Temperature

Janice M. Lough
Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, Queensland 4810
Lough, JM (2009) Temperature. In A Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia 2009 (Eds. E.S. Poloczanska, A.J. Hobday and A.J. Richardson), NCCARF Publication 05/09, ISBN 978-1-921609-03-9. Author email: J.Lough@aims.gov.au

Summary: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the waters surrounding Australia

have significantly warmed since the early 20th century (+0.7C comparing 1910-29 with 1989-2008). The rate of warming is similar to that for global average land and sea temperatures and less than for air temperatures over Australia (+0.8C). All global and regional temperatures show an acceleration in the rate of warming since the middle of the 20th century; for Australian SSTs the rate of warming was 0.08C/decade from 1910-2008 and 0.11C/decade from 1950-2008. 1998 was the warmest year for Australian average SSTs and 6 of the 10 warmest years have occurred in the most recent 10 years (based on data back to 1910). There are seasonal and spatial variations in the magnitude of SST warming around Australia, with greatest rates off the southwest and southeast coasts. Evidence for significant warming of Australian waters is supported by observational data from both large-scale compilations of SSTs and in situ monitoring sites. By the 2030s SSTs are projected to be ~1C warmer (relative to 1980-1999) around Australia, with slightly less warming to the south of the continent. By the 2070s, SSTs are projected to be between 1.53.0C warmer with slightly less warming to the south of the continent and greatest warming east/northeast of Tasmania.

Introduction
Human activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Forster et al. 2007). The clearest expression of the impact of these changes in radiative forcing of the global climate system is observational evidence of warming of air and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the IPCC-4AR concluded that most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. (Trenberth et al. 2007). Global climate model projections indicate that warming of air and temperatures will continue through the end of this century. Observed warming of the oceans is also penetrating below the surface (Barnett et al. 2005). The magnitude of future warming will vary, particularly towards the end of this century, according to the mitigation strategies undertaken and thus, whether we follow a high or low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Meehl et al. 2007). Unfortunately, we are currently tracking above the high emission SRESA2 (business as usual with CO2 concentrations reaching ~750-

Lough 2009 800ppm by the end of the 21st century) scenario (e.g. Canadell et al. 2007; Raupach et al. 2007). Here, we examine the evidence for warming of Australias marine waters and compare these observed changes to those over land and global and hemispheric averages. Projections of future warming are then considered.

Observed Impacts
Understanding natural climate variability and detecting changes in average climate depends upon long, homogeneous and reliable observations. Australia and its marine waters have relatively good observational records for this purpose (e.g. Nicholls et al. 2006). Here we make use of the following regional and global data sets which are available through 2008 and anomalies are calculated with respect to the 1961-1990 base period. All series are readily available and regularly updated, so their use will ensure continuity with future Marine Climate Report Cards: Seasonal and annual surface temperature trend maps and time series from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology from 1900 (BOM; http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/). The SST data used by BOM are the NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature o (NOAA_ERSST_V2) data set providing monthly values for 2 -degree boxes (Smith and Reynolds 2003, 2004; http://www.cdc.noaa.gov). These data are very similar (e.g. Kleypas et al. 2008; though see also Caputi et al. 2009) to the other main compilation of global SSTs, HADSST2 (Rayner et al. 2003, 2006). Time series of Australia average annual gridded air temperatures anomalies from 1910 produced by BOM based on high-quality instrumental observations (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/). Global and Southern Hemisphere average annual land and sea temperature anomalies from 1850 (HadCRUTv3 from the Climatic Research Unit, UK (Jones et al. 1999; Rayner et al. 2003; Brohan et al. 2006 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/). Southern Hemisphere average annual SST anomalies from 1850 (Rayner et al. 2003, 2006, HADSST2 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/).

Average annual SSTs vary across 15oC between Australias northern and southern coasts (Figure 1a). Highest temperatures (>28oC) extend around the top third of the continent in summer (Figure 1b) and coolest temperatures (<20oC) around the bottom third of the continent in winter (Figure 1c). These are the average temperatures and seasonal ranges to which marine organisms are presently accustomed (though these averages will also contain a component of global warming see below).

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Temperature

Figure 1. Average SSTs, 1961-1990 for a) annual, b) summer and c) winter. (Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology). http://www.bom.gov.au/cgibin/climate/change/averagemaps.cgi?map=sst&season=0112).

