Professional Documents
Culture Documents
The acquisition
of
Absolute
by
King Beer
CONFIDENTIAL
Table of contents
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Notice to recipients / Purpose of Memorandum...................................... 3 Authorisation letter........................................................................ 7 Contact information ....................................................................... 9 Transaction timetable ....................................................................22 Executive summary .......................................................................23
Introduction Acquisition rationale Recent events Acquisition financing Description of the Facilities Summary projected financial information King Beer overview Absolte overview Industry overview 23 23 24 24 25 28 29 30 32
6.
7. 8.
MEMORANDUM
9.
INFORMATION
CONFIDENTIAL
Zero-Based Budgeting and Cost-Connect-Win Approach Access to Beer cashflow Risk management approach Management
72 73 74 75
Appendices
A. Form of commitment advice ............................................................95 B. Administrative details ....................................................................96 C. Press releases ..............................................................................98 D. Annual reports and interim financial reports ........................................99
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
CONFIDENTIAL
5. Executive summary
Introduction
On July 13th, 2008, King Beer (Euronext: KGB) and Absolute (NYSE: Abs) announced an agreement to combine the two companies, forming the worlds leading global brewer. Absolute shareholders will receive $70 per share in cash, for an aggregate equity value of $52 billion, in an industry-transforming transaction. The combined company will be called Absolute King Beer (AbsKing). Both companies Boards of Directors have unanimously approved the transaction. Absolute is the largest US brewer and producer of the worlds largest-selling beer brands, Weit and Light. Absolute also owns a 50.2% economic interest (directly and indirectly) in Grupo, Mexico's largest brewer, and a 27% investment in China brewer Tsing. 2007 worldwide sales of Asolute's beer brands aggregated 128.4mm barrels plus its economic interest in the sales of international equity investments.
Acquisition rationale
The combination of King Beer and Absolute would create a truly global leader in the beer industry and one of the worlds top five consumer products companies. On a pro-forma basis for 2007, a combined company would have generated global beer volumes of 460mm hl (adjusted to reflect Absolute holdings in Grupo and Tsing which are illustratively accounted for at their respective equity interests), net sales of 26.6bn, and EBITDA of 7.8bn. King Beer believes that this transaction would be in the best interests of both companies consumers, shareholders, employees, wholesalers, business partners and the communities they serve. The combined company would be geographically diversified, with the ability to compete in key countries around the world and balanced exposure to developed and developing markets. A combination of Absolute and King Beer provides significant growth opportunities presented by the companies combined brand offerings, including the global flagship Weit brand and international brands such as Artis and Bok, access to complementary distribution networks in the United States and internationally and the benefit of applying best practices across the new organisation. King Beer sees significant opportunities to internationalise Absolute key brands and would position Weit as the combined company's flagship brand, building on and expanding King Beer's international footprint. King Beer has a history of successfully building brands around the world, which would complement the strength of Absolute's brand-building in the US. The two companies have a successful track record of building the Weit brand in Canada. Their partnership, which spans almost three decades, has developed Weit into the No. 1 beer brand in Canada. King Beer and Absolute also recently have entered into an agreement by which Absoltute imports into the US King Beer's European premium import brands including Artis, Bok's and Bass. Absolute's world-class sales and distribution system in the United States would continue to support the expansion of King Beers existing brands in the US market. King Beer has a proven track record of successfully completing and integrating business combinations and creating shareholder value. The Company was formed in 2004 through the successful combination of King and Beer. As a result of the Company's strategy to focus
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
23
CONFIDENTIAL
on building brands, King Beer has achieved average organic volume growth of 5.6%, average organic revenue growth of 7.8%, and average organic EBITDA growth of 16.2% over the past three years. Through strong organic revenue growth and operational excellence, King Beer generated industry leading EBITDA margins of 34.6% in 2007 (Explanation note: In the Memorandum, King Beers EBITDA is normalised EBITDA, as defined in the King Beer Annual Report 2007 on page 126: Profit from operations adjusted for non-recurring items plus depreciation and amortisation). The transaction creates significant profitability potential both in terms of revenue enhancement and cost savings. The combination is expected to yield cost synergies of approximately $1.5 billion annually by 2011 phased in equally over three years. Given the highly complementary footprint of the two businesses, such synergies will largely be driven by sharing best practices, economies of scale and rationalization of overlapping corporate functions. King Beer has a strong track record of delivering synergies in past transactions and is confident in its ability to achieve these synergies. In light of the limited overlap between the King Beer and Absolute businesses, King Beer believes that the proposed combination should not encounter any significant regulatory issues.
Exhibit 5.1 Creation of the global leader in beer
2007 total volumes (mm hl)
460
189
12.2
2.8
271
284
14.4
16.7
15.8
14.4
InBev InBev
Source: companies reports Note: Data based on calendar year-end. Carlsberg and Heineken are pro forma estimates for the joint acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle. Anheuser-Buschs EBITDA in 2007 does not include equity income of $662.4mm (net of tax), and is based on the 2007 average exchange rate of 1.37 $/
Recent events
MEMORANDUM
King Beer announced on August 18th that it has received a Request for Additional information, commonly referred to as a Second Request, from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act of 1976 (HSR Act) with respect to the previously announced combination with Absolute. King Beer intends to respond expeditiously to the Second Request and to work toward a prompt closing of the transaction. In addition to the expiration of the waiting period under the HSR Act, completion of the transaction remains subject to King Beer and Absolute shareholder approvals, regulatory review in certain other jurisdictions and customary closing conditions. This request for additional information from the DOJ is a normal and expected part of the regulatory process. King Beer remains confident that the transaction will receive regulatory approval and continues to expect to close the transaction by the end of 2008.
