Australian Journal of Earth Sciences (2008) 55, (3 12)

Science of targeting: denition, strategies, targeting and performance measurement

J. M. A. HRONSKY1* AND D. I. GROVES2
1 2

BHP Billiton, Level 34 Central Park, 152 158 St Georges Terrace, Perth, WA 6000, Australia. Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia, and Redstone Resources Limited, Suite 3, 110 116 East Parade, East Perth, WA 6004, Australia.
Mineral exploration comprises three sequential steps: development of a business strategy, creation and application of a targeting model, and follow-up with direct detection in dened high-priority domains. The main geoscientic challenge is the conceptual targeting phase which can lower geological risk and ensure cost-effective direct-detection exploration. A fundamental tenet of conceptual targeting is that ore deposits are part of much more extensive systems, and hence that targeting must be carried out at global through province to district scales. The heterogeneous distribution of ore deposits and their power-law size frequency distribution in individual provinces leads to alternative Elephant Country and First Mover strategies, both of which employ conceptual targeting, but at different scales. The rst stage of targeting science involves development of robust, multi-scale targeting models for ore-deposit types, particularly larger examples. The targeting models can then be applied to identify specic targets by interrogating databases compiled as layers of spatially referenced key themes or parameters. At larger scales in immature terrains, a Hierarchical approach is commonly used to progressively reduce terrains and identify targets, whereas a Venn-diagram approach, the basis of most GIS-based prospectivity analyses, is more commonly used in mature terrains where spatial databases are of higher, more homogenous quality. Target ranking is best achieved using a multiplicative probability approach in which it is required that all essential processes in a mineral system must have operated to form a signicant ore deposit. In practice, one or more critical spatially referenced parameters are used as proxies for the essential processes to develop a target score, which is a semi-quantitative estimate of probability of the presence of a large ore deposit. Such target ranking can be used in both proactive ground acquisition and reactive submittal-based project acquisition. Once targets have been dened and explored, it is important that there is critical feedback on the robustness of the targeting exercise such that new information is used to build superior databases and/ or targeting models for future area-selection programs. KEY WORDS: area selection, mineral exploration, ore deposit, targeting.

INTRODUCTION
Mineral exploration, comprising an initial targeting stage (prediction) followed by a direct detection stage (detection), does not enjoy steady-state success. Rather, historically, there have been periods of accelerated discovery of mineral resources followed by prolonged periods where fewer major discoveries are made. This has been due largely to the periodic development of new techniques (e.g. ground geophysics, airborne geophysics, satellite-based remote sensing methods, low detection-limit geochemistry, new drilling methodologies) that signicantly improved direct detection, with some, particularly the airborne techniques, also indirectly aiding targeting via the generation of better constrained spatial geological datasets.

The late 1990s and early 2000s represented a period of signicantly decreased discovery of world-class deposits despite increased exploration expenditure early in the period (Schodde 2004). This most likely indicates that technologies currently deployed in exploration are reaching maturity and are increasingly incapable of penetrating the deeper or more complex cover below which the undiscovered deposits lie. Clearly, there is a need to improve critical directdetection technologies (e.g. 3D integrated imaging, more effective lower cost drilling, rened mobile-ion geochemistry), but there is arguably a more pressing need to develop more-sophisticated and predictive conceptual-targeting methodologies to ensure that the new improved technologies are applied in the mineral districts with the greatest potential of hosting

*Corresponding author and present address: Western Mining Services (Australia) PL, Suite 26/17 Prowse Street, West Perth WA 6005, Australia (jon.hronsky@wesminlic.com). ISSN 0812-0099 print/ISSN 1440-0952 online 2008 Geological Society of Australia DOI: 10.1080/08120090701581356

J. M. A. Hronsky and D. I. Groves

world-class ore deposits that meet modern metallurgical and environmental standards. This paper describes and discusses this targeting process as a prelude to most of the following papers, which illustrate varying approaches to conceptual targeting, or methodologies that support it, for specic metallic commodities or for particular mineralised terrains.

