Probabilistic assessment of wind power production on voltage profile in distribution networks

Roberto Villaffila, Samuel Galceran

CITCEA-UPC, Departament d'Enginyeria Elctrica, Universitat Politcnica de Catalunya. ETSEIB, Av. Diagonal, 647, Pl. 2. 08028 Barcelona, Spain Tel: +34 934016727 roberto.villafafila@citcea.upc.edu

Birgitte Bak-Jensen, Peiyuan Chen, Zhe Chen

Institute of Energy Technology Aalborg University Pontoppidanstraede 101, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark

Stefan Srensen
HEF Net A/S Over Baekken 6, Boks 664 9100 Aalborg, Denmark

Abstract Distribution power networks are accommodating more and more generation and most of them are based on renewable sources, like wind power. Then, this new generation, generally known as distributed generation (DG), has a stochastic power production that affects technically the network in different ways. However, availability and power quality must be kept within standard limits. Deterministic approach can not cope with this issue and a probabilistic assessment is needed. Wind power has a high level of integration around the world. Then, its impact of voltage profile in a distribution network is analyzed. Keywords: distributed generation, probabilistic modelling, distribution network, wind power, voltage profile

like wind power and photovoltaic systems, which have a stochastic power production that can affect both grid operation and control [2, 3]. And most of the DG uses power electronics as energy converter interface to inject power into the grid and this can affect the control and operation of the network, too. However, both Transmission and Distribution Network Operators (TNO and DNO respectively) have to deal with this uncertainty regarding power control, and reactive and voltage control, respectively, in order to keep system availability and power quality within standard limits. Power systems with a high level of DG units based on renewable source need a probabilistic approach mainly to deal with their stochastic power production. Although probabilistic methodologies has been applied to power system analysis since 70 [5], TNO and DNO have been using deterministic analysis since it is easy and fast to get results. However, the deterministic approach is not considered enough to deal with the future power systems issues since they require specific values for loads, generation inputs and network conditions and they only calculate a specific state of the system (normally worst case situations). As power systems are shifting from passive to active networks, analysis techniques have also to evolve if the system frameworks change in order to be able to deal with the new matters [6]. Probabilistic assessment is useful to compare apparent effects of stochastic data set in order to determine the more likely effects in the system.

I.

INTRODUCTION

Traditional power systems have a hierarchical vertical structure, where control and operation are centralized and networks are a passive agent. However, liberalization of power sector and the development of new generation technologies lead to a shift towards a horizontal structure, with decentralized control and more active networks since a large number of Distributed Generation (DG) units are being connected to power systems at the distribution level [1]. DG integration affects the network technically in a number of ways [2] since current networks have not been designed taking into account this new power generation. Moreover, many DG units are based on renewable energy sources (RES),

Wind power represents the DG technology that has reached a great development and it is expected it will be widely introduced in power systems all around the world in a short term [4]. Wind generators impact is a growing issue in countries where it represents a high percentage of installed power, like in Spain, and of energy production, like in Denmark [9]. Then, new strategies are needed to accommodate wind power in normal operation. However, these strategies will be difficult to different countries since their regulation and network characteristics are different, like it is shown in [9]. Therefore, it is better to investigate the impacts of wind power integration in power systems from a probabilistic approach than a deterministic one [7], [8], in order to gain a thorough understanding of its impacts on power quality. This paper deals with wind power production and its impact on voltage profile in normal operation in a distribution network from a probabilistic approach. Real data from Danish DNO HEF Net A/S is used to assess wind power effect on voltage profile in distribution networks. A wider approach of DG impacts on distribution network will be considered in [10]. II. PROBABILISTIC APPROACH

1) Distribution network: Both restrictions and operation sets should be included in a probabilistic way for existing distribution system elements: nodes, lines, cables, transformers, etc. 2) Distributed Generation units: Probabilistic power generation of DG units should be affiliated to a geographic area pattern, its prime mover and its energy converter. Two types of DG units are distinguished: a) Non-dispatchable renewable: Their output is defined by the stochastic prime mover activity, which should be modelled as a random variable following a specific statistical distribution, and the energy converter technology used to inject the energy into the grid. According to the system analysis to be performed, an appropriate converter model should be used. b) Dispatchable non-renewable: Their output adapt to the variations of non-dispatchable ones, because the necessary equalization between generated and consumed power. Both kinds of DG units operate under the same market environment and are subject to random unavailability (due to equipment failures or maintenance procedures). But the control of non-dispatchable is normally focused to maximize their energy yield and the power output of dispatchable is defined by energy market mechanism. It is also important where these new DG units are connected to the grid. All these aspects can be also included in the system analysis. 3) Load: Energy demand depends on customer behavior according to the weather and time frame in a specific geographic area. Thus, it is important to know both the probabilistic load forecast and load shape, in order to ensure the balance between generation and demand. III. MODELING OF DG AND LOAD Probabilistic models need real data in order to be close to the reality. In order to assess the impact of DG units on distribution networks a simulation model based on data provided by Danish DNO HEF Net A/S has been developed, for both network and generation/load. The distribution network is located in the north of Jutland, Denmark. It is composed by several wind turbines placed in different sites, a centralized heat and power (CHP) like it is shown in Figure 1. The data provided are seven-month recorded power generation and load demand. All this data regarding DG units and loads require a previous probabilistic analysis to derive the models. This preceding treatment is needed for identifying time-frame dependencies, like weekday-weekend and summerwinter. A. Modeling of DG units As modeling process of DG units is broadly described in [10], only some aspects regarding wind power are commented as follows.

