DESALINATION

ELSEVIER
Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268 www.elsevier.com/locate/desal

Technical and economic survey of low enthalpy solar installations for heating sanitary water
B. Khiari*, S. Ben Mabrouk
INRST." Institut National de Recherche Scientifique et Technique de Borj Cddria, PO. Box 95, Hammam-Lif 2050, Tunisia Tel. + 216 (71) 430-044; Fax +216 (71) 430-934; emails: Besma.Khiari@inrst.rnrt.tn, Basma.khiari@etud.univ-pau fr Received 13 February 2004; accepted 25 February 2004

Abstract

For the last decade, the energy supplies has become a very preoccupying problem, not only because of the increasing difficulties bound to oil production, but also because it is necessary today to admit that at the scale of our planet the energy resources, fossil-fuel or other, are limited. The solar energy is the only outside energy whose contribution is permanent to the global scale. However, real progress of solar field depends widely on its economic cost. In this context, this investigation focuses on a techno-economic study of a solar power unit for heating sanitary water at low enthalpy. A software program, based on a mathematical model, was elaborated, in order to identify criteria of an optimum use. These criteria take into account, in particular, the technical models, the recent technological innovations and an accurate analysis of the commercial balance (investment costs, actualised values of energy savings, profitability ratio, etc.). The solar installation production is determined by climate conditions, energy demand, collector area, material type and load capacity. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the influence of these parameters, and many others, on the yearly capacity. This paper presents the results of a program concerning water heating in a partial solar central power station. The study aims, on the one hand, to help the fitters and the industrials in the calculation and the design of such plants, and on the other hand, the economists will be allowed to compute the different financial and economic parameters in deal with the solar systems. Keywords: Heating sanitary water; Solar central power installation; Economic cost; Mathematical model; Software survey; Profitability

*Corresponding author.

Presented at the EuroMed 2004 conference on Desalination Strategies in South Mediterranean Countries: Cooperation between Mediterranean Countries of Europe and the Southern Rim of the Mediterranean. Sponsored by the European Desalination Society and Office National de l'Eau Potable, Marrakech, Morocco, 30 May-2 June, 2004. doi;10.1016/j.desal.2004.06.030

260 1. Introduction

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

Stammering in the months which followed the oil crisis of 1973, solar energy entered a faster and more regular mode. It is partly the effect of physical qualities of solar energy: non-polluting, renewable, abundant, but especially it is the result of a favourable political and economic situation: on the one hand, a rise in the price of energy (oil, gas, coal, uranium) and on the other hand, nuclear energy whose costs are increasing and popularity is random [ 1]. Indeed, solar energy is diffuse, hard to concentrate and, consequently, expensive and not adapted to the needs of the industrial megapolis which claims greater quantities of energy. However, it is conceived that true progress of solar energy use will depend to a large extent on technical innovations. But, this is bound to the development of various markets, those resulting from the needs for the developing countries and then those relating to the production of electricity. Solar energy, thus, covers a very composite scope, which goes from simple and well developed techniques, such as water heating, to more sophisticated techniques claiming an important mobilization in know-how and in funds, such as photovoltaic cells, the high-power solar plants, whether on earth or in orbit (satellite solar power systems) [21. In parallel with technical performances of collectors, it is of high interest to measure the social impact inherent to the solar collecting technologies. One of the factors that can motivate the citizens to adopt the hot solar water is its economic competitiveness. Indeed, station longevity is tributary to material qualities, its gauging and its maintenance. The simpler is the system, less are the shut-down periods and therefore, less are the expenses.

of a blackened metal plate, covered with one or two sheets of glass, which is heated by the sunlight falling on it. This heat is then transferred to air or to water, called carrier fluids, that flows past the back of the plate. The heat may be used directly or may be transferred to another medium for storage. The storage of heat for use at night or during cloudy day is commonly accomplished by using insulated tanks to store the water heated during sunny periods. Such a system can supply a home with hot water drawn from the storage tank or, with the warm water flowing through tubes in floors and ceilings, it can provide space heating. Flat-plate collectors typically heat carrier fluids to temperatures ranging from 65 to 95C. The efficiency of such collectors (i.e., the proportion of the energy received that they convert into usable energy) ranges from 20 to 80%, depending on the design of the collector. The set formed by the collector and the water tank constitutes the simplest of the solar geysers, water being drawn directly from the tank. However, the storage system, functioning in a closed loop, is often distinguished from a hot-water tank and heat is forwarded to one another by means of an exchanger - - a solution which has the advantage of allowing a permanent use since one can add anti-corrosion and anti-freeze agents [3].
2.1. Radiation duration