SCIENCE OF EXPLORATION TARGETING

Hronsky (2004) argued that exploration targeting was not simply the application of concepts, including both genetic and deposit models, from economic geology research, but was rather the integration of such concepts with those derived from other elds, such as geophysics, spatial analysis, mineral economics, decision science and probability theory, to deliver a business outcome. It is thus a high-level scientic discipline in its own right, being the critical conceptual phase in the semi-quantitative prediction of the probability of ore occurrence which leads to decisions on area selection. If it is done poorly, it is irrelevant how efcient and effective are the following detection stages of exploration. It is important to recognise that exploration targeting lies at the pinnacle of scientic endeavour in applied economic geology. This recognition provides a focus for the type of outputs that are required from the disciplines, such as economic geology, which feed into the science of exploration targeting. It also provides a banner under which activities and tacit knowledge in the eld can be communicated and transferred to the benet of the mining and exploration industry. Recognition of conceptual targeting as a science discipline and the training of high-quality personnel in its application will be critical to the success of future, more scientic and more cost- effective mineral exploration. The following sections set out very briey some of the key elements and concepts in the generic discipline of exploration targeting.

Figure 1 Hierarchy of scale-dependent targeting processes and parameters to be considered in erection of targeting models.

IMPORTANCE OF SCALE
The nal stage of mineral exploration takes place within a relatively small area that is effectively the depositscale setting of the mineral deposit type sought by that exploration. This relatively small area has been dened by successive integrated phases of exploration targeting from global through province to district scale (Figure 1), progressively involving geodynamic, tectonic and lithostructural concepts. It is a fundamental concept that the relative efciencies of both exploration targeting (prediction) and detection are scale-dependent. Orebodies tend to form as chaotic manifestations of much more extensive systems that are inherently more predictable at larger scales. As the scale increases, the number of datasets that are required to make a robust scientic decision on the prospectivity or potential endowment of a terrain is also inherently lower. At the global scale, the geodynamic and lithospheric setting within specic

time windows may be all that is required. For example, orogenic-gold deposits (Groves et al. 1998) in Archean greenstone belts would be selectively targeted in ca 2.7 Ga belts (Goldfarb et al. 2001) with short tectonic histories and a thinned lithosphere (Bierlein et al. 2006). However, at the province scale, more specic tectonic parameters and spatial datasets showing rstorder structures and lithostratigraphic packages will be required. For example, the provinces most likely to contain world-class orogenic-gold deposits should have curvilinear crustal-scale shear zones, dominant greenschist-facies domains and complex lithostratigraphic sequences, preferably with sedimentary sequences overlying volcanic successions (Groves et al. 2003). From district to prospect scale, more specic geological data that are spatially located with increasing accuracy will be required if predictive concepts are to be used. (Figure 1). Such data are seldom available at the prospect scale prior to discovery. Thus, exploration targeting (prediction) is progressively less effective with decreasing scale and is replaced by detection at the prospect scale (Figure 2a). As the targeted area is reduced by decisions at a progressively smaller scale, the exibility decreases and costs increase (Figure 2b), showing that the opportunity cost of poor initial targeting is high. An important constraint on the quality of exploration targeting decisions is the availability of high-quality geoscientic data, particularly reliable regionalgeological map datasets supported by robust geochronology at the global to province scale and high-resolution geophysical and remotely sensed datasets at the district to prospect scale. In developed countries, such as Australia, Canada and USA, targeting is more effective than in developing countries, particularly in Africa and parts of Asia, where data availability is poor or data are absent. However, datasets are commonly sufciently robust to dene prospective exploration areas at the global to province scales. One of the advantages of the recognition of exploration targeting as a high-level scientic discipline is that it allows denition of the critical datasets required and hence can aid in the formulation of strategic industry government and

Science of targeting

Figure 2 Contrast between global- to district-scale targeting and project-scale exploration. (a) Relative effectiveness of prediction based on targeting model and direct-detection exploration. (b) Relative exibility and cost of prediction based on targeting model and project exploration illustrating the high cost of poor targeting.

industry academia alliances to progressively build those datasets.