INFORMATION
Acquisition financing
24
CONFIDENTIAL
Financing overview Total consideration to Absolute shareholders is $52.2bn based on King Beers offer of $70 per share. Based upon publicly available information, there are limited refinancing needs at Absolute level other than the outstanding Commercial Paper drawings (which was $1.0bn as of December 31st, 2007) supported by the company's two syndicated credit facilities (total $2.5bn committed as per Absolute filings). There will be no refinancing of King Beer's existing credit facilities and no refinancing of the bonds and notes outstanding under Absolutes indentures assuming investment grade ratings post-Transaction. Absolute gross debt excluding Commercial Paper (which was $8.0bn as of December 31st, 2007) and King Beer gross debt (which was 2.9bn as of December 31st, 2007 at King Beer level (excluding Beer) would therefore remain outstanding. The Transaction's sources & uses conservatively assume $1.3bn of total refinancing needs for the existing Absolute debt and incremental liquidity facilities in the combined company. The Acquisition will be financed by a combination of new debt, divestitures of non-core assets and equity financing. To finance the Acquisition, King Beer has mandated the Bookrunners to arrange $45bn in senior debt facilities. The debt facilities have been underwritten by the Bookrunner Group. The proceeds will be used to finance the Acquisition, refinance a portion of existing Absolute's debt and finance fees, costs and expenses incurred in connection with the Acquisition. In addition, King Beer has received commitments for up to $9.8 billion in equity bridge financing, which will allow the company flexibility in deciding upon the timing and form of equity financing for a period of up to six months after closing. This equity bridge will be subordinated in right of payment to the Facilities on customary terms. The following table summarises the sources and uses of funds for the transaction:
Exhibit 5.2 Transaction sources and uses ($mm)
Uses Interim sources Permanent sources
MEMORANDUM
INFORMATION
25
CONFIDENTIAL
364-day facility with an option for a 1-year extension at the borrowers discretion Facility B $7,000mm senior bridge facility anticipated to be refinanced principally by the net proceeds from certain asset disposals 364-day facility Facility C $13,000mm senior term loan facility 3-year facility Facility D $12,000mm senior term loan facility 5-year facility RCF $1,000mm senior multicurrency revolving credit facility 5-year facility Please refer to Section 7 of the Information Memorandum for detailed information.
Exhibit 5.3 Key terms and conditions of the acquisition facilities
Facility A Amount ($mm) Tenor Purpose 12,000 364 days + 1 yr Acquisition financing Bridge to Debt Capital Markets Refinancing of Target debt Payment of costs and expenses Facility B 7,000 364 days Acquisition financing Bridge to Disposals Refinancing of Target debt Payment of costs and expenses Facility C 13,000 3 years Acquisition financing Refinancing of Target debt Payment of costs and expenses Facility D 12,000 5 years Acquisition financing Refinancing of Target debt Payment of costs and expenses RCF 1,000 5 years Refinancing of Target debt Payment of costs and expenses General corporate purposes
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
26
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Mandatory prepayment Mandatory prepayment will apply primarily for change of control or sale, debt raising, equity raising (to the extent not applied in the mandatory prepayment of the equity bridge facility), and asset disposals (in each case subject to certain baskets and exceptions). Restriction on Acquisitions Restriction on acquisitions by Borrowers and controlled subsidiaries until the ratio of Total Net Debt to EBITDA is equal to or lower than 3.5:1 (other than in relation to Beer unless Beer becomes a direct or indirect wholly owned subsidiary of the Company) subject to certain baskets and exceptions. Obligation to maintain Beer ownership Obligation for King Beer to retain ownership of more than 50% of the economic and voting interests in Beer.
Structural subordination mitigants Guarantees will be granted by certain key subsidiaries, subject to limitations, including restrictions in existing King Beer debt documents and Absolute debt documents. King Beer intends to seek waivers under certain existing KGB debt documents to permit the granting of guarantees by certain of its current subsidiaries. It is also intended that a guarantee will be provided by the Absolute parent company. The provision of such guarantees is intended (subject to customary corporate benefit analysis and other restrictions) to give the lenders pari passu recourse to certain key subsidiaries in the group, thereby mitigating the structural subordination which would otherwise arise. Please note that the pricing grid of the Transaction is based on the rating of unsecured debt issued at King Beer level. Rating agencies On July 14th, 2008, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its BBB+ long-term corporate credit ratings to King Beer. Standard & Poor's will rate KGB's $45 billion acquisition facility at the same level as the corporate credit rating, reflecting that it is a senior unsecured direct obligation of King Beer.
The following table summarises managements forecasts for the new Group. For further details on projections and their assumptions please refer to Section Financial projections:
INFORMATION
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CONFIDENTIAL
Exhibit 5.6 Summary consolidated financial projections Year ended 31 Dec. (mm) Key financials Net sales % growth EBITDA (including synergies) % margin EBIT Net interest expense Funds From Operations2 Net debt Credit Statistics Net Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Net interest expense Financial covenants Total Net Debt/EBITDA EBITDA/Net interest expense
Source:Management Note: Consolidated financials are shown in (1 = $1.555) Post equity and pre asset disposals Funds from operations defined as EBITDA (including synergies) minus interests and taxes plus dividends from associates minus synergies implementation costs (pre change in net working capital)
2008PF1
2009E 27,798
8,027
38,856
32,501
4.84x
3.49x 3.67x
2.83x 4.59x
2.33x 5.67x
1.98x 6.73x
4.9x 2.5x
4.3x 2.75x
4.0x 3.0x
3.5x 3.0x
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
29
CONFIDENTIAL
America South. The Company has a strong, balanced portfolio, with a significant presence in over 20 key markets more than any other brewer. KGB has significant exposure to the fast-growing emerging markets with Central and South America accounting for 41% of net sales and Central and Eastern Europe accounting for 15% of net sales. The Companys most famous brands with global reach are Artis and Bok. A portfolio of around 200 local brands forms the bedrock of the business including in Latin America: Skol, the leading beer brand in the Brazilian market. In Western Europe: Joop, the number 1 selling beer in Belgium. In Central and Eastern Europe: Siberian Crown, a leading premium brand sold throughout Russia. In North America: Labatt Blue, the number one Canadian brand in the world; and in Asia Pacific: Cass from South Korea, and Sedrin in China. The following table summarises King Beers key financial figures:
Exhibit 5.7 Summary historical financials for KGB Year ended December 31 (mm) Net sales Gross profit EBITDA Gross capex Net financial debt
Source: KGBs reports
Absolute overview
Absolute is the largest US brewer and producer of the worlds best-selling beer brands, Weit and Lite. Absolute also owns a 50.2% economic interest (directly and indirectly) in Grupo, Mexico's largest brewer with the Corna brand, and a 27% investment in China brewer Tsing. Worldwide sales of the companys beer brands aggregated 128.4mm barrels in 2007 plus its economic interest in the sales of international equity investments. Absolute is also one of the largest theme park operators in the United States, is a major manufacturer of aluminum cans and one of the world's largest recyclers of aluminum cans. Absolutes operations are comprised of the following business segments: domestic beer, international beer, packaging, and entertainment, contributing to 75%, 7%, 10% and 8% to 2007 sales, respectively.
