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Observation selection, future rate of natural disasters and fragility of our environment.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/8729933/-
Alexei Turchin,
Russian Transhumanist movement
Abstract:
The main idea of this article is not only that observation selection
leads to underestimation of future rate of natural disasters, but that our
environment is much more fragile to antropic influences (like overinflated
toy balloon), also because of observation selection, and so we should
much more carefully think about global warming and deep earth drilling.
The main idea of antropic principle (AP) is that our Universe has
qualities that allow existence of the observers. In particular this means that
global natural disasters that could prevent developing of intellectual life on
the Earth never happened here. This is true only for the past but not for the
future. So we cannot use information about frequency of global natural
disasters in the past for extrapolation it to the future, except some special
cases then we have additional information, as Circovic shows in his paper.
Therefore, an observer could find that all the important parameters for
his/her survival (sun, temperature, asteroid risk etc.) start altogether
inexplicably and quickly deteriorating – and possibly we could already find
the signs of this process. In a few words: The anthropic principle has
stopped to ‘defend’ humanity and we should take responsibility for our
survival. Moreover, as origination of intellectual life on the Earth is very rare
event it means that some critical parameters may lay near their bounds of
stability and small antropogenic influences could start catastrophic process
in this century. Also we must live in the period with higher rate of
catastrophes because small ones help evolution but this mean higher
probability of global catastrophe. (Think about many small pieces of a
broken comet and one large and check findings of Holocene Impact
Group).
Contents
Contents...........................................................................................................................................1
Introduction......................................................................................................................................2
1. Antropic principle. Effect of observation selection. Results of Bostrom and Tegmark.............2
2. Natural catastrophes...................................................................................................................11
3. Application of antropic principle to the analysis of frequency of natural catastrophes............15
1
4. Infringement of stability of the natural systems which are on the verge of balance, in
connection with human activity.....................................................................................................26
5. The conclusion ..........................................................................................................................28
Appendix. Density of observers in the Universe, frequency of catastrophes and antropic
principle.........................................................................................................................................30
The literature:.................................................................................................................................34
Introduction
The given work has been inspired by the following paragraph from article
Bostrom and Tegmark: « One might think that since life here on Earth has
survived for nearly 4 Gyr (Gigayears), such catastrophic events must be
extremely rare. Unfortunately, such an argument is flawed, giving us a false
sense of security. It fails to take into account the observation selection
effect that precludes any observer from observing anything other than that
their own species has survived up to the point where they make the
observation. Even if the frequency of cosmic catastrophes were very high,
we should still expect to find ourselves on a planet that had not yet been
destroyed. The fact that we are still alive does not even seem to rule out
the hypothesis that the average cosmic neighborhood is typically sterilized
by vacuum decay, say, every 10000 years, and that our own planet has just
been extremely lucky up until now. If this hypothesis were true, future
prospects would be bleak». [Bostrom, Tegmark, 2005]
2
«We are witnesses of processes of a certain sort because other
processes proceed without witnesses». [Зельманов, 1970].
In other words, from the fact that the mankind exists, follows, that
the Sun was a quiet star in first 5 billion years of its existence, till the
present moment. But from this in any way does not follow, how long it will
be quiet in the future.
On one of theories, the Big Bang from which started our Universe,
has occurred in the form of the process named «cosmological inflation»
which consisted that high-energy condition of primary vacuum – named
also false vacuum - has broken up, and has passed in ours low-energy
vacuum. However it is not known, whether is our vacuum is a condition with
the most lowest energy and if not may it break up again. For our Universe it
will mean the termination of existence. The vacuum which can break up
once again, is called metastable.
3
Bostrom and Тегмарк notice, that if probable frequency of such
event would be great enough – we will tell, time in 1 billion years, - that
hardly the modern Earth would be created so late, that is through 13.7
billion years from Big Bang as theoretically conditions for its formation have
developed early enough that it could arise on some billions years earlier.
Therefore rather later formation of the Earth says that cosmological
catastrophes which are leading to death of the Universes, are happen
seldom enough. Bostrom and Тегмарк deduce likelihood estimations for
such events. «We can exclude hypotheses, that T (the period between
catastrophes destroying the Universes) <2.5 Gyg from 95 % confidence,
and corresponding 99 % and 99.9 % confidence intervals make T> 1.6 and
T> 1.1 Gyg accordingly» [Bostrom, Tegmark, 2005].
Let's assume, one thousand persons play in a roulette, and for one
of them it is necessary two times number 36 successively will drop out, and
he wins the considerable sum of money. The winner can come to
conclusion that he possesses certain special abilities on the prediction of
loss of numbers in the roulette, and that further he will win also. Proceeding
from this assumption, he once again can put all won sum again on one
number, and, most likely, will lose. Its loss will be connected by that he has
given in to effect of sensation own selectness which has forced him to
overestimate subjective «lucky». However, if the player had the full
information on number of playing persons and trusted more to probability
theory, instead of to the subjective sensations, he could calculate, that the
probability of that one of thousand players will drop out two times
successively necessary number, is great enough, but it is insignificant for
three and more prizes successively.