Tunisia adds up on average between 2863 and 3326 h/y. If the fraction of radiation is defined as being the ratio of the measured duration of radiation at the possible sunshine duration, we notice that this parameter is on annual average between 64 and 75%. This fraction, rather significant, attests that Tunisia is a sunny country if it is known that the annual value of this parameter ranges between 37 and 66% for France, for example [2].
2.2. Global radiation

2. Technical investigation The basic device in a solar plant is the flatplate collector. The most widely used ones consist

The study of the sunshine duration is very useful to determine the solar radiation received

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

261

on the ground. The statistics made upon the data of global radiation measured in various points of the country show that Tunisia receives daily 4.55.2 kWh/m 2, a significant amount for solar applications. At a monthly scale, the total radiation received fluctuates between 2.03 kWh/m s in December and 7.58 kWh/m 2 in July (the maximum of energy received in the whole country) [6].

~_

(Nt/lOOo)~i~

10

15

ntlO00

2.3. Needs o f domestic hot water

The needs of domestic hot water are fixed by the customer whose database is the consumption statistics of the previous years. This measurable quantity can be given according to the number of drawing stations and their nature.

Fig. 1. Optimum combination between number of years (ny) and number of customers (nh).

3.2. Some economic concepts 3.2.1. Energy inflation rate

It is the factor which takes account of the probable increase of the energy price from year to year.
2.4. Solar cover ratio

The solar cover ratio is the quotient between the quantity of energy, provided to the accumulator by the circuit, of the collectors and the quantity of total required energy. This ratio thus represents the portion provided by the sun in the overall consumption. It is generally fixed at 60%.

3.2.2. Present value and net present value

3. Economic survey
3.1. Introduction

For their reliability and their autonomous operation, the solar collectors represent a perfect technology to use in the isolated rural regions. Even if current technology seems trustworthy, it is important to examine the economic profitability of the solar systems in domestic hot water production, by comparing them to conventional means of solar collecting [4]. In the financial evaluation of the collectors, one regards as criteria: the initial investment, the putting in, the equipment maintenance during the whole plant lifetime, the fittings replacement, the civil engineering, etc. (Fig. 1).

The present value (PV) is the current worth of an amount to be received in the future and corresponds to the sum of the treasury stock flows, generated by a security or a credit, brought up to date, at the required profitability rate [5]. The net present value (NPV) corresponds to the difference between the present value and the value to which this title or this credit can be acquired. In other words, NPV is the current value of a particular investment's net cash flow, less the initial investment. The net present value thus measures the creation or the destruction of a value that the purchase of a title or the realization of an investment can involve. Apositive result indicates the investment should be made; otherwise, it should not be made.
3.2.3. Calculation o f specific cost o f energy saving

The specific cost of energy saving (CSP), expressed in invested Tunisian Dinar per kWh, is given by the following relation:

262

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk/ Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

CPS = Investment PSA where PSA is the annual solar production. The optimisation of the solar system thus results in seeking the minimal value of this economic ratio.
3.2.4. Calculation o f the guaranteed energy production

this case, one avoids the cost premium due to the drilling of the walls.
3.3.3. Operating costs

The annual average of guaranteed solar energy production (PEG) is expressed in kWh per annum, and it is estimated to the 8/10 of the annual theoretical solar energy, produced at the outlet of the solar tank, that is to say: PEG -- 0.8 PSA [kWh/y]
3.3. Decomposition o f the costs

Like for any machine, it is necessary to be able to consider its real cost as the sum of its cost basis, its cost of goods sold, its putting out fees, as well as the non-crude expenses, that it generates thereafter.
3.3.1. Fittings cost