AREA SELECTION STRATEGIES

Area selection initially involves a number of businessrelated constraints. These include political decisions on which parts of the world are considered low to high risk in terms of political and economic stability, which types of ore deposits are considered suitable exploration targets based on company philosophy, and the threshold size that is acceptable for that ore deposit type given that approximately two-thirds of all mineral wealth is derived from a small number of world-class to giant deposits (Schodde & Hronsky 2006). These decisions are largely based on company size, and are commonly company specic, so are not considered further. Only the geological aspects of area selection are discussed below. A number of generic features of ore deposits have a signicant impact on the development of area selection strategies that, in turn, impact on exploration targeting. First, the spatial and temporal distribution of ore deposits is extremely heterogeneous (Groves et al. 2005), such that relatively few geological provinces are very

well endowed, whereas the majority contain only sporadic mineral deposits. Second, the size-frequency distribution of mineral deposits within any province shows a power-law relationship. The orogenic-gold deposits in the Kambalda St Ives district are shown as an example in Figure 3. Individual provinces also show characteristic power-law size-frequency distributions. For example, the Abitibi gold province of Canada and Eastern Goldelds gold province of Western Australia have about an order of magnitude more deposits at any given large size range than other Archean greenstone belts globally (Goldfarb et al. 2001). Petroleum basins exhibit similar relationships, with the Persian Gulf province also having about an order of magnitude more producing wells of a given reservoir size than in any North American basin. Third, the areal extent of the geological halo, or footprint, of an ore deposit represents the size of the ore system and is generally proportional to the size of the ore deposit within it. The implication is that the larger deposits are generally discovered rst in any district or province if all other factors are broadly equivalent. The history of discovery of the komatiite-associated Ni Cu sulde deposits of the Kambalda region, a newly recognised class of deposit in 1966 (Woodall & Travis 1969), is shown as an example in Figure 4. Similar patterns are recognised throughout Australia, for example in the historically important Broken Hill and Mt Isa basemetal provinces, the Kalgoorlie gold province, and the Hamersley iron province. The two main conclusions that can be drawn from the above are: (i) the best chances of discovery of a world-class deposit are to explore where world-class deposits are already known; and (ii) the largest deposits are generally discovered in the early phases of mineral exploration of a terrain. These conclusions provide the basis for the two basic area-selection strategies that are most successfully employed in mineral exploration: the Elephant Country strategy and the First Mover (or Fast Follower) strategy. The Elephant Country strategy essentially exploits the characteristic size-frequency distributions of metallogenic provinces. To be successful, several criteria need to be met. First, the targeted ore-deposit type must be one that actually clusters in provinces. Most deposits do, but there are some important exceptions such as Broken Hill-type base-metal mineralisation which tends to occur in one, or at most three, extremely large, isolated deposits in a terrain with otherwise small, relatively insignicant deposits (Walters 1996). Second, the known endowment characteristics of the province must satisfy corporate objectives in that it is a high-risk strategy to expect to discover a deposit that is much larger than has already been discovered in the province. Third, the targeted province must have some residual potential such as extension of prospective environments under inadequately tested transported cover. Finally, the exploration group must be able to perceive some competitive advantage in the province (e.g. improved deposit and/or regolith model or more sensitive geochemical or geophysical technique) as Elephant Country provinces are normally highly competitive in terms of ground acquisition.

J. M. A. Hronsky and D. I. Groves

Figure 3 Endowment (current reserves plus cumulative production) of orogenic-gold deposits in the St Ives region of Western Australia showing typical powerlaw size frequency of deposits at the district scale. Source: WMC Resources 2000 company data.

Figure 4 Endowment (current reserves plus cumulative production) of komatiite-associated nickel copper deposits in the Kambalda region of Western Australia against the year of discovery, illustrating that the larger deposits tend to be discovered early in the exploration history of a region. Source: WMC Resources 2000 company data.

The First Mover (or Fast Follower) strategy seeks to exploit the concept that the largest deposits will be discovered in the earliest exploration phase, and therefore by the rst exploration groups to move into the province. To be successful, two criteria need to be fullled. First, the exploration group must have the scientic capability to recognise new exploration environments with high endowment potential together with the ability to rapidly acquire ground within them. Second, they must be assured that the targeted province is genuinely immature in terms of its exploration history, either because it has not been explored previously, due to its geographic position or commercial/political issues such as native title, or because the introduction of new deposit models or exploration and/ or metallurgical technologies presents new opportunities. For example, the province may be under deep and conductive cover that could not be penetrated by preexisting geochemical or geophysical methods, or known deposits could have been unresponsive to known

