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India Research
April 12, 2012
Dealers Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open flat with positive bias tracking mixed opening in the Asian markets and positive closing in the U.S. markets yesterday. Asian markets fell broadly yesterday, extending recent steep losses, as fiscal concerns in peripheral European countries as well as fresh fears over dwindling global growth kept investors cautious. The US markets gained yesterday, rebounding from an extended losing run after Spanish and Italian bond yields fell which renewed hopes about a solution to the eurozone economic crisis and aluminum maker Alcoa Inc. reported a surprising profit. Statements made by Benot Coeur, a Board Member of the European Central Bank, also seemed to ease concerns over Spain. The Indian benchmark indices ended slightly lower yesterday mirroring negative sentiment on Wall Street overnight and caution prevailed ahead of industrial output and inflation data. The markets will now closely watch out for IIP data for February 2012 (Bloomberg estimate 6.7%) due to be released today. Also, initial jobless claims data for the week ended April 4 for the U.S. economy will be on radar. Markets Today The trend deciding level for the day is 17,198 / 5,227 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,320 17,441 / 5,263 5,300 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,198 / 5,227 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,077 16,955 / 5,191 5,154 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 16,955 5,154 S1 17,077 5,191 PIVOT 17,198 5,227 R1 17,320 5,263 R2 17,441 5,300
Domestic Indices BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
(0.3) (0.3) (0.6) (0.3) 0.6 (0.1) 0.2 (0.5) (0.9) 0.2
Chg (%)
(44.4) 17,199 (16.8) (40.1) (18.3) 37.9 (9.0) (50.3) (68.9) 11.2
(Pts)
22.8 11,789
Indian ADRs
News Analysis
Cement growth unlikely to sustain at double-digit levels Idea Cellular and ESPNcricinfo tie up to launch Dream Fields
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
544 885 74
Unchanged
2,383 11,065
NSE
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
Financial Tech Jet Air India Max India Kotak Mah Bank Crisil
Losers Company
India Cements Century Tex Reliance Cap ACC United Brew
Price (`)
747 359 188 560 1,072
chg (%)
5.8 5.3 3.6 2.7 2.6
Price (`)
97 345 361 1,237 513
chg (%)
(7.7) (6.2) (5.5) (4.9) (4.7)
Two years Demand demand CAGR States having elections growth (%) (%) U.P., T.N., Kerala, W.B., Haryana, Assam, Puducherry, Punjab + General 9.6 8.6 Election 0.9 5.2 H.P., Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland + General Election 7.2 7.6 11.7 9.4 9.1 5.7 14.3 (0.3) 6.8 8.8 6.1 8.2 10.7 9.4 7.8 7.6 7.1 5.0 6.6 4.0 U.P., Rajasthan, M.P., NCT Delhi, Mizoram, Goa, 7.4 Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim 9.6 Gujarat, Odisha, Bihar U.P., T.N., Kerala, W.B., Haryana, Assam, Puducherry, Punjab, J&K + 10.6 General Election 9.3 H.P., Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland 7.4 Gujarat, Rajasthan, M.P., NCT Delhi, Mizoram, Goa + General Election Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim + 9.9 General Election 6.7 Haryana, Odisha, Bihar T.N., U.P., Kerala, Punjab, Uttarakhand, W.B., Assam, Puducherry, Goa, 3.2 Manipur 7.8 Gujarat, H.P., J&K, Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland 7.5 Rajasthan, M.P., NCT Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram Maharashtra, A.P., Karnataka, Odisha, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, 7.1 Sikkim + General Election 9.4 Haryana, Bihar T.N., U.P., Kerala, W.B., Punjab, Uttarakhand, Assam, Puducherry, Goa, 10.0 Manipur 8.6 Gujarat, H.P., Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland 7.7 Karnataka, Rajasthan, M.P., NCT Delhi, Chhattisgarh, J&K, Mizoram Maharashtra, A.P., Haryana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, 7.4 Sikkim + General Election 6.0 Bihar T.N., U.P., Kerala, W.B., Punjab, Uttarakhand, Assam, Puducherry, Goa, 5.8 Manipur Gujarat, H.P., Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland Karnataka, Rajasthan, M.P., NCT Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram
Election states combined cement consumption as a % of total* 36.5 1.6 23.9 29.0 12.7 37.1 1.6 20.7 29.0 10.0 34.1 9.0 15.9 33.8 7.0 34.1 8.4 23.1 31.3 2.9 34.1 8.4 22.5
Source: Election Commission of India, CMA, Company, Angel Research, Note: *Based on FY2009 data as latest data excludes dispatches of ACC and
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Corporate News
M&M to consolidate R&D units, to roll out tractor soon Piramal Healthcare gets EU nod for orthopaedic product PSL bags `570cr order from IOC Strides Arcolab receives US FDA nod for vancomycin oral capsules
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Results Calendar
13/04/2012 16/04/2012 18/04/2012 19/04/2012
Infosys Crisil, MindTree HDFC Bank, HCL Tech, Infotech Enterprises Hind Zinc, Ambuja Cements, ACC, IndusInd Bank
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
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