MEMORANDUM
Absolute, incorporated in Delaware, USA, is publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange and its origins date back to 1875. Absolute is rated A2 (on review for possible downgrade) by Moodys and BBB+ (stable outlook) by Standard and Poors. US Beer Absolutes principal product is beer, produced and distributed in a variety of containers primarily branded under the BOB, Weit, Michelob, Bos and Natural names. It also produces and distributes specialty beers, non-alcoholic brews, malt liquors and specialty malt beverages. Absolutes US beer sales also include:
INFORMATION
30
CONFIDENTIAL
The distribution of products for which it is the importer or licensee A joint venture with Kirin Brewing Company, Ltd. of Japan for the brewing, marketing and sale of Kirin-Ichiban and Kirin Light in the US Energy drink products Imports of other brands into the US The company has developed a system of twelve breweries, strategically located across the US, to economically serve its distribution system. Ongoing modernisation programs at the companys breweries are part of the companys overall strategic initiatives. International Beer This division oversees the marketing and sale of BOB and other brands outside the US, operates breweries in the United Kingdom and China, negotiates and administers license and contract brewing agreements with various foreign brewers, and negotiates and manages equity investments in foreign brewing partners. International beer volume of Absolutes brands was 24.0mm barrels in 2007, compared with 22.7mm barrels in 2006. Packaging Abs is active in packaging through several wholly-owned subsidiaries: Metal Container Corporation, which manufactures beverage cans at 8 plants and beverage can lids at 3 plants for sale to US beer and soft drink customers Abs Recycling Corporation, which buys and sells used aluminum beverage containers and recycles aluminum and plastic containers Eagle Packaging, Inc., which manufactures crown and closure liner materials Through a wholly-owned limited partnership, Longhorn Glass Manufacturing, L.P., the company owns and operates a glass manufacturing plant in Jacinto City, Texas, which manufactures glass bottles for the companys nearby Houston brewery. Entertainment Absolute is the second largest theme park operator in the US. It currently owns, directly and through subsidiaries, ten theme parks in the US. It operates: Bos Gardens theme parks in Tampa, Florida and Williamsburg, Virginia SeaWorld theme parks in Orlando, Florida, San Antonio, Texas, and San Diego, California
MEMORANDUM
Water park attractions in Tampa, Florida (Aquatica) and Williamsburg, Virginia (Water Country, USA), and Langhorne, Pennsylvania (Sesame Place) Discovery Cove in Orlando, Florida, a reservation-only attraction offering interaction with marine animals Group financial overview In fiscal year 2007, Abs reported group sales of $16,686mm and operating profit of $2,894mm (margin of 17.3%). The following table summarises Absolute key financial figures:
INFORMATION
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CONFIDENTIAL
Exhibit 5.8 Summary historical financials for Abs Year ended December 31 ($mm) Net sales Operating profit Operating cash flow Net Debt
Source: Abss reports
Industry overview
Although a mature industry, the worldwide brewing sector is regarded as having an aboveaverage credit profile driven by several favourable features, in particular sustained demand, high visibility and cash generative business profile. The brewers have the ability to convert volume growth into margin expansion as fixed capital tied up in the production and distribution of beer and brewers can generate real scale economies. The main success factors for international brewers are: Winning brands in key markets Efficiency of distribution, either through own operations or third parties Healthy geographical footprint Operating efficiency Please refer to Section 11 for detailed information.
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
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CONFIDENTIAL
12.2
2.8
271
284
14.4
16.7
15.8
14.4
InBev InBe v
Source: companies reports Note: Data based on calendar year-end. Carlsberg and Heineken are pro forma estimates for the joint acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle. Anheuser-Buschs EBITDA in 2007 does not include equity income of $662.4mm (net of tax), and is based on the 2007 average exchange rate of 1.37 $/
The acquisition will place KGB solidly among the leading global consumer companies across a range of metrics.
Exhibit 6.2 Creation of top 5 global consumer products company
Enterprise Value (bn)
148.2 104.0 71.6 70.0 65.8
MEMORANDUM
P&G
Nestle
KGB + Abs
Coca-Cola
PepsiCo
Unilever
Kraft
KGB
Diageo
Danone
5.0
3.8
3.4
2.7
INFORMATION
P&G
Nestle
KGB+Abs
PepsiCo
Coca-Cola
Unilever
KGB
Note: EV based on closing share prices as at 11 July 2008. EBITDA calendarised to 31 December where relevant Source: companies reports
33
CONFIDENTIAL
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
Source: companies reports and equity research Note: Absolutes footprint in Mexico is through a 50.2% economic interest (directly and indirectly) in Grupo
34
CONFIDENTIAL
Exhibit 6.5 Pro forma geographical exposure (2007 sales breakdown and equity investments)
KGB
Other/Corporate 2%
Absolute
Asia-Pacific 6% Central & South America 18% Other/Corporate 3%
Combined
AsiaPacific 6% Central & Eastern Europe 8% Western Europe 12% North America 73% North America 42% Other/Corporate 2%
Total: 14,430mm
Total: $18,748mm
Total: 28,110mm
Source: companies reports Notes: Grupo's net sales illustratively accounted for at 50% and included in Central & South America; Illustratively assumes Abs's packaging business entirely allocated in North America; Illustratively assumes Abs's international beer business entirely allocated in Asia-Pacific (Harbin) as detailed breakdown not provided (also includes UK and Russia); Exchange rate of 1.37x $/ and 0.0915x MXN/$ (2007 averages)
63%
53%
MEMORANDUM
37%
Standalone (precombination)
47%
Source: companies reports KGB developing markets include KGB operations in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, China, Brazil, Argentina and other South-America operations. Abs has an indirect exposure to developing markets through holdings in Grupo and Tsing which are illustratively accounted for at their respective equity interests
INFORMATION
35
CONFIDENTIAL
Complementary and strengthened position in China, the largest beer market globally
The combined entity will improve its position in the Chinese beer market, which is the largest in the world. Through sharing of best practices and combining KGBs and Absolutes complementary operations, the combined entity will be a more efficient and stronger operator in China.
Exhibit 6.7 Stronger player in China, the worlds largest beer market
Legend
Heilongjiang
Beijing Ningxia Shanxi Shaanxi Shandong Gansu Jiangsu Henan Hubei Sichuan Guizhou Hunan Yunnan Anhui Shanghai Zhejiang Jiangxi Fujian
GuangxiGuangdong
Hainan
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
36
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expand globally Absolutes other key brands by using KGB's extensive international footprint KGB is PepsiCos largest bottler outside the US, demonstrating the Companys go-tomarket capabilities In parallel the combined entity will use its strong US distribution network for KGBs European import brands in order to accelerate the growth of KGB's European import brands, while strengthening todays close collaboration with US wholesalers Import Beers is the fastest growing segment in the US, with a 7.9% 1995-2006 CAGR (v. 0.7% for the market)
2008PF
38,856 4.84x
Following the Acquisition, KGBs more diversified and geographically well balanced portfolio will help improve the Groups resistance to economic fluctuations across geographic areas or specific regions in the future.