metal-extraction techniques. An example of how new concepts and technology can revitalise a terrain is shown for porphyry copper deposits in Chile in Figure 5. Exploration companies must choose whether they wish to employ one or both of these strategies. In some cases, the choice of ore deposit type that is targeted will dictate strategy. The Elephant Country approach requires the company to have nancial capability and commercial skills to acquire ground in a competitive environment and to have enhanced competence in exploration technology applied to direct detection. Conceptual targeting plays a role only in selection of the best possible, yet affordable, ground at the district scale in Elephant Country. In contrast, the key driver for the First Mover (or Fast Follower) strategy is highcalibre conceptual targeting at the global to province scale (Figure 1) to recognise the geological opportunity in an immature terrain, although this will commonly be integrated with the political skills required to recognise increasing stability, and have lower risk,

Science of targeting

Figure 5 Year of discovery of porphyry copper gold deposits in Chile, illustrating that the new concepts or new technologies can rejuvenate discovery in a mature Terrain. Note that the earliest discoveries tend to be some of the largest. Source: WMC Resources 1999 company data.

in a developing country or one emerging from political or social instability. Thus, conceptual targeting plays a vital role in both strategies but at different scales.

DEVELOPMENT OF TARGETING MODELS

Targeting models are commonly subdivided into conceptual or process-based, and empirical models, but in reality the two model types are interrelated. Conceptual models are commonly based on data inducted from empirical patterns, and most empirical models are inuenced to some degree by conceptual criteria. The important general principles in developing targeting models are set out below. As developed further below, it is critical to recognise that different targeting parameters are important at different scales and to use them at the appropriate scale in targeting models. If targeting models use data from ore-formation process models (genetic models), it is essential that a critical component be dened as a proxy for the process that can be represented in commonly available exploration datasets. In other words, the critical component of the process must be able to be dened in spatial datasets such as those used to produce geological maps or aeromagnetic images. It is important that the datasets be of as uniform quality as possible so that the areas of superior data quality do not unduly inuence the targeting model, particularly at the province to district scale. The targeting model should also focus on those parameters that are essential to the presence of mineralisation and, as far as possible, discriminate them from other less-critical parameters, that are allowable but not essential. Empirical mineral occurrence data are clearly important to conrm or deny the existence of the appropriate parameters to produce the deposit type sought in exploration. However, it is important that minor mineral occurrences do not unduly inuence the development of the model.

A common weakness of many targeting models, particularly those of more academic derivation, is that they focus on prediction of the presence or absence of mineralisation of a particular deposit type rather than the probability of occurrence of large economically important ore systems. However, it is vital for the mineral industry that the models address factors that discriminate large from small systems. Again, this comes back to the scale of conceptual thinking, as discussed further below. It is noticeable at the global to province scale that the majority of signicant mineral deposits, particularly the world-class examples, have an association with major, deep-seated structures that are probably trans-lithospheric as well as trans-crustal in scale, as many also lie on, or near, lithospheric boundaries (Groves et al. 2005). This relationship appears to be independent of whether the deposit is syngenetic (either synmagmatic or synsedimentary) or epigenetic, or the particular deposit type. It is also apparent that a particular trans-lithospheric structure may control the distribution of more than one deposit type over multiple periods of mineralisation. An excellent example is provided by the so-called Carlin and Battle Mountain trends of Nevada, USA, where Eocene Carlin-type deposits are simply the most economic deposit type in a province of synsedimentary Au Zn Ba, porphyry Cu Au, epithermal Au Ag, disseminated Au and hot-spring Au Ag deposits that span the time range from Devonian to Holocene due to reactivation along major trans-lithospheric structures (Emsbo et al. in press). A most important consideration is that these controlling structures are normally not obvious at the scale of the deposit where most detailed academic research takes place. It is clear also that all signicant ore bodies are associated with a tectonothermal system which is orders of magnitude larger than the immediate deposit environment. Such a system may be manifested by major periods of crustal growth (e.g. orogenic-gold

