult because of free rider problem Free Rider Problem o Seen before among states and members of Congress o In interest groups Interest groups exist to make change policy to make a public good People will want to avoid the costs of participation in the interest group, but they still want to benefit from the public good Why Do People Join Interest Groups? o Turn the public good into a private good Emotional satisfaction: warm fuzzy feelings for helping out Solidary incentives: warm fuzzy feelings for being part of a team Selective incentives: private tangible benefits (t-shirt) Benefits of a T-Shirt o Selective incentive because it is a tangible benefit o Makes you feel like part of the team o Gives you emotional satisfaction Interest Group Formation is a Ration Choice Function o Costs and benefits are not uniformly distributed o Some interests are more likely to organize then others Different Types of Interest Groups o Business are more likely to form communities where participation can be monitored o Public interests have large, less resourced pool of potential members Interest group community skewed toward business interests o True at national and state level

4/9/2012- Notes courtesy of Stephanie Philips

First dimension: Procedural Democracy o Institutions designed to translate majoritarian into public policy Usually associated with voting, election, legislatures, political parties o Factions and interest groups become important when you are the majority Seen as a threat Interest Groups and Faction o Focus on special interests of members not the general welfare o If a groups interests converge with general welfare you wont need the IG Classic view of Interest Groups o bad for democracy Pluralism o Robert Dahl How does the government actually make decisions? Policy making- city charters, state and federal constitution cant tell how it works just by looking at the documents have to talk to the people o Who governs? Study of New Haven, CT School policy, e.g. School board, PTA, admin., teachers union Trying to understand how the school board deals with business of creating public policy People not on the school board have an effect on the policies heard and made Pluralist Democracy or Pluralism o Whole new idea about democratic government o Policy made by conflicts and compromises among organized interests Most of the decisions do not show up in an election Some decisions are made by board and others are affected by interest groups (i.e. PTA) Pluralism in Environmental policy o Coal mining o Auto makers o Unions o Technology o Environmentalists o Consumers Pluralism o Small policy changes Not a big swing in policy, even when a new party takes office or majority of the house o Interest groups are key o Elections secondary Democracy by interest groups Critiques on Pluralism o E.E. Schattschneider The Semisovereign People Not all interest groups are represented equally o Precedes Olsen, but notices many more business lobbyists than others The story of a fight in Harlem At the end of WWII J-Day White and black soldier got in fight and NYCPD beat up black soldier Crowd gathered and outnumbered police Had the crowd joined in on the fight, the black soldier would not have been carried away in hand cuffs o He says this is how politics works

Audience can determine the outcome Voters can push the elected official and IG into what the voters want as opposed to what is best for the IG o The flaw is that pluralism is about conflict and compromise but its not a fair fight o Solution: audience to become involved Who is the audience US How can we get involved Political parties Responsible party government o Parties make clear policy platform o Elections render public judgment o Future elections hinge on extent to which commitments are executed Social Science o Do interest groups matter at the national level? Data Witko- compare the association between campaign contributions and congressional voting across two sets of issues: high salience and low salience Low salience issues provide opportunities for IGs to matter Witkos analysis shows swings of about 17 votes per low salience bill, decisive in 2 of 10 cases analyzed Big pictures o Neither pluralist heaven or pluralist hell o Parties fail to provide strong platforms o IGs matter at the margins on some issues o Democracy muddles through

4/11/12 Democracy is a reciprocal relationship between the government and the people o Government should respond to the people o People should monitor and react to the government Old democratic theory that democracy is hard o It demands a lot of the public People need to be informed, thoughtful, and engaged Early Survey Research o 1940s-1950s: Advancements in transportation, communication, computing, and statistical theory Made it possible to see if the public was living up to the democratic ideals Early Findings o Public does not know much about politics o Public is not good at connecting information and ideas to their choices (voting) o America is doomed People are not living up to the demands of democracy Examples of Americas Doom-nation o Berlin Airlift (1948): People did not know Berlin was surrounded by Soviets Germany split Berlin surrounded by Soviets Soviets barricaded Berlin Berlin is supplied by air planes