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Lough 2009 Observed changes were examined for two periods: 1910-2008 - for which all data sets are available and 1950-2008 the recent period of accelerated global warming (Trenberth et al. 2007). Evidence for changes was examined though linear trend analyses and, because linear trend analyses can be distorted by start and end year values, we also compared temperature differences between two, 20-year periods (1989-2008 and either 1910-1929 or 1950-1969). Global, hemispheric and Australian region land and sea temperatures are all significantly warmer than at the beginning of the 20th century (Figure 2, Table 1). The rate of warming of Australian region SSTs is comparable to the global and hemispheric averages whereas warming of Australian air temperatures is both greater than surrounding waters and greater than the hemispheric and global averages. The rate of warming of all series has also increased in the period since 1950. This observed warming is now clearly attributable to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations both globally (Trenberth et al. 2007) and across Australia (Karoly and Braganza 2005).
Table 1. Comparisons of annual air and SST changes for Australian with global and hemispheric averages for 1910-2008 and 1950-2008. All trends and temperature differences significant at 5% level.
1910-2008 Series 20-yr diff
o

1950-2008 20-yr diff

o o

Trend C/decade

C2

Trend C/decade

2008 rank

Warmest year

C1

# top 10 warmest years4

OZ SST

0.65

0.08

0.43

0.11

12

1998

OZ air T

0.76

0.10

0.63

0.17

14

2005

Global air & SST

0.67

0.07

0.45

0.12

10

1998

SH air SST

and

0.62

0.07

0.45

0.11

14

1998

SH SST

0.62

0.07

0.45

0.12

14

1998

1 2 3 4

temperature difference (1989-2008)-(1910-1929) temperature difference (1989-2008)-(1950-1969) rank of 2008 in 99-year record, 1910-2008 number top 10 ranked years within period 1910-2008 occurring within most recent 10-year period, 1999-2008

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Temperature

Figure 2: Annual temperature anomalies (from 1961-1990), 1910-2008 for a) global land and sea temperatures, b) Australian land air temperatures and c) Australian region SSTs. Thick line is 10-year Gaussian filter emphasising decadal variability and dashed line is linear trend (note different temperature scales).

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Lough 2009 The Australian annual average SST series disguises spatial and seasonal variations in the observed rates of recent warming (Figure 3, Table 2). The rate of warming has been greatest off the southwest and southeast Australian coasts. Southeast coast warming has been greatest in summer and winter, whereas off the southwest coast, warming has been greater in autumn and winter. This observational evidence for warming is also supported by several more regionally-specific studies for the Australian region. Using a rare, long-term in situ observational record from Maria Island off the east coast of Tasmania, Ridgway (2007) found evidence of warming (0.23oC/decade, 1944-2002) suggesting that the East Australian Current was penetrating further south. For the period 1955-1988, Holbrook and Bindoff (1997) found the top 100m was warming by 0.15oC/decade east of Tasmania. Along the southwestern Australian coast, Pearce and Feng (2007) demonstrated, importantly, that in situ coastal temperature measurements matched global SST compilations. They also noted significant warming of the Indian Ocean (1951-2004), as did Alory et al. (2007; 1960-1999) that was greatest along the southwest coast of Australia (~0.20oC/decade) with recent rates (1985-2004) of ~0.23-0.34oC/decade (c.f. Table 2). Greater warming of autumn and winter SSTs (~0.20-0.35oC/decade) compared to spring and summer (<~0.10oC/decade) off southwest Australia was found between the 1950s and 2000s (Caputi et al. 2009). These seasonal differences in warming rates have resulted in delayed timing of annual maximum and minimum SSTs. Rates of warming have been found to be similar along tropical Australian northwest and northeast coasts (1950-2007) of ~0.11oc/decade with warming of winter minimum SSTs greater than for summer maximum SSTs and the magnitude of the warming increasing with latitude (Lough 2008). These results also suggested that there have, already, been significant southward shifts in climate zones (as defined by annual average SSTs) along both Australian coastlines.
Table 2. Linear trends for Australian SST regions oC/decade and different seasons over periods 1950-2008 (black) and 1980-2008 (blue). All trends significant unless indicated (ns).

Region Northern tropics Southern region Coral Sea Tasman Sea NW SW

Annual 0.11 0.14 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.18 0.08 0.17 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.07 ns

Summer 0.11 0.15 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.16 0.07 0.14 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.08 ns

Autumn 0.12 0.13 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.18 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.09 ns 0.14 0.08 ns

Winter 0.11 0.14 0.11 0.12 0.10 0.19 0.09 0.19 0.12 0.09 0.16 0.11

Spring 0.11 0.14 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.20 0.08 0.16 0.11 0.08 ns 0.13 0.04 ns 6

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Temperature

Figure 3: Linear SST trend oC/decade 1950-2008 for a) annual, b) summer and c) autumn, d) winter and e) spring. (Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology, http://www.bom.gov.au/cgibin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi?map=sst&area=aus&season=0112&period=1950).