J. M. A. Hronsky and D. I. Groves

structural data may be used to dene the most prospective province (B in Figure 6); and a greater variety of geological parameters (e.g. structural, basinal, lithostratigraphic, igneous and metamorphic) may be used to dene the most prospective district (C in Figure 6). The hierarchical approach is more generally applied in a First Mover strategy when the initial area of interest is initially extensive and/or the targeting group has to compile most of the key targeting themes themselves from primary data where there are poor spatial datasets, for example in developing countries. An important concept when targeting in such areas with sparse data is that of permissible parameters in that if there is no negative information on the presence of a key factor, it should be considered neutral in any decisionmaking process. The Venn-Diagram approach is most commonly used in areas of relatively high exploration maturity with good quality and relatively uniform data, and is hence normally linked to the Elephant Country strategy. It essentially views target identication as the process of locating areas where there is a conjunction of a number of critical parameters in the targeting model: the area of overlap of parameters D, E and F in Figure 6. This philosophical approach underpins the methodology of GIS prospectivity mapping (Agterberg 1974; BonhamCarter 1994; Brown et al. 2000), several examples of which are presented in this thematic issue.

deposits: Goldfarb et al. 2001), widespread magmatism of a specic age in a specic subduction environment (e.g. porphyry Cu Au deposits: Billa et al. 2004), or a particular type of basin-lling package in a specic structural setting (e.g. SEDEX deposits: Large et al. 2005). Although the genetic links may be somewhat equivocal, it is nonetheless vital to recognise the importance of the system concept (Wyborn et al. 1994) in developing robust targeting models. An important aspect is to recognise that the rst-order parameters in the targeting model may not be dened or even discussed in research papers on the deposit type because of the nature of most economic geology research.

TARGET IDENTIFICATION
Once a targeting model has been developed, it can then be applied to identify specic targets within a province or district. In order to achieve this, key targeting themes or parameters must be compiled as layers of information that represent key components of the targeting model and can be depicted spatially. For most ore deposit types that are targeted, these will comprise one or more layers from geodynamic, tectonic, structural, lithostratigraphic, and metamorphic and igneous petrology datasets, together with available data on known occurrences of the deposit type sought in the targeting exercise. There are two basic end-member approaches to the process of target identication: the Hierarchical and Venn-diagram systems (Figure 6). In practice, many targeting exercises will represent a hybrid between the two, because the hierarchical approach is commonly used from the global to province scale, whereas the Venn-diagram approach is more commonly used at the district scale. The hierarchical approach is based on the concept that most targeting models comprise a series of critical parameters that are manifested at different scales. Thus, geodynamic parameters may be used to identify the segment of a continent or country that is most prospective (A in Figure 6); tectonic and crustal-scale

TARGET RANKING
The process of target ranking is essentially an extension of the target identication process but is separated here for clarity and to emphasise its potential importance. Traditionally, target ranking has involved the assignment of scores to each of a suite of parameters considered essential to permissive, and then summing these scores to provide a total target score. Normally, the scores are weighted for the perceived relative importance of each targeting parameters, and perhaps for the degree of condence in the assignment of the score. More recently, however, an alternative approach has been proposed by workers such as Henley (1997) and Lord et al. (2001), who advocate a multiplicative probability-based approach similar to that used in the petroleum industry. The probability-based approach to target ranking is based on distilling the targeting model down to parameters that are the proxies of critical processes in the generation of the targeted deposit style. This approach is described in detail by Kreuzer et al. (in press). For example, epigenetic hydrothermal deposits can be described in a minerals system (Wyborn et al. 1994) as involving a source, uid conduit, trap and cap or outow system. In the probability-based approach, each of these processes must have operated, and each should be independent of the other. An example of such a system is shown in Figure 7 for an orogenic-gold system. In this case, the critical parameters that are the proxies for the process must be recognised and allocated to that part of the minerals system. An example showing the critical proxies for the critical

Figure 6 Schematic diagram illustrating the two endmember approaches to target denition: the hierarchical and Venn-diagram methodologies. The former is commonly used in immature terrains, whereas the latter is used in mature terrains where it forms the basis for most GIS-based prospectivity analyses.

