Professional Documents
Culture Documents
RPS Negative
RPS Negative....................................................................................................................................................1
A2: Economy advantage...................................................................................................................................2
Uniqueness........................................................................................................................................................3
Uniqueness........................................................................................................................................................4
Resilience..........................................................................................................................................................5
Economy turns..................................................................................................................................................6
A2: Economic competitiveness........................................................................................................................7
Manufacturing turn...........................................................................................................................................8
Manufacturing turn...........................................................................................................................................9
Competitiveness = myth.................................................................................................................................10
Competitiveness = myth.................................................................................................................................11
Competitiveness = myth.................................................................................................................................12
A2: US-EU Trade war....................................................................................................................................13
Alternate causes..............................................................................................................................................14
No escalation..................................................................................................................................................15
Protectionism turn...........................................................................................................................................16
A2: Agriculture...............................................................................................................................................17
Volatility not a threat......................................................................................................................................18
Volatility not a threat......................................................................................................................................19
A2: Food riots.................................................................................................................................................20
A2: Water fights..............................................................................................................................................21
A2: Water fights..............................................................................................................................................22
A2: Judicial smackdown.................................................................................................................................23
Alternate cause................................................................................................................................................24
No spillover....................................................................................................................................................25
No solvency – inconsistency inevitable..........................................................................................................26
Clarity impossible...........................................................................................................................................27
No impact........................................................................................................................................................28
Solvency.........................................................................................................................................................29
Solvency.........................................................................................................................................................30
Solvency.........................................................................................................................................................31
Wind power link.............................................................................................................................................32
States CP.........................................................................................................................................................33
Plan is Popular................................................................................................................................................34
“Claim credit” – politics.................................................................................................................................35
Federalism link...............................................................................................................................................36
Topicality........................................................................................................................................................37
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UMKC SDI 2008 Kearney/Ross Lab – RPS Neg
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Uniqueness
We are not in recession – sectors have declined but consumer growth and other
areas have the US economy looking okay.
The Times (London), Anatole Kaletsky, “Two sliding sectors do not a US recession make” June 16,
2008 p. ln
But is America really in recession? Experts seem to think so, including Alan Greenspan, Warren Buffet,
George Soros and Martin Feldstein, the chairman of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the academic
committee in Boston that determines business cycle dates. But where is the evidence for this belief? To be sure, housing and
finance, two important parts of the economy, are in serious trouble. Yet housing now accounts for only 3.5 per cent of GDP,
down from a peak of 6.5 per cent two years ago, so most of the pain has already been felt there (in contrast to the situation in Britain
and Europe). The financial sector is bigger, employing 5.9 per cent of American workers, but only a small proportion of these are
employed in cyclically sensitive jobs related to mortgages or wholesale finance. These two sectors between them employ
far fewer people than the manufacturing and tradeable service industries that are benefiting from the
cheap dollar. And thus far the troubles in US banking and construction have been almost exactly offset by gains in America's
booming international trade. There is a world of difference between a dislocation confined to only one or two parts of the economy,
such as housing and finance, and a generalised economic decline. Remember the official definition of recession devised by the
NBER: "A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in
industrial production, employment, real income and wholesale-retail trade. A recession influences the economy broadly
and is not confined to one sector." The difference between a general recession and a sectoral slowdown is
not just a semantic quibble. For businesses and workers, a slowdown is a period of weak growth, modest job losses and
disappointing profits; a recession is marked by mass unemployment and widespread bankruptcies. For the
financial markets, the two have totally opposite implications. In a recession, share prices collapse and the only safe assets are
government bonds; in a slowdown, there are big shifts in relative performance between stock market sectors, but equities generally
do well (as they did in the late 1990s and late 1980s) while safety first bond investors suffer enormous losses, as they did in 1994-95
and 1986 87. What, then, is the evidence of America moving into recession? Looking at the statistics used
by the NBER, there is little or none - at least so far. GDP has continued to grow, albeit slowly, in the past two
quarters and almost certainly will accelerate in the current quarter because of booming exports; industrial
production has been positive, as have real income and whole-retail trade. Employment has fallen slightly, but by
nowhere near as much as in the mildest of past recessions. Reliable high-frequency indicators, such as the monthly purchasing
managers' surveys, point to continuation of modest growth. Most importantly, consumer spending has remained
robust. American consumers, far from cutting back to bare essentials as was expected by bearish commentators after the credit crunch, are actually increasing their
spending. The evidence of this, contained in the strong retail sales figures for May published last Thursday, was by far the most important economic news of the past few weeks.
Yet these figures received almost no media coverage and little market attention. Yet May's retail sales figures revealed a picture completely at odds with conventional wisdom
about the US economy. Despite the jump in energy prices and the related collapse in measures of consumer confidence, retail sales rose by 1.1 per cent on the month, the
strongest gain since last November. Sales adjusted for inflation and excluding food and energy also showed gains much stronger than expected. Also April's sales, initially
thought to have fallen, were revised upwards to show a significant gain - and the two-month average of these volatile figures suggested that growth in the US consumer
economy is now similar to the rate a year ago, before the sub-prime crisis and credit crunch. This conclusion is not based on one set of good retail sales statistics, but includes
stronger-than-expected recent figures on industry sales, stocks, imports, exports, purchasing managers' surveys and even home sales. But in saying this, am I not forgetting
about the dreadful employment figures published last Friday, which triggered the collapse of the dollar I mentioned at the start? Not at all. Despite the shock-horror headlines
about a terrifying leap in unemployment from 5 to 5.5 per cent, employment figures for May were quite strong and fully consistent with the message of economic acceleration.
