TRNG I HC BCH KHOA TP.

HCM Khoa Khoa hc & K thut My tnh

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Tutorial 7 Questions UNCERTAINTY and IMPRECISION
Question 1. 1. Prove that: a. P(A | B A) = 1 b. P(X Y | E) = P(X | Y E).P(Y | E) c. P(Y | X E) = P(X | Y E).P(Y | E)/P(X | E) (the conditionalized version of Bayes' rule) 2. Show that the statement P(A B | C) = P(A | C).P(B | C) is equivalent to either of the statements P(A | B C) = P(A | C) and P(B | A C) = P(B | C) Question 2. This exercise investigates the way in which conditional independence relationships affect the amount of information needed for probabilistic calculations. a. Suppose we wish to calculate P(H | E1, E2) and we have no conditional independence information. Which of the following sets of numbers are sufficient for the calculation? (i) P(E1, E2), P(H), P(E1 | H), P(E2 | H) (ii) P(E1, E2), P(H), P(E1, E2 | H) (iii) P(H), P(E1 | H), P(E2 | H) b. Suppose we know that P(E1 | H, E2) = P(E1| H) for all values of H, El, E2. Now which of the three sets are sufficient? Question 3. Orville, the robot juggler, drops balls quite often when its battery is low. In previous trials, it has been determined that the probability that it will drop a ball when its battery is low is 0.9. On the other hand when its battery is not low, the probability that it drops a ball is only 0.02. The battery was recharged not so long ago, so there is only a 8% chance that the battery is low. A robot observer with a slightly unreliable robot observation system sends the information that Orville dropped a ball. The reliability of the robot observer is described by the following probabilities: P(observer reports Orville dropped ball | Orville dropped ball) = 0.8 P(observer reports Orville dropped ball | Orville did not drop ball) = 0.1 1

TRNG I HC BCH KHOA TP.HCM Khoa Khoa hc & K thut My tnh a. Draw the Bayesian network. b. Calculate the probability that the battery is low given the information of the robot observer. Question 4. In your local nuclear power station, there is an alarm that senses when a temperature gauge exceeds a given threshold. The gauge measures the temperature of the core. Consider the Boolean variables A (alarm sounds), FA (alarm is faulty), and FG (gauge is faulty) and the multivalued nodes G (gauge reading) and T (actual core temperature). a. Draw a Bayesian network for this domain, given that the gauge is more likely to fail when the core temperature gets too high. b. Suppose there are just two possible actual and measured temperatures, normal and high; the probability that the gauge gives the correct temperature is x when it is working, but y when it is faulty. Give the conditional probability table associated with G. c. Suppose the alarm works correctly unless it is faulty, in which case it never sounds. Give the conditional probability table associated with A. d. Suppose the alarm and gauge are working and the alarm sounds. Calculate an expression for the probability that the temperature of the core is too high, in terms of the various conditional probabilities in the network. Question 5. Given a fuzzy number A as presented in Figure 1. Calculate A/A.

Figure 1. The fuzzy number A -- End --