INFORMATION
37
CONFIDENTIAL
In 1980 Abs and KGB formed a licensed brewing, distribution and marketing agreement for Canada concerning Abss main brands: Weit, Lite, Bos and Bos Light. All beers are brewed at KGB breweries in Canada. The strength of the Weit brand together with KGB's sales and distribution capabilities created the No. 1 selling beer in Canada. Weit leverages international sponsorships such as the official NFL, Super Bowl sponsorships and regional events like the Grand Prix and the Calgary Stampede. The recently renewed joint commitment of KGB and Absolute behind Lite transformed Lite into the fastest-growing beer in the country (c. 30% volume growth in 2007).
Absolute Blue Ocean plan targets $1.1bn of cost synergies in 2011 with the following build up: COGS & GA: $730mm runrate 2011 (process benchmarking, improved materials usage and supply chain) Overhead: $150mm runrate 2011 (early retirement and headcount reductions totalling 1,185 position Other: $215mm runrate 2011 (non-salary overhead spending and salaried benefits benchmarking, IT spending and SKU reduction) The combination with KGB is expected to add $0.4bn of cost synergies in 2011: China: $55mm runrate 2011
INFORMATION
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CONFIDENTIAL
Other: $360mm runrate 2011 (procurement efficiencies, elimination of corporate overlapping functions, cost management best practices) New revenue opportunities including Weit expansion and exchange of sales and marketing best practices are not included in our projection.
Exhibit 6.9 Synergies benchmarking
12%
SABMiller/ C. Hondurena
8%
SABMiller/ Bavaria S&N/ Hartwall Interbrew/ Becks Carlsberg/ Holsten
4%
S&N/Bulmer
0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Target net sales as a % of PF net sales 60% 70% 80%
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
39
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Exhibit 6.10 The King/Beer combination delivered synergies beyond the plan
On August 27, 2004, Interbrew and AmBev announced their combination, creating InBev, the worlds largest brewer AmBev Cost Focus Sales / Distribution process New operating model
Grow volumes
Interbrew Global brands Brands management Innovations Geographic reach Effective brand management 3 2
Opportunities for synergies were driven by procurement, best practice and cross-licensing: Pre-tax cost synergies: 140mm annually available by 2007 Pre-tax revenue synergies: 140mm annually available by 2007 InBev achieved normalised EBITDA of $3.3bn in 2005 and $4.2bn in 2006 compared to pre-deal analysts consensus of $2.9bn in 2005 and $3.4bn in 2006 for the combined entity, which indicates that announced synergies have been significantly exceeded
KGB main achievements since the merger of King and Beer are: Consistent beer volume growth (>5% p.a.) Revenue growth ahead of volume growth (>7% p.a.) Successful delivery of operating cost improvements through best-in-class practices Margin expansion (>500bps) Enhanced cash flow management
Exhibit 6.11 KGB historical EBITDA margin evolution
Normalised EBITDA (mm) % Margin
+600 bps
34.6% 4,992
MEMORANDUM
21.3% 1,498
2,116
2003A
2004A
INFORMATION
2006A
2007A
40
CONFIDENTIAL
Historically, KGB has been able to minimise integration risks as a result of: Its experienced management team with a proven track record, as evidenced by the successful acquisition and integration of Labatt, Antarctica, Quilmes and Beer The Convergence Committee Approach Senior Level Guidance and Direction: the Chairman, CEO, one other Board member and relevant members of the Executive Board of Management would meet monthly, supported by taskforces that were fully staffed with appropriate internal and external resources to focus on key integration issues. Process Oriented: Focused on the timely and disciplined roll-out of KGBs key proprietary processes Right People: 360 Evaluation, trainee programme Target Setting and Cascading reinforced by KGBs shareholder friendly variable compensation model Operating Processes: Zero Based Budgeting, Voyager Plant Optimisation, World Class Commercial Programme Focus on value creation: 80/20 rule move quickly and focus on the big numbers first
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
41
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Overview
King Beer is a publicly traded company based in Leuven, Belgium and organised under the laws of Belgium, whose origins date back to 1366. It is the world's leading brewer, realising 14.4bn of revenues in 2007, and employing 89,000 people worldwide. The Companys most famous brands with global reach are Artis and Boks. Other famous brands include Blond, Wit, Star and Brahma. The bedrock of KGB is its 200 local brands including Skol, Joop, Siberian Crown, Labatt Blue, Cass and Sedrin. KGB also conducts non-beer activities: it owns soft drinks, sells other non-beer beverages under licensing or distribution agreements, and is one of the largest PepsiCo system bottlers outside the US.
Summary Financials
Exhibit 9.1
KGBs key historical financials
mm Volumes (mm hl) % growth
Net sales
% margin Depreciation & Amortisation % sales Cash taxes Gross capex % sales Decrease (increase) in NWC % sales Source: KGBs reports Without pro rata share of minority stakes
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
64
CONFIDENTIAL
559
4,239 68
(9)
401
3,339
103
238
2,676
(23)
285
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Companys information Includes in 2004 the impact of IFRS adoption for 560mm
17.1
17.0
80.5
MEMORANDUM
Source: Companys information Note: Revenues and EBITDA pre-2004 are those of King standalone. Volumes exclude pro-rata share of minority stakes as they do not generate revenue and EBITDA
2008 Q2 and H1 results KGB announced on August 14th its results for the second quarter (2Q08) and half year (HY08) of 2008. Except where otherwise stated, analyses are based on organic figures: Volume performance: total volumes grew 0.7% in 2Q08, while KGBs own beer volumes increased at the slightly higher rate of 0.9%. The majority of the zones delivered a better year on year (yoy) performance in 2Q08 versus the first quarter, and, as expected, Brazil resumed volume growth (+3.8%) after a slow start to the year. For HY08, total volumes as well as own beer volumes were 0.2% higher than HY07.