Rates of unemployment are irrelevant in timing the economic cycle, since they are a lagging indicator, turning some six to nine months after the economy as a whole.
Meanwhile, the job creation figures, which do reflect current economic conditions, showed a modest decline of 49,000 in payroll employment, exactly in line with expectations
and consistent with the economy growing at about 1.5 per cent, just slightly below the 2 per cent trend rate of productivity growth. Of course May's strong retail sales were due
in part to the tax rebates of $600 to $2,000 per household from the US Treasury from last month. Many analysts, therefore, dismissed the gains as misleading. But this was the
wrong response. The role of tax cuts in boosting consumer spending is a reason for optimism, not scepticism, about the economic outlook. The tax rebates were designed to
boost consumer spending and that is why we have always expected (in line with the Fed and the US Treasury) to see economic recovery from this summer. Retail sales figures
have now shown that the US tax cuts are working as planned. They will temporarily boost consumption - and by the time that this temporary tax boost runs out around
Christmas, the US economy will be starting to enjoy the benefits of lower interest rates, operating with a lag of 12 to 18 months. In much of this discussion, my optimism on US
economic statistics has been qualified by the weasel words "so far". But this can change. Until this month, sceptics could predict that trouble lay ahead for America once
consumers finally realised that their credit had run out. But the strong consumer response to the $110 billion tax rebate programme changes the balance of this argument.
With the rebates flowing into bank accounts and boosting real disposable incomes, the period of greatest
risk for the US economy has passed. For the next two quarters, disposable incomes will rise at an annualised rate of 8 per
cent or more and, given the normal lags between money appearing in bank accounts and flowing into shop tills, the tax rebates will
guarantee decently strong retail spending between now and Christmas - maybe a temporary consumer boom. If there were
going to be a US recession in response to the credit crisis, it would have started by now. So let me stick
my neck out and say without qualification - the US economy is out of the woods.
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Uniqueness
The economy is looking to continue rebounding and growing.
Investor's Business Daily, “What Recession?” June 2, 2008 p. ln
The fact is that real GDP, viewed on a year-over-year basis, increased 2.5% in this year's first quarter --
the same as in last year's fourth. (Year-over-year comparisons, not quarter-to-quarter, are most telling.)
Thanks to the weaker dollar, the U.S. factory sector -- excluding automakers -- isn't doing too badly
either. Believe it or not, we're in the middle of an export boom, with double-digit gains posted the last 16
months in a row. Last week's revision of first-quarter (month-to-month) GDP growth to 0.9% from 0.6%
was due almost entirely to trade. And despite the slowdown in the overall economy, industrial output is
still up 1.3% so far this year -- not a sign of disaster. As for jobs, it's true that, since the start of the year,
some 220,000 nonfarm positions have been shed. But even that is moderating. In April, analysts expected
nearly 80,000 jobs would be lost; the reality was a far-smaller 20,000. And year over year, the number of
jobs is still rising. This is key, since we've never had a recession in which jobs kept growing. Yes,
unemployment at 5% is up a little more than half a percentage point from its cyclical low. But it's also
below the 5.4% average for the last 20 years. In any other year, this would be called dangerously low.
And though weak, aggregate hours worked, another key indicator, are also still on the rise. Even some of
the most troubled parts of the economy show signs of bottoming. New-home sales surprised everyone by
rising last month (though they're still off sharply from a year ago). Core inflation remains a tame 2%. And
real disposable personal income -- what you keep after taxes -- is growing at a 1.6% rate. As for the stock
market, it still looks like it bottomed two months ago. In short, while a recession is still possible, it hasn't
happened yet -- and every day that passes makes it less likely, not more. Don't get us wrong, the current
gloom is not without reason. But it's just that: gloom, not reality. Fact is, we're still in an expansion, albeit
a weak one. And with last year's Fed rate cuts about to kick in and continued stimulus from President
Bush's tax rebate and cuts, we could see a surprisingly strong economy later this year.
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Resilience
High oil prices are not cause for concern – economies are insulated from negative
effects.
Economist.Com, “Despite a dip, a record is on the horizon” October 24, 2007 p. ln
Despite such assurances, speculators continue to bet that prices will march upwards. But what would
$100 a barrel mean for the world economy? Price shocks can certainly cripple economies, but that does
not mean they always will do so. In the past, spikes in the price of oil have created a "waiting" effect,
where firms stall investment to see if prices will fall back. The impact can seep through the economy,
affecting everything from industrial production to credit cards. Worst cases can lead to recession or the
dreaded "stagflation", when inflation soars and growth sputters. This time, however, could be different.
Adjusted for inflation, the $100 barrel would not exceed the record set in 1980. Also, big economies
today are generally better insulated from oil-price fluctuations. Developed countries use half as much oil
per real dollar of GDP as in the mid-1970s, thanks to improved energy efficiency. This year the price of
oil has increased by about 70% since January without stunting economic growth in America. Not only
could the world withstand higher prices, some argue that further increases would be beneficial. A growing
number of economists suggest that pricier oil is healthy, particularly for the environment. But the rise
must be gradual and predictable so that economies can adjust. Large and sudden increases are the ones
that tend to create recessions.