These expenses consist primarily of a power consumption used by the active system, the adjustment, etc., plus the expenses of back-up heating: fuel, oil or the electric power. One can say that the first are negligible and that the seconds depend on the solar cover ratio. Indeed, ifa solar installation is oversized, the costs of the auxiliary heating systems decrease, at the price obviously of a greater investment at the beginning. It should thus be possible to find the size of the optimal station, which minimizes the fixed expenses and the trapped assets. It is not however inevitably what the user necessarily seeks: the profitability margin may not be the most important aim, but so far the contribution to the environmental protection. This is why, operating costs are often larger than the economic optimum [8].
3.4. Economic profitability

Obviously, this amount depends much on the size and the type of the station, and in particular on the desired solar cover ratio. It should not be forgotten that in addition to the solar collectors, it is still necessary to count an accumulator, valves and some other devices [6].
3.3.2. Prime costs

These expenses depend also on the station type (a kit is more quickly assembled than if the collector is provided in spare parts, for example) [71. The kind of dwelling influences also considerably the expenses of installation. R costs more to adapt an already existing house than to install solar collectors on new constructions, because in

Counting on an average sunning for Tunisia and depreciation over 25 years, the solar kW-h cost varies between 15 and 30 thousandth of Tunisian Dinar according to the station size and the proportion of self made work. It is necessary then to be able to compare this amount to what that same energy would or would have cost coming from a "traditional" or conventional source, i.e. the recoverable reserves. Consequently, it is necessary to include all the factors of the following costs: the current price of the consumable products the rise in price of trapped assets in the 25 coming years the depreciation and the margin rates of the basic installation. Often, the cheapest energies are those which require the most expensive equipment. the offsite cost (or social cost) that the company will have to spend to deal with waste, and to

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

263

repair the damage, due to pollution, on health, monuments, etc.[9].

4. Software survey: results and discussion

to cover all the future costs, taking account of the bank rate, taxes, maintenance expenses, insurance, subsidies, etc.). Savings will be actualised, starting from the anticipation of the fuel prices during the station lifetime.
4.1. Cost o f a cubic m e t e r o f s o l a r h o t w a t e r

The net production of a solar station is primarily determined by the climate, energy demand, type and surface of collectors and the storage system capacity. An accurate analysis has to be carried out to determine the influence of these variables on the mean annual production, even for definite climatic conditions and a known given demand of heat. The first and the simplest of the methods is to compare additional investment for a solar station, with annual energy savings, calculated at the design stage. A number of computer crossings are necessary to calculate the energetic production of a solar particular plant, while varying the dimensions of the main and most important components, such as the collector area or the storage volume. For these calculations, the projector needs a mathematical model that describes the energetic fluxes in a solar installation. Then, component prices are taken into account to draw the global cost graph, vs. the collector area for different storage volumes. One can use graph techniques to find the combination of components that gives as a result, the maximum energy saving per unit of invested capital. Component prices of solar fittings depend on the manufacture and on the purchase date. This does not prevent from applying this method to select future project components, by referring to the current prices. The second way uses economic factors related to the unit lifetime. This technique ofoptimisation compares the present value of the total saved fuel during the whole operating period. Using an equation of simple costs (system cost = fixed expenses + collector prices), this method allows determining the collector area that maximises the fuel saving present value less the present value of solar costs (defined as the spared amount today

The cost of a cubic meter of solar heated water, and consequently the annual operating expenses are less than those of classical systems. Indeed, the former depends on the fuel used for the auxiliary systems and is as high as the fuel is expensive. We notice, for example, that a cubic meter of hot water produced by a natural gas back-up heater is the cheapest. The comparative calculus of m 3of hot water produced by different plant types in order to identify the less expensive, could be interpreted as an approach mode of the comparative investigation of expenses annuities, since the mean costs for a period (generally one year) are evaluated with aid of the following formula:
F = F c + I -~ Io X i n 2

where F is total amount of expenses per period of time; I 0 - initial investment; i - - actualisation rate; 1o x i/2 - - remuneration of the engaged capital per a period of time, during the lifetime of a project on a linear depreciation basis; n - - the period; F - - current expenses per a period of time; F = maintenance fees + general expenses (unitary energy price x energy consumption) / the boiler performance. The solar hot water cost is calculated by:
Pu =