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Lough 2009

Potential impacts by the 2030s and 2100s

Temperatures in the Australian region are projected very likely to continue to warm through the 21st century with a magnitude comparable to the global average. The land area is projected to warm more than the surrounding ocean with slightly less warming in coastal regions and Tasmania (Christensen et al. 2007; Suppiah et al. 2007). Northern Australia (north of 30oS) could be 3.0oC warmer and southern Australia (south of 30oS) could be 2.6oC warmer by the end of the 21st century. These projections are based on multi-model ensembles which can cancel out some of the differences in different model projections (due to different parameterization schemes). There is some debate at present as to whether this approach provides the most robust projections for regionally-specific climate change projections (Perkins and Pitman, 2009; Pierce et al. 2009; Shukla et al. 2009). Spatial patterns of median (50th percentile) annual SST projections for the high emissions scenario (CSIRO/BOM, 2007) suggest that by the 2030s Australian waters could be up to 1oC warmer around most of the continent, but with slightly less warming in the southern region. A similar pattern is found for the 2070s with warming of 2.0-2.5oCaround much of Australia, slightly less warming (1.5-2.0oC) in the southern region and a maximum of 2.5-3.0oC east/northeast of Tasmania (Figure 4). The uncertainty in the potential upper and lower bounds of these projections is illustrated by the 90th and 10th percentiles from the spread of models used. Future warming of Australian seas with increasing greenhouse gases will not be monotonic. Regional temperatures will continue to be modulated (as evident in the instrumental records over the past century, Figure 2) by sources of inter-annual and decadal climate variability such as El Nio-Southern Oscillation events (see ENSO section) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

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Temperature

Figure 4: Projected annual SST warming (relative to 1980-1999 base period) for the A1F1 high emissions scenario for a) 2030 and b) 2070. From CSIRO/BOM (2007).

Key Points
Global temperature is tracking model projections of the high-end (worst-case) greenhouse gas emission scenario Australian air temperatures are warming at a rate greater than the global average Australian sea surface temperatures are warming at a rate comparable to the global average The greatest rate of warming for Australia is off the southwest and southeast Australian coasts Temperatures are very likely to continue warming over the coming century 2030, and 2.0-2.5C warmer by 2070.

In general, Australian sea surface temperatures could be up to 1C warmer by

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Lough 2009

Confidence Assessments Observed Impacts

There is HIGH confidence from observational records that SSTs around Australian have significantly warmed over the past century and that the rate of warming is accelerating. There is a HIGH level of agreement from different data sets that warming is occurring. There is HIGH Confidence for warming of Australian waters. Potential impacts by the 2030s and 2100s There is HIGH confidence from theory and models that Australian waters will continue to warm through the 21st century and MEDIUM Confidence in seasonal and regional variations in the magnitude of future warming. Projecting these details will rely on improving climate models, particularly, for tropical ocean regions and improved modelling of how regional ocean circulation patterns will change, especially the Leeuwin and East Australian Currents. There is a HIGH level of agreement from different global and regional climate models that warming will continue. There is HIGH confidence that warming of Australian waters will continue.

Summary of Confidence Assessment for Observed and Future Changes in Australian Waters Observed Changes Amount of Evidence Degree of Consensus Confidence Level High High High Future Changes Medium- High High High

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Temperature

Adaptation Responses
Drastic cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions are necessary to curtail the magnitude of warming over the 21st century of Australian waters. Even with such commitments, due to inertia in the climate system, warming will continue over the 21st century (e.g. Meehl et al. 2005; Wigely 2005).

Knowledge Gaps
Improved understanding and incorporation of the effects of natural and anthropogenic (e.g. Asian dust cloud) aerosols on Australian climate projections (Rotstayn et al. 2009). Improved understanding of ocean processes and heat fluxes through application of more recent high-resolution satellite and observational databases to understand causes of ocean climate changes and how, for example, the incidence of extreme events (e.g. high SSTs and coral bleaching) relates to global and regional warming (e.g. Weller et al. 2008; Schiller et al. 2009) and the potential for forecasting of extreme SST conditions (e.g. Spillman and Alves 2009). Ongoing commitment to maintaining critical in situ ocean climate observations. Examples include Maria Island observations (Ridgway 2007), rock lobster monitoring sites off Western Australia (e.g. Pearce and Feng 2007; Caputi et al. 2009) and automatic weather stations (e.g. AIMS stations, Great Barrier Reef water temperature logger program, Lough et al. in press). These provide important verification for longer-term but less spatially detailed datasets, ground-truthing of satellite observations and linking the physical and biological components of the marine environment at scales relevant to the physiological processes of marine organisms. Ongoing commitment to maintaining high-quality remote sensing and oceanic observing systems for Australian waters (e.g. through the Integrated Marine Ocean Observing System, http://www.imos.org.au/) and integration of these newer products with longer-term data sets.

Further Information
www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ www.aims.gov.au www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/

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Lough 2009

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