Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: The Lessons of the Scarborough Shoal Standoff Carlyle A. Thayer April 15, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] 1.What'sthebiglesson/reminder/warninginthiscurrentstandoff?Whatmessageis China trying to send to the Philippines/region/US especially with the annual US PhilippineBalikatanmilitaryexercisesscheduledtobeginneartheSouthChinaSea startingnextweek? ANSWER: I think we should be cautious about attributing the Scarborough Shoal standofftoChinesemilitarystrategicintentions.TheScarboroughShoalstandoffisa direct result of the actions of civilian agencies asserting Chinese sovereignty and jurisdictionovertheSouthChinaSeaincludingprotectingtheirfishermen.Themain actor is China Marine Surveillance (CMS) and to a lesser extent the Fishery Law EnforcementCommand(FLEC).Thelessonofthisconfrontationisthatthereisagap betweenPhilippinedeclaratorypolicyandPhilippinecapacitytoenforcethispolicy. ThePhilippinesclaimsScarboroughShoalasanintegralpartofitsnationalterritory. ThePhilippinesalsohaslawsrelatedtothemarineenvironment.InthiscaseChinese fishermen broke the law with impunity and CMS and FLEC vessels prevented the Philippinesfromarrestingthefishermenandimpoundingtheirillegalcatch. China employs civilian paramilitary agencies because of the lack of a robust coast guardcapacitybythePhilippinesandVietnam.ThisChinesestratagemputstheonus on the use of military force on the South China Sea littoral states. The Philippines andVietnamareforcedtothinktwiceaboutusingmilitaryassetstoresolveamatter ofciviljurisdiction. The Scarborough Shoal incident does have strategic implications. It exposes weaknesses in the Philippine capacity to defend national sovereignty and protect Philippinesinterests.ChinasactionsunderminePhilippinerhetoricaboutdefending nationalsovereigntyincludinglawenforcementatsea. TheScarboroughShoalincidenthasverylittletodowithjointFilipinoUnitedStates military exercises Balikatan. These exercises have been deliberately kept out of disputedwaters.TheyrelatetotheMutualDefenseTreatynotlawenforcementat sea.ChinasactionsatScarboroughShoalexposethefactthatthemilitaryallianceis notdesignedtocopewithmaritimejurisdictionalandfisherydisputes.

2 2. What should the next steps be by China/Philippines/US/ASEAN in the nearterm and longterm to resolve this dangerous impasse and deal with future ones at ScarboroughoranywhereintheSouthChinaSea? ANSWER: China and the Philippines must enter into highlevel discussions to work out a diplomatic modus vivendi to prevent a reoccurrence. The Philippines should fully brief all members of ASEAN as well as the United States and its strategic partnersabouttheseevents.ThisissueshouldberaisedattheforthcomingASEAN RegionalForum(ARF)meeting.Inaddition,thePhilippinesshouldputthisissueon theagendaoftheARFIntersessionalMeetingonMaritimeSecurity.ThePhilippines cannot hope for a resolution of this issue but it can bring unwanted attention to Chinaanditsactions. TheASEANdraftCodeofConductmustspecificallyaddressquestionsofthisnature pendingaresolutionofconflictingsovereigntyclaims.Further,thePhilippinesshould push for a multilateral fisheries administration over the South China Sea as one of the cooperative activities under the Guidelines to Implement the Declaration on ConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea.MillionsofpeopleinAsiarelyonthefish stock in the South China Sea for their daily source of protein. The fish stocks are beingdepletedbyoverfishingandmarinepollution.Fishdonotrespectlinesdrawn onmapssuchastheboundariesofanExclusiveEconomicZone.Pendingsettlement of sovereignty disputes, the South China Sea littoral states should jointly adopt policiestoprotestfishstockandtoregulatefishing. In the longterm the Philippines must rededicate itself to building up an effective CoastGuardandNavytoprotectnationalsovereigntyinthemaritimedomain.The United States and other allied nations such as Japan, South Korea and Australia shouldassistthePhilippinesinbuildingupitsCoastGuardcapacity. 3.Thestandoffisbeingresolvedoutsideofanyeffectiveconflictsolvingmechanism, thereisn'tanyintheregion.Whatshouldtheregiondoaboutit? ANSWER:ThisquestionshouldbeaddressedbilaterallybetweenthePhilippinesand China and multilaterally by ASEAN members. ASEAN members should raise this in theirformalmeetingswithChina. The question of an enforcement mechanism as part of the ASEAN draft Code of Conduct(COC)isahighlycontentiousmatter.Indonesiainparticularhasbeenvocal inopposingit.TheScarboroughShoalincidentdemonstratesthattheCOCmusthave an enforcement mechanism pending the settlement of sovereignty claims. The ASEAN draft COC should address the question of fishing and the treatment of fishermenindisputedwaters. 4. The standoff again serves as a warning of the danger posed by the unresolved territorialriftsintheSouthChinaSea,cananyinvolvedcountrydomoretoprevent the eruption of any confrontation? Or should the region just live with it because thereisnowayasolutionwouldbeforthcominganytimesoon? ANSWER:ThisquestionmustbeaddressedatmultiplelevelsincludingtheEastAsia Summit.GreatdiplomaticpressuremustbeexertedonChinatospecifywithclarity the exact nature of its sovereignty and sovereign jurisdictional claims in the South ChinaSea.TheASEANdraftCodeofConductshouldsetadeadlineforallsignatories

3 to publish the precise nature of their claims in the South China Sea. These claims should be subject to review and even arbitral decision to ensure that they comply withinternationallawandtheUNConventiononLawoftheSea. China must face unrelenting diplomatic pressure from ASEAN and the regional communitytoexertcentralizedcontroloveritsvariouscivilianagenciesthatoperate in the South China Sea. There is growing evidence that the central government in Beijingiseitherunwillingorunabletoexerteffectivecontrol.TheCMStailwagsthe Chinese dog. As long as this occurs the CMS will use appeals to nationalism and defenseofChinesesovereigntytojustifyitsactions.Thismakesismoredifficultfor the central government to adopt more pragmatic policies. Chinas new leadership must be made aware of the counterproductive nature of the actions of CMS and FLECvesselsintheSouthChinaSea. The underlying trends are not reassuring. China is engaged in a major program to producemoreandmorecivilianparamilitaryvesselstoenforceitsjurisdictioninthe SouthChinaSea.Chinaisalsomodernizingandexpandingitsnavyandinparticular its naval base at Sanya on Hainan Island. At the same time both Vietnam and the Philippinestovaryingextentaremodernizingandexpandingboththeircivilianand military forces to defend national sovereignty. If the South China Sea can be comparedtoabathtubitisonlyamatteroftimebeforethereisacollisioninthis congested space. The incident at Scarborough Shoal is a harbinger of what is to come.Unlessthismatteriseffectivelyaddressedbytheregionsmultilateralsecurity institutionsthefutureportendsmoreconfrontationsandpossibleclashesatsea.