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Economy turns
RPS kills consumer confidence.
EEI, Edison Electric Institute, 12/1/07. “Oppose the 15% Federal RPS Mandate in the Energy Bill.”
http://www.eei.org/industry_issues/electricity_policy/federal_legislation/EEI_RPS.pdf
Such a federal RPS mandate would raise electricity prices for consumers; upset ongoing renewable energy
programs in the states; create winners and losers among states, electricity generators and electricity suppliers; and
impose new burdens on electric reliability. Moreover, an RPS is not a solution to achieving energy
independence. The federal RPS mandate should be opposed for the following reasons: The RPS mandate could cost
electricity consumers billions of dollars in higher electricity prices, with no guarantee that additional
renewable generation will actually be developed.
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Manufacturing turn
Federal RPS pushes domestic business overseas.
William Yeatman, Energy Policy Analyst at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and Myron Ebell, Director of Energy and
Global Warming Policy at CEI, Competitive Enterprise Institute, “Gone with the Wind: Renewable Portfolio Standard Threatens
Consumers and the Industrial Heartland” June 12, 2007
Although 21 states have already passed a renewable portfolio standard, this is not an argument in favor of a federal RPS. These
RPS states tend to have a much higher potential for renewable energy, less energy-intensive
manufacturing, or both. In the RPS states that do have considerable manufacturing, the effect of adopting
an RPS has been to raise electricity prices and push manufacturing into states or other countries with
lower electricity prices. Therefore, a federal RPS would require states with low electricity prices and
proportionately lower renewable energy potential, such as is found in our industrial heartland, to raise electricity
prices to a level that would force their industries to migrate overseas to countries with cheaper energy
rates and no renewable portfolio standards.
State RPS systems do NOT force out countries – targeting low-cost regions with low-
wind-energy potential would be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
William Yeatman, Energy Policy Analyst at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and Myron Ebell, Director of Energy and
Global Warming Policy at CEI, Competitive Enterprise Institute, “Gone with the Wind: Renewable Portfolio Standard Threatens
Consumers and the Industrial Heartland” June 12, 2007
Regions With a Comparative Disadvantage. By and large, states
that have adopted renewable portfolio standards
were already burdened with high electricity rates; most of them also have high wind potential. But not
every state suffers high electricity costs, nor is every state endowed with windy plains. For example, the
Southeast is a region where consumers enjoy some of the lowest electricity rates in the land, largely due to reliance on coal-fired
generation. On the other hand, the Southeast has the least wind potential in the country, closely followed by the Midwest. The
impact of a federal RPS on manufacturing regions with low electricity costs and low wind energy
potential promises to raise electricity rates considerably. (Map 4) Map 4 - U.S. Commerce Department Industry
Specialization Index, Manufacturing 6 According to the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis’ industry
specialization index, which measures states’ level of industrial specialization, the Upper Midwest and the Southeast are more
dependent on the manufacturing sector than other regions. Although manufacturers have moved their factories from
states with high electricity costs to these states with lower electricity costs, a federal RPS would then tend
to drive these industries to foreign countries with lower electricity rates. Conclusion. Depending on the current
cost of electricity and renewable energy potential, the economic impact of a federal renewable portfolio standard is
modest in some regions of the country and dire in others. State legislators have weighed the economic costs and benefits of an RPS
in their states and acted accordingly. Congress should not impose a federal renewable portfolio standard on those
states that have correctly judged that such a mandate would raise their consumer electricity prices and
destroy jobs in energy-intensive industries. While Members of Congress from some regions of the country may be
tempted to economically disadvantage states in other regions by voting for a federal RPS, they should recognize that it is not in
the nation’s interest to undermine any of our manufacturing industries.
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Manufacturing turn
Manufacturing competitiveness key to the economy.
Jeff Faux, president of the Economy Policy Institute, "Why U.S. Manufacturing Needs A “Strategic
Pause” in Trade Policy" June 21, 2001
But as Figure 1 shows, job loss in manufacturing is a trend of two decades. It reflects the deterioration in the American industrial
base, which has now reached crisis proportions. Why does it matter? For several reasons: · Manufacturing is the
overwhelming source of productivity improvements and technological innovation in the U.S. economy. If
manufacturing were removed from the national productivity numbers, America would be left with a largely
stagnant economy. · Manufacturing is the traditional ladder of upward mobility for non-college graduates, who still make up the
majority of U.S. workers. It provides the high wage jobs that can lift people into the middle class. It is also a traditional means for
immigrants to assimilate into the economy. · It is critical for the diffusion of innovation. Without a healthy steel industry,
for example, the U.S. auto and aerospace industries would be laggards in the competitive race to produce new products with the
next generation of lightweight metals. · A strong industrial base has been essential for national defense throughout history.
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Competitiveness = myth
Competitiveness does not equate to corporation domination – market success is not
zero-sum
Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Foreign Affairs
March, 1994 ln
Moreover, countries do not compete with each other the way corporations do. Coke and Pepsi are almost
purely rivals: only a negligible fraction of Coca-Cola's sales go to Pepsi workers, only a negligible
fraction of the goods Coca-Cola workers buy are Pepsi products. So if Pepsi is successful, it tends to be at
Coke's expense. But the major industrial countries, while they sell products that compete with each other,
are also each other's main export markets and each other's main suppliers of useful imports. If the
European economy does well, it need not be at U.S. expense; indeed, if anything a successful European
economy is likely to help the U.S. economy by providing it with larger markets and selling it goods of
superior quality at lower prices.