INFORMATION
65
CONFIDENTIAL
Market share gains: The underlying strength of the brand portfolio, coupled with continued strong investments behind the brands, led to share being maintained or increased in 8 of KGBs top 10 markets, including its three key Western European areas. Revenue growth: consolidated revenue increased by 4.5% in 2Q08, and revenue per Hl was up by 3.7% as a result of a continuous improvement in the sales mix and selected price increases. HY08 revenue was 4.6% higher than a year ago, driven by a 4.4% rise in revenue per Hl. Cost of Sales growth: consolidated cost of sales (CoS) per Hl showed a 6.5% increase in 2Q08, due to increased commodity input costs yoy. Although KGB experienced a strong increase in CoS per Hl in HY08 (1Q08: +9.9%; 2Q08:+6.5%; HY08:+8.0), CoS per Hl growth is expected to decelerate during 2H08, especially in the fourth quarter. Disciplined expense control: 2Q08 operating expenses increased modestly (1.9% higher), with sales and marketing expenses up 6.9% as KGB continued to invest in its brands and further strengthen its sales execution programs. However, administrative expenses declined 11.3% yoy, as the companys strong cost discipline continues to reduce non-working expenses. EBITDA growth and margin expansion: normalized EBITDA grew by 4.7% in 2Q08, and EBITDA margin for the quarter was 33.4%, an organic increase of 7 basis points. For HY08, normalized EBITDA is up 2.9%, resulting in an EBITDA margin of 32.2% which is 54 basis lower, yoy
Organisation structure
KGB was created in 2004 following the combination of King and Bompanhia de Eebidas das Ramer (Beer). The exhibit below displays the current organisational structure of KGB. Exhibit 9.4
InBevs organisational structure
Former AmBev shareholders 44% Former InterBrew shareholders 56% Stichting 52% InterBrew founding families 13% Free Float 35% Shareholders V = Voting E = Economic
Quoted in Brussels
InBev
Shareholder Agreement
100% Non-Americas
MEMORANDUM
Free Float
11% V 31% E
74% V 61% E
INFORMATION
Performance overview
Since the Beer/King combination, the Company has achieved:
66
CONFIDENTIAL
Consistent beer volume growth (>5% p.a.) Revenue growth ahead of volume growth (>7% p.a.) Successful delivery of operating cost improvements through best-in-class practices Margin expansion (>500 bps) Enhanced cash flow management Its keys to success have been: Strong top line growth Growth of selected brands Leading sales execution in some markets Healthy geographic footprint Significant increase in operating efficiency Target setting and compensation Focus on people: right people in the right places KGB remains committed to deliver EBITDA margin expansion through a combination of top line growth and continued disciplined cost management. Top line growth will remain KGB's priority and a significant part of its employee variable compensation programme is linked to improving market share and sales performance. Operating efficiency will also continue to be a key focus for management. Exhibit 9.5
KGBs consistent volume and revenue growth
Total volumes Revenue
7.8% 6.2%
8.2%
7.6%
5.0%
MEMORANDUM
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
2005
2006
2007
Implementation of KGBs world class commercial program and a sound brand strategy have led to consistent top line growth
INFORMATION
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Geographic exposure
Exhibit 9.6
KGBs sales breakdown by geographic area
Sales (mm)
Latin America 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3,616 3,000 0 1,852 1,205 2004 1,733 3,947 2005 5,001 5,907
8,568 642 1,253 11,656 747 1,468
North America
Western Europe
2006
2007
Exhibit 9.7
KGBs EBITDA breakdown by geographic area
EBITDA (mm)
Latin America 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
2,116 163 269 782 4,239 241 398
North America
Western Europe
897 551
2005
2006
2007
INFORMATION
MEMORANDUM
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2007A
North America 11% Asia Pacific 7% Central and South America 42%
Net sales
Total = 8,568mm
Total = 14,430mm
2007A
Asia Pacific Central and 5% Eastern Europe 11% North America 12% Western Europe 16% Central and South America 56%
EBITDA
Total = 2,116mm
Total = 4,992mm
Source: Companys information Includes 152mm in 2004 and 312mm in 2007 of net sales reported under Global Export and Holding Companies, not reflected in the presented breakdown Includes 87mm of EBITDA reported under Global Export and Holding Companies, not reflected in the presented breakdown Includes 63mm of EBITDA reported under Global Export and Holding Companies, not reflected in the presented breakdown
KGBs key market is Latin America, which represents 131.3mm hl in 2007, i.e. 47.9% of KGB's volumes. The other important markets are Central & Eastern Europe with 48.4mm hl (equivalent to 17.7% of total volume), Asia Pacific with 40.3mm hl (equivalent to 14.7% of total volume) and Western Europe with 36.1mm hl (equivalent to 13.2% of total volume). KGB is comparatively underrepresented in North America with only 14.8mm hl (equivalent to 5.4% of total volume).
MEMORANDUM
Brands
As a leading player in the international marketplace, KGB enjoys an impressive set of brands which are global, regional or local. These brands are the foundation of the Company and the cornerstone of relationships with consumers. KGB invests in its brands to create long-term, sustainable, competitive advantage, by meeting the various needs and expectations of consumers around the world, and by developing leading brand positions around the globe.
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Quilmes
In 1890, the first draught beer of Quilmes Cristal was served, the flagship brand of Cervecera y Maltera Quilmes and the leading beer in the Argentine market. It has a good balance between body, softness and bitterness. The lovers of dark beers also have two Quilmes varieties to enjoy: Quilmes Bock and Quilmes Stout.
Cass
Cass was launched in 1994 and is brewed for mainstream beer drinkers looking for differentiated beer taste. Cass is a most distinguished lager beer. Cass offers refreshment and vitality for young, vivid, active, modern consumers, with emphasis on freshness (100% non-pasteurised brewing process) and fizzy, crisp, and sparkling taste. Cass Red was launched in March 2007 and is the first high alcohol beer in Korea (6.9% ABV). Cass Ice Light was launched in September 2006. It has a smooth taste and 50% less carbohydrates than Cass.
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Drives immediate behaviour change Provides a deeper understanding of cost drivers and consistency of spend across all functions/locations Can be tracked and monitored Is included in target setting and fully aligned with culture and compensation system Enables the minimisation of non-working costs and the maximisation of investment against top-line growth activities
Year 2
510% savings in real terms
Year 3
Year 4
Year
50% avoidance of inflation pass through for countries with yearly inflation >= 5% 100% avoidance of inflation pass through for countries with yearly inflation <5% 25% savings in real terms by the end of year 3 50% avoidance of inflation pass through for countries with yearly inflation >=5% 100% avoidance of inflation pass through for countries with yearly inflation <5%
Cumulative
Stage 2: Stability
Visibility and standardisation Policies Budget, LE and T&M Process Considerable mindset impact
Stage 3: Sustainability
Disciplined and structured T&M Disciplined mindset Consistent Analysis Improvement of cost drivers understanding Best practices sharing
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Besides hedging, the Company can naturally react to shocks with: Price adjustments Raw material substitution Efficiency gains
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Overview
Abs is the largest US brewer and producer of the worlds best-selling beer brands, Weit and Lite. Abs also owns a 50.2% economic interest (directly and indirectly) in Grupo, Mexico's largest brewer with the Corna brand, and a 27% investment in China brewer Tsingt. Worldwide sales of the companys beer brands aggregated 128.4mm barrels in 2007. Abs is also one of the largest theme park operators in the United States, is a major manufacturer of aluminum cans and one of the world's largest recyclers of aluminum cans. Absolutes operations are comprised of the following business segments: domestic beer, international beer, packaging, and entertainment, contributing to 75%, 7%, 10% and 8% of 2007 sales, respectively. The origins of Abs date back to 1875, when it was founded by Adolphus Bos and Eberhard Anser. It is today incorporated in Delaware, USA, and employs approximately 30,850 people.