F volume of hot water

4.2. G l o b a l cost

The fundamental equation of the total cost can be written as follows:

264

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk /Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

Total cost = historical cost + differed annuities (replacement and repair expenses, maintenance, operating costs as well as the costs related to the utilization) - t h e salvage value (i.e. the value of a belonging at the end of its service life or the period of study). As these costs are shared out over several years, it is necessary to convert them into constant currencies (current or annual value) in order to allow their comparison for a given period of time. The conversion of the future value to the present value, called actualisation, is carded out by the application of formulas of yields (bank rate) in the calculation of the costs or of the anticipated advantages of an investment. Actualisation has the main aim of taking into account that an amount of money is more worth today than it would be tomorrow, i.e. it can accumulate benefits. The benefit rate must be fixed before carrying out an analysis of the total cost. One must also state assumptions with regard to the lifetime of the plant devices, the inflation rate, the variation of energy prices and the maintenance costs [ 10]. To be able to decide about the most profitable project, it is necessary to gather all the necessary information to establish and evaluate the choices. To determine the latter, one has to state objectives, for example, the level of comfort; the constraints which can include safety, aesthetics, or the station capacity; the assumptions made in calculating and comparing the total cost of the different solutions If the investor has to choose between a traditional water heating station and a solar heating installation with conventional fossil back-up heaters, the suitable solution is that whose total cost is the weakest while satisfying the objectives and the constraints of the investor [ 11]. When there is only one project and that it is a question of determining the profitable level of an investment, radiation for example, an additional investment is profitable as long as the total cost is reduced.

The most profitable level of the investment corresponds to the point where the total cost is reduced to the minimum. Lastly, for the case where it is a question of deciding if one must invest or not, the criterion is that the global cost must be lower after investment than before it. According to the target and the considered type of investment, other methods of analysis of the overall cost can be used to determine the most profitable investment such as the internal return rate (the profit rate for which the total actualised advantages of an investment is equal to the total actualised costs) and the time recovery rate. An investment proves to be profitable if the internal yield is higher than the acceptable minimal value, fixed by the investor or if the time at the end of which the investment is recovered, by the actualised sums, is lower than the lifetime of the project [12]. It can appear useful, before making a final decision, to check the economic possibilities of a project achievement, starting from certain fundamental parameters, whose future value is dubious, such as the lifetime of the project, the slip of the energy prices, and the up-dating rate. It is worth to know the value or the range of values of the parameters likely to modify the analysis of the total cost (Figs. 2,3).
4. 3. Net present value

For various rates of energy inflation, we have calculated the net present values of different solar installations with various auxiliary systems. It is found that the profitability of the project depends on the supplement nature on the one hand and on the inflation rate of energy on the other hand. Indeed, a project is more profitable as the inflation rate and the fuel price are high. It is like that, for example, that for needs of 50,000 kWh/y and with a new boiler (an investment of 11,000 TD), a solar installation with propane as a back-up would give a negative net present value for a rate of inflation of 0% and a positive one for a rate of 5%. One

B, Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004)259-268

20000 90, 80: 70 60...............................0.. ............................0 0. 0 2 .. ..

265

"~

~ so E 4o
~!~ 20

15000

......_

.....................

.oo

lo
0

10000

10000

GN

GPL

Fuel Elec
z
r.,.

Fig. 2. Actualised values of fossil-fuel sources of energies.

5000

5000

2.

-5000

................................ ................................ 5000

I-"1.
i

0.
I

::

-I0000

CEG

CESG

CESF

CEF

CESE

CEE

Needs (kWh)

Fig. 3. Actualised values of hot sanitary water. also notes that the more important the needs are, the higher are the net present values (Figs.4,5).
4. 4. Time-weighted return

Fig. 4. Present net values vs. needs (for 0% inflation rate). recovery whereas the investment in the solar-natural gas station brings the slowest times (Figs. 6-8).
4.5. Internal rate o f return