Nixon Recognizes Red China (1972): People did not know that China was communist Chinese civil war Nationalist Chinese leave main land China One China Policy: world will only recognize one government of China Nationalist China is recognized as the government of China Nixon recognizes communist China or Red China on the main land o SALT Treaty (1979): People do not even know US and USSR were in this treaty Strategic Arms Limitations Treaty Soviets and US both have been building nuclear arsenals SALT imposed a limit on the size of these arsenals Democracy and Political Science o If You believe that democracy places high demands on the people o Then Democracy is in bad shape o Because Lack of civic competence in the surveys o Ignorance result is typically persistent Why Democracy is at Risk o Democracy requires a good memory of political facts o These facts shape the attitudes (expressed in the surveys) o Attitudes shape behaviors (expressed in votes) RAS Model o Principle memory based approach o Represents how people use political information to make choices and decisions o Receive People are surrounded by a flow of political information Amount of information varies by the persons Interests Education Socioeconomic status Cultural background Information can be biased depending on who they watch/listen to o Accept/ Remember People choose to remember or forget information May forget information if speaker is not credible Perceptual screen: screen out certain information based on the minds tendency to minimize cognitive dissonance Cognitive dissonance: competing or clashing beliefs o Between RA and S Considerations: information that is saved in long term memory Considerations are not a good sample of all information available; rather they are Biased by information flows and acceptance process Skewed because they are more favorable to one than another Small if they are politically ignorant

Samples When a person is in a conversation, they will talk about a sample of information that is pulled from their pool of considerations This sample is different information each time Ability to sample is not uniform The mind will weigh the sample of information to form an attitude for the purpose at hand Political attitudes are not constant because the mind is acting on that sample of information Samples from Small Consideration Pools People will out a lot of information do not have much to sample from Their attitudes can be quickly changed by exposure to new information Non-answers: answers given on basis of small set of information Biased Sampling Sample of available considerations is not random Can be manipulated by the context Framing effects: asking a question in a different way Ex. Gay Rights o last paragraph of a survey is swapped out o One says to uphold traditional values got less support o Other says to practice equality got more support One sentence biased the expressed attitudes RAS is Important If ignorance is widespread, then non-attitudes are also wide spread Biases make reasonable responsiveness unlikely even for the well informed Prospects for democracy is bad

4/16/12 Revolution in RAS model thinking o Saw that the behavior of the country over all had patterns that looked sensible even though the individuals were seen as insensible Examples of Sensible Group as a Whole o Presidential vote and economic performance When the economy is doing good, the president is liked more For this trend to develop, the people must know information about the economy and how that is related to the president o Mood and Thermostaticism Mood: the measure of how liberal/conservative the public is Pattern develops As government get smaller, country becomes more liberal As government get bigger, country becomes more conservative This back and forth is called a thermostatic relationship Like air conditioning gets cold, shuts off, warms, then turns on, gets cold, and repeats o Presidential Approval Approval rose at 9/11, start of Iraq War, when Hussein was captured Approval declined when country went into recession Again, people must be able to connect events and news into judgments towards government

Puzzle of Macro Politics o Macro politics: politics of the country as a whole o How are sensible patterns arising from individual nonsense? Either something is wrong with the way we are measuring peoples political intelligence political science has approached attitudes and information o Basically, Americans are smarter than the look Americans use more information to develop political attitudes than can be revealed in surveys Online Processing o An alternative to memory-based political attitudes o People will still use information, but they will remember their evaluation of the information better than they will remember the information itself Examples It is easy to remember that you love your mom (the evaluation) but you do not remember all of the reasons why you love her (the information) You know you disagree with Obamas job as president but you cannot list all of the reasons why In these examples: RAS Model would say that you are an idiot with a nonatttitude OP Model would say that you cant judge from surveys o People use information to update attitudes even if they will not recall the information later o Online Processing Experiment Scientist made up candidate for office People read about the candidate Scientist asks whether or not they likes him and why People do a good job of forming an opinion and remembering the reasons why immediately after reading the articles Time passes People remember less and less information about the candidate but they still remember their evaluation of him o Non-attitudes might be real, but surveys wont reveal the information bases of political attitudes o OP vs. RAS OP okay for most of the time because you do not need to know much information to make an evaluation for most decisions Gut rationality: as long as I know what I like, then I can make good choices to match my opinion Keeping score (running tally) doesnt allow for much in depth consideration or evaluation o Big Picture Americans are on average, not idiots Americans are not idealized democratic citizens Democracy can function, but with some biases and inefficiencies

4/18/12 Voter Turn Out o Off year elections (without a presidential election) have fairly steady turnout of 40% o Presidential elections have a steadily increasing better turnout