Science of targeting
parts of an orogenic-gold system are shown in Table 1. This allocation of proxies or parameters to specic processes within the minerals system allows formulation of a ranking system that demands that critical proxies for every process must be present for an area to be prospective. The ranking system must give equal weight to the presence of each process, rather than to each parameter or proxy, and care must be taken that the parameters are not measuring the same part of the process and hence are overemphasised in the ranking procedure. A probability that the critical process operated in the minerals system is estimated, either

using 1.0 if it is proven to be present, 0 if it proves to be absent, or 0.5 if there are no data to make a decision, or using a fuzzy-logic system with ranking of favourability where more than one critical parameter or proxy represents one critical process in the system. There are a number of advantages to this approach. It clearly denes the critical processes in the targeting model and the equivalent parameters that proxy for those processes. It does not excessively penalise targets where one or more parameters that represent a critical process are permissive without denitive evidence that it is present. If a critical process (e.g. source, uid

Figure 7 Schematic diagram illustrating a minerals system model for orogenic-gold deposits showing source, uid conduit, deposit trap and cap or seal (adapted from Groves et al. 1998). The key parameters that are proxies for these critical processes are shown in Table 1.

Table 1 Mineral systems model for orogenic-gold deposits. Key parameter Proxies for parameter

Critical processThermal energy and ore-uid source Thinned lithosphere Short terrane history (Bierlein et al. 2006) Major crust-forming event Geochronological data Orogenic-gold mineralisation Known gold occurrences Critical processPlumbing uid systems Deep uid conduits Focused uid ow High-damage zone in lower order faults Critical processTrap (depositional) site Structural trap Rheological trap Chemical trap Critical processFluid seal (cap) Stratigraphic cap Structural cap Critical processOutow zone Fluid dispersion Crustal-scale shear zones preferably with lamprophyres High-strain shear zones in low-strain belts Jogs, thrust duplexes, fault intersections Locked-up anticline, thrust-tip Rheologically indexed rock typescontacts with high contrast Reactive rocks with high Fe or C Impermeable rocks over structurally permeable rocks (e.g. sedimentary cap) Impermeable thrust stacks Metal dispersion halos

The table shows the principle of critical processes and some of their key parameters and proxies which can be detected in geological maps or from geological or geophysical databases normally available to a targeting team in an exploration company. It is illustrative and is not intended to be a complete list of parameters and proxies at all scales. Adapted from Groves et al. (2000).

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J. M. A. Hronsky and D. I. Groves PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT AND FEEDBACK LOOPS

One of the major deciencies of currently practiced area selection is the general lack of follow-up to rigorously estimate how effective it has been in improving the probability of discovery of a large ore deposit. Such quantication of the targeting exercise and team performance is required to measure the degree of success, and hence provide a quality control that leads to improvement in the targeting process. Rigorous application of the probability-based approach, outlined above, is an important step towards this achievement but requires robust calibration with empirical case-history data. In reality, the exploration industry seldom allocates resources to post-mortems of targeting exercises, largely because of the transience of staff, particularly during boom periods, the competing lure of the next opportunity, and the relative difculty in accessing the relevant historical data. As a consequence, the industry has very little information on which are the most robust methodologies in exploration targeting. Case histories in the public domain are strongly biased towards those of successful exploration programs, and almost invariably credit success to a mixture of good teamwork, successful detection and serendipity, with little emphasis on targeting models and their value in the process (Australian Mineral Foundation 1997, 2001). However, if there are to be major improvements in targeting capability, there is an urgent need to employ better quantication of targeting performance. After targets are generated, it is vital that information obtained from testing the targets is fed back into the targeting model and supporting databases. This is particularly important in less-developed countries where information obtained from eld assessments of province-scale target areas may have a substantial impact on both the database and model. As exploration moves more under cover, targeting models become an essential tool to focus exploration, increase the geological probability that any individual targeted prospect will become an economic deposit, and hence reduce the risk:reward ratio.