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Competitiveness = myth
International market competition has little effect on the economy
Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Foreign Affairs
March, 1994 ln
It's important to notice, however, that the size of this lag depends not only on the amount of devaluation
but on the share of imports in spending. A 10 percent devaluation of the dollar against the yen does not
reduce U.S. real income by 10 percent -- in fact, it reduces U.S. real income by only about 0.2 percent
because only about 2 percent of U.S. income is spent on goods produced in Japan. There is no reason,
however, to leave this as a pure speculation; it can easily be checked against the data. Have deteriorating
terms of trade in fact been a major drag on the U.S. standard of living? Or has the rate of growth of U.S.
real income continued essentially to equal the rate of domestic productivity growth, even though trade is a
larger share of income than it used to be? To answer this question, one need only look at the national
income accounts data the Commerce Department publishes regularly in the Survey of Current Business.
The standard measure of economic growth in the United States is, of course, real GNP -- a measure that
divides the value of goods and services produced in the United States by appropriate price indexes to
come up with an estimate of real national output. The Commerce Department also, however, publishes
something called "command GNP." This is similar to real GNP except that it divides U.S. exports not by
the export price index, but by the price index for U.S. imports. That is, exports are valued by what
Americans can buy with the money exports bring. Command GNP therefore measures the volume of
goods and services the U.S. economy can "command" the nation's purchasing power rather than the
volume it produces. n3 And as we have just seen, "competitiveness" means something different from
"productivity" if and only if purchasing power grows significantly more slowly than output. Well, here
are the numbers. Over the period 1959-73, a period of vigorous growth in U.S. living standards and few
concerns about international competition, real GNP per worker-hour grew 1.85 percent annually, while
command GNP per hour grew a bit faster, 1.87 percent. From 1973 to 1990, a period of stagnating living
standards, command GNP growth per hour slowed to 0.65 percent. Almost all (91 percent) of that
slowdown, however, was explained by a decline in domestic productivity growth: real GNP per hour
grew only 0.73 percent. Similar calculations for the European Community and Japan field similar results.
In each case, the growth rate of living standards essentially equals the growth rate of domestic
productivity -- not productivity relative to competitors, but simply domestic productivity. Even though
world trade is larger than ever before, national living standards are overwhelmingly determined by
domestic factors rather than by some competition for world markets. How can this be in our
interdependent world? Part of the answer is that the world is not as interdependent as you might think:
countries are nothing at all like corporations. Even today, U.S. exports are only 10 percent of the value-
added in the economy (which is equal to GNP). That is, the United States is still almost 90 percent an
economy that produces goods and services for its own use. By contrast, even the largest corporation sells
hardly any of its output to its own workers; the "exports" of General Motors -- its sales to people who do
not work there -- are virtually all of its sales, which are more than 2.5 times the corporation's value-added.
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Competitiveness = myth
Your “competitiveness” argument is based on meaningless rhetoric for three
reasons: 1. It is exciting, 2. It overlooks tough factors critical for solvency, and 3. It
is a useful distraction tool
Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Foreign Affairs
March, 1994 ln
The competitive metaphor -- the image of countries competing with each other in world markets in the
same way that corporations do -- derives much of its attractiveness from its seeming comprehensibility.
Tell a group of businessmen that a country is like a corporation writ large, and you give them the comfort
of feeling that they already understand the basics. Try to tell them about economic concepts like
comparative advantage, and you are asking them to learn something new. It should not be surprising if
many prefer a doctrine that offers the gain of apparent sophistication without the pain of hard thinking.
The rhetoric of competitiveness has become so wide-spread, however, for three deeper reasons. First,
competitive images are exciting, and thrills sell tickets. The subtitle of Lester Thurow's huge best-seller,
Head to Head, is "The Coming Economic Battle among Japan, Europe, and America"; the jacket
proclaims that "the decisive war of the century has begun . . . and America may already have decided to
lose." Suppose that the subtitle had described the real situation: "The coming struggle in which each big
economy will succeed or fail based on its own efforts, pretty much independently of how well the others
do." Would Thurow have sold a tenth as many books? Second, the idea that U.S. economic difficulties
hinge crucially on our failures in international competition somewhat paradoxically makes those
difficulties seem easier to solve. The productivity of the average American worker is determined by a
complex array of factors, most of them unreachable by any likely government policy. So if you accept the
reality that our "competitive" problem is really a domestic productivity problem pure and simple, you are
unlikely to be optimistic about any dramatic turnaround. But if you can convince yourself that the
problem is really one of failures in international competition that -- imports are pushing workers out of
high-wage jobs, or subsidized foreign competition is driving the United States out of the high value-
added sectors -- then the answers to economic malaise may seem to you to involve simple things like
subsidizing high technology and being tough on Japan. Finally, many of the world's leaders have found
the competitive metaphor extremely useful as a political device. The rhetoric of competitiveness turns out
to provide a good way either to justify hard choices or to avoid them. The example of Delors in
Copenhagen shows the usefulness of competitive metaphors as an evasion. Delors had to say something
at the Ec summit; yet to say anything that addressed the real roots of European unemployment would
have involved huge political risks. By turning the discussion to essentially irrelevant but plausible-
sounding questions of competitiveness, he bought himself some time to come up with a better answer
(which to some extent he provided in December's white paper on the European economy -- a paper that
still, however, retained "competitiveness" in its rifle).