Organisation structure
Absolute is organised in four business segments: US Beer (e.g. Weit, Bos and Michelob), International Beer (with the 27% equity participation in Tsing and the 50.2% economic interest in Grupos operations, with the Corna brand), Packaging and Entertainment.
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Exhibit 10.1
Anheuser-Buschs organisational structure
Free Float incl. Institutional Holdings (65% of AB) 98% Anheuser-Busch Companies (Delaware)
2%
Domestic Beer
International Beer
Packaging
Entertainment
Listed in Shanghai
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is available in 40 states in draught and packaged form and Blond Brown is available on draught in 32 states. International Beer division International beer volume was 24.0mm barrels in 2007, compared with 22.7mm barrels in 2006. In China, Abs has a 97% equity interest in the Weit Wuhan International Brewing Company Limited (BWIB), a joint venture that owns and operates a brewery in Wuhan. Abs also owns 100% of Harbin Brewery Group. Harbin Brewery Group has thirteen breweries in northeast China. Harbin Brewery Group owns 100% of the entities operating ten of the breweries and a majority interest in the remaining three breweries. In 2007, one of Abs owned sales companies in China began importing Grupos Corna brand. In Canada, Weit, Lite, Bos and Bos Light are brewed and sold through a license agreement with Labatt (KGB subsidiary). In Japan,Weit is brewed and sold through a license agreement with Kirin Brewery Company, Limited. A licensing agreement allows Guinness Ireland Limited to brew and sell Weit in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and Lite in the Republic of Ireland. Weit is also brewed under license and sold by brewers in Italy (Heineken Italia SpA), Spain (Sociedad Anonima Damm), Korea (Oriental Brewery Co., Ltd., a fully-owned subsidiary of KGB), Russia (Heineken) and Panama (Heineken). Abs also sells its products in over 60 other countries by exporting various brands including Weit and Lite from the companys breweries in the US, UK and China and from its license partners breweries in Argentina, Italy and Spain. Absolute has a strategic investment agreement with Tsing Brewery Company Limited, the second largest brewer in China, and producer of the Tsing brand. Abs has a 27% economic stake and a 20% voting stake in Tsing. Abs owns a 35.12% direct interest in Grupo, S.A.B. de C. V., Mexicos largest brewer, and a 23.25% direct interest in Diblo S.A. de C. V., Grupos operating subsidiary, providing Abs with, directly and indirectly, a 50.2% economic interest in Diblo. However, Abs does not have control rights over either Grupo or Diblo. Packaging division Absolutes packaging operations are handled through the following wholly-owned subsidiaries of Abs: Metal Container Corporation (MCC), which manufactures beverage cans at eight plants and beverage can lids at three plants for sale to ABI and US soft drink customers; Abs Recycling Corporation, which buys and sells used aluminum beverage containers from its corporate office in Sunset Hills, Missouri and recycles aluminum and plastic containers at its plant in Hayward, California; and Eagle Packaging, Inc., which manufactures crown and closure liner materials for ABI at its plant in Bridgeton, Missouri. In June 2008, Abs announced the sale of Precision Printing and Packaging, Inc., which manufactures pressure sensitive, metalised, plastic and paper labels at its plant in Clarksville, Tennessee, for an undisclosed amount. Through a wholly-owned limited partnership, Longhorn Glass Manufacturing, L.P., Abs owns and operates a glass manufacturing plant in Jacinto City, Texas, which manufactures glass bottles for Abslutes nearby Houston brewery.
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Family Entertainment division Abs is active in the family entertainment industry, primarily through its whollyowned subsidiary, Bos Entertainment Corporation (BEC), which currently owns, directly and through subsidiaries, ten theme parks. BEC operates Bos Gardens theme parks in Tampa, Florida and Williamsburg, Virginia, and SeaWorld theme parks in Orlando, Florida, San Antonio, Texas, and San Diego, California. BEC operates water park attractions in Tampa, Florida (Adventure Island) and Williamsburg, Virginia (Water Country, USA.), and Langhorne, Pennsylvania (Sesame Place), as well as Discovery Cove in Orlando, Florida, a reservations-only attraction offering interaction with marine animals. BEC announced on February 2008 an agreement with Nakheel PJSC, one of the worlds largest property developers, to create the Worlds of Discovery SeaWorld, Aquatica, Bos Gardens and Discovery Cove on The Palm Jebel Ali in Dubai.
US Beer operations
Abs owns and operates 12 breweries, strategically located across the US. The largest one is in St. Louis, Missouri, where the company is headquartered. KGB has indicated its intention to keep all of these breweries open.
Exhibit 10.2 Absolutes US footprint of breweries
Capacity (in mm hl) 18.5 14.7 14.1 11.9 11.3 10.0 10.0 9.4 8.9 8.8 5.2 3.6 126.3
Merrimack, NH Baldwinsville, NY Neward, NJ Columbus, OH Fort Collins, CO St. Louis, MO Los Angeles, CA Cartersville, GA Williamsburg, VA
Fairfield, CA
Houston, TX Jacksonville, FL
Brewery St. Louis Baldwinsville Williamsburg Los Angeles Fort Collins Newark Cartersville Fairfield Merrimack Houston Columbus Jacksonville Total
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During 2007, other than the import brands, approximately 94% of the beer sold by ABI, measured in barrels, reached retail channels through more than 600 independent wholesalers. Abs has a formal, written distribution agreement (the Equity Agreement) with each of these wholesalers. Each Equity Agreement generally specifies the territory in which the wholesaler is permitted to sell Abs products, the brands that the wholesaler is permitted to sell, performance standards applicable to the wholesaler, procedures to be followed by the wholesaler in connection with the sale of the distribution rights, and circumstances upon which the distribution rights may be terminated. The remainder of ABIs US beer sales in 2007 were made through 13 branches, owned directly or indirectly by ABI, that perform similar sales, merchandising, and delivery services as the independent wholesalers in their respective areas. ABIs peak selling periods are the second and third quarters.