Problem with Voter Turnout o Voting: the primary formal mechanism by which public can transmit their preferences to the government Government is constrained to follow these opinions because they want to be elected o In not many people are voting, then the public preferences are not effectively communicated to the government Why Do Few People Vote? o Focus in the individual and their decision to vote or not Rational Choice Approach says: People will make choices consistent with their preferences People want to maximize their benefits People want to minimize their costs Model of Ration Choice for Individual to Vote Models highlight important elements of the complex decision Developed by Riker and Ordeshook Riker and Ordeshook Voting Turnout Model

Reward for Voting

Probability of your Vote Mattering

Benefit of your Candidate Winning

Cost of Voting

Benefits Regardless of Outcome

If Reward > 0, person will vote If Reward < 0, person will not vote Probability that your Vote Matters is VERY small So (Probability Benefit) = 0 or close to 0 o Benefits of your Candidate Winning varies, but is usually small Small because candidates fighting over median voter Usually doesnt matter much because multiplied by Probability of your Vote Mattering (which is close to 0) o Cost of Voting Time to register, information costs, time off work Costs are usually small But still is hard/impossible for some people o Why would anyone vote is (PB)- C is most likely negative? Benefits Regardless of Outcome must be very large! Called civic duty John Aldrich o Gives different perspective on Riker and Ordeshook Model o Says Voting is a low-cost, low-benefit affair That all numbers in the equation are small o Small changes in costs and benefits can influence turnout This will matter across time Model Applied to Whole Society not just an Individual

o o o

o Costs and benefits are not distributed evenly Voter Turnout in Society o Voting is harder for low-status individuals Poor Less educated Non-English speaking Racial minorities Age o Americans that vote are usually wealthier, better educated, and white This matters if People voting have different views that the non-voters Elected officials ignore the non-voter preferences Biases in Voter Representation = Biases in Decisions and Policy Choices o To figure this out you need to see how the government responds to the mood of the non-voters and voters o General Social Survey Data used to examine the mood For the most part, the mood of the voters and nonvoters is the same Conclusions o There is not really a difference between voter and nonvoter preferences o No evidence that Congress pays more attention to voters and nonvoters if anything, Congress pays more attention to non-voters Easier to sway a nonvoters vote Voters are usually stable in political behavior o Forward thinking elected officials have incentives to pay attention to voters and nonvoters

4/20/2012 The Business Cycle o Clement Juglar: economies expand and contract in 8-10 year cycles o Joseph Schumpeter: expansion, crisis, recession, recovery o Examples: Dutch Tulip Mania US Housing Crisis John Maynard Keynes The General Theory of Employment, Money, and Interest o Money must be spent, invested, or hoarded o Spent money: multiplies through the economy (called the multiplier effect) Dollar spent on a candy bar goes to employee and supplier or chocolate who spend money o Invested (Saved) Money: multiplies through the economy o Hoarded Money: does not multiply through the economy o Money that multiplies makes the economy grow Recessions o Happen when people spend/invest their money less and hoard more No one knows what causes the people to do this referred to as animal spirits Paradox of Thrift: people hoard money to protect themselves from a recession, but they are causing one by hoarding their money o Will end when people start to invest and spend their hoarded money o Recessions are about money and can be solved by loosening peoples purse strings

Business Cycle o Inventories back up. o Production slows. Repeats o Credit is more expensive (interest rates go up) o Employment falls o Wages come down o People have less money to spend How to Loosen Peoples Purse Strings: o Put new money into the economy Fiscal Policy Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy o Taxing, spending, and government budget o Create a government deficit- spend more than is collected in taxes Keynes says they are Increase spending and keep taxes the same: Demand-side logically equivalent Cut taxes and keep spending the same: Supply- side Examples of Stimulus Policies: FDR- public works projects Reagan- tax cuts Bush- tax cuts and checks Obama- public works and tax cuts o Problems Debt piles up in long run Keynes: But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. May not work Deficits must be paid back later Monetary Policy o Make more money o Federal Reserve buys US bonds with money that they make new Put new money into the banking system Lowers interest rates Spurs spending and investing o Problems Inflation: dollar is worth less Makes debt contracts worth less Makes savings worth less Hurts people with set wages (sticky wages) May not work Real Business Cycle Theory o Growth and contraction are related to changes in economic inputs for reasons that the government cannot change/prevent o Efforts to fix recessions are only trading current wellbeing for future wellbeing Why do we try? Recession and recovery cycles have psychological origins that are not fully understood

