Michigan State University Department of Statistics STT 441 Spring 11 Exam 1 Name (Print): Name (Sign):

Closed book! No calculators, cell phones, computers or internetconnected devices allowed. 50 minutes. Max score of 100

1. (10pts) Dene a sample space as the collection of outcomes in an experiment. Consider the experiment where a two-sided coin is ipped and then a six-sided dice is rolled. In another universe, the experiments are conducted over and over until the following probabilities are determined: P[(H, 1)] = P[(H, 2)] = ... = P[(H, 6)] = P[(T, 1)] = P[(T, 2)] = ... = P[(T, 6)] =
1 9 1 12

Is P a probability measure in our universe? Why or why not? Please show that it satises all three properties of a probability measure if it is, or show which one(s) it breaks if it is not a probability measure. ANSWER: It is not a probability measure, as = {(H, 1), (H, 2), .., (H, 6), (T, 1), (T, 2), .., (T, 6)} but according to the data above, we have (1)

P[] = P[(H, 1)] + P[(H, 2)] + ... + P[(H, 6)] + P[(T, 1)] + P[(T, 2)] + ... + P[(T, 6)] 1 1 =6 +6 12 9 =1 (2)

2. (10pts) There are n socks in a drawer, 3 of which are red. What is the value of n if, when 2 of the socks are randomly chosen, the probability 1 that they are both red is 2 ? ANSWER: The number of socks is 4. We can see this by solving the equation 1 = 2 n=4 Alternately, if we have 4 socks in the drawer, any pairing of socks will leave one red with a non-red sock. So, there is a 50 50 chance of picking the pair with the non-red sock in it.
3 2 n 2

and so n(n 1) = 12

(3)

3. (20pts) Shortly after being put into service, some buses manufactured by a certain company developed cracks on the underside of the main frame. Suppose a particular city has 25 of these buses, and cracks have actually appeared in 8 of them. (a) How many ways are there to select a sample of 5 of these buses from the 25 for a thorough inspection? (b) How many ways can a sample of 5 of these buses contain exactly 4 with a crack? (c) If a sample of 5 buses is chosen at random, what is the probability that exactly 4 of the 5 will have visible cracks? (d) If the buses are selected as in part c.), what is the probability that at least 4 have visible cracks? ANSWER: (a) (b) (c)
25 5 8 4

17 1

(8)(17) 4 1 (25) 5 (8)(17) (8)(17) (d) 4 25 1 + 5 25 0 (5) (5)

4. (20pts) A company that manufactures video cameras produces a basic model and a deluxe model. Over the past year, 40 percent of the cameras sold have been the basic model. Of those buying the basic model, 30 percent have bought the extended warranty, whereas 50 percent of all deluxe purchases do so. If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended warranty, how likely is it that they have the basic model? ANSWER: Consider the events B = Basic model D = Deluxe model W = Warranty W c = No Warranty Then we have P[B] = 0.4 P[D] = 0.6 P[W | B] = 0.3 P[W | D] = 0.5 and so P[B | W ] = P[B W ] P[W ] P[W | B] P[B] = P[W | B] P[B] + P[W | D] P[D] (0.3)(0.4) = (0.3)(0.4) + (0.5)(0.6) 12 2 = = 42 7 (4)

(5)

5. (20pts) Please circle your answer below. No work needs to be shown to receive full credit. A true-false question is to be posed to a husband-wife team on a quiz show. Both the husband and the wife will independently give the correct answer with probability p. Which of the following is a better strategy for the couple? (a) Choose one of them and let that person answer the question. (b) Have them both consider the question, and then either they give the common answer if they agree or, if they disagree, ip a fair coin to determine which answer to give. (c) They have the same chance of winning, so either one. (d) Not enough information to decide. ANSWER: c.). Dene pa as the probability of strategy (a)winning, and pb as the probability of strategy (b) winning. Then

pa = p pb = P[W in | both correct] P[ both correct] + P[W in | one correct, choose correct ] P[one correct, choose correct] 1 = 1 p2 + 2 p (1 p) 2 =p (6)

6. (20pts) Suppose you are watching a best-of-three series, where a team has to win two games before its opponent does. Gamblers have determined that each time they play, Team A has a chance p of winning and Team B has a chance 1 p of winning. Assuming you have now started watching just after Team A has won the rst game, what is the chance it will win the series? ANSWER: The chance A will win the series is 2p p2 . This can be obtained via the solution of the points problem for n = 1, m = 2,

P1,2 =
1

2 k p (1p)2k = 2p(1p)+p2 = 2p2p2 +p2 = 2pp2 . k (7)

Or, we can simply draw out the scenarios where A wins the series. In this case, either A wins rst or it wins second to nish the series. Hence, the chance is p + p (1 p) = 2p p2 .