International trade is not zero-sum – major nations are not competitive with each
other
Paul Krugman, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Foreign Affairs
March, 1994 ln
International trade, then, is not a zero-sum game. When productivity rises in Japan, the main result is a
rise in Japanese real wages; American or European wages are in principle at least as likely to rise as to
fall, and in practice seem to be virtually unaffected. It would be possible to belabor the point, but the
moral is clear: while competitive problems could arise in principle, as a practical, empirical matter the
major nations of the world are not to any significant degree in economic competition with each other. Of
course, there is always a rivalry for status and power -- countries that grow faster will see their political
rank rise. So it is always interesting to compare countries. But asserting that Japanese growth diminishes
U.S. status is very different from saying that it reduces the U.S. standard of living -- and it is the latter
that the rhetoric of competitiveness asserts.
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Alternate causes
Alternate cause - Boeing and Airbus.
The Globe and Mail (Canada), “Canadian hopes, global risks” July 14, 2008 lexis
Bombardier Click for Enhanced Coverage Linking Searchesis flying into some turbulent airspace as it
seeks to take on Boeing Click for Enhanced Coverage Linking Searchesand Airbus, the battling
powerhouses of the aerospace market. The U.S. government and European Union have been engaged in a
nasty trade war involving accusations and counteraccusations over subsidies for years. The World Trade
Organization is expected to rule on both trade actions later this year.
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No escalation
EU’s trade commissioner will not sanction over climate change.
Financial Times, Vanessa Houlder, July 1, 2004 lexis
New calls for trade sanctions against countries that spurn the Kyoto global warming treaty have been
rejected by Pascal Lamy, the European Union's trade commissioner. Such action would risk sacrificing
the EU's long-term climate goals "for uncertain and short-term benefits", he said. He also warned it would
be "counterproductive to contemplate retaliatory action" when Russia had said it would speed up
ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.
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Protectionism turn
US climate change policies increases protectionist sentiments in the US toward non-
regulated countries.
Christopher Berendt, Director of Environmental Market Services, Pace Energy Services, "Are We
Reaching the Sum of Carbon Federalism" April 2007
Other major hurdles for Congress to consider involve the role of emerging nations such as China and
India in the future scheme as they are now major global emitters of greenhouse gases. Historically, the
U.S. has been responsible for almost a quarter of the global emissions of greenhouse gases. However, by
the end of this year, China is expected by many to become the world’s largest annual emitter of climate
changing gases. In a competitive trade environment between the U.S. and China, already labeled by some
as inequitable in terms of currency valuation, market controls, and manufacturing bases, will the adoption
of a U.S. constraint on carbon further the divide? The potential for trade sanctions to be used to level the
carbon playfield is growing. In fact, precedent from a World Trade Organization (WTO) Tribunal exists in
support of tariffs based on environmental programs.
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A2: Agriculture
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Alternate cause
Alternative causality to a low rule-of-law.
Federal News Service, Hearing at the senate judiciary committee, "How the Administration's Failed
Detainee Policies Have Hurt the Fight Against Terrorism" July 16, 2008 lexis
Unfortunately, many of our detention policies and actions in creating the Guantanamo military
commissions have seriously eroded the fundamental American principles of the rule of law in the eyes of
Americans and in the eyes of the rest of the world.
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No spillover
Any court rulings would be narrow- no spillover.
Daniel A. Brownt, J.D. candidate, Seattle University School of Law, 2008; B.A., Spanish & Portuguese
Studies, University of Washington, 2005, 31 Seattle Univ. L. R. 707, Spring 2008
Yet inaction by Congress would unquestionably have profound effects. Professor Hellerstein, another
prominent tax authority, contends that if Congress does not act, thereby leaving the validity of state tax
incentives to the mercy of existing Commerce Clause jurisprudence, judicial uncertainty and
inconsistency will continue to undermine the legitimacy of state tax incentives. n200 He argues that it
would take decades for courts to definitively determine the general validity of the tax incentives that exist
in practically every state. n201 Moreover, even if the Court were to choose to squarely address the
question, it is unlikely that this would lead to a comprehensive resolution of the issue: the Court typically
confines its decisions to the facts of individual cases, thereby avoiding questions closely related to those
presented in the case before it. n202 Touching upon this very point almost fifty years ago, Justice
Frankfurter wrote: At best, this Court can only act negatively; it can determine whether a specific state
tax is imposed in violation of the Commerce Clause. . . . . . . Congress alone can provide for a full and
thorough canvassing of the multitudinous and intricate factors which compose the problem of the taxing
freedom of the States and the needed limits on such state taxing power. n203
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Clarity impossible
Clarity on the commerce clause will never happen.