In order to deal with this issue, a tool has been developed since commercial tools can not completely cope with this approach. The tool has two important entities: probabilistic load flow and input data [7]. A. Probabilistic Load Flow (PLF) Input data is processed in order to analyze the steady-state of the distributed energy systems under uncertainty in energy generation and consumption. The steady-state conditions obtained by the probabilistic power flow provide the basis to the DG impact analysis studies. The input data are random variables with known probabilistic distribution functions (PDFs) and the results are also PDFs. There are two ways of performing a probabilistic power flow for power systems with DG, as it is explained in [10]: the analytical and the numerical (or Monte-Carlo method) formulation. Here, the latter method is selected. B. Input Data Input data, which let the PLF provide the corresponding output values, are formed by three entities: distribution network, DG units and load. As distribution power systems are spread in a given geographic area, it is necessary take into account some interdependencies from cyclic-deterministic phenomenon (time of day, day of week, season), considered location (city, rural, industrial) and random-stochastic phenomenon (weather conditions). These interdependencies not only appear for DG, but also for the loads and the grid. The weather and the time frame in a specific geographic area have influence on both energy demand (because it depends on costumer behaviour) and network availability, according to both DNOs restrictions and operation sets for a suitable network management. Thus, it is necessary to set up probabilistic models with interdependencies of all the entities [11].

economic and demographic factors which are inherent to forecasting methods in long-term planning. For deriving a probabilistic model of loads using a normal distribution it is necessary to considerer time frames, whose number depends on the statistic of the data. So, it is considered first to split up the year in season time frames, and within each season, one will distinguish a model for weekdays and another model for weekends. Then, within each of these models, a distribution for each hour will be derived. Moreover, load can be classified in three types: urban, rural and industrial, since each one presents a different pattern for a same time-frame. Thus, the previous explanation should be applied to each kind of load, i.e., probabilistic models for loads should be multiplied by three. IV. SIMULATION RESULTS

Figure 1. Distribution network

1) Wind power: Wind patterns may vary from year to year and from hour to hour. Then, the available wind power may vary, so it is better to have observations from several years to make a credible average than rely only on one year of measurements. The use of long-term meteorological observations from nearby weather stations to adjust their measurements is advisable to obtain a reliable long-term average. This long term data are also useful to capture the correlation between load and wind power, if it exists. Wind forecasting is economically important, because then wind power can be scheduled and then, it can take part in the electricity market, and in such case avoid financial penalties or unpaid power production. It also could save fuel for thermal power plants and the pollution would be reduced. However, this approach is beyond of this assessment. Wind behavior is influenced by many factors: terrain roughness, proximity of the sea, height of the site and atmospheric conditions. These are able to cause a quickly change in wind speed, and then the wind power production can change quickly in a short time period, so time frames are difficult to identify. Although it can be assumed there is seasonal and daily periodicity behavior and wind directions from neighboring areas can be also considered similar. The mean wind speed is related to the mean active power injected in the grid by wind turbines. So, mean wind speed is useful when comparing the different steady states of the grid for different cases. However, as wind speed for a concrete area is difficult to obtain, wind power model has been derived from active and reactive wind power production during the timeframe provided. Moreover, the technology of the wind turbine should be also considered for further analysis. B. Modeling of load As for DG units, the process of modeling the load is explained in [10]. Next some extra comments with regard to load are introduced. The load uncertainty can be short-term uncertainty and long-term uncertainty. The former is derived from environment factors and social aspects. The latter is mainly related to