Government actions to restore economy spark economic confidence and encourage growth Voters expect elected officials to do something about a bad economy o Bryan Caplan The Myth of the Rational Voter Average person knows so little about economics that voters favor bad economic policies

4/23/2012 Recessions are about moving money o Money is moved through spending and investing o Government will stimulate spending to get money moving Fiscal stimulus: involves taxing, spending Monetary stimulus: physically producing more money History of Money o Bartering: simple economy, exchange one good/service or another good/service Does not work in a large community with a complex economy Goods/services that one is willing to trade, may not be needed to accepted by another o Medium of Exchange Allows any good/service to be exchanged Represents the value of a good/service in a complex economy Money What to use for Money o Precious metals Do not corrode easily Easy to evaluate for purity Has few other useful purposes Scarce, but not too scarce o Practical problems Heavy Answer to both of these problems is paper money Wears out o Paper money Invented by banks Banks held gold/silver and issued paper bank notes to the people to represent how much gold/silver that person has in the bank Government likes this idea Government and Money o Metal standard: government declares that a certain amount of some metal is equal to a certain number of units of currency (paper dollar) o Government keeps a store of metal, but circulates the paper money o Silver certificates: old dollar bill that said it was a representation of a certain amount of money Problems with Paper Money o Metal standards are inflexible So if an economy is growing, but money is fixed = deflation o Only ways to make new money Discover precious metals Why colonies were important

Mercantilism: colonies collect and make money for empire Change legal value of paper money in terms of amount of metal it represents Metal Standards have been Abandoned o Fiat money: paper money that does not represent a physical amount of gold/silver Government will state how much the paper money is worth o Article 1 Section 8: Congress has the authority to Congress delegates these powers Coin money to the Federal Reserve (1913) Regulate the value of a dollar Fix standards of weight and measures The Federal Reserve Bank o Created by Federal Reserve Act of 1913 o Made is response to the Panic of 1907 when everyone ran the bank o Run on the bank: when people lose faith in the bank and go to take all of their money out Because of fractional reserve, bank cannot give everyone all of their money back o Fractional reserve: part of the deposits are kept in the bank, other money is loaned and paid back in interest The Federal Reserve System o A bank for banks o Clears checks and other transactions between banks o Facilitates liquidity of the banks Makes sure banks have enough cash to meet depositors demands Important Functions of the Federal Reserve o Regulate banks Set reserve requirements o Set interest rates Sets the discount rate: banks can borrow money overnight from the reserve o Control the money supply Open market operations: federal reserve allowed to buy and sell government bonds Buying a bond boosts the economy by putting more money into circulation Selling a bond slows the economy by taking money out of circulation Organization of Federal Reserve Banks o Regional: different regions have input o Hierarchical: different levels under the federal level work with the federal level o 3400 member banks that own stock in the Federal Reserve o 12 regional banks Controlled by a board made up of These 9 choose 1 6 directors chosen by member banks in that region president 3 directors chosen by Board of Governors Board of Governors in DC o 7 members appointed by the President o 5 of the 12 are regional Federal Reserve presidents The Federal Reserve and the Business Cycle o Federal reserve cannot do anything they want Things they do must lead to their goals o Goals Preserve high employment

Low inflation o Problem: these two goals do not go together More money put out for employment will contribute to rising inflation Criticisms o Accountability: Federal Reserve is independent from the government so they are 100% responsible o Elasticity of money o Bubbles o Political influence o Elitism

Federalist 10 Written by James Madison Large republic is more cost efficient Small republic is dangerous, because it is more likely that a faction will be able to take control Elected officials are more refined in a large republic o Had to pass the votes of more people

Predicting Presidential Elections Presidential votes are dependent on o Growth rate of economy o Inflation o Good news Events where the economy did exceptionally well o President running (incumbent or not, vice president or not) o Duration (number of term served as president) 3rd Party can effect the share of the vote is a big way Extra variables that effect vote sharing o Party: opposite party of incumbent gets -1 while incumbent gets +1 o War: +1 if there was a war Makes inflation and good news variables void Electoral college is not considered in the analysis Campaigns to change results, but voting that is being analyzed only those on election day Incumbent party will use the economic business cycle to their advantage Congress is void in this analysis Knowledge of voters is not necessary