Simon Lazarus, Public Policy Counsel to the National Senior Citizens Law Center, and Senior Counsel,
Sidley Austin LLP, "FEDERALISM R.I.P.? Did the Roberts Hearings Junk the Rehnquist Court’s
“Federalism” Revolution?" January 2006 http://www.acslaw.org/pdf/SL_Roberts_Federalism.pdf
To begin with, the task may simply have been undoable. The Rehnquist Court’s Lopez-Raich 180° was not the first failed attempt to
draw judicially manageable boundaries between federal and state spheres in the post-New Deal, post-World War II universe. In
1976, in National League of Cities v. Usery, the Burger Court, with then- Associate Justice Rehnquist writing the opinion, overruled
a Warren Court decision only eight years old, and declared state and local government agencies that performed “traditional
governmental functions” immune from federal minimum wage and maximum hour requirements.81 Nine years later, almost
precisely as fast as the Lopez-Raich turnabout, the Court junked this states’ rights initiative and overruled National League of
Cities.82 Writing for the Court, Justice Blackmun, who had concurred in the 1976 Garcia decision, explained that the “attempt to
draw the boundaries of state regulatory immunity in terms of ‘traditional governmental function’” had spawned so much confusion
as to be “unworkable.”83 From this perspective, the bold venture on which Rehnquist persuaded his four colleagues to embark in
1995 simply repackaged an idea that, like its predecessor, didn’t work because some allies soon concluded that it couldn’t work.
Despite contemporaneous favorable reviews by prominent academic conservatives of the value of
Rehnquist’s Lopez enterprise of establishing judicially enforceable state/ federal boundaries,84 the
undertaking was, simply, a fools’ errand from the get-go. These repeated failures to formulate durable
doctrinal solutions reflect deeper incoherence and inconsistency in the theoretical underpinnings of the
Court’s federalism efforts. Indeed, this foundational weakness has led to multiple reversals and anomalies
in “federalism” line-drawing exercises, of which the National League of Cities-Garcia and Lopez-Raich fiascos are only
the most widely noted. One example is the Rehnquist Court’s 2000 retreat in Reno v. Condon85 from Justice Scalia’s thunderous
1997 ukase against federal “commandeering” of state agencies and officials in Printz v. United States.86 Another, also discussed
above, is the longstanding disconnect between the Court’s hospitality to Supremacy Clause “preemption”-based suits against state
and local governments – usually brought by or on behalf of businesses – and its hostility to Fourteenth Amendment-based private
civil actions and §1983 suits generally – usually brought by or on behalf of traditional civil rights plaintiffs or entitlement
beneficiaries. Still another was the similar disconnect between with Rehnquist’ proclamation in Lopez of categorical limits on
Congress’ Commerce Clause authority, and his and the Court’s persistent refusal to apply similar reasoning to constrain spending-
clause authority – an area where, indeed, the font of effectively unconstrained congressional power is a decision by Chief Justice
Rehnquist himself.87
Court consistency regarding the commerce clause is impossible – the standards can
and will be used to tear legislation apart or be applied at random.
Robert J. Pushaw Jr., James Wilson Endowed Professor, Pepperdine University School of Law, 9 Lewis
& Clark L. Rev. 879, Winter 2005
At bottom, then, Lopez and Morrison rest upon the subjective conclusion of five Justices that certain
activities were not "commercial," did not "substantially" affect interstate commerce, and were historically
of "state" rather than "national" concern. Grant Nelson and I have long argued that, although the Court
reached correct results in Lopez and Morrison, its decision to apply three vague standards on a case-by-
case basis would have two negative consequences. n126 First, this methodology would lead to
inconsistent results that could easily be characterized as driven by politics or ideology. n127 Indeed,
several scholars suggested that Lopez and Morrison were arbitrary decisions motivated by five
Republican Justices' antipathy toward liberal laws that limited gun possession and that expanded women's
rights. n128 That accusation gained credence when the same five Justices, who are perceived as skeptical
of environmental laws, cast doubt on Congress's power to regulate certain aspects of water pollution.
n129 Conversely, conservative Justices might be more inclined to uphold federal statutes which
implement policies they support, such as tough criminal laws and bans on partial-birth abortion. n130
Second, and relatedly, Professor Nelson and I predicted that such common law development of malleable
standards would prove inadequate in the long run to sustain genuine doctrinal reform. n131 On the one
hand, if the Court so desired, it could easily cabin Lopez and Morrison to the trendy and largely symbolic
laws at issue in those cases (perhaps adding some similar recent "feel [*897]good" federal statutes, like
the prohibition on carjacking). n132 On the other hand, the conservative Justices could invoke the
standards of Lopez and Morrison to tear down major legislation that previously had been upheld, such as
that concerning civil rights and the environment. n133 Finally, the Court could steer a middle path,
proceeding on a case-by-case basis with no clear pattern.
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UMKC SDI 2008 Kearney/Ross Lab – RPS Neg
No impact
Other countries no longer model the United States government structure.