The objective of simulation is to assess the effects of stochastic wind power production on network voltage profile. DNO must maintain the quality of power supply within the limits established by EN 50160 (see Table I). As inputs are probabilistic, outcomes are also probabilistic. Thus, the results will be the probability that power supply is beyond its limits.
TABLE I.
Voltage phenomenon Grid frequency Slow voltage changes Voltage sags (1min) Short interruptions (3 min) Accidental, long interruptions (>3 min) Temporary overvoltages (line-to-ground) Transient overvoltages (line-to-ground) Voltage unblance Harmonic voltages

EN 50160: VOLTAGE CHARACTERISTICS OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED BY PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS [12]

Acceptable limits 49,5 to 50,5Hz 47 to 52 Hz Rated voltage 10% 10 to 1000 times per year (under 85% of nominal) 10 to 1000 times per year (under 1% of nominal) 10 to 50 times per year (under 1% of nominal) Mostly<15kVa Mostly<2Uraredb Mostly <6 kVa Mostly 2% but occassionally 3% 8% Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) Measurement interval 10 s 10 min 10 ms Monitoring period 1 week 1 week 1 year Acceptance average 95% 100% 95% 100%

10 ms 10 ms 10 ms N/A 10 min

1 year 1 year N/A N/A 1 week

100% 100% 100% 100% 95%

10 min

1 week

95%

a. Low-voltage network b. Medium-voltage network

Simulations have been carried out in order to know the voltage profile. Results for two nodes of the network are shown following for the different time-frames considered. One node is number 5, which is origin of the feeder where the DG units are connected. And the other is number 15, which is the point of connection of a wind turbine.

Node 5 in winter weekdays Cumulative probability 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

Node 5 in summer weekdays Cumulative probability 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.025 1.03 Voltage (p.u.) Node 15 in summer weekdays 1.02 1.035

Node 15 in winter weekdays

Cumulative probability
1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

Cumulative probability

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

Figure 2. Cumulative distribution function of voltage at nodes 5 (up) and 15 (down) in winter weekdays.

Figure 4. Cumulative distribution function of voltage at nodes 5 (up) and 15 (down) in summer weekdays.

Node 5 in winter weekends Cumulative probability

Node 5 in summer weekends Cumulative probability 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

Node 15 in winter weekends Cumulative probability

Cumulative probability

Node 15 in summer weekends 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1.015 1.02 1.025 Voltage (p.u.) 1.03 1.035

Figure 3. Cumulative distribution function of voltage at nodes 5 (up) and 15 (down) in winter weekend.

Figure 5. Cumulative distribution function of voltage at nodes 5 (up) and 15 (down) in summer weekend.

According to EN 50160, voltage at every node for both low and medium-voltage networks must be within rated voltage 10% (see Table I). Then, simulation results must be within 1 0.1 p.u. Fig. 2, 3, 4 and show voltage cumulative distribution function for both 5 and 15 nodes. These figures mainly permit to assess the slow voltage changes. All the figures show that voltage is always within EN 50160 limits. Furthermore, the general value of voltage at these two nodes is in the range of 1 + 0.04 p.u. Then, power quality requirements are met successfully. However, it is possible to identify some differences. If we consider the probability that the voltage was 1.025 p.u., i.e., a variation of 2.5% from rated value, in the two nodes at different time-frames, we have different values. At node 5, 80% of the time in winter weekdays voltage is below 1.025 p.u. while in winter weekends it is less than the half. This dissimilarity is lower in summer, almost 70% for weekedays and 50% in weekends. The reason could be the load pattern. The difference between weekdays and weekends is higher in winter than in summer. Nevertheless, at node 15, the point of the connection for the wind turbine, there is not such difference (20% in winter and 10% in summer). However, at this node the probability of a voltage below 1.025 p.u. is always lower than in the origin of the feeder. This could be because wind turbine is connected at this node and it increases the voltage level. V. CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER WORK

However, further work should be done. First, it is necessary to validate the models. Later, it could be included the interdependencies between elements and split the load over the network and consider if it is urban, rural or industrial. Moreover, it could be also interesting to assess the impact of photovoltaic generators with a probabilistic approach since they are more and more connected to distribution networks. REFERENCES
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Transmission and Distribution Network Operators (TNO and DNO respectively) must maintain the responsibility of managing the grid and of giving service quality. When DG impact on power quality is known, it should permit to define both control and operation strategies for assuring power quality. As DG units are generally based on renewable energy sources, their power production is uncertain. Then, it has been justified that a probabilistic approach is needed. And probabilistic models for DG units and load have been derived. Simulation results have shown that voltage is always within standards limits. Then, wind turbines stochastic generation does not affect a lot power quality. Nevertheless, there are some differences in the nodes from winter to summer and from weekedays to weekends.