4
In other words, for reception of the authentic forecast this player
should consider not only the results, but also number of other players which
have not reached a home straight.
In this article we will start with the assumption, that the real situation is
closer to the second point of view. (If the first point of view is true it is a
situation described in my article «Is SETI dangerous?»
http://www.scribd.com/doc/7428586/Is-SETI-Dangerous where possibility
is described when interstellar channels of radio broadcast can be used for
dispatch of descriptions of the hostile artificial intellect .)
The question on, where passes the border (on number of manned
planets) between these two hypotheses we will leave open. Probably even,
that one does not exclude another: for example, if habitable planets meet 1
time on billion stars pressure of frequency of catastrophes upon their future
life expectancy will be considerable, but never the less they can receive
signals from other civilisations which are in the same galaxy.)
5
stars habitable planets have not appeared. More in detail about the theory
of "the rare Earth” see [Ward, Brownlee, 2000].
However the majority of people are inclined to believe that such luck
will last in the future, using for this conclusion logical induction. As Gott
formula can be considered as mathematical expression of a such induction
(1 − f ) (1 + f )
T <t < T (1)
(1 + f ) (1 − f )
In our Galaxy is more than 100 billion stars, and people have not
found out any traces of activity of extraterrestrial civilisations. It allows to
assume, that Mankind is the first civilisation in our Galaxy (or the majority of
civilisations have not managed technologically to promote so to manage to
7
come into contact to mankind), and is possible, even in Local group of
galaxies. It allows to put forward a hypothesis that there is the certain factor
doing formation intelligent and technologically advanced life extremely
unusual occurrence. It is possible to tell that for today the mankind looks
like a civilisation which has won in a lottery where only one ticket for 100
billion is winning. It is approximately equivalent to luck in 36 toss of fair coin
in line would fails heads. If this game would occur in time in regular
intervals that, proceeding from age of the Earth in 4.5 billion the years,
every «coin tossing» would occur one time in 125 million years. In other
words, it would mean, that the population mean of preservation of the Earth
as suitable for intelligent life planet would make 125 million years.
9
In the field of the finance the theme considered by us is known
under the name «Survivorship bias». It is shown that in the statistics are
considered only those mutual funds which have lived till the end of the
accounting period so, have good results, and the funds that had bad results
and were ruined, are not considered. It allows funds to overestimate their
efficiency as the potential client does not know, from what initial number of
funds is the given fund, and how catastropheal was its survived. The bigger
the number of funds was lost, the more is chance, that the given fund has
survived casually, instead of for the account of qualitative management.
Elton et al [Elton, Gruber, and Blake, 1996] have calculated that the total
contribution of this error to the estimation of all funds in the USA makes 0.9
percent a year, that it is a lot of if to compare it not to 100 percent, but to
profitableness of actions or the securities, equal now approximately 4-6
percent.
2. Natural catastrophes
11
• If the expert considers something impossible, he is mistaken
more likely, than other expert who considers something
possible. Because judgement about impossibility is much more
strong and enough one exception to deny it.
• The value judgment which has been not supported with exact
calculations, is usually erroneous on approximately logarithmic
scale, for example, if somebody asserts, that event has
chance one to ten it is right in 60 percent of cases and if he
asserts, that chances make one to one million it is right with
probability in 90 percent. See more in detail about errors of
experts in an estimation of risks article Judkovsky [Yudkowsky,
2007].
For all history of the Earth still never happens such catastrophe
which would make impossible occurrence of the intelligent life on the Earth.
(Thus we do not consider here is minimum necessary level of catastrophes
which was necessary for advancement of evolutionary process, for
example, for overthrow of dinosaurs and blossoming of mammals, – see in
more detailed about it at Circovic 2007)
Таб.1.
16
40-41 36,79
45-46 32,27
50-51 27,94
55-56 23,85
60-61 20,02
65-66 16,51
70-71 13,32
75-76 10,48
80-81 7,98
85-86 5,96
90-91 4,43
95-96 3,34
100-101 2,73
105-106 2,38
109-110 2,2
Further information is not
present.
In this table for us important following:
- After age in 100 years the population mean of the next years of life
does not almost vary and slowly decreases around 2.5 years. It does not
prevent to live to some confirmed long-livers till 115 years. (Long-livers of
the USA, whence this statistics thus mean. In other countries and the
people there can be other statistics which could be more stretched in time,
for the account of local genetic and ecological features, but less reliable as
a source of data.)