Newsweek 1/31/2006 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6857387/site/newsweek/
Once upon a time, the U.S. Constitution was a revolutionary document, full of epochal innovations—free elections, judicial review,
checks and balances, federalism and, perhaps most important, a Bill of Rights. In the 19th and 20th centuries, countries around the
world copied the document, not least in Latin America. So did Germany and Japan after World War II. Today? When nations
write a new constitution, as dozens have in the past two decades, they seldom look to the American model. When
the soviets withdrew from Central Europe, U.S. constitutional experts rushed in. They got a polite hearing, and
were sent home. Jiri Pehe, adviser to former president Vaclav Havel, recalls the Czechs' firm decision to adopt a European-style
parliamentary system with strict limits on campaigning. "For Europeans, money talks too much in American democracy. It's very
prone to certain kinds of corruption, or at least influence from powerful lobbies," he says. "Europeans would not want to
follow that route." They also sought to limit the dominance of television, unlike in American campaigns where, Pehe says, "TV
debates and photogenic looks govern election victories." So it is elsewhere. After American planes and bombs freed the country,
Kosovo opted for a European constitution. Drafting a post-apartheid constitution, South Africa rejected American-style federalism
in favor of a German model, which leaders deemed appropriate for the social-welfare state they hoped to construct. Now fledgling
African democracies look to South Africa as their inspiration, says John Stremlau, a former U.S. State Department official who
currently heads the international relations department at the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg: "We can't rely on the
Americans." The new democracies are looking for a constitution written in modern times and reflecting their
progressive concerns about racial and social equality, he explains. "To borrow Lincoln's phrase, South Africa is now Africa's 'last
great hope'." Much in American law and society troubles the world these days. Nearly all countries reject the United
States' right to bear arms as a quirky and dangerous anachronism. They abhor the death penalty and demand
broader privacy protections. Above all, once most foreign systems reach a reasonable level of affluence, they follow the
Europeans in treating the provision of adequate social welfare is a basic right. All this, says Bruce Ackerman at Yale University Law
School, contributes to the growing sense that American law, once the world standard, has become "provincial." The United
States' refusal to apply the Geneva Conventions to certain terrorist suspects, to ratify global human-rights treaties such
as the innocuous Convention on the Rights of the Child or to endorse the International Criminal Court (coupled with the
abuses at Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo) only reinforces the conviction that America's Constitution and legal
system are out of step with the rest of the world.
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Solvency
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Solvency
High natural-gas prices are pushing the market toward incentives even without an
RPS system.
Business Week Online, Robert McNatt, "Alternative Energy Vexes Autos and Utilities" July 11, 2008
lexis
The greening of the power business, or the move away from fossil fuels [coal at older plants and natural gas at newer ones], shows
up in the increasing use of renewable portfolio standards [RPS]. These state regulatory standards call for a certain share of energy in
each state to come from nonfossil fuels. The number of states with RPS has grown steadily, and now about 40%
of the U.S. electric load falls under states with them. The implementation of these standards is gradual, but, ultimately,
California is requiring 20% of its electricity to come from renewable energy by 2010 and is considering 33% by 2020, New York
has a 24% goal by 2013, and Illinois wants 25% by 2025. However, the costs of these mandates aren't immediately clear. "That
uncertainty could result in the chief credit risk for utilities -- that consumers could rebel at higher rates needed to bring power from
renewable resources online," says S&&P credit analyst Anne Selting. That risk increases in states that already have high energy
rates and have also imposed aggressive RPS. The high price of natural gas, however, is making investments in
renewable resources look better and better to utilities, even without RPS. "The higher the price of gas, the
higher the price of electricity will be and the better the alternatives look," said credit analyst Terry Pratt.
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UMKC SDI 2008 Kearney/Ross Lab – RPS Neg
Solvency
Uniformity is impossible – a federal one-size-fits-all policy breaks down due to the
deviating renewable capacity across the country.
William Yeatman, Energy Policy Analyst at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, and Myron Ebell, Director of Energy and
Global Warming Policy at CEI, Competitive Enterprise Institute, “Gone with the Wind: Renewable Portfolio Standard Threatens
Consumers and the Industrial Heartland” June 12, 2007
Determinants of RPS Impact. While a one-size-fits-all
federal RPS would impose uniform requirements
nationwide, the costs would be far from uniform. The effect of renewable energy targets on electricity cost is
determined chiefly by two factors—the cost of conventional generation and the renewable resource potential of the area in question.
The relationship of each factor to the marginal cost of an RPS is straightforward. It costs more to generate electricity from
renewable sources than from conventional sources. That is why significant renewable capacity is
currently being added only in states that have already passed renewable requirements. This is the case even
though most forms of renewable energy have received large federal subsidies for decades. For example, wind generation receives a
1.9 cents-per-kilowatt-hour production tax credit. (In 2006, the average cost of electricity was 8.37 cents per kilowatt hour.) The
first factor affecting the price of electricity in a state with an RPS is the state’s current mix of conventional sources which, as can be
seen in Map 1, varies considerably between the states. Map 1 should be compared with Maps 3 and 4. The regions of the
country that rely most heavily on coal-fired generation are generally also the regions with the lowest
electricity rates and the highest concentrations of manufacturing. This is not a coincidence.
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UMKC SDI 2008 Kearney/Ross Lab – RPS Neg
States CP
States can solve internationally - they are setting the stage now.