The TWR is expressed as an interest rate so that you can easily compare it with other interest rates for the same time period, indicates, according to whether it is higher or lower than the lifetime of the installation, if a project is profitable or not. Thus there are generally profitable projects with fuel, propane, or electric power auxiliaries, which is not the case for natural gas. This criterion is always a function of the rates of inflation and the needs. The variation of these two parameters goes in two opposite directions. Indeed, the more are the needs, the faster the invested capital is recovered and, the higher is the rate of inflation, the shorter is the TWR. The electric auxiliary gives the record of times of

It is the growth rate of your money over a time period relative to the amount invested. IRR, which compares the profit to the amount invested, is expressed as a percent gain or loss for easy comparison with other percent changes for the same time period. The IRR calculation is based on continuous compounding and is one of the most significant parameters in the evaluation of the economic profitability of a project. It goes in the same direction as the needs and the inflation rate. In Tunisia, the natural gas gives the lowest IRR, followed by propane, fuel and finally of electric power, which is an immediate consequence of the prices of these supplements (Fig. 9).

266

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

Fig. 5. Curves of discounted values vs. needs.

20

30 25 20 ,~ 15 10 5 0 CESE CESF CESG

8

18

16

14

12

]0

Fig. 6. Time-weighted return for different auxiliaries.

Fig. 7. Rate of profitability vs. needs for different extra energy providers.

Needs (kWh)

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

267

Fig. 8. Time recovery vs. needs for different auxiliary fittings.

40

.........................................................................
1371

~r- 4 0

35

5. Conclusions

Economic calculations such as they are illustrated by the software worked out within this work take only into account the quantities of non-solar energy, without reference to quality. However, the official cost of non-solar energies replaced does not include the social costs inherent in polluting and dangerous energies. What would become the fuel price if one could include there the cost of pollution [13]? In addition to its cleanness and its safety, solar energy has at least two other qualities likely to help the economists themselves: it is superabundant on the national territory and, contrary to oil, no importation nor bargaining with the foreigner is required. It is inexhaustible and, contrary to energies which are rarefying, can be used as a basis for a non-inflationary economy [14].

30

~..................................................................

25

~ ~.0

20

.................... m... .......

50000

~ 100000 150000 Needs (kSh)

Fig. 9. Rate of return vs. needs. (for 0 % inflation rate).

268

B. Khiari, S. Ben Mabrouk / Desalination 165 (2004) 259-268

References
[1] A. Leng, Suivi des performances d'installation de chauffage solaire clans l'habitat, 1982. [2] M. Guirriec et J.P. Icikovics, Le solaire et l'habitat. Sciences et Vie, 78 (1985). [3] F. Methlouthi, Report of Energetic Audit of Kuriat Palace - Sousse, 1997. [4] B. Zouari, SOFTEN Technical Offer for Skanes Rivage Building Site, 1998. [5] Ch. Kerkeni, S. Ben Mabrouk and A. Belghith, Etude des d6perditions d'un capteur solaire plan. 2nd National Symposium in Physic Research, 1988. [6] K. Ben Nasr, Caract6risation d'un nouveau type d'6changeur/t tuyaux capillaires: Application ~t la climatisation. Facult6 des Sciences de Tunis, Institut National de Recherche Scientifique et Technique, 2000. [7] S. Ben Mabrouk, Complementary Thesis: Principaux [8]

[9]

[10] [11] [12] [13] [14]

syst6mes de eaptation et de conversion de l'6nergie solaire. Facult6 des Sciences de Tunis, 1989. B. Zaouari, Etude technico-6conomique d'une installation solaire collective pour le chauffage de l'eau sanitaire, Ecole Nationale d'Ing6nieurs de Monastir, 1996. M. Allouch, L'ensoleillement en Tunisie. Internal report of the National Institute of Meteorology under the master of the Geophysics Science Department, 1982. A. Pierre, L'eau chaude sanitaire: conception et calcul technique. Handbook A.I.C.V.F., 1983. M. Francke and J.M. Moster, Programming Microsoft Visual Basic, Micro Applications, 1999. B. Khiari, Etude technico-6conomique des installations solaires. Ecole Nationale d'Ing6nieurs de Sfax, 2001. www.cstb.fr www.amede.fr