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Import brands are distributed through a combination of Abs wholesalers as well as non-equity wholesalers under new or pre-existing arrangements in place at the time Absolute began importing such brand.
Performance overview
Absolute has achieved stable top-line growth over the past 3 years (3.8% CAGR) sustained by volume (2.4% CAGR) and price increases. Operating margins are stabilising despite a challenging cost environment, with an EBITDA margin (adjusted for non-recurring items) between 23-24% in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Cash flow generation has remained strong with operating cash flow before change in working capital of c. $3.0bn in 2007 and c. $2.5bn in 2006). On February 21, 2008 Abs management reviewed the company's strategies to accelerate US beer sales and profitability, and reaffirmed the company's 7 to 10% long-term earnings growth objective. The company has renewed its marketing messages, and redirected and enhanced its marketing and media resources to meet the demands of a changing marketplace. The company plans to increase total media spending and will focus its national media spending on fewer brands. In addition to volume, Abs management plans to increase focus on cost management to accelerate US beer profit growth. Abs expects a strong revenue per barrel performance in 2008, with the increase on core brands greater than in 2007.
Exhibit 10.3 Abs key historical financials
$mm
Net sales
2004A
14,934
2005A
15,036
2006A
15,717
2007A
16,686
(9,607) (63.9%)
3,571 23.7%
% margin Depreciation & Amortisation % sales Taxes Net capex % sales Decrease (increase) in NWC % sales Source: Abs reports
(7.2%)
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EBITDA does not include equity income. Adjusted for non-recurring items: Litigation settlement of $(105)mm in 2005 and Gain on sale of distribution rights of $27mm in 2007
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14.9 28.8%
15.0
15.7
16.7
23.7%
23.6%
23.2%
4.3
3.6
3.7
3.9
2004A
2005A
2006A
2007A
Source: Abs reports Note: EBITDA does not include equity income
As shown below, Abs business breakdown has remained relatively steady since 2004, with Domestic Beer accounting for 75% of net sales and 84% of pre-tax earnings in 2007.
Exhibit 10.5 Abs breakdown of revenues and profit
2004A
International beer 6% Entertainment 7% Packaging 10%
2007A
International beer 7% Entertainment 8% Packaging 11%
Net sales
Domestic beer 78% Domestic beer 75%
Total = $14,934mm
Total = $16,686mm
2004A
International beer 3% Packaging 4% Entertainment 5%
2007A
International beer 3% Packaging 5% Entertainment 8%
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Total = $2,999mm
Total = $2,423mm
Source: Abs reports Note: Does not include equity income (net of tax) of $404.1mm in 2004 and $662.4mm in 2007 Includes $388mm in 2004 and $509mm in 2007 of net sales reported under Corporate and Eliminations, not reflected in presented breakdown Includes $(748)mm in 2004 and $(893)mm in 2007 of EBITDA reported under Corporate and Eliminations, not reflected in presented breakdown
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Brands
The table below shows examples of Anheuser-Buschs key brands. Budweiser family Budweiser
Budweiser is a Regular American-style lager, created in 1876 by company founder Adolphus Busch. It is a medium-bodied, flavourful, crisp and pure beer with fresh and subtle fruit notes, a delicate malt sweetness and balanced bitterness for a clean, snappy finish. Brewed using a blend of imported and classic American aroma hops, and a blend of barley malts and rice. Budweiser is brewed with timehonoured methods including kraeusening for natural carbonation and beech wood ageing. Throughout its history, Budweiser has had spectacular and very successful advertising (e.g. New York Citys Times Square as early as 1902, or the Whassup! campaign that won the Grand Prix award in 2001 at the 48th. Annual International Advertising Festival in Cannes). Budweiser has been an Olympic supporter since 1984, is currently the Official International Beer sponsor of the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, and is the Official Beer of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa.
Bud Light
Bud Light is a Light American-style lager, created in 1982. It has a light-bodied brew with a fresh, clean and subtle hop aroma, delicate malt sweetness and crisp finish. Bud Light is currently a sponsor of Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League and a number of domestic teams within each league. Bud Light is the worlds best-selling beer. Its volume has grown more than any other Top 10 beer brand. Additionally, since 1997, Bud Light has grown market share among adults across virtually every age, gender and demographic group.
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Kirin
Kirin is a Japanese-style pilsner, brewed including two-row barley malt and the finest Saaz hops imported from the Czech Republic. Kirins proprietary yeast strain is used along with a special first press brewing process, which extracts the most flavourful portion of the ingredients.
Tiger Beer
Tiger Beer is a Pilsner-style, golden lager, with a smooth, full-flavoured taste, a classic hop character and malty body. It is brewed at the Asia Pacific Breweries Singapore brewery using a traditional bottom fermentation process and a combination of two imported hops. The naturally high carbonation produces a characteristically creamy head and a smooth, full-bodied taste.
Grupo is a holding company which owns 76.75% of Diblo, a sub-holding company which produces, distributes, and sells beer, and effectively represents Grupos operations. Grupo operates seven breweries in Mexico with a total annual capacity of 60mm hl. Originating in 1925, Grupo exports five brands to more than 150 countries, and is the sole importer of Abs products in Mexico. Grupo's top brand is Corna (the leading Mexican beer since 1981); other brands include Cerverza Pacifico, Grupo Estrella, Montego, and Grupo Especial. Grupo is the leading brewer in Mexico. Grupos licensed brands include Tsing, and water brands Santa Mara and Nestl Pureza Vital.
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Since an investment agreement in 1993, Abs has owned a 23.25% economic interest in Diblo and a 35.12% economic interest in Grupo. Thus, Abs directly and indirectly owns a 50.2% economic interest in Diblo but does not have control over Diblo or Gruppo. Grupo brands Corna
Corna is a 4.6% ABV Pilsner brewed in Mexico by Grupo. It is available in 150 countries and is the most exported beer from Mexico. It is most often enjoyed with a slice of lime.
Grupo Especial
After Corna, Grupo Especial is Grupo's most important brand. It is one of the ten most popular imported brands in the US. It is a Pilsner lager and is known for its full-bodied flavour.
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% growth p.a.