Barry Rabe, ASAP, Oxford University Press, Publius, June 22, 2007 lexis
Long before Arnold Schwarzenegger and Tony Blair joined forces to discuss possible cross-continental
collaboration on climate change, states had emerged as the dominant American players in climate policy
development. A small number of states began to explore this issue during the 1990s, but the proliferation of state engagement
clearly accelerated after the Bush administration decision to abandon the Kyoto Protocol and oppose significant policy proposals at
the federal level. As of 2007, more than half of them have active climate programs, many of which involve multiple
pieces of legislation. Collectively, these state efforts involve all of the climate policy tools that have been employed by the European
Union and other nations that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. In the area of renewable energy, twenty-three states
representing more than 55 percent of the American population operate renewable portfolio standards that
mandate a steady transition from conventional electricity sources to renewables (Rabe and Mundo 2007). In
carbon emissions trading, ten Northeastern states are part of an interstate body known as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI) that is constructing a carbon cap-and-trade program for that region. California and neighboring western states are exploring
the prospects for developing their own version of such a system or even establishing a partnership across the continent. In the area
of vehicular emissions, California in 2002 became the first Western government to impose carbon emission standards on new
vehicles. This legislation is designed to reduce carbon emissions by approximately 30 percent over the next decade and has been
formally embraced by eleven other states. Eleven states have established statewide targets to reduce overall greenhouse gas
emissions, including California, New Mexico, and New York. In California, for example, the 2006 Global Warming Solutions Act
requires statewide emissions to return to 1990 levels by 2020, with steep reductions in subsequent decades. The legislation
authorizes creation of multiple policy tools to seek emission reductions from every major sector, building on the extensive climate
policy infrastructure that was already in place (Adams 2006). Many of these programs remain in early stages of implementation,
making it difficult to assess their ability to stabilize emissions in a cost-effective manner. But states have clearly responded to
growing concerns about localized impacts of climate change and also frame their policies to achieve multiple benefits, including
economic development from cultivation of renewable energy and related environmental improvements such as reduction of
conventional air contaminants (Rabe 2004). Although much climate policy activity is concentrated among coastal states, an
increasingly diverse set of states have become active, reflected in the passage or expansion in recent years of renewable portfolio
standards in such states as Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Montana, Nevada, Texas, and Wisconsin, among others. In turn, multiple
states are increasingly working collaboratively, establishing common policies and seeing potentially significant advantages in
advancing regional strategies that operate across state boundaries. Consistent with the Schwarzenegger-Blair entente, states have
also begun to see themselves as players on the international climate policy stage, entering into discussions about
possible collaboration with Canadian provinces as well as members of the European Union. It is increasingly recognized that many
states generate substantial levels of greenhouse gases; if the fifty states were to secede, 13 would rank among the world's top forty
nations in emissions, including Texas in seventh place ahead of the United Kingdom and Canada. In many respects, this climate
policy innovation builds on existing state powers and experience but is tailored to the particular greenhouse gas emissions mix and
opportunities for blending emissions reduction and economic development in a given jurisdiction.
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UMKC SDI 2008 Kearney/Ross Lab – RPS Neg
Plan is Popular
Numerous polls prove plan is popular.
Joshua Fershee, Professor of Law at the University of North Dakota School of Law. 2008. Energy Law
Journal, Vol. 29, No. 1. “Changing Resources, Changing Market: The Impact of a National Renewable
Portfolio Standard on the U.S. Energy Industry.”
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1126729
Often lost in the debate about the value and appropriateness of a national RPS is that there is little dispute about the value and
appropriateness of renewable energy itself. Awareness that energy issues intersect with other key issues like national security and
climate change has never been higher. Support for renewable energy, at least as a concept, is overwhelming.198 A
recent poll indicates that 85% of those polled believe that existing federal incentives for renewable energy
technologies should be extended.199 Other polls have indicated support across the political spectrum for
renewable energy200 and, more specifically, a renewable portfolio standard.201
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Federalism link
A federal RPS undercuts state rights.
Edison Electric Institute, 12/1/07. “Oppose the 15% Federal RPS Mandate in the Energy Bill.”
http://www.eei.org/industry_issues/electricity_policy/federal_legislation/EEI_RPS.pdf
The RPS mandate undercuts or preempts the state renewable plans that already exist in 26 states and the
District of Columbia. If states choose a lower percentage requirement, a more measured timetable, or qualifying
renewable resources that do not comply with the federal mandate, they will be preempted. Every state with an RPS
program has chosen renewable resources that qualify for credits under their state program that would fail
to receive credits under the federal program. States also can modify their state programs to adjust to changing
circumstances, unlike the rigid, one-size-fits-all federal program in the House RPS provision.
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UMKC SDI 2008 Kearney/Ross Lab – RPS Neg
Topicality
RPS isn’t an incentive it’s a regulation – prefer this evidence it has an intent to
define.
Sam Schoofs, Intern for the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers. 8/6/04. IEEE, “A Federal
Renewable Portfolio Standard: Policy Analysis and Proposal.” http://www.wise-
intern.org/journal/2004/WISE2004-SamSchoofsFinalPaper.pdf
There are two main categories of renewable energy policies. The first category gives some financial
incentives to encourage renewable energy that includes tax incentives, grants, loans, rebates, and
production incentives [13]. Tax incentives cover personal, sales, property, and corporate taxes and they help to reduce the
investment costs and to reward investors for their support of renewable energy sources [12], [13]. As an example, 24
states currently have some form of grant program in place that ranges from as small as $500 up to $1,000,000 [13]. The second
category of renewable energy policies is called rules and regulations, which mandate a certain action from
an obligated entity. Included within this category are renewable portfolio standards, equipment
certification, solar/wind access laws, and green power purchasing/aggregation polices [13]. As an example,
equipment certification allows the states to regulate the performance criteria that equipment is required to meet in order to be
eligible for financial incentives [12]. Seven states currently have equipment certification programs in place [13].
37