conduit, trap or cap) is missing in the minerals system, the probability of success of that target is zero because one of the critical processes will rank 0 in the analysis. It is thus more likely to produce a more realistic and robust numerical separation between the scores for potential world-class targets and weaker targets than other methods. The methodology is also transparent and has a high scientic integrity. A weakness of the approach is that it is sensitive to the nature of the minerals system model that is developed and hence, in turn, sensitive to the choice of critical processes and their proxies in terms of key parameters for the targeting model. Minerals systems are inherently more complex than petroleum systems, where the three process steps of source transport trap can be applied universally. The key is to dene those key parameters that are essential for the development of a large ore deposit, while preserving some parameters that are permissive in case there are data gaps, particularly in immature terrains. In general, this approach is recommended because it is an effective and robust way of organising and interrogating data, it is an effective way of communicating the targeting outcome, and it allows for a consistent and transparent approach across multiple targeting exercises in difcult terrains. However, it can never be truly quantitative, because the number of critical processes and related key parameters is ultimately a somewhat arbitrary choice and hence affects the total probability; few of the key parameters are likely to be truly independent of one another, as it is necessary for the methodology; and it is erroneous to assume that lack of data equates to an equal probability of presence or absence of a key parameter in spatially heterogeneous datasets: it is statistically more likely to be absent. As in all scientic endeavours, the quality of the outcome will depend on the collective knowledge of the targeting team and the robustness of the targeting models they produce based on their understanding of the critical components of minerals systems for a variety of ore deposit types. The team should also recognise the common pitfalls in ranking that are independent of the quality of the targeting model employed. First, it is important that the ranking scheme is not biased toward mature exploration areas of greater data density and therefore excessively discriminates against areas with high potential endowment but limited data. This typically happens when too much emphasis is placed on known mineralisation without adequately considering its context in the total targeted terrain. Second, it is vital to separate model parameters from the data that were used to derive them. For example, the presence of magnetite-rich bodies may be a critical parameter in several mineral systems (e.g. hydrothermal iron ore, iron-oxide Cu Au or BIF-hosted orogenic-gold deposits), and may be recognised by the presence of magnetite and/or a magnetic anomaly and/or a gravity anomaly. However, it should be treated as a single key parameter, not three independent parameters (magnetite, magnetic anomaly, gravity anomaly) in the ranking process.

PROACTIVE CONCEPTUAL TARGETING VS REACTIVE TARGET EVALUATION

Pragmatically, there are two end-member approaches to acquiring exploration properties. The rst is essentially the process described above, involving compilation of databases over the area of interest, development of a targeting model, generation of targets, and proactive acquisition of ground over the highest ranked targets. The second is to focus on evaluating properties submitted by other parties, commonly junior explorers, followed by acquisition of the most prospective of those submitted. Commonly, the targeting process is only considered to be an integral part of the rst approach. However, this is somewhat of a misconception, since there has to be a logical mechanism to prioritise submittals. In order to robustly rank the submittals

Science of targeting

11

Figure 8 Summary of the targeting process from the business interface through developing the targeting model and spatial databases to dening and testing targets, with a subsequent feedback loop to improve the targeting model and information in the databases.

and capture value for the company, a superior approach to a submittal-based ground-acquisition program is to have previously completed a targeting exercise for the province or district of interest. In this way, any submitted property can be evaluated more effectively within the regional context, which largely controls the potential of the mineral systems, and hence the potential endowment of the submitted prospect, itself. Hence, all acquisitions should be based on a framework provided by the conceptual targeting process.

CONCLUSIONS
The targeting process discussed above is shown schematically as a ow sheet in Figure 8. Following business

decisions that relate to the individuality of the mining and/or exploration company, area selection is an essential part of the mineral supply process. Although, in the past, targeting success has been attributed commonly to serendipity or favourable organisational structure, world-class to giant ore deposits are predicted to be more difcult to discover as districts with shallow regolith became increasingly mature, and conceptual targeting will assume increasing importance in the future. This paper outlines the principles that should be applied in area selection so that it becomes a better understood, more effective, and more valued segment of exploration business. Targeting needs to be recognised in its own right as a scientic endeavour that integrates information from the various geoscience disciplines, translates critical processes and parameters from that

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J. M. A. Hronsky and D. I. Groves

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information into spatially registered data layers or themes, and interrogates those in terms of robust targeting models to produce at least semi-quantitative ranking of target areas at the global, province and district scale. The science of targeting should underpin all future exploration endeavours in order to reduce geological risk and provide more cost-effective project exploration using direct detection technologies and methodologies.

ACKNOWLEDEGMENTS
JMAH acknowledges many former colleagues in WMC Exploration Division and present colleagues at BHPBilliton, particularly Richard Schodde and Nicholas Hayward, for contributions to the concepts presented in this paper. DIG also acknowledges the benets of discussions with colleagues from Redstone Resources and Newmont, particularly Stephen Gardoll and Musie Gebre-Mariam, who have helped to bring targeting concepts into better focus. The authors both acknowledge helpful review comments by Mike Etheridge.

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Received 25 August 2006; accepted 28 April 2007