1,933 10.0% 8.0% 6.2% 6.0%
1,500
1,000
4.7% 2.9%
500
2.3%
Source: Plato Logic World Beer Report, 9th October 2007 Note: The number shown for 2010E growth is 2007E-2010E CAGR
MEMORANDUM
Among the various types of beer are lagers, dark beers, and non- and low-alcohol beers. Lagers are by far the most commonly consumed beers, although there is a growing market for other beer, albeit from a much smaller base. Beer is made from a number of ingredients including water, yeast, hops and malt extract. Water is the largest ingredient and many brewers use spring water to make sure it is as pure as possible. The beer production process consists of converting barley grain into malt, brewing and fermenting. Many brewers also add other ingredients such as spices, sugar, fruit and honey, to obtain their own unique flavour. As shown in the graph below, packaging in bottles represented in 2006 64% of the volumes, cans 20% and draught 11%. Packaging breakdown has remained relatively stable between 2003 and 2006. PET packaging has grown with a 28% CAGR in 2003-2006 but remains below 5% of total packaging.
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Exhibit 11.2 Global beer consumption split by packaging type (% share by volume)
2003
Draught 12.5% PET 2.5%
2006
PET Draught 4.6% 11.1%
Asia-Pacific 31.3%
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99
98
96 63 61 57 36 33
China
World share 20.7%
US
14.6%
Brazil
5.9%
Germany
5.8%
Russia
5.7%
Japan
3.8%
Mexico
3.6%
UK
3.4%
Spain
2.1%
Poland
1.9%
Competitive landscape
Fragmentation The global brewers sector remains fragmented. The chart below ranks the brewers by 2006 volumes, including equity interests and associated sales with the parent.
Exhibit 11.5 Top 10 brewers worldwide Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
MEMORANDUM
Company/brewer King Beer SABMiller Absolute Heineken NV Carlsberg Breweries Scottish & Newcastle Molson Coors Brewing Co. Grupo Tsing Femsa Total top 10
2006 sales (mm hl) 215.2 209.7 146.8 130.5 77.8 55.9 49.5 49.3 45.4 37.7 1,017.8
10
Source: Plato Logic World Beer Report, 9th October 2007 Excluding equity and minority investments
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The chart below ranks the top 20 beer brands by 2006 volumes.
Exhibit 11.6 Top 20 beer brands worldwide 2006 Sales (mm hl) 50.3 45.8 33.5 32.5 30.4 25.8 24.6 22.6 20.9 17.6 16.5 15.6 15.3 12.7 12.2 12.0 11.8 11.8 10.6 10.5 433.0
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Brand Lite Weit Skol Corna Snow Heineken Brahma Coors Light Miller Lite Asahi Super Dry Tsing Yanjing Bos (range Carling Black Label Amstel Baltika Carlsberg Schincariol/Nova Schin Zhujiang Polar (range) Total top 20
Company/brewer Abs Abs KGB Grupo SABMiller Heineken KGB Molson Coors Brewing Co. SABMiller Asahi Breweries Qingdao Brewery (Holdings) Corp. Beijing Yanjing Beer Group Corp. Abs SABMiller Heineken Baltic Beverages Holding Carlsberg Breweries Schincariol Zhujiang Polar
Abs brands
KGB brands
Buyers, sellers, distribution Supermarkets and hypermarkets form the leading distribution channel for the global brewers sector, accounting for 39.7% of the sectors volume. In comparison, distribution by on-trade outlets accounts for a further 32.6% of the global brewers sector by volume. Switching costs for buyers are not particularly high, which serves to increase buyer power in all markets. Retailers themselves are unlikely to be swayed by brand loyalty, and price sensitivity will be high. Additionally, while smaller producers and retailers operate in distinct businesses, larger breweries often integrate forwards into on-trade by operating chains of pubs or other outlets. Suppliers Suppliers to the brewers sector are the providers of the main inputs for beer, cider or FABs (e.g. malted grain, hops, apples), other flavouring, packaging such as bottles or barrels as well as machines, equipment and license providers and ICT manufacturers, etc. Traditionally, brewers operate non-vertically integrated businesses, buying ingredients like hops from independent producers (along with either barley, or apples in the case of cider) from farmers for processing at the brewerys own malting house, or malted barley from third-party
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maltings. Beverages would then be made from these raw materials and casked, bottled or canned on site. However, the scale of the multinational players means that some breweries in the global market now grow their own hops, or have their own apple orchards. The independent hop growers are numerous, and include some fairly small operations. Independent barley growers can find alternative markets; e.g. barley can be sold for animal feed and malted barley for distillation in the production of spirits. Forward integration into beer-making is also possible and raw material quality is highly important in this business: The end product is strongly influenced by the nature of the ingredients used. Challenges One of the major challenges to growth in the brewers sector comes from other alcoholic beverages. Wines and spirits form the main substitutes for beer, cider and FABs. From the point of view of retailers or on-trade businesses, the switching costs differ depending on perunit-volume prices, which are usually higher for spirits or wine than beer or cider. It is also difficult to be conclusive about the benefits of the alternatives: e.g. not only beers but also champagnes and white wines are optimally stored in chilled cabinets, which makes them more expensive to store; more concentrated forms of alcohol (spirits) may offer better returns on shelf space than higher-volume beers but some on-trade establishments, such as pubs, would find it difficult to operate without selling beer. From the point of view of the consumer, there are some differences between the ways different alcoholic beverages are used, but many consumption decisions are a matter of purely personal tastethis makes beer, cider or FABs vulnerable to the threat of other alcoholic beverages.
Market outlook
Volume growth opportunities remain mostly in the emerging markets The highest rates of volume growth are currently found in emerging beer markets in Central Asia, Latin America, Africa and parts of Central Eastern Europe. As shown in the table below, there is a sharp contrast between emerging and mature market volume growth.
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TOTAL
1,286.7
1,683.6
1,931.5
2,162.0
3.0%
2.8%
Per capita consumption drivers Markets with low per capita beer consumption have higher growth prospects than markets with high per capita beer consumption. Drivers of per capita beer consumption include increased GDP per capita and markets where beer has the potential to take share from other alcoholic beverage categories, specifically cheap local spirits in certain emerging markets such as Russia, China and India.
Exhibit 11.8 Top 10 markets: Size, per capita consumption and growth
140
Germany
120 100 80 60 63 40 20 0 -6 -4 -2
98
UK
57 246
US
Spain
36 33
Mexico
Poland Russia
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Japan
61 99
Brazil Lower per capita consumption Higher expected beer volume growth rate China
348
10
12
14
16
18
20
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1000
China is a country with a strong growth in GDP per capita, which in turn drives growth in beer consumption per capita (as the product becomes more affordable). However, the base is relatively low: consumption per capita is c. 25 litres per year (compared to c. 85 litres in the US and c. 120 in Germany).
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