17
Middle age of any person will be equal approximately to half of full
average age – under our table it a little less than 40 years. (The distant tail
of the table in which there are long-livers, does not influence almost on a
middle choice as there there are not enough people) For it expected
duration of the rest of a life will make an order of 36 years.
This time shift also is that shift which I mean under effect of
observation selection with reference to natural catastrophes.
In this table we can reject data of those cells which speak about
immediate eruption now because it does not occur. And now we will
choose those cells, which give the least terms to define the most
dangerous scenarios. At once it is visible, that the smallest values longest
appear in the third column of the table corresponding to mixed distribution,
similar to human death rate.
1b) All catastrophes have casual character. In this case the end
of calm period will be smoother. However, we can observe that some
parameters have already started to deteriorate, but has not yet reached
beyond the permissible boundaries - such as the Earth began an era of
glaciation or what Sun's luminosity has increased.
25
On the other hand, periods of glaciation contribute to the accumulation of
methane which release can lead to the powerful greenhouse effect.
Extreme form of shown outlook would be that the world would have
died immediately after would be open anthropic principle. And this may be
so, if the wording of the doomsday argument of Leslie-Carter, where as a
referent class serves all the people who know about the DA. And this set is
very little.
Much more hypothetical is possibility of that influence of the man will result
in destruction of any celestial bodies in Solar system. Among possible
variants – detonation of thermonuclear fuel (deiterium) in planets-giants,
explosions of the ionised ice in their companions, infringement of the
27
debugged balance of orbits of asteroids. I give the detailed review of these
hypothetical scenarios in article «Giant planets
ignition».http://www.scribd.com/doc/8299748/Giant-planets-ignition
5. The conclusion
28
Frightening acknowledgement of the hypothesis that we, most likely,
live in the end of the period of stability of natural processes, is article
«Cycles of a variety of the paleontologic rests» of R.Rod and R.Muller in
Nature (Rohde Robert A. And Muller Richard A. Cycles in fossil diversity. NATURE,
VOL 434, 10 MARCH 2005 http://muller.lbl.gov/papers/Rohde-Muller-Nature.pdf)
about cycle detection вымираний live beings with the period 62 (+/-3
million years) – as from last extinction has passed just 65 million years.
That is time of the next cyclic event of extinction is long time overdue.
We will notice also, that if the offered hypothesis about the role of
observation selection in underestimations of frequency of global
catastrophes is true, it means, that intelligent life on the Earth is extremely
unusual occurrence in the Universe, and we are alone in the observable
Universe with high probability. In this case we cannot be afraid of
extraterrestrial intrusion, and also we cannot do any conclusions about
frequency of self-destruction of the advanced civilisations in connection
with Fermi's paradox (space silence). As a result net the contribution of the
stated hypothesis to our estimation of probability of the human survival can
be positive!
Among all this set there are such Universes, which suit for
occurrence of two (or more) essentially different kinds of life and
intelligence, for example, based on carbon, and based on magnetic fields in
crowns of stars. It is clear, that such "multivital" Universes demand much
more thin selection of parametres (if at all are possible). Hence, the share
of the multivital Universes is less than share of the Universes with one type
of possible life approximately in as much time, in how many itself Х is less
than number of all possible Universes. That is on several tens of orders of
magnitude. From here we can conclude that any intelligent life in our
30
Universe will begin with the live matter based on carbon, about probability
100 … 000 to 1. That is it is possible not to expect to meet intelligent stars,
beings on fluorine etc.
However the same size can be chosen and as the value of the
expected density of civilisations if to consider a layer in spherical area of
phase space of the Universes considered by us with the thickness
corresponding to concentration of civilisations in 1 to 10е28-10е30. This
layer will repeatedly surpass in quantity of civilisations both of internal area
of sphere, and of external.
Example: In the Sun centre its density is in 150 times more, than the
average density of the Sun, however on the Sun centre is concentrated
only 1 % of its weight. The most part of weight of the Sun is not in its
centre, and not in its atmosphere, but in the middle layer.
The second example: the man has arisen on the Earth not instantly,
and by long selection from different forms. That I could write these lines,
billions billion live beings should be eliminated. That is I am one of 10 ** 20
beings which did not become intelligent. Precisely as well the Sun is one on
10**20 to10**30 stars at which the intelligent life in this Universe has
developed, and the others settle out.
33
On the other hand, the divergence of parametres of an inhabitancy
is a gradual process. And if we can already see now some signs of the
beginning of this process it is still far before its end.
Further, we yet have not considered in our calculations the fact that
the longer the stability period, the more strongly is the subsequent
instability. For example, under Hooke law we know, that the force
necessary for a stretching of a spring, grows linearly, and its energy – is
proportional to a stretching square. And this energy will be allocated, if the
spring tears. Hence, the period which was too quiet concerning natural
catastrophes, can end with very big catastrophe.
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34
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